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Old 27th Feb 2014, 01:23
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WHY?

Why indeed, why has the worlds Airlines gotten to a point where the business of moving people around this planet of ours is for most no longer sustainable?
Sure we know that it's not a global level playing field but below is still the reason why it's so.
There's currently a zillion threads running on QF & other Airlines so I thought it would be rather a good time to take time out from all the bickering all the 'they should have' they this they that etc. n& look behind the scenes of this now ugly unstable business.
QUESTION..................Why are the majority of Airlines especially here in our own backyard struggling?
GFC?
Not a level playing field?
Not enuf or no protection from the Govt?
Govt stuff-ups?
Fuel prices?
Mismanagement?
Wrong fleet type or two many types?
Too many fat cats at the top milking the profits?
Too many studies, surveys & consultants being done?
ALL of the above apply in one way or another but to me the single main base reason why we find ourselves amongst these pages watching QF self destruct for Eg is THE FARES ARE TOO CHEAP!!!!

If you had a business making scones for Eg & the cost of flour went up on a reg basis you either put up the price of the scones or reduce yr product costs in an attempt to stay in business. The trouble is the guy down the road with another scone shop keeps his prices the same or even sells cheaper in an attempt to close you down.......end result, NOBODY WINS & both businesses are at the brink of closing all because they have undercut each other to the point where it's no longer sustainable!

The QF "scone" shop is failing & the whole "scone" industry has only itself to blame.
At the end of the day there are only two core reasons as to why we have businesses of any nature, to sustain the way of life as we know it as in being employed & to make money for the owner/shareholder, (essentially one reason but there will always be 'them & us') that's it. Both are being eroded away not just in our crappy industry but ALL fields & the way we humans are going about this we won't have anything decent to leave future generations

Comments?
And lets not hone in on QF too much guys there's plenty of QF fodder already out there now!

Wmk2

Last edited by Wally Mk2; 27th Feb 2014 at 01:39.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 01:31
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ALL of the above apply in one way or another but to me the single main base reason why we find ourselves amongst these pages watching QF self destruct for Eg is THE FARES ARE TOO CHEAP!!!!
I remember my first overseas trip back in 1985, when I paid I think about $2200 for a return ticket on QF to London.

Fast forward nearly 30 years to today and I reckon I could probably still pay the same, maybe even less, for the same ticket.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 02:23
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Probably not a 'level playing field' I would imagine Wal.

Certain airlines from 'the sandpit' are alleged to obtain heavily subsidised fuel prices, and are 'govt backed' so that the finance is not a problem.

Heard on 6PR radio (Perth) today that shortly, there will be 3 such 'sandpit' airlines operating into / out of Perth - there are currently 2.

And no more 'rat' to Singapore....

Wages are vastly different in certain areas or zones of the planet - and some of these are not too far away...

And this latter point is not confined to 'our' industry - think 457 visa workers for the mining industry when there are plenty of unemployed locals - 'unqualified' maybe, but that is fixable..(?)

And...NOBODY in our gummint seems to really care!!
All they seem to care about is the next 3 years...What about the Nation???

Apprentices? The 'current 'red tape'? Our own industry 'ASIC' card???
CASA debacle of Regs costing more to comply with????
etc etc

Seriously, I am glad that I am at the stage where I can sit back and observe, and 'go fishin' - but I feel for my kids and grandies!!

No Cheers to the current system, but Rotsa Ruck to all who sail in her....

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Old 27th Feb 2014, 02:30
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The airline industry does seem to have crossed the profitability event horizon. The focus on market share reminds me of the supposed quote from a car manufacturer along the lines of "We lose money on every car we sell, but make up for it in sales volume".

If one was being cynical one might think each scone shop was hoping the the other would go bust first, leaving them the only shop in town. As Sir Terry said, the aim of business in not to be the best service, but to be the only service. Not that any scone shop would ever behave like that.

The big Banks and the financial sector in general seem to have gone the other way. Don't fight over the size of your share of the pie, rather make shure the pie itself keeps getting bigger. They know that if they start slashing charges, in the short term they will befit, but the others will have to match them, and the pie gets smaller. By accident or design they have also managed customer expectations very well, in that their customers almost expect to be ripped off.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 02:34
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Leaving out all the bull**** going on at Qantas, I really believe the carbon tax is part of the problem for airlines performing poorly domestically. Rex said that the reason why their net profit was down by 45% from the previous year was mostly because of the carbon tax. Same with Virgin Australia, there carbon tax bill was $47.9 million, and virgin are losing about $50 million per year (when you exclude the costs of investing in Skywest and Tiger). Look at Qantas, the carbon tax bill was $106 million. Sure, the carbon tax is not the only answer, but in the short term, it would help out the aviation industry if it gets abolished.

