Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Project Sunrise

Old 23rd Aug 2019, 03:31
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Not the 777-8

Originally Posted by tartare View Post
But epic flight this - I see Boeing have proposed a 777-8 variant to do it.
What mods might they make - less freight and additional belly tanks to boost the range?
The 777-8 has just been indefinitely postponed - officially by two years. It was going to be two years after the 777-9 that is now slipping to the right, so that would make any 777-8 more likely 2025 than 2024. It appears that a "777-8F" maycome before the passenger version in Boeing's plans, and that the -8 passenger version may never eventuate.

Leeham News is suggesting (https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/22/op...f-a-787-10er/, paywalled) that Boeing may now be shifting towards a 787-10ER as their answer. Since Air NZ recently selected the 787-10 for Auckland to New York, it seems they may have been offered an as-yet-unreleased Increased Gross Weight version. It may be much easier for Boeing to build a 787-10ER based on existing plans for a 787-10IGW rather than try to deliver a variant of the 777-8 when that base aircraft just might not be a goer.
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 04:08
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Leeham News is reporting that Boeing may now be shifting towards a 787-10ER as their answer.
I guess it depends what source you read/believe. This article suggests Boeing are offering a 777-9 with compensation paid for the reduced load until the -8 would replace it. Then keep the -9 as an A380 replacement.
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/...oject-sunrise/
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 07:34
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The test is useless.
Itís Only 3 flights. That is not science. Prior Fatigue studies sampled hundreds of flights.With multitudes of different crews.
The data is invalid with a meagre total of three.
The aircraft is not operating over to JFK or LHR direct so itís not even representative of the pattern.
Itís only sampling one sector home and not even a consecutive number of flying the same pattern.
It would be like doing one day of an early start in domestic and saying that early starts are easy. Except the reality is youíd do a 4 day trip of earlies and do rosters full of them.
If CASA and or AIPA accept this rubbish then it just shows how corrupt the system is.
Of course itís all reverse engineered window dressing just like the embarrassing polyester cheap Indonesian shirt test group.
At least the Polyester shirt test at least had a sample of 60!
Maybe CASA allow us to operate just one sector home then?
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 08:26
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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You would be AMAZED what you can do with data. Though long, there is an excellent blog post THE CONTROL GROUP IS OUT OF CONTROL. In it, the author describes a prestigious psychologist ,Daryl Bern, who tried his hand at "proving" parapsychology, and surprisingly, using the most rigorous methodology (Meta analysis of 90 randomised controlled trials) was able to demonstrate it existed. Bern's work is scrupulous.

Parapsychologists are constantly protesting that they are playing by all the standard scientific rules, and yet their results are being ignored Ė that they are unfairly being held to higher standards than everyone else. Iím willing to believe that. It just means that the standard statistical methods of science are so weak and flawed as to permit a field of study to sustain itself in the complete absence of any subject matter.
The point is, he kept upping the scientific bar as more "proof" is demanded, and delivered everything that was asked of him. Personally I don't believe parapsychology exists, however, I cannot use a scientific data argument to refute his work.

I have no doubt whatsoever, the "science" behind Project Sunrise will assure the regulators to a highly rigorous scientific standard, that indeed the operation is safe, just as parapsychology has been "proven".
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 08:31
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
I see Qantas are about to start research flights.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...22-p52jm3.html
How would they route SYD to LHR?
Take off and set heading 319 degrees and just keep going?
The Great circle route takes you across the South China Sea - right through the middle of China, up the top of Kazakhstan and down, across Western Russia then down through Estonia and the Baltic to Britain...
Stretch that string down to the south a little and it only adds a few hundred km to the trip.
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 23:51
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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It's not a proving flight as in the "good old days when Pontius was a Pilate and iron men flew wooden aeroplanes"

It's a proving flight for the press and the lucky 40 to go on it.

The embarrassing thing would be to drop in somewhere obscure when plans went awry.
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 10:12
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher View Post
You would be AMAZED what you can do with data. Though long, there is an excellent blog post THE CONTROL GROUP IS OUT OF CONTROL. In it, the author describes a prestigious psychologist ,Daryl Bern, who tried his hand at "proving" parapsychology, and surprisingly, using the most rigorous methodology (Meta analysis of 90 randomised controlled trials) was able to demonstrate it existed. Bern's work is scrupulous.



The point is, he kept upping the scientific bar as more "proof" is demanded, and delivered everything that was asked of him. Personally I don't believe parapsychology exists, however, I cannot use a scientific data argument to refute his work.

I have no doubt whatsoever, the "science" behind Project Sunrise will assure the regulators to a highly rigorous scientific standard, that indeed the operation is safe, just as parapsychology has been "proven".


