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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 11th Jun 2020, 12:16
  #141 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by cloudsurfng View Post
Id leave those 747 crew out of it completely and assume they'd either give up, call it a day early or hit 65 before they can be trained.
Well then you’ve got to pay them MGH. There is going to be ‘useful flying’ in long haul at some stage during that time frame. If you’re going to pay them MGH over a period of 18 months you could offer them 12 months MGH and with the redundancy tax rates they clear the same (or perhaps a bit more) money.

Originally Posted by Beer Baron View Post
The fact that the RIN operated that way previously is no guarantee it will do so now. These are vastly different times.

As you would know, the crew who were the last to be RIN’d off the 767 had no aircraft to fly for up to 4 months. They had training courses planned for a future date BUT they remained a 767 Capt’s or F/O’s until that course and received the pay and conditions applicable to that fleet despite the fact that there were no aircraft to fly.
Yes, these are different times but a RIN is an agreed process with a set outcome as per the award. I’d reckon it’d be ‘bad faith’ to say that when the 747 is finished at the end of March that a crew member could remain stood down for an indeterminate time before starting their training course at a time of the company’s choosing. The number of Captains that will require re-training will be in the thirties. Under normal circumstances if they were all going to the same fleet that would be 3-4 months. F/O numbers are slightly higher than that and then there’s the S/Os. There is ‘useful work’, it’s their training course. That there is a bottleneck is not the fault of the individual crew member.

If there is training capacity then again the courses should be started fairly promptly post March next year.

Originally Posted by Beer Baron View Post
I would certainly hope that is NOT the interpretation Qantas take but they have a long history of interpreting rules/laws to benefit the company and screw us. Let’s hope I’m proven wrong.
Agreed. I’d hope AIPA would argue against this fairly strenuously.

Telfer86, LHEA 15.10.3 under voluntary redundancy.

The Company may, at its discretion, offer voluntary redundancies prior to making pilots compulsorily redundant. Prior to final determination of the package to be offered, the Company will meet, as a minimum, its obligations pursuant to clause 9 to consult with the Association on details of the package and, in addition, provide the Association the opportunity to negotiate, in good faith, the package to be offered. The Association acknowledges that the package to be offered in the case of voluntary redundancies by the Company is ultimately at the Company's discretion.

(b) Additionally, the Company will have the right to identify which pilots or groups of pilots will be offered the opportunity to apply for voluntary redundancy and will have the final decision on which pilots are made voluntarily redundant.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 12:26
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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Redundancies would be as per the intergration agreement under the title Redundancy which is based on seniority, not long haul or short haul if it comes to this which I doubt.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 13:19
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OnceBitten View Post
Redundancies would be as per the intergration agreement under the title Redundancy which is based on seniority, not long haul or short haul if it comes to this which I doubt.
Actually itís A or Q list with two different provisions under two different EBAs.

So from me reading it a senior pilot in Longhaul can be made redundant over a junior pilot in shorthaul. Simply because you cannot displace someone under a different award.

Itíd be like a Qantas pilot displacing a Jetstar pilot to CR.

Of course if guys want to complain about that, they were senior and could have gone to short haul.

Anyway itís pie in the sky stuff. With stand down, jobkeeper and perhaps a few tweaks to entitlements during standown, I donít think we will see a single Qantas pilot exit the business who doesnít want to.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 20:32
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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With 3 787’s waiting to be delivered, managing the RIN for the 747 will be made very easy. The A380 is a different story! As per the awards, LH and SH are completely seperate when it comes to RIN’s.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 00:59
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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At some stage theyíre going to have to address the numbers on the 380.
RIN for sure but there should be a sizeable number of retirements that will help.
RIN is problematic no matter what the fleet so VR must be a consideration.
Having said that the 65 club canít rely on 737 slots because there wonít be any for some time.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 01:44
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blueskymine View Post
Actually itís A or Q list with two different provisions under two different EBAs.

So from me reading it a senior pilot in Longhaul can be made redundant over a junior pilot in shorthaul. Simply because you cannot displace someone under a different award.