I know this link is a few years old but it's worth a read.

http://www.rex.com.au/NewspaperClip/...rbon%20Tax.pdf
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 02:45
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Certain airlines from 'the sandpit' are alleged to obtain heavily subsidised fuel prices
I worked for EK for a few years & not once did we tanker fuel out of Dubai, to any destination. If they get subsidised fuel, you would imagine that they would be tankering all the time.

Wages are vastly different in certain areas or zones of the planet - and some of these are not too far away...
Surely the greatest impact from this, is the cost difference for management & head office staff. A good reason to keep those areas lean. Perhaps they could be outsourced! AJ & his team could relocate to Bangladesh & be paid local wages there.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 03:01
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Too many airlines.

In general, aviation seems to be "rule of 2 to 3"

3 engine makers
2 wide body jet makers
2 regional jet makers
3 GDS
Most components, have the choice of 2-3 suppliers.
All above making decent returns

But then, 300+ airlines... not making decent returns.
Airlines doing OK - UPS/Fedex/DHL, where worldwide there are only really 3 integrators

Interestingly, US market seems to be getting much better now they are down to 4 big airlines domestically.

Politically, governments haven't allowed consolidation for passenger airlines - even though integrators, with their control of express logistics, are more important than passenger airlines to the economy.

If worldwide there were just 3-4 airlines, rather than 3-400, I think you would see a more stable & profitable industry.

This was starting to happen (Star/ Oneworld/ Skyteam consolidating airlines into 3 alliances) but the growth of the ME airlines has further destabilised things
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 04:00
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An interesting topic. I am old enough to remember the 2 airline policy which was a gravy train for TAA & Ansett (or even when it was Ansett-ANA). The stats from the era showed that about 20 percent of the Oz population flew more than once at the time. Following deregulation that figure has increased to 80 percent.

Back then subsidies were everywhere and just about all industries were protected which included aviation. That was totally unsustainable and for anyone who reckons we should be protecting our industries now I suggest you see just what it would cost you via your income tax. I bet you will change your mind.

What is apparent is that economies of scale required to keep the bottom line in the black are increasing. Whereas once we ran regional services with a subsidised F-27 then came Chieftains with deregulation; it crept up to 19 seat Metros and then 35 seat Dash 8 & SAABs'. Rex are already pointing the finger at unviability with what they have. Domestic services (& lets keep it in the jet age) have gone from 100 seat (or thereabouts) B727 up to 180 seat B738 & A320 & already the search is on for larger. The trend would appear to be less flights but bigger aircraft.

Internationally the trend is the same. From 115 seat B707 to gawd alone knows how many A380. QANTAS published an excellent guide to airline economics in 2007 (I think) which put into perspective how economies of scale were at work. Many basic questions were answered such as why there are so few discount seats on regional flights compared to overseas ones. The one constant is that capital expenditure necessary to keep the economies of scale going are increasing rapidly.

At present there is a capacity war going on between QANTAS and Virgin & as a consequence fares are dirt cheap. It can't be sustained and prices will rise as a consequence. Its what damage will be done in the interim that will be an interesting question. Already the QANTAS announcement today is one such example.

The Middle-East airlines do have some advantages but not as much as some have suggested. I do recall that one major advantage for one of them was the absence of company taxation which would normally account for 20 percent of the gross earnings. Another would be that they have draconian legislation to deal with any industrial issues.

The underlying factor is that Australian aviation is undergoing constant change. For those who look back on the halcyon days of the 2 airline policy and long for its return - forget it - its not going to happen. The whole nature of the industry is going to change and the cold winds of retrenchment and/or furlough is going to become a reality.

QANTAS will become an overseas owned airline. QANTAS domestic will service the J-curve and Perth only; the rest will get JetStar and JetLink; the pressure to cut costs will be constant and that includes wages; contracting out will be the norm. The challenge for the pilot groups will be to maintain safety.

