Great news! Looks like Qantas will bounce back nicely!
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Great news! Looks like Qantas will bounce back nicely!
Excerpt from the Australian 17th December
Qantas flying high after Covid: analysts
Qantas will emerge from the pandemic with higher earnings than before Covid-19, according to equities analysts at Macquarie.
In a note following the airline’s investor update on Thursday, the investment bank’s research team said Qantas had become “a structurally better business, considering cost-out and cash generation will continue to reduce debt levels, also supported by recent land-sale proceeds”.
Despite the gradual easing of international travel restrictions, the analysts expect the airline to only recover to 90 per cent of pre-pandemic flight capacity in the 2023-24 financial year.
“We continue to push the rerating thesis, considering the improving outlook and structural business improvements that have been made through COVID – this will eventually support higher profitability,” the note reads.
“Whilst we are positive ... the high operating leverage within the business, and ... delays in easing travel restrictions across both domestic/international could derail the thesis. “
In the update, Qantas said domestic capacity was expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2 per cent by early next year and 17 per cent in the three months to June 30, 2022.
Delivering the update, Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said the airline would lodge its biggest aircraft order with European manufacturer Airbus.
A fleet of 134 A320neo and A220 jets will replace Qantas’s existing domestic Boeing 737s and 717s over the next decade.
But the airline also unveiled an expected loss in excess of $1.1bn for the first half of the 2022 financial year due to the crippling of travel by the pandemic.
The last six months had been the worst of the pandemic for the company, Mr Joyce said, with Qantas and Jetstar reduced to just 18 per cent of earlier levels.
“We think by April Jetstar will be back to 120 per cent and Qantas will be around 115 per cent, and by June international flying will be up around 50 per cent,” he said.
UBS analyst Andrew Fromyhr said current financial year earnings were less important for Qantas than expectations for the state of the market after recovery.
“Today’s commentary on Qantas’s liquidity position in our view confirms that the upside in Qantas is a ‘when’ not an ‘if’ story,” Mr Fromyhr wrote.
“Overall the stock is largely in wait and see mode, as we watch how demand comes back with open borders,” Citi’s Samuel Seow wrote to his clients.
“Nevertheless we see a few factors that skew towards a positive stance on the stock.
“Early website traffic suggests a bounce-back from Omicron fears, while planned capacity remains strong.
“Additionally at these levels we largely think international is not priced in.”
Qantas flying high after Covid: analysts
Qantas will emerge from the pandemic with higher earnings than before Covid-19, according to equities analysts at Macquarie.
In a note following the airline’s investor update on Thursday, the investment bank’s research team said Qantas had become “a structurally better business, considering cost-out and cash generation will continue to reduce debt levels, also supported by recent land-sale proceeds”.
Despite the gradual easing of international travel restrictions, the analysts expect the airline to only recover to 90 per cent of pre-pandemic flight capacity in the 2023-24 financial year.
“We continue to push the rerating thesis, considering the improving outlook and structural business improvements that have been made through COVID – this will eventually support higher profitability,” the note reads.
“Whilst we are positive ... the high operating leverage within the business, and ... delays in easing travel restrictions across both domestic/international could derail the thesis. “
In the update, Qantas said domestic capacity was expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2 per cent by early next year and 17 per cent in the three months to June 30, 2022.
Delivering the update, Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said the airline would lodge its biggest aircraft order with European manufacturer Airbus.
A fleet of 134 A320neo and A220 jets will replace Qantas’s existing domestic Boeing 737s and 717s over the next decade.
But the airline also unveiled an expected loss in excess of $1.1bn for the first half of the 2022 financial year due to the crippling of travel by the pandemic.
The last six months had been the worst of the pandemic for the company, Mr Joyce said, with Qantas and Jetstar reduced to just 18 per cent of earlier levels.
“We think by April Jetstar will be back to 120 per cent and Qantas will be around 115 per cent, and by June international flying will be up around 50 per cent,” he said.
UBS analyst Andrew Fromyhr said current financial year earnings were less important for Qantas than expectations for the state of the market after recovery.
“Today’s commentary on Qantas’s liquidity position in our view confirms that the upside in Qantas is a ‘when’ not an ‘if’ story,” Mr Fromyhr wrote.
“Overall the stock is largely in wait and see mode, as we watch how demand comes back with open borders,” Citi’s Samuel Seow wrote to his clients.
“Nevertheless we see a few factors that skew towards a positive stance on the stock.
“Early website traffic suggests a bounce-back from Omicron fears, while planned capacity remains strong.
“Additionally at these levels we largely think international is not priced in.”
Probably a bit of reality in article. Reality is that QF aren’t potentially financially unstable in comparison to their domestic competitors.
From a customer perspective, my preference is to fly QF or secondly one of their subsidiaries all the time regardless of the cost. 99% of the time they are a lot cheaper than their competitors anyway.
