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Big economic problems in aviation

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Old 24th Oct 2008, 11:20
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Dick,

Give me all your millions of dollars. I will promise to spend it all and kick start MY economy at least.

Honest.
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Old 24th Oct 2008, 11:27
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at least there is consistency in GA. The last 2 recessions and now this (potential) one have had the same aircraft around. PA31's C206/210 and Metros. same aircraft will still be flying here in GA in the next recession I think!!!
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Old 24th Oct 2008, 20:53
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GA can be also assessed by the number of pilots.

I have graphed licences back to 1996.

The general trend is down, down, down - although ATPL rises slightly (thus the rest drop even faster).

But, lo - add in RA Aus and the trend is effectively flat - no change.

Therefore part of the matter is a market shift due to emergence of RA Aus.

But then, have a think about the loss of the RPT duopoly and the arrival of the cheap carriers and SY-ML for $90 or less. How far does one get in even a GA single for $90?

GA also - being on the private side 'discretionary' income always suffers in a recession (lagging by a year or two due to those committed to finishing their licence).

Someone said earlier this is all about differing opinions - the statistics give me the opinion that GA as we know it would always have declined due to the changing market forces. Add in the lack of incentive to purchase new aircraft in the over-regulated environment and decline is guaranteed.

Open up competition in RFFS etc - worked well in banking and telecommunications didn't it - much better service and pricing these days
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Old 24th Oct 2008, 21:32
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Captain Sand Dune, please don't tar me with your misguided high levels of anxiety. Despite our massive continent Australia is airspace poor because we are regulation rich. Loosen up the airspace and things will flow much better. It seems to me all Dick is trying to say is that we could do more to make it easier to fly.

Through extensive personal experience, I am intimately aware with what goes on in our military restricted areas and have an in depth understanding of how other more crowded countries manage airspace more efficiently.

Maybe you need to get out more? It's not all about RPT, airways and air traffic control...

BTW, I would whoop with joy if I were allowed to be put in a position to see a 4 ship of F18s whistle past my wing, although I am also savvy enough to know I probably wouldn't see all 4 if they were flying a proper tactical formation. My occasional callsign means F111s sometimes do whistle past the wing. It's awlays good to see my tax money being well spent. I certainly blew enough of it off during my service years...

On oxygen, it's not just America and the Rockies. Pretty well everywhere other than Australia allows flight up to 12,500 feet without oxy. The "but we don't have to because our terrain is flat" argument misses the reduced cost benefit point being made. For simple flight above 10K the resulting hypoxic symptoms are easily manageable. Let's face it, some people live their entire lives up mountains above 10K without oxygen enhancement. All most GA folk will be doing is just sitting there. Those with anxiety about it probably shouldn't fly because a high proportion of glider types are out there in thermals every summer week end, and you can be sure not all of them have taken oxy along.
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Old 24th Oct 2008, 21:45
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One More

Try the thread "CASA Integrity" for a clue why Dick is pushing base joins - the one thing missing from that thread is who (other than Dick) supports the value of the procedure

DBTW

You forgot to mention that the DEF radar may not always be to a standard suitable for RPT separation (ESL an example at present over parts of Bass Strait I believe).
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 07:52
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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In response to WizofAUS

In isolation Dick does have merit in this instance.

The problem is that people, like you, will not let an opprotunity go by to play the man rather than the ball.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but perhaps, some real research should be conducted into the cause of the economic downtown rather than repeating verbatim what you hear on BBC world.

IT IS GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE IN THE MARKETS THAT CAUSED THIS! not deregulated thinking .When Jimmy Carter (Thats right! nothing to do with Reagan) made it illegal for banks to discriminate when lending on the basis of a persons ability to repay a loan. Yep, give money to pepole who cant afford it, way to go socialists. Why do you think Freddie Mac and Fannie May were set up? Do some research.

Correct, CASA and ASA did not have anything to do with the current financial disaster. However, government regulation directly distorts the finanacial viability of any industry.The current global economic situation is a perfect example of this, again, do some research.

And why has government divestment in certain areas had a negative impact?