Itíd be like a Qantas pilot displacing a Jetstar pilot to CR.

Of course if guys want to complain about that, they were senior and could have gone to short haul.

Anyway itís pie in the sky stuff. With stand down, jobkeeper and perhaps a few tweaks to entitlements during standown, I donít think we will see a single Qantas pilot exit the business who doesnít want to.
BSM, Read the Integration award 16 (e) this relates to redundancies across mainline and states "vacancies resulting from the re-shuffling of positions consequent upon retrenchment shall be filled in accordance with the provisions for filling vacancies set out in this award and other applicable awards/agreements". Basically meaning in the whole context of section 16 relating to redundancies for those A and Q pilots above the Y, and below the Y relates to all remaining Q pilots in seniority. Vacancies that are created by these provisions will be subsequently advertised to be filled in seniority order from the remaining pool of pilots. So redundancies across mainline are done in seniority and are not dependant on the Haul according to the IA.
I agree with you in regards to RINs and displacements that these do not apply across the Hauls but mainline redundancies do. I also agree with your sentiment that with standown, Jobkeeper and VRs we won't see a crew member depart that doesn't want to.

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Old 12th Jun 2020, 04:32
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OnceBitten View Post
BSM, Read the Integration award 16 (e) this relates to redundancies across mainline and states "vacancies resulting from the re-shuffling of positions consequent upon retrenchment shall be filled in accordance with the provisions for filling vacancies set out in this award and other applicable awards/agreements". Basically meaning in the whole context of section 16 relating to redundancies for those A and Q pilots above the Y, and below the Y relates to all remaining Q pilots in seniority. Vacancies that are created by these provisions will be subsequently advertised to be filled in seniority order from the remaining pool of pilots. So redundancies across mainline are done in seniority and are not dependant on the Haul according to the IA.
I agree with you in regards to RINs and displacements that these do not apply across the Hauls but mainline redundancies do. I also agree with your sentiment that with standown, Jobkeeper and VRs we won't see a crew member depart that doesn't want to.
16.D.iii trumps that though. If there are surplus Q pilots but not A pilots, Q pilots shall only be retrenched.

section E refers that if for instance a pilot is retrenched and that position becomes a consequential vacancy, It shall be filled in accordance with seniority. For instance if 10 787 SOs are made redundant, those positions if required will be filled from the top down. It doesnít refer to jumping from long haul to short haul or vice versa.

I read it more as those positions are filled in order of seniority from those that are left, not the retrenchment list.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 05:00
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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If it gets to Q and A pilots then itís goodnight Irene!
Partyís over!
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 05:19
  #149 (permalink)  
 
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Well if what is stated above is true , then moving to SH straight after joining was a wise move

If you assume QF redundancy numbers similar % to AirNZ, BA - maybe 30% , but not quite the disaster level of Air Canada

then about 750 , that takes you back to LH hires circa 2005 to 2007 era doesn't it ?

You may as well wait for a CR as it is a much better deal in terms of quantity of payout & certainty of return

Why would you take a lesser value VR ?
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 05:44
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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Any idea of what’s likely to happen at Jetstar
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 05:49
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nvfr View Post
Any idea of whatís likely to happen at Jetstar
I would say domestic back to normal within 12 months.

the 787's would have the same question mark as the QF 380's....nothing anytime soon.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 06:31
  #152 (permalink)  
 
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Domestic, Tasman and Pacific look to be positive for Jetstar OZ and NZ for a quick Ian recovery. 787 and international such as Bali look weak. No rumours of redundancies yet, they were undercrewed anyway and will likely manage things througH LWOP, continued stand down, part time etc.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 06:36
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China along with all of the Pacific will back open by the end of the year. The 787ís and 330ís will be busy again. Also youíd think QF will have around 80% of the domestic market.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 06:39
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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Not if Victoria keeps having transmission
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 06:47
  #155 (permalink)  
 
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You can think what you want but International travellers won’t be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments haven’t done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas don’t downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market won’t have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they won’t be taking now.

