Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
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The Shift of 61% Equity in One Transaction at a Given Point in Time
Some points that I have pondered since the announcement yesterday as an observer only (in an unaffected or preconceived fashion- and I stand to be corrected on any of them):
Ex the Toll announcement to the Market-
Link here: TOLL ASX Announcement.14.07.08
The Share Distribution Date is 22 August 08 - so I assume that is the date of effective title transfer and that they become "Trade-able" as at 10:00 AEST on the opening of the market?????
Ex: The Courier Mail article today-
Link here:15.07.08 Toll Holdings to offload nearly all its Virgin shares | The Courier-Mail
The Toll holding is 62.7% or 648,000,000 shares (acquired as part of the Patrick takeover) of which they are going to retain 1.7% or 11,000,000 shares as a strategic holding, leaving some 637,000,000 shares (61% distributed to Toll shareholders 1 for 1 as a "Dividend") to be effectively pumped into the current market at 10:00 AEST on Friday the 22nd of August.
(all figures above ex CM article- I haven't done the research)
Not that I'm not saying that there is not someone out there preparing to do a strategic snatch and grab on the stock/airline- or players currently assembling a position (post the announcement) in the lead up to this distribution.
Given the demographic of the current shareholders of Toll receiving this "Dividend"- which will include Institutions, Professional/Experienced traders and Broking Houses.
What is the capacity/appetite of the market in these current times to absorb that volume of an aviation stock, and what net effect will that have on the price?????
Or what will the commitment/fortitude of these new stockholders be to ride out the current Aviation Cycle???????
For Toll having had a "professional adviser" work on disposing of their holding for some time- they have paid a dividend in the form of an airline to their current holders- would they not just book the difference between the holding value in the books and the dividend as a book loss going forward????, and get on with life.
Ex the Toll announcement to the Market-
Link here: TOLL ASX Announcement.14.07.08
The Share Distribution Date is 22 August 08 - so I assume that is the date of effective title transfer and that they become "Trade-able" as at 10:00 AEST on the opening of the market?????
Ex: The Courier Mail article today-
Link here:15.07.08 Toll Holdings to offload nearly all its Virgin shares | The Courier-Mail
The Toll holding is 62.7% or 648,000,000 shares (acquired as part of the Patrick takeover) of which they are going to retain 1.7% or 11,000,000 shares as a strategic holding, leaving some 637,000,000 shares (61% distributed to Toll shareholders 1 for 1 as a "Dividend") to be effectively pumped into the current market at 10:00 AEST on Friday the 22nd of August.
(all figures above ex CM article- I haven't done the research)
Not that I'm not saying that there is not someone out there preparing to do a strategic snatch and grab on the stock/airline- or players currently assembling a position (post the announcement) in the lead up to this distribution.
Given the demographic of the current shareholders of Toll receiving this "Dividend"- which will include Institutions, Professional/Experienced traders and Broking Houses.
What is the capacity/appetite of the market in these current times to absorb that volume of an aviation stock, and what net effect will that have on the price?????
Or what will the commitment/fortitude of these new stockholders be to ride out the current Aviation Cycle???????
For Toll having had a "professional adviser" work on disposing of their holding for some time- they have paid a dividend in the form of an airline to their current holders- would they not just book the difference between the holding value in the books and the dividend as a book loss going forward????, and get on with life.
I understand fuel hedging by VB was only introduced after input by Toll at a board meeting. If this had not happened god only knows what would have happened with VB.
Section28,
It well known that Pacific National was the main game in the Patrick takeover and not VB. The market was well aware that TOLL wanted to offload VB since the word go. Going forward who knows whats next for the share price but there are lots of super funds who will be obliged to acquire VB holdings to maintain their index weighting.
Anyhooo VB up another 10% today.
Mmmmmbop,
I suppose you have to learn to amuse yourself in the back seat there's not much else to do.
It well known that Pacific National was the main game in the Patrick takeover and not VB. The market was well aware that TOLL wanted to offload VB since the word go. Going forward who knows whats next for the share price but there are lots of super funds who will be obliged to acquire VB holdings to maintain their index weighting.
Anyhooo VB up another 10% today.
Mmmmmbop,
I suppose you have to learn to amuse yourself in the back seat there's not much else to do.
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ANstar Wrote: Betsy, Branson was trying to buy more of Virgin Blue back at around $1.80 a share at the end of last year. Toll rejected that.
Or is he hanging around for the price to drop further and then sweep in?
To DJCCGuy - DJ has to change regardless - it simply can't survive in its current form. I took a DJ flight on the weekend and they were handing out those free earphones in the hope many would pay for the Foxtel onboard. I took one and only used it for the preview. You gotta wonder how much money is being wasted - totally unnecessarily - on those everyday.
