Post Covid19 Aviation
The travelling public has a very short memory.
In a year to 18 months,apart from the sad loss of some familiar outfits,people will have forgotten. People are far more resilient and selfish and will want to fly. As for freight flying dropping off,quite the opposite,certainly the last outfit I worked for is balls out!
In a year to 18 months,apart from the sad loss of some familiar outfits,people will have forgotten. People are far more resilient and selfish and will want to fly. As for freight flying dropping off,quite the opposite,certainly the last outfit I worked for is balls out!
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I believe that if this crisis is contained within 3 months there will be an almighty surge for air travel once again, but If it goes on any longer than that it will be very different!
“Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia?”
Errrm, just passed a TV where the ‘tickertape’ news said “Nationwide crackdown on social gatherings”. Borders have been closed. Overseas travel has been ‘banned’.
Have you been living under a rock?
Before this started, a criminal trial was held in complete secrecy in Canberra - in a country that claims to be governed by the rule of law. Journalists’ homes were raided as they had the temerity to try to discover and disclose the truth about the actions of members of the ADF. You now have to explain why you want to spend $10,000 or more in cash. The bureaucrats who think all these things are “good” for us will be licking their lips at the controls being put in place now.
Errrm, just passed a TV where the ‘tickertape’ news said “Nationwide crackdown on social gatherings”. Borders have been closed. Overseas travel has been ‘banned’.
Have you been living under a rock?
Before this started, a criminal trial was held in complete secrecy in Canberra - in a country that claims to be governed by the rule of law. Journalists’ homes were raided as they had the temerity to try to discover and disclose the truth about the actions of members of the ADF. You now have to explain why you want to spend $10,000 or more in cash. The bureaucrats who think all these things are “good” for us will be licking their lips at the controls being put in place now.
Post Covid19 Aviation
I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.
She'll be right
Lead B, these are patently temporary "laws" under the public health act not the stealthy introduction of George Orwell type laws, you know very well what he and I were referring to. The trial "in camera" and the journalists raids were pre-virus so not really relevant. If a journalist has been seen to break the law why should the police not investigate? Why do they get a free pass?
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Or maybe Bridget McKenzie.
So many examples to choose from. Such a trustworthy government we have here.
The immediate future for the travel industry is probably dependant on what all we elderly travellers decide to do: call quits on overseas travel, (insurance/superannuation losses/increasing physical difficulty), or, limit the longer distance travel and keep closer to home. From what I hear in my age group, it is going to be some of both. The real determining factor is probably financial - we just won't have the discretionary spending power of before. In my case, it has been 2 overseas trips, often cruises + air travel), per year, and many older than me,(79), do 3 per year. I have already lost a quantum equal to my GFC losses: from which we never completely recovered. This time it is going to be bad, and many, many of my fellow SMSF owners will begin the Age Pension in the very near future. Our future travel prospects are dim, and this will take some time to replace. The Boomers were a 'once-in-a-lifetime' phenomena.
Lead B, these are patently temporary "laws" under the public health act not the stealthy introduction of George Orwell type laws, you know very well what he and I were referring to. The trial "in camera" and the journalists raids were pre-virus so not really relevant. If a journalist has been seen to break the law why should the police not investigate? Why do they get a free pass?
Re the journalists, it’s about who the police choose to investigate versus those they don’t. Hunt down and punish any outsider who exposes the truth. Don’t hunt down and punish insiders who are responsible for the conduct that is exposed.
The ease with which all these “temporary” arrangements are imposed will give the bureaucracy a ‘taste’. History demonstrate that practically unfettered power is very addictive.
From my perspective the most interesting aspect of this experiment will be how the authorities practically react to disobedience. Are they going to build and fill new gaols with the dozen people who attend a funeral and the two dozen who attend a wedding? If a bunch of mates jump in a car and go for a drive ‘just for the fun of it’, are the authorities going to put the lads in gaol? Some governments are talking about releasing existing ‘low risk’ prisoners from gaol.
