The coming decline of Aviation
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404 Titan
“The reality is most wars over the past 100 years have been caused by religion and racial tensions, not oil.”
As duff man pointed out, all leaders will exploit religious belief in order to motivate the masses to engage in violence but there is generally an agenda at stake too complex to be understood by those perpetuating the violence. It is no coincidence that Bush initially coined the phrase “just crusade” when referring the attack on Afghanistan in 2001.
Peak oil is driving the foreign policy objectives of most industrialized countries for a number of reasons such as refinery costs, extraction points and transport routes, choke points, oil bourse’s and oil marker’s and currency denomination. Most of these issues are difficult to explain with a 10 second Fox News Channel sound bite so instead we are led to believe that Iraq posed an imminent threat to the US, Iran alone is fuelling the violence in the Middle East and that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of reaching the American heartland. Only when we as consumers become compliant and accept what our leaders are telling us can the violence begin.
“. . . Nor was it to steal their oil as some conspiracy theorist would have you believe. It was a regime change pure and simple to create another US and Western ally in the region that will guarantee oil supply in the future. .”
The invasion of Iraq will benefit the US and its allies in many ways but they did not embark on this “crusade” to simply steal oil.
“. . . and won’t be a threat to Israel.”
I agree with you that Israel is a particularly powerful force behind US intentions in the Gulf.
Capt R,
“The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia”
Central Asia, namely the gas fields on the Caspian, will be where the next Russian/Chinese/American chess game will be played. Take a look at where the permanent US bases in Iraq have been built and how close to Baku they are and a greater understanding of the Iraq war will develop.
Iraq, Iran, Syria and North Korea are simply small chess pieces.
The US current account deficit and the emergence of china as a threat to US dollar hegemony are the real game.
“The reality is most wars over the past 100 years have been caused by religion and racial tensions, not oil.”
As duff man pointed out, all leaders will exploit religious belief in order to motivate the masses to engage in violence but there is generally an agenda at stake too complex to be understood by those perpetuating the violence. It is no coincidence that Bush initially coined the phrase “just crusade” when referring the attack on Afghanistan in 2001.
Peak oil is driving the foreign policy objectives of most industrialized countries for a number of reasons such as refinery costs, extraction points and transport routes, choke points, oil bourse’s and oil marker’s and currency denomination. Most of these issues are difficult to explain with a 10 second Fox News Channel sound bite so instead we are led to believe that Iraq posed an imminent threat to the US, Iran alone is fuelling the violence in the Middle East and that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of reaching the American heartland. Only when we as consumers become compliant and accept what our leaders are telling us can the violence begin.
“. . . Nor was it to steal their oil as some conspiracy theorist would have you believe. It was a regime change pure and simple to create another US and Western ally in the region that will guarantee oil supply in the future. .”
The invasion of Iraq will benefit the US and its allies in many ways but they did not embark on this “crusade” to simply steal oil.
“. . . and won’t be a threat to Israel.”
I agree with you that Israel is a particularly powerful force behind US intentions in the Gulf.
Capt R,
“The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia”
Central Asia, namely the gas fields on the Caspian, will be where the next Russian/Chinese/American chess game will be played. Take a look at where the permanent US bases in Iraq have been built and how close to Baku they are and a greater understanding of the Iraq war will develop.
Iraq, Iran, Syria and North Korea are simply small chess pieces.
The US current account deficit and the emergence of china as a threat to US dollar hegemony are the real game.
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oicur12, have you been reading "Future: Tense" by Gwynne Dyer? His thesis makes the same point on US CAD and USD hegemony. A recommended read!
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'Virgin Fuel'?!?
Came across this story recently... Its from 17/11/2005 but has some interesting points...
INTERVIEW - Branson's Virgin to Go Green for Jet Fuel
DUBAI - Tired of skyrocketing jet fuel prices, Virgin Atlantic Airways boss Richard Branson said on Wednesday he plans to turn his back on hydrocarbons and use plant waste to power his fleet.
"We are looking for alternative fuel sources. We are going to start building cellulosic ethanol plants (to make) fuel that is derived from the waste product of the plant," he told Reuters in an interview in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE).
"It is 100 percent environmentally friendly and I believe it's the future of fuel, and over the next 20 or 30 years I think it actually will replace the conventional fuel that you get out of the ground."
