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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

Old 17th Feb 2018, 19:06
  #101 (permalink)  
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It seems QF may have discovered how much ROIC is TOO much......

By my recollection, over the last 20 odd years, the only time new fleet have been ordered (as against paid for and delivered) is when a change of leadership is immanent.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 23:22
  #102 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Derfred View Post
Ok, so according to Rated, attempting to organise pilots is a waste of time. The only successful strategy is chinese whispers to not answer the phone. Yep, management are going to be shaking in their jocks, Rated. You da man.
What needs to be understood is that they wonít be shaking in their boots at any industrial action and they wonít give in to any because they canít afford to. This is the single most important thing you need to understand and I donít know why so many have such difficult seeing it for its simplicity and obviousness.

You would be better advised capitalising on rhe current good state of Qantas in your EBA to make some contract gains, rather than some half baker industrial anger over something you canít control and which are long term beneficial to the company. I donít have high hopes though.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 01:39
  #103 (permalink)  
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they won’t give in to any because they can’t afford to.
If I search hard enough I can find some common ground with Qf management! With borrowings around 70% equity (without the Jetstar aircraft back on the books) and no desperately needed aircraft, there is only just enough money left to pay bonuses. There will either be a mountainous (insurmountable?) pile of debt to sort out 20 years of mess, or the airline will cease to exist.

You would be better advised capitalising on rhe current good state of Qantas
The current good state of Qantas sure can't last! I'm staggered it's withstood being raped for so long! Lucky it's a near monopoly...
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 02:44
  #104 (permalink)  
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A show of 'force' at a union meeting is not taking action. It may be a waste of time, given that there is little room for any prescribed action.

The company are dictating dance steps, the union was caught completely off guard during Christmas and New Year when the 457 Visa issue appeared in the media 28 December 2017.

Have a good read of the Fair Work Act it is very quickly evident that other than filing the matter with FWA, there is little 'organising' a group of pilots will achieve. You could ask if they have or are filing a motion with FWA.

Otherwise, enjoy the day, catch up with your friends, have your beers and tell a few stories. It may be a good day out.

You would be better advised capitalising on rhe current good state of Qantas in your EBA to make some contract gains, rather than some half baker industrial anger over something you can’t control and which are long term beneficial to the company.
Au contraire Justin, this 457, Jetconnect and Network is designed precisely to ensure that the pilots do not notice the leverage a global shortage generates and as ever attempt to control labour unit cost.

Last edited by Rated De; 18th Feb 2018 at 02:58. Reason: objectivity
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 08:37
  #105 (permalink)  
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Rated, sorry for my tone, but my response was aimed at your defeatist attitude that an SGM is a waste of time.

Effective industrial battles in todayís environment are won by baby steps. Never take too big a bite, but keep biting. This has been QFís strategy for years now, and itís been working reasonably well.

The same strategy can be exercised by the workforce, but it takes well-thought strategy, long term planning and as close as possible to 100% support of the workforce.

An SGM is not a waste of time, it is simply one of those baby steps, or little bites, as part of a longer strategy. It is also very useful in conveying accurate information rather than relying on the rumour mill (or prune), and also evaluating the support of the membership for whatever strategic plans that might be available.

I can guarantee you that whilst QF wonít be too concerned that AIPA is holding an SGM and that X number of pilots turn up to drink beer, it doesnít go unnoticed either. Sometimes it even makes the news, although I seriously doubt this one will. I can also guarantee that QF will have spies turn up and will be very interested in what is said at this meeting.

I, for one, will most certainly be attending, and I am very interested in not only what the elected representatives and IR advisers/lawyers have to say on the subject, but also what the general feeling of my peers is - itís a biggish airline, and I only fly and socialise with a small subset. AIPA needs to know too - there is no point our Association heading down a path, no matter how well thought out, if it doesnít have good support of the workforce. They made that mistake once in a certain failed EBA. Oh, and I might have a beer too.

The baby step campaign prior to the lockout some years ago was a good example of an effective industrial campaign. What let it down was that other unions got on the bandwagon and couldnít help themselves - they started taking bites that were too big. While pilots were wearing red ties, other unions were publicly promising to kill the airline. Once that started affecting bookings, their (and consequently our) fate was sealed. A fatal mistake.

Pilots have been marginalised many times in the recent past due to lack of organisation. Please donít make out that any attempts to improve that situation are a waste of time - not something we need to hear from a colleague.

Do you think QF would be making the sudden threats that have just surfaced (via emails from execs, dial-ins, roadshows) if they werenít in some way concerned about the potential pilot reaction?

Regards, Fred

Last edited by Derfred; 18th Feb 2018 at 09:10.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 21:16
  #106 (permalink)  
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The IEA (International Energy Agency) agrees.

  • The world consumes 30 billion barrels of WTI crude a year.
  • The world discovered 550 million barrels per month.
  • The draw down on reserves was accelerated.
  • The 'replenishment rate reserves for Oil and Gas was 11%
  • Oil demand rises 1.3 million barrels per day.

This information is publicly available and accessible.

The smartest guys in the room would know this if half competent.

Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 21:40
  #107 (permalink)  
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The last line to me is the most important in the above post ď Qantas needs a new fleetĒ. Not Qantas domestic not Qantas international but the whole of Qantas needs a new fleet down to the 737s domestically plus a new wide body for domestic. They rave on about new services to Bali, FFS a 737 from Melb , Syd, what a joke. The airline is so short of airframes its a joke, thatís without getting into fuel efficiency. Personally I think oil will go higher further hurting the airline further. Itís like a rolling snowball , it gets (the problem) larger and larger as they delay the inevitable decisions that need to be made. All this is without the prospect of 3 747s going early next year, however I think the Einsteinís have that covered with increasing utilisation on the remaining 7 been increased to 19 hours a day, and if thatís the case they are smoking some strong s##t. 😂😂😂
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 21:47
  #108 (permalink)  
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if thatís the case they are smoking some strong s##t. 😂😂😂

'When you decline to implement rigorous discipline in your strategic and capital management, eventually the market notices and implements it for you!' - Anon

Perhaps the market is beginning to notice.
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Old 21st Feb 2018, 21:24
  #109 (permalink)  
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And the share buybacks continue

..Qantas also announced $500 million in shareholder returns, through an on-market share buy-back round of up to $378 million and a 7Ę a share interim dividend.

“After several years of consistent performance, we now have a lot of momentum behind us," chief executive Alan Joyce said.

"Today’s result comes from investing in areas that provide margin growth and a network strategythat makes sure we have the right aircraft on the right route."
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Old 21st Feb 2018, 21:59
  #110 (permalink)  
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So Leigh around $1.75 billion on share buy backs already...

For shareholders, we continue our focus on building long term value. The board has announced a further $500 million of capital will be returned Ė comprising a 7 cent per share dividend, unfranked, and another buyback worth up to $378 million.
This additional buy-back is expected to bring the total reduction of shares on issue to 24 per cent since 2015. Thatís almost a quarter of our capital base.

So about AUD $ 2.6 billion on pumping a share price...

It sure ain't the Qantas Sale Act stopping you buying a fleet!
Have a look in the mirror Leigh, it is that guy looking back at you that is the problem!
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 02:24
  #111 (permalink)  
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The IEA (International Energy Agency) agrees - Rated de

true enough.

Hubbert's curve is valid, however the wildcard has been the oil industries investment in EOE as the long term pricing of oil was climbing. That resulted in a deferral of the pain of the Hubbert curve. Liquid hydrocarbons remain the foundation of the civilisation we have on this here 3rd rock. There is a finite amount of the stuff gifted to us from the fauna/flora of ages past, and currently, we are not achieving effective direct conversion of any energy source into a storage medium as useful as liquid HC's. Capturing sufficient energy to provide an effectively renewable fuel supply is nowhere near in our future. The best options that exist, those that give us 20,000 years to sort out our problems are mired not in technical issues, but in political ones from lack of comprehension within the political masters as what is and what is not a safe system. The moving of the goal posts ever advancing in time in our current experience, which builds an expectation that the irrational use of energy on the planet can continue indefinitely has the potential to bite in the end. Historically, the problem with any system is it's limited ability to cope with change, specifically the rate of change. Given enough time, we can change what we do, but only if time is adequate to address the problem and implement the remedial actions. Every day we find new reasons not to implement change, and in fact we entrench the belief that there is no problem; the same as a frog luxuriating in a simmering sauce pan. We are in the halcyon days of low cost fuel at this time, where it is not a driving factor, even when it is between 24% and 50% of the total costs of the industry dependent on operational structure.

Hubbert did not incorporate the flexibility of the system in respect to exploration, EOE development, and elasticity of demand from economic slowdown/recession etc, which has been our saving grace to date, he looks like a pessimist until we exceed the ability of the system to accomodate the supply side constraints. The global economy is build around a house of cards; exchange rates float determined by a change of a fraction of the total currency in circulation, much as house prices, business valuations etc, they are all built on confidence in the system, and we accept that an appraisal based on a fraction of a percent of total value has meaning, and it does, until it doesn't.

Malthus wrote in various essays and manuscripts from 1798 onwards hinting on the inability of society to manage growth in a responsible manner, where there is an abundance of food, the population will grow to consume that. Today, our markets revel in growth, and despair of recessions, however if we were considering, say, cancer, that would not be the case. In the 50's a herd of wild animals in a remote island off the west coast of Scotland were left to their own devices, and in the absence of any immediate constraints, grew exponentially to a point where there population collapsed, and were nearly completely extinguished. Sustainability is not derided if a catastrophic collapse has occurred and has been recognised, and survived.

Does QF need new planes? why not. That will cure everything.

In the short term, the Delta fleet planning tactic which Qantas is similar to is valid, so long as fuel costs don't spike. The A380 is not such a bad aircraft for the ultra long haul, if that is what yo have to do, and as I have said before, the recent metric of efficiency used to consider relative efficiency is poor in method and application, Breguet range equation gives a rational basis for analysis of efficiency, pretty sure that is what Boeing intimates in their Jet Transport Performance Methods manual (Blake, 2009).

