Mega Merged: Latest Rex Media Releases re:Routes & the Pilot Shortage
AustralianMade
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K34,
I missed it too Krusty. What is wrong with post #79? And why did you write this in post #78?
As for the crew running across the ramp in the rain, that is less than ideal any way that you look at it.
ABX
Ref previous post #79.
Are we missing something here,
Mods?
Are we missing something here,
Mods?
As for the crew running across the ramp in the rain, that is less than ideal any way that you look at it.
ABX
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running in the rain...common occurance at rex..bet there was no rain coats in the a/c either!!!
the company is a joke, run by muppets who i believe are soon to be out of work...
also i hear a certain base manager in mel is looking at leaving in the very near future!!..(another trainer gone)
the company is a joke, run by muppets who i believe are soon to be out of work...
also i hear a certain base manager in mel is looking at leaving in the very near future!!..(another trainer gone)
Thread Starter
when a regional airline doesnīt pay itīs pilots good enough wages............
Muff Hunter and Krusty34.............
Finn47's Post #13 from on the thread Safety fears as staff shortage hits aviation at Rumours & News sums-up the problem rather well, as follows:
Let's all hope that it doesn't get to that stage at REX. 
Finn47's Post #13 from on the thread Safety fears as staff shortage hits aviation at Rumours & News sums-up the problem rather well, as follows:
Hereīs a good example of what can happen when a regional airline doesnīt pay itīs pilots good enough wages and therefore must employ inexperienced people: a serious incident report by the Finnish AAIB. The captain had 50 hours (!) and the copilot some 80 hours on ATRs (and a whopping total of 365 flight hrs!). They tried to shoot an NDB approach at Seinajoki airport Jan 2007 but forgot to change the altimeter setting, which meant that the plane was flying 950 ft too low. This resulted in 3 EGPWS warnings and go-arounds, one stick pusher warning, one excessive bank angle warning and one configuration warning - and finally, a diversion. The co-pilot had actually NEVER flown an NDB approach at Seinajoki before. Lucky to be alive, poor bastards...
Read all about it, in English here:
http://www.onnettomuustutkinta.fi/43213.htm
Read all about it, in English here:
http://www.onnettomuustutkinta.fi/43213.htm
REX is Australias largest independent regional airline, established in 2002 from the merger of Hazelton and Kendell. REX is the sole provider in the majority of its routes. Airlines are capital intensive and traditionally offered poor returns for investors. Rex effectively holds monopoly position in 60% of its routes, many too small to be profitably serviced by Qantas, Virgin Blue or Jetstar. The dividend payout-ratio is around 30-40%, at the high end given considerable capital requirements. Freefloat is small and share turnover low. Pilot shortages are a great concern.
Event22-Apr-2008
Pilot numbers continue to improve and are now at 94% of ideal levels. Flight cancellations have reduced. Persistent high oil prices have forced REX to increase it fuel surcharge to $33 from $27. Passenger numbers have remained strong. The pilot academy has suffered some setbacks, with delays to flight training postponing graduation by a month or more. Instructor shortages may cause more delays. Negotiations on a new EBA are underway. Pilot wage increases will impact FY09 earnings.
Business Impact: Good load factors and lower maintenance costs indicate a stronger second half result. Cadet progress is slow and justifies our cautious stance. REX believes it will come close to full year earnings guidance but with risks to the downside we maintain more conservative forecasts.
