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Future of Jetstar

Old 12th Apr 2020, 09:40
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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The UK had rationing until 1954, nine years after the end of world war 2. It may have been the golden age of capitalism, but it was not a time of plenty.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 10:10
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lederhosen View Post
The UK had rationing until 1954, nine years after the end of world war 2. It may have been the golden age of capitalism, but it was not a time of plenty.
The post–World War II economic expansion, also known as the golden age of capitalism and the postwar economic boom or simply the long boom, was a broad period of worldwide economic expansion beginning after World War II and ending with the 1973–1975 recession.”

In the US, Gross Domestic Product increased from $228 billion in 1945 to just under $1.7 trillion in 1975.”
-wikipedia
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 11:20
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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I think you are missing my point, which is that those of us hoping to resume flying soon, may be faced with a long wait before things start recovering. Viewed in 50 years this may seem like a small blip (I certainly hope so). But right now passenger airline operations are likely to be impacted for some considerable time.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 12:18
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
And what if Qantas Group just tells the Government "If you want JQ as a separate entity you pay for it or we close it down."...............
Yeah nah. If the gov wants competition and it sees an independent JQ as it, it just changes the law (if it needs to) and the ACCC forces QF to divest it for competition purposes.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 12:31
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by exfocx View Post
Yeah nah. If the gov wants competition and it sees an independent JQ as it, it just changes the law (if it needs to) and the ACCC forces QF to divest it for competition purposes.
And how is that going to attract any business to operate in Australia? If your competitor fails, we'll force you to break up your company so we can have "competition", seriously?
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 14:49
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.
I think your friends and siblings are telling you this to keep you positive my friend. The reality is that Covid19 is showing a lot of businesses how cost effective Skype, Zoom and working from home really is. Unfortunately this will mean a sharp decline in business class and corporate travel in general post Covid19. I am hearing this from people in the corporate world who are licking their lips at the chance to reduce such overheads on the other side of this pandemic.

As for JQ v QF for whatever corporate travel remains post Covid - well you just have to look at the shift that has occured over the last few years in Europe. Many businesses that once flew their employees business class now use Easyjet, Wizzair and even Ryanair to keep costs down. This pandemic will only accelerate the same shift here in Aus in my opinion.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 20:31
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Cutting travel budgets was spruiked post GFC. As soon as companies got back on their feet biz travel took off.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 21:46
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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We are still planning a european trip next july.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 21:57
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
We are still planning a european trip next july.
Hopefully Australia will have lifted it's border closure by then.

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Old 12th Apr 2020, 23:07
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
Hopefully Australia will have lifted it's border closure by then.
Experts are saying that at best we could have a vaccine in 12 months. Once that happens, expect mandatory vaccination before many countries will allow entry.
At best in the meantime, some limited travel between countries where the virus is well controlled and with reciprocal arrangements may become possible, eg Australia and New Zealand perhaps.
But with what is happening in Indonesia, Turkey, the USA and enough other places around the world, to get to an agreeable country in Europe would probably require a direct flight. Transit through the usual Middle East suspects is likely to remain a no no.
I have deferred my plans for Europe this year by 12 months.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 23:25
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 2theline View Post
I think your friends and siblings are telling you this to keep you positive my friend. The reality is that Covid19 is showing a lot of businesses how cost effective Skype, Zoom and working from home really is. Unfortunately this will mean a sharp decline in business class and corporate travel in general post Covid19. I am hearing this from people in the corporate world who are licking their lips at the chance to reduce such overheads on the other side of this pandemic.

As for JQ v QF for whatever corporate travel remains post Covid - well you just have to look at the shift that has occured over the last few years in Europe. Many businesses that once flew their employees business class now use Easyjet, Wizzair and even Ryanair to keep costs down. This pandemic will only accelerate the same shift here in Aus in my opinion.
Maybe, but maybe a lot of people now have a better understanding of the value in face to face communication and the limitations of said technology.

whether this returns us to pre-COVID levels of travel I don’t know.... but I have no doubt the corporate travel market will be alive and well post Covid.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 23:26
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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If the Queensland Uni vaccine follows the current path its vaccine could be ready by January. Still a long time from here but faster than originally expected.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 23:26
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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I add this comment as input to discussion of the future. If Virgin folds and there is no effective competition to jetstar, then I would expect the Qantas group to strangle the Australian tourist industry. Australia is borderline tourism competitive now(pre covid) there MUST be a competitive travel market or Qantas/Jetstar will just increase prices.

