Toll grits teeth as VB shares head south
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No doubt that Brett Godfrey has struggled over the last few years since the departure of Rob Sherrard.
Brett Godfrey was only ever the accountant (a good one, but really only the accountant) and Rob was the imagination and dream behind VB.
I always wondered why Rob Sherrard was never allowed to be mention in any of the PR blurs.
Never.
Even though he was the 2IC...????
There was a lot of luck for Brett, considering he bought the recipe from Virgin LCC and then it all fell into his lap when Ansett collapsed.
Easy come easy go...so it goes. But Brett Godfrey might be on a short-line, he has done a good job. A very enthusiastic employee.
But we all reach a point....that point is the 'Peter Principle'.
Brett Godfrey was only ever the accountant (a good one, but really only the accountant) and Rob was the imagination and dream behind VB.
I always wondered why Rob Sherrard was never allowed to be mention in any of the PR blurs.
Never.
Even though he was the 2IC...????
There was a lot of luck for Brett, considering he bought the recipe from Virgin LCC and then it all fell into his lap when Ansett collapsed.
Easy come easy go...so it goes. But Brett Godfrey might be on a short-line, he has done a good job. A very enthusiastic employee.
But we all reach a point....that point is the 'Peter Principle'.
Last edited by tiptoeturkey; 2nd Jun 2008 at 12:03.
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but in the Good Old Days, it might be a consideration to "PUT THE FARES UP"!!
Opinions and spin matter very little in the face of economic facts. When the inevitable rebuilding and reshuffles occur, hopefully the profits from a modest increase in airfares, to something more realistic, will be directed towards things that are going to make airlines more sustainable.
we all reach a point....that point is the 'Peter Principle'.
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Heard OZ Jet will buy it when it hits 0.50 cents making the whole thing worth 500 million. Dump the EMBs and the stupid cabin jokes and she'd make money again , bring back the hot brekky ? The VB crews might be lucky enough to get a hand fly of the mighty 737-200 ? 
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DJ needs to change their business model and just be a full service carrier and compete directly with QF, and then the other 2 low cost jetstar and tiger can compete for the low cost market... theres just no market out there for DJ it seems
For some unknown reason, DJ wanted to go international on its own with the LAX crossing when it would have made far more sense (in my mind) to partner up with an existing international (SIA, ANZ, United?) and concentrate on shoring up and expanding the domestic market. Now the company is stuck in a quandary. Can't go up and can't go down. It's like getting nibbled to death by ducks.
It is anticipated that business growth in the next decade or two will hinge on providing personalised customer service. Let's see if DJ can innovate in the airline world in this direction and not just stay afloat, but grow. I don't hold out much hope with accountants in charge.
Last edited by Lodown; 2nd Jun 2008 at 19:51.
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Rread it carefully
Aerocat,
As I have now read the article again, I realise that UBS is'n't linked to VB in any way. I assumed that they were their accountants perhaps?
I now realise that it's just a bunch of analysts sitting around making predictions based on market factors. I wont take anything seriously until VB announce a profit warning.
Thank you for pointing out my inability in extracting accurate information from financial columns. Isn't that the idea of newpapers these days, to report speculation and make it look like hard facts?
Please accept my humble apologies
As I have now read the article again, I realise that UBS is'n't linked to VB in any way. I assumed that they were their accountants perhaps?
I now realise that it's just a bunch of analysts sitting around making predictions based on market factors. I wont take anything seriously until VB announce a profit warning.
Thank you for pointing out my inability in extracting accurate information from financial columns. Isn't that the idea of newpapers these days, to report speculation and make it look like hard facts?
Please accept my humble apologies
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Trust the messenger?
Guys, wait, look at the messenger. UBS has just lost BUCKETS of dosh in the sub-prime, and we look at them as experts!!!
just for your edification, here was the 'expert' view 13 months ago, have a good read, then make your own conclusions as to the state of VB. the last sentence is the best!
Quote
April 24, 2007 04:00am
Article from: AAP
THE dollar could drop by 10 per cent by late 2009 with commodity prices predicted to decline over the next few years as miners increase their output, a leading forecaster said.
Access Economics said most industrial commodities have reached their price peak and should fall from their highs in March, or will rise for a couple more quarters before falling by late 2009.
The dollar neared 84 US cents last week, its highest levels since August 1990.
"The Australian dollar has been going great guns - not surprisingly given strong commodity prices and high Australian interest rates," Access said.
"Although the exact timing of shifts in the Australian dollar and in world prices for commodities that Australia sells are not as closely matched as they once were, the broad trends in commodity prices are still reflected in the Australian dollar."
Its panel of forecasters in the Access Minerals Monitor predicts the dollar will be at 79 US cents in June 2007, before slowly falling to 73.80 cents by September 2009.