Event Analysis
REX continues to improve pilot numbers with a net gain of nine pilots since December 31, 2007. Pilot numbers are now at about 94% of ideal levels, up 11% from the low-point in September 2007. Attrition is still high but for now is more than matched by recruitment. Flight cancellations have reduced with stabilising pilot numbers. Cancellations were only 0.2% in March, compared to 1.7% in February and over 2% in October last year. Volatility is to be expected and cancellations for April are tracking higher. REX continues to rate well for cancellations compared to other airlines. Figures for February show REX ahead of Virgin Blue (VBA) at 2.9%, QantasLink at 2.4%, Jetstar at 2.1% and Qantas at 1.8%. High oil prices forced REX to increase its fuel surcharge from $27 to $33 over the past couple of months, passing most of the cost increases through to passengers. At this stage passenger numbers remain strong. Costs for competing carriers and other forms of transport are also affected. REX does not have fuel hedges and is fully exposed to rising prices, but turbo-prop aircraft are more fuel efficient than jets. Fuel accounts for around 19% of REXs operating expenses compared to more than 32% for VBA. The price of fuel and falling yields were recently identified by VBA as major concerns, and we expect its expansion to slow. VBA has been a substantial recruiter of REX pilots. The pilot academy has suffered some setbacks. The first intake of cadets finished ground school but were unable to begin flight training due to approval delays. These have now been granted and cadets are flying. A shortage of flying instructors may cause more delays. REX remains hopeful that some cadets will graduate in August, as per the previous schedule, but it is likely most will not graduate until September or later. The second intake of cadets has begun. All up there are 39. A third intake begins following graduation of the first. Delays to flight training are a concern as this is a key solution to the pilot shortage. Mangalore Airport has pulled out of the joint venture pilot academy, implying it is unsatisfied with performance. The academy will continue to be based at Mangalore but REX will take full ownership and control. Negotiations with pilots on a new Enterprise Bargaining Agreement are underway. A decision is expected on June 30 and will impact FY09 earnings. Wages will rise but REX is not in a position to match larger airlines. The result is unlikely to satisfy pilot demands and as such attrition will remain high. REX is in a tough position and would rather carry on with low wages and high attrition than increase wages without certainty attrition will slow. In other news, REX and subsidiary Air Link retained 15 expired Air Transport Licenses for regional NSW. The licenses confer monopoly rights on certain routes and run for five years from March 2008. Interestingly, none of the licenses were contested, indicating competing airlines are not willing or able to service these small regional routes. The share price should be supported by the recently introduced buy-back for up to 12m shares, approximately 10% of total equity or 20% of free float. Share purchases by Executive Chairman Lim Kim Hai also signal the shares are undervalued. These are good signs but we remain wary of the considerable risks facing this company. Load factors have been good for the last couple of months and REX believes it will come close to hitting full year earnings guidance. Engineering and maintenance costs have improved from abnormally high levels in 1H08. In an environment of high fuel costs and pilot shortages, risks are to the downside. We leave our forecasts unchanged for now. Forecast FY08 NPAT is 7% below guidance at $22.0m. FY09 NPAT is $20.7m. Our valuation remains $1.40. Hold.
Event22-Apr-2008
Pilot numbers continue to improve and are now at 94% of ideal levels. Flight cancellations have reduced. Persistent high oil prices have forced REX to increase it fuel surcharge to $33 from $27. Passenger numbers have remained strong. The pilot academy has suffered some setbacks, with delays to flight training postponing graduation by a month or more. Instructor shortages may cause more delays. Negotiations on a new EBA are underway. Pilot wage increases will impact FY09 earnings.
Business Impact: Good load factors and lower maintenance costs indicate a stronger second half result. Cadet progress is slow and justifies our cautious stance. REX believes it will come close to full year earnings guidance but with risks to the downside we maintain more conservative forecasts.
