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Rapid Spread of Covid-19 cause.

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Rapid Spread of Covid-19 cause.

Old 29th Jun 2020, 09:31
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Originally Posted by RodH View Post
Blackout. Yes, it's a shame we just cant make a simple observation without being hammered.
I have been in aviation for 50 years and went through 2 airline collapses , lost all of my savings through the GFC so I do know how they feel and I truly understand their hurt but that's no reason to carry on like some are.
I love aviation and it's still a very big part of my life.
This horrible Covid-19 has wreaked havoc in our world and hopefully it will all be over before too long and Aviation gets back on it's feet stronger than ever.
You may feel you are being hammered but you made a simple observation. None of it is simple. Simple can be solved quickly. Starting a thread then complaining is a bit daft, when there have been threads running since January indicating clearly that C-19 is far from simple, will get blasted.

Most of the time PPRuNe is 'read only'. Some times it's fun to throw an alternative view into the mix and see what happens. If you do, don't expect to be treated gently. That's half the fun. The other half gets you thinking about the alternatives to one's own long held views. Jetblast has an amazing spectrum and a bit of aviation for me. Been here close to 20 years I think. Learnt a lot. Still learning.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 09:34
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When someone says "There's not much of a doubt about it" that's when I think. Have you bothered to check? Seriously. At one stage there wasn't much of a doubt about the earth being flat, smokes not causing cancer, or WMD in Iraq either.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 10:03
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How hard is it for everyone to not understand that I have made a thread of just how quickly this virus has spread so rapidly world wide because of human kinds advance in technology.
That's all there is to it!
It's not a blame game just a simple fact.
Sure we all know why has occurred so quickly this but can't I just make a comment about it without so many getting rather annoyed?
Obviously not!
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 10:20
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Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
Quite possible it was quicker as each ship would have had all its occupants infected by the time it arrived. Flights are short and confined, with a low infection risk of hours not days.
Incorrect - a causal factor in the rapid spread of Covid-19 was due to the increased viral shedding early in the illness while the infected party was asymptomatic, this is very different behaviour to SARS-Cov-1 and MERS. Based on this a long sea journey, whilst allowing transmission within a cohort of passengers in the confines of the vessel, would also allow symptoms to develop and make it obvious as to whether quarantine was required prior to arrival at port.

Air travel played a massive part in being a vector for the passage of infected parties and the spread of the disease internationals, however the real issues arose intra-nationally when governments failed to control the spread. The inability of public health bodies at a national level to contain outbreaks was just as much to blame if not more so than the ability of humans to rapidly transit around the planet. Epidemiology is a complex science and to lay the blame concerning the spread of Covid-19 purely on the aviation industry is lacking in insight and common sense.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 10:52
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Originally Posted by RodH View Post
Yes, it's a shame we just cant make a simple observation without being hammered.
Originally Posted by RodH View Post
That's all there is to it!
But why a whole thread dedicated to a simple observation? Were you looking for a solution? Did you have a question? Or have you only just realised & had a Eureka moment?
Originally Posted by RodH View Post
How hard is it for everyone to not understand that I have made a thread of just how quickly this virus has spread so rapidly world wide because of human kinds advance in technology.
Yes, we see that. We're wondering why though. You've pointed out that there's not much doubt about it, so that pretty much ends any conversation.

I too have outlived 2 of the Airlines I've worked for so it's hard to be judgmental of people who are coping in the best way they can, and will react accordingly. If you want a discussion, just elaborate on what it is you want to discuss. Remember, most on here are in the industry and are up to date...
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 11:03
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Angel

Buster.
I don't need a discussion on the thread .
It was simply noting how quickly this has spread due to aviation in particular, sure most know it but what's the harm in posting about it?
That's the substance of my thread.
It's becoming too emotional for some so I would ask the Mods to close this as it's going nowhere fast!
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 11:07
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I did read that the 2 major factors for the spread of the virus are:

1. How dense the population is
2. How dense the population is
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 11:10
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Which populations are you calling dumb?
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 11:19
  #29 (permalink)  

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Ok. Understood.

There's no harm in posting it, but it just makes people wonder why & leads to the variety of responses you got, mine included. I would imagine that the "emotional" part is because they may wonder if this was a wind up, which you've clarified that it isn't.

