Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Golden Road to Samarkand
Posts: 443
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
McBank defines a recommendation of "Outstanding" as an increase in share price of more than 5%.
Given that the share price has risen 10% from it's lowest point you should all sell your shares and join me sipping a Pina Colada on a beach in the Bahamas...
Given that the share price has risen 10% from it's lowest point you should all sell your shares and join me sipping a Pina Colada on a beach in the Bahamas...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A cheap seat at the front of a 777 :-)
Posts: 203
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Virgin Blue release is dated 21 September 2008, obviously it should be dated 21 October 2008.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 191
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
McBank defines a recommendation of "Outstanding" as an increase in share price of more than 5%.
Given that the share price has risen 10% from it's lowest point you should all sell your shares and join me sipping a Pina Colada on a beach in the Bahamas...
Given that the share price has risen 10% from it's lowest point you should all sell your shares and join me sipping a Pina Colada on a beach in the Bahamas...
so if you bought at the end of last week, you'd be about 20% better off if you sold tomorrow once you had settled.
Down again today - 6.15% and the outlook is not great. According to CommSec's figures, most buyers at the moment are only offering between 27 and 29 cents. The market is so fickle at the moment its likely to keep porpoising for a while yet.
Reporting
I read the article myself in the newspaper and whilst I am not privy to the actual Doc referred to it did seem to be reporting and not scaremongering.
Would it be better to not report such matters...............who decides that?
If you start reading something you then find it offensive, then stop. We are all adults capable of reaching our own conclusions, no matter the bias presented.
I didn't hear too many howls of derision when the senior execs announced a pay freeze(as reported by the press), yet when Pilots are mentiones we (or some anyway) get a little precious.
We're all big boys and girls...Go your hardest and report all you want, particularly if it's factual.
Would it be better to not report such matters...............who decides that?
If you start reading something you then find it offensive, then stop. We are all adults capable of reaching our own conclusions, no matter the bias presented.
I didn't hear too many howls of derision when the senior execs announced a pay freeze(as reported by the press), yet when Pilots are mentiones we (or some anyway) get a little precious.
We're all big boys and girls...Go your hardest and report all you want, particularly if it's factual.
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: US
Posts: 63
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
If the article is not too far from the truth, I wonder if in fact retrenchments might not be too far away?
Clearly, Godfrey needs to show some leadership and put a stop now to this VA nonsense otherwise the whole house of cards could be at significant risk of imploding.
Clearly, Godfrey needs to show some leadership and put a stop now to this VA nonsense otherwise the whole house of cards could be at significant risk of imploding.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A cheap seat at the front of a 777 :-)
Posts: 203
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I understand Virgin Blue lost of $5M+ in September and the loss for October will be greater !.
More info please or go away
Would love to know your source B772...
To me, it sounds like someone divided the recently 'guestimated' $55m loss by 12 and rounded up (keeping in mind it was a 'predicted loss' which is really a bit like taking the 21day forecast as gospel).
To me, it sounds like someone divided the recently 'guestimated' $55m loss by 12 and rounded up (keeping in mind it was a 'predicted loss' which is really a bit like taking the 21day forecast as gospel).
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Mae Sai
Posts: 138
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Caught up in a global rebound, or has VBA become a bit of a darling? Up 20% in the last week or so and the market analysts seem to like it:
Last edited by Adamastor; 4th Nov 2008 at 07:32.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 191
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't reckon they are loss making yet - load factors are still pretty high, though yields do look like they are going down.
i still think they will ride out this downturn... I'm sure they will pick up some business from QF as corporates look to cut costs.
Geoff Dixon even said that he thinks Jetstar will do better than QF as LCC's will tend to pick up more pax in a downturn.... Ithinkhe forgot that JQ don;t really serve to many business destiantions... Whereas Virgin Blue have a better mix of business/leisure routes.
i still think they will ride out this downturn... I'm sure they will pick up some business from QF as corporates look to cut costs.
Geoff Dixon even said that he thinks Jetstar will do better than QF as LCC's will tend to pick up more pax in a downturn.... Ithinkhe forgot that JQ don;t really serve to many business destiantions... Whereas Virgin Blue have a better mix of business/leisure routes.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 209
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There is going to be some pain at this airline, no doubt. Some pilots will be laid off, yet the company is still paying executives that have left the building in May 07 (over 400k), they are still throwing Birthday Parties and opening the new HQ with another party for 1500 people, WHAT THA!
Camp Davidian is alive and well.
Camp Davidian is alive and well.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 191
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
http://business.smh.com.au/business/airline-profits-predicted-to-take-a-nosedive-20081104-5hpo.html
JPMorgan believes Qantas carries "as much or more risk" than Virgin Blue's mostly domestic leisure market operations. The former generates about half its earnings in international markets while Australia's second-largest airline takes less than 10 per cent from overseas.
"As the economy slows and travellers respond to the weaker dollar, we expect the domestic aviation market to outperform international markets," a JPMorgan analyst, Matt Crowe, said in a note.
"We believe Virgin Blue is better positioned to benefit from this. We also expect increased travel budget scrutiny to help Virgin Blue finally win corporate market share."
