Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: mel
Posts: 20
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
What will the VB share price be when finally QANTAS decides to sue for the use of its paint scheme.
Just saw a billboard for V Aus and it looked like the big Q....Not to mention the VB rip-off contrast of the big Q..
There could be a reason for it though..
Just saw a billboard for V Aus and it looked like the big Q....Not to mention the VB rip-off contrast of the big Q..
There could be a reason for it though..
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 113
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
What happened to Virgin Values???
From what I've read here and the opinions of mates inside VB the past strength of its once great esprit d'corp and positive relationship with management has gone. That kills productivity. Well known fact - just ask South West (USA) and their legendary President / CEO Herb Kelleher.
...and that is exactly why Virgin is really in the position that its in.
Many of the founding staff, who were the most passionate, and productive, have turned their backs on the place and what is left are a legion of micro-managers who have no interest in Virgin values, strategy or entreprenurial teamworking.
When BG wakes up and starts to demand the 'Virgin' being put back into managerial performance then maybe there will be a long term future.
...and that is exactly why Virgin is really in the position that its in.
Many of the founding staff, who were the most passionate, and productive, have turned their backs on the place and what is left are a legion of micro-managers who have no interest in Virgin values, strategy or entreprenurial teamworking.
When BG wakes up and starts to demand the 'Virgin' being put back into managerial performance then maybe there will be a long term future.
If Vb is such a good product then why hasn't the market spoken and bought all the good valu shares at $0.85.
Scratch and sniff.....................starting to smell pretty bad!
Scratch and sniff.....................starting to smell pretty bad!
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 590
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
With the VB share price below 50 cents (after floating at close to $2.40) how low can this share price plummett before the inevitable?
I spoke recently with an analyst with Standard and Poors who by the way give companies their credit ratings worldwide.
He stated that unless VB cuts something like 35% of its fleet, concentrates on primary trunk routes primarily with a higher yield and/or raise their prices by up to 30% they wont survive.
Also suggested was the idea of dumping the B777's to the USA which would incur losses for a few years that VB just cant afford.
Those preliminary figures were apparently costed at a jet fuel price of US$95 per barrel and the losses to the USA could skyrocket even further with jet fuel at around US$160 per barrel!
To make matters worse Mr Godfrey recently purchased a large number of shares at around 75 cents per share.
His vote of confidence didnt seem to impress anyone else.
Any takers?
I spoke recently with an analyst with Standard and Poors who by the way give companies their credit ratings worldwide.
He stated that unless VB cuts something like 35% of its fleet, concentrates on primary trunk routes primarily with a higher yield and/or raise their prices by up to 30% they wont survive.
Also suggested was the idea of dumping the B777's to the USA which would incur losses for a few years that VB just cant afford.
Those preliminary figures were apparently costed at a jet fuel price of US$95 per barrel and the losses to the USA could skyrocket even further with jet fuel at around US$160 per barrel!
To make matters worse Mr Godfrey recently purchased a large number of shares at around 75 cents per share.
His vote of confidence didnt seem to impress anyone else.
Any takers?
Or is it just another one of lifes speed bumps?
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Tallong NSW
Posts: 280
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I know a lot more about finance than piloting and this is such a dumb question to ask about a company which has so few shares available for trading that it ought to be delisted from the ASX.
These sort of bleatings about VBA have been going on since they were listed. Every single analyst projection about the company, for which one of my family flies, has proven dead wrong or turned out to be a Qantas inspired wet dream.
A year from now there will still be a Virgin Blue. The flights will still be chokka. It might even make money. It will have at least half a billion left in cash. Get over it.
These sort of bleatings about VBA have been going on since they were listed. Every single analyst projection about the company, for which one of my family flies, has proven dead wrong or turned out to be a Qantas inspired wet dream.
A year from now there will still be a Virgin Blue. The flights will still be chokka. It might even make money. It will have at least half a billion left in cash. Get over it.
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: I'veBeenEverywhereMan
Posts: 198
Likes: 0
Received 10 Likes
on
5 Posts
I agree, with such a small proportion of the company listed the share price doesn't effect the company directly as much as others, like Qantas. The fact is they do have quitea large cash reserve. There loads are as good as any other carrier. Like ALL airlines high fuel will mean lower profits. However overall the business model is sound. The EMB will help manage low yielding routes. They have most of the terminal/gates locked up in most capitals. Like all airlines they Are deferring planes where they have too. They will be around in a year and more. Low share prices like for all us (as in supers etc) only are bad if you need to sell now. Which most people wont.
