The coming decline of Aviation

[CaptR]

For interest have a read of the July issue of Airways or go to the following link which has a copy of the article as well - http://www.airliners.net/articles/read.main?id=81

The article also reflects the the statements made by Peter Gregg (Qantas Chief Financial Officer) who stated in the Bulletin Magazine (20/07/2005) that “the airline is “one of the best hedged” airlines in the world, with 60% cover until mid-2006. But he warns Qantas’ fuel costs will be “$1.2bn higher” in 2005-06 than in 2004-05 at a US$60 a barrel oil price. “The industry in total can’t make profit with oil at $US60 a barrel.”
So what of that $US100-a-barrel oil price? Gregg sees airlines disappearing at such a level: “At the end of the day, $US100 is not sustainable. Plainly, there will have to be some consolidation.”The only winners would be oil-rich nations that own airlines: “The countries that own the oil will increasingly take over the industry,” Gregg says. Airlines such as Dubai-based Emirates would be “very well placed” (Note – they have ordered 45 of the new Airbus 380!!!).But for carriers who do not have the luxury of endless oil reserves at their disposal, the apocalypse may not be far away.

Currently an Australian Senate Inquiry is looking at the issue of the coming oil supply issues and what it means for Australia. ABC 4 Corners on Mon night (Jul 10) also covers the issue. The term Peak Oil has been covered in all Australian and International newspapers, National Geographic, Time Magazine, spoken about by the US President, former Presidents etc. If you think technology will save the day - you better research the how it will and you will be quite amazed at how far away we are from having anything even close to the enegry efficiency of oil - and at the end of the day technology has not overcome the fact that the last year we discovered more oil than we used was back in the 1960's! Makes one think doesn't it!!! Hand on for a very interesting ride over the coming years and if you work in aviation - start thinking about alternative employment!