QF shares hit $2.00, discuss
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Very disappointing for shareholders
Ouch. Close 1.06 down 6c on a day when the market goes up. 
The thread will soon need to be renamed "QF shares hit $1.00, discuss".
The thread will soon need to be renamed "QF shares hit $1.00, discuss".
Last edited by BoundaryLayer; 7th Jun 2012 at 06:38. Reason: Price was wrong
short flights long nights
For every "sell" there is a "buy"..so just who is buying the stock..that is the clue to all of this
Yes , thats correct but at the moment the sellers are outweighing the buyers and only when that stops will the price go back up again. Now if the clowns that run Qantas have to raise capital at about say 65 cents then there will be another leg down. Not good.
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I guess there is one positive that could come from AJ sinking the QF group,,,, he's unlikely to ever work in aviation again.
The silver lining is there, you just have to look for it.
The silver lining is there, you just have to look for it.
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@david1300...
"The internet may have been a boon for the Qantas budget operation, Jetstar, but it has obliterated many advantages once enjoyed by the international division."
To my mind that is exactly the point of last years industrial 'inaction'.
Other legacy carriers have seen the potential for this sort of self immolation and have divested themselves of their start up LCC's.
"The internet may have been a boon for the Qantas budget operation, Jetstar, but it has obliterated many advantages once enjoyed by the international division."
To my mind that is exactly the point of last years industrial 'inaction'.
Other legacy carriers have seen the potential for this sort of self immolation and have divested themselves of their start up LCC's.
Last edited by UPPERLOBE; 14th Jun 2012 at 00:13.
Can I suggest that the difference is the cost structure!
Wrt cost structure, Qantas mainline would love to compete on a level playing field, ie not being burdened by some of Jetstar's Direct Operating Costs. The average load factor for QF International has been over 80% during the last 12 months. That load factor normally results in a healthy profit but management advised the ASX that International was making a massive loss - it doesn't add up and the only thing that I can put it down to is: creative accounting to achieve an industrial outcome. We are at war with our management because we can see what is really happening and we know what lies they are telling the media, ASX, shareholders, staff, customers, etc.
The only way Qantas will survive is a total change of management - Boston Bruce has gone, just Joyce and Clifford to go next.
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Forget approaching $2.00 or $1.00 what happens if the share price hits $0.00? Is it actually possible? Does it mean you can buy the joint for free?
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I guess there is one positive that could come from AJ sinking the QF group,,,, he's unlikely to ever work in aviation again.
From Ben Sandilands blog tonight
What does the devastating drop in Qantas shares really tell us about the calibre and candour of its management and board?
The most immediate thing it tells us is the those charged with leading this company neglected their duty of continuous disclosure, and expect us to go on believing fairy tales.
Every other major airline affected by the common issues of soaring fuel charges and adverse effects of eurozone instability, and yield erosion, reported those consequences in relation to their profit outlook in a timely manner.
Not 25 days before the end of the financial year. And not accompanied by lame excuses about how the management only become aware of how serious the situation had become in recent days.
It is obvious that investors have lost confidence in this management, and their late disclosure excuses either mean management wasn’t actually paying any attention to the fundamentals, or for some undisclosed reason, decided not to share them with its owners.
The most immediate thing it tells us is the those charged with leading this company neglected their duty of continuous disclosure, and expect us to go on believing fairy tales.
Every other major airline affected by the common issues of soaring fuel charges and adverse effects of eurozone instability, and yield erosion, reported those consequences in relation to their profit outlook in a timely manner.
Not 25 days before the end of the financial year. And not accompanied by lame excuses about how the management only become aware of how serious the situation had become in recent days.
It is obvious that investors have lost confidence in this management, and their late disclosure excuses either mean management wasn’t actually paying any attention to the fundamentals, or for some undisclosed reason, decided not to share them with its owners.
I think Ben has got it in a nutshell.. Clifford must be a little nervous tonight about his choice of CEO...
isn't he?
Last edited by TIMA9X; 7th Jun 2012 at 08:49.
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Thank God Joyce and Clifford can't fly. Imagine those two egos during a dark and stormy night with active CBs over the airport,x-wind on the limit with a wet short runway and the antiskid fails? Yeah no worries we can land cause we know what we are doing,we are the best at this flying thing and besides we don't have the fuel to divert. Whats the whoop whoop pull up noise. Windshear false warning lets land. Are you sweating yet Alan? You should be.
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I wish he was sweating but the truth is he couldn't give a ****e because of the millions he will collect on the way out.
If only it could be stopped, but hell will freeze over first unless the Board develop some balls which is highly unlikely given they are in on the gig.
If only it could be stopped, but hell will freeze over first unless the Board develop some balls which is highly unlikely given they are in on the gig.
What I don't like about it all is that they have been allowed to dictate the general narrative going around that its all the various union's collective faults.
Nothing is heard of the failure to procure the right aircraft for the right routes causing the particular segment that would be using such aircraft to be suffering at the bottom line due to the high fuel price. The best weapon (B777) is nowhere to be seen, plenty of B747s still though.
Neither is anything heard about 2 successive regimes, GD and now AJ failing to bridge the gap of mistrust. 10 years worth of total mistrust and disengagement between management and the workforce is not something to be rewarded.
Not to mention the passing over of the best man for the job who subsequently has gone on to kick many goals at the competition.
Nothing is heard of the failure to procure the right aircraft for the right routes causing the particular segment that would be using such aircraft to be suffering at the bottom line due to the high fuel price. The best weapon (B777) is nowhere to be seen, plenty of B747s still though.
Neither is anything heard about 2 successive regimes, GD and now AJ failing to bridge the gap of mistrust. 10 years worth of total mistrust and disengagement between management and the workforce is not something to be rewarded.
