Originally Posted by
AerialPerspective
I think the entire thing is a monumental overreaction. Some of the airlines that have suspended flights I'm sure are because of low loads. We are not talking about bubonic plague here, more people die of flu every year in Australia (which is a form of Coronavirus incidentally).
There's a bit of truth in the attached, although it is from a whimsical perspective. Just to balance out some of the panicking that's going on. I'm pretty sure I heard the WHO said the other day they do not recommend stopping flights.
https://thebeaverton.com/2020/01/rep...-jhM7WIcjOS5fc
The problem with the WHO is that it is a political organisation, it's second biggest donor is China.
With respect to influenza, what is its R0?
If you didn't know it is 1.28.
This thing is estimated between 2.4-2.5.
If you care to extrapolate through cycles transmission rates with this R0 you will very quickly concede that it is nothing like influenza.
The New England Journal of Medicine has published very good case study research on the person to person transmission event in Germany.
What is very interesting is:
1. Incubation period was short.
2. Asymptomatic transmission was confirmed in three cases
3. Point 2 was further confirmed in that several patients had no contact with the index patient.
Only three days ago certain organisations including the Australian government refused to concede that person to person transmission was possible.
If there are asymptomatic transmissions occurring outside China, then it begins to fit the criteria of pandemic.