Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Pilot shortage

Old 8th Mar 2018, 18:55
  #761 (permalink)  
 
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It will, just give it a bit of time. Australian market is minuscule compared to US/Europe/Asia, so naturally, effects of the shortage were less pronounced for the last couple of years. But with more and more doors opening for low hour pilots overseas - HRs will find very quickly that there are no more people in that waiting line.
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 19:46
  #762 (permalink)  
 
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HRs will find very quickly that there are no more people in that waiting line.
I can't wait for Karma pay back
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 19:55
  #763 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Centaurus View Post
Mate of mine got into Ansett about the same era with similar hours and those hours were on Tiger Moth and Wackett Trainer and no instrument rating. Retired as a 767 captain.
Might be the same bloke as it was with Ansett-ANA!
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 22:57
  #764 (permalink)  
 
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Conceptually if studied one notices that the Low Fare Airline and indeed the Corporate model has TRANSFERRED the cost to the employee.

Whether it is for a mobile phone (to be contactable) to Type ratings companies have enjoyed transferring the cost to the employee. This was all predicated on Unlimited Supply.

In the extreme cases, companies like Ryanair and Uber treat the employee as a contractor. The contractor provides their own Superannuation, holiday loading and sick leave etc. Labour unit cost, particularly with the ancillary support services like remuneration (payroll/leave/benefits) no longer need consequently fell! Recently the UK ruled that Uber drivers are employees.....

Pilots are a vital ingredient to an airline, for without pilots, those expensive aircraft generate zero revenue sitting on the ground.

Smarter airlines realising the demographic structural shortage and are moving away from adversarial IR models.

Interestingly those costs once TRANSFERRED to the employees, including type ratings are now correctly being absorbed by the company as a COST of BUSINESS.

This is not a result of benevolence, it is necessity. There is a real sustained and accelerating shortage.

There is a growing and obvious shortage which is not as Mr Booth from the AFAP alleges, and I paraphrase 'part of the business cycle'

Whilst no one is advocating ambit claims from unions. Unions ought understand the shortage and the leverage it delivers to restore balance to their members remuneration and life balance./ s
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 23:08
  #765 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by framer View Post
Maybe it’l go full circle. The USA will start head hunting Australian pilots and Australian Airlines will have to take C152 pilots and invest some time and money in them
I know of three guys, mid to late 30's who left the industry in the 90's for whatever reason and went on to forge very successful careers outside of aviation. CPL, instrument rating, passes in ATPL subjects etc

I wonder how many others are out there that could be encouraged to return by airlines if HR got off their bums and put a program together. Wouldn't that be a whole lot easier than starting a cadet scheme - oh that's right the airlines wouldn't make any money out of it.

Unfortunately there is a workforce trend in this country. Nobody wants to re-train because it's claimed it's expensive. Everything comes back to the mighty dollar, yet the advantages are far overlooked.

I was told there are 30,000 trained, but not active teachers in NSW alone yet teachers are still on the skilled occupations list for migration.
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 23:59
  #766 (permalink)  
 
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Well said Rated De! I’d say that a “zero revenue” is a best case scenario though. These things are mindnumbingly expensive to have laying around. One airframe grounded for a few days due to a lack of pilots would cost the salary of a captain.

As for the AFAP softening the potentially devastating effect of the shortage, that’s no surprise at all. So I’m told, the AFAP almost got a dog of an agreement voted up recently, in this climate!!!
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 00:02
  #767 (permalink)  
 
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It's nice as an employee to imagine employers falling over themselves to attract talent their way.

However, reality is that employers will put anyone in the back or right seat that the regulator will allow them to. This might be a 200 hour pilot who has just left school with a potential return of service of 50 years. There will never be a shortage of 18 year olds willing to accept this proposition. There are cadet schemes running all over this country and the world that prove this.

Having said that, the cream of the school leavers will carefully analyse the career options and quickly work out that aviation isn't what it was and that other career paths are a more stable and less risky solution. I've seen this first hand. Does this matter to employers? Not really, they just need a bum in the seat and the rest is the Captain's problem.

In short, there will be more opportunities for low hour and less experienced pilots but conditions won't go back to the good ol' days.

Places like Asia and the Middle East need to offer compelling money because they are growing rapidly, they need experienced crews and its hard to attract these people from Western cultures. Still, the risk this poses is enough to stop the vast majority of experienced crews from leaving the West.

Once the kids have left home and retirement is on the horizon then certainly the proposition becomes more tantalising. The only other circumstance is a younger gambler who says they simply cannot sustain another 20 years of 12 hour duties, roster changes, crap hotels and crap food.

The war on conditions will continue on forever just have a look at the new kid on the block:Norwegian Air.