So...there certainly are issues around this that are worth exploring. Like the filtration system. I've heard that it's 'hospital grade' or something. Is it really? (I'm sure it is, but are TC & CC happy with that?) Has aviation had a significant impact on the absolute disaster that is the USA? They didn't really restrict Domestic travel did they? We're spiking in Victoria, but that's not really aviation driven, so perhaps it's not quite so easy to blame one sector....

Anyway, if you like, you can delete the thread as the Thread starter.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 12:09
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Originally Posted by RodH View Post
Buster.
I don't need a discussion on the thread
I think the gist of the responses are that this IS a discussion site. By all means post questions / arguments / discussions. They are worthwhile, mostly!

Just stating an obvious point and then not wanting a discussion seems a little pointless?

No harm intended mate, we’re all just blowing off steam! If we were at the pub I’d buy you a pint and we’d crack on about something else after having called you “Captain Bloody Obvious”.

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Old 29th Jun 2020, 12:18
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Dang, my LIKE button is not working.

Apologies for giving offense earlier, but people do love an opportunity to take the P. Admittedly I clicked on this thread rubbing my hands and thinking that at last the real 'cause' of the rapid spread had just been discovered. A bit of an anti it was. I'm getting the next round then.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 12:41
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You know that person who asks a question that starts with “Would I be right in saying”....

Usually asked at 4.59pm on a CRM day in a hot classroom when everybody else has shut up and is looking at the door.....
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 14:08
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The plague spread by sea ships back in the day. And said ships transported far smaller numbers of people than anything we've seen in our lifetimes. Lots of examples of contagious disease spreading also involved terrestrial transport. So, any form of mobility increases the chance for a contagious disease spreading.

So what? Shall we just confine everyone to only as far as one can walk? That's totally impractical on any level. So, the solution lies within better prevention and better preparedness for reaction in case the brown thingy does hit the fan. More research on viral and infectious diseases, more research on disinfection technologies and wide implementation of modern disinfection techniques, better prepared healthcare systems and promotion of better hygiene habits among the population could be some far more sustainable solutions than blank restrictions on freedom of movement.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 08:09
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Cut to the chase, the rapid cause was a result of hundreds of thousands of Chinese fleeing the Wuhan area, carrying the virus as they went. And a PRC letting it happen.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 09:17
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Originally Posted by 42... View Post
Cut to the chase, the rapid cause was a result of hundreds of thousands of Chinese fleeing the Wuhan area, carrying the virus as they went. And a PRC letting it happen.
Hundreds of thousands, and where were they fleeing to? Most other parts of China that experienced no outbreaks. China did a remarkable job of locking down Wuhan once the nature of the disease and potential for a pandemic became obvious. and containing. South Korea did the same as did other asian nations. The West failed miserably.

Last edited by Fostex; 30th Jun 2020 at 09:33.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 09:46
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Originally Posted by Going Boeing View Post
100 years ago, the Spanish Flu spread around the world very quickly via sea transport & that was with a much lower population that was more widely dispersed.
Right about the same time the first wireless broadcasts were made around the world apparently.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 09:52
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Originally Posted by RodH View Post
Buster.
I don't need a discussion on the thread .
It was simply noting how quickly this has spread due to aviation in particular, sure most know it but what's the harm in posting about it?
That's the substance of my thread.
It's becoming too emotional for some so I would ask the Mods to close this as it's going nowhere fast!
Rod, the whole point of discussion is to test our thinking, and what you are choosing to call emotional, are responses that question what you've presented as fact. The fact is that most do NOT know why it spread so quickly, especially if they let the telly do the thinking for them.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 10:04
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Smile

Originally Posted by Fostex View Post
Hundreds of thousands, and where were they fleeing to? Most other parts of China that experienced no outbreaks. China did a remarkable job of locking down Wuhan once the nature of the disease and potential for a pandemic became obvious. and containing. South Korea did the same as did other asian nations. The West failed miserably.
I'm sorry but if you believe any of the figures that came out of china then you need to remove that big piece of wool from over your eyes, Its a secretive state that sees failure as the ultimate embarrassment, Government figures and data is to be taken with a pinch of salt
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 12:02
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3.6 Roentgen, not great, not terrible
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 14:02
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Originally Posted by airdualbleedfault View Post
As a wise (not) old man used to say "someone should have drowned the Wright brothers at birth"

How ridiculous. How can a newborn drown two men simultaneously?

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