Branson did not say where Virgin would build his factories or how economically viable cellulosic ethanol would prove. "We are in the early days," he admitted.
He said cellulosic ethanol "is the biproduct you get from the waste product (of plants), the bits in the field that get burned up," as opposed to ethanol which is produced from fruit or corn for example.
Branson was in Dubai, a booming trade and tourism hub in the UAE, to promote a daily service between London and Dubai that Virgin plans to launch in March 2006.
He also said two Gulf Arab rulers had asked him to set up Virgin space flights in their countries, but gave no detail.
The ethanol idea is part of Branson's broader plans to cut Virgin's fuel bill. In September, he said he was looking at building a conventional oil refinery in a bid to ease a global shortage of refined fuel, including jet fuel.
GOING GREEN
In early September, Virgin raised its fuel surcharge on tickets sold in Britain to 30 pounds ($55.4) after oil prices touched $70 per barrel in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Price have since retreated to below $60 per barrel.
Branson's Virgin Group has a 51 percent stake in Virgin Atlantic as well as interests in Virgin Cargo, Virgin Nigeria and Australia's Virgin Blue. He said the combined fleet was almost 100 aircraft.
"We use around 700 million gallons of fuel a year between the four airlines. I hope that over the next 5 to 6 years we can replace some or all of that (with ethanol)."
Branson said the launch of the Dubai flight would pave the way for more Virgin brands to enter the Gulf Arab states, which are witnessing an economic boom on the back of high oil prices.
"I'm sure Virgin will expand into some other areas. Hotels is certainly the vision that we are exploring, if we can find the right site...Financial services is certainly a possibility."
Branson opened a Virgin Megastore outlet in Dubai on Wednesday but he ruled out a move into cellphones in the region.
Virgin Atlantic will compete against Emirates airline on the London-Dubai route.
Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, chairman of Emirates, is also head of Dubai's civil aviation authority, but Branson dismissed suggestions that Emirates had an unfair edge.
"I think Dubai is one of the most open, pro-competitive countries there is. We didn't have to ask for permission to come here, they just let us come and compete," Branson said. "This region is expanding rapidly. My belief is that Emirates in 50 years time will be around, I think Virgin Atlantic will be around, let's see about the others," he said when asked about state-owned Qatar Airways and Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways.
And for cars...
June 29, 2006: In a first for an Australian car manufacturer, GM Holden today announced it would begin applying an "E10 suitable" label to its imported vehicles from July 1, 2006. Holden's decision to include its imported vehicle range supports the Prime Minister's target to achieve 350 megalitres of biofuels consumption by 2010.
INTERVIEW - Branson's Virgin to Go Green for Jet Fuel
DUBAI - Tired of skyrocketing jet fuel prices, Virgin Atlantic Airways boss Richard Branson said on Wednesday he plans to turn his back on hydrocarbons and use plant waste to power his fleet.
"We are looking for alternative fuel sources. We are going to start building cellulosic ethanol plants (to make) fuel that is derived from the waste product of the plant," he told Reuters in an interview in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE).
"It is 100 percent environmentally friendly and I believe it's the future of fuel, and over the next 20 or 30 years I think it actually will replace the conventional fuel that you get out of the ground."
Branson did not say where Virgin would build his factories or how economically viable cellulosic ethanol would prove. "We are in the early days," he admitted.
He said cellulosic ethanol "is the biproduct you get from the waste product (of plants), the bits in the field that get burned up," as opposed to ethanol which is produced from fruit or corn for example.
Branson was in Dubai, a booming trade and tourism hub in the UAE, to promote a daily service between London and Dubai that Virgin plans to launch in March 2006.
He also said two Gulf Arab rulers had asked him to set up Virgin space flights in their countries, but gave no detail.
The ethanol idea is part of Branson's broader plans to cut Virgin's fuel bill. In September, he said he was looking at building a conventional oil refinery in a bid to ease a global shortage of refined fuel, including jet fuel.
GOING GREEN
In early September, Virgin raised its fuel surcharge on tickets sold in Britain to 30 pounds ($55.4) after oil prices touched $70 per barrel in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Price have since retreated to below $60 per barrel.
