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Old 20th Oct 2011, 23:07
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Roger that...!

 
Old 21st Oct 2011, 04:59
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Foie gras - Well done!
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Old 24th Oct 2011, 03:57
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Nassim Taleb on #OccupyWallStreet, Global Banking and Hammurabi's Code


Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan" and a New York University professor, discusses the "Occupy Wall Street" protest and his view of the global banking system. Taleb, speaking with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack," also discusses the need to apply the principles of "Hammurabi's Code" to the banking system.


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Old 24th Oct 2011, 09:15
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John Perkins The economic hit man

Tell me it isn't true

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Old 24th Oct 2011, 22:54
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EU Swiss Army Knife - CDO'd, Squared and Cubed!

Remember: when in doubt, baffle with bull****. From Dow Jones:

EU Paper Confirms Looking At 2 EFSF Options, May Combine Them -Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF Option To Set Up Special Purpose Investment Vehicle -Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF Bond Insurance and Special Vehicle Options Could Be Combined - Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says Neither EFSF Leverage Option Requires Change To EFSF Rules -Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF SPIV Would Combine Public, Private Capital - Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF Could Set Up One Central Euro Zone SPIV - Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF SPIVs Could Be Set Up In Several Euro Zone Countries - Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF SPIVs Would Be Used For Bond Purchases, Bank Recapitalization - Senior EU Source
EU Paper Says EFSF Bond Insurance To Be Tradable Independently Of Bonds - Senior EU Source
It also has a Phillips-head screwdriver, opens cans, serves as a flashlight, dispenses crazy pills can be used as a garrote. And if you act now, you can get get a second one free for the low, low price of €1 trillion, leveraged infinitely courtesy of the world's most complex structured credit product ever conceived.

(Another ZH product.)
 
Old 25th Oct 2011, 04:34
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It gets worse. That red haired clown Gillard has come out blazing and naturally is defending Obama saying the economical issues are all Europe's fault !
Of course, the mighty USA couldn't have fu#ked up, I mean they have the worlds most effective tax system don't they?

Gillard is also hinting (Swanny is being more cautious) that countries outside of the EU may have to 'chip in' to pull the EU out of it's giant hole. You heard it, Australian taxpayers to chip in and help pay off another countries billions that were squandered and misappropriated by government incompetence, arrogance, and banking cartel greed sanctioned by government!
Let her try, if one cent more of my taxpayer money goes towards bailing out another countries corporate greed while our own health system, transport, infrastructure, pensioner and childcare systems are caving in I will be leading the charge against this out of touch regime in Australia we are all ensnared by.
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Old 25th Oct 2011, 05:19
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The grand plan of world banking,debt and the pursuit of power. World government coming to you soon .The video is 32 minutes long but well worth it.


David Icke - Essential Knowledge For A Wall Street Protestor - YouTube
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Old 27th Oct 2011, 09:17
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Now I am getting really worried...the EU is going to ask China for money.....this seems to me to make no sense at all, I mean why would China even be interested in investing in something that appears to be in terminal meltdown???
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Old 27th Oct 2011, 09:33
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Why Would China Help ?

The Eurozone is a major importer of Chinese goods
Prop them up so they can continue to purchase goods..OR
Perhaps China just wants to be a good global citizen?
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Old 27th Oct 2011, 20:55
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Jim Rickards had two very interesting interviews on the Euro (3 Oct and 17 Oct). He talks about a 3-way system between the US, Europe & China and you can't just consider the bilateral relationships.

Jim's new book Currency Wars is in pre-release and is already #3 best seller in international economics, he is very well followed.

Another couple of interviews that are worth listening two are by Martin Armstrong (previous interview is linked from that page). Armstrong also releases a large number of papers on his web site: Armstrongeconomics.com.
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Old 30th Oct 2011, 06:08
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Australia's Turn

I've said it before and now say it again, we have been "cruising in coffin corner" for too long and finally have hit some turbulence.
Prepare for recovery, or go down with the ship.

We've discussed many issues pertaining to global economies, debt and the meaning of life, etc.,
Sourced, not just from ZeroHedge and Market Ticker, now!
Steve Keen has made some great regional comment.

Largely, the Australasian situation has been ignored.
So; we believe in the bs that has been flowing from those above?
(I have an aversion to large birds, swans are included, sorry!)
Once again riding on the sheep's back.
Apathetic, maybe?

