Former concorde captain speaks out on erebus

[prospector]

If this aircraft was not in VMC the other flight crew would have taken over and ensured Collins would not be in charge of anything other than the interview chair in Gemmels office

Perhaps if Lucas was in the right hand seat things would have been done differently. As it was Cassin was aero club trained and Collins Air Force trained. At that time this could well have had some influence on the way things were done. It should not have, but who know's. There was an Airline Inspector from CAA scheduled to travel on the flight, but he had to cancel due family reasons I believe. If the crew were aware a CAA inspector was onboard would they have done things differently?? for my money I would say yes.

[ampan]

Deadhead: The F/O was a yes man. He should have intervened, by politely saying "didn't you say that is was very hard to tell the difference between the cloud and the ice?" The other F/O was not a yes man, but he was stuck back in the cabin with the passengers.

[deadhead]

Well, the flight engineer was most definitely NOT a yes man. The complete opposite in fact. But yes, I concede that these are valid points that might explain the dynamic on that flight deck that day. But we aren't talking about determining who should take crew rest first, the argument is whether the aircraft was VMC. Yes man or no yes man, I can't believe the others would have let Collins enter IMC deliberately.

[prospector]

deadhead,

Cannot find anything that specifically states the AINS to be used for azimuth info,yet.

From the Bolt/Kennedy Report.

In relation to the criticism that the flight route was planned over Mt Erebus, an active volcano, Bolt/Kennedy responded by saying that the duty of CAD was not to specify the route; that was for the airline and CAD's job was to set the conditions that would ensure the safety of the flight. This clearly related to the fact that the minimum safe altitude named in the Civil Aviation requirements for the flight was 16,000ft until the aircraft had passed over the McMurdo base station at which time it could descend to 6,000ft provided that the visibility was satisfactory, that is, in visual conditions. They then went on to make comment in regard to the term Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) in its application in the Antarctic regions where unique visibility conditions could exist.

So the argument as to whether the aircraft was VMC prior to reaching McMurdo station is not really relevant, it was a mandatory requirement to maintain above MSA until passed McMurdo Base Station,

[Brian Abraham]

What astounds me however is how little attention is paid to the post accident actions of ANZ and the Government.

Read 'Darker Shades Of Blue', it can be applied perfectly to ANZ and the NZ Government of that day. We bang on predominately in life about 'accidents and rogue pilots', but to me more frightening or more worrying are the holistically rogue airlines and rogue governments.
Is it any different today? Rogue regulators, rogue governments and Ministers offices and rogue senior airline executive managers. These elements all exist today, with evidence 'popping up on the radar' on an almost weekly basis. This industry is a block of Swiss cheese and the holes just keep on aligning themselves. The 'fish rots at the head', the head of powers in fact, and there has been a stinking carcas laying around for ages. Erebus was Erebus, we can't turn back the clock. The sad thing is I don't see any improvement or lessons learned within in the rogue executive airline management, government or regulatory bodies in AUS/NZ. Nothing to date, in the past 30 years changes my opinion that the next disaster has been and is lining itself up.

Tick tock

gobbledock, how right you are Sir. Unfortunately. Trouble is, we even have people posting here who are of the belief that swiss cheese and holes is all nonsense.

[prospector]

There is no doubt Swiss Cheese and holes lining up have their place, but when SOP's and CAA rules are flagrantly breached, for whatever reason, then that must be the major cause of this crash. It was one mans decision to carry out that descent when and where it happened.

[deadhead]

Prospector:

So the argument as to whether the aircraft was VMC prior to reaching McMurdo station is not really relevant, it was a mandatory requirement to maintain above MSA until passed McMurdo Base Station,

Agreed, once again I was just discussing with ampan the weather differences between the 3 flights in question. Thanks for the information re the route planning.

ampan:

He should have intervened, by politely saying "didn't you say that is was very hard to tell the difference between the cloud and the ice?"

I wouldn't get too strung up on that, I believe that that indicates there was a reasonable horizon at the time. It's not like he said "I can't tell the difference...!" I'm more perplexed because the FO didn't say "hang on a minute, they offered us a radar letdown to which you said yes. What the hell's going on now, chum?"

