Globalisation debt & banking
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Keen had previously claimed Australian housing would decrease by 40% in real terms over a decade or so. Keen was ambushed at a news conference by Robertson, who out of the blue challenged him on the claim, offered him the bet, but threw in the "within 1 year rider", the "within 1 year" appeared to be agreed to unwittingly by Keen.
Here are his own words:Kosciuszko Walk. What was unpredictable was the change in government policy (First Home Buyers Grant) to prop up the market. That antidote is now wearing off and housing is again on the descent, merely delayed, not fixed by the policy.
As for being the a joke, he was one of the few economists who called the crash in 08, despite Glen Stevens claiming "nobody could have predicted it", well, he did, years before, as did the Austrian school (Keen is post-Keynesian).
Here are his own words:Kosciuszko Walk. What was unpredictable was the change in government policy (First Home Buyers Grant) to prop up the market. That antidote is now wearing off and housing is again on the descent, merely delayed, not fixed by the policy.
As for being the a joke, he was one of the few economists who called the crash in 08, despite Glen Stevens claiming "nobody could have predicted it", well, he did, years before, as did the Austrian school (Keen is post-Keynesian).
Last edited by TheWholeEnchilada; 10th Jul 2012 at 17:32.
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Sir James Michael "Jimmy" Goldsmith (26 February 1933 18 July 1997) was an Anglo-French financier. Towards the end of his life, he became a magazine publisher and a politician. In 1994, he was elected to represent France as a Member of the European Parliament and he subsequently founded the short-lived eurosceptic Referendum Party in Britain.
In this interview, Sir Goldsmith discusses the ramifications of free-trade agreements that were about to take place in 1994 (GATT), as you can retrospectively see, he correctly predicted many of the things that happened after that.
In this interview, Sir Goldsmith discusses the ramifications of free-trade agreements that were about to take place in 1994 (GATT), as you can retrospectively see, he correctly predicted many of the things that happened after that.
James Goldsmith GATT Senate Testimony (1995) - mp3 in link (archive.org)
Goldsmiths book " " and " " are still available on amazon.
Did he get it right? The blowing of serial credit bubbles (internet & housing) during the 90's & 00's allowed the effects of globalization on income to be masked.
Last edited by TheWholeEnchilada; 13th Jul 2012 at 23:34. Reason: scribd & archive links addeded
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Can anyone recommend any good books about the Currency Wars going on now but without the Keneysian slant? Funnily enough, there is one called "Currency Wars" but I've heard mixed reviews.
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CI, Jim Rickards has a book out
. I would describe him as the anti-keynsian reincarnated. Although I haven't read the book, there has been quite a bit of controversy about his conclusions. Here's a few critiques to get you started.
(I've used tinyurl for the ******** links -if the fofoa links are broken - this is due to ********'s DNS system being regionalized, use: fofoa [dot] blospot [dot] com followed by the trailing part of the URL)
http://fofoa.********.com/2011/11/discussion-forum.html
http://fofoa.********.com/2012/02/todays-quoteunquote-gold.html
and
Currency Wars: Why The United States Cannot Return To A Gold Standard
(I've used tinyurl for the ******** links -if the fofoa links are broken - this is due to ********'s DNS system being regionalized, use: fofoa [dot] blospot [dot] com followed by the trailing part of the URL)
http://fofoa.********.com/2011/11/discussion-forum.html
http://fofoa.********.com/2012/02/todays-quoteunquote-gold.html
and
Currency Wars: Why The United States Cannot Return To A Gold Standard
Last edited by TheWholeEnchilada; 16th Jul 2012 at 03:55.
To see an extremely simple explanation of why the US debt is what it is, getting worse and will NEVER be fixed, Watch this 5 min clip using the summary of the US govt's own budget for 2012/ 2013.
United States Budget Dilemma.wmv - YouTube
Basic math here, outgoings grossly exceed incoming cash flow. No end in sight.
Did you notice how in the big red graph,( at 3min:11sec) it was 1942, mid WW2 before the debt even registered on the graph and stayed throughout the war and until 1980-1982 at approx 1/3 to 1/2 trillion, then it went to 1 trillion.After that the only slight slowdown was in the yr or 2 after 9/11.
Also note at 2008-09 after the last election the debt was 9 Trillion the slope of the curve steepened dramatically.
Notice too how he says the current US debt is 25% of the whole worlds GDP.
I would say "God help America", but I don't think that will happen.
Congress got the country into this mess and it doesn't look like, based on the future year figures on the pages he highlighted on, it is ever going to fix it.