Do you continue to follow the group think, or stand on your own feet?
Time to pull your head out of the sand, and hopefully prepare.
 
Old 31st Oct 2011, 05:44
  #192 (permalink)  
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When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.
--Frederic Bastiat


Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Thus the beneficiaries are spared the shame and danger that their acts would otherwise involve… But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them and gives it to the other persons to whom it doesn’t belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime. Then abolish that law without delay - No legal plunder; this is the principle of justice, peace, order, stability, harmony and logic.”
― Frédéric Bastiat, The Law



“You say: "There are persons who lack education" and you turn to the law. But the law is not, in itself, a torch of learning which shines its light abroad. The law extends over a society where some persons have knowledge and others do not; where some citizens need to learn, and others can teach. In this matter of education, the law has only two alternatives: It can permit this transaction of teaching-and-learning to operate freely and without the use of force, or it can force human wills in this matter by taking from some of them enough to pay the teachers who are appointed by government to instruct others, without charge. But in the second case, the law commits legal plunder by violating liberty and property.”
― Frédéric Bastiat, The Law
The Law Frédéric Bastiat [.pdf] 1850. Also available as an audiobook [.mp3].

How prophetic of Bastiat. We have just witnessed "The Law" being used for plunder. Nothing new under the sun.
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Old 7th Nov 2011, 20:34
  #193 (permalink)  
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Financial Cancer: Our Financial System Is Intrinsically Fraudulent and Unstable

November 7, 2011

Our financial system is like a fast-mutating cancer that evades any control and is still perfecting its ability to game and loot.

Two frequent contributors provided fresh insights into why the current global financial system will implode: it is intrinsically fraudulent and acts as a financial cancer, evading the "immune system" of regulation and perfecting its ability to exploit and loot the last remaining pockets of low-risk capital.

We start with David P.'s excellent exploration of systemic fraud:


Your essay The Collapse of Our Corrupt, Predatory, Pathological Financial System Is Necessary and Positive was entirely correct about risk. But let me come at this from a different angle - namely fraud.
Finance skims a percentage off the real economy. Some part of the skim is legitimate reward for capital allocation - a necessary part of a capitalist system and part of what makes it more efficient than a command economy. But some part of the skim is fraud.

Where are we now? Let's look at the sources of skim:

First there are the more legitimate skim sources - interest payments, management fees, IPO fees, M&A fees, trade commissions.

Then there are the less legitimate bank sources: penalty credit card interest rates, late fees, usage fees, over-the-limit fees, late payment fees, bounced check fees, low balance fees. And the capital markets sources - front-running, insider trading, account churning, manipulation of the news cycle, the captive analyst "ratings game", trading against your own client's order book, forex trades which are marked at the day high or low irrespective of when the trade took place, market manipulations at options expiration, stuffing your managed client accounts full of dubious IPOs and new issues that your organization is earning fees from originating.

Bucket shops and ponzi schemes take it even a step further - no actual financial activity takes place. Its simply robbery.

And now we add the new stuff: credit default swaps without margin, fraudulent loan origination, sliced & diced mortgages, mark to myth accounting, foreclosure halts to avoid realizing losses, extend & pretend, quote stuffing, HFT trading activity that boils down to denial of service attacks on exchange computers causing delays in pricing information, highly complex derivatives sold to unsuspecting but optimistic public servants, too big to fail status providing cheap backup in the event of trouble, and increased organizational size that facilitate cartel-like control over government and regulators.

But if that's not enough, there is the structure itself: they aren't doing this with saved capital, but rather with freshly printed and/or borrowed capital. Its all done with 12:1 leverage at a minimum. So only 8.3% of the gambling (optimistically anyway) is actual capital - saved surplus. And if Basel II says it's risk-free, well there's no need for reserves at all. It is just manufactured money, which effectively mean each bet is diluting the actual savings of real people. And if the bet goes bad, the Fed will ride to the rescue with low-cost money. But usually the bet goes well, because ordinarily the number of sources of fraud today is so HUGE, its practically impossible not to succeed.

Unless of course they get too greedy. Or the debt levels rise so high that large numbers of borrowers default. And guess where we are.

