Qantas/Jetstar market reductions/exists
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: In A Hangar Near You
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Commodity Bubbles.
This commmodity boom,or super cycle,has been characterised by a series of commodity specific bubbles...Zinc,Uranium,copper,nickel and now we have coal,iron ore and oil.
Analysts are predicting that the price of oil will take a dive when it breaks below $US120/barrel.
Its(Aviation Kerosene) already gone from $US172 to $US158 over recent days.
Dixon would be aware of this trend and is using the oil screen to jusify these schedule changes and staff cuts.
They wont be reinstated when the oil price tanks(No Pun Intended).
In the mean time Jet* eats into mainline.
Give it about 18 months and there will be a whole lot of repainting goin'on and Dixon will have successfully reduced his Labour costs by about 40% company wide.
The share price will still languish around $3.65 and his precious shareholders will still be treated only marginally better than QF customers and staff.
Once capacity increases and the travelling punter has a real choice they will leave Qantas in droves.
Unless of course Dixons successor spends a whole of money on rebuilding the brand.
Where is the new chairman and what is he doing ?
Analysts are predicting that the price of oil will take a dive when it breaks below $US120/barrel.
Its(Aviation Kerosene) already gone from $US172 to $US158 over recent days.
Dixon would be aware of this trend and is using the oil screen to jusify these schedule changes and staff cuts.
They wont be reinstated when the oil price tanks(No Pun Intended).
In the mean time Jet* eats into mainline.
Give it about 18 months and there will be a whole lot of repainting goin'on and Dixon will have successfully reduced his Labour costs by about 40% company wide.
The share price will still languish around $3.65 and his precious shareholders will still be treated only marginally better than QF customers and staff.
Once capacity increases and the travelling punter has a real choice they will leave Qantas in droves.
Unless of course Dixons successor spends a whole of money on rebuilding the brand.
Where is the new chairman and what is he doing ?
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Australia at the moment
Posts: 177
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think it is all about economics.
The strength of the Aussie dollar (driven by mostly mineral prices and our higher interest rates) is making it unattractive for the Japanese tourist. That is the real driver behind the drop in passenger numbers; Australia is no longer a cheap destination. Combined this with the rising price of fuel and to some extent labour costs (ie everyone not just pilots; engineers, biscuit and bag chuckers and check in staff) driving up the price of fares, resulting in less of our litle Japanese friends visiting.
The tourism industry will take a hit with job losses for sure. My next question is what routes will go next as the above causes make Australia a less viable destination for overseas visitors? Qantas seem to be drip feeding the announcements, maybe to protect the share price and the confidence in the Airline and tourism industry. Which I feel is a fairly predictable and responsible action.
What next?
My tip a reduction in frequecy in the Cairns Ayers Rock sectors and Cairns Alice Springs sectors, Hamilton Island also may be reduced or perhaps a smaller Dash 8 used. After all they take passengers directly from the international flights that have been axed, and maybe Jet Star placed on the routes. Who knows? I think a bit more belt tightening will occur by Qantas and maybe Jet Star will be the winner as they redefine the Airline.
Anyway watch this space interesting times, I hope eventually the Cairns region will get the services back as it is good for us with interests in the Ski fields in Japan.
The strength of the Aussie dollar (driven by mostly mineral prices and our higher interest rates) is making it unattractive for the Japanese tourist. That is the real driver behind the drop in passenger numbers; Australia is no longer a cheap destination. Combined this with the rising price of fuel and to some extent labour costs (ie everyone not just pilots; engineers, biscuit and bag chuckers and check in staff) driving up the price of fares, resulting in less of our litle Japanese friends visiting.
The tourism industry will take a hit with job losses for sure. My next question is what routes will go next as the above causes make Australia a less viable destination for overseas visitors? Qantas seem to be drip feeding the announcements, maybe to protect the share price and the confidence in the Airline and tourism industry. Which I feel is a fairly predictable and responsible action.