[Ornis]

No, Brian, we do not believe the Gruyere model is all nonsense, but it is a model or analogy, not reality. Nevertheless, you want to talk cheese, let's talk cheese.

To see through the block of cheese a hole in each "slice" must line up. Let us suppose a man is put in charge of keeping each hole in its right place. Regardless of who failed to keep the first x holes out of alignment, who didn't guard the last slice? If the man had been attentive to the last slice, regardless of the others, would the crash have occurred? Yes/No.

You seem unwilling to admit the accident, complex as it might be, can be analysed. Surely you can see a fruit salad is made of apples, oranges, pears, peaches, passion fruit ...

The only difficulty is apportioning blame, because it is difficult to get any agreement as to how each "hole" is weighted, or whether apples contribute more than oranges to the fruit salad. That is why we have judges. Of cheese, fruit and the law.

In this case, why should we bother deciding what is more important in the fruit salad? Air NZ was responsible for providing a safe environment and Collins was responsible for flying the aircraft safely.

Air NZ is 100% to blame for a dysfunctional operation and Collins is 100% to blame for flying into a mountain he knew was somewhere but couldn't see. I mean, he wasn't playing a game of hide and seek, was he?

[ampan]

Deadhead: I'm referring to FL180, which is where they were when the fatal descent began. At that point, they were above MSA, flying on instruments, the only one being the AINS: Perfectly acceptable - you could cross the Pacific on the AINS, without even bothering to cross-check against stars or beacons. No need for a horizon, given the autopilot and the HSI. They could have been flying in the dark.

Throwing the aircraft into a figure-of-eight descent below MSA changed everything. Even a private pilot with 100 hours on the clock would get that point.

[Ornis]

deadhead, I can't believe what I am reading. I mean, do you see this "reasonable horizon" right up until you hit the mountain? Do tell.

As has already been discussed so eloquently by remoak, VMC and a positive visual reference are not the same thing.

For goodness sake, I am only an old playtime pilot, even I know flying visual you have to see where you are and where you are going. If you can't you can try your luck if you like and we all know what happens.

[deadhead]

Relax Ornis, I'm on your side. If there was no horizon even the most yessy of yes men would have said "Where's the f u c k i n g horizon." Having said that, I agree with what prospector said. VMC/IMC it doesn't matter... Notwithstanding the briefing instructions, in fact forget about those, It was a poor decision to descend to get below a 2000 ft overcast, even if the visibility was a good 40 miles...especially if a radar descent was offered, you agreed to it, then suddenly without warning you decide to orbit visually down through a hole. That isn't what a strong commander ought to be doing. Where was the rebriefing? Discussion?? That is the problem I have. An extremely poor method, Captain.

[ampan]

What is the difference between Jim Collins' performance and that of JFK Junior? (who has no flight safety award named after him).

JFK Jnr deliberately breached VMC minima and killed himself, his wife, and her sister.

Jim Collins deliberately breached VMC minima, and killed himself, his crew, and 240 passengers.

Brian Abraham can crap on all he wants about the clear air, but whatever country one might care to look at, the VMC minima rules use the word "visibility". Can you fly VMC in gin clear conditions with you eyes closed? Of course not.

[CaptainMidnight]

Recommendations for a good book on the subject?

I've seen a list of titles on the erebus.co.nz site.

[compressor stall]

Brian Abraham can crap on all he wants about the clear air, but whatever country one might care to look at, the VMC minima rules use the word "visibility".

Sigh. Here we go again.

In Antarctica, you can still be VMC - according to ICAO definitions and therefore most CAA equivalents - and not see the ground in front of you. Visibility means the "ability, as determined by atmospheric conditions and expressed in units of distance, to see and identify prominent unlighted objects by day...".

If Mt Erebus had a rock band across it at low levels, I'd say Capt Collins wouldn't have flown into it. At that time, he would have had the required visibility under any VMC definition you choose to throw at the argument. It's just that there was no prominent unlit object to see, against a background of snow with cloud above.

