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The coming decline of Aviation

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Old 7th Jul 2006, 23:07
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Devil The coming decline of Aviation

For interest have a read of the July issue of Airways or go to the following link which has a copy of the article as well - http://www.airliners.net/articles/read.main?id=81

The article also reflects the the statements made by Peter Gregg (Qantas Chief Financial Officer) who stated in the Bulletin Magazine (20/07/2005) that “the airline is “one of the best hedged” airlines in the world, with 60% cover until mid-2006. But he warns Qantas’ fuel costs will be “$1.2bn higher” in 2005-06 than in 2004-05 at a US$60 a barrel oil price. “The industry in total can’t make profit with oil at $US60 a barrel.”
So what of that $US100-a-barrel oil price? Gregg sees airlines disappearing at such a level: “At the end of the day, $US100 is not sustainable. Plainly, there will have to be some consolidation.”The only winners would be oil-rich nations that own airlines: “The countries that own the oil will increasingly take over the industry,” Gregg says. Airlines such as Dubai-based Emirates would be “very well placed” (Note – they have ordered 45 of the new Airbus 380!!!).But for carriers who do not have the luxury of endless oil reserves at their disposal, the apocalypse may not be far away.

Currently an Australian Senate Inquiry is looking at the issue of the coming oil supply issues and what it means for Australia. ABC 4 Corners on Mon night (Jul 10) also covers the issue. The term Peak Oil has been covered in all Australian and International newspapers, National Geographic, Time Magazine, spoken about by the US President, former Presidents etc. If you think technology will save the day - you better research the how it will and you will be quite amazed at how far away we are from having anything even close to the enegry efficiency of oil - and at the end of the day technology has not overcome the fact that the last year we discovered more oil than we used was back in the 1960's! Makes one think doesn't it!!! Hand on for a very interesting ride over the coming years and if you work in aviation - start thinking about alternative employment!
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Old 7th Jul 2006, 23:23
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Awaiting the "Scaremonger!" denialists to post ...
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 00:09
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People still gotta get from place to place!

She'll be right mate!

Aussie
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 00:26
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A certain high-level executive friend of mine (no names for obvious reasons) in the Singapore petrochemical industry warned me several weeks ago that by the end of 2007, and possibly mid-2007), the price of oil WILL reach...... US$140-150 per barrell.

This allies pretty well with the extensive, verifiable data from the Peak Oil proponents.

Life After the Oil Crash
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 00:58
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I think I raised this topic about a year ago and was chased off as one of those scaremongerers. My observation is that opinion is probably changing.

But so is mine.

A lot of the price escalation now is to do with traders artificially pushing up the price. I mean really, pushing it up $4 a barrel over North Korea? Come on. Pull the other one. It is very much in OPEC's favour to talk up all these crisis - and Bush actually plays along. That I don't get.

If you don't think there is some huge profiteering going on at the moment you would be very nieve. Each little rise is usually the traders testing the resistance level.

I have little doubt that Peak Oil is a reality, and in fact there a lot of positives out of it - but not for the airline industry, and not in it's current cut throat guise. Have airfares ever been so cheap? Isn't that an obvious solution? How much travel is purely arbitrary? Quite a bit if websites like wotif are any indication.

Just 2 weeks ago the Chairman of BP was suggesting realisitc oil prices at the moment are around $40-45 USD a barrel. Now whay would a compnay that stands to lose profits from a drop in the oil price say things like that? To reign in the traders perhaps? And stop the development of alternative energy sources like Ethanol too quickly becoming a viable competitor?

The obscenity of it all, is that with the introduction of good quality alternative energy sources like Ethanol, Australia could probably be energy self sufficient with it's oil and gas reserves for about 100 years, and not have to compete in this global energy market where the US which accounts for 5% of the worlds population uses 25% of the worlds oil. I mean, the yanks actually burn the stuff to produce electricity! And each year here in Australia, our local fuel price goes up because of the "US Driving Season", and the "US Gulf Hurricane Season"!? Please....! Some fat arsed US Redneck wants to pack their family in to a 5.0l Chevy 4WD and visit all the drive thru Taco Bells and Burger Kings on a road trip from Toothpick, Arkansas to TrailerTown, Lousiana to and we take a 10c a litre hit in Australia? Bush got one thing right in his state of the union address - "The US is addicted to Foreign Oil".