In the end, before we are one day replaced, there will be bare minimum experience with barely interested crews being saved over and over by automation and mum and dad down the back will still go for the cheapest possible ticket. Manuals will get thicker and thicker with procedures to cover every possible eventuality that was once covered by skilled pilots applying airmanship that was taught, learned and honed over decades and decades. It never ceases to amaze and in some way hurt me to share a cockpit with people that despise their career choice.

The Al Haynes', Chesley Sullenbergers and many others alike will be something for the history books, 60 minutes and Warner Brothers in the future.



Last edited by Berealgetreal; 9th Mar 2018 at 04:49.
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 07:28
  #768 (permalink)  
 
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Why stuff round being a pilot, when the MFB get their new EBA up in Victoria- a very cruisy lifestyle for being a firey.
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 08:28
  #769 (permalink)  
 
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Might be of interest to some;

https://www.2gb.com/dick-smith-chine...plete-madness/
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 20:54
  #770 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Foxxster View Post
It actually works fine for everybody involved:
1. Chinese airlines will get their schools and their pilots. All of them on OZ license initially.
2. CASA will be reporting an increase in newly issued licenses and will be patting themselves on the back for an amazing job done.
3. HRs will continue denying the fact that the most of new CPL holders were trained for and will be absorbed by Chinese airlines.
4. Locals will finally get their shortage

Honestly, all above would have been just a joke if my old instructor wouldn't have put his school for sale. Guess who are the buyers?
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 22:35
  #771 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Foxxster View Post
Mr Smith says we must prioritise our Australian pilots over Chinese investment.
What about the amount of Australian flight and ground instructor and support jobs those flying schools will create? I would’ve thought this would’ve worked on the 2GB listener base but on a professional pilot forum?
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Old 10th Mar 2018, 13:01
  #772 (permalink)  
 
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on the 2GB listener base but on a professional pilot forum?
hard to tell the difference on a couple of these threads!! ☺
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 03:07
  #773 (permalink)  
 
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Dick Smith is a private pilot. He is no more an expert on aviation than Geoffrey Thomas.

But if he wants to put his money where his mouth is then perhaps some of the money he made from importing electronic components from a certain part of the world could be used to set up scholarships for Australian students. How many generations back do you have to go to be Australian enough for him.

His perceived Yellow Peril isn't the problem. Chinese students have created jobs and career opportunities for pilots to gain that valuable command time as well as provided employment in regional areas. It took Smith 20+ years to discover they had been operating at Merredin and still not a single tank in sight...not a student in sight either as it's been a year since they operated.

The problem is the behaviour and price gouging of the federal airport leaseholders, CASA creating an uneven playing field by allowing RA-Aus to compete directly with GA flying schools and the Fee Help debacles, mind boggling incompetence and witch hunting by CASA; these are some of the things that have made so many schools have to close their doors.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 06:36
  #774 (permalink)  
 
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pilot shortage

Originally Posted by Stardoggas View Post
Rex is feeling the crunch. 40 captains have left for majors in the past 6 months while many others wait for their start dates. With their requirements as high as some of the majors they are being overlooked and it might be a little scary where they end up in the coming months.
The Regional Operators in this country have only themselves to blame for their pilot crewing problems. Career minded young men and women will always take advantage of spikes in recruitment levels, and the Regionals know that. There is however an abundance of highly experienced retired airline pilots in Australia who are fit, extremely capable, and readily open to providing their services. At most, a type rating and minimum online training, would see them up and away with no fuss.
Some would be happy to work full time, and others perhaps part time. These guys know how to get the job done, safely, efficiently, and at minimum cost. Ritzy interviews by talent departments ( the new buzzword) and psychometric testing is not required. Unfortunately, there is an enormous bias in this country by REGIONALS against retired airline pilots. One can only speculate as to the reasons, but most of them don’t pass the pub test. I refer to the likes of National Jet, Cobham, Skippers, Qlink, RFDS, VARA, Network, Corporate Air, Air North and indeed CASA. The retired network is alive with stories of applications submitted that were ignored without even the common decency of a reply. It would only take some serious imaginative thinking by the Boards of these operators to plug the gaps created by the major’s recruitment drive. Unfortunately,I have no confidence that the immature attitudes that are indemic in Australian Regional Aviation will change for the benefit of aviators who still want to work, and indeed the overall enhancement of safety in the industry.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 07:27
  #775 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post

Pilots are a vital ingredient to an airline, for without pilots, those expensive aircraft generate zero revenue sitting on the ground.

Smarter airlines realising the demographic structural shortage and are moving away from adversarial IR models.

Interestingly those costs once TRANSFERRED to the employees, including type ratings are now correctly being absorbed by the company as a COST of BUSINESS.

This is not a result of benevolence, it is necessity. There is a real sustained and accelerating shortage.

