Jetstar to launch Hong Kong based carrier
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Breathing space for Joyce but locals won't make life easy
Surely if this expedition Joyce and his motley crue are on falters, he'll have a pretty big target on his back...I'm surprised they have let him get this far after the MAS fiasco.
All looks good today, but for me I see a problem with the management side of the different setup structures for J* SIN, Vietnam, Japan and now HKG.. all very different markets with different government regulations & market pressures... All we know so far is J* Singapore finally made a profit of only $18 m after entering the market in 2004.... propped up by who?
All I see is, a sea of red ink similar to the setup time frame it took to get the Singapore business to work.... (assuming SIN is indeed making a profit in its own right) confusing to say the least..
I think Matt O'Sullivan makes some good points/observations in this piece he wrote yesterday...
Breathing space for Joyce but locals won't make life easy
THREE weeks after finally ditching plans for a premium airline in Asia, Qantas's boss, Alan Joyce, has won a reprieve from investors on edge about the company's direction.
The inking of a deal to form a budget offshoot in Hong Kong, in partnership with China Eastern, gives Joyce much-needed breathing space. It also helps bolster his long-term aim of tapping China, the jewel in the crown of the world's fastest-growing regional market.
Unveiling the 50:50 joint venture yesterday, Joyce was keen to emphasise the importance of Jetstar having first-mover advantage on the doorstep of mainland China.
Securing China's second-largest airline as an equity partner is no small feat in a country where the only airline to make significant inroads is Cathay Pacific through its links with Air China.
But in the notoriously volatile aviation industry, turning Jetstar Hong Kong into a profitable enterprise and using it as a launch pad for entering the domestic travel market in China will be a tough assignment.
Qantas and Jetstar, the airline Joyce ran until 2008, risk inciting the formidable strength of Cathay Pacific and its offshoot, Dragonair, which can be sure to defend its home turf aggressively.
History shows airlines have found Hong Kong akin to a battleground. Remember Oasis, the budget Hong Kong airline that collapsed four years ago with losses of almost $HK1 billion ($123.1 million)?
Although Cathay has not shown interest in entering the low-cost travel market, it now has every reason to turn Dragonair, which operates the same A320 planes as Jetstar, into a fully-fledged low-cost offshoot.
Then there's Hong Kong Express, the offshoot of Chinese-backed Hong Kong Airlines, which will be reshaped as a low-cost airline later this year.
High airport charges and labour costs have long been a deterrent to airlines considering Hong Kong as a base for a budget carrier.
Of course, the bigger prize is the chance to fly domestic routes in China, something foreign airlines are banking on to become possible through joint ventures with Chinese partners within the next decade.
As growth slows to a canter outside of Asia, they are pinning their hopes on the Chinese government replicating a gradual opening up of aviation markets in countries such as Japan.
The question is whether Qantas and Jetstar run the risk of handing China Eastern the know-how to set up a low-cost airline, only to find their Chinese partners replicating the model on their own on the mainland.
Joyce obviously thinks it is all worth the risk. With a key plank of his strategy to turn around the fortunes of Qantas's premium international airlines consigned to the bottom drawer, the push into Hong Kong demonstrates the Flying Kangaroo's fortunes will rest firmly on Jetstar.
THREE weeks after finally ditching plans for a premium airline in Asia, Qantas's boss, Alan Joyce, has won a reprieve from investors on edge about the company's direction.
The inking of a deal to form a budget offshoot in Hong Kong, in partnership with China Eastern, gives Joyce much-needed breathing space. It also helps bolster his long-term aim of tapping China, the jewel in the crown of the world's fastest-growing regional market.
Unveiling the 50:50 joint venture yesterday, Joyce was keen to emphasise the importance of Jetstar having first-mover advantage on the doorstep of mainland China.
Securing China's second-largest airline as an equity partner is no small feat in a country where the only airline to make significant inroads is Cathay Pacific through its links with Air China.
But in the notoriously volatile aviation industry, turning Jetstar Hong Kong into a profitable enterprise and using it as a launch pad for entering the domestic travel market in China will be a tough assignment.
Qantas and Jetstar, the airline Joyce ran until 2008, risk inciting the formidable strength of Cathay Pacific and its offshoot, Dragonair, which can be sure to defend its home turf aggressively.
History shows airlines have found Hong Kong akin to a battleground. Remember Oasis, the budget Hong Kong airline that collapsed four years ago with losses of almost $HK1 billion ($123.1 million)?
Although Cathay has not shown interest in entering the low-cost travel market, it now has every reason to turn Dragonair, which operates the same A320 planes as Jetstar, into a fully-fledged low-cost offshoot.
Then there's Hong Kong Express, the offshoot of Chinese-backed Hong Kong Airlines, which will be reshaped as a low-cost airline later this year.
High airport charges and labour costs have long been a deterrent to airlines considering Hong Kong as a base for a budget carrier.
Of course, the bigger prize is the chance to fly domestic routes in China, something foreign airlines are banking on to become possible through joint ventures with Chinese partners within the next decade.
As growth slows to a canter outside of Asia, they are pinning their hopes on the Chinese government replicating a gradual opening up of aviation markets in countries such as Japan.
The question is whether Qantas and Jetstar run the risk of handing China Eastern the know-how to set up a low-cost airline, only to find their Chinese partners replicating the model on their own on the mainland.
Joyce obviously thinks it is all worth the risk. With a key plank of his strategy to turn around the fortunes of Qantas's premium international airlines consigned to the bottom drawer, the push into Hong Kong demonstrates the Flying Kangaroo's fortunes will rest firmly on Jetstar.
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The question is whether Qantas and Jetstar run the risk of handing China Eastern the know-how to set up a low-cost airline, only to find their Chinese partners replicating the model on their own on the mainland.
The Chinese government is refusing to let the Volt qualify for subsidies totaling up to $19,300 a car unless G.M. agrees to transfer the engineering secrets for one of the Volt's three main technologies to a joint venture in China with a Chinese automaker, G.M. officials said. Some international trade experts said China would risk violating World Trade Organization rules if it imposed that requirement.