Branson's Virgin Group has a 51 percent stake in Virgin Atlantic as well as interests in Virgin Cargo, Virgin Nigeria and Australia's Virgin Blue. He said the combined fleet was almost 100 aircraft.
"We use around 700 million gallons of fuel a year between the four airlines. I hope that over the next 5 to 6 years we can replace some or all of that (with ethanol)."
Branson said the launch of the Dubai flight would pave the way for more Virgin brands to enter the Gulf Arab states, which are witnessing an economic boom on the back of high oil prices.
"I'm sure Virgin will expand into some other areas. Hotels is certainly the vision that we are exploring, if we can find the right site...Financial services is certainly a possibility."
Branson opened a Virgin Megastore outlet in Dubai on Wednesday but he ruled out a move into cellphones in the region.
Virgin Atlantic will compete against Emirates airline on the London-Dubai route.
Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, chairman of Emirates, is also head of Dubai's civil aviation authority, but Branson dismissed suggestions that Emirates had an unfair edge.
"I think Dubai is one of the most open, pro-competitive countries there is. We didn't have to ask for permission to come here, they just let us come and compete," Branson said. "This region is expanding rapidly. My belief is that Emirates in 50 years time will be around, I think Virgin Atlantic will be around, let's see about the others," he said when asked about state-owned Qatar Airways and Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways.
And for cars...
June 29, 2006: In a first for an Australian car manufacturer, GM Holden today announced it would begin applying an "E10 suitable" label to its imported vehicles from July 1, 2006. Holden's decision to include its imported vehicle range supports the Prime Minister's target to achieve 350 megalitres of biofuels consumption by 2010.
Last edited by skyshow; 16th Jul 2006 at 06:19.
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Fuel/Oil.
From a book I am presently reading :Aircrew by Bruce Lewis, a Cassell Military Paperback.
In 1943/44, Germany was producing Synthetic Fuels and Oils, from its Wesseling production facility.
Q: Would anyone know why this is not done, or why Governments are not looking at this.
I do not know the costs of producing the likes, but one would think it would have to be a favourable alternative at $ 70 per barrel?.
HSnort
In 1943/44, Germany was producing Synthetic Fuels and Oils, from its Wesseling production facility.
Q: Would anyone know why this is not done, or why Governments are not looking at this.
I do not know the costs of producing the likes, but one would think it would have to be a favourable alternative at $ 70 per barrel?.
HSnort
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Duffman,
I have not read that book. A good source of info is “The Dollar Crisis” by IMF consultant Richard Duncan.
He points out how the abandonment of the dollar standard in the early seventies resulted in a quantum shift in global economic dynamics that have resulted in huge current account deficit problems in countries such as Australia and the US. Such deficits have been manageable until the arrival of the Euro and the alternatives it will provide oil producing countries such as Iran, KSR and Venezuela. The shadow plays we see around these countries have little to do with WMD, human rights or even access to oil.
The two biggest issues facing us in the coming decades are global warming and the collapse of US dollar hegemony. Such a collapse will re write the traditional rules regarding global geo politics with conflict being an inevitable by product.
I fear that Israel’s foray into Lebanon this week is merely the commencement of US attempts to draw Iran into a proxy war with Israel.
This could get very interesting.
I have not read that book. A good source of info is “The Dollar Crisis” by IMF consultant Richard Duncan.
He points out how the abandonment of the dollar standard in the early seventies resulted in a quantum shift in global economic dynamics that have resulted in huge current account deficit problems in countries such as Australia and the US. Such deficits have been manageable until the arrival of the Euro and the alternatives it will provide oil producing countries such as Iran, KSR and Venezuela. The shadow plays we see around these countries have little to do with WMD, human rights or even access to oil.
The two biggest issues facing us in the coming decades are global warming and the collapse of US dollar hegemony. Such a collapse will re write the traditional rules regarding global geo politics with conflict being an inevitable by product.
I fear that Israel’s foray into Lebanon this week is merely the commencement of US attempts to draw Iran into a proxy war with Israel.
This could get very interesting.
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Originally Posted by LewC
They've just signed an agreement to construct two coal-to-liquid conversion plants in Northern China.Each plant will produce 80000 barrels of oil per day at a cost of $40 per barrel.
