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Qantas to Decline as Jetstar Soars

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Qantas to Decline as Jetstar Soars

Old 31st Jul 2008, 21:27
  #1 (permalink)  
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Qantas to Decline as Jetstar Soars

Why Peter Harbison at The Australian says that 'there will be a major generational shift and Jetstar will become much bigger domestically and internationally than Qantas', isn't really answered in his newspaper article: Joyce destined to see Qantas decline as Jetstar soars.

To read what he has to say go to: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24107675-23349,00.html?from=public_rss

Pruners wanting to run a book on how many B787's Qantas will get should start taking bets before the changing of the Qantas Guard in November.
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Old 31st Jul 2008, 23:22
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I'll give anyone odds of 10000-1 that they'll see any of em..
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Old 31st Jul 2008, 23:29
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Wow, I'll take that bet.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 00:13
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Interesting short summary of the aviation business in the last decades, but when it comes to what he's alluding to in the headline, just a couple of very strong yet totally unsubstantiated statements:

Joyce will undoubtedly be seen as the Qantas chief who allows Qantas to subside even as Jetstar grows.
That is an unavoidable role for any leader in this environment.
If this is a plug to arouse interest for his services, it's not a very good one I'm afraid, the crumbs are a bit meager, and the tone too self-assured bordering on patronising, which is OTT even for a consultant if he's trying to scare airline managers into buying his analyses, however, it might just work if the characterisations of this type of manager that abound on PPRuNe are not too far off the mark
Old 1st Aug 2008, 00:26
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Harbison has been nothing but a Dixon/Qantas groupie for a long time.
It makes you wonder as to the impartiality or credence of anything that he or The Centre writes.

PS: I wonder what Qantas share holders will make of this revelation.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 01:54
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Thumbs down

The attacks coincided with the collapse of Ansett, which, although it theoretically delivered Qantas a free meal in the profitable Australian domestic market, became a major challenge in itself.

Picking up much of Ansett's 35 per cent or so market share overnight was nigh impossible.

In the vacuum, the previously faltering low-cost Virgin Blue took the opportunity to expand quickly, catching Qantas off guard.
Harbison knows Jack Sh!t. Following Ansett's collapse, the Federal Government leant on Dixon and said that Qantas would not be allowed to have more than 70% share of the domestic market. Even though Qantas had the cash to put the screws on Virgin, they had to limit capacity to allow DJ to grow. This was most obvious during the SARS crisis as Qantas had reduced their international services and thus had aircraft & crew available tothrow at the domestic market. They didn't do this because of the instructions from the PM's department. Brett Godfrey can't claim to be a great CEO when he was gifted 30% of the market.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 05:04
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A remarkable set of co-incidences.

Mick Toller told the national press club that casa had done everything right, and the proof was that Ansett had been nominated as the worlds second best airline, ahead of
Not long after that he shut Ansett down because he said they were not safe.
One of the favourites (a white knight) turns up with a new airline to take up the slack.
Qantas are told to let the newcomer get 30% of the market.
And we thought we had a free market!!!!
We thought aviation regulation was only for safety.!!!
Silly us.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 07:28
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Why listen to Wannabes like Harbison?

What's he actually done ever except talk and pretend to be somebody?
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 07:30
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Spot on Al.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 08:15
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As a wise bloke wrote on Qrewroom ( )...

Those who can, do. Those who haven't and can't, commentate.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 10:08
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Muff Hunter

You are a tool...I'll take those odds thanks very much. Do you really think Jetstar can fill 65 B787s with bogans like yourself going on their trip of a lifetime to Phuket or a bunch of surfers going to Bali to get a wave at Uluwatu....you're dreaming.
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 11:39
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Muff Yes Please I am willing to give you $100 for that bet, PM me and let's get it in writing, hang on that means I would win 1 million! Wow, I seriously doubt if you have anything to do with Jetstar you have or will ever have access to that kind of money , damn! I thought I was on a winner for a minute
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Old 1st Aug 2008, 23:00
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Transition Layer and AOA,

geez looks like I have hit a raw nerve.....relax, it was supposed to be a joke....

Now back to watching league and drinking my bundy in my moccos and flanny!!
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Old 2nd Aug 2008, 04:02
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Could someone please tell me why the Qantas Growth Vehicle (J*) had 2 A320's parked in the general aviation parking near 25 threshold in Sydney.