..It's not a law, but every car manufacturer that wants to build cars in China has been given to understand in closed-door talks that it must share "New Energy Vehicle" technologies with Chinese partners. The deadline is 2015. Car manufacturers have responded by offering to create China-only brands. VW already has decided on the brand Kaili, Daimler is following suit, and now BMW can no longer drag its heels.
All warfare is based on deception
-- Suz Tzu
-- Suz Tzu
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9X is making a good point on the LCC know-how. It wasnt long ago when some PRC carriers were trying to get their cadets some "hands on" with offers of FO's for free to asian LCCs'. Even 3K / jetstar asia-singapore knocked back the offer supposedly due to "possible competitive disadvantages when the cadets return home." How does it go now, if you cant beat them, bend over and let them #$%^& you."
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I can't help thinking the grand plan for Jetstar HK is a staging post for long haul A380 to LHR in orange & silver.
The only possible reason QF could pull off the Hong Kong-Heathrow in the Olympic year & lend the slots to BA is to have them in the bag when Jetstar A380's can take over the route and it doesn't appear as a transfer of business.
Qantas management ordered the wrong aircraft it the A380, when they should have ordered B777s. The Qantas A380 config is too heavy and not suited to routes over 12 hours due to excessive fuel burn.
Current QF management can not handle the loss of face & order the B777.
The only way to save this once great company is to change management.
Lets hope QF/Jetstar management have made this announcement too early once again and they fall on their sword.
The only possible reason QF could pull off the Hong Kong-Heathrow in the Olympic year & lend the slots to BA is to have them in the bag when Jetstar A380's can take over the route and it doesn't appear as a transfer of business.
Qantas management ordered the wrong aircraft it the A380, when they should have ordered B777s. The Qantas A380 config is too heavy and not suited to routes over 12 hours due to excessive fuel burn.
Current QF management can not handle the loss of face & order the B777.
The only way to save this once great company is to change management.
Lets hope QF/Jetstar management have made this announcement too early once again and they fall on their sword.
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Living the dream AJ? Shares have inched their way toward $1.80!!
Oh so exciting. However at present things are all exciting indeed, media hype, pomp and ceremony, hell some shareholders would be packing major wood in their shorts by now!
But wait til AJ and BB realize the Chinese kiddies in the playground don't like to be friends. The Chinese kiddies don't want to share, why those kiddies like to take take take.
Hang on, what was that, somebody just mention more American mischief in the Middle East? What do you mean huge oil price rises coming? Why didn't somebody tell me the Euro would collapse by the end of 2012? Hey thats not fair, I didn't know that China's got escalating inflation and there would be a future downturn in Asian tourism and business by 2013?
Oh great, just great, why didn't somebody warn me about the potential for disease outbreak, economic catastrophe's, 'global partners' not sharing the spoils, a sudden massive attack by the competition, an oil price crisis and, and, and oh crap, where's that blarney stone.
Oh so exciting. However at present things are all exciting indeed, media hype, pomp and ceremony, hell some shareholders would be packing major wood in their shorts by now!
But wait til AJ and BB realize the Chinese kiddies in the playground don't like to be friends. The Chinese kiddies don't want to share, why those kiddies like to take take take.
Hang on, what was that, somebody just mention more American mischief in the Middle East? What do you mean huge oil price rises coming? Why didn't somebody tell me the Euro would collapse by the end of 2012? Hey thats not fair, I didn't know that China's got escalating inflation and there would be a future downturn in Asian tourism and business by 2013?
Oh great, just great, why didn't somebody warn me about the potential for disease outbreak, economic catastrophe's, 'global partners' not sharing the spoils, a sudden massive attack by the competition, an oil price crisis and, and, and oh crap, where's that blarney stone.
This is What You Are Getting Into Qantas..
This is the business culture you are going to have to interact with Qantas. Are you ready? I don't think so. Read, Mark, Learn and inwardly digest.
Sun Hung Kai Chairmen Arrested in Hong Kong - WSJ.com
HONG KONG—Two billionaire brothers who are among the city's most powerful property tycoons and the city's former No. 2 official were arrested Thursday on suspicion of bribery in a case that gets to the heart of city's business culture and its economy.......................
Sun Hung Kai Chairmen Arrested in Hong Kong - WSJ.com
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Imbeciles
Very very good example Sunnie. If these two gentlemen can get pineappled then Herr Alan and his little airline, and of course Herr BB, had better be doing their sums.
To be honest, this Asian venture is going to be lots of fun to watch over the coming few years if it survives that long. Again, it is the Qantas staff beneath the executive level that my heart bleeds for.
Please please relocate AJ, BB and all the execs to China itself
Tick tock
To be honest, this Asian venture is going to be lots of fun to watch over the coming few years if it survives that long. Again, it is the Qantas staff beneath the executive level that my heart bleeds for.
Please please relocate AJ, BB and all the execs to China itself
Tick tock
The only possible reason QF could pull off the Hong Kong-Heathrow in the Olympic year & lend the slots to BA is to have them in the bag when Jetstar A380's can take over the route and it doesn't appear as a transfer of business.
Numerous 744's were coming up for D checks and they weren't prepared to spend the money on them to get them through the Olympic bubble but then face a post Olympic slump when they would withdraw anyway.
Oops. Forgot to plan for those D checks or lease some new equipment. Talk about reactive planning.
Apart from the Olympics, it is also a Jubilee year. Historically travel to Britain has been well up in Jubilee years and the following year. And with the Aussie strong and the Pound very weak by almost any historical standard, why wouldn't you go back to the 'Mother Country' for a visit. [OK, my Mother isn't English but that's what everyone called it when I was a boy]. Maybe it's just a Catholic thing.
Apart from the Olympics, it is also a Jubilee year. Historically travel to Britain has been well up in Jubilee years and the following year. And with the Aussie strong and the Pound very weak by almost any historical standard, why wouldn't you go back to the 'Mother Country' for a visit. [OK, my Mother isn't English but that's what everyone called it when I was a boy]. Maybe it's just a Catholic thing.
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Demonstrates yet again the lack of value they place on the QF Brand and the consequences of a cost cutting mentality to drive a company.
Complete lack of vision in actually growing, building or defending accrued/embedded value in a business.
Still cannot fathom the logic of handing over routes to others.
Then again Exec bonuses will be protected in the measure of success.