The financial system is supposed to allocate capital and take a modest skim as reward for helping society to be efficient. When they are doing this, they provide a net benefit to society because it's a win-win proposition. They are making society more efficient, and they thus earn their percentage.

However, and this is the key point: fraud provides no net benefit to society. Fraud extraction is a zero sum game. For every dollar extracted through fraud, someone in the productive society ends up losing - savings, salary, whatever. This is why fraud is bad.

(I say that leverage is zero sum because constructing money from thin air for a leveraged investment causes inflation and thus steals from savers.)

Currently, it is my opinion that the vast majority of today's highly profitable financial activity is fraud. They have gone way, way beyond their mandate of capital allocators. Because most of its activities are based on fraud, the finance industry is acting as a parasite, sucking the life blood from the rest of society. Its bad enough we have peak everything, a world population of 7 billion people, and globalization to deal with - but we also have to face these challenges while a leech is weakening us with every step we take!

As a result, when this bloated, fraud-based financial system dies, we'll have a awesome, positive chance to rip off the parasite and replace it with something more beneficial. Simply re-executing glass-steagall will do for a start. Bring back 9-3 boring banking, where banks retain the mortgage and live with the risk, and capital markets once again do their job of capital allocation -- but without the fraud so rampant today.

Same conclusion, different angle. Intrinsically, I believe that capitalism does actually allocate capital more efficiently than competitive systems. And yet, how the current system works is so wrong. And I figured out it was fraud. Fraud was the bad guy. Remove fraud, and things get a lot better.

But after re-reading your essay, fraud wasn't the whole answer either. Fraud might be the leech, but leverage is the system killer.

One other comment.

If you apply statistics incorrectly to market behavior, you get into trouble. It is possible to successfully hedge away risk if the failure of one investment is truly uncorrelated with another. Joe defaulting on his mortgage is a unique event, and won't affect Sam and the likelihood of him defaulting. Then you can apply statistics and things should work out fine. Of course, in a debt bubble or a recession, that's no longer true. The same factor that caused Joe to default will also affect the likelihood that Sam will default too. Unemployment, being underwater, herd behavior, "its better to rent" - it all correlates, completely destroying the underlying assumption. Real life trumps statistics.

This further supports your basic premise - in the real world, there are almost always hidden correlations that reveal themselves at the worst possible moment, typically at the point of maximum leverage. Thus for practical purposes, it is impossible to hedge away risk; as a result, leverage still kills.

We've seen this most recently in sovereign debt. Basel II lets banks lever to infinity on sovereign debt because it assumes sovereign debt has a zero default risk. Hmm...

So - remove fraud, remove leverage, admit risk will always exist, and the capital markets can go back to fulfill their traditional role in society of capital allocation, making us all more efficient.

But of course removing fraud and leverage removes all of the easy zero-sum profit opportunities; all that remains is the job of capital allocation. While its true that capital allocation materially contributes to society, it turns out it is also hard work. Who wants to do that when there's easy money to be made in fraud - with leverage! And that's why we have to have another crash so we can return finance to its proper - and necessary - role in society.

Contributor Michael M. explores the analogy that our financial system is in effect an aggressive cancer, and also explores the system's inherent instability:

I think the risk "hedging" can be split into two parts, first using/inventing "hedging" instruments who won't live up to their name in a major event (CDS anyone?), and second hiding risks in existing allegedly time-tested limited risk systems/instruments.
You mostly covered the first part in your article.

Some more examples for the second variant, besides lowering the down payment on house mortgages, are: Gaming VaR models (so for a 1% VaR the risk in the 99 days remains the same, but the blowup in the 1-out-of-100 event becomes much much larger), or lowering of Fractional Reserve requirements, or Sweep accounts (deposits in checking accounts get sweeped into savings accounts, i.e. are put into money market funds where the risk is a [little] bit higher, but the owner of the capital [the depositor] doesn't receive higher premiums), or student loans becoming non-dischargeable.

"So what happens when one counterparty (issuer of a hedge) somewhere in the chain runs into trouble? The entire chain collapses."

Or the accounting rules are manipulated, so the entity next in line after the collapsed one is allowed to keep their risk valued at par on the books, even though their hedge just vanished (and they are not able to get replacement hedges at an acceptable price in the current market) and the ongoing collapse freezes in a state of suspended reality - but the trouble is not undone!