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Pricey Oil Will Take Airlines Down - Business Week Magazine
"A wing, a lot of loans, and a prayer" (Finance, June 13) is a good overview of the structure, complexities, and risks of the U.S. Airways -America West deal, but there's one enormous sword hanging over the airline industry that wasn't mentioned: fuel costs. Recently the head of the International Air Transport Assn. said that based on $47 per barrel oil, the industry will lose $6 billion this year. Almost no one is predicting any reduction in oil prices within the next two years, and there's a quickly growing consensus that we may have already entered the era of permanently expensive oil. (Yes, I'm referring to the Hubbert's curve of peak oil production that is just starting to get widespread attention.)
I think it's clear that, barring any stunning technological advancement, we're seeing the beginning of not just a downsizing and realignment of the airline sector but its complete transformation into a much-higher-priced, lower-volume boutique industry. For the sake of those who are employed in that industry, I hope I'm wrong.
The above article can be found at http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...1146_mz030.htm
I think it's clear that, barring any stunning technological advancement, we're seeing the beginning of not just a downsizing and realignment of the airline sector but its complete transformation into a much-higher-priced, lower-volume boutique industry. For the sake of those who are employed in that industry, I hope I'm wrong.
The above article can be found at http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...1146_mz030.htm
Grandpa Aerotart
CaptR in the 70s oil shock a barrel of oil was more expensive than now in inflation corrected $...about $100/barrel.
In those days jet engines were nowhere near as fuel miserly as now...and yet the airline system didn't grind to a halt.
Just recently I have heard several talking heads from the US futures markets suggest that $20-30/barrel is the current 'we are scared' premium...or more accurately the 'make hay while the sun shines premium' attributable to North Korea and the ME.
What NK, Isreal or Lebanon have to do with the price of a barrel of oil escapes me at this minute.
That leaves $12-20 per barrel as the premium we are paying for the current supply problems.
The current price of a barrel of crude has NOTHING to do with Hubert's Peak or Peak Oil...the clamering paranoia of the Doomsayers is a direct result of the current price though....and will die away to a murmur when oil again falls to historically average prices.
Do you honestly think western Govts will let the international travel infrastructure implode because of the greed of the futures markets?
How many Trillions would be wiped from the various Bources worldwide if International travel collapses under a raft of airline bankruptcies caused by greedy futures traders?
If oil was currently at $40/barrel because of the current supply and demand issues we wouldn't be having these doomsayer predictions... all the rest of the current price/barrell is manipulation by the market. Even 'the market' admits that in a indirect way.
In those days jet engines were nowhere near as fuel miserly as now...and yet the airline system didn't grind to a halt.
Just recently I have heard several talking heads from the US futures markets suggest that $20-30/barrel is the current 'we are scared' premium...or more accurately the 'make hay while the sun shines premium' attributable to North Korea and the ME.
What NK, Isreal or Lebanon have to do with the price of a barrel of oil escapes me at this minute.
That leaves $12-20 per barrel as the premium we are paying for the current supply problems.
The current price of a barrel of crude has NOTHING to do with Hubert's Peak or Peak Oil...the clamering paranoia of the Doomsayers is a direct result of the current price though....and will die away to a murmur when oil again falls to historically average prices.
Do you honestly think western Govts will let the international travel infrastructure implode because of the greed of the futures markets?
How many Trillions would be wiped from the various Bources worldwide if International travel collapses under a raft of airline bankruptcies caused by greedy futures traders?
If oil was currently at $40/barrel because of the current supply and demand issues we wouldn't be having these doomsayer predictions... all the rest of the current price/barrell is manipulation by the market. Even 'the market' admits that in a indirect way.
For all the Dooms Dayers
What your argument fails to come to terms with is it doesn’t take into account the economic effects of continued high oil prices. These are some quotes I made from D&G General Aviation & Questions from a similar thread that was running there:
One has to wonder why those that peddle this whole Peak Oil Dooms day scenario completely ignore the whole economic side of the equation. Could it be that some that have been spreading these fears are actually fronts for agendas being pushed by the very loud environmental lobby groups around the world? What I would like to know is who is funding these people and organisations that have conducted studies and made remarks about Peak Oil especially in the last six to twelve months? And where were these people back in 2002 when oil was USD$22.00 a barrel. It all seems too convenient that they have just now decided to speak out.
