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Old 6th Oct 2011, 23:02
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A voice from the street!

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Old 7th Oct 2011, 08:30
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Well i'll be damned, Gen X, Y whatever you wish to call them have woken up !!
Listen to the kid folks, he knows his history, he comprehends the rort, he see's what is coming.
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Old 7th Oct 2011, 09:45
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Obviously an Enemy of The State.


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Old 7th Oct 2011, 18:28
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Old 7th Oct 2011, 18:42
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Old 7th Oct 2011, 20:42
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I read a lot of this stuff. I think only a few know whats comming.

The most important little bit of info I picked up in the last weeks is this;

Rumour has it that the german gov has ordered plates for printing Mark, and they are doing it in a hurry.

The reason is this:

Greece has 2 options,
1. stay in euro- euro banks take hair cut (nationalized), greek people take more of a hair cut, german economy will suffer because of high gov debt due to bail outs, merkel gets the sack since the germans ain't happy bout it, greece is ****** since they still have huge debt with high unemployment and thus depression.
2. leave euro- banks in euro nationalized, massive losses compared to 50%default by greece, greece devalues currency as much as it needs to wipe debt (money prining), greece recovers after the pain, less political unrest. Germany still has to nationalize banks, only this time it costs more since they lost 100% of their greek bonds, german economy suffers due to massive debt, inflation in germany will explode due to eventual money printing by ECB to bail out governments across europe. After this, the rest of the pigs will follow what greece did and thus the problem with decimate anyone left in the euro (germany, france etc. )

So either way germany is stuffed if they do nothing. The only real option they have is to be first off the boat. Print their own currency, sudden announcement that they will leave the euro. The mark will rapidly value against the euro and this will lead to a slowing of the massive export market in germany. Euro will collapse over night but germany won't be stuck with the bill at the end of the night if and when the pigs leave the euro. the rest of the euro community is stuffed.

It will be sudden and shocking, and this will ripple across the pond to the states, where the real problem will start.
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Old 7th Oct 2011, 20:48
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Foie gras, that is a breakfastburrito approved RANT


Jim Rickards has lots of interesting interviews floating around, well worth searching out. In this interview he nails the problem as Triffins dilemma.

Related is Gibson's paradox. This article: Gibson's Paradox Revisited: Professor Summers Analyzes Gold Prices explains how the former Treasury Secretary "solved" the paradox, utilizing government "pegging operations" to suppress the price of gold. As Rickards points out, in the end, Mr Market is bigger than even the central banks, hence the solution will only buy more time.
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Old 7th Oct 2011, 21:31
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Old 8th Oct 2011, 01:21
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Submitted by Brian Rogers of Fator Securities

Economic Punctuated Equilibrium

“I have been studying the traits and dispositions of the "lower animals" (so called) and contrasting them with the traits and dispositions of man. I find the result humiliating to me.” - Mark Twain, Letters from the Earth

Talking Brazil

Happy Friday to one and all. First things first, I just finished a multi-city non-deal roadshow with Banco Fator’s head of equity research and strategy, Lika Takahashi. For those who aren’t familiar with Lika, you really should be. She has been one of if not the most pragmatic, conservative Brazil equity strategists in the market and typically destroys her competition with her price target on the Ibov. Investors we spoke to had 3 main questions for Lika: 1) what is our outlook for inflation in Brazil, 2) what is our outlook for growth in Brazil and 3) what is our take on the Brazilian central bank’s recent decision to cut rates by 50bps.

On inflation, I think central bank head Tombini has a problem. He said he expects global growth to decline and this downturn in GDP will attenuate inflationary pressures in Brazil. The problem I have with this view is that the Fed, BOE, ECB and BOJ won’t simply sit around and take a deflationary slowdown without a fight. They will print, obviously. This will produce monetary inflation and will help to keep commodity prices resiliently high. Tombini expects inflation to come down, I say good luck with that.