And Australia is paying for it.

One thing I don't get with Greggs little piece - where are these Gulf State A380's all going to fill up when they get to the end of their sector? Is he suggesting that the other countries are going to charge the same price to an oil-subsidised carrier when it lands in LAX , LHR or SYD for this precious resource? I don't think so. Makes a mockery of the global market doesn't it?

----

EDIT: Edited due arithmetic embarrassment (kudos to NFR )

Last edited by Shitsu_Tonka; 8th Jul 2006 at 10:11.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 01:31
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Oil costs US$1.70 a barrel to produce.

Go figure.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 03:26
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****su_tonka------you forgot to mention "bum f k idaho" for us driving holidays
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 03:42
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Gotta agree with you ****su, re the profiteering.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 03:42
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****su_Tonka: I agree with your post 100%.
However:
where the US which accounts for 1% of the worlds population
Since when had the world's population reached 30 Billion?
Cheers,
NFR.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 04:13
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Devil

Interesting to read some of the comments thus far - in depth research is needed before throwing out an unresearched comment i.e. in relation to ethanol - have a look at some of the submissions to the senate enquiry - here's is a quote from a State Govt in regard to ethanol -
  1. Bio-fuels are feasible and important but are most unlikely to be abundant enough or cheap enough to replace petrol, as Australians have known it. For instance, if all of Australia's wheat crop was converted to ethanol, it would only replace some 9-10% of our current oil needs. Converting a vital major food source entirely into fuel is neither practical, nor morally defensible.
Further to the original post, readers may be interested in a recent US Department of Energy (DOE) report into the issue of peak oil. The authors testimony to the US HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY
states that "The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. A recent
analysis for the DOE focused on what might be done to mitigate the peaking of world oil production. It became abundantly clear that effective mitigation will be dependent on the implementation of mega-projects and mega-changes at the maximum possible rate. A scenario analysis was performed, based on crash program implementation worldwide – the fastest humanly possible. The timing of oil peaking was left open because of the considerable differences of opinion among experts. The results were startling: Unless a mitigation crash program is started 20 years before peaking occurs, the economic consequences will be dire. Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, because motor vehicles, aircraft, trucks, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not for the existing capital stock, which has lifetimes measured on a decade scale.
The world has never confronted a problem like peak oil. Since it is
uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decision-makers is vexing. Mustering support for an approaching, invisible disaster is much more difficult than for one that is obvious. We would like to believe that the optimists are right about peak oil being a distant problem, but the risks of error are beyond imagination".

The issue for aviation is simple - all economic forecasts are based on an ever increasing supply of oil, rather than an ever increasing gap between production and demand. Forecasts by several economists now have oil anywhere between $100 - $270 barrel in the coming years, terms such as "demand destruction" are becoming common. Given a large amount of air travel is based on discretionary spending and this is reducing already for the common person, how will increasing fuel costs affect the average person? Have a read of recent work done by Griffith University in relation to Oil Vulnerability in the Australian Cities.......an eyeopener..... how far do you think the food at supermarket has travelled and how much oil/energy has gone into its production - wait to these costs are passed on, because at present very little has! For every calorie of food you eat, approx 10 calories of fossil fuel equivilent energy has gone into its production - makes one realise how vunerable our society to not having access or capability to obtain cheap oil! If discretionary travel reduced to 10% of current levels what would this mean for airfares - hence the comments from Qantas CFO in my original post - the writing is on the wall.

A recent US Army report also highlights the forecast difficulties of maintaining fuel in a future where demand outstrips supplies. So many people prefer to stick their head in the sand and not research the issue seriously, or simply think technology will save us - have a read of what the CSIRO has to say and other Government Departments, then understand what our Government policy is on managing a fuel emergency - you will be surprised - if you can't afford it - tough.......!
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 04:33
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Still plenty of coal that can be used for recip fuel and steam for ships.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 05:25
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Devil

Coal is an option to convert it to synfuel in the medium term (not short term). CSIRO point sout to the Senate Inquiry that "The situation with the production of synfuel from coal (CtL) is a somewhat different. The key issue here is, . compared to natural gas, the process produces more greenhouse gas emissions., However, the reserves of coal are much larger than the reserves of gas, particularly in America. It seems highly probable that CtL processes will be optimised in America. In this case, the research needs must be focused on adjusting processes to meet the use of Australian coals. CSIRO is already active in this field, working with coal gasification and clean up of syngas prepared from Australian coals. Once syngas is produced and cleaned, the conversion to synfuel will follow the same line as GtL. As a result, additional in-depth research is unlikely to be required".