Pause the pages and Have a look at the future year figures in the same rows he has highlighted for the 2012 year in his explanation.
Damn terrifying.
United States Budget Dilemma.wmv - YouTube
Basic math here, outgoings grossly exceed incoming cash flow. No end in sight.
Did you notice how in the big red graph,( at 3min:11sec) it was 1942, mid WW2 before the debt even registered on the graph and stayed throughout the war and until 1980-1982 at approx 1/3 to 1/2 trillion, then it went to 1 trillion.After that the only slight slowdown was in the yr or 2 after 9/11.
Also note at 2008-09 after the last election the debt was 9 Trillion the slope of the curve steepened dramatically.
Notice too how he says the current US debt is 25% of the whole worlds GDP.
I would say "God help America", but I don't think that will happen.
Congress got the country into this mess and it doesn't look like, based on the future year figures on the pages he highlighted on, it is ever going to fix it.
Pause the pages and Have a look at the future year figures in the same rows he has highlighted for the 2012 year in his explanation.
Damn terrifying.
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The doom and gloom sky falling in gold stashing paranoia that seems to overwhelm people is almost startling....
The only thing to fear is fear itself said W. Churchill - so true.
I agree that the US is in a lot of debt and it "looks" like a train wreck.
But they have a massive trump card in their hand that can quickly change everything..... CHEAP OIL.
This is the "blood" of the economy, a price around 15 dollars a barrel again will see that debt almost vaporise.
Years and Years of work has gone into OPEC and Saudi "arrangements" to ensure this lever can be pulled as necessary.
And it will - in time
The only thing to fear is fear itself said W. Churchill - so true.
I agree that the US is in a lot of debt and it "looks" like a train wreck.
But they have a massive trump card in their hand that can quickly change everything..... CHEAP OIL.
This is the "blood" of the economy, a price around 15 dollars a barrel again will see that debt almost vaporise.
Years and Years of work has gone into OPEC and Saudi "arrangements" to ensure this lever can be pulled as necessary.
And it will - in time
Cheap oil!
The USA!
Where has this been hidden all of these years?
"Years and Years of work has gone into OPEC and Saudi "arrangements" to ensure this lever can be pulled as necessary."
What lever would that be?
The USA!
Where has this been hidden all of these years?
"Years and Years of work has gone into OPEC and Saudi "arrangements" to ensure this lever can be pulled as necessary."
What lever would that be?
Grandpa Aerotart
Not hidden at all - they knew where it was - has just taken this long for the technology, fracking, to mature enough to get it out cost effectively.
The world will see $50/bbl before it ever sees $200/bbl.
The Gold/OIL/USD relationship mentioned above may very well have been true in 1971 - but now the idiots in charge know the cost of relying on ME oil.
And there is no great conspiracy - its just pure political short termism and stupidity that got the west to where its at. And Greenies.
Within a decade the US will be the marginal oil producer in the world again making the Saudis look like Kiwis in the oil stakes - in the meantime oil prices will trend downwards on average. The Israelis just found HUGE oil and NG reserves off their coast too.
Yes the Yanks have dug themselves a BIG financial hole - if they can get Barry out of the way and put in conservative pollies and 'drill baby drill' they can slowly climb back out again. Already corporations that offshored are heading back to the US...because energy is getting cheaper and asians are looking expensive relative to their productivity.
Europe is still a big problem - they're less likely to turn that around.
The world will see $50/bbl before it ever sees $200/bbl.
The Gold/OIL/USD relationship mentioned above may very well have been true in 1971 - but now the idiots in charge know the cost of relying on ME oil.
And there is no great conspiracy - its just pure political short termism and stupidity that got the west to where its at. And Greenies.
Within a decade the US will be the marginal oil producer in the world again making the Saudis look like Kiwis in the oil stakes - in the meantime oil prices will trend downwards on average. The Israelis just found HUGE oil and NG reserves off their coast too.
Yes the Yanks have dug themselves a BIG financial hole - if they can get Barry out of the way and put in conservative pollies and 'drill baby drill' they can slowly climb back out again. Already corporations that offshored are heading back to the US...because energy is getting cheaper and asians are looking expensive relative to their productivity.
Europe is still a big problem - they're less likely to turn that around.
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The original “seven sisters” basically ExxonMobil and Chevron of the US and Europe’s BP and Royal Dutch Shell have now been dwarfed by
the new seven sisters: Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom, CNPC of China, NIOC of Iran, Venezuela’s PDVSA, Brazil’s Petrobras and Petronas of Malaysia.