What your argument fails to come to terms with is it doesn’t take into account the economic effects of continued high oil prices. These are some quotes I made from D&G General Aviation & Questions from a similar thread that was running there:
Economics 101 says there is a fundamental flaw in your and the whole dooms day scenario argument. As demand increases and supply decreases prices rise, yes. But only to a point and that point is fast approaching. If there was a reduction in supply as you would argue this will only speed up the inevitable. Once consumers incomes can’t absorb the ever increasing fuel prices and everything else that goes with it anymore, demand for everything not just fuel will collapse taking the price of oil with it. If you don’t believe me have a look at history. It’s all happened before. And the worst effected countries are usually the emerging markets, i.e. China, India etc.
It is also worth pointing out that the longer oil prices remain high the more the pressure is on to find more oil and alternative fuels. While the use hybrid vehicles and the use of such fuels as natural gas and bio fuels in road transport, which is by far the greatest consumer of oil, is commendable, it is in my opinion only a stop gap measure. I believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
It is also worth pointing out that the longer oil prices remain high the more the pressure is on to find more oil and alternative fuels. While the use hybrid vehicles and the use of such fuels as natural gas and bio fuels in road transport, which is by far the greatest consumer of oil, is commendable, it is in my opinion only a stop gap measure. I believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
If the price climbs too much it will break the back of the consumer and a recession will follow. Prices are not entirely based on how much of the black stuff there is in the ground but how much the consumer is prepared to pay for it. It is becoming quite obvious that that time is fast approaching. It is widely accepted that high oil prices have the same effect on world economies as high interest rates. You can’t just keep jacking them up and not expect something to give. With both of them rising the limbs at the end of the branch are starting to look awfully thin indeed.
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Chimbu,
“In those days jet engines were nowhere near as fuel miserly as now...and yet the airline system didn't grind to a halt.”
No, it didn’t. But the industry was not flush with excess capacity then like it is today, in fact, quite the opposite.
“What NK, Israel or Lebanon have to do with the price of a barrel of oil escapes me at this minute.”
They have a great deal to do with Oil.
The moves recently made by Israel into Lebanon were not in response to the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. It is a battle that has been planned for years and is the beginning of a wider agenda (It is no coincidence that large shipments of additional JDAMS arrived in Israel in recent months). A key objective of the current crisis in the region is the reconstruction of the Mosul Haifa oil pipeline. Success would ensure US/EU access to Iraqi light sweet crude via relatively safe ports in the Mediterranean instead of relying on extracting oil from the Persian Gulf via the critical straights of Hormuz. It is no coincidence also, that the anti Syrian rhetoric has been ratcheted up in recent weeks as regime change in that country is required in order for the plan to go ahead (moderate Jordan has refused to allow the pipeline to pass through its borders).
Lebanon is being used to provide justification for a longer term proxy confrontation with (Syria and) Iran for reasons more to do with oil and gas than with nuclear weapons. It may or may not succeed.
North Korea is in the gun sights of Washington as it is to become a key player in the proposed oil/gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Shanghai. Missiles are to NK as WMD are to Iraq, a simple justification used to scare the public into consent.
All over the world, western foreign policy is occupied almost exclusively with the looming crisis over energy - access to it, control of it, pricing of it and ensuring it can be used as an instrument of control over ones enemies in Somalia, Colombia, South East Asia, North Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe.
The point I am making here is that we are watching new wars unfold in front of our eyes for reasons that make little sense (Sep 11 / WMD / Missiles) unless you factor in natural resources. If there is so much oil out there then why is my Government and probably yours spending so much money fighting for it.
Chimbu, do you know something they don’t?
“Do you honestly think western Govts will let the international travel infrastructure implode because of the greed of the futures markets?”
Do you honestly think the US Government will stand by and watch China gain total control of oil and gas reserves in Central Asia and the Gulf States in order to prevent harming the “international travel infrastructure”? I doubt it.
“In those days jet engines were nowhere near as fuel miserly as now...and yet the airline system didn't grind to a halt.”
No, it didn’t. But the industry was not flush with excess capacity then like it is today, in fact, quite the opposite.