Access said that while there are suitable deposits readily available for many commodities, it is only now that supply constraints are being alleviated through a substantial increase in capital expenditure for mines and transport over the past two years.
"These supply constraints will not exist in the long term, and many mining companies are expecting new supply to come on stream over the next couple of years," the forecaster said.
"While some mineral prices are expected to rise for a time, most are seen well below their March 2007 prices by late 2009."
It also said that China's demand for metals will not continue to increase at the same pace as it has in recent years, but it does see further sizeable increases in its use of industrial commodities.
"Analysts see this boom as lasting longer and stronger than before. That continues a trend seen in the revisions for quite some time," Access said.
"The longer the short term stays great, the more analysts are tempted to build better news into the longer term as well."
The Mineral Monitors panel expects iron ore prices to be higher in September 2009 than March 2007, rising by 18 per cent for lump iron ore and 15 per cent for fine iron ore.
But it expects nickel prices have peaked after soaring nearly 30 per cent in recent months and will drop by 57 per cent as new supply comes on line in 2009.
Lead prices are forecast to fall by just over 50 per cent by late 2009 after a further price rise in the first three months of the year, while zinc prices are expected to drop 40 per cent and tin prices are tipped to fall nearly 36 per cent.
Copper prices are forecast to fall 31 per cent, the panel says, while price falls of more than 20 per cent are expected by mid-2009 for silver, aluminium and hard coking coal.
Gold prices are forecast to rise for the rest of 2007, peaking in early 2008, while oil prices are forecast to rise until late 2007, before falling to $US56.11 a barrel in September 2009
End of quote.
just for your edification, here was the 'expert' view 13 months ago, have a good read, then make your own conclusions as to the state of VB. the last sentence is the best!
Quote
April 24, 2007 04:00am
Article from: AAP
THE dollar could drop by 10 per cent by late 2009 with commodity prices predicted to decline over the next few years as miners increase their output, a leading forecaster said.
Access Economics said most industrial commodities have reached their price peak and should fall from their highs in March, or will rise for a couple more quarters before falling by late 2009.
The dollar neared 84 US cents last week, its highest levels since August 1990.
"The Australian dollar has been going great guns - not surprisingly given strong commodity prices and high Australian interest rates," Access said.
"Although the exact timing of shifts in the Australian dollar and in world prices for commodities that Australia sells are not as closely matched as they once were, the broad trends in commodity prices are still reflected in the Australian dollar."
Its panel of forecasters in the Access Minerals Monitor predicts the dollar will be at 79 US cents in June 2007, before slowly falling to 73.80 cents by September 2009.
Access said that while there are suitable deposits readily available for many commodities, it is only now that supply constraints are being alleviated through a substantial increase in capital expenditure for mines and transport over the past two years.
"These supply constraints will not exist in the long term, and many mining companies are expecting new supply to come on stream over the next couple of years," the forecaster said.
"While some mineral prices are expected to rise for a time, most are seen well below their March 2007 prices by late 2009."
It also said that China's demand for metals will not continue to increase at the same pace as it has in recent years, but it does see further sizeable increases in its use of industrial commodities.
"Analysts see this boom as lasting longer and stronger than before. That continues a trend seen in the revisions for quite some time," Access said.
"The longer the short term stays great, the more analysts are tempted to build better news into the longer term as well."
The Mineral Monitors panel expects iron ore prices to be higher in September 2009 than March 2007, rising by 18 per cent for lump iron ore and 15 per cent for fine iron ore.
But it expects nickel prices have peaked after soaring nearly 30 per cent in recent months and will drop by 57 per cent as new supply comes on line in 2009.
Lead prices are forecast to fall by just over 50 per cent by late 2009 after a further price rise in the first three months of the year, while zinc prices are expected to drop 40 per cent and tin prices are tipped to fall nearly 36 per cent.
Copper prices are forecast to fall 31 per cent, the panel says, while price falls of more than 20 per cent are expected by mid-2009 for silver, aluminium and hard coking coal.
Gold prices are forecast to rise for the rest of 2007, peaking in early 2008, while oil prices are forecast to rise until late 2007, before falling to $US56.11 a barrel in September 2009
End of quote.
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VBA Chart for 6 mths ex ASX website
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Why doesn't QF buy the lot?Offer about $1.50 to TOLL for the lot and still walk away with a bargain that will give 100% market share!
Aus market protected 100% from a foreign invasion.
Market consolidation long overdue.
Aus market protected 100% from a foreign invasion.
Market consolidation long overdue.
The volume of stock avble to the market is not substantial enough to allow a buyer to influence boardroom decisions. This is why Patrick and Toll have been unable to influence the goings on at VB.
The major players at VB have engineered the stock ownership volumes so it only gives the perception of being a listed co.
That is why VB will not have any senior mangmnt change, no matter how poorly they do their respective jobs.