Complete lack of vision in actually growing, building or defending accrued/embedded value in a business.
Still cannot fathom the logic of handing over routes to others.
Then again Exec bonuses will be protected in the measure of success.
Once again AJ shows that when quoting figures he will state what he wants to enhance the argument rather than what is the truth.
In the video above - "Australia's population is just 20 million." What happened to the other 2.9 million?
Yes, maybe a minor point in terms of the argument - but 2.9 million is an error of 14%. Fairly consistent form from AJ.
In the video above - "Australia's population is just 20 million." What happened to the other 2.9 million?
Yes, maybe a minor point in terms of the argument - but 2.9 million is an error of 14%. Fairly consistent form from AJ.
Jetstar Hong Kong under fire from SAR establishment paper
Plane Talking
Latest News Columns & Insight from Hong Kong & China | SCMP.com
It has taken some time for a considered response from the Hong Kong government to the Jetstar Hong Kong plan to appear in its well connected and long established English language daily the South China Morning Post but this editorial would not be welcome at Qantas.
It is telling observers that Qantas has a fight on its hands, and that like the ballyhoo that was rolled out over the Red Q Asia based minority owned narrow body premium carrier that came to nothing after six months of dictation by Qantas to the aviation powers in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, communication via press release is an amateur way of conducting business negotiations in the hemisphere
Jetstar Hong Kong should have no claim on home-ground advantages
Albert Cheng says a HK-tagged carrier should not have access to air rights here
Apr 18, 2012
Australia’s Qantas Airways and China Eastern Airlines have teamed up to launch a new budget airline for the region, Jetstar Hong Kong.
The two are prepared to invest nearly US$100million each to pursue the fast-growing Asian market covering the mainland, Japan and South Korea, among other destinations.
The new carrier plans to take to the skies in the middle of next year with three Airbus A320 aircraft.
By the end of 2015, it plans to have 18 jetliners providing low-cost services for millions of passengers.
Jetstar Group has its business headquarters and maintenance base overseas. So the new budget airline will only be Hong Kong-tagged but not a Hong Kong-based operation. This will infringe Hong Kong’s air traffic rights and directly harm local interests with their principal place of business in Hong Kong.
Such a joint venture would create unhealthy competition in the aviation sector and erode the rights and interests of local airlines. Worse, it would set an undesirable precedent and open the floodgates to foreign airlines knocking on our door wanting to provide low-cost airline services for regional markets.
The short-term benefits offered by Jetstar Hong Kong would eventually bring long-term losses to the city, challenge our status as an international aviation hub and threaten to weaken our competitive edge.
Air traffic rights that allow an airline to pick up passengers from one foreign territory and fly them to another foreign territory are privileges that are heavily guarded by any country or territory. They are not something to be given away unconditionally.
If a country or territory decides to open up its airspace or assign air traffic rights to another country or territory, they will sign air treaties that offer mutual benefits. Only airlines that are owned by or incorporated in that country will be given air traffic rights to operate routes into and out of that country.
Since the handover, Hong Kong’s status as an aviation hub and its civil aviation sector have been under intense focus. The Basic Law gives over significant space to dealing with Hong Kong’s aviation sector.
Article 132 states that all air service agreements providing services between other parts of China and other states and regions with stops in Hong Kong, and air services between Hong Kong and other states and regions with stops at other parts of China, shall be concluded by the central government. And, in concluding such agreements, Beijing shall take into account the “special conditions and economic interests” of Hong Kong and consult its government.
Furthermore, Article 134 specifies that Beijing shall give Hong Kong the authority to negotiate and conclude with other authorities all arrangements concerning the implementation of its air service agreements. It allows the Hong Kong government to issue licences to airlines incorporated in Hong Kong and having their principal place of business in the city.
Without getting prior approval from the government, Qantas Airways and China Eastern Airlines might have jumped the gun. They have gone against the principles and rules laid down by the Basic Law. This is something we cannot tolerate.
For a region to become and then maintain its aviation hub status, there are many preconditions. Besides having all the geographical advantages and proper infrastructure, it needs to have a strong home carrier with an extensive network of routes.
Cathay Pacific is a genuine Hong Kong-based home carrier, offering extensive global connectivity for passengers and serving the city well. There are other examples, such as Dragonair, Hong Kong Airlines and Metrojet.
The government must remain vigilant in safeguarding our air traffic rights. It should also make it a priority to protect the interests of Hong Kong’s own airlines because their well-being is critical to the sustainability of our hub status and the survival of our aviation industry.
Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator.
While it would be wrong to jump to conclusions about where the venture is headed on the basis of this article alone, the newspaper has an exceptional track record when it comes to reading the political realities in the SAR.Albert Cheng says a HK-tagged carrier should not have access to air rights here
Apr 18, 2012
Australia’s Qantas Airways and China Eastern Airlines have teamed up to launch a new budget airline for the region, Jetstar Hong Kong.
The two are prepared to invest nearly US$100million each to pursue the fast-growing Asian market covering the mainland, Japan and South Korea, among other destinations.
The new carrier plans to take to the skies in the middle of next year with three Airbus A320 aircraft.
By the end of 2015, it plans to have 18 jetliners providing low-cost services for millions of passengers.
Jetstar Group has its business headquarters and maintenance base overseas. So the new budget airline will only be Hong Kong-tagged but not a Hong Kong-based operation. This will infringe Hong Kong’s air traffic rights and directly harm local interests with their principal place of business in Hong Kong.
Such a joint venture would create unhealthy competition in the aviation sector and erode the rights and interests of local airlines. Worse, it would set an undesirable precedent and open the floodgates to foreign airlines knocking on our door wanting to provide low-cost airline services for regional markets.
The short-term benefits offered by Jetstar Hong Kong would eventually bring long-term losses to the city, challenge our status as an international aviation hub and threaten to weaken our competitive edge.
Air traffic rights that allow an airline to pick up passengers from one foreign territory and fly them to another foreign territory are privileges that are heavily guarded by any country or territory. They are not something to be given away unconditionally.
If a country or territory decides to open up its airspace or assign air traffic rights to another country or territory, they will sign air treaties that offer mutual benefits. Only airlines that are owned by or incorporated in that country will be given air traffic rights to operate routes into and out of that country.
