Qantas needs takeover to survive - CAPA report
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Qantas needs takeover to survive - CAPA report
An interesting article about QANTAS's future from the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation . . . as reported by today's Airline Transport World.
ATW Daily News
CAPA: Qantas needs takeover to survive
Friday January 12, 2007
The ambitious $11.1 billion ($8.64 billion) buyout bid from Airline Partners Australia to take Qantas private will succeed, according to the Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, if only because the consequences of failure "are too grotesque to imagine."
Speaking yesterday to ATWOnline, Executive Chairman Peter Harbison said, "If the deal is knocked back, there would be a massive loss of confidence and the share market would bail out of the stock, sending the share price below last year's lows."
He warned that Qantas is a child of regulation and its strength will wither as liberalization increases. "This is an international trend and beyond the control of the Australian government, even if it wanted to prevent change. In the face of this evolutionary process, Qantas would be lucky to survive another 10 years in its current form," Harbison predicted. "It would contract into a domestic airline and eventually be taken over by one of the post-2010 multinational airlines."
He believes the Australian Stock Exchange, conditioned to quarterly reporting, does not understand the long-term nature of the airline market or Qantas's international profile. That lack of understanding was reflected this week in a poll that found a majority of Australians did not want the buyout to proceed because they falsely believed Qantas is either government-controlled or 100% Australian-owned. ATWOnline also discovered that some Qantas employees did not understand that the airline already is 49% foreign owned.
"The [APA] investors may be money-hungry, but stupid they are not. They see the international emerging opportunities in much the same light as Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon does," Harbison said.
Yesterday Qantas shares had their busiest day since 2004 (when British Airways sold its 18.25% stake), with more than 100 million changing hands as investors seemed happy to bail out at A$5.29 rather than wait several months for the deal to be approved and getting A$5.60. The airline's largest single shareholder, US-based fund manager Capital Group, reduced its stake to 10.4% from 11.6% between Dec. 28 and Jan. 4, according to The Australian.
by Geoffrey Thomas
ATW Daily News
CAPA: Qantas needs takeover to survive
Friday January 12, 2007
The ambitious $11.1 billion ($8.64 billion) buyout bid from Airline Partners Australia to take Qantas private will succeed, according to the Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, if only because the consequences of failure "are too grotesque to imagine."
Speaking yesterday to ATWOnline, Executive Chairman Peter Harbison said, "If the deal is knocked back, there would be a massive loss of confidence and the share market would bail out of the stock, sending the share price below last year's lows."
He warned that Qantas is a child of regulation and its strength will wither as liberalization increases. "This is an international trend and beyond the control of the Australian government, even if it wanted to prevent change. In the face of this evolutionary process, Qantas would be lucky to survive another 10 years in its current form," Harbison predicted. "It would contract into a domestic airline and eventually be taken over by one of the post-2010 multinational airlines."
He believes the Australian Stock Exchange, conditioned to quarterly reporting, does not understand the long-term nature of the airline market or Qantas's international profile. That lack of understanding was reflected this week in a poll that found a majority of Australians did not want the buyout to proceed because they falsely believed Qantas is either government-controlled or 100% Australian-owned. ATWOnline also discovered that some Qantas employees did not understand that the airline already is 49% foreign owned.
"The [APA] investors may be money-hungry, but stupid they are not. They see the international emerging opportunities in much the same light as Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon does," Harbison said.
Yesterday Qantas shares had their busiest day since 2004 (when British Airways sold its 18.25% stake), with more than 100 million changing hands as investors seemed happy to bail out at A$5.29 rather than wait several months for the deal to be approved and getting A$5.60. The airline's largest single shareholder, US-based fund manager Capital Group, reduced its stake to 10.4% from 11.6% between Dec. 28 and Jan. 4, according to The Australian.
by Geoffrey Thomas
I wouldn't take much notice of anything that is spouted by Harbison or APA. They are clearly a mouth piece for almost all airline management in the region. Don't forget afterall most airlines in the region pay them a fee for their services.
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CAPA.....credibility = zero
I had the pleasure ( last week ) of going into and out of KUL's "new" LCC ( low cost carrier terminal ) due to the fact that I was flying with Air Asia.
I was amazed to see a giant banner hanging in the Departures hall saying that:
KLIA- LCC Terminal voted the BEST in the world
Then you see who was the people who voted it as " Best"......
CAPA.
......you are kidding me.!!!!!!
Me (cynically) thinks the CEO of Air Asia ( Fernando?? )could have thrown in a few gratis Air Asia junkets??
I was amazed to see a giant banner hanging in the Departures hall saying that:
KLIA- LCC Terminal voted the BEST in the world
Then you see who was the people who voted it as " Best"......
CAPA.
......you are kidding me.!!!!!!
- its overcrowded.
- Toilets are putrid and stink accordingly.