So far for our cancelled winter travel to Europe, we have recovered our airfares and cancelled our accommodation bookings with a loss to date of around $600. The yacht charter in Croatia was moved forward a year at no charge. The italian ferry company is supposedly bankrupt so no refund there.

The saddest part is that we had just perfected our holiday travel methods; A very small car, AirBnB in small towns, avoiding European air travel and substitute car ferry or train. Google and suchlike for restaurants and Waze on the iPad for navigation. If you are not time poor, such an approach is pretty economical compared to say staying in Australia and visiting Broome, Port Douglas or Hamilton Is.

When we look at it overall, two economy tickets with Vietnam Airlines and a couple of nights in Vietnam each way to break the jet lag plus the travel methods mentioned above are pretty good value compared to any Australian destinations. I remember the bad old days - when Qantas had virtual mono poly rights. I did the Melbourne sydney heathrow thing about seven times because I had a homesick British wife. The cost in those days was about $7000 for the three of us. I do not wish to see a return to that pricing (and never Heathrow) if Qantas once again dominated the market. As for domestic travel the charges were astronomical.

.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 23:30
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 2theline View Post
The reality is that Covid19 is showing a lot of businesses how cost effective Skype, Zoom and working from home really is. .
Also showing them the security holes in apps like Zoom.

Company I was working for sent out a specific warning about using Zoom for confidential discussions and the ADF has apparently banned the use of it.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 00:46
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post
Cutting travel budgets was spruiked post GFC. As soon as companies got back on their feet biz travel took off.
This is nothing like the GFC. Most of the impact back then was centred on the US. China was in a position to cushion the blow. Sure the world felt it but recovery was relatively quick. This time round is much different. No country will be sheltered or spared a financial battering. Yes business travel may eventually rebound but the rebound will be very slow and take many years. What happens in the meantime? Do QF run aircraft around half full, heavily discount prices to fill aircraft or worse still, reduce fleet size? Does AJ focus his attention on JQ which has the ability to offer $50 tickets, as this is where demand sits post Covid? Time will tell.

Instead of drawing similarities to the GFC many financial experts are saying that we should be likening this to the great depression. This will give us a better idea of what things will look like post Covid. One thing is certain, airlines will look very different on the other side of this.

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Old 13th Apr 2020, 01:56
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Yet during the Great Depression commercial aviation, particularly in the US established itself and flourished. That was at a time when air travel was expensive so if the economists are looking to that period of history for precedent then the future of commercial aviation is not as dismal as some would think.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 02:02
  #57 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Mach E Avelli View Post
Once that happens, expect mandatory vaccination before many countries will allow entry.
Gee, that took me back. Who remembers all the shots you used to have to get before you could travel OS?
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 02:55
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Who remembers all the shots you used to have to get before you could travel OS?


I may even have my yellow international health certificate book somewhere.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 04:09
  #59 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
I may even have my yellow international health certificate book somewhere.
I know I've still got that TB scar!
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 05:22
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DanV2 View Post
Getting back on topic re Jetstar. The companies QF owns less than 49% of, I can see them exiting (Jetstar Pacific, Jetstar Japan, etc). As for Jetstar NZ, there's also a good chance of JQ exiting that and transferring those aircraft back to Australian Domestic/Trans-Tasman runs. JQ has already exited regional NZ operations and transferred those aircraft back to QFLink.

Assuming that SIA doesn't have a 4th attempt at the Australian domestic market, I could see QF exiting 3K (Jetstar Asia) being a possibility by selling their 49% stake to another company.

Either way, JQi in Australia is a good chance of being decimated if not folded up entirely. A post COVID-19 JQ-i could have their international flying reduced to just Trans-Tasman, Fiji and Bali "bogan-bus" flying with A320neos and A321LRs, whilst exiting long-haul completely with the 788 fleet transferred to QF mainline.
They exited regional because there isn't enough work in NZ for two regional carriers. You're joking right? Why would they pull their NZ jet operation? ANZ is already weakened their position in NZ. Now would be a good time to capitalize on that. If things really start looking bad towards 12 months and most of their cash burnt through they will sell off 3K (vietnam) and JQ japan.
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