Since the handover, Hong Kong’s status as an aviation hub and its civil aviation sector have been under intense focus. The Basic Law gives over significant space to dealing with Hong Kong’s aviation sector.
Article 132 states that all air service agreements providing services between other parts of China and other states and regions with stops in Hong Kong, and air services between Hong Kong and other states and regions with stops at other parts of China, shall be concluded by the central government. And, in concluding such agreements, Beijing shall take into account the “special conditions and economic interests” of Hong Kong and consult its government.
Furthermore, Article 134 specifies that Beijing shall give Hong Kong the authority to negotiate and conclude with other authorities all arrangements concerning the implementation of its air service agreements. It allows the Hong Kong government to issue licences to airlines incorporated in Hong Kong and having their principal place of business in the city.
Without getting prior approval from the government, Qantas Airways and China Eastern Airlines might have jumped the gun. They have gone against the principles and rules laid down by the Basic Law. This is something we cannot tolerate.
For a region to become and then maintain its aviation hub status, there are many preconditions. Besides having all the geographical advantages and proper infrastructure, it needs to have a strong home carrier with an extensive network of routes.
Cathay Pacific is a genuine Hong Kong-based home carrier, offering extensive global connectivity for passengers and serving the city well. There are other examples, such as Dragonair, Hong Kong Airlines and Metrojet.
The government must remain vigilant in safeguarding our air traffic rights. It should also make it a priority to protect the interests of Hong Kong’s own airlines because their well-being is critical to the sustainability of our hub status and the survival of our aviation industry.
Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator.
It is telling observers that Qantas has a fight on its hands, and that like the ballyhoo that was rolled out over the Red Q Asia based minority owned narrow body premium carrier that came to nothing after six months of dictation by Qantas to the aviation powers in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, communication via press release is an amateur way of conducting business negotiations in the hemisphere
Latest News Columns & Insight from Hong Kong & China | SCMP.com
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This is a lengthy read, and at first doesn't seem to fit the Jetstar Hong Kong thread, but reading through it becomes clear it is highly relevant for Qantas when dealing with Chinese partners.
By Craig Tindale
There is a crisis of confidence unfolding in China that is likely to end in a full scale capital flight and a disorderly collapse in both economic and political cohesiveness. The lowering of the reserve requirements for Chinese banks, while reported in the media as a loosening of credit, is more likely an early sign of capital flight. Similarly reflective of this, are the large increases of gold purchases by Chinese citizens who have few diversification options away from the RMB.
China’s wealth is concentrated abnormally within an elite 1% of high net worth individuals. This 1% command up to $5 USD trillion dollars in wealth. If these elite should rush the doors to move their wealth out of the country using the multitude of avenues that exist to evade Chinese capital controls, then the Chinese banks may face the biggest bank run in history.
The problem is that while the propaganda machine might control the minds of the masses, the wealthy elite are virtually immune to thought control and are likely to be the best informed and have the means to be the first to leave. Reserves are mostly tied up in USD and treasuries cannot be liquidated for fear of raising the value of the RMB. Along with further eroding trade surpluses, this means a capital flight by the elite occurring with massive insolvency in the credit market could vaporize the Chinese liquidity in what will seem like an economic Cat 5 hurricane.
The Chinese economy is in the final stages of largest Ponzi scheme ever devised. Minsky outlined three distinct phases in the credit cycle: In the first phase known as the hedge phase; economic actors borrow money to invest in order to create goods to sell for profit. In the second stage, the speculative phase, more economic actors join the economy, borrowing money to invest in assets in the expectation that these assets will rise in value. In the last stage, known as the Ponzi stage, economic actors borrow in the hope that conditions will improve. This borrowing is designed to avoid insolvency during what is perceived or hoped to be a short to medium term setback in economic conditions.
Some may argue that the Minsky market driven instability hypothesis is not suited to China and that they are chiefly a centrally planned state controlled economy. This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of Minsky’s work. The Western economies’ attempt to centrally plan economic activities from the consumption end, the state based capitalism that China has become known for attempts to centrally control the economy from the production side.
The Chinese production economy cannot be seen in isolation from the consumption economies of the West; debt based consumption provided the umbrella under which the Chinese miracle grew. When the GFC collapsed Western debt based consumption reacted by providing the last line of Minsky Ponzi financing via government bail-outs. Governments faced with banking collapse chose keep the system going by transferring debt from private hands to those of the taxpayers.
The Chinese, faced with a massive collapse in export income, chose to keep the economy functioning by stimulating the economy with massive capital works and lending. In both cases the government was the provider of the last line Ponzi financing to keep the economy rolling. Now that this Ponzi financing has been near exhausted in both the West and the East, profound collapse is the only logical outcome.
Whereas the Minsky moment in Western economies comes by way of over-enthusiastic private borrowers, the instability in China is potentially more virulent in that its source is an over-enthusiastic government: the former relying on the solvency of borrowers and the later relying on the solvency of the state. Some argue that while the Chinese state remains solvent, no matter how many empty buildings exist they can continue the game. The question then is – Are they solvent and how long can they remain that way? The exponential growth in Chinese debt and mal-investment and the very unlikely return of Western demand means the system will become insolvent in the short to medium term.
The number of investors who have suffered losses due to widespread fraud is growing exponentially and the list of those that have racked up substantial losses includes some of the leading investors in the world. This list of investors includes investment legends like Anthony Bolton one of Europe’s most well-known fund managers, legendary investment icon John Paulson have been the victims of fraud, the scale of which has never been seen in economic history.
Bolton came out of retirement in 2009 specifically to invest in China and his investments have turned into a complete disaster. In fact, Bolton was forced to offer an apology for his companies poor performance after losing 28.9% of its nearly 430M pound capitalization in the last six months of 2011 Anthony Bolton apologises for China fund’s poor performance. Rampant fraud was evident right at the core of his investment difficulties. This appears to have reached epidemic proportions right across the Chinese corporate landscape, so much so that Bolton has been forced to turn to private investigators after investors in Fidelity’s China fund suffer losses of 21%.