Event Analysis
REX continues to improve pilot numbers with a net gain of nine pilots since December 31, 2007. Pilot numbers are now at about 94% of ideal levels, up 11% from the low-point in September 2007. Attrition is still high but for now is more than matched by recruitment. Flight cancellations have reduced with stabilising pilot numbers. Cancellations were only 0.2% in March, compared to 1.7% in February and over 2% in October last year. Volatility is to be expected and cancellations for April are tracking higher. REX continues to rate well for cancellations compared to other airlines. Figures for February show REX ahead of Virgin Blue (VBA) at 2.9%, QantasLink at 2.4%, Jetstar at 2.1% and Qantas at 1.8%. High oil prices forced REX to increase its fuel surcharge from $27 to $33 over the past couple of months, passing most of the cost increases through to passengers. At this stage passenger numbers remain strong. Costs for competing carriers and other forms of transport are also affected. REX does not have fuel hedges and is fully exposed to rising prices, but turbo-prop aircraft are more fuel efficient than jets. Fuel accounts for around 19% of REXs operating expenses compared to more than 32% for VBA. The price of fuel and falling yields were recently identified by VBA as major concerns, and we expect its expansion to slow. VBA has been a substantial recruiter of REX pilots. The pilot academy has suffered some setbacks. The first intake of cadets finished ground school but were unable to begin flight training due to approval delays. These have now been granted and cadets are flying. A shortage of flying instructors may cause more delays. REX remains hopeful that some cadets will graduate in August, as per the previous schedule, but it is likely most will not graduate until September or later. The second intake of cadets has begun. All up there are 39. A third intake begins following graduation of the first. Delays to flight training are a concern as this is a key solution to the pilot shortage. Mangalore Airport has pulled out of the joint venture pilot academy, implying it is unsatisfied with performance. The academy will continue to be based at Mangalore but REX will take full ownership and control. Negotiations with pilots on a new Enterprise Bargaining Agreement are underway. A decision is expected on June 30 and will impact FY09 earnings. Wages will rise but REX is not in a position to match larger airlines. The result is unlikely to satisfy pilot demands and as such attrition will remain high. REX is in a tough position and would rather carry on with low wages and high attrition than increase wages without certainty attrition will slow. In other news, REX and subsidiary Air Link retained 15 expired Air Transport Licenses for regional NSW. The licenses confer monopoly rights on certain routes and run for five years from March 2008. Interestingly, none of the licenses were contested, indicating competing airlines are not willing or able to service these small regional routes. The share price should be supported by the recently introduced buy-back for up to 12m shares, approximately 10% of total equity or 20% of free float. Share purchases by Executive Chairman Lim Kim Hai also signal the shares are undervalued. These are good signs but we remain wary of the considerable risks facing this company. Load factors have been good for the last couple of months and REX believes it will come close to hitting full year earnings guidance. Engineering and maintenance costs have improved from abnormally high levels in 1H08. In an environment of high fuel costs and pilot shortages, risks are to the downside. We leave our forecasts unchanged for now. Forecast FY08 NPAT is 7% below guidance at $22.0m. FY09 NPAT is $20.7m. Our valuation remains $1.40. Hold.
Has anyone considered that as the airline continues to struggle (all in view of the public eye) that there will be even LESS people applying for jobs (either direct entry or cadet) with REX, further hurting their pilot recruitment.
If you had the choice, and a lot of guys do these days, then surely REX would be down the bottom. Soon you'll have a situation where not only are people leaving the company, but no-one is applying to join!
TL
If you had the choice, and a lot of guys do these days, then surely REX would be down the bottom. Soon you'll have a situation where not only are people leaving the company, but no-one is applying to join!
TL
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REX! hows this for a deal, i have 350++ hrs recreational flying, how about you train me from ab initio, all ill sign on for 5 yrs.! i am willing to pay my own accommodation and food, hows that sound?
oh, and a written guarantee that my wage will be substantially increased, min $70 as FO, and $120K plus when i get command! come to think of it, if you can do that, ill sign for 10 yrs! based in Syd of course!
do we have a deal?
oh, and a written guarantee that my wage will be substantially increased, min $70 as FO, and $120K plus when i get command! come to think of it, if you can do that, ill sign for 10 yrs! based in Syd of course!
do we have a deal?
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In reply to post 88
Interestingly, none of the licenses were contested,....
Who can you trust?!
10-4 out
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Some relos of mine booked a flight out of Mt Gambier to Melb with REX on Saturday 24 th of this month, they just recieved a phone call telling them that their flight was cancelled and would have to travel the day before.
The reason they were given was they had no pilots to do the flight,this they could cope with but what really peed them off was they were charged another $60 each to change their connection out of Melb.I'm sure they wouldn't mind paying a $7 pilot surcharge.
P.s REX you have some serious Pilot retenion issues to sort out,do it now while you still have a business.