"As the economy slows and travellers respond to the weaker dollar, we expect the domestic aviation market to outperform international markets," a JPMorgan analyst, Matt Crowe, said in a note.
"We believe Virgin Blue is better positioned to benefit from this. We also expect increased travel budget scrutiny to help Virgin Blue finally win corporate market share."
VB shares came up on Sky news this morning and the analysts all said not to waste your money as the company will go bust in the not too distant future... pretty dire and straight to the point I thought.
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Golden Road to Samarkand
Posts: 443
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
So, after having done their Due Diligence... Singapore Airlines is buying up Virgin Blue... knowing that it will go bust... with the aim of ensuring that it goes bust... which would benefit... QANTAS.
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Golden Road to Samarkand
Posts: 443
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Virgin Blue will be included on the ASX S&P 200 on the 17th November. Barring any unforeseen, unrelated circumstances, one would expect a price movement upwards as funds which require a certain percentage of ASX S&P 200 companies in their portfolios buy an allocation of Virgin Blue shares.
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: 38,000 ft
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Virgin Blue is expected to receive a boost from a decision by Emirates to allow its Skywards frequent flyer program members to earn and redeem points on the Australian carrier.
Virgin's Velocity members can already earn and redeem points on Emirates flights.
Skywards members will earn up to 125 per cent of the miles flown on Virgin from December 1.
Emirates carries more than 7 per cent of the passengers flying to and from Australia. - The Australian
Virgin's Velocity members can already earn and redeem points on Emirates flights.
Skywards members will earn up to 125 per cent of the miles flown on Virgin from December 1.
Emirates carries more than 7 per cent of the passengers flying to and from Australia. - The Australian
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: BAO
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Virgin Blue Share Price- the Year that Was.
As we wind down for the Christmas break and I am sure all wish the best for the year and conditions ahead to the good people (& their families) we know and have previously worked with in different times, involved and dependant on VB.
Given the many views and prognostications offered on the various threads related and pertaining to the subject (and my previous comments re the Toll distribution), I thought it would be a good time to relight the specific Share Price thread and offer some points in a year that was in review sense, to see where the collective opinion has settled (as always- stand to be corrected on any of it):
Toll extracted itself on 22 August 08 (taking a charge/hit of $1.3 billion AUD), some four months ago- and in effect diluted the stock by dropping 61% of the stock in one hit.
The VB model has shifted from the high turnover; marginalized revenue (compared to its then competitors) one type LCC start.
The first set of BIG Boeing keys are about to/have hit the Christmas stocking and the second set are being cut, polished and attached to the commemorative key ring, I understand the first one to be an Operating Lease with 2,3 & 4 Financed- with negotiations in train to stall/hold off airframe 3 & 4 and Emb deliveries.
The Voz start-up and equipment acquisition has been/and will continue to be funded ex cash flow on existing operations (always a big ask in my opinion- the parasitic drag builds exponentially) - what is the Capital impact of a B772??, 300-320 million USD???
The Fed in the US cut the cash rate from 1% to a target rate of 0-0.25% overnight, and the AU Dollar has rallied to near 70 cents US early today and as we have seen fuel has abated.
The Global economy is what it is (its potential surely is now visible) and we are seeing its impact here with 545 mining jobs evaporating overnight in Qld, as well as what has/ and is happening in the West- who knows what we'll see in the New Year, I wouldn't be surprised to look back on recent events as the tip of the iceberg.............
The Board has had a significant reshuffle post the Toll departure- are the new proponents up to speed- and do they (and Management??) have the experience in a fast moving/degrading, high capital/ marginal return (by comparison) Aviation market environment???? (Yes acknowledged- Mr Vaile had a seat at the table when we watched AN and its Regionals evaporate, circa 20,000 jobs and families- and the horrific events in NY that played a major role as far as ultimate fleet values and equity percentiles).
Apart from moving to hold off Voz airframes 3 & 4 and the normal media and presentation/s in conjunction with the Annual General Meeting, (and a mention in the annual report presentation of a third phase contingency plan???), There does not seem to be much coming forward publicly to stabilize market (let alone staff/ commercial customers) confidence from the Board or Executive Mgt.
The appetite for cash for this exercise (as we all acknowledge) will be veracious once it gets going (putting aside the market conditions that they are trying to penetrate & cash sunk to get here) - Apart from "Cash Reserves"- Liberating stored equity out of hull values in a fleet in the current and emerging market is going to be a difficult thing- inevitably ends up as an "in the eye of the beholder" exercise pending which side of the table you occupy.
The Queensland Government participated hard in the selection/"Auction" process to obtain the basing of the VB operation, and contributed an unknown level of support/funding to the startup (a value that is not known for "Commercial in Confidence" reasons). There was later much fanfare and encouragement for Queenslanders/and everybody else to dive into the float at $2.40 when it occurred.
As an aside- sometime prior to the float and I can’t recall the event or when, it was on one of Sir RB’s many visits that occurred in those days- from memory "We will offer a float of a portion to let the broader public participate after the risk has been reduced" or words to that effect.