- Food outlets ( 1x Mc Donalds-packed, 1 x dingy coffee shop -where I found a grub in my tuna / lettuce salad !! )
- No aerobridges.....walk /herded out to your Aircraft like cattle in the pouring rain to a free seating AC.
- Wait in queues at Immigration and Air Asia check in -in excess of 30/40 min for each.
- Staff treat pax with woeful indifference.
- Its one of the worse terminals I've been in ( and I've been in a few !!! )
Me (cynically) thinks the CEO of Air Asia ( Fernando?? )could have thrown in a few gratis Air Asia junkets??
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Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation . . . is that like the Pedestrian Council of Australia - a one man operation run by a SIF (Single Issue Fanatic) with little or no real world knowledge or experience. Or am I being unfair?
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And it is probably sponsored by Qantas mate..
If you look down the bottom of the report it probably says editorial staff when on holidays and business choose to fly Qantas the Australian overseas airline
If you look down the bottom of the report it probably says editorial staff when on holidays and business choose to fly Qantas the Australian overseas airline
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Dont you love it
when the self appointed experts come out and provide their invaluble advise to everyone who wants to listen. unfortunatly their are enough incompetent journalist around who think this is gospel. they fail to do their own research and lack the basic knowledge of the industry. peter harbison is supporter of an open aviation policy with no restrictions. there i only one problem wih it, it does not exist, anywhere. his comments once again underlines his misjudgement of the current international situation. globalisation will force some airlines to merge but to make the prediction that Qants cannot survive beyond 10 years in its current form does cleary point to his lack of understanding of Qantas. the numerous changes which have been made in the last 10 years since privatisation as well as future changes as announced by GD. i wonder how many upgrades he gets from SQ. 
BTW QF has a fair market value of A$ 5.38.
BTW QF has a fair market value of A$ 5.38.
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Doh !
Its like being the best "nose picker" in the World according to the Guiness Book of records.
THERE IS ONLY ONE !
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I know it's been asked before but if it was answered I must have missed it....who is Peter Harbison?......where did he learn whatever it is that he knows or claims to know? he may well be right about QF but credible credentials would surely add some weight and balance to an evaluation of his outpourings.
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Reading his commentaries over the year's, he appears to be (IMHO) 75-80%
wrong/off target most of the time. Lets hope this trend continues, but from the ACPA -
http://www.centreforaviation.com/avi...054&Itemid=646
wrong/off target most of the time. Lets hope this trend continues, but from the ACPA -
http://www.centreforaviation.com/avi...054&Itemid=646
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mmmm, yes he may be wrong but the track record of a couple of the "take-overees" is indisputable... a good record at that, in the aviation field.
I'm not comfortable with the windfall some of the QF management will recieve with it all... having been part of the white rat b4 but the "Equity buyouts" are moving around the world.
I'm still deciding whether to sell or not but if BA and other major overseas holders have sold off their part, it shows a cash-out mentality (ie no greater price to be reached... the deal won't go ahead)... but if it does go ahead, the value to be realised may be far greater and hence the Equity Groups second attempt at outright ownership.
I'm not comfortable with the windfall some of the QF management will recieve with it all... having been part of the white rat b4 but the "Equity buyouts" are moving around the world.
I'm still deciding whether to sell or not but if BA and other major overseas holders have sold off their part, it shows a cash-out mentality (ie no greater price to be reached... the deal won't go ahead)... but if it does go ahead, the value to be realised may be far greater and hence the Equity Groups second attempt at outright ownership.
Last edited by Chocks Away; 13th Jan 2007 at 10:31.
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Dome you are correct.
Having worked with Harbison in the past your description sums it up with complete eloquence.
Target fixated to the enth degree, and totally blinded by ritz and glitz...... but what do you expect from a lawyer.
Target fixated to the enth degree, and totally blinded by ritz and glitz...... but what do you expect from a lawyer.
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There are a couple of these types kicking around here aren't there.
How could it be that taking on a huge level of debt would be the only thing to save Qantas?
It is simple economics that quite the opposite is true, particularly when the next SARS or September 11 comes along and the small cash reserves of the LBO firm dries up
It is simple economics that quite the opposite is true, particularly when the next SARS or September 11 comes along and the small cash reserves of the LBO firm dries up
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Actually, a 1.3 Daihatsu. But I do know that SIFs (like Harold Scruby from the "PCA") are blinded by a single issue - you too? Harold's earlier single issue was Ausflag - remember that - when that stopped hitting the headlines up pops the Pedestrian Council of Australia. Wonder what's next.
This is a hijack of the thread I know - but in particular, look at the wikipedia entry for the PCA (and the "neutrality dispute" part).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Scruby
This is a hijack of the thread I know - but in particular, look at the wikipedia entry for the PCA (and the "neutrality dispute" part).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Scruby
Last edited by DOME; 18th Jan 2007 at 22:39. Reason: extra
