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Qantas post August 24

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Old 15th Jul 2011, 06:42
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Originally Posted by handbrake
Romulus,
Your posts are often wise, however don't underestimate the general fear of flying that many paying passengers experience covertly or overtly.

To compare the off-shoring of other brands is a fair and wise view, however the QF brand of safety is instilled in many(Rainmain included!).

Whilst many of us have come to terms with a reduction in quality as manufacturing goes OS, many accept the concept of a dodgy pilot/airline is harder to 'suck up' at 30 000 feet.
All of which is pretty fair until someone asks - which is the best airline to fly with?

If the answer comes back as Singapore, Cathay, Emirates or whatever then by definition people don't overly care about Qantas or outsourced engineering.

Most Australians have an attachment to Qantas as a result of domestic activity, your choices (in steroetypes) are:

1: Qantas: Good, top shelf brand, sign of status etc
2: Virgin: Young hip upstart, not really business but pretty funky
3: Tiger: Air Bogan

Now they're not really fair stereotypes but I reckon you'd get about 80% agreeement with them.

As for overseas quality declining are you sure we even care about that? Where are most BMWs made? Louis Vuitton handbags?

Yet people still pay a premium for them.

Qantas' problems will skyrocket once people stop feeling attached to them as a brand, but do not make the mistake fo thinking that becasue customers are attached to the brand they are attached to keeping engineers or pilots in Australia.
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 06:49
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Originally Posted by TG
I disagree Romulus, the Qantas brand is far different from other brands. For what ever reason Qantas is joined at the hip to this country, not many could imagine one without the other. When Dixon tried to flog it to Macbank, Australians were shaken out of their apathy, and a mate of mine a Liberal MP, said never had he and his colleagues ever received so many emails of protest.
Fair enough to disagree but are you so sure of your position?

The macbank deal only fell over because ONE fund manager thought he could "game" the opportunity and make a killing. It wasn't done for nationalistic reasons, the takeover was blocked by a bloke who thought he could harness the (then) magic of private equity by simply riding on the coat tails of the takeover and see the value of his holding increase massively. Same bloke is kicking himself now give the value of his fund's stake.

As for teh little people complaining - what did they or the politicians actually do?

Bugger all.

Originally Posted by TG
Recently he said the same on the live cattle trade came close, but the sale of Qantas blitzed them all. Therefore the call for a union cause of Keeping Qantas Australian definitely has merit. It goes without saying at the moment, that this country is going thru a major upheaval, people are nervous, insecure, and uneasy, thus showing in the retail industry, to wrest away their national carrier towards Asia could be the last straw for many, regardless if they might bag it, it represents this country, and the security of this country, and it would be a brave man not to recognise it.
A major upheaval?

I'd say Greece and Ireland are going through a major upheaval, we burped at worst.

If Qantas gets floged the same old line will be trotted out - it's private enterprise and shareholders can do with their shares as they will. We'll all still trot down to the airport and see the same old stuff, guys in hi vis vests on the tarmac, maybe a few more Asian hosties, the lady or bloke who is wearing the pilot unifrom that says goodby wight be less caucasian but that's about it.
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 06:49
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This afternoon Reuters is reported on Business Spectator:

"Reuters

Budget airline JetStar plans to invest $500 million at its Singapore hub, partly by adding seven aircraft, its chief executive Bruce Buchanan said.

The carrier said in a statement that it will put five new Airbus A320 single aisle aircraft and an additional 2 wide-body Airbus A330 planes at the Singapore operation to support its expansion. "
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 08:02
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So .... $500m ......given BB has proven to be a little dodgy with the numbers, is that counting the full value of the leased a/c ? - and how is the spend being funded - even over a 5 year term that's a bit hit on cash flow.

There's a bit of a pattern emerging here with these JQ announcements - can't help thinking that there's a bit of staging underway for 24 Aug.

Also there's a sudden distinct lack of mention of the 787's .... I suspect we are about to see them in the Sthrn China reincarnation of QF

AT
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 08:32
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Romulus, the fact that the general public or the Govt. did nothing, was because they could not not interfere in the running of a private company, But Dixon knew, it was passed to him, but he was only interested in taking the money. But that is irrelevant, the fact that is got up their noses is what the unions need to know. Any help they can get is paramount to their cause. Don't underestimate the general public. Your comments are about Greece and Ireland, we don't live there, we live here, and to our standards, for many of us, as the polls show, the country is fast going up the spout. At this point Ireland and Greece are not our problem.
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 09:29
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Just wait to the end of this month when AKL - SFO is announced !!
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 10:55
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AKL-SFO, yes please! I'll book for several visits immediately - to avoid AA.
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 11:28
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So how much has QF pumped into Jetstar Asia? Does Jetstar Asia give an acceptable return on capital?
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 11:44
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The carrier suffered revenue losses of nearly 100 million Australian dollars (US$107 million) in the past six months because of natural disasters and events including the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan
Yes The J model is kicking butt
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 11:56
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Yes.... So of course we then come to this gem from Buchanan...