The major players at VB have engineered the stock ownership volumes so it only gives the perception of being a listed co.
That is why VB will not have any senior mangmnt change, no matter how poorly they do their respective jobs.
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Loads year to date end of Mar were up to 82.5% up 0.5% on 2007 (ASX). This will obviously be coming down a little bit since Apr and May have been quieter but hardly the doom and gloom you folks are talking here.
Still plenty of freight coming through from the majority owners and that would be set to rise when SYD-LAX gets going. Not sure what QF and UA will be doing without the freight that Toll won't be sending there way.
Also as VOz will have the newest planes on the route and QF will be waiting for the A380's to arrive I could see quite a few people switching to a brand new plane as opposed to what QF have on offer.
As for investing in airlines I doubt any broker would be recommending anyone in the world to buy into.
Still plenty of freight coming through from the majority owners and that would be set to rise when SYD-LAX gets going. Not sure what QF and UA will be doing without the freight that Toll won't be sending there way.
Also as VOz will have the newest planes on the route and QF will be waiting for the A380's to arrive I could see quite a few people switching to a brand new plane as opposed to what QF have on offer.
As for investing in airlines I doubt any broker would be recommending anyone in the world to buy into.
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Load factors
You ownly have to see what flight levels most 737 are flying at since Feb -and if you are at 39,40 & 41 its not paying the bills.
Check tigers heights in A320- 35,36,37 sometimes
The same situation happened with Compass II
Have heard a few Qantas at 40 & 41 laterly, must be a problem to them also.
Check tigers heights in A320- 35,36,37 sometimes
The same situation happened with Compass II
Have heard a few Qantas at 40 & 41 laterly, must be a problem to them also.
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The mistakes of the past are lingering on.
Currently most of the Commanders on the Jungle Jet are B737 Commanders getting paid the B737 Commander wages.
Virgin Blues resemble the management errors of the old Ansett introduction of the CRJ jets with KD back in 2000-2001, which was in part one of many fatal blows to Ansett.
Obviously the Ansett International debacle from 1996 leaves the door open for the bean counters (no.1 bean counter being Brett Godfrey) at Virgin to learn from....how not to do things.
The big dream for Virgin Branding is of course to link the globe and the Pacific is the last link.
But certainly it has high risk and some not in it's own control.
Brett Godfrey has put away 'some' for a rainy day already but now the market is betting that he won't get much more.
Currently most of the Commanders on the Jungle Jet are B737 Commanders getting paid the B737 Commander wages.
Virgin Blues resemble the management errors of the old Ansett introduction of the CRJ jets with KD back in 2000-2001, which was in part one of many fatal blows to Ansett.
Obviously the Ansett International debacle from 1996 leaves the door open for the bean counters (no.1 bean counter being Brett Godfrey) at Virgin to learn from....how not to do things.
The big dream for Virgin Branding is of course to link the globe and the Pacific is the last link.
But certainly it has high risk and some not in it's own control.
Brett Godfrey has put away 'some' for a rainy day already but now the market is betting that he won't get much more.
This is why Patrick and Toll have been unable to influence the goings on at VB.
Toll are the major shareholder - they must be able to influence the "goings on".
It's minority shareholders who get no say - they are the ones who have the stock available to be bought and sold on the stock exchange.
As Greenslopes so rightly points out VB gives "the perception of being a listed co" but most of the stock is not in play.
It's minority shareholders who get no say - they are the ones who have the stock available to be bought and sold on the stock exchange.
As Greenslopes so rightly points out VB gives "the perception of being a listed co" but most of the stock is not in play.
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Let's all get 2gether & form a non profit airline that pays it's pilots proper wages, or an airline that is owned, run & has the profits returned only to it's staff. Maybe VB would be a good pickup as it has everything in place just that it's going down the toilet like all other business that fail or are showing signs of same, for reasons of money.
Vb seem to be suffering somewhat of a same similar situation to Kendall's did when they introduced the RJ's with Ansett. The training & implementation costs where out the window 'cause of a new type etc.
Now let's start taking aplications for our Non profit Co. Might even get some tax breaks if we fly around for free the right 'shifty' people
CW
Vb seem to be suffering somewhat of a same similar situation to Kendall's did when they introduced the RJ's with Ansett. The training & implementation costs where out the window 'cause of a new type etc.
Now let's start taking aplications for our Non profit Co. Might even get some tax breaks if we fly around for free the right 'shifty' people
CW
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Here's 40 mill!
I reckon I could save VB about 40 million dollars within 3 months by opening up crew bases in large cities where the aircraft currently lay overnite. The total overnite costs to VB is huge when you consider hotel/transport/DTA committments. How many overnites does JQ do for example?
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Get rid of Toll would be a good start for VB, Toll &^%@ everything they touch and only want short term profits and will soon get rid of its shares in VB as the price comes down in value.