In days gone by the Virgin Flare, Merit and Culture would be orated in large volume from every medium- commenting and offering informed wisdom on any subject from any soapbox or platform available. For mine it seems remarkably quiet as to strategy and ship steadying at the moment- for all concerned I trust it goes well, as we have seen too much Cultural Fixation and the inevitable results in recent years gone by.
So here we are- Chart ex the ASX site for the previous 12 months:
The volumes since August are quite something.
So now as the incumbent #2 airline and with the Share Price having a long hard look at below 0.25 cents- where to from here?
A happy and safe festive season to all.
Rgds
Section 28
Given the many views and prognostications offered on the various threads related and pertaining to the subject (and my previous comments re the Toll distribution), I thought it would be a good time to relight the specific Share Price thread and offer some points in a year that was in review sense, to see where the collective opinion has settled (as always- stand to be corrected on any of it):
Toll extracted itself on 22 August 08 (taking a charge/hit of $1.3 billion AUD), some four months ago- and in effect diluted the stock by dropping 61% of the stock in one hit.
The VB model has shifted from the high turnover; marginalized revenue (compared to its then competitors) one type LCC start.
The first set of BIG Boeing keys are about to/have hit the Christmas stocking and the second set are being cut, polished and attached to the commemorative key ring, I understand the first one to be an Operating Lease with 2,3 & 4 Financed- with negotiations in train to stall/hold off airframe 3 & 4 and Emb deliveries.
The Voz start-up and equipment acquisition has been/and will continue to be funded ex cash flow on existing operations (always a big ask in my opinion- the parasitic drag builds exponentially) - what is the Capital impact of a B772??, 300-320 million USD???
The Fed in the US cut the cash rate from 1% to a target rate of 0-0.25% overnight, and the AU Dollar has rallied to near 70 cents US early today and as we have seen fuel has abated.
The Global economy is what it is (its potential surely is now visible) and we are seeing its impact here with 545 mining jobs evaporating overnight in Qld, as well as what has/ and is happening in the West- who knows what we'll see in the New Year, I wouldn't be surprised to look back on recent events as the tip of the iceberg.............
The Board has had a significant reshuffle post the Toll departure- are the new proponents up to speed- and do they (and Management??) have the experience in a fast moving/degrading, high capital/ marginal return (by comparison) Aviation market environment???? (Yes acknowledged- Mr Vaile had a seat at the table when we watched AN and its Regionals evaporate, circa 20,000 jobs and families- and the horrific events in NY that played a major role as far as ultimate fleet values and equity percentiles).
Apart from moving to hold off Voz airframes 3 & 4 and the normal media and presentation/s in conjunction with the Annual General Meeting, (and a mention in the annual report presentation of a third phase contingency plan???), There does not seem to be much coming forward publicly to stabilize market (let alone staff/ commercial customers) confidence from the Board or Executive Mgt.
The appetite for cash for this exercise (as we all acknowledge) will be veracious once it gets going (putting aside the market conditions that they are trying to penetrate & cash sunk to get here) - Apart from "Cash Reserves"- Liberating stored equity out of hull values in a fleet in the current and emerging market is going to be a difficult thing- inevitably ends up as an "in the eye of the beholder" exercise pending which side of the table you occupy.
The Queensland Government participated hard in the selection/"Auction" process to obtain the basing of the VB operation, and contributed an unknown level of support/funding to the startup (a value that is not known for "Commercial in Confidence" reasons). There was later much fanfare and encouragement for Queenslanders/and everybody else to dive into the float at $2.40 when it occurred.
As an aside- sometime prior to the float and I can’t recall the event or when, it was on one of Sir RB’s many visits that occurred in those days- from memory "We will offer a float of a portion to let the broader public participate after the risk has been reduced" or words to that effect.
In days gone by the Virgin Flare, Merit and Culture would be orated in large volume from every medium- commenting and offering informed wisdom on any subject from any soapbox or platform available. For mine it seems remarkably quiet as to strategy and ship steadying at the moment- for all concerned I trust it goes well, as we have seen too much Cultural Fixation and the inevitable results in recent years gone by.
So here we are- Chart ex the ASX site for the previous 12 months:
VBA, VIRGIN BLUE HOLDINGS ORD
The chart of daily prices over 1 year for security VBA
ASX excludes all liability arising out of any inaccuracies in this Chart, except where liability is made non-excludable by legislation. Chart values may be adjusted for changes in a company's capital structure or to link historical values that represent the company's primary equity security.
Charting
Chart the price and volume of various ASX listed securities and compare their performance to an index. You can chart shares, indices and interest rate and hybrid securities.
The chart of daily prices over 1 year for security VBA
ASX excludes all liability arising out of any inaccuracies in this Chart, except where liability is made non-excludable by legislation. Chart values may be adjusted for changes in a company's capital structure or to link historical values that represent the company's primary equity security.
Charting
Chart the price and volume of various ASX listed securities and compare their performance to an index. You can chart shares, indices and interest rate and hybrid securities.
So now as the incumbent #2 airline and with the Share Price having a long hard look at below 0.25 cents- where to from here?
A happy and safe festive season to all.
Rgds
Section 28