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Fallacy or Fact - Qantas International losses

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Fallacy or Fact - Qantas International losses

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Old 28th Jul 2011, 03:10
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Contact Qantas | Contact Centres and Office Contacts

Qantas Bangkok Office IS Tour East Thailand.

Arms length? Minority Interest?

So the Jetstar Flight Attendant service provider is also the Qantas Office.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 04:01
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Who is paying for the 10 new F100s for Network in WA?
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 04:01
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Any Qantas Club member who is travelling on a Jetstar flight has use of the Qantas Club. Does this cost get billed to Jetstar? Answer no!!!
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 04:03
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Is Qantas actually gifting Jetstar money???
Perhaps we are all blinded ? Perhaps QF is actually a generous philanthropist and is merely donating to a needy endeavor ?

I hope that Geoffrey Thomas reads this thread, takes notes and then proceeds to ask Joyce and Buchanan for some quantative answers.
Not likely. You need a reporter who is unbiased and actually understands his subject matter ! Now, Pheelan is another story (pardon the pun), he is the man that you want doing the reporting.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 04:13
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From post #114

Spoke to QF hosty. Her brother a Jet* NZ cadet. Flown by company on day 1 to NZ to open bank account. 5 hours later back in Melbourne residing at what was previously Hilton Airport Hotel. Lives there permanently. Earns NZ wage, no super etc etc. Can't break bond or massive financial disadvantage
So which group is picking up the bill for this young lad???
Jetstar or Qantas?
Anyone able to go detective mode and get an invoice from the Hotel that they send to either of those two?
Going through this list is like watching how ENRON unfolded
Too many shady practices and dodgy accountants who were on the payrolls
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 04:31
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surely all these allegations would be traceable given the electronic nature accounting software, emails etc etc... I guess it's a good things that burn bags only work with hard copies?

Under what circumstances would actually warrant some form of investigation that results in some accountablity/action if all this was true? Sunfish you seem to be the one with the quals that's able to answer that question.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 04:55
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Budfox,
I have LONG seen parallels between Enron and QF. I don't know a lot about QF management, but I work for them and I would kid myself I know a fair bit about Enron.

I would urge anyone to consider seriously the points you raise.

And I can't help myself with the handle..

"Blue Horseshoe LOVES Jet/Bluestar airlines"

'Use the offshore accounts, spread it round and nothing will get noticed. But you DO realise, if anything happens, you are totally on your own'....

etc etc...
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 07:09
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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QAN Shareholder
If you really want to understand the source of the problems with Qantas international you could request the profitability for each of the international routes for the last few years. This is fraught with danger though since I suspect it would become apparent that there are routes that haven't made a profit for years and have no prospect of making an acceptable return anytime soon hence either routes or costs need to be cut. It is far easier to remain in ignorance and keep pretending that management are evil and corrupt.
I think it has already been pointed out to you that due to monumental cock ups in fleet decision by current and previous management and further monumental cock ups in the deploying of currently arriving new fleet, and future arrivals of new fleet types is partly to blame for this - directly attributable to senior management. Furthermore lets compare apples with apples.

A QF A330 and a JQ A330 theoretically have exactly the same fixed costs. Fuel, maintenance, landing charges, airways fees etc - I could go on. The only major variables are catering, crew costs and ancillary options . If we look specifically at crewing costs on board the aircraft - pilots in particular - they usually make up around 3 - 4% of the ticket price. If AJ states that QF pilots do actually cost 40% more than their JQ counterparts (which I think you will find is a major lie - or perhaps its an AJ calculator problem), then another 1.6% of the ticket price could be attributable by crew. This would make absolutely bugger all difference in the grand scheme of things. Then if BB and AJ say that if JQ crew would be paid QF rates, their airline model would go broke. They are pretty thin margins they are working on UNLESS, QF mainline is footing the bills. If the margins are running that thin that 1.6% makes or breaks the business, then I can hardly imagine that JQ are making their claimed 1st half profit of $143 Mil.

Now that you have a clearer picture, I'll reply to your statement. JQ aren't going to make returns on QF routes that it displaces QF from and in some cases will lose more money due to the low yield business model. Japan is a perfect example. QF fly full loads out of Narita but JQ doesn't come close. It is industry known that Japanese travel agents will boycott Jetstar due to its brand image from Nagoya etc and bus/train/ internal flight passengers to Narita to fly QF. One could argue that the "evil and corrupt" management that you are referring to are not at all interested in running a successful airline but would rather turn QF into a travel agency. I'm tipping that they have no idea how to run a successful premium carrier even though they had the advantage of having a multi billion dollar brand name handed to them on a plate! They obviously come from the philosophy of how to make a small fortune in aviation is start with a large one.