The Chairman's lounge acceptance rate for regulators and politicians alike has far greater statistically relevant success rates...
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 10:23
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
The Chairman's lounge acceptance rate for regulators and politicians alike has far greater statistically relevant success rates...
Rated, you'd be more persuasive when you call for Qantas and CASA to take a rigorous, evidence-based approach, if you even pretended to do the same yourself.
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 11:30
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Whilst Alan is converting A321s to freighters, perhaps he could also send along these 787's to be fitted with drop tanks.

A secondary benefit could be had once the fuel is exhausted from these tanks they could then be filled with the passenger poo just before release - there must be some country we hate along the way on that long 19hr flight. He could also rename the project 'sunrise surprise'.
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 12:50
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So is the expert going to feature on these flights?
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Old 28th Aug 2019, 14:21
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Originally Posted by Blueskymine View Post
So is the expert going to feature on these flights?
The ďexpertĒ correspondent has generated this bit of verbal garbage to try and keep his self managed position as The Aviation Oracle going.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/...oject-sunrise/
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Old 28th Aug 2019, 16:56
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Originally Posted by Going Boeing View Post


The ďexpertĒ correspondent has generated this bit of verbal garbage to try and keep his self managed position as The Aviation Oracle going.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/...oject-sunrise/
And you would know better because.............?
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Old 29th Aug 2019, 13:03
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Originally Posted by Arthur D View Post
And you would know better because.............?
Arthur, you obviously havenít been following his missives over the years with many major faux pas.
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 23:39
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 00:13
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Originally Posted by kiwi grey View Post
...Since Air NZ recently selected the 787-10 for Auckland to New York, it seems they may have been offered an as-yet-unreleased Increased Gross Weight version. ...
You may have read more into that announcement they was actually there. The -10 has been selected for the 772 replacement, nowhere is it suggested that it was going to NYC - it can barely make LA.
Auckland - New York will be the job of the -9...
IGW is mooted for both versions up to 260T apparently...
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 06:27
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Has the sun already set on Sunrise?
Thankfully young Patrick and the reliable SMH deliver the timely piece. After all that advertising spend is vital for SMH!

Mr Joyce declined to say what it wanted from pilots and would offer in exchange. In the past the airline has generally highlighted that new aircraft and new routes creates opportunities for promotions and pay rises for pilots by opening up new positions on the flight deck.
More for less and if they don't acquiesce Little Napoleon can blame:

1. Pilots
2. Regulators (if CASA actually demand science first)
3. Manufacturers
4. Insert excuse

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...01-p52ms5.html
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 22:28
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Why does anyone even think Boeing remotely care what Qantas wants? They certainly care what Southwest and Emirates wants but Qantas I dont think they give a [email protected] about.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 23:07
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Originally Posted by pilotchute View Post
Why does anyone even think Boeing remotely care what Qantas wants? They certainly care what Southwest and Emirates wants but Qantas I dont think they give a [email protected] about.
Precisely.

If an order were ever to materialise from Fort Fumble (other than for JQ) it might total 12 aircraft.
Outside home market myopia, Qantas is a shell of itself. Its presence in Europe an oddity.
Were an aircraft to be ordered, it will be off the shelf and already in service with many airlines worldwide.

Observers will remember the spin surrounding the "first" Qantas 787, the game changing aircraft. LN of 615 was hardly revolutionary and the journalists on their junket were told to look away from the hardstand area where Jetstar 787-800 sat on static display.



The reality is that it creates column inches in the daily rags, it gives the appearance of doing something and also provides a nice implied threat during contract season.
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Old 5th Sep 2019, 01:03
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ďItís presence it Europe is an oddityĒ

Rated De, there are more Qantas planes in Europe than European planes in Aus. Last time I looked BA had one flight a day to Australia and nobody else any (except code share), Qantas at least doubles that. But I do agree both Boeing and Airbus probably donít care about Qantas as itís recent track record of converting orders is atrocious.
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Old 5th Sep 2019, 09:16
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Originally Posted by engine out View Post
“It’s presence it Europe is an oddity”

Rated De, there are more Qantas planes in Europe than European planes in Aus. Last time I looked BA had one flight a day to Australia and nobody else any (except code share), Qantas at least doubles that. But I do agree both Boeing and Airbus probably don’t care about Qantas as it’s recent track record of converting orders is atrocious.
British Airways has a solitary Australian flight, down from two a few years back.
Until the recent past, BA was run poorly by Little Napoleon's second cousin, Willie Walsh. Is there a pattern? /sarc. Although, Alez Cruz has managed to make it worse.

Until "terminal decline" was the Fort Fumble buzz word, there were four daily Qantas flights to London and another to Frankfurt.
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