Bolton wasn’t the only one. The legendary investor John Paulson is being sued by his investors after losing $462M of his 23B fund investing in Sino Forest Paulson Fund Sued Over Sino-Forest Losses. The Sino Forest debacle was kicked off with a 19 page report issued by Carson Block of Muddy Water Sino Forest Report. This report didn’t mince words and came out form the start comparing the company to Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.
“Like Madoff, TRE is one of the rare frauds that is committed by an established institution. In TRE’s case, its early start as an RTO fraud, luck, and deft navigation enabled it to grow into an institution whose “quality management” consistently delivered on earnings growth.”
The problem with Sino Forest was that most of the forests the company claimed as assets simply didn’t exist. Rather than being a few isolated cases, these examples signal an epidemic of systemic fraud and corruption that pervades entire Chinese economy. This systemic fraud directly correlates to Minsky’s final Ponzi phase: cheap credit, floods the economy, eventually exhausting useful ways it can be utilized. This, together with the lack of systemic controls that accompany cheap credit, initially causes mal-investment into projects that will never return enough to service their debt. Then, having exhausted all reasonable avenues of mal-investment, large amounts get siphoned into the hands of criminal opportunistic economic agents who game the system.
In December another Chinese stock research firm Citron came out with this report Qihoo : Fraudulent Financials,Terminal Business, Or Both….You Decide. Citron maintains price target of $5. In late February 2012 they submitted this report to the SEC Citron Reports to Securities and Exchange Commission. Australian, John Hempton of Bronte Capital, famous locally for uncovering the Astara Trio Capital Ponzi scheme, has been instrumental in uncovering a long list of Chinese frauds including: Longtop Financial Technologies, Universal Travel Group, China Media Express, and China Agritech
A few weeks ago, Boshiwa Holdings the licensee and manufacturer of Harry Potter related toys plunged 42% on news that its auditor had quit. In late February Puda Coal raised a $100M from US investors based coal assets that were never there: A Fraud Went Undetected, Although Easy to Spot.
What is China’s response to this plague of fraud in Chinese US listed stocks? They intend to make it very difficult for the Big 4 to continue to work in China ‘Big Four’ auditors brace for big changes in China. In the case of Longtop Financial, Deloites, the firms’ auditors have been unable to provide the SEC with any documentation about the collapse for fear of breaking China’s state secrecy laws.
These frauds are extremely sophisticated and have gone undetected by the large audit firms. They are not just the result of a series of independent events undertaken by similarly dishonest business people acting alone. Rather, a recent report suggests they are part of a systemic network of agents acting inside and outside of China whose main purpose is to perpetuate investment fraud on a scale never seen before in economic history.
One of the central players in uncovering Chinese investment fraud research is the firm Muddy Waters who recently published a white paper entitled Frauducation Part I: in this paper the author outlines how Chinese businessmen are taught and sponsored by experts, who sponsor and coach fraudsters in subjects like falsifying records, accounting, assets and the various methods needed to pull off grand frauds. When a character like John Paulson gets taken for nearly half a billion there is a lot of motivation on the criminal side to get things right
The fraud school’s assistance went well beyond providing document and accounting templates. The fraud school provided a network of “friendly” auditors that would help the companies get through the initial due diligence processes. The fraud school also helped companies game the due diligence process by providing the companies with contact information of suppliers and customers to give to potential investors. The
suppliers and customers were frauds – the school hired them merely to play a role and answer questions according to the script. (Source: Muddy Waters)
Fraud is central to the Chinese system, it has emerged via virulent mutation of the ancient tribute system. In the past, these tribute systems reflected an ancient form of private regulatory order. In the past there was often a limited basis for the rule of law to govern transactions. Throughout Chinese history, trade relied on systems of tribute to ensure secure business and political outcomes.
These old systems were still essential throughout Asia up until only a few decades ago because, transacting parties could not rely on the rule of law to ensure the security of terms governing a transaction. In China this has evolved into government sponsored systemic corruption with Western motivations of greed and criminality. It infects every level of the private and public sector.
A small piece of it was exposed recently in the “Bo” scandal, where there are reports of it infecting the families: Not only the Bo Lai family but even to the highest level of government- up to and including the family of Propaganda Minister, Liu Yunshan .Who 16 elder retired elder statesmen petitioned to have sacked
Rather than being seen as isolated incidents, these examples reflect a cultural meme, a way of doing business that represents the standard operating procedure for a large segment (if not all) of the Chinese economy.
The epidemic of fraud sits like a structural element across both the private and government sector further magnifying the mal-investment caused by the massive credit expansion. For example: The high speed rail project audits reveal millions have been siphoned toward corrupt contractors and government officials. This amount merely represents the siphoning on the core budget and doesn’t reflect the extra costs loaded by each of the contractors.
Take for example Hollysys, the provider of signalling and control systems for many the Chinese high speed train projects. This company managed to earn `154M (2009)-175M(2010) with a trifling $3.1 M in capital equipment. Their explanation for this is they outsource all manufacturing, which is a little odd since they have such massive buildings, covering hundreds of acres and $24M in inventories.
On its website, the company boasts of over 40 major projects covering everything from Nuclear Power station instrumentation to cutting edge high-speed rail. All of these projects combined require no more than $3.1 million in capital equipment? In a country where corruption is evident at every level, the corruption apparent in the high-speed rail project was even too much for the Chinese system to carry. China’s Communist Party has expelled a once-powerful former railways minister accused of serious corruption, state-run media report.
China is a country that is essentially a directly funded fiat system, whereas in a traditional fiat funded system the state prints money to directly purchase goods and services. Here, the Chinese system achieves the same outcome by lending with little prospect of repayment. A system that perpetually rolls over debts does not constitute a credit based money system. Whether they are corporations or individuals, many of state affiliated economic agents simply cannot default because the lender is unwilling to foreclose on an influential political player. If you cannot pay you can simply ring the party to arrange a rollover the balance.
The funds are effectively fiscal stimulus carried out government-controlled intermediaries, state and local governments, who then spend these funds on projects dreamt up by corrupt local politicians. These projects are built with borrowed money by various state aligned economic agents. These agents have little hope of repaying the debts incurred. This in turn means that the debts are roll over when they fall due. In reality the State is simply printing money, spending it and then at some point writing it off. This is being done at a speed and scale never before seen in human history.