Simple, lack of competition. The industry costs are so high that is not competitive with other modes of transport. It discourages entrants into the market. Australia should be a world leader in aviation rather than a backwater.

Further,

1. The sell off of Australian Airports was the extension of a policy from the 1950's in which the government had already determined that it could not afford to directly maintain the infrastructure. If the community considered this piece of infrastructure so vital, do you really think that these airfields would be under threat? Perhaps a bit of proactivity, such as the efforts to save Essendon Airport ,would highlight the value.

2. ATC and ASA. Again, if you had privatised class D towers, would this free up directly employed ASA staff for other areas? Would this allow controllers who exited the industry to re enter on their terms?

Perhaps an industry group, other than the Civil Air, that can assist in bringing to bear long term pressure might actually effect some change, with respect to ATC. Hang on, thats right, the pilot group is too fickle to unite in anything other than a whinge session in the crew room.

How does the US health care system, Ansett or any other of those poor arguments relate to the RFF? Answer, it doesnt. Straw man argument.

"But the major point is" that reform is not only necessary but pivotal in the survival of the Australian aviation industry. Whether you agree with Dick or not, the reform process stalled after he left, so perhaps you should ensure the accuracy of you remarks.

"If nothing else" your post highlights the vailidity of an effective flight and duty schedule.

I dont always agree with Dick, but it dissapointing to see ill informed and inaccurate drivel served up everytime he makes a comment.
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 08:23
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You might want to research ASAs foray into operating Class D towers in the States.

Rumour has it that they forgot to factor in a % locality allowance for the controllers, and are actually making a loss on the deal. Might be worth asking a question.

In none of the Annual Reports to I see the usual crowing about the money they are making on this deal, in fact the lack of self congratulation leads me to believe the rumours.
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 08:57
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As the industry starts to downturn further, with more and more people out of work, I would imagine that all of the people in the Department (under Mike Taylor), people within the ATSB and within CASA will be smiling. Remember the “Yes, Minister” episode on the hospital without any patients? What could be better for the Department, the regulator and the investigator to hardly have anyone flying?
Spot-on Dick about "Yes Minister"!

And the ward of the particular hospital that we presently seem to be stuck in is the psychiatric one...............where the loonies are well-and-truly in charge!
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 11:14
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry to burst your bubble, but perhaps, some real research should be conducted into the cause of the economic downtown rather than repeating verbatim what you hear on BBC world.
Maralinga, perhaps you shouldn't quote personal opinion and right-wing conspiracy theories as fact:-

Urban myths are always so larded with nonsense that deconstructing them is a multi-stage endeavor. Let's begin with the truth about the CRA: When it was enacted, many banks were restricting their lending to creditors without risk. That's like a health insurance company only insuring people who never get sick. It's a great way to make a profit but it's no way to grow an economy. The CRA pushed banks to expand the envelope of their lending but never beyond an actuarially justifiable risk. True, it represented an intrusion into the market which a conservative might understandably decry, but the notion that it put a gun to the heads of banks and told them to pull the trigger is ridiculous.

To give credibility to this story you have to believe that for 31 years American lenders have diligently and without protest been on a government mandated death march. They knuckled under and did what they were told even through 12 years of Reagan-Bush, 12 years of a Republican-controlled Congress and eight years of Bush 2. They just kept on handing out money to deadbeats until they ran out. They never lobbied, never complained.
Source:- John Moore

CRA loans have actually managed to turn a consistent profit:
http://www.traigerlaw.com/.../traige...udy_1-7-08.pdf
And banks participating in CRA had a higher capital requirement, as legislated by the act, than banks that did not participate.
Additionally, Fannie and Freddie's involvement in subprime loans occurred due to the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act - completely outside the purview of the CRA:
So get YOUR facts straight!!

Trying to blame an administration from 33 years ago for the present debacle is pulling a very long bow. The US has had Republican white houses for 20 out of the last 28 years, so blaming the liberals is clutching at straws.

As to Dick, the simple fact is that ANY excuse, be it a crash, a near miss or a totally unrelated financial crisis is an excuse for him to bleat on about his own, largely discredited agenda.