I'd be interested to hear what you think is going to happen with AJ and BB planting $500 mil into JQ Asia in Singapore when SQ are going to retaliate with their own LCC. Do you really think that SQ are going to let them get away with pushing in on their turf? I'm sure they've been wined and dined and told "we look forward to you investing here" but I'd say your going to see $500 mil flushed down the Singapore sewer - along with the ensuing blood bath. LCC are a cut throat industry and AJ has already been stabbed in the back by his CEO "mate" over at Air Asia . Where do you think that $500 mil will be sourced?

The fact of the matter is that AJ and his band of merry men's story is changing faster than Paris Hiltons boyfriends and if you truly believe the myopic spin he keeps putting out then I guess you'd also be happy with the current share price, the direction its been taking since AJ took the helm and lack of dividends. I have QF shares and I'm bloody appalled!

So back to topic:

QF mainline made a first half profit of $165 mil, JQ made an 18% increase to $143 mil. Virgin made $72 mil and JB stated that the leisure market is badly performing but the business market is improving. This all sourced from Australian newspaper. 17th Feb 2011.
If this is the case, how did QF lose more than $365 mil in 5 months, and how did JQ make double what virgin made if the leisure conditions were so bad as publicly stated in the media? (see bad wx, floods affecting tourist destinations served by VB and JQ)

Why did QF shut down the centre of service excellence for Rollers (engine shop) when they now can't even get access to Asian facilities to get what one could consider essential modifications to the compressors which if not done compromise safety? What cost can you attribute to the damage this has caused to the brand (apart from AJ opening his mouth) and why revenue stream wasn't sort when it was open for maintenance for other airlines?
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 07:46
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Hey Steve, how'd it go today? Specific answers not necessary, just wanted to know if any of the questions you had made them squirm?
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 09:59
  #130 (permalink)  
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G'day all,

Left home (Mel) at 5, long day in FWA (Syd) and back home at 7. I've watched the number of posts on this thread climb all day and dreading the task of reading them all but so looking forward to it. Will have a good look tomorrow. Keep adding or sending me pm's, the questions should all have to be answered.

cheers
Steve
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 10:12
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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Couple more:

QF mainline made a first half profit of $165 mil, JQ made an 18% increase to $143 mil. Virgin made $72 mil and JB stated that the leisure market is badly performing but the business market is improving. This all sourced from Australian newspaper. 17th Feb 2011.
If this is the case, how did QF lose more than $365 mil in 5 months, and how did JQ make double what virgin made if the leisure conditions were so bad as publicly stated in the media? (see bad wx, floods affecting tourist destinations served by VB and JQ)

Why did QF shut down the centre of service excellence for Rollers (engine shop) when they now can't even get access to Asian facilities to get what one could consider essential modifications to the compressors which if not done compromise safety? What cost can you attribute to the damage this has caused to the brand (apart from AJ opening his mouth) and why revenue stream wasn't sort when it was open for maintenance for other airlines?
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 10:25
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Lyell Strambi is quoted as saying "I have explored on numerous occasions making a low cost carrier work and the numbers just didn't add up".... So how is Jetstar working Lyell?
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 11:38
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Sunfish

Unfortunately you are simply wrong and/or deliberately spreading disinformation. The basic mechanics of internal cost allocations between business units that the boys are talking about here are very easy, obvious and transparent. They have every right to ask questions and the answers they requested are easy to provide, since the account coding system will tell them the answers.

This is accounting 101, not rocket science and certainly not the "metaphysics" some forms of cost allocation involve. Its straight forward business costing that is applicable to any business, not just an airline.

Where it can get highly technical is where we start talking about costs charged per man hour/ block hour/ engine hour/ cycle, and how these are constructed, however we are nowhere near that subject yet.

What the boys have already found, in my opinion, is enough smoke and sparks to suggest that there really is a fire burning in the Qantas Accounting Department.

Any competent accountant should be able to produce a simple CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS* in less than a week that will indicate the extent of the issue, or not. Translation: It ain't "too hard" at this level, but nice try.