Jim Chanos the famous hedge fund investor who foresaw the subprime crisis described the entire Chinese economy as “1000 times worse than Dubai”. In 2008, when the world experienced the GFC, China doubled down and simply spent their way through via massive credit stimulus. When China’s massive export markets shrank due to the Western debt crisis the Chinese elected to convert their economy from an export based one to a construction based economy. Meanwhile, the Western media perpetuates the myths of China’s supposed ascent to displace the US as being the world largest economy.
The problem is that the Western economies never recovered and the Chinese have had to continue their massive growth purely based on constructing roads, bridges, airports, dams and various other construction based infrastructure
If one starts with the official economic statistics and works down through the accounting, taxation, banking systems and then across Chinese industry, there is rampant fraud, poor reporting and outright propaganda at every level. The Chinese economy is largely a central government budgetary system of fiscal spending; each local government submits spending plans to central party authorities, who in turn recommend expenditure up the line.
In 2008 in order to counter the shock of the GFC the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) engaged in massive stimulus programs just as the West did. The difference though was in the way the stimulus was delivered. In Australia, stimulus was delivered as government spending. This is traditionally known as fiscal stimulus where the government borrows money to spend on projects like the new fibre optic NBN Network. In China, though the stimulus was delivered much less traditionally; the increase in expenditure was delivered through banks who were encouraged to offer massive amounts of debt to provincial governments, state owned and sponsored owned enterprise.
The impetus for the stimulus might have been centrally planned, but the spending was decentralised. Provincial governments in China are not able to issue bonds, so state owned investment vehicles borrow the money, often using state gifted real estate collateral as security. The reality is that the majority of these investments, do not or will not pay a return anywhere near that required to make debt repayments. These projects born of corruption, nursed by self-serving bureaucracy fail to thrive due to the defective financial DNA.
Provincial credit expanded at a rate of +35% of GDP per annum and many of the loans needing to be rolled over, with no prospect of serviceability. For this lunacy to continue, what is primarily a construction economy must build more infrastructure this year than last and more again next year and the year after into perpetuity. If these projects had no chance of becoming solvent going concerns in the past, then new projects are even less likely to repay their lenders in the future. In this environment of manic overproduction, elite capital at some point will panic and run for the exits.
To a large extent the Chinese propaganda machine has captured an unquestioning Western media;, the meme that China is the next rising super power and will shortly overtake the US is a part of this propaganda story. Westerners imbue their view of China’s future with cultural qualities that have simply never been reflected in historical fact. In fact, programs like the one child policy reflect the opposite
If the projects in 2009 and 2010 cannot pay adequate returns to service debt then what hope do the new projects have? Furthermore, due to the epidemic of corruption throughout China’s public and private sector, the projects rarely reflect good value for money. This places the entire Chinese economy in Minsky’s last phase of expansion: The Ponzi phase, where lending is perpetrated in the hope that conditions will improve and with little hope of repayment.
In the West debt is to be freely given but even at its worst it is done on some basis of return. When an economic system loses its way, to the extent China has done, the tension it creates on a society becomes unbearable. When the eventual day of reckoning comes and the ability to expand debt is exhausted, then the physics of complete collapse come into play.
A bleak harsh reality will descend on a political system that’s run out of options. One unique feature will come the fore: That China uniquely spends more on internal security than external defence. China will at once face a great leap backward forcing a military coup and the effective end of CCP rule. Whether the military can hold the country together through a Soviet style collapse is anyone’s guess. One outcome could see the wealthier provinces seeking independence, however it ends it will be the end of a dynasty that started with Mao.
China will not be be the world’s biggest economy this century. It will falter, due to its demographic arthritis and debt explosion. The denouement of its corruption will pull it down like no other collapse in history. China will shortly have “interesting times.”
Craig Tindale is the Vice President of the Centre for Economic Stability, Professor Steve Keen’s non-profit research initiative.
Steve Keen's Blog
The End of the Communist Dynasty
By Craig Tindale
There is a crisis of confidence unfolding in China that is likely to end in a full scale capital flight and a disorderly collapse in both economic and political cohesiveness. The lowering of the reserve requirements for Chinese banks, while reported in the media as a loosening of credit, is more likely an early sign of capital flight. Similarly reflective of this, are the large increases of gold purchases by Chinese citizens who have few diversification options away from the RMB.
China’s wealth is concentrated abnormally within an elite 1% of high net worth individuals. This 1% command up to $5 USD trillion dollars in wealth. If these elite should rush the doors to move their wealth out of the country using the multitude of avenues that exist to evade Chinese capital controls, then the Chinese banks may face the biggest bank run in history.
The problem is that while the propaganda machine might control the minds of the masses, the wealthy elite are virtually immune to thought control and are likely to be the best informed and have the means to be the first to leave. Reserves are mostly tied up in USD and treasuries cannot be liquidated for fear of raising the value of the RMB. Along with further eroding trade surpluses, this means a capital flight by the elite occurring with massive insolvency in the credit market could vaporize the Chinese liquidity in what will seem like an economic Cat 5 hurricane.
The Chinese economy is in the final stages of largest Ponzi scheme ever devised. Minsky outlined three distinct phases in the credit cycle: In the first phase known as the hedge phase; economic actors borrow money to invest in order to create goods to sell for profit. In the second stage, the speculative phase, more economic actors join the economy, borrowing money to invest in assets in the expectation that these assets will rise in value. In the last stage, known as the Ponzi stage, economic actors borrow in the hope that conditions will improve. This borrowing is designed to avoid insolvency during what is perceived or hoped to be a short to medium term setback in economic conditions.
Some may argue that the Minsky market driven instability hypothesis is not suited to China and that they are chiefly a centrally planned state controlled economy. This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of Minsky’s work. The Western economies’ attempt to centrally plan economic activities from the consumption end, the state based capitalism that China has become known for attempts to centrally control the economy from the production side.
The Chinese production economy cannot be seen in isolation from the consumption economies of the West; debt based consumption provided the umbrella under which the Chinese miracle grew. When the GFC collapsed Western debt based consumption reacted by providing the last line of Minsky Ponzi financing via government bail-outs. Governments faced with banking collapse chose keep the system going by transferring debt from private hands to those of the taxpayers.