The US health system is an example of how an essential service can be denied to many people who need it, even in an affluent country, when it is largely left to market forces with insufficient government investment in infrastructure and regulation, just as is happening to air services to remote communities. Ansett was an example of how a large commercial enterprise could close overnight, as could a commercially run RFF or ATC service. This was clear in my first post, so it's you doing the straw man here.
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 11:24
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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I think you need to get the message Dick.

Get as far away from professional aviation with your Private views as the FARthest CUmulus, Dick.

In other words, get your hand off it, Dick.

Your days as being a HANDS ON Dick are past you.

Let the professionals HANDLE it now Dick.

Just LET GO of it Dick.

You will feel much better after you LIMP away from it, Dick.
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 11:40
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Wiz

"It is revealing, therefore, to re-read an article from the conservative City Journal in 2000 predicting problems for the banking sector from the Clinton administration's resurrection of Jimmy Carter's 1977 Community Reinvestment Act, which appears to have been the major single factor in the origins of American high-risk sub-prime loans. Under Bill Clinton: banks were required to provide loans on an affirmative action basis to poor inner-urban ghettoes; the scheme's intentions were to help low-income earners buy homes and revive decaying neighbourhoods; much of the money was funnelled through a nationwide network of left-wing community activist groups; government regulators were appointed to measure banks' performance and ensure they reversed their previous racially discriminatory policies of declining to lend money to high-risk clients; by 2000, banks had committed nearly $1 trillion for loans to low-income ethnic and inner-urban groups; at the time, the chairman of the US Senate banking committee, Republican senator Phil Gramm, denounced the program as a vast extortion scheme against the nation's banks. "

Source, The Australian 30/09/08


Guess we will have to agree to disagree
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 12:49
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Silence the Anti-Christ Please

Dick Smith is The General Aviation Anti-Christ, whom at every economic slump preys on the fear of the dumb to twist arms of government. I cannot remember any good lessons from Australian GA, it's an abomination, just let it die, quicker is better.

1. Expand all controlled airspace to include all appropriate DME Arrivals.

2. Delete all Class E airspace.

3. Cancel all 30m Runway Approvals for RPT jets. If the local council wants a jet service, build a decent runway first. How can India and Indonesia present a respectable commercial airports when Australia cannot? Ballina for an OZ example? What a joke! The reason is Indonesia and India do not have Dicks from GA and local coucils pulling strings and pushing empty barrows.

4. Cancel all pavement concessions for the above reasons. The user should pay right Dick? Make the users build an airport before professional pilots are rostered to transport the stupid bastards on holidays.

But first of all, please prohibit the sale of AVGAS within 50nm of any Australian city. Australia has room for GA, way out-back! You have the money, please just take your propellors and AVGAS away from 99% of air travelling Australians.

And please remain silent in the future Dick Smith, allow professional aviators decide what is best for commercial aviation. You are The professional aviation joke.

Black Stain
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 14:52
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Yeah let the professionals run the show. Just like the professional finaciers and bankers have run the economy into the ground these past few years. Also while your at it get those professional APF leaders back that got you all to resign on mass a decade ago. That was real smart and professional that was, even the grave diggers union wouldn't be so stupid.
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 16:25
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Mara,

Happy to do so, and to post in a less combative tone!!

The "Jimmy and Bill Did it" theory just doesn't stack up. CRA loans were, on the whole, very successful, and less than one in four of the current subprime default loans came from banks who subscribed to CRA (and even fewer of those were ACTUAL CRA loans). Perhaps do some general research on stats and facts, not just opinions of people with similar political views.

The free marketeers managed to manufacture this mess all by themselves (and most are now admitting as much) largely because the money they could make in the good times meant they could walk away very rich men when it all fell apart. It wasn't true capitalism, it was fraud on a huge scale.

More regulation could have ensured that TRUE capitalism (the market doing what's best for the market) triumphed over CORPORATISM (the market doing what enriches those RUNNING the market).