Does a person who has lost everything care about a $13,000 fine? Might as well make it $13million. Probably get to court in around 2022.
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I was employed in the finance industry during the GFC. Maybe some here were still in short pants at school when that blew through town. Here is a snapshot what I witnessed while servicing clients.
Many lost their home/investment property/car
Some committed suicide
Many lost their jobs and never returned to their original occupation or pre GFC salary level
Many superannuation accounts halved (yes they came back eventually) this delayed many retiring which completely screwed opportunities for the young.
Some experienced mental illness and were never the same.
Many went bankrupt.
Considering this appears many times more damaging then the GFC (this is a health crisis and an economic crisis) I wouldn't expect to see the bounce in air travel as many have stated.
The wealth of millions of people has been destroyed and I suspect we are still in the early days of an undefined timeline. How is the government going to bail out all of these people and the companies they work for? More money printing? Taxation?
Some other points to consider:
Consumers are carrying far more debt than in the GFC. Australians have the highest private debt levels per capita in the world.
Anyone under say 35 hasn't seen bad times as a working adult thus the appetite for risk in many was extreme.
Interest rates were higher at around 7% from memory and the RBA had plenty of room to move - today they are out of ammunition with regards to rates
The issues of the GFC were never resolved - "the can was just kicked down the road" as they say
I suspect this is a brave new world where the excesses and luxuries experienced by so many are gone for now including air travel and holidays.
This is a huge sh*t sandwich and we are all going to take a bite - unfortunately even our kids and grand kids.
If you weren't working with a mortgage over your head during a recession or the GFC you wouldn't understand why so many people have a grim outlook.
Many lost their home/investment property/car
Some committed suicide
Many lost their jobs and never returned to their original occupation or pre GFC salary level
Many superannuation accounts halved (yes they came back eventually) this delayed many retiring which completely screwed opportunities for the young.
Some experienced mental illness and were never the same.
Many went bankrupt.
Considering this appears many times more damaging then the GFC (this is a health crisis and an economic crisis) I wouldn't expect to see the bounce in air travel as many have stated.
The wealth of millions of people has been destroyed and I suspect we are still in the early days of an undefined timeline. How is the government going to bail out all of these people and the companies they work for? More money printing? Taxation?
Some other points to consider:
Consumers are carrying far more debt than in the GFC. Australians have the highest private debt levels per capita in the world.
Anyone under say 35 hasn't seen bad times as a working adult thus the appetite for risk in many was extreme.
Interest rates were higher at around 7% from memory and the RBA had plenty of room to move - today they are out of ammunition with regards to rates
The issues of the GFC were never resolved - "the can was just kicked down the road" as they say
I suspect this is a brave new world where the excesses and luxuries experienced by so many are gone for now including air travel and holidays.
This is a huge sh*t sandwich and we are all going to take a bite - unfortunately even our kids and grand kids.
If you weren't working with a mortgage over your head during a recession or the GFC you wouldn't understand why so many people have a grim outlook.
The voice of experience. Thanks ADawg.
And don’t forget: During the GFC (and in the wake of the ‘87 ‘crash’) government was not directing businesses not to operate. The schools were still open and the hospitals operated as normal.
And don’t forget: During the GFC (and in the wake of the ‘87 ‘crash’) government was not directing businesses not to operate. The schools were still open and the hospitals operated as normal.
Interest rates were higher at around 7% from memory and the RBA had plenty of room to move - today they are out of ammunition with regards to rates
The issues of the GFC were never resolved - "the can was just kicked down the road" as they say
The issues of the GFC were never resolved - "the can was just kicked down the road" as they say
Totally agree though - most of the general public think there is just a health crisis going on at the moment. While true - this is just most likely the catalyst that sets off total economic collapse. Either through depression, or, more likely, hyper inflation. All federal reserves that matter have the money printers going at maximum now.
We are now edging closer and closer to people realizing the total con that is going on here and losing complete confidence in Government issued fiat.
