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Will you ever go back to Aviation?

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Will you ever go back to Aviation?

Old 13th Sep 2020, 01:37
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: In da Big Smoke
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
Well they managed without a flight engineer and a navigator, why can't they manage without a human first officer, whats wrong with a robot, that doesn't get tired, never leaves the flight deck, is fully situationally aware continuously and doesn't cost $100,000 per year, seems perfectly sensible to me. I don't see the travelling public will accept no humans at all up the front
Whilst it is technically possible I think the development, certification, insurance costs are going to make it uneconomical for now. Additional to that it is actually riskier to start experimenting with automation as the current system of two pilots with a computer system is already very safe. Single Pilot with a computer is actually a higher risk proposition.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 02:04
  #62 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
Whilst it is technically possible I think the development, certification, insurance costs are going to make it uneconomical for now. Additional to that it is actually riskier to start experimenting with automation as the current system of two pilots with a computer system is already very safe. Single Pilot with a computer is actually a higher risk proposition.
And I agree with you "For Now" but in 20 years, that's a long time in our rapidly evolving world.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 02:34
  #63 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Propjet88 is on it, post 41, good post.
Interesting because he actually contradicts what you state:

I don't buy into the "Drones will take over / airliners will have single-pilot operations by then" and other such rhetoric being spread by doom and gloom merchants. Maybe in the distant future, but not in my lifetime. I am predicting that the pilot shortage will come back with a vengeance. Having said this, I appreciate that pilots are very big into uncertainty avoidance and not having a fixed date for the bounce back is very stressful.
The only real technological advance in the last 20 years has been the use of carbon fibre in the manufacturing of airframes and thats by only one manufacturer. As far as I am aware an autoland can still only be conducted in what would best be described as benign conditions.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 02:45
  #64 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
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Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
The only real technological advance in the last 20 years has been the use of carbon fibre in the manufacturing of airframes and thats by only one manufacturer. As far as I am aware an autoland can still only be conducted in what would best be described as benign conditions.
Umm! really!!!, where have you been ???
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 02:50
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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Flying 737s and A320s. Updates to technology is not the same as new technology. There are more checks and cross checks required before an RNP approach than there are for an ILS. So why is the 2nd pilot not required?
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 02:59
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
So why is the 2nd pilot not required?
I didn't say "not required" I said replaced by an AI, The vision, A self contained, fully independent, totally situationally aware, fixed installation robot, so good you can't tell the difference from a real first officer performance wise.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 03:07
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 03:27
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.
Well it's all academic then, personally I don't think progress will just stop, in fact after every crisis there has been a burst in development or change, hence the term "never waste a good crisis" I'm optimistic for the future, it would be nice to have a crystal ball and know in advance what that's going to be and how it will look.There's gains to be made if you can predict it right and get in early enough.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 12:34
  #69 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2018
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Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.
Pig with lipstick...thanks mate, gave me a good laugh and I happen to agree with you.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 20:01
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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single pilot is dangerous unless you fit the robot with a crash axe.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 00:21
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Daddy Fantastic View Post
Pig with lipstick...thanks mate, gave me a good laugh and I happen to agree with you.
Which is why the 737 is a 1960s jet with a 1990s computer strapped to it.

The A320 is a 1980s jet with a 1990s computer strapped To it.

The rest is just marketing.

The advancements in aerospace are in the materials and manufacturing. The actual interface is very basic. There is probably less computing power in an A350/B787 than an iPhone.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 02:57
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/

Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison.

When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey?
CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability.

The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 03:31
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lucille View Post
100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit.
I think not, it has to be more than a glorified autopilot, it has to be better than human, updated yes but self contained, so well that from a captains perspective is flying with the same first officer every time, even though it's a different unit. It must learn human individual uniqueness, remember every conversation. It doesn't need to walk or leave the flight deck, just be able to operate the rudder and brakes along with two hands. It must see everything, know everything, understand and respond to verbal conversation. external input in flight is ideal but not essential. Then we are in the zone, but only the first officer and I wouldn't expect to see that in a commercial airliner for at least 20 years, but I'm sure it will happen.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 05:35
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lucille View Post
100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/

Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison.

When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey?
CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability.

The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters.
As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 10:55
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...”

Agreed. Poor choice of words on my part. It was just simpler and less pedantic than saying a probability of failure that would be low enough to assuage the fears of the travelling public. Nevertheless, I’m sure most got my drift no matter how inexpertly I may have worded it.

But anyone who rejects the idea that crews of aircraft which operate between major city airports can’t eventually be replaced by automation is just being hopeful. It’s coming, the capability is very nearly here, the only question is when.




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Old 14th Sep 2020, 11:46
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 12:06
  #77 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
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Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?
Well that's the best part, an AI doesn't need to be tested in a real aircraft, a simulator will do nicely. The development of an AI is a stand alone project, it just needs to be adapted to an aircraft/airline environment. It's not without it's challenges, in recent times and I'll hunt down the name of the AI project, when powered up it's very first action was to write it's own language at an alarming rate, no-one could understand or keep up with what it was doing, it took just 20 minutes before they pulled the plug. I guess that got moved underground into a faraday cage.

ipsoft.com/amelia

Go and meet Amelia and you'll sorta get the idea, imagine 20 years from now.

Last edited by Xeptu; 14th Sep 2020 at 12:30.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 12:16
  #78 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
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If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 12:36
  #79 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
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Originally Posted by turbantime View Post
If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.
That's right, well for about half the workforce, that's why it's time to have the conversation about how we want to live when half of us are not employed because of robotics and automation.
How should our society look.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 12:51
  #80 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Well that's the best part, an AI doesn't need to be tested in a real aircraft, a simulator will do nicely.
At some point it will need to be integrated, tested and certified into a real oxygen breathing aeroplane. Integrating different "systems" into something that needs to actually fly not just be simulated is a very difficult proposition. I'm thinking Kaman Seasprite and the RAN.
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