A bigger question is how long tiger will keep going. Yes singapore backed however losing nearly $1 mil a week as I have it on very good word even they wont back something like that forever. I know many of the tiger guys moving to jetstar recently are very relieved and happy to get out now.
A bigger question is how long tiger will keep going. Yes singapore backed however losing nearly $1 mil a week as I have it on very good word even they wont back something like that forever. I know many of the tiger guys moving to jetstar recently are very relieved and happy to get out now.
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 73
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
He stated that unless VB cuts something like 35% of its fleet, concentrates on primary trunk routes primarily with a higher yield and/or raise their prices by up to 30% they wont survive.
Half of these clowns wouldnt know if their rear ends were on fire.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Somewhere
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A little off topic there Silversleuth but in answer to your comment about the Tiger pilots, I've heard that they only moved for personal reasons. They didn't want to leave, but Jet* offered them the base of their choice. Something Tiger cannot do at the moment.
The other thing I heard is that they are not making as much money because of the cost of fuel, not as you say
.
Have a nice day
The other thing I heard is that they are not making as much money because of the cost of fuel, not as you say
losing nearly $1 mil a week
Have a nice day
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Dog Box
Posts: 243
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This would be the same standards and poors that gave most of the credit and finance companyies in the US AAA ratings just before the Credit Crunch? They deserve to be in jail!
Silversleuth
".....losing $1m per week, I have it on very good word....."
FROM WHERE MATE, do you have it on very good word?? Since people inside the company get told nothing, cannot find out anything, including where the next base will be, how the hell would you know??!!
Nice try mate, but very transparent.
".....losing $1m per week, I have it on very good word....."
FROM WHERE MATE, do you have it on very good word?? Since people inside the company get told nothing, cannot find out anything, including where the next base will be, how the hell would you know??!!
Nice try mate, but very transparent.
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 144
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AA and United
I wouldn't have believed it as I'm moving there at the end of the year (US), but AA will cut 7000 jobs by the end of the year and United have binned 750 pilots. Yes there will still be an AA and United, but what will it mean for those working for them.
Why then would VB be any different?
I fear the good times might be over for this industry. I hope I'm wrong.
American Airlines to cut 7,000 jobs - Times Online
950 pilots at United Airlines to lose their jobs in layoffs - USATODAY.com
Why then would VB be any different?
I fear the good times might be over for this industry. I hope I'm wrong.
American Airlines to cut 7,000 jobs - Times Online
950 pilots at United Airlines to lose their jobs in layoffs - USATODAY.com
Why then would VB be any different?
There is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between what the share market values the shares at and whether the company is profitable. Many of the rising stars of the share market disappear in a blaze of (in)glory.
FMG shares were going ballistic before one shovel of iron ore had been exported. The share market deals in perceptions and clearly people are worried about VB. As they are worried about QF also.
The VB share price (50c today) is certainly taking a battering but THIS HAS NO BEARING on the short to medium term viability of the company.
Those old enough to remember the stock market "crash" of 1987 will know that the media were fortelling the end of the world as we knew it. It rapidly became apparent that the sharemarket and real world economy are very much disconnected.
VB continue to pack aircraft with us, the great unwashed and so long as costs remain less than incomes then all will be fine.
As to whether their shares are a good investment...remember that for every seller getting out at 50 cents, someone is buying in because they thing it is a good buy...perhaps undervalued. What is break up valuation anyway?
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 172
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Guys,
Regarding that 1mill TT loss, well that might be TR, but not TT. TT are doing much better than TR, mainly cause TR has long and horrible flights, not 1hour lengths etc....
Shelly starts at TT next week, so mabye they are heading for the better
And yes, SQ wont keep funding Tiger if they keep recording loses, abit like QF with JQAsia. Its been 4years before $5mill profitability is announced, so god help us whats next
Regarding that 1mill TT loss, well that might be TR, but not TT. TT are doing much better than TR, mainly cause TR has long and horrible flights, not 1hour lengths etc....
Shelly starts at TT next week, so mabye they are heading for the better
And yes, SQ wont keep funding Tiger if they keep recording loses, abit like QF with JQAsia. Its been 4years before $5mill profitability is announced, so god help us whats next
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: An old flying boat station on Moreton Bay
Age: 84
Posts: 292
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It'll get worse before it gets better