What next?
My tip a reduction in frequecy in the Cairns Ayers Rock sectors and Cairns Alice Springs sectors, Hamilton Island also may be reduced or perhaps a smaller Dash 8 used. After all they take passengers directly from the international flights that have been axed, and maybe Jet Star placed on the routes. Who knows? I think a bit more belt tightening will occur by Qantas and maybe Jet Star will be the winner as they redefine the Airline.
Anyway watch this space interesting times, I hope eventually the Cairns region will get the services back as it is good for us with interests in the Ski fields in Japan.
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Where I'm not alarmed
Posts: 454
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As sure as night follows day, Qantas is being sacrificed again for Jetstar. Chop and change may be acceptable in a home market but when will some of the "planners" at Qantas realise that this theory may not apply off-shore?
On another note, why do Jetstar imagine that the punters will accept a one-stop operation from Sydney to SaiGon on an A320 when they can go non-stop on shiny 777's with Vietnam Airlines? If they do want to one-stop travel, SIA via Singapore or Cathay via Hong Kong are better alternatives. I wonder when Jetstar will retire from this route?
On another note, why do Jetstar imagine that the punters will accept a one-stop operation from Sydney to SaiGon on an A320 when they can go non-stop on shiny 777's with Vietnam Airlines? If they do want to one-stop travel, SIA via Singapore or Cathay via Hong Kong are better alternatives. I wonder when Jetstar will retire from this route?
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Roguesville, cloud cuckooland
Posts: 1,197
Likes: 0
Received 16 Likes
on
5 Posts
I think mstr caution is correct. There are two new domestically configured mainline A330's arriving in the near future and I predict the spare A330 not going to Tokyo will be gainfully employed on the Perth run.
The two new J* Tokyo services are a last ditch stand to hang on to the precious Narita slots until, and if, the the tourist market recovers. If it does then I'd predict mainline would go back in there, if not, then Qantas may ditch the slots and bid all but the QF21/22 service goodbye.
The two new J* Tokyo services are a last ditch stand to hang on to the precious Narita slots until, and if, the the tourist market recovers. If it does then I'd predict mainline would go back in there, if not, then Qantas may ditch the slots and bid all but the QF21/22 service goodbye.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Close to home
Posts: 180
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Not Economics
If it was about economics the Japanese would not be going to the states.
Next time you are in HNL have a look at the arrival board....5 flights a day arrive from Japan...full .
America has never been a cheap destination for the Japanese.They can however shop there and.... in the case of HNL.....they can swim there.
Australia has been marketed poorly and Qantas has been sending poor quality equipment up there for years.
Now they send an LCC carrier up there that no one has heard of.
The Japanese market requires a "brand" airline that delivers quality to quality destinations...Australia provides neither
Next time you are in HNL have a look at the arrival board....5 flights a day arrive from Japan...full .
America has never been a cheap destination for the Japanese.They can however shop there and.... in the case of HNL.....they can swim there.
Australia has been marketed poorly and Qantas has been sending poor quality equipment up there for years.
Now they send an LCC carrier up there that no one has heard of.
The Japanese market requires a "brand" airline that delivers quality to quality destinations...Australia provides neither
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: australia
Age: 74
Posts: 907
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Captain.Que: Commodity Bubbles.
The share price will still languish around $3.65 and his precious shareholders will still be treated only marginally better than QF customers and staff.
It will languish until November ,when the next traunch of executive bonus' are due. Guess what their min price is ? That's right $3.64.
Guess we''ll hear all sorts of wonderous releases from QF management just prior to then, in order to get the price up so they can get their grubby mits on their ill gotten gains
.
Didn't old Rivkin go to jail for less?
I wonder if a look back was done on where the share price was and what the redemption value was for past executive bonus' and one was to correlate with Qantas media releases just prior to these dates would any connection be found?