The system has not blown up yet because there are still some pockets of unimpaired, really low-risk capital available to game and loot.

In effect the financial system is still perfecting its ability to game and loot, just like a cancer which, due to non-self-restrained growth and fast mutation, continuously improves its ability to elude or withstand the immune system. Until the host cannot bear the strain anymore.

How could we ever get to this point?

Too much stability. Thereby lowering reserves and safety margins more and more, until one day (maybe even without a large increase in volatility first!) a swing exceeds the safety margin. Oops. Which is exactly what Nassim Taleb is saying, but almost no one fully understands him.

This leads to my quote, which I came up with myself:

Stability breeds stupidity.

But at the same time one must remain humble of being able to overview all relevant parts of the picture... it can go on for a LOT longer than oneself can come up with a functioning game plan for, no matter how far you stretch your imaginable reality.

Which makes me go back to my "(over-)complexity" meme. I nowadays also look at The Fourth Turning through my complexity goggles... and war is still the strongest simplifier - quicker and more rigorous even than a systemic collapse!
Charles Hugh Smith: Financial Cancer: Our Financial System Is Intrinsically Fraudulent and Unstable
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Old 7th Nov 2011, 22:09
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“You say: "There are persons who lack education" and you turn to the law. But the law is not, in itself, a torch of learning which shines its light abroad. The law extends over a society where some persons have knowledge and others do not; where some citizens need to learn, and others can teach. In this matter of education, the law has only two alternatives: It can permit this transaction of teaching-and-learning to operate freely and without the use of force, or it can force human wills in this matter by taking from some of them enough to pay the teachers who are appointed by government to instruct others, without charge. But in the second case, the law commits legal plunder by violating liberty and property.”
After dinner one night with a barrister friend, I asked him why the various Acts were writen in language that was difficult to follow, sometinmes in sentences that ran for hundreds of words. His reply was "****, we can't allow a system where the man in the street could readily understand their rights!" He was being sarcastic. This man represents many, many cases pro bono and is a champion of human rights and justice issues.

One of the most evident flaws in all this process is that hardly any US citizen actually vote. Talking to man-in-the-street Americans, they quite plainly comprehend that they are being screwed over. What is happening to these people is that a state of 'quiet civil war' exists in that country and the middle class is losing. 17 % of Americans now live below the poverty line , which is set at an unrealistic (low) $22,000 USD for families. The fastest growing segment of those now living in poverty are white university graduates with dependants. The problem is that the major political parties have been bought out in the process.

Since the bailout, the US banks have continued on their merry way with wasteful consummer lending. However, instead of lending for real estate, the financing for cars is now the flavour of the month. Motor vehicles are available for 0% down and drive away. As the advert. says "All you need to leave behind at the showroom is your signature"
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Old 7th Nov 2011, 22:50
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?rel=0" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen>

something interesting about the control of population in which there seems to be a grass roots awakening, unfortunately through hardship.

Must See Videos: Roger Waters Supports Occupy Movement | COLLAPSENET

MODS - Dont know why youtube link always posts video twice!
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Old 7th Nov 2011, 23:05
  #196 (permalink)  
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Jibba, the best way to post youtube is to use the [YOUTUBE] [/YOUTUBE tag, the trick is to NOT put the whole youtube url, but just the unique video identifier, in the video you posted the identifer is SUu55mtg39E (look closeley at the whole URL) without any of the http (it assumes that for YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.) & without =embedded_player or other cruft.

so, putting it together for your video: [YOUTUBE]SUu55mtg39E[/YOUTUBE <--- missing final ] for demo, giving.

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Old 8th Nov 2011, 00:21
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Jeebus! a 2 hr long youtube video! i dont know where ill find the money to pay for the electricity to run my computer that long!
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Old 8th Nov 2011, 02:52
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Does anyone know where the billions of dollars are?

BH
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Old 8th Nov 2011, 05:55
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Perceptive question Blackhand.

The billions are paper obligations - they don't exist as real wealth. You are the one that will help convert this "paper obligation" to "real wealth" (goods and services) as part of your (taxpayer) obligation! Think of it as a continuous obligation to pay the vast majority of the fruits of your labour for the rest of your lifetime to private institutions controlled by a very small number of people - the true elites. This obligation extends to those that haven't even been born yet - the future population.