Seeings it's a weekend I thought these two aircraft could be out generating some revenue rather then being parked all day?

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Old 2nd Aug 2008, 09:25
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What's he (Harbison) actually done ever except talk and pretend to be somebody?
Ask that question of anyone who worked for Compass One, or get your hands on a copy of "Operation Sewn Up". And if you find an ex-Compass One man, stand well back before asking the question.
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Old 2nd Aug 2008, 11:30
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"A remarkable set of co-incidences"

Yep, all of a sudden the industry is headed for de unionization only made possible by the demise of one half of the highly unionised duopoly.

But its all just a coincidence, isnt it.
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Old 3rd Aug 2008, 03:35
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I have to say (regarding the first post, about Qantas decreasing, and Jetstar increasing) "I Told You So" (to alot of people) it has been a known thing to happen for around 10 months, maybe longer

From what I was told it is just to get people over to a cheaper airline so the wages arent so high... then later on everything will go back to "normal" apparantly....
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Old 5th Aug 2008, 07:58
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And just how is that going to be achieved now that the more draconian aspects of WorkChoices are gone? Operational redundancy,gone!
Is Joyce going to ask "pretty please with sugar on top?"
Then there is the Qantas Sale Act, have a read of it, many smart legal minds believe "it" can't be done as the Act now stands.
The Qantas unions are aware of the importance of this act and are lobbying.
So once again just how is Joyce going to progress the Dixon Plan further?
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Old 5th Aug 2008, 08:02
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From what I am saying, it is only working off of Dixions reign, it was not factoring the new CEO
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Old 8th Aug 2008, 03:43
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Another nail in the coffin for the Dixon Plan?

From the Australian:

Solicitor prosecuted in phoenix trading suit

Michael Pelly | August 08, 2008

THE nation's corporate watchdog has launched proceedings against a solicitor accused of helping eight financially distressed companies revive their fortunes through "phoenix trading", and warned that lawyers and other advisers are on their radar.
Tim Somerville, of Sydney firm Somerville and Co, allegedly advised the directors how they could transfer assets to a new company controlled by the same directors, at negligible cost.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission says the vendor company was put into liquidation, after its assets were sold for a token fee and the business continued trading under the name of the new company.
This week, ASIC succeeded in joining Mr Somerville with all eight directors, meaning all the cases will be heard as one.
Justice Robert Austin of the NSW Supreme Court said "close case management" could overcome any difficulties and suggested the defendants could agree to a "lead cross-examiner". The court could also intervene to "prevent repetition of lines".
ASIC said it was the first time it had taken action against a solicitor for phoenix activity and that it presented a rare prosecution over legal advice.
"Phoenix activity is a significant issue and ASIC has broadened its focus in relation to misconduct to include not only company directors but also others who are involved in, or help facilitate, such transactions," said ASIC director of enforcement Jan Redfern.
She said ASIC was seeking orders against Mr Somerville and the eight directors of companies engaged in business ranging from furniture and fine art to removals and storage.
Last year, Greg Gaunt, Peter Beekink and Hersch Majteles were all finance company directors and partners of the law firm Phillips Fox when fined between $20,000 and $40,000 over a prospectus, which sought to raise funds for the construction of the Blackrock Caravan Park in South Hedland, Western Australia.
In agreeing to one trial in the Somerville case, Justice Austin said there were common questions of law and fact for all the transactions.
"In each case the (Somerville and Co) letter of advice said that the company might be insolvent and identified the risk of liability for insolvent trading," he said.
"It attributed a significant value to the assets of the company's business, and identified the disadvantages of closing the business down or appointing an administrator, and the difficulties of selling the business on the open market.
"Then the letter suggested that the only viable alternative open to the director was to transfer the business to a newly formed, solvent company, which he would control.
"Since there would be no cash in the new company to pay for the full value of the assets, the letter proposed that the old company would hold shares in the new company carrying the right to receive all the dividends paid by the new company until an amount equal to the value of the business was received.
"That amount, when eventually paid, would be available to pay the creditors of the old company."
He said the agreements "also provided that the vendor would terminate the employment of all current employees with effect from the settlement date.
"The purchaser would offer the employees re-employment on the same terms and conditions, the vendor remaining responsible for all wages and holiday pay up to the settlement date," he said.
Mr Somerville continues to practise at his North Sydney firm, pending the trial.
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