Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Flights from China

Old 31st Jan 2020, 04:01
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Flights from China

Are we out of step here? Shouldn’t all flights to and from China be stopped? Interested in all thoughts, not a Qantas bashing thread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...s-border-china

Last edited by dragon man; 31st Jan 2020 at 04:12. Reason: Add link
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 06:33
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If China are serious, they will shut their borders and not allow any Chinese nationals out. As long as air travel is allowed, people are going to continue travel for numerous reasons including escaping ground zero(which now has to be considered all of China). The timing couldn’t have been more disastrous for the world, coinciding with Chinese New Year.

If the Chinese won’t shut their borders, I think our government has to get on the front foot and shut our borders to Chinese nationals. With 2,000 passengers a day arriving from China, Australia needs to take action and take it ASAP. Stopping flights from China will not be enough because they could then travel via other countries.

This may not be a popular decision, but it is time to use our geographical advantage and look to isolate our county.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 06:40
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I agree and think this will get worse.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 06:48
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It might also be pertinent to ask why the national carrier, who only yesterday claimed that person to person transmission was highly unlikely (BS that was sent to pilots also from their union-thanks to the QF folk that forwarded it!) has continued to operate there.
The list of airlines ceasing mainland China flying is growing and a lot of it is the purview of "workplace safety"
  • Air France
  • KLM
  • Turkish Airways
  • British Airways
  • American Airlines
  • Cathay Pacific (Halving capacity)
  • Finnair (something similar)
Christian Porter, the Attorney General of Backwater Australia, will need to get a hustle on to push through the union busting bill..
Those pesky unions keep getting in the way...

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...22a16e4f9aa692

Where is the pilot leadership?
Is the Qantas pilot union doing anything other than vying for management office positions? Only yesterday they repeated to fallacy that person to person transmission is unlikely.


  • Aircraft filtration systems are more than adequate to effectively filter the air.
  • The virus is not easily transmitted from person to person; unlike SARS.
Phew, just as well, the Germans, Japanese and Americans must be lying.

Don't worry though there will be a conga line of volunteers, coming in on a day off, carrying minimum fuel, all resplendent with those white plastic hats.


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Old 31st Jan 2020, 07:00
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Just heard we are evacuating our people from China using a normal Quant Arse crew. They will do a normal passenger run from Sydney to HK tonight before resting for about 36 hours. Then fly to China and on to Darwin landing 2.30 am Monday.

And yes we should ban all flights from China.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 08:30
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Probably not a good idea to tech stop in WADD or anywhere else in Indonesia.
Might incur Little Napoleon's displeasure if you add fuel though..

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/th...30-p53wc9.html
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 14:23
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A week ago we were told in Australia .... Human to Human spread was low...now Deputy Cheif Medical Officer, Paul Kelly, says it's very possible.

And no health screening will at airports will help. It takes 2 weeks until you appear to be sick.

i think we are in serious trouble. Simply because the government won't lock down the borders because they are fearing to upset China.

Singapore has just announced its closing its borders to people from China.

Russia has closed its borders.

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Old 31st Jan 2020, 20:04
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I think the entire thing is a monumental overreaction. Some of the airlines that have suspended flights I'm sure are because of low loads. We are not talking about bubonic plague here, more people die of flu every year in Australia (which is a form of Coronavirus incidentally).

There's a bit of truth in the attached, although it is from a whimsical perspective. Just to balance out some of the panicking that's going on. I'm pretty sure I heard the WHO said the other day they do not recommend stopping flights.

https://thebeaverton.com/2020/01/rep...-jhM7WIcjOS5fc
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 20:26
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Originally Posted by AerialPerspective View Post
I think the entire thing is a monumental overreaction. Some of the airlines that have suspended flights I'm sure are because of low loads. We are not talking about bubonic plague here, more people die of flu every year in Australia (which is a form of Coronavirus incidentally).

