Virgin Blue To Operate Embraer's On Albury-Sydney Route.

[NIGELINOZ]

Just read in the Albury newspaper the Border Mail that Virgin Blue will begin
operating it's new 78 seat Embraer jets on the Albury-Sydney route as from the new year.
They will of course be competing with Qantas and Rex for passengers on this route and as I am not employed in the industry I would appreciate the
views of those who are as to whether there is room on this sort of rpt route for a third operator,or and here's something to think about could
V Blue be positioning itself for a partial takeover offer for Rex?
I'll be interested to read your views,many thanks.

[forgetabowdit]

My view... well all i reckon is that regardless of the news, I bet they would have liked to announce it themselves rather than the local rag doing the job!
Love it!

Virgin to buy rex! Sh%t i hope not... Not even virgin has enough money to loose trying to turn that sinking ship around... unless they are to shut it down...

ok, im being a w@nker now, ill stop it

[Going Boeing]

QLink's obvious response would be to put Q400's on the Albury - Sydney route

Can anyone with access to performance data of both the EJ170 and Q400 work out the estimated flight times? I believe that the difference would be in the order of 5 minutes.

It would leave REX's SAABs out in the cold wrt flight time and seating capacity.

[NIGELINOZ]

My next question is why V Blue have apparently ruled out competing against Rex on the Albury-Melbourne run.Not being in the industry I find
it strange that Rex is the only airline that flies Albury-Melbourne,Qantas
flies Melbourne-Albury but not the other way.
Surely there would be enough "feeder traffic" out of Melbourne to places
like Adelaide,Perth etc for a low cost carrier such as V Blue to make a
return on the Albury-Melbourne-Albury run?
But as I say I'm not employed in the industry,just a student pilot.but I am
interested in hearing about the economics of rpt routes like this.

[Kiwiconehead]

Qantas
flies Melbourne-Albury but not the other way.

Nope - only MEL-ABX flights are in the winter when they can't get into Hotham. MEL-ABX and bussed to Hotham. They do heaps of Sydney to Albury.

Back in the good ol' Southern days the question of Melbourne - Albury used to come up often but the reply was that the numbers never worked.

[NIGELINOZ]

Nope - only MEL-ABX flights are in the winter when they can't get into Hotham. MEL-ABX and bussed to Hotham. They do heaps of Sydney to Albury

Thanks, Kiwiconehead,My mistake.

[chainsaw]

To be fair to 'the local rag' (the Border Mail), it's front page story was about a $6M Albury airport terminal upgrade 'as Virgin set to announce new service'. I guess that the Border Mail felt it's........umm...........'premature announcement' was fair game under the circumstances.

The article also went on to say Virigin Blue headquarters in Brisbane refused to comment yesterday (Monday) but chief executive Brett Godfrey is apparently set to make an official announcement on Friday.

Source:
http://www.bordermail.com.au/frontpage/?date=30/10/2007 and also at
http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/bm/local/993998.html

The Border Mail article included information that Albury is:

among the first to emerge a winner from 20 possible regional centres from Emerald to Devonport that are being considered by Virgin Blue.

Going Boeing's pretty much spot on the money I'd say with the estimate of time difference between EJ170 and Q400 (provided of course that the Q400 overcomes it's recent u/c problems..........but that's another story) leaving REX with some pretty big problems in putting its SAAB340s into direct competition with EITHER of those aircraft types. So, 'yes', Albury and it's SLF are both winners from the point of view of choice of EJ170, Q400and SAAB340 aircraft on the SYD - ABX route, provided REX decide to remain a competitor!

[Mr. Hat]

The turbo prop killer..

[grrowler]

Q400 vs E170

Three words - Jet Like Speed....
Passengers won't even tell the difference

[Capt Basil Brush]

Three words - Jet Like Speed....

Unless the Q400 has a normal cruise speed of M.78 (450 - 470kts depending on alt etc) its pure false advertising.

Although I think the early Citation's only did 350 or 360kts, so they could be right in that case.

[Roost]

Q400 vs EMB

PAX sees PROPS

-

PAX jumps on JET

[Mr.Buzzy]

Garbage...... PAX see price!

bbbbbbbbbzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzbbbbbbbbbbbbbbzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zz

[43Inches]

Does speed matter when congestion forces you to minimum cruise speed and hold at BIK.
It will be interesting however to see what schedule and frequency VB operates on this route.

[grrowler]

Pax see price?

Of course this is generally true. However most people I know would pay an extra few bucks for either - 1. the novelty of the "big jet" that's now flying into their thriving country town, 2. the perceived added safety of the jet over the "twin cessna", or 3. the ability to through book bags to their final destination. Whether the premium people are prepared to pay is enough to make the operation successful remains to be seen.

[SM4 Pirate]

Does speed matter when congestion forces you to minimum cruise speed and hold at BIK.

Jungle jets won't be holding at BIK

[THE ORACLE]

The Oracle

Profitability (meaning long term success) in all regional markets requires the right combination of both schedule frequency and ticket price. Although historically Albury was services by Ansett Express flying F28's, they did so on a single route licence with a combination of expensive fares (compared to today) and poor frequency.
Today Eastern and REX provide excellent frequency and very competitive fares. So if DJ wants to play, strategically they are going to have to either offer the same price and service or on a reduced schedule (compared to the competitors) attempt to 'cherry pick' the morning and evening 'business commuter' peak loads and then redeploy the aircraft for the rest of the day. The EMB170 and Q400 cost about the same ($23-24Mill (USD) each) to purchase or finance and regardless of the business strategies, will need to be deployed into ports where they can eventually turn a profit! The stage length SYD-ABX is too short to justify a Jet unless the operator either has a monopoly or in a competitive market, can carry near full loads with comparatively high ticket prices.
Due to the combination of a short stage length (for Jet operations), manoeuvring requirements of SID's and STARs and the perennial en-route speed reductions and holding requirements associated with ABX-SYD the time difference between Jet and Prop (Q400 and Saab) will ultimately not be great enough to defeat the other customer expectations of price and frequency.
Until the market finds it's own level all this will make for an interesting 'ride' for all concerned!!

[Mr. Hat]

and the difference is that VB will actually have crews to operate the service....they'll be familliar with it to having operated it in formr lives with eaa or rex.

the end is near

[Normasars]

Buzzy
Touche. Give that man a cigar

P.S. How's Mrs Buzzy and Jnr Buzzy?
Ggrowler,
People I know will vote with their wallets. And do you really think pax look at these a/c as "twin cessnas"? Give me a break. These types ie DHC8 and SB340 have been servicing regional OZ very successfully and reliably for years.The pax are a little more savvy than you give them credit for.
With Interest rates going north and the price of crude at record levels,and the obvious flow on effects this has to EVERYTHING, now more than ever, it will be a "price centsative" market. They will book the cheapest fair possible.

[FoxtrotAlpha18]

Three words - Jet Like Speed....
Passengers won't even tell the difference

Except in SYD where you exit via an aerobridge from the Embraer, while the Q400 pax have to 'Dash' across the tarmac.

[ABX]

Dang, didn't get to see the 'Albury Sun' yesterday. Looks like I've got some reading to do.

I hope we do see Q or VB doing ABX-MEL one day.