Maybe it's a shortcoming in the regs, but you don't need a prominent object to have VMC. Its not about flying around with your eyes closed.

As an aside, there's a place in Antarctica called the Touchdown Hills...

[Ollie Onion]

Listen it is pretty simple:

Lot's of swiss cheese holes lined up which ultimately led to a very experienced capable crew flying a perfectly good aircraft into the side of a mountain.

Where the real disgrace is in this story was the way the government of the day and Air New Zealand purposely obstructed and tried to cover up all of those minor errors that ultimately contributed to this tragedy.

I strongly suspect in this day and age that given a similar set of circumstances the airline execs in question would be facing corporate manslaughter charges as opposed to just a stern telling off in a report which was produced many years after the fact.

We have to put it in perspective though, this crash could have been avoided at any stage by the flight crew not descending through the MSA when they were only 'reasonably' certain of their position rendering all of those 'other' mistakes mute.

[Brian Abraham]

Brian Abraham can crap on all he wants about the clear air, but whatever country one might care to look at

ampan, you are full of it, crap that is. I'm gaining a very strong impression from your continual denigration of Captain Collins that you are in fact an ex ANZ manager from the time in question, or perhaps worked in the nav department. There is absolutely no evidence that the flight was in anything but VMC conditions up to the time of impact. Time and time again you have shown that you have absolutely no understanding of whiteout.

Ollie Onion, a most sensible consise summary.

[ampan]

I could be the bastard son of Morrie Davis. So what?

Compressor Stall: If you know that it's very difficult to tell the difference between the cloud and the ice, then you cannot be VMC between the cloud and the ice. And if you know that it's hard to see with your eyes closed, then you cannot be VMC with your eyes closed. Is this complicated stuff for you and Brian A? You gents seem to think that Antartica is such a mysterious place that only those who have been there could know what the Antartic definition of "visibility" is. Jim Collins knew what the word meant, and he knew he didn't have it.

[Ornis]

I am no apologist for Air NZ, but look here: An experienced line pilot is sent to overfly the Antarctic after being briefed and trained to descend below MSA only south of a very big mountain, only in clear sky with 20km visibility and only in radio contact with McMurdo radar.

He takes it upon himself, with no discussion with the other two pilots, one of whom had "buggered off" for whatever reason, to descend in a hole in the cloud north of Eerebus, based on his belief the route was safe and the AINS that he had not checked in any way. Blunder one.

He knows the visibility at McMurdo is 40nm but he can't see much where he is at 2000ft so he descends to 1500ft where he can't see anything where he wants to go. Never mind, if you can't see anything, because of the ice and the low cloud, it's as you would expect, "nothing" there. Blunder two.

Forget horizons: CARs don't mention horizons. Forget definitions of VMC: CARs stipulate 5km visibility, that means you can see something 5km in front of you. Not to the side, to the front. CARs don't consider or discuss whiteout where the visibility is 40nm but the brain interprets nothing, because that is outside normal operations. (Air NZ required 20km vis.)

Forget regulations, forget numbers. The essence of visual flight is seeing where you are and seeing something where you are going, far enough to be "ahead" of the aircraft. Instead of turning north over the sea and climbing out, Collins decided to continue on nav track south. Blunder three.

Brian Abraham would have us blame Swiss cheese for these blunders, this appalling flying. Collins didn't have a free will, he was the victim of circumstances. Those who don't see it this way are lesser mortals. They do not have the sagacity or authority of the gods. Amen.

[Whiskery]

Ollie Onion, says it all really.

Amen.

[compressor stall]

Ampman,

There is no Antartic [sic] definition of visibility and, as such, VMC by definition there is really no different to anywhere else in the world, including NZ. It's not a mysterious place, but VMC flight there can throw up unique hazards that require understanding. As could e.g. PNG or Saharan flying.

If you know that it's very difficult to tell the difference between the cloud and the ice, then you cannot be VMC between the cloud and the ice.

You still don't get it.

I like Ollie Onion's succinct summary.