There's a bit of truth in the attached, although it is from a whimsical perspective. Just to balance out some of the panicking that's going on. I'm pretty sure I heard the WHO said the other day they do not recommend stopping flights.

https://thebeaverton.com/2020/01/rep...-jhM7WIcjOS5fc
The problem with the WHO is that it is a political organisation, it's second biggest donor is China.


With respect to influenza, what is its R0?

If you didn't know it is 1.28.
This thing is estimated between 2.4-2.5.
If you care to extrapolate through cycles transmission rates with this R0 you will very quickly concede that it is nothing like influenza.

The New England Journal of Medicine has published very good case study research on the person to person transmission event in Germany.
What is very interesting is:

1. Incubation period was short.
2. Asymptomatic transmission was confirmed in three cases
3. Point 2 was further confirmed in that several patients had no contact with the index patient.





Only three days ago certain organisations including the Australian government refused to concede that person to person transmission was possible.
If there are asymptomatic transmissions occurring outside China, then it begins to fit the criteria of pandemic.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 21:25
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A great PR exercise for Qantas.
Helping Australians when they need it.
Qudos for the crew.
With all the cameras I hope to see AJ stepping down from the aircraft when it arrives in AUS!
Leadership from the front.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:25
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What duty of care does an operator have in regards to crew operating into Wuhan?

I imagine the cabin crew (and pilots) will be wearing company issued masks which in itself is an acknowledgement that an increased risk to their health exists. Can an individual reasonably refuse to crew if that is the case and the company should call for volunteers instead?

Then, having been potentially exposed to the virus - after all the proposed QF exercise is to take people into isolation because they may be infected/contagious – can the crew expect to be quarantined as well?

Why isn’t the RAAF used for this proposed evacuation? After all they sign up in the knowledge they may need to operate in a hostile environment and with the attendant risks – it’s part and parcel of being in the military.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:27
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Originally Posted by patagonianworelaud View Post
Why isn’t the RAAF used for this proposed evacuation? After all they sign up in the knowledge they may need to operate in a hostile environment and with the attendant risks – it’s part and parcel of being in the military.
It was mentioned in NZ that the RNZAF should be doing the job but the reply was that approvals for military airplanes took a looong time compared to approvals for a civilian airplane
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:42
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What duty of care does an operator have in regards to crew operating into Wuhan?
Basically there is none required while the government provide the company an out by denying the severity.

From what we've seen recently, airlines are reluctant to acknowledge the threat on either international or domestic flights within Australia. And as incidences of this virus spread to other countries, we will be receiving infected individuals from everywhere, not just China.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:54
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Originally Posted by gordonfvckingramsay View Post
Basically there is none required while the government provide the company an out by denying the severity.

From what we've seen recently, airlines are reluctant to acknowledge the threat on either international or domestic flights within Australia. And as incidences of this virus spread to other countries, we will be receiving infected individuals from everywhere, not just China.
The duty of care is enshrined in statute; clearly.

The Australian government has shown an incredibly lack of duty of care to Australian citizenry by not restricting anything.
The big donors to both sides of politics are most pleased.

In Europe and the US it is the airline unions pushing workplace health and safety, not airline management.
It is not a surprise that airlines are now cancelling China mainland flying for the duty of care is clear and their unions know it.

That the Australian government, airline Qantas and surprisingly the union representing flight crew continue to refute the likelihood of human to human transmission while it is now acknowledged that this does in fact occur:

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery.
This study is the German based one into asymptomatic transmission.
That it is spread without symptoms is a real concern.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:54
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The US has this morning banning all visitors who have even been to China recently, let alone direct flights.

Please do not parrot the nonsense that flu is a bigger threat than this particular corona virus. There are several articles today claiming just that, but they all say “for now” and they all are US-centric.

The flu infects from 3% to 11% of the US population annually. It kills just under 1 per thousand. Hence around 8000 deaths in the USA.it has a reproduction rate of around 1.28, which means that on average one person infects 1.28 more people.

THERE ARE FLU VACCINES, and some herd immunity, hence the low total infection rate of 3-11%

Coronavirus has no vaccines, and will not for about six months., and there is zero herd immunity anywhere because this is a novel virus: brand new, not seen before, no defences.