Regards The Dog
The reason they were given was they had no pilots to do the flight,this they could cope with but what really peed them off was they were charged another $60 each to change their connection out of Melb.I'm sure they wouldn't mind paying a $7 pilot surcharge.
P.s REX you have some serious Pilot retenion issues to sort out,do it now while you still have a business.
Regards The Dog
Quote:
"Maybe because these routes were less profitable."
Or maybe, as much as an annoyance it may be, the contenders realise that you do in fact need pilots to fly the aircraft.
"Maybe because these routes were less profitable."
Or maybe, as much as an annoyance it may be, the contenders realise that you do in fact need pilots to fly the aircraft.
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Is there really a pilot shortage?
Anyone care to predict how long REX has got before it folds due to pilots shortages?
Just for the record I applied to all majors here in Oz & even both the regionals (REX especially seeing as I can't spell, QF would rather spelling geeks than pilots) not too long ago actually (& I am not the only one that did like wise in my circle of slightly older pilots) & with close to 30 yrs for me in the flying game not one here in OZ ever got back to me.
It doesn't really bother me now & that's a fact 'cause I rarely mention it here or even in convo with friends these days but I still have a somewhat mystical look upon my face when I read the airlines, the numerous news clippings all saying that it's getting almost to desperate levels for pilots!
Nah there's no shortage, it's a Myth.
CW
Anyone care to predict how long REX has got before it folds due to pilots shortages?
Just for the record I applied to all majors here in Oz & even both the regionals (REX especially seeing as I can't spell, QF would rather spelling geeks than pilots) not too long ago actually (& I am not the only one that did like wise in my circle of slightly older pilots) & with close to 30 yrs for me in the flying game not one here in OZ ever got back to me.
It doesn't really bother me now & that's a fact 'cause I rarely mention it here or even in convo with friends these days but I still have a somewhat mystical look upon my face when I read the airlines, the numerous news clippings all saying that it's getting almost to desperate levels for pilots!
Nah there's no shortage, it's a Myth.
CW
Thread Starter
CW.........
Good question...........incredibly well put..........f*cked if I know!
But I'm still sticking with my prediction per post #68 that unless REX management pulls a very BIG rabbit out of the hat very soon to fix the very serious pilot retention 'problem' REX is currently facing, then it'll be curtains for REX before the end of '08.
So unless you believe that there are fairies at the bottom of your garden like the commentators that desmotronic's quoted obviously do CW, then don't even think of jumping ship to REX, because you may just find yourself up to your ar5e in alligators very quickly while you're trying to drain the swamp!
Anyone care to predict how long REX has got before it folds due to pilots shortages?
But I'm still sticking with my prediction per post #68 that unless REX management pulls a very BIG rabbit out of the hat very soon to fix the very serious pilot retention 'problem' REX is currently facing, then it'll be curtains for REX before the end of '08.
So unless you believe that there are fairies at the bottom of your garden like the commentators that desmotronic's quoted obviously do CW, then don't even think of jumping ship to REX, because you may just find yourself up to your ar5e in alligators very quickly while you're trying to drain the swamp!
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REX could be actively engaged in manipulating the flight frequencies on certain city pairs. Cancelling flights, but still moving the same number of passengers.
By blaming the "pilot shortage", they possibly increase the load factors on some routes (namely the underperforming ones..). By cutting out flights they save variable costs, but still get roughly the same income.., because the passengers on these cancelled flights are moved to earlier / later connections.
The passengers are relatively happy because they still get to go where they want to go to, albeit at a different time. And just as they accept the "ever rising fuel surcharges" as inevitable, they tend to accept the "pilot shortage" as a uncontrollable reality. But it is in fact just spin...
This would seem to be rather smart yield management, and it is therefore unlikely that the management can be characterised as "stupid", but rather as "utterly ruthless".
One wonders where the optimum is would be for REX.....; a 1000 sectors a week? 900 perhaps???
Nevertheless, uncontrolled rapid outflow of experienced captains (and trainers) is worrying for the stability of the company. What would be the plan there ... ?