The share price will still languish around $3.65 and his precious shareholders will still be treated only marginally better than QF customers and staff.
It will languish until November ,when the next traunch of executive bonus' are due. Guess what their min price is ? That's right $3.64.
Guess we''ll hear all sorts of wonderous releases from QF management just prior to then, in order to get the price up so they can get their grubby mits on their ill gotten gains
.Didn't old Rivkin go to jail for less?
I wonder if a look back was done on where the share price was and what the redemption value was for past executive bonus' and one was to correlate with Qantas media releases just prior to these dates would any connection be found?
Last edited by blow.n.gasket; 14th Jun 2008 at 09:30.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Deathstar to fly to Tokyo
Under the new arrangements, if JQ tickets SYD-CNS-NRT are sold much cheaper than QF tickets SYD-NRT, then the next thing the loads on mainline will drop (as people will put up with a transit stop to save bucks), then SYD-NRT will end-up Deathstar as well.
And the 'new' JQ services SYD-OOL-KIX-OOL-SYD are really just the former triangular SYD-KIX-BNE-SYD flights redirected.
QF have never understood the JP market, and have only survived due to All Nippon AIrways and Ansett pulling out of the market, and the fact that JAL fly their 'JALways' (inferior subsidiary, Thai cabin crewed, HNL pilots and worn-out aircraft) product here a lot rather than mainline JAL.
And the 'new' JQ services SYD-OOL-KIX-OOL-SYD are really just the former triangular SYD-KIX-BNE-SYD flights redirected.
QF have never understood the JP market, and have only survived due to All Nippon AIrways and Ansett pulling out of the market, and the fact that JAL fly their 'JALways' (inferior subsidiary, Thai cabin crewed, HNL pilots and worn-out aircraft) product here a lot rather than mainline JAL.
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: The Asylum
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It constantly amazes me reading these forums that paint the Japanese as elitist passengers who only can travel in groups on full service carriers to countries that pander to their wishes.
There are 127 million people in Japan with a higher percenage of "younger" age groups. These groups do not conform to the traditional Japanese perception and are quite happy to backpack around the world to countries of their choice and on carriers that offer the best value.
Fly a LCC anywhere and people wil travel on them.
There are 127 million people in Japan with a higher percenage of "younger" age groups. These groups do not conform to the traditional Japanese perception and are quite happy to backpack around the world to countries of their choice and on carriers that offer the best value.
Fly a LCC anywhere and people wil travel on them.
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Hell
Posts: 64
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Japanese Backpackers
Do not see Australia as an interesting destination.
The Japanese travel market is highly regulated by the government with minimum fare legislation in place.
If LCCs were so popular in Japan Jet*would be full all the time every time.
They are not and never have been.
The route structure for Japan by Qantas/Jetstar has always been kneejerk and ad hoc.
Why?
They dont understand the market.
Japanese backpackers are typically male and under 25 and constitute less than 1% of travellers .
Their preferred destinations are Europe and the States
The Japanese travel market is highly regulated by the government with minimum fare legislation in place.
If LCCs were so popular in Japan Jet*would be full all the time every time.
They are not and never have been.
The route structure for Japan by Qantas/Jetstar has always been kneejerk and ad hoc.
Why?
They dont understand the market.
Japanese backpackers are typically male and under 25 and constitute less than 1% of travellers .
Their preferred destinations are Europe and the States
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: australia
Posts: 166
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ok you clowns I could not resist
Are you people really this stupid. Qantas is a business yes a friggin business which needs to survive. It's not there to appease the Queensland tourism industry. It is to provide shareholders with a return on their hard earned cash. Now if that means axing mainline or Jetstar srvices. It has every frickin right too. The price of oil year to date has gone up 100% and now accounts for 30% of their costs. What should they keep useless routes open not providing a return on equity.
The fact they have bought in Jetstar may be the saving grace for the Qantas group. There are airlines folding and fleets being grounded as I speak.
