Qantas In 5 Years Time?
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Qantas In 5 Years Time?
What will the Qantas Group look like in 5 years time?
Jetstar will have grown significantly servicing most of Asia, New Zealand and Honolulu
Qantas Mainline will fly to LAX SFO JFK SIN FRA JNB BKK LHR HKG EZE and will run a mix of A380s and aging 744s.
The 787s have still not yet arrived
Jetstar will continue to cannibalize mainline domestically
Wages across the group will have been reduced significantly after most of the 13 EBAs have been renegotiated.
Alan Joyce will still be CEO.
Any thoughts?
Jetstar will have grown significantly servicing most of Asia, New Zealand and Honolulu
Qantas Mainline will fly to LAX SFO JFK SIN FRA JNB BKK LHR HKG EZE and will run a mix of A380s and aging 744s.
The 787s have still not yet arrived
Jetstar will continue to cannibalize mainline domestically
Wages across the group will have been reduced significantly after most of the 13 EBAs have been renegotiated.
Alan Joyce will still be CEO.
Any thoughts?
Last edited by blade.runner; 19th Aug 2009 at 03:52.
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QF used to do quite detailed Five-year plans. I doubt they're bothering this year.
I'll be fearles and demonstrate why I never excercised a position of power.
Years 1 & 2 essentially profitless with no dividends, but no major shocks.
Years 3 & 4 increasing profits, but nowhere near adequate for future growth.
Year 5 Good profit, healthy dividend.
Last official statement on 787 was
I doubt they'll meet that.
Don't agree that JQ is detrimental to the Group. The market will decide relative size of Mainline and Jetstar.
Real wages will definitely have reduced because we still have eighteen months of increasing national unemployment in the pipeline. On the upside I think QF staff numbers will increase because capacity will start growing this year.
I think Joyce will still be in place, not sure about Clifford though.
One thing to watch with Jetstar is the growth of the Asian off-shoots. They could provide an earlier lift to profits.
I'll be fearles and demonstrate why I never excercised a position of power.
Years 1 & 2 essentially profitless with no dividends, but no major shocks.
Years 3 & 4 increasing profits, but nowhere near adequate for future growth.
Year 5 Good profit, healthy dividend.
Last official statement on 787 was
* Qantas Group firm orders reduce from 65 to 50 aircraft, comprising 35 B787-9s and 15 B787-8s;
* the Group's first 15 aircraft - B787-9s for Jetstar's international operations - delivered from mid-2013, around three years later than planned. Jetstar was to take delivery of 15 smaller B787-8s in mid-2010;
* 15 B787-8s follow over the 12 months from the fourth quarter of 2014 for Qantas' Australian domestic operations and to retire the remaining Qantas B767-300 fleet;
* the Group's first 15 aircraft - B787-9s for Jetstar's international operations - delivered from mid-2013, around three years later than planned. Jetstar was to take delivery of 15 smaller B787-8s in mid-2010;
* 15 B787-8s follow over the 12 months from the fourth quarter of 2014 for Qantas' Australian domestic operations and to retire the remaining Qantas B767-300 fleet;
Don't agree that JQ is detrimental to the Group. The market will decide relative size of Mainline and Jetstar.
Real wages will definitely have reduced because we still have eighteen months of increasing national unemployment in the pipeline. On the upside I think QF staff numbers will increase because capacity will start growing this year.
I think Joyce will still be in place, not sure about Clifford though.
One thing to watch with Jetstar is the growth of the Asian off-shoots. They could provide an earlier lift to profits.
Last edited by Wod; 19th Aug 2009 at 06:37. Reason: tidy
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Originally Posted by 34R
Who knows what will happen, but one thing you can count on is that it will resemble nothing even remotely close to anything pontificated here.
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Ha yeah lets not start with the 777 green goblin and yes i would love QF to stay in the Domestic world , worst mistake not getting them!!! and Mr Dixon is now agreeing that QF should of got them
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One simple question please.
What happens to the LCC business model when World oil prices start racing back up to over $100 a barrel? One only has to read some of the reports by oil futures traders and they predict it could climb to over $200 a barrel, what happens to every facet of the transport industry then?