On growth, it’s possible that Brazil keeps the 3.4% or so growth next year based on the strength of their services labor market and government spending for the World Cup and other infrastructure projects. However, keep a close eye on China. For the first six months or so of the year there weren’t too many analysts overly concerned about dramatically slowing growth in China. However, the last few months have seen a bevy of “hard landing” articles about China. If China does hard land, say 6% growth, then Brazil will also slow dramatically.

On the central bank’s decision to cut rates only 2 days after Dilma went on TV and said that she wished rates would go down, I obviously feel that the days of central banking independence championed by Henrique Meirelles are dead.

All that being said, I should note here that I am actually quite bullish on Brazil. Why? Simply put, they have options. Despite my concerns about Tombini’s recent move, the central bank has a plethora of tools they can implement to help stabilize any major volatility. Government spending and general debt levels have been conservative recently and could be increased to offset bad times. And finally, Brazil has one of the best demographic profiles around with a huge population of young people and an increasing trend of poor people moving up the economic ladder.

It’s not that Brazil will avoid all problems, they won’t, it’s just that on a relative basis Brazil is much better positioned to deal with their problems than the vast majority of developed nations and nearly all of the emerging market countries.

Which brings me to the macro view.

Economic Punctuated Equilibrium

The late Harvard/NYU paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge, who is the curator of the invertebrates department at the American Museum of Natural History, proposed a rather radical evolutionary theory in 1972 called punctuated equilibrium. The evolutionary thinking at the time was generally that species changed very slowly and gradually over time. Gould and Eldredge challenged this notion with punctuated equilibrium by arguing that rather than slow, gradual change, species remained stable for long periods of time and only changed during short, brief bursts of major change.

For example, an animal population could live for many generations without any noticeable change in genetic make-up. Then, due to the effects of an earthquake, volcano, climate change or some other major event, the population could be split into different groups with different geographies, food and water sources, climates, etc. As the populations react to the sudden change, they will go though rapid and noticeable adaptations to their new environment which will result in great change over a short period of time. However, after the major adjustment takes place, the population will stabilize again and largely remain the same until another great environmental change.

I’m obviously generalizing here and my apologies to the late Professor Gould and Professor Eldredge for the dumbed down explanation of their great theory, but I’m just an average equity research salesman and need to keep this simple.

When I think about the history of the financial and economic system of the US, I see many ways in which the theory of punctuated equilibrium is playing out. By and large, we have lived through long periods of general stasis punctuated by brief periods of radical change. Some of those periods of change can be identified as the creation of the Fed in 1913, the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the closing of the gold window in 1971 and the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 via Gramm-Leach-Bliley. After every one of these major turning points, the market has had to make quick, radical adjustments. Following the adjustments, sometimes painful ones, the market would enter into relatively long periods of “stability.” But stability for whom? The 1% that controls the game.

He Who Controls the Game Wins

In my opinion, the problems we face today are not because we built a robust, transparent, fair system that is simply facing a few bumps in the road. Hardly. The problems we face today exist because the economic system has never been allowed to evolve into a system that is truly fair or just for all. Rather it is designed to ensure that the 1% who have always controlled things will maintain that control. It’s all very subtle, but make no mistake about it, crony-capitalism is the rule of the day.

And even when we did implement evolutionary changes that benefited all members of society (Glass-Steagall), the powers that be patiently waited until the moment was right to snatch that freedom away from the people and hand it back to the 1% (Gramm-Leach-Bliley).

The Fed controls the issuance of our currency and thus controls the price of money. The Fed also oversees our banks and thus plays a hugely vital role in how transparent (or not) our banking system is. Politicians control the legislative process and largely determine the judges that oversee the judicial process. These same politicians are controlled by large corporations and wealthy individuals due to the ridiculous way our campaign finance laws work and our lack of term limits. See the pattern?

Is a New Economic Punctuated Equilibrium Moment Upon Us?