Last edited by ozbiggles; 12th Jun 2020 at 06:58.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 07:00
  #156 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OnceBitten View Post
BSM, Read the Integration award 16 (e) this relates to redundancies across mainline and states "vacancies resulting from the re-shuffling of positions consequent upon retrenchment shall be filled in accordance with the provisions for filling vacancies set out in this award and other applicable awards/agreements". Basically meaning in the whole context of section 16 relating to redundancies for those A and Q pilots above the Y, and below the Y relates to all remaining Q pilots in seniority. Vacancies that are created by these provisions will be subsequently advertised to be filled in seniority order from the remaining pool of pilots. So redundancies across mainline are done in seniority and are not dependant on the Haul according to the IA.
I agree with you in regards to RINs and displacements that these do not apply across the Hauls but mainline redundancies do. I also agree with your sentiment that with standown, Jobkeeper and VRs we won't see a crew member depart that doesn't want to.

Itís not talked about much but since the 767 RIN the firms opinion has been that SH/73 is quarantined from both RIN and CR. The outcome of any subsequent challenge to that is of course unknown. It is also worth remembering that opinion cuts both ways if there were to ever be an over supply domestically.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 07:04
  #157 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
You can think what you want but International travellers wonít be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments havenít done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas donít downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market wonít have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they wonít be taking now.
Except where there used to be 380s/747s, there will be 787s. Where there used to be 330s, there will be 737s. Where there used to be 737s, there will be 717s, where there used to be 717s, there will be Q400s etc etc.

Qantas has a lot of flexibility with its fleet, over say a giant A380/777 operator or the like.

So in reality, Qantas will have a similar network with similar frequencies to what it had before. Itíll just fly smaller aircraft.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 08:58
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
You can think what you want but International travellers wonít be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments havenít done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas donít downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market wonít have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they wonít be taking now.
While I'm sure the reduced international visitors will impact domestic demand as well, it may be largely offset by an increase in domestic travel by Australians unable to travel overseas.
The best evidence we have right now is China where domestic flights are no up to 80% of pre-covid levels.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 11:53
  #159 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blueskymine View Post
Except where there used to be 380s/747s, there will be 787s. Where there used to be 330s, there will be 737s. Where there used to be 737s, there will be 717s, where there used to be 717s, there will be Q400s etc etc.

Qantas has a lot of flexibility with its fleet, over say a giant A380/777 operator or the like.

So in reality, Qantas will have a similar network with similar frequencies to what it had before. Itíll just fly smaller aircraft.
Yep spot on. 3 x week will be the new daily.

Large aircraft wonít be required unless of course these ďtravel bubblesĒ eventuate. Iím hypothesising here, but if say Thailand and Australia form a bubble, you may need a 380 running to Bangkok because the demand is centralised on a few specific approved countries and itís the only place people can travel. Likewise Japan, Singapore etc. And then potentially use the 787 for long thin routes to countries in Europe like Austria and Germany.

QF obviously need to shift away from UK and US destinations, their traditional heartland. Might involve some loss making routes for a while but you canít just sit on your hands forever (with aircraft sitting on the ground) and do nothing.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 23:37
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Qantas group profit drivers are domestic and QFF. Obviously international traffic feeds into domestic operations so I’m not trying to discredit the role of International. Qantas own most their fleet. They obviously have debt to service so there may be a balance where a bit of extra revenue is a good thing even if it is loss making. I suspect the scope for this is very small, and it’s far more likely the A380 operation will take another year off with their crews remaining stood down.

Jefferies Investment Bank have assumed QF wages bill next financial year will be over 50% down from FY19. They have assumed the government will be very slow opening international borders even once a vaccine is developed.

Leave accrual for 1500 long haul pilots whilst stood down cost the company about $30M/yr. That is the redundancy payout for more than 400 juniors.

There are tough decisions ahead. I’d like to believe no pilot who doesn’t want to leave the company will be forced to. It is becoming clear though that keeping the piloting family together is going to be dependent on our leadership.
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