If the hyper-inflation to which kingRB referred occurs, any cash you stash under the mattress will be worth less than toilet paper. Maybe that’s why people are hoarding toilet paper!
Indeed LB. It's pretty clear since the GFC governments don't have the stomach to allow a wash out the system with a hard reset (depression) - so on the endless money printing goes. Sorry, economic "stimulus". All evidence leads me to the opinion of an incoming currency crisis.
Depression or hyper inflation, cash in the bank or cash under your mattress you are going to be screwed either way. Do your own due diligence, obviously don't take my word for it - but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.
Depression or hyper inflation, cash in the bank or cash under your mattress you are going to be screwed either way. Do your own due diligence, obviously don't take my word for it - but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.
Evertonian
Evertonian
After nearly 30 years without a recession, it's only Australians in their mid 40s and older who have any grasp on what really difficult times are like. For those of us our mid fifties, we would have seen a reasonable amount but still nothing like our parents and grandparents experienced during and after WW2, particularly if they originated from Europe. There seems to be very little resilience and it's surprising to see what's happening this early on in the crisis with Centrelink offices being overwhelmed and panic buying after only a few days. It's like mass hysteria has gripped a large section the country. Other nations seem to be faring better, especially in Asia where there isn't a nanny state mentality.
I feel most sorry for those close to retirement who have had the value of their investments decimated and don't have enough working years left to recover, their golden years won't be quite so shiny. Being broke at 30 is bad enough, at 60 it's a disaster.
A recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours.
I feel most sorry for those close to retirement who have had the value of their investments decimated and don't have enough working years left to recover, their golden years won't be quite so shiny. Being broke at 30 is bad enough, at 60 it's a disaster.
A recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours.
Indeed LB. It's pretty clear since the GFC governments don't have the stomach to allow a wash out the system with a hard reset (depression) - so on the endless money printing goes. Sorry, economic "stimulus". All evidence leads me to the opinion of an incoming currency crisis.
Depression or hyper inflation, cash in the bank or cash under your mattress you are going to be screwed either way. Do your own due diligence, obviously don't take my word for it - but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.
Depression or hyper inflation, cash in the bank or cash under your mattress you are going to be screwed either way. Do your own due diligence, obviously don't take my word for it - but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.
My guesses (And that’s all they are)
Still pain in 6 months but plenty getting their jobs back before then (in some form)
Quite A few boomers close to retirement pulling the pin early
In 12 months a certain level of normalcy for the drivers, but under a drastically different model for the airlines.
The airlines will use this to aggressively reduce wages and conditions for the next 5-10 years.
people still have a need and want to move around the world and there will be a vaccine within 6 months.
Who knows..
Still pain in 6 months but plenty getting their jobs back before then (in some form)
Quite A few boomers close to retirement pulling the pin early
In 12 months a certain level of normalcy for the drivers, but under a drastically different model for the airlines.
The airlines will use this to aggressively reduce wages and conditions for the next 5-10 years.
people still have a need and want to move around the world and there will be a vaccine within 6 months.
Who knows..
short flights long nights
My guesses (And that’s all they are)
Still pain in 6 months but plenty getting their jobs back before then (in some form)
Quite A few boomers close to retirement pulling the pin early
In 12 months a certain level of normalcy for the drivers, but under a drastically different model for the airlines.
The airlines will use this to aggressively reduce wages and conditions for the next 5-10 years.
people still have a need and want to move around the world and there will be a vaccine within 6 months.
Who knows..
Still pain in 6 months but plenty getting their jobs back before then (in some form)
Quite A few boomers close to retirement pulling the pin early
In 12 months a certain level of normalcy for the drivers, but under a drastically different model for the airlines.
The airlines will use this to aggressively reduce wages and conditions for the next 5-10 years.
people still have a need and want to move around the world and there will be a vaccine within 6 months.
Who knows..
The ‘ boomers’ as you love to call us.. have just had millions knocked of their super. What makes you think we will
be in a position to retire early?