What happens to the LCC business model when World oil prices start racing back up to over $100 a barrel? One only has to read some of the reports by oil futures traders and they predict it could climb to over $200 a barrel, what happens to every facet of the transport industry then?
One simple question please.
What happens to the LCC business model when World oil prices start racing back up to over $100 a barrel? One only has to read some of the reports by oil futures traders and they predict it could climb to over $200 a barrel, what happens to every facet of the transport industry then?
What happens to the LCC business model when World oil prices start racing back up to over $100 a barrel? One only has to read some of the reports by oil futures traders and they predict it could climb to over $200 a barrel, what happens to every facet of the transport industry then?
Or H20 powered engines will prevail, cold fusion will magically appear for power generation and we will learn that we have been exploring the galaxy for decades with field generating engines invented by the NAZI's in WW2.
One can only dream.
Qantas in 5 years time?
Jetstar pilots all members of AIPA (or a united Australian Pilots Association), flying A320s domestically on QF B737 terms and conditions.
Jetstar and Qantas pilots flying B787s/A330s on the same terms and conditions.
All it will take is a bit of unity and some intestinal fortitude from JQ pilots to have some self belief and begin valuing their skills.
I know I'm f*cking dreaming but that's what 8 pints and some serious jet lag will do to you.
Jetstar pilots all members of AIPA (or a united Australian Pilots Association), flying A320s domestically on QF B737 terms and conditions.
Jetstar and Qantas pilots flying B787s/A330s on the same terms and conditions.
All it will take is a bit of unity and some intestinal fortitude from JQ pilots to have some self belief and begin valuing their skills.
I know I'm f*cking dreaming but that's what 8 pints and some serious jet lag will do to you.
QANTAS have difficulty retaining pilots due to deteriorating terms and conditions as the airline battles domestically against low costs and internationally against middle eastern and asian full service.
Difficult position as its overheads are too high to compete against low costs on price and its full service competitors CX/SQ/EK etc are very strong. Middle east/Asian hubs offer better connections, highly attractive fares and excellent service.
Job is seen as a good place to get an endorsement and 1000hrs on type before heading overseas. Direct entry captains hired from CX/EK, older pilots well cashed up who want to return home and fly for a few years before retiring. Lifestyle appeals to some who simply want to remain in Australia and accept the reduced terms and conditions as the price of living at home. Pilot recruitment can't be as picky as before. Length and amount of bond is a consideration for new joiners.
A,B,C,D scale pilot pay, 3 star hotels, other benefits reduced.
Reduced network, main trunk routes only domestically. Internationally retreats back to the traditionally well performing routes.
New aircraft acquired, essential to compete with the competition. Geriatric 767s and 744s retired. Smaller long range twins used to cater for reduced loads.
Industrial relations problems, everyone realises some thing must be done, as long as it doesn't involve any sacrifice on their part.
Jetstar grows its network as QFs shrinks. QF finds its place in the market, smaller, leaner and hopefully profitable.
Difficult position as its overheads are too high to compete against low costs on price and its full service competitors CX/SQ/EK etc are very strong. Middle east/Asian hubs offer better connections, highly attractive fares and excellent service.
Job is seen as a good place to get an endorsement and 1000hrs on type before heading overseas. Direct entry captains hired from CX/EK, older pilots well cashed up who want to return home and fly for a few years before retiring. Lifestyle appeals to some who simply want to remain in Australia and accept the reduced terms and conditions as the price of living at home. Pilot recruitment can't be as picky as before. Length and amount of bond is a consideration for new joiners.
A,B,C,D scale pilot pay, 3 star hotels, other benefits reduced.
Reduced network, main trunk routes only domestically. Internationally retreats back to the traditionally well performing routes.
New aircraft acquired, essential to compete with the competition. Geriatric 767s and 744s retired. Smaller long range twins used to cater for reduced loads.
Industrial relations problems, everyone realises some thing must be done, as long as it doesn't involve any sacrifice on their part.
Jetstar grows its network as QFs shrinks. QF finds its place in the market, smaller, leaner and hopefully profitable.
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As the non clairvoyant type, I suspect that anybody’s ability to see where Qantas will be in 5 years is quite blurred at best. Nevertheless, articles like:
Qantas mainline losses touch AUD30 million a month.