“What NK, Israel or Lebanon have to do with the price of a barrel of oil escapes me at this minute.”
They have a great deal to do with Oil.
The moves recently made by Israel into Lebanon were not in response to the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. It is a battle that has been planned for years and is the beginning of a wider agenda (It is no coincidence that large shipments of additional JDAMS arrived in Israel in recent months). A key objective of the current crisis in the region is the reconstruction of the Mosul Haifa oil pipeline. Success would ensure US/EU access to Iraqi light sweet crude via relatively safe ports in the Mediterranean instead of relying on extracting oil from the Persian Gulf via the critical straights of Hormuz. It is no coincidence also, that the anti Syrian rhetoric has been ratcheted up in recent weeks as regime change in that country is required in order for the plan to go ahead (moderate Jordan has refused to allow the pipeline to pass through its borders).
Lebanon is being used to provide justification for a longer term proxy confrontation with (Syria and) Iran for reasons more to do with oil and gas than with nuclear weapons. It may or may not succeed.
North Korea is in the gun sights of Washington as it is to become a key player in the proposed oil/gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Shanghai. Missiles are to NK as WMD are to Iraq, a simple justification used to scare the public into consent.
All over the world, western foreign policy is occupied almost exclusively with the looming crisis over energy - access to it, control of it, pricing of it and ensuring it can be used as an instrument of control over ones enemies in Somalia, Colombia, South East Asia, North Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe.
The point I am making here is that we are watching new wars unfold in front of our eyes for reasons that make little sense (Sep 11 / WMD / Missiles) unless you factor in natural resources. If there is so much oil out there then why is my Government and probably yours spending so much money fighting for it.
Chimbu, do you know something they don’t?
“Do you honestly think western Govts will let the international travel infrastructure implode because of the greed of the futures markets?”
Do you honestly think the US Government will stand by and watch China gain total control of oil and gas reserves in Central Asia and the Gulf States in order to prevent harming the “international travel infrastructure”? I doubt it.
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Let us assume that the Devil does exist and he is to gain control of the human race, then what better way should he do so than the control of the limited resource of this planet we know as oil.
Give it to us, suck us into the dependancy and then as a highlight of universal torment slowly take it slowly away from us.
As we explore the alternates to the Devils gift we are faced with Global damage due to the alternatives.
We have abundant supply of coal and other resources but every resolved grain comes at a cost to ouir deminishing enviroment.
Uranium as we know distroys our human cellure activity given its limited control behavior.
We have the technogology to sustain our current insatiable desire for energy but all at a cost.
I'm sure the Devil is laughing
Give it to us, suck us into the dependancy and then as a highlight of universal torment slowly take it slowly away from us.
As we explore the alternates to the Devils gift we are faced with Global damage due to the alternatives.
We have abundant supply of coal and other resources but every resolved grain comes at a cost to ouir deminishing enviroment.
Uranium as we know distroys our human cellure activity given its limited control behavior.
We have the technogology to sustain our current insatiable desire for energy but all at a cost.
I'm sure the Devil is laughing
Grandpa Aerotart
oicur12 the arabs have been trying to undo Isreal for 65 years...this is just the latest in a long line of attempts.
What is going on in the ME is arab extremists hanging on to power the way all extremists hang on to power...by instilling fear in the people within their sphere of influence...namely the Lebanese and Palestinians.
Lebanon is a classic example...a beautiful place re building after a horrendous war...and now runed again...interestingly I saw some Lebanese interviewed this evening on CNN up in the mounains away from the fighting. Well healed and well educated young Lebanese...asked who was at fault they mentioned Syria, Iran and the leaders of Hezbolah...not Israel.
While the extremists can maintain the violence and point at Israel as the instigator they maintain power. If true detent is allowed to flourish and dialogue replaces guns and rockets the extremists lose their power.
For 65 years every attempt to crush Isreal has failed dismally...you'd think the arabs would work it out by now and give up...I think the average arab in the streets would live happily side by side with the Isrealis given half a chance...but they won't be given that chance and it isn't Israel's fault.
Israel is a fact...it will never go away. What many in the west seem to have forgotten is sometimes you just have to fight. Israel has never had a long enough period of peace to be allowed to forget this.
While western politicians talk of 'measured' or 'proportional' response the Isrealis know that is just a good way to get more people killed.