The cunning part is that the billions are owed in the future, backstopped by the taxpayer to the private banks. These obligations are to be enforced by the government by force if necessary. How will they extract the money? Via direct taxes and the hidden tax of inflation. The government will simply take the obligations onto its books and make the elite whole, just as they have and are doing in the US/Europe & Japan. Almost all the populations of those regions have been converted to debt serfs.


I've shown this chart before. Reserves is another name for assets, of which the bulk is likely to be bonds and derivatives of bonds, AKA debt obligations. What this chart shows is that since 1971, reserves have begun to accumulate at a much greater rate than real production. As of the 2006, there was roughly 10:1 reserves to real production.

Therefore, the vast majority of these obligations cannot be "realised" into real goods & services, ie spent. This is why creditors (obligations owners) will accept "haircuts", because, in the end, if they end up with 20% of the value of the bonds, they are still owed more than the ALL the global production of goods and services.


So, in answer to your question, where are the billions? They are sitting as paper obligations in the financial system. Ultimately the workers & citizens backstop this unpayable debt. This backstop consists of government enforced labour expropriated by tax (direct or inflation). This constant debt obligation is simply a method to control & milk the populus, shifting real wealth up the pyramid to the elites.


Here's an interesting article on the "fear" that the US government may actually pay off its debt, and the consequence.

What If We Paid Off The Debt? The Secret Government Report

Planet Money has obtained a secret government report outlining what once looked like a potential crisis: The possibility that the U.S. government might pay off its entire debt.

It sounds ridiculous today. But not so long ago, the prospect of a debt-free U.S. was seen as a real possibility with the potential to upset the global financial system.

We recently obtained the report through a Freedom of Information Act Request. You can read the whole thing here. (It's a PDF.)

The report is called "Life After Debt". It was written in the year 2000, when the U.S. was running a budget surplus, taking in more than it was spending every year. Economists were projecting that the entire national debt could be paid off by 2012




This was seen in many ways as good thing. But it also posed risks. If the U.S. paid off its debt there would be no more U.S. Treasury bonds in the world.

"It was a huge issue ... for not just the U.S. economy, but the global economy," says Diane Lim Rogers, an economist in the Clinton administration.


The U.S. borrows money by selling bonds. So the end of debt would mean the end of Treasury bonds.

But the U.S. has been issuing bonds for so long, and the bonds are seen as so safe, that much of the world has come to depend on them. The U.S. Treasury bond is a pillar of the global economy.

Banks buy hundreds of billions of dollars' worth, because they're a safe place to park money.

Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate on U.S. treasury bonds.

The Federal Reserve — our central bank — buys and sells Treasury bonds all the time, in an effort to keep the economy on track.

If Treasury bonds disappeared, would the world unravel? Would it adjust somehow?

"I probably thought about this piece easily 16 hours a day, and it took me a long time to even start writing it," says Jason Seligman, the economist who wrote most of the report.

It was a strange, science-fictiony question.

"What would it look like to be in a United States without debt?" Seligman says. "What would life look like in those United States?"

Yes, there were ways for the world to adjust. But certain things got really tricky.

For example: What do you do with the money that comes out of people's paychecks for Social Security? Now, a lot of that money gets invested in –- you guessed it — Treasury bonds. If there are no Treasury bonds, what do you invest it in? Stocks? Which stocks? Who picks?

In the end, Seligman concluded it was a good idea to pay down the debt — but not to pay it off entirely.

"There's such a thing as too much debt," he says. "But also such a thing, perhaps, as too little."

The copy of Life After Debt we obtained reads "PRELIMINARY AND CLOSE HOLD OFFICIAL USE ONLY."

The report was intended to be included in the official "Economic Report of the President" — the final one of the Clinton administration. But in the end, people above Jason Seligman decided it was too speculative, too politically sensitive. So it was never published.

The danger that we would pay off our debt by 2012 has clearly passed. There are plenty of Treasury bonds around these days. U.S. debt held by the public is now over $10 trillion.

Read More: How The Surplus Turned Into A Deficit, In One Chart
NPR: What If We Paid Off The Debt? The Secret Government Report
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Old 8th Nov 2011, 06:37
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Fascinating episode well worth listening too. Who would have though that being debt free would come with so many problems!!
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