Virgin will be glad to see the end of the capacity war as it needs to start putting runs on the board economically as its overseas owners are not going to continue funding its change from a low-cost to full service airline forever. It had to do it, the lo-co model doesn't work in Oz; even JetStar are starting to offer more. This will keep the pressure on the economics side.

The nature of the problem today is that the airlines really didn't undergo the radical reform that was necessary when the government of the day decided that protectionism had to go. QANTAS suffered when nationalistic fervour took hold when it was sold subject to the sale act that tied its hands but it could have still done more than it did. Virgin started out with the wrong business model and its costing heaps to change.

The reality of the future is that aviation is going to be just like any other job - no certainty of a future - constantly changing.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 04:01
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All good additional reasons there guys:-)
The level playing field or lack thereof can stem right back to protections & we have seen what free trade can do for our car industry it decimated it, right or wrong we live & work here in Oz at a local level, the Airline industry work the world over, there in lies the real challenges.

Just as a long shot here lets say the Govt imposed a same base fare for all Airlines leaving Oz to far away places inc our own Airlines that way it matters none how cheap the Sand pit carriers make a ticket at the end of the day it costs $xxxx to fly to say London with anyone it would just be the services or the add on's that are flexible to attract the customers. That would soon 'level' out the playing field here but boy would that kick up a stink for 'free trade' & also the possible abuse of the system as well!

More to come am sure but my thoughts are with the QF staff right now

Wmk2
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 10:33
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The banks are a particularly cohesive group that understand that the only people to benefit from competition are the consumers - i.e. the banks clients.
As a result, this tight coterie of bankers ensure that competition doesn't exist. Anytime a new bank or lending institution starts up, they ensure that they are bought out/merged with a large bank/taken over. End of the competition - even though they usually leave the nameplate on the purchased bank, to make it look like there's competition.

Airlines are no such cohesive group. Airlines can be started up by anyone, exactly like trucking, bobcat contracting, or hire cars. However, airlines carry some prestige when they are recognised as a strong representative of a particular country. All countries love to have their own "national carrier", in which they take great pride.

Some of those countries are inordinately wealthy. We're talking petro-dollars here. These countries see great advantage in owning some of the worlds biggest fleet of aircraft - because the more aircraft they own, the more oil products they sell to them. It's a win-win situation for them.

Basically, the airline industry is currently a race to the bottom. With many countries typically like India, where the national carrier owes the Govt $750B - and with its ever-increasing debt to the Govt - it will remain to be seen how long Govts of these countries will continue to throw vast sums at their respective airlines, just to keep their airlines name as a world major airline.

QF is only a sideshow to all this. The pax are the winners - and the losers are the "small" high-cost airlines such as QF, who will eventually wither and die on the vine because they do not have access to the unlimited funds that are continuously supplied by many countries Govts. If Abbott and Co "bail out" QF, it will only be a short-term thing, until the Australian Govt realises they are only in a race to the bottom, and they couldn't possibly match the funds, the Indonesians, the Singaporeans, the Chinese, and the Middle Easterners, are prepared to continue to throw at their airline operations.

The sad fact is that having vast sums of money at your disposal only ensures you can buy the latest and greatest and most fuel-efficient, and low-running-cost technology as regards aircraft.
QF are running the relay with a dumbbell strapped to one leg, with old aircraft, inefficient aircraft, high internal costs, Govt restrictions on what they can do - and of course - extremely poor management.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 13:21
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"We are not the cheapest, but we are the best"

That is the motto of my local pizza shop that has been in business for 30+ years. Firstly, he actually does sell a good product. Secondly, when a competitor introduced $5 pizzas he increased the price of his and improved the product, so while the other guy was selling more pizzas at slimmer margins, he was selling fewer but with a larger profit. The other guy eventually went out of business.

So the moral of this story is when caught in a race to the bottom don't take the lead.
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Old 27th Feb 2014, 17:15
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"The big Banks and the financial sector in general seem to have gone the other way. Don't fight over the size of your share of the pie, rather make shure the pie itself keeps getting bigger. They know that if they start slashing charges, in the short term they will befit, but the others will have to match them, and the pie gets smaller. By accident or design they have also managed customer expectations very well, in that their customers almost expect to be ripped off."
An unreasonable comparison. There are only four banking licenses in Australia and those four banks have a level of Government guarantee. It is a highly regulated industry which is effectively a cartel. Indeed our protected banking system and universal superannuation is the basis of our strong Australian economy.
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Old 28th Feb 2014, 00:02
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The whole business environment has changed and Australian airlines are simply going the same way as other industries.