Its a nice day outside, time for some red wine.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 06:32
  #112 (permalink)  
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It has not been lost upon me that Jetstar are getting the reinvestment in shorthaul aircraft. Jetstarís fleet age is 8.2 for the A320ís and Qantas has a fleet age just above 10 years. Just one day will they put Qantas ahead of Jetstar?

Qantas made 87% of the profit yet we are reinvesting $2.2 Billion in Jetstar

With a closer look at the figures there is an $82 million black hole. Looks like itís in the Jetstar International business.

Last edited by angryrat; 22nd Feb 2018 at 06:49.
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Old 22nd Feb 2018, 23:39
  #113 (permalink)  
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With a closer look at the figures there is an $82 million black hole. Looks like itís in the Jetstar International business.
It is precisely despite JQ possessing more aircraft than the parent that the JQ segment is not broken down into domestic and international , yet Qantas is.

AASB 8 gives 'management discretion' to report segments with some parameters. Ever wonder why they 'choose' not to break out JQ into segments?

Astute readers will remember Qantas management chose to break out Qantas Domestic and International into two distinct operating segments back when Qantas international was 'apparently terminal'

Qantas need a new fleet
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 05:27
  #114 (permalink)  
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Astute readers will remember
It's the financial journalist that remember what they were just told or just read in their press releases, that are one of your major issues.

Take the Ch 9 news last night, Ross Greenwood when reporting on the QANTAS profit and mentioned the 'pilot strike'. (note, I didn't take a great deal of notice, it was just background noise but he mentioned the airline shut down in same sentence)

Many listeners would automatically hear that and think there was a strike and perhaps have negative thoughts about the pilots.

It doesn't help when and AJ can pick up the phone anytime and speak with these journalists who will tell AJ's story to a large audience.
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 12:20
  #115 (permalink)  
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And don't people remember "pilot strikes"!!
A near neighbor ( who frequently tells me how overpaid pilots are --- based on media figures that quote the package for the QF DFO as if everybody is paid that) was recently reminding me of being on strike in that little matter in '89.
That QF was never involved in '89 is something he doesn't want to hear, "all pilots were on strike in '89" is his bottom line, that I actually worked for QF as a pilot in '89 cuts no ice.
Don't disturb him with facts, his prejudices are settled. And many people share his take on the world.
The public misconceptions about "pilots", carefully fostered by QF PR, is remarkably effective and well entrenched.
"Pilot bashing" and "doctor bashing" is always good politics over incomes, and just look at the effectiveness of the Shorten campaigns right now --- stick it to the "rich bastards". Tax the hell out of "rich bastards" and something called "business", enterprise and profit are dirty words.
Please don't be pedantic about the choice of words, just accept the message: "50% of the population is of below average intelligence".
Tootle pip!!
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Old 23rd Feb 2018, 23:04
  #116 (permalink)  
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Please don't be pedantic about the choice of words, just accept the message: "50% of the population is of below average intelligence".
Tootle pip!![/quote]
I didnít realise you were an optimist!
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Old 24th Feb 2018, 01:54
  #117 (permalink)  
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Pilot bashing

I was at a party one evening being berated by some semi drunk bloke about my ďridiculous salaryĒ and the fact that just I sit there and ďwatch the autopilot do my jobĒ. My reply to this bloke (who worked behind a desk and also made a lot of money) was, ďI can do my job without my computers. Can you?Ē He left shortly after that.

We ďdo nothingĒ until there is a problem, then itís pilot error.

Apologies, I digress.
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Old 25th Feb 2018, 23:32
  #118 (permalink)  
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Now it makes complete sense why Mr Joyce and Qantas, despite a big write off ensuring they actually pay no tax would 'champion' more corporate tax cuts!


Buyback announcements are up 22%, but capex plans are up just 3%
Self interest....again!

Must have another read of the remuneration reports to see when the next big pay day is for certain insiders..

Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 26th Feb 2018, 21:43
  #119 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LeadSled View Post
The public misconceptions about "pilots", carefully fostered by QF PR, is remarkably effective and well entrenched.
Go peruse the ďbogan bashingĒ in the thread on the Network A320s.

Itís truly remarkable why anyone could possibly consider pilots to be overpaid underworked complainers...

Pilots in the US seem to have a much better reputation than here but Iíve never seen them complaining about the red necks who pay their wages. It has to be a QF PR conspiracy.
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Old 27th Feb 2018, 03:45
  #120 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by TBM-Legend View Post
But according to the experts on PPRuNe its OK for Virgin Australia to be 90% foreigned owned!!!
That's not the point, VA International is 51% Australian owned. The Ownership cap applies to the whole airline in the case of Qantas not just the international part. That's what they're complaining about. However, mutliple unrealised dubious ventures in Asia might have also allowed some capital for use on fleet renewal. I'm not convinced is as bigger problem as has been made out, just because one so-called 'analyst' has expressed an opinion. I would say the bulk of the 737-800 fleet is quite young, the 747s are old and are scheduled to be retired, probably with more 787-9s so that will lower the average fleet age.
No one ever complains about the fact that VA does virtually zero maintenance in Australia either yet QF gets a bashing everytime they buy a rivet from overseas.
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