As i have stated multiple times before, what is lacking in Australia is the independent forensic airline accounting skills to analyse and perhaps prosecute Qantas for predatory pricing under the Trade Practices Act, even if successive governments weren't so supine as to want to try. Don't expect the big accounting firms to produce "independent" analysis either - they won't, if they ever want Qantas business again.

And this is the view of someone who it seems has never had to do an exercise like this. Your 'contribution analysis' would fall down straight away since indirect costs are very different between a largely domestic LCC and an international full service airline - IT systems, lounges, airport charges for example are all significantly lower for a LCC. Also the analysis would all be based on the underlying data being accurate which you claim it isn't.

Auditing major organisations is no simple task. The external audit gives a feel for how complex this is, from the annual report the cost last year was $3m which I guess involves about 20 people for around 3 months or about 5 man years work. The idea that one person could conclude on accuracy of cost allocation in a week is nonsense.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 11:47
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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QAN Shareholder, I believe the ALEA requested these long posts be put on this thread but seeing as you've started it:

If you really want to understand the source of the problems with Qantas international you could request the profitability for each of the international routes for the last few years. This is fraught with danger though since I suspect it would become apparent that there are routes that haven't made a profit for years and have no prospect of making an acceptable return anytime soon hence either routes or costs need to be cut. It is far easier to remain in ignorance and keep pretending that management are evil and corrupt.
I think it has already been pointed out to you that due to monumental cock ups in fleet decision by current and previous management and further monumental cock ups in the deploying of currently arriving new fleet, and future arrivals of new fleet types is partly to blame for this - directly attributable to senior management. Furthermore lets compare apples with apples.

A QF A330 and a JQ A330 theoretically have exactly the same fixed costs. Fuel, maintenance, landing charges, airways fees etc - I could go on. The only major variables are catering, crew costs and ancillary options . If we look specifically at crewing costs on board the aircraft - pilots in particular - they usually make up around 3 - 4% of the ticket price. If AJ states that QF pilots do actually cost 40% more than their JQ counterparts (which I think you will find is a major lie - or perhaps its an AJ calculator problem), then another 1.6% of the ticket price could be attributable by crew. This would make absolutely bugger all difference in the grand scheme of things. Then if BB and AJ say that if JQ crew would be paid QF rates, their airline model would go broke. They are pretty thin margins they are working on UNLESS, QF mainline is footing the bills. If the margins are running that thin that 1.6% makes or breaks the business, then I can hardly imagine that JQ are making their claimed 1st half profit of $143 Mil.

Now that you have a clearer picture, I'll reply to your statement. JQ aren't going to make returns on QF routes that it displaces QF from and in some cases will lose more money due to the low yield business model. Japan is a perfect example. QF fly full loads out of Narita but JQ doesn't come close. It is industry known that Japanese travel agents will boycott Jetstar due to its brand image from Nagoya etc and bus/train/ internal flight passengers to Narita to fly QF. One could argue that the "evil and corrupt" management that you are referring to are not at all interested in running a successful airline but would rather turn QF into a travel agency. I'm tipping that they have no idea how to run a successful premium carrier even though they had the advantage of having a multi billion dollar brand name handed to them on a plate! They obviously come from the philosophy of how to make a small fortune in aviation is start with a large one.

I'd be interested to hear what you think is going to happen with AJ and BB planting $500 mil into JQ Asia in Singapore when SQ are going to retaliate with their own LCC. Do you really think that SQ are going to let them get away with pushing in on their turf? I'm sure they've been wined and dined and told "we look forward to you investing here" but I'd say your going to see $500 mil flushed down the Singapore sewer - along with the ensuing blood bath. LCC are a cut throat industry and AJ has already been stabbed in the back by his CEO "mate" over at Air Asia . Where do you think that $500 mil will be sourced?

The fact of the matter is that AJ and his band of merry men's story is changing faster than Paris Hiltons boyfriends and if you truly believe the myopic spin that he, BB and OW keeps putting out then I guess you'd also be happy with the current share price, the direction its been taking since AJ took the helm and lack of dividends. I have QF shares and I'm bloody appalled!
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 11:51
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Except this LCC's 'Business' class passenger have access to the Qantas Club. This LCC competes directly, landing at the same airport, using the same terminals as Qantas.

If it were purely a tiger model with its own clapped out tin shed terminal or common user / 2nd tier city airport terminals maybe that argument would stack.