From a customer perspective, my preference is to fly QF or secondly one of their subsidiaries all the time regardless of the cost. 99% of the time they are a lot cheaper than their competitors anyway.
Like Duck Pilot, I too have shares/a vested interest in QF too, so fully agree 100% of the time they are the best, cheapest, fastest and most generous airline. Fly Qantas
*And that’s why it’s called that.
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QANTAS can get stuffed. It should be allowed to fail like any other private enterprise business. There will always be another company come along to replace a failed one. Just look at the history of airlines since deregulation. Are we a socialist economy or a capitalist economy?
Easy to forget that Qantas employees contribute hundreds of millions of tax dollars per annum to the commonwealth*And the company hundreds of millions more
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-s...0180215-h0w44g
QANTAS can get stuffed. It should be allowed to fail like any other private enterprise business. There will always be another company come along to replace a failed one. Just look at the history of airlines since deregulation. Are we a socialist economy or a capitalist economy?
To quote Homer Simpson “people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that”
Of course we all want to see intl and domestic numbers bounce back but these are some damn bold a$$ predictions to be making right now and A LOT needs to change for it to have any chance of coming remotely true. Can’t speak for anyone else but the domestic terminals I’ve been in are virtually ghost towns and loads to match, there is next to no confidence or desire to travel by most Aussies and who can blame them.
Further, we don’t have any data yet to even give the slightest indication of possible international travel numbers given the border is closed to all but Australian citizens and residents. Do we even know tourists of any significant number want to travel down under in the near future? The damage done to Australia’s reputation by constant and ever changing border closures/restrictions at short notice will take some time to be undone.
Point being, maybe it will all be sunshine and rainbows coming up…but it probably won’t. Unless state premiers are giving away secret info to Alan about their plans to drop all testing/mask/isolation/other requirements to enter I personally am still expecting to see all demand very heavily suppressed for quite some time yet. The effects of COVID, trust in the system and fear associated with the virus ain’t gonna vanish that fast, folks!
Of course we all want to see intl and domestic numbers bounce back but these are some damn bold a$$ predictions to be making right now and A LOT needs to change for it to have any chance of coming remotely true. Can’t speak for anyone else but the domestic terminals I’ve been in are virtually ghost towns and loads to match, there is next to no confidence or desire to travel by most Aussies and who can blame them.
Further, we don’t have any data yet to even give the slightest indication of possible international travel numbers given the border is closed to all but Australian citizens and residents. Do we even know tourists of any significant number want to travel down under in the near future? The damage done to Australia’s reputation by constant and ever changing border closures/restrictions at short notice will take some time to be undone.
Point being, maybe it will all be sunshine and rainbows coming up…but it probably won’t. Unless state premiers are giving away secret info to Alan about their plans to drop all testing/mask/isolation/other requirements to enter I personally am still expecting to see all demand very heavily suppressed for quite some time yet. The effects of COVID, trust in the system and fear associated with the virus ain’t gonna vanish that fast, folks!
EVERY Airline in the world has had support of some kind, Air NZ has had $1.5 billion of Government money ‘loaned’ to it and about $120 million in direct subsidies to fly freight. Virgin Australia was for all money bankrupt and has had capital pumped in by Bain with hundreds of millions in debt just simply written off. Regional airlines were subsidised with Government paid flying, BA had 80% of it wage bill paid by the Government and continues to get that support. Fact of the matter is it is in all of our interests for Qantas AND Virgin to emerge from this intact as there will be huge opportunities in play due to pent up travel demand.
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EVERY Airline in the world has had support of some kind, Air NZ has had $1.5 billion of Government money ‘loaned’ to it and about $120 million in direct subsidies to fly freight. Virgin Australia was for all money bankrupt and has had capital pumped in by Bain with hundreds of millions in debt just simply written off. Regional airlines were subsidised with Government paid flying, BA had 80% of it wage bill paid by the Government and continues to get that support. Fact of the matter is it is in all of our interests for Qantas AND Virgin to emerge from this intact as there will be huge opportunities in play due to pent up travel demand.
The service is better at Virgin. They have matched RexJet in pricing, best offer going around atm. I don’t even bother with Standby stuff at those prices.
Has Alan asked his employees directly in a town hall to go out and talk up QF? (in the same way he asked them to all whinge publicly to the fed gov to stop other airlines being helped when the first wave hit).
This thread is utterly bizarre
This thread is utterly bizarre
Last edited by TimmyTee; 27th Dec 2021 at 19:14.
Couldn't give a crap about Qantas and anyone that does usually works for them now or wants to in the future.
Refusing to refund people their money over covid and the forever outsourcing everything they can will come back to bite them.
Refusing to refund people their money over covid and the forever outsourcing everything they can will come back to bite them.
Go and be a Qantas fan boy somewhere else thanks.