Geoscience Australia state that "As with the conventional fuels referred to above, each alternative transport fuel has advantages and disadvantages. Important considerations include adequacy of resources and sustainability of production, full life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, other emissions, OH&S effects, cost and weight of storage, modifications to existing infrastructure and engines. Some of these processes themselves consume considerable amounts of energy to convert or store energy into a usable form, so the net energy gain from conversion to a convenient and practical form of transport fuel may be small. Australia has very significant black and brown coal resources (Geoscience Australia 2005). The resource life of accessible economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of black coal (40.3 Gt) is greater than 100 years at current rates of production. The resource life of accessible EDR of brown coal of 30.0 Gt is close to 450 years. Australia has 5% of the world’s recoverable black coal EDR and ranks sixth behind USA (20%), China (13%), India (12%) and South Africa (7%). It produced about 7% of the world’s black coal in 2004 and ranked fourth after China (37%), USA (22%) and India (8%). Australia has about 24% of the world’s brown coal EDR and is ranked number one in this category. Australia produces about 8% of the world’s brown coal and is the fifth largest producer after Germany (22%), Russia (10%), USA (9%) and Greece (8%).
There is potential to convert black or brown coal to diesel fuel using a number of different processes. Conversion of Latrobe Valley brown coal to diesel has been proposed using the Fischer-Tropsch gas-to-liquids technology. Between 1985 and 1990 the Brown Coal Liquefaction (Victoria) Pty Ltd pilot plant trial (50 tonne/day) of the liquefaction of Victorian brown coals was carried out by a consortium of Japanese companies. A two-stage hydrogenation process was used". However can we scale this up to provide for a large amount of our transport industry fuel - there is not a chance we could even provide for our current liquid fuel daily demand in Australia using coal to synfuel technology!!

When looking at alterntive fuels it is crucial to consider the energy invested vs the energy returned.......

The real issue then becomes how much coal can be converted to liquid fuel every day (we need 800,000 barrels a day minimum and this needs to increase to over 1 200 000 barrels per day out to 2029-30.


This forecast represents a sustained increase of almost 2% annually until 2029-30. On a simplistic analysis out to 2009, the Australian production estimates for crude oil and condensate represent only 63% of the forecast Australian demand for oil. As projections of production rates suggest they will decline after 2009, the shortfall in domestic demand versus domestic supply is anticipated to increase significantly.

Happy research!
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 10:25
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Devil Peaking, BP (Lord Browne) and Shale Oil

Peaking
It is important to recognize that oil production peaking is not “running out.” Peaking is the maximum oil production rate, which typically occurs after roughly half of the recoverable oil in an oil field has been produced. What is likely to happen on a world scale will be similar to what happens with individual oil fields, because world production is by definition the sum total of production from all of the world’s oil fields.

Shale Oil
A recent study performed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves advocates a research and development program with a production goal of two million barrels per day from shale oil by 2020. While the U.S. has a huge resource of shale oil that could be processed into substitute liquid fuels, the technology to accomplish that task is not now ready for deployment. Given we currently burn over 84 million barrels of oil a day shale oil with its lengthy processes will never come close to meeting current demand, let alone future demands.

Lord Browne - BP
Russia is the world's No. 2 crude exporter after Saudi Arabia. Its supplies, which go mainly to Europe, cover more than a quarter of the continent's oil needs. It also has 28% of the worlds available reserves of gas. Companies wishing to make an acquisition, avoid windfall taxes or deter Russian expropriations have every good reason to try to talk down the price of oil.

As mentioned earlier in another post, "Lord Browne, the chief executive of oil firm BP, has said he expects crude prices to fall from current near-record levels as more supplies are discovered. However Lord Browne, speaking in an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, said there was not likely to be any dip in prices in the short term. He said prices will probably settle at an average of about $40 a barrel in the medium term, before falling lower.... Lord Browne said that companies were finding large oil deposits in the Caspian Sea, while there was good production potential in countries such as Russia and regions including Western Africa. He also said that improved efficiency would help boost crude extraction. 'In the past we managed to get out 20% to 30%,' Lord Browne said. 'At the moment it's maybe 40% to 45%. I can see no reason why we could not reach 50% or 60%.'