As the economic effects of this “balance of power” shift, just be aware that HIGH PRICES CAN EASILY BECOME LOW PRICES.
Under the Reagan Admin the price of oil was manipulated so low that it sent The Sovient Union broke and essentially won the cold war without a shot being fired. Spectacularly successful.
The old policy applied in Reverse has seen China pay crazy prices for anything they want. Economic warfare is far less costly than actual wars/sanctions/political unrest etc.
The invasion of IRAQ under the pretense of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) was actually an oil play. 2/3 of Iraq has not even been drilled for oil, but you can expect trouble to follow anywhere that China looks for oil at the moment.
Anyway, I digress, point is this, there are 3 big levers that can be pulled to change the economic landscape worldwide. The price of
1) Oil
2) Iron Ore
3) Wheat
The people who control these control the world and they prefer stability to people with gold bars and guns under their beds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the new seven sisters: Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom, CNPC of China, NIOC of Iran, Venezuela’s PDVSA, Brazil’s Petrobras and Petronas of Malaysia.
As the economic effects of this “balance of power” shift, just be aware that HIGH PRICES CAN EASILY BECOME LOW PRICES.
Under the Reagan Admin the price of oil was manipulated so low that it sent The Sovient Union broke and essentially won the cold war without a shot being fired. Spectacularly successful.
The old policy applied in Reverse has seen China pay crazy prices for anything they want. Economic warfare is far less costly than actual wars/sanctions/political unrest etc.
The invasion of IRAQ under the pretense of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) was actually an oil play. 2/3 of Iraq has not even been drilled for oil, but you can expect trouble to follow anywhere that China looks for oil at the moment.
Anyway, I digress, point is this, there are 3 big levers that can be pulled to change the economic landscape worldwide. The price of
1) Oil
2) Iron Ore
3) Wheat
The people who control these control the world and they prefer stability to people with gold bars and guns under their beds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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David Stockman interview (30min) on how its all gone wrong, plenty of history. There is an excellent analysis of the great bond carry trade, and the great "margin call in the sky".
He has a new book coming out early 2013, available on pre-order: .
Stockman mentions Walter Bagehot, here's a link to his book Lombard Street (direct .pdf download) - and more links to his books available on archive.org HERE.
He has a new book coming out early 2013, available on pre-order: .
Stockman mentions Walter Bagehot, here's a link to his book Lombard Street (direct .pdf download) - and more links to his books available on archive.org HERE.
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The Baltic Dry index is trending downwards.
Although this could be oversupply with new ships coming online, I interpret this as a definite signal demand is weakening.
Not sure how big the stockpiles are in China, but if demand weakens prices should drop.
I think people in Australia are becoming more aware that Mining is not the "solution" for all our economic future.
Iron ore and gold are currently Way over priced. As gold "retracts" expect the USD to strengthen.
At levels above 105USD Australian - I think buying some USD would be a good investment.
Europe demographically cannot "work" its way out of its commitment to old people with pensions etc. Spain is in real trouble, along with Greece and Italy. The real question is whether Germany will stay in the EURO because they will tire of bailing out these economies when they are strong.
If the EURO keeps trending upwards, will be good for tourism from OZ
Although this could be oversupply with new ships coming online, I interpret this as a definite signal demand is weakening.
Not sure how big the stockpiles are in China, but if demand weakens prices should drop.
I think people in Australia are becoming more aware that Mining is not the "solution" for all our economic future.
Iron ore and gold are currently Way over priced. As gold "retracts" expect the USD to strengthen.
At levels above 105USD Australian - I think buying some USD would be a good investment.
Europe demographically cannot "work" its way out of its commitment to old people with pensions etc. Spain is in real trouble, along with Greece and Italy. The real question is whether Germany will stay in the EURO because they will tire of bailing out these economies when they are strong.
If the EURO keeps trending upwards, will be good for tourism from OZ
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Germany will stay in the euro if they can hold it together. If the Euro countries break up Germany will have the highest valued currency and therefore would be the least competitive and there economy would faulter. No way they want out, they just want to stay in for the least amount of help to the rest as possible.
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SN
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Spain has 25% Unemployment.
They will need a hundred Billion dollars every year for some time to come.
I'm not sure whether the "bailout" buckets are going to be that big!!!!!!!!!
They will need a hundred Billion dollars every year for some time to come.
I'm not sure whether the "bailout" buckets are going to be that big!!!!!!!!!