Not to mention the passing over of the best man for the job who subsequently has gone on to kick many goals at the competition.
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The company makes bugger all profit and therefore can't pay a dividend. If you ask me the share price should never have got near the $6.00 mark. On paper it should never have gone above about $3.50 and where it is now is a function of its ability to make a return on equity.
It's at a point where the company is making next to nothing but has good cash reserves and a manageable debt level but if it's let go to the point where it eats the cash you can kiss it goodbye! Im starting wonder if they'll start selling off internal services like catering and then contract them back? I suppose they could actually sell off Jetstar and let mainline rot. Not sure if the Qantas sale act can stop that because it's not part of the business as it was when the act was produced.
SN
It's at a point where the company is making next to nothing but has good cash reserves and a manageable debt level but if it's let go to the point where it eats the cash you can kiss it goodbye! Im starting wonder if they'll start selling off internal services like catering and then contract them back? I suppose they could actually sell off Jetstar and let mainline rot. Not sure if the Qantas sale act can stop that because it's not part of the business as it was when the act was produced.
SN
600 lb,
Great post, that's how it seems to be.
Regards Oz2
Great post, that's how it seems to be.
Regards Oz2
Qantas - Board And Management Have To Go.
On 6 May 2007 the private APA bid for Qantas, at $5.60 per share, failed as shareholders refused to sell. The general concensus among small investors apparently being that there was more value inherent in the company than the Board supported bid implied.
As at the market close on 7 June 2012, Five years, one month and one day after the failure of the APA bid, Qantas shares closed at $1.06. What are the possible explanations for the consistent destruction of shareholder value that has occurred since October 26 2007 when the share price reached $6.01?
I fail to understand how the mere invocation of "market forces" could possibly be responsible. Australian labor was expensive in 2007, as was jet fuel. The Australian dollar was over 90 cents for most of 2007. There was ferocious international competition. Virgin Australia had been in existence since 2000 and was chewing into Qantas market share. Jetstar had been formed in 2003. The Australian mining boom had yet to occur.
Given that catastrophic economic conditions cannot be claimed as the reason for the apocalyptic fall in the value of Qantas share price only leaves Three other possible reasons; Government action or political turmoil is out; war, pestilence and civil commotion ditto. Unless I am mistaken, this leaves us with only one possible conclusion - the actions, or inactions, of the Board and Management of the airline are responsible for its current results, as implied also in the payment of bonuses to senior management.
Now before making a final pronoucement we need to formally jettison one possible explanation for the current situation - that it a desired result. That fanciful line of argument follows from the conspiracy theory that the original APA bidders still wish to acquire the airline and have conspired with its management to drive its price down. I do not believe this is the case.
That leaves us with the unfortunate final deduction to be made: If the Board and managers are not knaves, then can we be forgiven for thinking that they must be fools? A consistent pattern of stupid management decisions, lovingly catalogued on the pages of Pprune, appears to suggest that this might be the case.
As at the market close on 7 June 2012, Five years, one month and one day after the failure of the APA bid, Qantas shares closed at $1.06. What are the possible explanations for the consistent destruction of shareholder value that has occurred since October 26 2007 when the share price reached $6.01?
I fail to understand how the mere invocation of "market forces" could possibly be responsible. Australian labor was expensive in 2007, as was jet fuel. The Australian dollar was over 90 cents for most of 2007. There was ferocious international competition. Virgin Australia had been in existence since 2000 and was chewing into Qantas market share. Jetstar had been formed in 2003. The Australian mining boom had yet to occur.
Given that catastrophic economic conditions cannot be claimed as the reason for the apocalyptic fall in the value of Qantas share price only leaves Three other possible reasons; Government action or political turmoil is out; war, pestilence and civil commotion ditto. Unless I am mistaken, this leaves us with only one possible conclusion - the actions, or inactions, of the Board and Management of the airline are responsible for its current results, as implied also in the payment of bonuses to senior management.
Now before making a final pronoucement we need to formally jettison one possible explanation for the current situation - that it a desired result. That fanciful line of argument follows from the conspiracy theory that the original APA bidders still wish to acquire the airline and have conspired with its management to drive its price down. I do not believe this is the case.
That leaves us with the unfortunate final deduction to be made: If the Board and managers are not knaves, then can we be forgiven for thinking that they must be fools? A consistent pattern of stupid management decisions, lovingly catalogued on the pages of Pprune, appears to suggest that this might be the case.
Last edited by Sunfish; 7th Jun 2012 at 21:41.
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For those with a few spare dollars.....
I heard a summary of Warren Buffet's investment thinking a while back. Quite a while. On the back of it I bought some Apple and BHP stock and did well.
I recall that he said that a good target for buying in and making speculative returns would be characterised by the following (excuse my version of his words but I think it's not too bad):
Looking at the above and considering the idea of a new EBA, the 747-8 and/or 777 (thats just for long-haul) and a new CEO: maybe when the shares dip below 95 cents and there's any sign of a clean sweep of Board and CEO it could be time to invest.
Just a thought.
I heard a summary of Warren Buffet's investment thinking a while back. Quite a while. On the back of it I bought some Apple and BHP stock and did well.
I recall that he said that a good target for buying in and making speculative returns would be characterised by the following (excuse my version of his words but I think it's not too bad):
- A believable brand
- An oversold share price as a result of poor but replaced/about to be replaced management
- Enough cash to rebuild
- Available external resources to get the structure right
- An employee group willing to work flexibly and efficiently to support the rebuild
- Either a new CEO or the availability of such a person
Looking at the above and considering the idea of a new EBA, the 747-8 and/or 777 (thats just for long-haul) and a new CEO: maybe when the shares dip below 95 cents and there's any sign of a clean sweep of Board and CEO it could be time to invest.
Just a thought.