Oh yes GD has no idea on how to run an airline but you clowns do. Stick to your day time job whatever it is. Are pilote really this stupid? I hope not as I fear for the industries future.
Are you people really this stupid. Qantas is a business yes a friggin business which needs to survive. It's not there to appease the Queensland tourism industry. It is to provide shareholders with a return on their hard earned cash. Now if that means axing mainline or Jetstar srvices. It has every frickin right too. The price of oil year to date has gone up 100% and now accounts for 30% of their costs. What should they keep useless routes open not providing a return on equity.
The fact they have bought in Jetstar may be the saving grace for the Qantas group. There are airlines folding and fleets being grounded as I speak.
Oh yes GD has no idea on how to run an airline but you clowns do. Stick to your day time job whatever it is. Are pilote really this stupid? I hope not as I fear for the industries future.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: In A Hangar Near You
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Whoa Kemo Sabay
Qantas has $3billion in the kitty.
The oil price is on the way down
Qantas has continually disappointed its shareholders with both its dividend and share price.
Executive wealth/remuneration has increased exponentially.
It has been good fortune not good management that has put QF in a position that is a long way from going broke.
The reason QF is in business is to carry paying customers from Point A to Point B...Dixon treats the paying customer abysmally by providing third rate IFE,an aging fleet and a pathetic ontime departure record.
Its about "customers" and they are being treated like ****e.
Without customers there is no Qantas.
The customers generate the cashflow....wake up Geoff or more importantly......
FOGeoff
The oil price is on the way down
Qantas has continually disappointed its shareholders with both its dividend and share price.
Executive wealth/remuneration has increased exponentially.
It has been good fortune not good management that has put QF in a position that is a long way from going broke.
The reason QF is in business is to carry paying customers from Point A to Point B...Dixon treats the paying customer abysmally by providing third rate IFE,an aging fleet and a pathetic ontime departure record.
Its about "customers" and they are being treated like ****e.
Without customers there is no Qantas.
The customers generate the cashflow....wake up Geoff or more importantly......
FOGeoff
Captain.Que
That's what we all thought, but have a look at what happened on Wall St overnight:
The oil price is on the way down
Oil soars to new high over $US138
Crude oil surged more than $US10 a barrel to a record as the dollar weakened after the US unemployment rate grew the most in two decades, rising tensions in the Middle East and Morgan Stanley said prices may reach $US150 within a month.
Oil may "spike'' because "Asia is taking an unprecedented share'' of Middle East exports, Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer wrote.
The US dollar weakened against the euro after unemployment rose to 5.5 percent, signaling the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to increase interest rates.
Oil also rose after an Israeli minister said an attack on Iran may be necessary.
Oil is "being used as a hedge by speculative buyers for the weakened dollar,'' said Gary Adams, vice chairman of oil and gas consulting at Deloitte & Touche in Houston. "We are seeing that the price will continue to go up as investors look for alternatives.''
Crude oil for July delivery rose $US10.75, or 8.4%, to settle at $US138.54 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Friday's increase was the biggest gain in US dollar terms ever and the largest on a percentage basis since June 1996. Oil rose $US11.33 to an all-time high $US139.12 a barrel during trading.
Today's rise was bigger than the entire price of oil on December 10, 1998, when crude traded at $US10.72 a barrel. Oil has more than doubled in the past year.
"This is all just a plain old stampede,'' Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said. "The sellers have basically pulled their orders so it doesn't take much incremental buying to push prices higher.''
Petrol for July delivery rose 21.35 cents, or 6.4%, to $US3.548 a gallon in New York after reaching a record $US3.565. Regular petrol at the pump fell 0.3 cent to an average $US3.986 a gallon after touching a record Thursday, AAA, the biggest US motoring organisation, said.
Shaul Mofaz, Israel's Transportation Minister and a contender for the post of prime minister, told the Yediot Ahronot daily newspaper that Israel will have to attack Iran if it doesn't abandon its nuclear-development program.