You wouldn't set up a business manufacturing cheap electrical goods in Australia anymore as no matter how well you did you would be undercut by the Chinese.
The same with textiles, Bangladesh, Vietnam and China would always be cheaper.

The car makers are pulling out as well because of the small local market and high costs. It's cheaper to produce in South Korea or Thailand and ship the finished product here.

QANTAS can only compete on a select few international routes where it doesn't go up against competitors who offer a superior product at a lower price. As a high cost, end of the line operator with a long history of mismanagement and a strongly unionised workforce it won't fly against the modern hub airlines operating new fuel efficient aircraft from a lower cost base with no unions, competent management and an aviation friendly government.

At best QANTAS could be a small boutique airline along the lines of Air New Zealand if it got it's house in order.
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Old 28th Feb 2014, 02:10
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At best QANTAS could be a small boutique airline along the lines of Air New Zealand if it got it's house in order.
Sadly there are 2 things that make even this likely impossible. They have the wrong equipment (A380's). And they don't have an SE Asian partner.

Even with the EK tie-up, QF should have kept its Singapore hub to Europe. They could have used both EK and QF as feeder traffic from Australia to Singapore. Sadly for QF, the EK deal is one sided and not to QF's benefit. The blowout in QF Int losses proves this.

QF should probably give up on both Singapore and Hong Kong, they simply can't compete with SQ and CX frequency anymore. Maybe a tie-up with CX if they can ever get over the deep resentment on both sides.

Perhaps a last ditch attempt at a big push direct into China (daily to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou) where they may be able to establish a niche for better service, reputation.
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Old 28th Feb 2014, 05:00
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Air travel is a price sensitive commodity. The price of the ticket is usually a large part of a holiday so the consumer shops around as they have a bucket list of things to do on holiday that they can't afford…
So trading poor inflight service for a helicopter ride around New York is tempting.

I'm proud to say that I paid around $800 extra to fly the family on Qantas to LA last year.
The flight was full but we enjoyed good service on the new A380. After a nasty experience when the kids were toddlers on a foreign airline, my strategy is whenever possible to fly a carrier from a nation that has similar ethics and values as your home, should something go wrong. Particularly when travelling with kids.

I'm less proud to say that a year earlier we went to the UK on Royal Bruni because their last-minute fares, for four, were around $1600 cheaper than Qantas.

Everyone has a price!

I think Qantas need to promote their safety record Aussie style inflight service and the attractions, from a cultural experience, of flying with the nation's airline.

Over the years, they have perhaps spent too much airtime promoting the destination Oz, rather than the journey…


Mickjoebill
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Old 28th Feb 2014, 05:26
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One former Goldman Sachs analyst I spoke to laid part of the blame at the foot of the US EXIM bank.
He said they essentially make it real cheap for anyone to finance an aircraft.
Ergo - race to the bottom.
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Old 28th Feb 2014, 06:12
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I'm less proud to say that a year earlier we went to the UK on Royal Brunei
You were quite possibly being flown by Australian pilots as they are everywhere in this part of the world, so don't feel so bad as you are still providing work for your fellow country men.

If you were an airline looking for a country to set up shop in order to make money flying international routes I doubt you'd look twice at doing it in Australia.
You'd be looking at the Middle East or Asia instead as the places you'd base yourself in. Large local market (Asia), non stop to anywhere on earth giving connectivity (M/E), aviation friendly governments, employer favourable labour laws and lower costs (both).
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Old 28th Feb 2014, 09:59
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If you were an airline looking for a country to set up shop in order to make money flying international routes I doubt you'd look twice at doing it in Australia.
You'd be looking at the Middle East or Asia instead as the places you'd base yourself in. Large local market (Asia), non stop to anywhere on earth giving connectivity (M/E), aviation friendly governments, employer favourable labour laws and lower costs (both).
Well, certainly not today or in ANY country. the competition is far too keen and local authorities will tie up any applications to begin ops for years (unless you grease the palms). Even if the start up gains traction, obstacles will be put in the way to protect the local operator. Not much chance to make a profit.
Even if you got started using low salaried local staff to cut costs, you will get what you pay for in quality and safety. Expect the worst.
Low costs do not translate to proportional profit.....just losses.
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