The Chinese, faced with a massive collapse in export income, chose to keep the economy functioning by stimulating the economy with massive capital works and lending. In both cases the government was the provider of the last line Ponzi financing to keep the economy rolling. Now that this Ponzi financing has been near exhausted in both the West and the East, profound collapse is the only logical outcome.
Whereas the Minsky moment in Western economies comes by way of over-enthusiastic private borrowers, the instability in China is potentially more virulent in that its source is an over-enthusiastic government: the former relying on the solvency of borrowers and the later relying on the solvency of the state. Some argue that while the Chinese state remains solvent, no matter how many empty buildings exist they can continue the game. The question then is – Are they solvent and how long can they remain that way? The exponential growth in Chinese debt and mal-investment and the very unlikely return of Western demand means the system will become insolvent in the short to medium term.
The number of investors who have suffered losses due to widespread fraud is growing exponentially and the list of those that have racked up substantial losses includes some of the leading investors in the world. This list of investors includes investment legends like Anthony Bolton one of Europe’s most well-known fund managers, legendary investment icon John Paulson have been the victims of fraud, the scale of which has never been seen in economic history.
Bolton came out of retirement in 2009 specifically to invest in China and his investments have turned into a complete disaster. In fact, Bolton was forced to offer an apology for his companies poor performance after losing 28.9% of its nearly 430M pound capitalization in the last six months of 2011 Anthony Bolton apologises for China fund’s poor performance. Rampant fraud was evident right at the core of his investment difficulties. This appears to have reached epidemic proportions right across the Chinese corporate landscape, so much so that Bolton has been forced to turn to private investigators after investors in Fidelity’s China fund suffer losses of 21%.
Bolton wasn’t the only one. The legendary investor John Paulson is being sued by his investors after losing $462M of his 23B fund investing in Sino Forest Paulson Fund Sued Over Sino-Forest Losses. The Sino Forest debacle was kicked off with a 19 page report issued by Carson Block of Muddy Water Sino Forest Report. This report didn’t mince words and came out form the start comparing the company to Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.
“Like Madoff, TRE is one of the rare frauds that is committed by an established institution. In TRE’s case, its early start as an RTO fraud, luck, and deft navigation enabled it to grow into an institution whose “quality management” consistently delivered on earnings growth.”
The problem with Sino Forest was that most of the forests the company claimed as assets simply didn’t exist. Rather than being a few isolated cases, these examples signal an epidemic of systemic fraud and corruption that pervades entire Chinese economy. This systemic fraud directly correlates to Minsky’s final Ponzi phase: cheap credit, floods the economy, eventually exhausting useful ways it can be utilized. This, together with the lack of systemic controls that accompany cheap credit, initially causes mal-investment into projects that will never return enough to service their debt. Then, having exhausted all reasonable avenues of mal-investment, large amounts get siphoned into the hands of criminal opportunistic economic agents who game the system.
In December another Chinese stock research firm Citron came out with this report Qihoo : Fraudulent Financials,Terminal Business, Or Both….You Decide. Citron maintains price target of $5. In late February 2012 they submitted this report to the SEC Citron Reports to Securities and Exchange Commission. Australian, John Hempton of Bronte Capital, famous locally for uncovering the Astara Trio Capital Ponzi scheme, has been instrumental in uncovering a long list of Chinese frauds including: Longtop Financial Technologies, Universal Travel Group, China Media Express, and China Agritech
A few weeks ago, Boshiwa Holdings the licensee and manufacturer of Harry Potter related toys plunged 42% on news that its auditor had quit. In late February Puda Coal raised a $100M from US investors based coal assets that were never there: A Fraud Went Undetected, Although Easy to Spot.
What is China’s response to this plague of fraud in Chinese US listed stocks? They intend to make it very difficult for the Big 4 to continue to work in China ‘Big Four’ auditors brace for big changes in China. In the case of Longtop Financial, Deloites, the firms’ auditors have been unable to provide the SEC with any documentation about the collapse for fear of breaking China’s state secrecy laws.
These frauds are extremely sophisticated and have gone undetected by the large audit firms. They are not just the result of a series of independent events undertaken by similarly dishonest business people acting alone. Rather, a recent report suggests they are part of a systemic network of agents acting inside and outside of China whose main purpose is to perpetuate investment fraud on a scale never seen before in economic history.
One of the central players in uncovering Chinese investment fraud research is the firm Muddy Waters who recently published a white paper entitled Frauducation Part I: in this paper the author outlines how Chinese businessmen are taught and sponsored by experts, who sponsor and coach fraudsters in subjects like falsifying records, accounting, assets and the various methods needed to pull off grand frauds. When a character like John Paulson gets taken for nearly half a billion there is a lot of motivation on the criminal side to get things right
The fraud school’s assistance went well beyond providing document and accounting templates. The fraud school provided a network of “friendly” auditors that would help the companies get through the initial due diligence processes. The fraud school also helped companies game the due diligence process by providing the companies with contact information of suppliers and customers to give to potential investors. The
suppliers and customers were frauds – the school hired them merely to play a role and answer questions according to the script. (Source: Muddy Waters)
Fraud is central to the Chinese system, it has emerged via virulent mutation of the ancient tribute system. In the past, these tribute systems reflected an ancient form of private regulatory order. In the past there was often a limited basis for the rule of law to govern transactions. Throughout Chinese history, trade relied on systems of tribute to ensure secure business and political outcomes.
These old systems were still essential throughout Asia up until only a few decades ago because, transacting parties could not rely on the rule of law to ensure the security of terms governing a transaction. In China this has evolved into government sponsored systemic corruption with Western motivations of greed and criminality. It infects every level of the private and public sector.
A small piece of it was exposed recently in the “Bo” scandal, where there are reports of it infecting the families: Not only the Bo Lai family but even to the highest level of government- up to and including the family of Propaganda Minister, Liu Yunshan .Who 16 elder retired elder statesmen petitioned to have sacked
Rather than being seen as isolated incidents, these examples reflect a cultural meme, a way of doing business that represents the standard operating procedure for a large segment (if not all) of the Chinese economy.