Qantas’ mainline flying business has gone from a AUD1.23 billion profit before tax to a AUD77 million loss in the space of 12 months. Were it not for a AUD126 million profit before tax from Jetstar (up 23.5%) and AUD310 million profit from its frequent flyer business (up 142%), the Group would have been deeply in the red.
And more of the same is expected. With Qantas mainline losing up to AUD30 million a month; the airline still faces a toxic combination of “high levels of volatility in the economic outlook, industry capacity, passenger demand, fuel prices and exchange rates continue”, making it “not possible to provide any profit guidance.”
Don’t fill me with optimism and led me to expect that the future will anything other than what most of us would like it to be.
Qantas mainline losses touch AUD30 million a month.
Qantas’ mainline flying business has gone from a AUD1.23 billion profit before tax to a AUD77 million loss in the space of 12 months. Were it not for a AUD126 million profit before tax from Jetstar (up 23.5%) and AUD310 million profit from its frequent flyer business (up 142%), the Group would have been deeply in the red.
And more of the same is expected. With Qantas mainline losing up to AUD30 million a month; the airline still faces a toxic combination of “high levels of volatility in the economic outlook, industry capacity, passenger demand, fuel prices and exchange rates continue”, making it “not possible to provide any profit guidance.”
Don’t fill me with optimism and led me to expect that the future will anything other than what most of us would like it to be.
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On its face, Boom is on the money when he points out:
Nonetheless, keeping the airline's Investment Grade credit rating and the debit/equity ratio under 50%, won't be easy when the Company starts taking delivery of its many new aircraft, if it keeps burning cash at a rate $30M a month.
Without the $1.5B cost reduction Q Future is supposed to deliver, expect both the debit/equity ratio and the Investment Grade credit rating will go south - along with many other things we cherish in Qantas.
Is still a long way to go to get out of the woods. Don't sign up for a new car just yet.
$3billion in cash and the $500million capital raising two months ago..[means] financially QF is in great shape
Without the $1.5B cost reduction Q Future is supposed to deliver, expect both the debit/equity ratio and the Investment Grade credit rating will go south - along with many other things we cherish in Qantas.
Is still a long way to go to get out of the woods. Don't sign up for a new car just yet.
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Transition Layer
Oh how I wish you were right.
Sadly, you will never meet a more disinterested apathetic bunch as the average JQ Australia pilot.
Unfortunately, to go from B1900's to A320's on $140k/p.a. and a ****e contract (voting it up twice!) while many of the more senior ones live in the city of thier choice is enough for many of them.
And still they say in the crew rooms "I've got my command in MEL/SYD/SEQ so I'm alright Jack. Why should I join AIPA?"
Those who have spent time overseas shake their heads.
Maybe a few more shaftings from BB might change some minds.
Heres hoping. For all our sakes.
Oh how I wish you were right.
Sadly, you will never meet a more disinterested apathetic bunch as the average JQ Australia pilot.
Unfortunately, to go from B1900's to A320's on $140k/p.a. and a ****e contract (voting it up twice!) while many of the more senior ones live in the city of thier choice is enough for many of them.
And still they say in the crew rooms "I've got my command in MEL/SYD/SEQ so I'm alright Jack. Why should I join AIPA?"
Those who have spent time overseas shake their heads.
Maybe a few more shaftings from BB might change some minds.
Heres hoping. For all our sakes.
short flights long nights
Probably a stupid question....but....QF 767s must be around 25 years old. Why have the not replaced them with A330s, even as a temp measure?
Why are they all getting sent to Jetstar?
Standing by for incoming
Why are they all getting sent to Jetstar?
Standing by for incoming
Because Jetstar makes all the money for the QF "Group"....duh
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Hang on while I find me anorak... here tis,
Qantas 767 birthdays.
OGA Sep 1988 through to OGV Jun 2000
ZXA Feb 1990 through to ZXG Oct 1994
Not quite 25 years, but not all pups either.
Qantas 767 birthdays.
OGA Sep 1988 through to OGV Jun 2000
ZXA Feb 1990 through to ZXG Oct 1994
Not quite 25 years, but not all pups either.