"The Iranian risk premium, which had left the market for some time, is likely to return and hover over the market in the next few weeks,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA. "The knee-jerk reaction to the comments by Mofaz will wear off quickly because Israel would not broadcast its intention in this fashion.''
With Asia taking an "unprecedented'' share of Middle East oil, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil may reach $US150 a barrel by July 4, Morgan Stanley's Slorer said in his report.
BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, boosted its 2008 oil outlook by 19% to $US124 on climbing Asian demand for diesel fuel and kerosene. Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its New York crude-oil price forecast for the second half of this year by 32%.
The market "is underpinned by demand, which is totally different than 1973 and 1979'' when supply cuts caused prices to surge, said Ray Carbone, president of Paramount Options in New York. Oil's rise is linked to "supply and demand. Nobody wants to admit it. Too bad.''
Crude oil surged more than $US10 a barrel to a record as the dollar weakened after the US unemployment rate grew the most in two decades, rising tensions in the Middle East and Morgan Stanley said prices may reach $US150 within a month.
Oil may "spike'' because "Asia is taking an unprecedented share'' of Middle East exports, Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer wrote.
The US dollar weakened against the euro after unemployment rose to 5.5 percent, signaling the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to increase interest rates.
Oil also rose after an Israeli minister said an attack on Iran may be necessary.
Oil is "being used as a hedge by speculative buyers for the weakened dollar,'' said Gary Adams, vice chairman of oil and gas consulting at Deloitte & Touche in Houston. "We are seeing that the price will continue to go up as investors look for alternatives.''
Crude oil for July delivery rose $US10.75, or 8.4%, to settle at $US138.54 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Friday's increase was the biggest gain in US dollar terms ever and the largest on a percentage basis since June 1996. Oil rose $US11.33 to an all-time high $US139.12 a barrel during trading.
Today's rise was bigger than the entire price of oil on December 10, 1998, when crude traded at $US10.72 a barrel. Oil has more than doubled in the past year.
"This is all just a plain old stampede,'' Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York, said. "The sellers have basically pulled their orders so it doesn't take much incremental buying to push prices higher.''
Petrol for July delivery rose 21.35 cents, or 6.4%, to $US3.548 a gallon in New York after reaching a record $US3.565. Regular petrol at the pump fell 0.3 cent to an average $US3.986 a gallon after touching a record Thursday, AAA, the biggest US motoring organisation, said.
Shaul Mofaz, Israel's Transportation Minister and a contender for the post of prime minister, told the Yediot Ahronot daily newspaper that Israel will have to attack Iran if it doesn't abandon its nuclear-development program.
"The Iranian risk premium, which had left the market for some time, is likely to return and hover over the market in the next few weeks,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA. "The knee-jerk reaction to the comments by Mofaz will wear off quickly because Israel would not broadcast its intention in this fashion.''
With Asia taking an "unprecedented'' share of Middle East oil, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil may reach $US150 a barrel by July 4, Morgan Stanley's Slorer said in his report.
BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, boosted its 2008 oil outlook by 19% to $US124 on climbing Asian demand for diesel fuel and kerosene. Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its New York crude-oil price forecast for the second half of this year by 32%.
The market "is underpinned by demand, which is totally different than 1973 and 1979'' when supply cuts caused prices to surge, said Ray Carbone, president of Paramount Options in New York. Oil's rise is linked to "supply and demand. Nobody wants to admit it. Too bad.''
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 172
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I have been asking that same question for weeks. They should at least be arriving in the next few months, with new destinations to follow, looks like a no-go
Obviously that plan is down the drain for the moment
Obviously that plan is down the drain for the moment
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 172
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think AirAsia X is going to beat JQ to every international market first, securing their customer base with these new A330's they are getting, and they sound pretty good with all the self-ordering options, IFE, leather seats, mood-lighting etc...