By blaming the "pilot shortage", they possibly increase the load factors on some routes (namely the underperforming ones..). By cutting out flights they save variable costs, but still get roughly the same income.., because the passengers on these cancelled flights are moved to earlier / later connections.
The passengers are relatively happy because they still get to go where they want to go to, albeit at a different time. And just as they accept the "ever rising fuel surcharges" as inevitable, they tend to accept the "pilot shortage" as a uncontrollable reality. But it is in fact just spin...
This would seem to be rather smart yield management, and it is therefore unlikely that the management can be characterised as "stupid", but rather as "utterly ruthless".
One wonders where the optimum is would be for REX.....; a 1000 sectors a week? 900 perhaps???
Nevertheless, uncontrolled rapid outflow of experienced captains (and trainers) is worrying for the stability of the company. What would be the plan there ... ?
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then don't even think of jumping ship to REX
Agreed. It is a great question - how long will she last? Or will the gaping hole (that being denial) of this sinking ship be plugged at the last hour??
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The DENIAL will continue while management all wander around with their ugly heads up each others bums and say:
"REX is in a tough position and would rather carry on with low wages and high attrition than increase wages without certainty attrition will slow"
Please CH, JD etc... you are reasonably clever people that can add up???? Pull your heads out and wash your faces
The cadet program, with all the effort will prove that FO's can be provided to the company at $42K (plus costs of training previously not endured, all for the sake of the 42K FO) - after all the FO position is ultimately a the final part of your "apprenticeship" as a pilot wishing for a career with the company.
Those at the head of our company and our union please tell me how you can continue to undervalue a captain at just over $70K - the writings on the wall. For the sake of the companies future come to the realisation that many leaving our company do not want to - many would dearly like to continue a career with REX, myself included. But a base of 90K will be necessary for most of us to justify our projected future financial position.
FO's can be kept cheap, so long as they know if they choose a career then in the long run they will be justified in staying. Ultimately these will be young players and a large proportion of them will always want a turbine without a gearbox
throwing any extra money at them will not ultimately make any difference for the company. Not providing a long term career will.
Oh, but CH will proudly state that there is not hard data to justify these increases and give certainty the hard data is already in front of you 
, the existing methods of keeping wages low do provide certainty... certaintly that nobody will take a career with REX seriously.
Lawrie, I would really hope that you are reading these posts. It would be nice to hear what you have to say. For I have paid my fees for some time and supported my union. And now we have silence in the moments before our EBA is due for renewal?
"REX is in a tough position and would rather carry on with low wages and high attrition than increase wages without certainty attrition will slow"
Please CH, JD etc... you are reasonably clever people that can add up???? Pull your heads out and wash your faces
The cadet program, with all the effort will prove that FO's can be provided to the company at $42K (plus costs of training previously not endured, all for the sake of the 42K FO) - after all the FO position is ultimately a the final part of your "apprenticeship" as a pilot wishing for a career with the company.
Those at the head of our company and our union please tell me how you can continue to undervalue a captain at just over $70K - the writings on the wall. For the sake of the companies future come to the realisation that many leaving our company do not want to - many would dearly like to continue a career with REX, myself included. But a base of 90K will be necessary for most of us to justify our projected future financial position.
FO's can be kept cheap, so long as they know if they choose a career then in the long run they will be justified in staying. Ultimately these will be young players and a large proportion of them will always want a turbine without a gearbox
throwing any extra money at them will not ultimately make any difference for the company. Not providing a long term career will.Oh, but CH will proudly state that there is not hard data to justify these increases and give certainty
the hard data is already in front of you , the existing methods of keeping wages low do provide certainty... certaintly that nobody will take a career with REX seriously.Lawrie, I would really hope that you are reading these posts. It would be nice to hear what you have to say. For I have paid my fees for some time and supported my union. And now we have silence in the moments before our EBA is due for renewal?
Last edited by wethereyet; 13th May 2008 at 13:32.
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Quote Timber
[Quote]"REX could be actively engaged in manipulating the flight frequencies on certain city pairs. Cancelling flights, but still moving the same number of passengers.