He told Reuters that the company is aiming to maintain a 20 percent share of the Asia Pacific low-cost carrier market and might need to have as much as 400 aircraft by 2020
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 12:21
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There are no AKL - SFO plans.
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 12:21
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Their Dreaming.......

Can someone explain to me just how Jetstar is propping up Qantas reporting losses like that?
That figure is rather alarming and this is in the region they are going to focus on making big bucks for the entire group huh

Maybe they just leave them an open chequbook to access Mainlines money in the bank whenever they want haha
Creative accounting going on thats for sure
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 12:23
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On the asx website, the latest Qantas 'change of directors interest' notice indicates that 255,000 share options for AJ have lapsed due to not meeting performance hurdles.

Anyone have any info or guesses about this?
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 13:33
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Be worth about 255 dollars in a couple of months,will make it easier to get over
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Old 15th Jul 2011, 21:58
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UPDATE 1-JetStar to invest $500 mln in Singapore hub, add aircraft
  • To add five Airbus A320s, two A330s to Singapore operation
  • Says deliveries of Boeing 787 Dreamliner on schedule
  • Says may need 400 aircraft by 2020 to maintain market position (Adds details from interview, quotes)
By Harry Suhartono

SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Budget airline JetStar, a unit of Australia's Qantas , plans to invest $500 million in its Singapore hub, mostly by adding seven Airbus aircraft, Chief Executive Bruce Buchanan said.

JetStar will add five new Airbus A320 single-aisle aircraft and an additional two wide-body Airbus A330 planes at the Singapore operation to support its expansion, the carrier said in a statement.

Competition among Asian budget carriers is heating up with Singapore Airlines , the world's second largest airline by market value, planning to set up a long-haul budget carrier by mid next year.

JetStar competes with Singapore's Tiger Airways , which is grounded by authorities in Australia due to safety issues, as well as Malaysia's AirAsia and some smaller Southeast Asian budget carriers.

Buchanan said the grounding of Tiger only makes a "small positive impact" on JetStar's operations due to the small size of Tiger's Australian domestic service.

He told Reuters that the company is aiming to maintain a 20 percent share of the Asia Pacific low-cost carrier market and might need to have as much as 400 aircraft by 2020.

"The total (fleet size of) the low-cost carrier market (in Asia-Pacific) is about 450 aircraft today and we envisage it to grow to in excess of 2,000 aircraft by the end of the decade," he said on the sideline of a media briefing in Singapore.

"To maintain 20 percent market share by 2020, we need about 400 aircraft," Buchanan added without elaborating when the carrier will start making orders of those aircraft.

JetStar, which operates nearly 80 aircraft in the region, mostly single-aisle A320s, has about an additional fifty A320s and around the same number of Boeing 787 Dreamliners in order.

Buchanan said the delivery of its 787 Dreamliners is still on schedule with the first aircraft coming into service by the end of 2012.

JetStar is in talks with Airbus over the A320neo programme, he said, but declined to say when the company will order the aircraft.

Last month, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said the Australian flag carrier is looking at the Airbus A320neo for a potential purchase for JetStar.

Strong economic growth, a rising middle class and the lack of reliable land and sea transport infrastructure have been fueling the growth of budget airlines in Asia, which recently overtook North America as the world's biggest passenger air travel market.

Asian budget carriers including AirAsia and India's IndiGo have been buying aircraft aggressively.

AirAsia has drawn up plans to buy an extra 100 Airbus A320neo jets, potentially taking its record-breaking order to 300, a source with direct knowledge of ongoing discussions had told Reuters last week. (Editing by Vinu Pilakkott)
Reuters

This is interesting because it basically lay out the entire strategy.

He told Reuters that the company is aiming to maintain a 20 percent share of the Asia Pacific low-cost carrier market and might need to have as much as 400 aircraft by 2020.

"The total (fleet size of) the low-cost carrier market (in Asia-Pacific) is about 450 aircraft today and we envisage it to grow to in excess of 2,000 aircraft by the end of the decade," he said on the sideline of a media briefing in Singapore.