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I never wonder but always laugh harder at guys on the flight deck who think because they have done an ATPL they know how an airline should be run.
desmontronic. I do not see what has changed, why would any current index hugger have to acquire further VBA shares, regardless their All Ordinaries index weighing is currently just 0.04%.
I find it even more amusing that the CEO of VB is a failed Commercial Pilot but is smart enough (thats up for debate) to run an airline.
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Conned air?
Lemme ask if I'm getting this right. Toll shareholders get free Virgin shares. Toll writes off the difference between its investment and the price of VBA averaged over five days before the strike date in August.
But if VBA goes up, the tax free value to Toll holders goes up, the write down on Toll's books goes down.
And, duh, Paul Little and his mates keep their VBA shares and seats on the VBA board.
Far ******* out.
But if VBA goes up, the tax free value to Toll holders goes up, the write down on Toll's books goes down.
And, duh, Paul Little and his mates keep their VBA shares and seats on the VBA board.
Far ******* out.
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I doubt Branson has the money or inclination to buy more shares in VB. The global aviation problem due to the price of fuel has probably hit his personal wealth as well.
Toll are getting out of the aviation business which isn't their core business so whats the fuss about. VB will be traded like crazy on the first few days as institutions try to get a piece of the action as the company is trading well below what it is worth on paper. Toll values the company at $1.47 and don't forget the $700 million in cash that VB has.
Also don't forget nearly 90% of the shares are off the market at the moment and it isn't till August that the 61.5% get distributed (1% remain with Toll). How many of those end up in Paul Little and his mates pocket as they are substantial share holders of Toll.
The funds (your superannuation) will invest in VB as soon as it gets back into the ASX 300 because that is what they do. They have exposure to all companies and they trade them daily.
If I was a betting man I would say that VB will be trading around $1 by Christmas as long as Australia doesn't get dragged down to much by the economic destruction of the US Empire.
PS. Headsets would cost next to nothing to make so you probably only need one or two people to buy the Foxtel to cover the cost of the days headsets. Also VB aren't giving away the advertising space on CH 13 and 29 for free. God knows if subliminal advertising works but the people who buy and sell that stuff probably believe that it does.
Toll are getting out of the aviation business which isn't their core business so whats the fuss about. VB will be traded like crazy on the first few days as institutions try to get a piece of the action as the company is trading well below what it is worth on paper. Toll values the company at $1.47 and don't forget the $700 million in cash that VB has.
Also don't forget nearly 90% of the shares are off the market at the moment and it isn't till August that the 61.5% get distributed (1% remain with Toll). How many of those end up in Paul Little and his mates pocket as they are substantial share holders of Toll.
The funds (your superannuation) will invest in VB as soon as it gets back into the ASX 300 because that is what they do. They have exposure to all companies and they trade them daily.
If I was a betting man I would say that VB will be trading around $1 by Christmas as long as Australia doesn't get dragged down to much by the economic destruction of the US Empire.
PS. Headsets would cost next to nothing to make so you probably only need one or two people to buy the Foxtel to cover the cost of the days headsets. Also VB aren't giving away the advertising space on CH 13 and 29 for free. God knows if subliminal advertising works but the people who buy and sell that stuff probably believe that it does.
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share price
"Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?"
.......VB shares will go to 10 cents or below. Anyone would be a fool to invest in airlines in a very uncertain future.
.......VB shares will go to 10 cents or below. Anyone would be a fool to invest in airlines in a very uncertain future.
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Middle Management
The decks need to be cleared of the vast numbers of middle managers that just werent here 7 years ago. Millions could be saved immediately when it's realised how much deadwood has been accumulated over the good years. 
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Word on the IFE is that BG doesn't give a **** whether people buy it or not. As long as it gets the advertising, (and it does), it's revenue neutral, including the headsets.
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Not sure about the newer white headsets but the old red ones were bought in "massive" quantities at 3.9 cents each.
Each box received by the stores guys was around 1400mm long, a metre high and 800mm wide and they were absolutely chock full of them.
It wouldn't surprise me if the LiveTV company provided them now.
Each box received by the stores guys was around 1400mm long, a metre high and 800mm wide and they were absolutely chock full of them.
It wouldn't surprise me if the LiveTV company provided them now.
The contrarian in me says this thread should read "how high can the VB share price go!"
Up 50% since last week.
LFandH,
Big call for your first post, pm me if you would like a wager.
Up 50% since last week.
LFandH,
Big call for your first post, pm me if you would like a wager.