The epidemic of fraud sits like a structural element across both the private and government sector further magnifying the mal-investment caused by the massive credit expansion. For example: The high speed rail project audits reveal millions have been siphoned toward corrupt contractors and government officials. This amount merely represents the siphoning on the core budget and doesn’t reflect the extra costs loaded by each of the contractors.
Take for example Hollysys, the provider of signalling and control systems for many the Chinese high speed train projects. This company managed to earn `154M (2009)-175M(2010) with a trifling $3.1 M in capital equipment. Their explanation for this is they outsource all manufacturing, which is a little odd since they have such massive buildings, covering hundreds of acres and $24M in inventories.
On its website, the company boasts of over 40 major projects covering everything from Nuclear Power station instrumentation to cutting edge high-speed rail. All of these projects combined require no more than $3.1 million in capital equipment? In a country where corruption is evident at every level, the corruption apparent in the high-speed rail project was even too much for the Chinese system to carry. China’s Communist Party has expelled a once-powerful former railways minister accused of serious corruption, state-run media report.
China is a country that is essentially a directly funded fiat system, whereas in a traditional fiat funded system the state prints money to directly purchase goods and services. Here, the Chinese system achieves the same outcome by lending with little prospect of repayment. A system that perpetually rolls over debts does not constitute a credit based money system. Whether they are corporations or individuals, many of state affiliated economic agents simply cannot default because the lender is unwilling to foreclose on an influential political player. If you cannot pay you can simply ring the party to arrange a rollover the balance.
The funds are effectively fiscal stimulus carried out government-controlled intermediaries, state and local governments, who then spend these funds on projects dreamt up by corrupt local politicians. These projects are built with borrowed money by various state aligned economic agents. These agents have little hope of repaying the debts incurred. This in turn means that the debts are roll over when they fall due. In reality the State is simply printing money, spending it and then at some point writing it off. This is being done at a speed and scale never before seen in human history.
Jim Chanos the famous hedge fund investor who foresaw the subprime crisis described the entire Chinese economy as “1000 times worse than Dubai”. In 2008, when the world experienced the GFC, China doubled down and simply spent their way through via massive credit stimulus. When China’s massive export markets shrank due to the Western debt crisis the Chinese elected to convert their economy from an export based one to a construction based economy. Meanwhile, the Western media perpetuates the myths of China’s supposed ascent to displace the US as being the world largest economy.
The problem is that the Western economies never recovered and the Chinese have had to continue their massive growth purely based on constructing roads, bridges, airports, dams and various other construction based infrastructure
If one starts with the official economic statistics and works down through the accounting, taxation, banking systems and then across Chinese industry, there is rampant fraud, poor reporting and outright propaganda at every level. The Chinese economy is largely a central government budgetary system of fiscal spending; each local government submits spending plans to central party authorities, who in turn recommend expenditure up the line.
In 2008 in order to counter the shock of the GFC the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) engaged in massive stimulus programs just as the West did. The difference though was in the way the stimulus was delivered. In Australia, stimulus was delivered as government spending. This is traditionally known as fiscal stimulus where the government borrows money to spend on projects like the new fibre optic NBN Network. In China, though the stimulus was delivered much less traditionally; the increase in expenditure was delivered through banks who were encouraged to offer massive amounts of debt to provincial governments, state owned and sponsored owned enterprise.
The impetus for the stimulus might have been centrally planned, but the spending was decentralised. Provincial governments in China are not able to issue bonds, so state owned investment vehicles borrow the money, often using state gifted real estate collateral as security. The reality is that the majority of these investments, do not or will not pay a return anywhere near that required to make debt repayments. These projects born of corruption, nursed by self-serving bureaucracy fail to thrive due to the defective financial DNA.
Provincial credit expanded at a rate of +35% of GDP per annum and many of the loans needing to be rolled over, with no prospect of serviceability. For this lunacy to continue, what is primarily a construction economy must build more infrastructure this year than last and more again next year and the year after into perpetuity. If these projects had no chance of becoming solvent going concerns in the past, then new projects are even less likely to repay their lenders in the future. In this environment of manic overproduction, elite capital at some point will panic and run for the exits.
To a large extent the Chinese propaganda machine has captured an unquestioning Western media;, the meme that China is the next rising super power and will shortly overtake the US is a part of this propaganda story. Westerners imbue their view of China’s future with cultural qualities that have simply never been reflected in historical fact. In fact, programs like the one child policy reflect the opposite
If the projects in 2009 and 2010 cannot pay adequate returns to service debt then what hope do the new projects have? Furthermore, due to the epidemic of corruption throughout China’s public and private sector, the projects rarely reflect good value for money. This places the entire Chinese economy in Minsky’s last phase of expansion: The Ponzi phase, where lending is perpetrated in the hope that conditions will improve and with little hope of repayment.
In the West debt is to be freely given but even at its worst it is done on some basis of return. When an economic system loses its way, to the extent China has done, the tension it creates on a society becomes unbearable. When the eventual day of reckoning comes and the ability to expand debt is exhausted, then the physics of complete collapse come into play.
A bleak harsh reality will descend on a political system that’s run out of options. One unique feature will come the fore: That China uniquely spends more on internal security than external defence. China will at once face a great leap backward forcing a military coup and the effective end of CCP rule. Whether the military can hold the country together through a Soviet style collapse is anyone’s guess. One outcome could see the wealthier provinces seeking independence, however it ends it will be the end of a dynasty that started with Mao.
China will not be be the world’s biggest economy this century. It will falter, due to its demographic arthritis and debt explosion. The denouement of its corruption will pull it down like no other collapse in history. China will shortly have “interesting times.”
Craig Tindale is the Vice President of the Centre for Economic Stability, Professor Steve Keen’s non-profit research initiative.
Last edited by TheWholeEnchilada; 4th Jun 2012 at 21:55.
......and Australia has hitched its star to the Chinese economy.
The resulting misallocation of investment capital in mining should now be obvious:
IrrAUSional Exuberance | ZeroHedge
And as I said months ago, Qantas investors will cry themselves to sleep over the treasure invested in these stupid operations.
The resulting misallocation of investment capital in mining should now be obvious:
IrrAUSional Exuberance | ZeroHedge
And as I said months ago, Qantas investors will cry themselves to sleep over the treasure invested in these stupid operations.
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