As you've seen in this thread. Dozens of cases that people know about that insinuate that this LCC is getting a little bit more then a guiding hand in its growth.

Why couldn't tiger grow beyond a dozen aircraft in the same market Jetstar has managed to grow exponentially in 5 years ? Tiger has nowhere near the infrastructure as Jetstar. Jetstar has its own heavy maintenance facility!(good on em for that at least). No way in hell is Tiger's cost base higher then Jetstars. The numbers don't stack at Tiger, it's barely breaking even, its pulled out of routes, its parent has distanced itself from the OZ operation.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 11:51
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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QAN Shareholder:

And this is the view of someone who it seems has never had to do an exercise like this. Your 'contribution analysis' would fall down straight away since indirect costs are very different between a largely domestic LCC and an international full service airline - IT systems, lounges, airport charges for example are all significantly lower for a LCC. Also the analysis would all be based on the underlying data being accurate which you claim it isn't.

Auditing major organisations is no simple task. The external audit gives a feel for how complex this is, from the annual report the cost last year was $3m which I guess involves about 20 people for around 3 months or about 5 man years work. The idea that one person could conclude on accuracy of cost allocation in a week is nonsense.
Your true colours are showing.

1. I have done it, year ago, and i got caught in a blazing cross fire row between Brian Grey and Graeme McMahon as a result that almost got me fired.

2. The point of doing a contribution analysis is that INDIRECT COSTS ARE IRRELEVANT TO THE ANALYSIS - THAT IS WHY YOU DO THE EFFING THING!!!!!!

3. Don't try and use the "its complicated" defence - it isn't. You are talking bull****. The basics are simple and straight forward as the guys here have posted.

It only gets complicated when we want to calculate actual operating costs and make allocations of costs that are related to technical matters.

For example, tyre costs are related to number of wheels times number of cycles, not flying hours. Airframe costs are related to flying hours, etc, etc etc, - this is why I used the "metaphysics" quote. This stuff is can be argued about for hours - who pays for the fuel that goes into a Jetstar aircraft is not.

Same for pilots and cabin crew. Subtract costs of crew and fuel from revenue received and you get a contribution number. My guess would be that Qantas makes Twenty times the contribution that Jetstar makes (it is a guess). What then has to happen as ALEA Fed Sec has realised is how all that Qantas money is frittered away leaving Jetstar as the more profitable operation.

My instincts tell me that what is happening with Jetstar "Profits" is financial masturbation.

Real shareholders should be concerned.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 11:52
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AGM and My Proxy

I asked in this question in a specific thread but received little traction so I will ask it here
Who can I give my proxy to so that my meagre shareholding in Qantas and the voting rights attached will mean something?
If enough small shareholders provide their proxy to one individual then perhaps that individual will have more clout than many on their own.
Is this feasible?
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 12:29
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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I think it would be better if the entire QF workforce turned up at the AGM and voted these clowns out?!
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 20:59
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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From a post on Qrewroom,

every department,every operating entity in QF is assigned a Cost Centre number. What that means is if for example if you happen to be in Base Servicing and need a part then the LAME orders the said part number and books it out to CC01 ie Cost Centre 01.
Similarly, Phase Check, Wheels and Brakes, Hoses and Tubes etc etc all have different CC numbers.
When defunct AO transited thru Narita for example it was assigned a CC number. This allowed the company to bill, charge, man hours, ladders, oil dolley's,equipment, fuel etc to AO.
Guess what? - when J/S transits thru Narita it has no CC number,it just sorts of levitates thru like magic and pops out the other end in Sydney where the same thing happens.
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Old 28th Jul 2011, 21:14
  #140 (permalink)  
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I asked in this question in a specific thread but received little traction so I will ask it here
Who can I give my proxy to so that my meagre shareholding in Qantas and the voting rights attached will mean something?
If enough small shareholders provide their proxy to one individual then perhaps that individual will have more clout than many on their own.
Is this feasible?
I did see this post on other thread but think it may be a difficult process to have a win on. If your proxy was given to another employee, they would most likely double their voting power. If every employee gave their proxies to one person, that voting power would be less than 5% of the total.
By default the Board exercises any proxy that is not present at the meeting or pre-assigned to another. Their voting block would most likely total 90%.

I was at a AGM a few years back, the motion went up for Exec remuneration. There were about 500 people in attendance, not one voted in favour and nearly all voted against. Then the British Airways and other proxies went up on the display. Motion carried.
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