There is a growing and obvious shortage which is not as Mr Booth from the AFAP alleges, and I paraphrase 'part of the business cycle'

Whilst no one is advocating ambit claims from unions. Unions ought understand the shortage and the leverage it delivers to restore balance to their members remuneration and life balance./ s
So what would you have him say? Admit there is a structural shortage? Do you even realise that the very thing you’re trumpeting (Structural Pilot Shortage) is the very thing that the Airlines and Government will use to enhance the skilled visa program.

What you’re advocating will allow more overseas pilots into Australia on permanent residency visas, at the expense of the current generation of pilots, and at the expense of forcing Airlines to open up training academies and pay for training – you know, wear the risk of expensive pilot training.

Your agenda on here is as clear as it is misguided. Qantas will never be short of pilots (with the caveat that their useless ‘talent acquisition’ team doesn’t [email protected]#K things up any more than they already have). There will be increased recruitment, and there are be plenty of qualified applicants from cadets, GA, regionals, LCC’s, expats, and other airlines. How many Qantas pilots are leaving to work for other airlines? Paying more to a Qantas pilot does not change the age 65 requirements, medical requirements, or make them live longer to delay retirement. If you want better conditions, man up and take hard action – red ties and PA’s won’t cut it. Don’t try to pontificate and ham up a shortage that will result in permanent residency visas that will [email protected]#k the regional pilots’ prospects of improving their lot.

So the AFAP’s position is clear on the shortage; it’s cyclical – and can be solved with training and retention through better conditions in the operators it’s affecting (predominantly the regionals and GA, but extending to the LCC’s). If you read all of the AFAP’s press on this you’d understand they advocate both increased conditions and increased training.

What’s AIPA’s position? What public statements have they released? Are they advocating a structural shortage? Or are you the lone wolf and all the unions are wrong?

You bang on about Qantas’ ‘adversarial IR model’. I agree, it's adversarial, so why pretend that it will somehow revert to a more gentlemanly or dare I say progressive approach. Under current management the Marquess of Queensberry Rules don’t apply. If they want adversarial, give them adversarial. You know what it costs to ground an airline, get some mongrel in you and get adversarial.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 08:21
  #776 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Clare Prop View Post
Dick Smith is a private pilot. He is no more an expert on aviation than Geoffrey Thomas.
.
Really? Yes it was quite a while ago but by the sounds of it he has maintained a close eye on their operations since he left. Comparing someone who spent 4 years as head of or chairman of the regulatory body to an aviation journalist is somewhat disingenuous to say the least.

having been appointed by Prime Minister Bob Hawke to be Chairman of the Board of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) from February 1990 to February 1992. He also served as Deputy-Chairman and Chairman of the Board of the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA, the CAA's regulatory successor after the 1995 de-merger of the government's aviation operations including air traffic control) from 1997 until his resignation in 1999
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 01:56
  #777 (permalink)  
 
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I don’t know about the old fellas working the regionals. I found the multi sector days (up to 8) pretty tough in my 20s with no ground support.

I wouldn’t want to do it 65+ that’s for sure.

I personally love flying with the older guys and always learn a lot from them. After all, many of these guys earned their stripes flying with the guys who were the pioneers.

I don’t think it’s a solution though, and let’s face it. You don’t hang your hat up and then want to go fly a Saab to CTAFs in marginal weather. If you really wanted to fly, you could have stayed at least a domestic captain.
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 02:28
  #778 (permalink)  
 
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If you really wanted to fly, you could have stayed at least a domestic captain
Even better, if people still have the desire to REALLY fly during their retirement, offer them a way to become instructors down at the local flying schools (ie: make it easy for them and not have it cost an arm and a leg-or preferably, not cost anything), and have them address the shortage directly!
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 04:00
  #779 (permalink)  
 
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Reality check for job interviews
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 06:19
  #780 (permalink)  
 
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So what would you have him say? Admit there is a structural shortage? Do you even realise that the very thing you’re trumpeting (Structural Pilot Shortage) is the very thing that the Airlines and Government will use to enhance the skilled visa program.
Sorry Keith the 457 Horse bolted.

What’s AIPA’s position? What public statements have they released? Are they advocating a structural shortage? Or are you the lone wolf and all the unions are wrong?
As for keeping it quiet or 'lone wolf', go and google pilot shortage, it is an open secret.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/5502...ilot-shortage/

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...foreign-flyers


Having actually read the demographic shortage problem which is evident in literally every western economy it is not just pilots in demand.

3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2017

https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm


Union reps need to read the data and then maybe they will push back.

On this Keith we are in furious agreement:

You bang on about Qantas’ ‘adversarial IR model’. I agree, it's adversarial, so why pretend that it will somehow revert to a more gentlemanly or dare I say progressive approach. Under current management the Marquess of Queensberry Rules don’t apply. If they want adversarial, give them adversarial. You know what it costs to ground an airline, get some mongrel in you and get adversarial.
Until it starts costing them on the things they bother counting, union pleas for 'fair play' will be dismissed. It is the shortage that gives pilots leverage, it won't be Australian airline management.
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