"To maintain 20 percent market share by 2020, we need about 400 aircraft," Buchanan added without elaborating when the carrier will start making orders of those aircraft.
This is the crux of the issue, the cat is out of the bag. Lets look at the maths, to go from 450 to 2000 aircraft in 8 years, is two doubling's or a Compound Annual Growth Rate, using the rule of 72 of about 18% - an exponential increase.

I suspect this is the reason that interest in mainline is diminished, the prospect of this sort of growth must have the exec's salivating.

However, as Sunfish, TIMA9X and others point out, there are "cultural" issues involved, I will leave that to those that know more about it than me.
My question is one of resources, where is the oil going to come from to drive this rapid growth? The only way air travel in the Asian region can grow at these rates is if the underlying energy consumption in those economies also increases at a similar rate, or increased rate. We have already pasted peak conventional oil. We don't have an energy problem, we have an oil problem.

So, if conventional liquid fuel production has peaked, and Asia is to increase its consumption at such a rate, where is the is the oil going to come from? By implication in order for Asia to consume more, other regions must consume less, significantly less. This would imply massive demand destruction in the "West". If that is the case, who is going to buy the "stuff" that Asia produces to enable it's economy to grow.

In short, the growth rate estimates, in all likelihood will outstrip the resources available. The LCC may work at $100 a barrel, does it work at $200 or $300? If on the other hand oil goes back to $30, its because the global economy is in depression & demand won't exist.

The days of cheap energy, and the exponential growth rates it enabled are behind us, any model that relies on it is fighting the laws of thermodynamics and will not succeed.

Bruce, here are a few resources for you.

Export Land Model presentation



The most important video you will ever see.


Study those carefully, and think about your strategy.
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Old 16th Jul 2011, 01:26
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Food for thought

From Half-Year Report ended 31 December 2010

Segment Performance
Mr Joyce said all operating segments of the Qantas Group were profitable for the first half-year ended 31 December 2010,delivering significant EBIT growth.

“Qantas Airlines produced a strong revenue performance across both its international and domestic operations, with underlaying EBIT of $165 million up 175 per cent on prior year first half.” Mr Joyce said.




So in the space of half a year how is Qantas International now making losses for the group when it was reported that they were making strong revenue both International and Domestic reported 31/12/2010?

Is this the most blatant lie whichever way it is ?

Also going from the past reports since Jetstars inception. In those years to date they have made a profit of approximatley $594 million.

But wait for it the first year was a loss so in actual fact Jetstar havent been profitable every year since they started. Bonus points for whoever can name the person who said that they have been profitable every year since startup

So where is the 500 million going to come from that is being thrown around this forum when its taken 8 years to get that much out of the group?
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Old 16th Jul 2011, 02:20
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Why is everyone worried about August 24th?

It's already here, and has been for awhile, It just seems most in QF have not realised that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually an oncoming train.

The train has slowly been gathering momentum thru the tunnel, and will exit the tunnel on August 24, are you going to stay around for the inevitable train wreck, or are you going to get off while you can?

Last edited by 7378FE; 16th Jul 2011 at 02:21. Reason: Speeling & Gramma
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Old 16th Jul 2011, 02:42
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The battle for Changi and more

I didn't enjoy reading this very much but it makes the point that there is a much bigger picture. He also has some sharp things to say about Dick Smith's logical fallacies in an earlier post.

Changi battleground for Singapore Airlines, Qantas, Jetstar | Plane Talking
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Old 16th Jul 2011, 04:25
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Originally Posted by TG
Romulus, the fact that the general public or the Govt. did nothing, was because they could not not interfere in the running of a private company, But Dixon knew, it was passed to him, but he was only interested in taking the money. But that is irrelevant, the fact that is got up their noses is what the unions need to know. Any help they can get is paramount to their cause. Don't underestimate the general public. Your comments are about Greece and Ireland, we don't live there, we live here, and to our standards, for many of us, as the polls show, the country is fast going up the spout. At this point Ireland and Greece are not our problem.
Possibly TG, possibly.

The general population here knows they have it pretty good, that's why the threats of elsewhere and carbon taxes etc are so unnerving to people. People who have it bad wouldn't give a stuff about a carbon tax, they have bigger things to worry about. And that's pretty much my point, there is no real reason for the public to give a stuff about Qantas, there's no real emotional connection any longer (beyond the self interest of wanting a full service flight rather than a LCC) and there's no reason to expect people who are nervous about their own position to worry about yours.

Unless you get a clear message that resonates.
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Old 17th Jul 2011, 05:09
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A bit off topic but maybe somewhat relevant, watching the Wallabies playing Samoa on channel 9 - Plenty of Jetstar advertisements but none for Qantas. Only Great Crusade I see is of the red rat.
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