I'm a centrist, not a socialist. Socialism doesn't work because it runs against human nature. Unchecked capitalism doesn't work because it runs WITH human nature all too well!!
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Old 25th Oct 2008, 20:46
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Blacky

A delightful coat-tug; knowing you know that removing GA 50 Nm from the cities would mean an ultimate drought of CPL/ATPL - one merely watches to see who will take your bait

Mara & Wiz

In a way you touch on a point of interest. If one notes the failure trend of the USA car industry to the Japanese, manufacturing industry to the Chinese, the banking industry to greed, and so on - their leadership of "world's best practice" is questionable. The parallel is that their NAS is an amalgam of different issues to Australia - constitutional rights, massive economies of scale due a much higher population/pilot versus area ratio, radar coverage, and so on. I find it difficult to believe we must blindly follow the USA NAS out here.

Perhaps, however, this should be called the "Post Mortem" thread. None of the issues Dick raises are new - where was everyone when they occurred?
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Old 26th Oct 2008, 00:44
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe it is too simplistic a view but I always get somewhat suspicous when previously government owned ESSENTIAL services get privatised. Privatisation means that the service has to be, or become, financially viable (read make someone money) otherwise no private investor would be interested. The simple fact is that it is not always possible for ESSENTIAL services, especially in REMOTE AREAS to be a profitable business!

Thank God we still have some Government money being spent to subsidise medical services and even air services and many other services especially in remote areas.

What do we pay taxes for people?!! If the Government can't use our taxes to equitably provide services then why do we bother at all? Take toll roads and the aversion that people rightly have developed to private companies milking their little investment for all that they possibly can for a service that should be provided out of the Government budget. Where does it end? Soon you will be paying the coppers to come out and visit your house after a robbery from some thieving kid who will yell "I know my rights and you can't touch me!" Where does it end?!

Can anyone really honestly say that we are nationally 'better off' with airports being in private hands? What about costs? Is aviation any cheaper these days because of privatisation? It seems to be a slippery road though. Now that it has started one wonders if it will ever end...
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Old 26th Oct 2008, 01:37
  #37 (permalink)  
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Black Stain

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One hopes that is the Gulf of Carpentaria...

What about those of us who have propellors but don't use Avgas?
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Old 26th Oct 2008, 02:16
  #38 (permalink)  

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Privatisation of natural monopolies is always a disaster from the point of view of the users of that natural monopoly. Entities become more efficient ONLY when there is real competition and that can never exist in a natural monopoly. It barely exists in the private sector. Real competition, despite the corporate rhetoric, is anathema to the corporate world hence we see the M&A mania of the last years as bigger companies buy out smaller companies to increase 'market share'. 60 years ago, as an example, there were hundreds of oil companies today there are, in effect, only 4 or 5.

The reason privatisation has become such a mantra among the disingenuous idiots that run our country is because they have allowed, indeed enabled, the Public Service get so large that it takes most of our taxes to run it and provide for their incredibly generous perks. An example is public service defined benefit super schemes...a system that was judged too expensive for the private sector 30 years ago. Our taxes go increasingly to keep the political class in the lifestyle they have become accustomed to...to feed their sense of entitlement.

Dick you're part of the problem not the solution...I wish you would go away.

Take it to its logical conclusion...Mac bank owning and running all the essential infrastructure...airports, harbours, roads, rail, water, power generation..and make no mistake that is Mac Bank's fantasy.
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Old 26th Oct 2008, 04:03
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Originally Posted by Chimbu chuckles
An example is public service defined benefit super schemes...a system that was judged too expensive for the private sector 30 years ago.
Actually Chuckles, most public service defined benefit schemes closed their doors to new entrants in the early 1990s, eg DFRDB => MSBS for the ADF.....

But the thrust of your post I agree with. Vale Hoxton .... cheerio GA in Canberra .... heavens above, we live in a country with the crappiest roads, the least rail, great distances, GA should be thriving here.

And Black Stain, that includes people using their own aircraft to go from place to place, without having to rely on airline timetables and Jetstar 'choice' How can you possibly object to someone flying their own 182 from Camden to Port Macquarie, for example? What are they supposed to put in their aircraft's tanks? Vodka? Ya clown.

Last edited by Like This - Do That; 26th Oct 2008 at 04:04. Reason: spelling error
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Old 26th Oct 2008, 04:43
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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It's called S A R C A S M, for those without the humour faculty......
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