The price of oil may indeed fall as Lord Browne suggests if economic collapse from soaring prices leads to a reduction in demand. But adding sufficient new world supply is not plausible in view both of the forty-year trend of declining discovery, which is hardly likely to change direction, and the increasing desire of countries, led by Russia & Venezeula, to conserve their resources for their own needs. Apparent improved recovery is more an artefact of reporting than a technological dynamic. Field developments tend to occur in steps, with the reserves of each being properly reported as committed, giving the illusion of reserve growth. The amazing technological advanced have served mainly to hold production higher for longer, which makes more money, without adding much to the amounts recoverable, as amply demonstrated in many giants fields. Besides, sucking a few extra barrels out of a field may extend its life, but is unlikely to affect the critical peak rate of production.

Meanwhile, BP has published the 2006 Edition of its Statistic Review of World Energy which is widely, but wrongly, taken as an authoritative source of data coming from an experienced and knowledgeable oil company. It is important therefore to note the key qualification stated in the following footnote
Statistics published in this Review are taken from government sources and published data. No use is made of confidential information obtained by BP in the course of its business.

BP’s position is entirely understandable as it once had to withdraw the publication even after it had been printed under pressure from an important host government which did not wish it to reveal the truth. The most glaring distortions in the BP Reserve data are for the OPEC countries, which are reporting about double the amount likely to be extracted from known fields, but in some other cases, such as the United Kingdom, the estimates are under-reported.

Do the research, use sources like CSIRO, DOE, Geoscience Australia, US House of Reps, The current Australian Senate Inquiry, go and look at Chevron Texaco's website http://www.willyoujoinus.com/ - there are numerous, numerous sources of data to understand and be informed - research all angles for yourselves......

After 7 years of researching this issue it is to serious to ignore. People buy insurance in case their house catches fire, where is the insurance for this issue - particulary if you are in the aviation industry which is so vunerable to the price of oil.....watch this space over the coming 2 years and watch more airlines go bankrupt, merge.........as the QANTAS CFO acknowleged when it gets to expensive we will be all out of a job - unless you work for Emirates or suchlike!!
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 11:03
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Qantas will revert to government ownership within five years.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 18:02
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Someone has been reading Matt Simmons' book, 'Twilight in the Desert'.

Heavy going, but it dove-tails well with Prechter's book, 'Tidal Wave'.

Rough ride ahead.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 22:13
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When are the airlines Especially the "Q" going to stop the 'woa is us' bleeting every time there is a increase in the oil prices. These increases effect ALL of us not just THEM, but you and I are not able to hedge against these ( as the "Q" has done ) and increase fuel levies every time the price of a barrel of oil goes up. We cannot approach our employers and get an increase in wages to compensate for increase fuel prices but we still have to drive our cars to work.
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Old 8th Jul 2006, 23:17
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Quote-

"Qantas will revert to government ownership within five years."

The question is, who's government.......?
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Old 9th Jul 2006, 00:52
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Sasol and the Chinese Government seem to know something that the CSIRO doesn't.They've just signed an agreement to construct two coal-to-liquid conversion plants in Northern China.Each plant will produce 80000 barrels of oil per day at a cost of $40 per barrel.I suppose Governments can do this kind of thing when they are not owned by BIG OIL.
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Old 9th Jul 2006, 01:53
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Interesting point, re Chinas' surge in demand qfcainer and it goes along with a 4 Corners (Aust) exspose' on the topic, 6 months back.
It was mentioned that their demand was only for the short term, as they are investing heavily on more advanced energy sources, choosing not to go the standard "fosil fuel" course of all western countries, ie jump some steps closer to totally alternative energy cars etc.
Pollution is still massive there but over to someone in China, for an update on their good intentions, I guess...

Here, here Airbornespanner
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Old 9th Jul 2006, 05:35
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when will airlines wake up to themselves and start selling tickets at prices that will earn a profit???? price of oil goes up. so does the ticket price, just as it does in every other industry.
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