Given the complete and utter disaster that awaits us once the curtain is finally drawn back in Europe, it’s important to consider whether or not the crisis we currently face is nothing but another downturn or is it in fact another game-changing, punctuated equilibrium moment? I firmly believe it is the latter. I’ll spare the audience the laundry list of challenges we face as a global economy - unsustainable debt loads, ghost cities, peak oil, climate change, over $700tr in notional derivative exposure, etc. - it’s a long list. In the final analysis, it’s hard to conclude anything other than the system we’ve known since 1971 is about to implode.

The powers that be know this and they are very afraid. Every piece of chewing gum they’ve tried to use to glue their global economic model back together again has failed. Humpty Dumpty has had a great fall but the cracking-up isn’t over yet. Indeed, we have arrived again at one of the great turning points in economic history. However, the current destination is the one that the 1% hate so much. This is the moment where some of the 1% lose their grasp on power and money and witness first-hand Schumpeter’s creative destruction.

Historically, these are the times when pitchforks are carried and torches lit. Think about how wealthy, powerful Brits felt when news of the original Tea Party made its way to London. Think about how a rich plantation owner in the South felt when news of Lee’s defeat at Gettysburg filtered down. Think about how a New York investment banker felt in 1933 when Glass-Steagall was passed. They were very likely afraid, very afraid. The edifice of their power and wealth was crumbling down around them.

Which brings me to Zuccotti Park.

Something Very Big Is Occupying Wall Street

Financial analyst and commentar Mike Krieger wrote a great piece yesterday where he discussed the Occupy Wall Street protestors and what’s happening in Lower Manhattan. One of the comments I particularly liked was Mike’s use of Mahatma Gandhi’s great quote to describe how the protestors are being viewed by the powers that be.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” - Mahatma Gandhi

The protestors downtown have moved past the ignore stage as the media blackout has given way to the sheer weight of the story. The strategy has now shifted to discrediting/laughing at/making fun of the protestors. The problem with this phase for the media will be the extremely difficult way it’s going to be to pigeon hole this crowd. They don’t represent the left or the right. They don’t represent the Dems or Repubs, business owners or labor unions, capitalists or socialists, rich or poor, black or white. They represent all of us.

All of the above groups are present and participating in these rallies. The protestors aren’t necessarily anti-capitalist or anti-corporation per se. They are anti the current system. The system that they have no influence over and yet controls their lives. The system that has seen average real wages remain flat for decades while inflation slowly exacts its insidious costs. The system that pushes forward fake politicians with movie star smiles, populist rhetoric and polished speaking styles, whose sole mission once elected is to maintain the status quo for the wealthy individuals and corporations that got them elected. The system that prints out of thin air and borrows from third world China and elsewhere trillions of dollars to bail out the wealthy while sending the bill the average taxpayer. The system that will produce, for the first time in the history of the United States of America, a current generation of young citizens who will be worse off than their parents were before them.

That’s what I think the protestors are all about and I support it 100%. Occupy Wall Street is creating the next economic punctuated equilibrium moment and I say the sooner the better.

Have a great weekend.

Brian

* Fator Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, is a U.S. entity and a member of the Fator group of companies in Brazil. The comments below are from Brian Rogers, who is employed by Fator Securities (Brian’s opinions are his own and do not constitute the opinions of Fator Securities or the Fator group of companies).

Fator Securities LLC is not affiliated with Zero Hedge or any third party mentioned in this communication; nor is Fator Securities LLC responsible for content on third party websites referred to in this communication.

This material was not prepared by Fator Securities LLC. U.S. Persons seeking further information must contact Fator Securities LLC in New York at (646) 205-1160. This material shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy (may only be made at the time qualified participants are in receipt of the requisite documentation, e.g., confidential private offering memorandum describing the offering, related subscription agreement, etc.). Securities shall not be offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful or until all applicable regulatory or legal requirements of such jurisdictions have been satisfied. This material is not intended for general public use or distribution and is intended for distribution only to appropriate investors. The opinions contained herein are based on personal judgments and estimates and are, therefore, subject to revision. Past performances are not indicative of future results.
Source:Guest Post: Economic Punctuated Equilibrium
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Old 8th Oct 2011, 06:19
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Occur12.again interesting how in your first video the guy talks up gold and then in the next video another guy says he doesn't like it despite the fact they are both pretty much talking about the same end game.