2019 nCoV (catchy name) is at least as infectious as flu, perhaps twice as much with R estimates of 1.8-3.6.
Coupled with the lack of immunity, this virus will travel faster than the flu.

It looks like the mortality rate is at least 2.5%, which means that it will kill around 25/1000.

So if this disease infects only as many people as the flu, it will kill 25 times more people. In the US alone thats >200,000. And thats the sunny estimate. It could actually be worse.

“But hey! Don’t worry yourself, keep spending” seems to be the crux of all of these happy horseshit articles

ON EDIT: READ THIS from the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

Last edited by Australopithecus; 31st Jan 2020 at 23:12.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:57
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ies-ignore-who

Read carefully 43 airlines stop flying to China, Singapore won’t allow in anyone who has traveled to China and America is quarantining anyone who has traveled to Wuhan for 14 days.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 22:59
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
The US has this morning banning all visitors who have even been to China recently, let alone direct flights.

Please do not parrot the nonsense that flu is a bigger threat than this particular corona virus. There are several articles today claiming just that, but they all say “for now” and they all are US-centric.

The flu infects from 3% to 11% of the US population annually. It kills just under 1 per thousand. Hence around 8000 deaths in the USA.it has a reproduction rate of around 1.28, which means that on average one person infects 1.28 more people.

THERE ARE FLU VACCINES, and some herd immunity, hence the low total infection rate of 3-11%

Coronavirus has no vaccines, and will not for about six months., and there is zero herd immunity anywhere because this is a novel virus: brand new, not seen before, no defences.

2019 nCoV (catchy name) is at least as infectious as flu, perhaps twice as much with R estimates of 1.8-3.6.
Coupled with the lack of immunity, this virus will travel faster than the flu.

It looks like the mortality rate is at least 2.5%, which means that it will kill around 25/1000.

So if this disease infects only as many people as the flu, it will kill 25 times more people. In the US alone thats >200,000. And thats the sunny estimate. It could actually be worse.

“But hey! Don’t worry yourself, keep spending” seems to be the crux of all of these happy horseshit articles

We need to be careful, actually bringing factual discussion risks Ad Hominen attack.
Completely concur, that short of the guillotine nothing will move the political class to give up their benefactors interests. Thus, until such time the door is open come on in.

If R0 is found > 3 then despite what the media think of President Trump, they are protecting their citizenry.
Ironically, in Iran, the government already banned all Chinese arrivals.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 23:02
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ies-ignore-who

Read carefully 43 airlines stop flying to China, Singapore won’t allow in anyone who has traveled to China and America is quarantining anyone who has traveled to Wuhan for 14 days.

No no, Dragon Man we are purveying FUD.
Those airlines that have stopped flying are only doing so for commercial reason is the line (collapsing load factors) touted.
Perhaps in part, but it is also a real awareness of two pertinent points:
  1. Workplace Health and Safety and the Unions pushing back
  2. The very real possibility that with an R0>2.5 this thing could well be a pandemic.




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Old 31st Jan 2020, 23:14
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The duty of care is enshrined in statute; clearly.
The problem here is that the duty of care requires action only where there is a perceived threat which, until our government declares that this is the case, will negate the need for a duty of care. Until that changes we will see our borders remain open. Compounding this is the virtual certainty that we now have potentially thousands of people moving through our country who have had contact with those who may be hosts to this virus.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 23:21
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Originally Posted by gordonfvckingramsay View Post
The problem here is that the duty of care requires action only where there is a perceived threat which, until our government declares that this is the case, will negate the need for a duty of care. Until that changes we will see our borders remain open. Compounding this is the virtual certainty that we now have potentially thousands of people moving through our country who have had contact with those who may be hosts to this virus.
Completely agree Gordon.

It is showing clearly who the government is concerned about. Hint not the nation.

If it continues to develop it may be that the hand is forced.
Or, if an unfortunate Qantas crew member falls ill.
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