By blaming the "pilot shortage", they possibly increase the load factors on some routes (namely the underperforming ones..). By cutting out flights they save variable costs, but still get roughly the same income.., because the passengers on these cancelled flights are moved to earlier / later connections."[Quote]
BINGO !!!!!!!!
[Quote]"REX could be actively engaged in manipulating the flight frequencies on certain city pairs. Cancelling flights, but still moving the same number of passengers.
By blaming the "pilot shortage", they possibly increase the load factors on some routes (namely the underperforming ones..). By cutting out flights they save variable costs, but still get roughly the same income.., because the passengers on these cancelled flights are moved to earlier / later connections."[Quote]
BINGO !!!!!!!!
I must admit Timber, your defence of REX management is somewhat slicker than your predecessors.
Quote:
"One wonders where the optimum is would be for REX.....; a 1000 sectors a week? 900 perhaps???"
Straight out of the REX manual for dealing with this crisis. Shrink the business during a period of unprecedented growth, and then have the gall to put a positive spin on it.
Quote:
"The passengers are relatively happy because they still get to go where they want to go to, albeit at a different time."
Try selling that to the young mother holding a baby, who's flight has been cancelled and is unable to get home. She is told by distressed dispatch staff that even though she has little money, no contacts in Sydney, and nowhere to stay, she must come back tommorrow or the day after to be rebooked! And then these same dedicated staff have to go home and try to sleep after what they have been forced to do. How well do you sleep at night Timber?
And finally.
Quote:
"This would seem to be rather smart yield management, and it is therefore unlikely that the management can be characterised as "stupid", but rather as "utterly ruthless".
"utterly ruthless", I couldn't agree more. But your assertion that this is somehow a positive trait in this mess, is endorseing their treatment of the pilot group and travelling public alike. Now that's "stupid"
We're all entitled to our opinion Timber. But IMHO you are either a mangement stooge, or you have absolutely no idea of the real damage being done to REX.
Quote:
"One wonders where the optimum is would be for REX.....; a 1000 sectors a week? 900 perhaps???"
Straight out of the REX manual for dealing with this crisis. Shrink the business during a period of unprecedented growth, and then have the gall to put a positive spin on it.
Quote:
"The passengers are relatively happy because they still get to go where they want to go to, albeit at a different time."
Try selling that to the young mother holding a baby, who's flight has been cancelled and is unable to get home. She is told by distressed dispatch staff that even though she has little money, no contacts in Sydney, and nowhere to stay, she must come back tommorrow or the day after to be rebooked! And then these same dedicated staff have to go home and try to sleep after what they have been forced to do. How well do you sleep at night Timber?
And finally.
Quote:
"This would seem to be rather smart yield management, and it is therefore unlikely that the management can be characterised as "stupid", but rather as "utterly ruthless".
"utterly ruthless", I couldn't agree more. But your assertion that this is somehow a positive trait in this mess, is endorseing their treatment of the pilot group and travelling public alike. Now that's "stupid"
We're all entitled to our opinion Timber. But IMHO you are either a mangement stooge, or you have absolutely no idea of the real damage being done to REX.
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REX could be actively engaged in manipulating the flight frequencies on certain city pairs. Cancelling flights, but still moving the same number of passengers.
Management have told people they would prefer no cancellations at all.
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Management have told people they would prefer no cancellations at all.
Lets face it, managment have made all types of claims but I have yet to see a statement put forward by them that illustrates they have any idea of what's about to happen. But my God, they sure can put a positive spin on just about anything can't they!?!
"Everythings heading to the crapper, but that's ok; We have the situation in hand. And the pilot shortage - what pilot shortage? The ABC mentioned something about it the other day - just another angle to work with: when we cancel flights, we'll blame the pilot shortage. And when the pilots want more money - we can't afford it - because we cancelled flights...!
We got the clowns folks (and the monkeys so it seems), we just need a tent and an elephant!
YEEHAAA10-4 out
Last edited by tenfouroldmate; 14th May 2008 at 12:20. Reason: typo?