With currency debasement happening there is only one dieection for gold to travel, and that's North. Question is, when to off load it.
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Old 8th Oct 2011, 11:18
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The only real option they have is to be first off the boat. Print their own currency, sudden announcement that they will leave the euro.
Apparently that isn't an option as there is no constitutional way anyone can exit the Eurozone. If there was; number one would be to punt the Greeks, deflate their dollar and start the country again as with Argentina.

You would find if Germany tried to exit they would be taken to the European High Court. Ultimately they are a sovereign nation and can do what ever they want but they would want to have the military ready to backup any form of exodus of Europe as it will get ugly.
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Old 8th Oct 2011, 11:39
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You would find if Germany tried to exit they would be taken to the European High Court. Ultimately they are a sovereign nation and can do what ever they want but they would want to have the military ready to backup any form of exodus of Europe as it will get ugly.
this is true. I guess if the rumours of mark printing are true they will take the risk, it would obliteration the euro before anything could be decided in the euro court. The announcement will be backed up by immediate bank holiday in europe to stop a run on the french, italian etc banks. The euro will be dead instantly and there won't be anything to fight over.

The other thing is that it is not the germans fault the greek, spanish governments were reckless and so it would be politically possible to push it through.
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 02:43
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Some UK momentum, once again more measures about to be unleashed to ensure pensions become worthless, inflation empties your pocket, and your superannuation takes a hiding. Quantitative easing by the Bank of England (printing more money)
Quantitative easing by the Bank of England: printing more money won’t work this time - Telegraph

There has never been proof that QE works. The question is 'did people know about the BoE’s QE plan before it was announced? Damn straight - there was a strange 4% rally on Tuesday.Yep, the bankers, politicians and those in power get the inside tip, secure their assets while everyone else gets screwed. Add to this the EURO's collapsing and the USD collapsing and you have the 1930's again on our doorstep.
The EURO is dead, the USD is dead and the Pound is not far behind it.
What is unravelling is the death of greed and incompetence. Any child could see that 'printing money' to create material worth is simply as ludicrous as it sounds.

I just hope that when it finally implodes the mass populous track down the merchant bakers, lying politicians, federal reserve board members, parasites, manipulators, leeches and Wall Street pigs who have killed the world's global chance of prosperity to satisfy the lust of an elite few.

This story is playing out still and the ending will be the greatest financial, social and economical bloodbath in 80 years.
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Old 9th Oct 2011, 13:33
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BreakfastBurrito. Did you get that article from Zerohedge? One of my favorite sites.
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Old 16th Oct 2011, 03:20
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Cost Index, yes that one came from ZH.



He gets to the Australian economy at the 18:40 mark. He blog is: debtdeflation.com, with particular emphasis on the Aussie housing market.
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Old 16th Oct 2011, 04:07
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Steve Keen's interview, at 4:05 - very relevant to this situation.
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Old 17th Oct 2011, 01:15
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Anyone seen any other Australian bloggers online that address property, precious metals, bonds and inflation/deflation possibilities? Everything I've seen is very US or EUR centric, a local perspective would be great.
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Old 17th Oct 2011, 01:48
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CI, slide over to talkfinance.net, they have a great relatively low volume series of forums that focus on all the AU issues you mention.

Another is macrobusiness.com.au, this is open to all contributors in an article/comments format.
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Old 19th Oct 2011, 02:20
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Thanks BB, will do.
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Old 20th Oct 2011, 00:41
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Must watch interview

If you have been following this thread and understand the fraud of "debt as money" is the root cause of the ongoing crisis, this interview will make complete sense and join more pieces of the jigsaw puzzle together.

William Black was the chief prosecutor in the Savings & Loans crisis of the late 80's. He also has an interview on FSN on the same topic: William Black: Why Nobody Went to Jail During the Credit Crisis The FBI is no longer chasing white collar criminals (downloadable interview & transcript).

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