Hezbolah exists only to see the State of Israel destroyed. That can only mean one thing...all Israelis killed. Interesting that all the arabs ever seem to achieve is lots of dead arabs.
Like all extremists power is all that counts...not the lives of the people they purport to represent.
I personally find it difficult to find Israel's response out of proportion...65 years of being attacked with no other motive than your utter destruction would leave all of us a bit hair triggered.
65 years the arabs have been trying this on....it's got feckall to do with oil.
Everyone wants the same things in life...food, shelter and education and the chance for a better life for their children. Doesn't matter whether you are Jewish, Arab, Iranian. Syrian, British or Australian.
Everyone except the leaders of Hezbolah, Al asqa and the PLO...among others. They just want power.
What is going on in the ME is arab extremists hanging on to power the way all extremists hang on to power...by instilling fear in the people within their sphere of influence...namely the Lebanese and Palestinians.
Lebanon is a classic example...a beautiful place re building after a horrendous war...and now runed again...interestingly I saw some Lebanese interviewed this evening on CNN up in the mounains away from the fighting. Well healed and well educated young Lebanese...asked who was at fault they mentioned Syria, Iran and the leaders of Hezbolah...not Israel.
While the extremists can maintain the violence and point at Israel as the instigator they maintain power. If true detent is allowed to flourish and dialogue replaces guns and rockets the extremists lose their power.
For 65 years every attempt to crush Isreal has failed dismally...you'd think the arabs would work it out by now and give up...I think the average arab in the streets would live happily side by side with the Isrealis given half a chance...but they won't be given that chance and it isn't Israel's fault.
Israel is a fact...it will never go away. What many in the west seem to have forgotten is sometimes you just have to fight. Israel has never had a long enough period of peace to be allowed to forget this.
While western politicians talk of 'measured' or 'proportional' response the Isrealis know that is just a good way to get more people killed.
Hezbolah exists only to see the State of Israel destroyed. That can only mean one thing...all Israelis killed. Interesting that all the arabs ever seem to achieve is lots of dead arabs.
Like all extremists power is all that counts...not the lives of the people they purport to represent.
I personally find it difficult to find Israel's response out of proportion...65 years of being attacked with no other motive than your utter destruction would leave all of us a bit hair triggered.
65 years the arabs have been trying this on....it's got feckall to do with oil.
Everyone wants the same things in life...food, shelter and education and the chance for a better life for their children. Doesn't matter whether you are Jewish, Arab, Iranian. Syrian, British or Australian.
Everyone except the leaders of Hezbolah, Al asqa and the PLO...among others. They just want power.
oicur12
You know I prefer to live by the K.I.S.S. principal. That explanation is so far out there that it would make a cheap “B” grade novel or some over hyped, trashy Hollywood flick look great by comparison. My parents are very good lifelong friends with a very prominent Australian diplomat who will remain anonymous and I recall asking him a few years ago about all the conspiracy theories regarding the Middle East, 911 etc and he said quote “The conspiracy theorists usually have an opinion and underlying agenda which is opposite to the true cause of the event”. My advice is keep it simple and the truth will usually stare you in the face.
You know I prefer to live by the K.I.S.S. principal. That explanation is so far out there that it would make a cheap “B” grade novel or some over hyped, trashy Hollywood flick look great by comparison. My parents are very good lifelong friends with a very prominent Australian diplomat who will remain anonymous and I recall asking him a few years ago about all the conspiracy theories regarding the Middle East, 911 etc and he said quote “The conspiracy theorists usually have an opinion and underlying agenda which is opposite to the true cause of the event”. My advice is keep it simple and the truth will usually stare you in the face.
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Titan 404, most political analysts would agree that the the reason conflict occurs is extremely complex and often has many root causes that allow conflict to occur when such causes compliment each other. Such is the case with the Arab/Israeli conflict. It is not something for which the KISS principle applies and suggesting that unclear motives such as natuaral resources are at play does not a conspiracy theory make. I too saw an interview with a Lebanese couple pointing the blame toward Iran but by far most people interviewed on BBC and CNN have had just a little beef with Israel.
The Professor
I’m sorry but most political analysts wouldn’t know what was really going on in the political world if it came up and bit them on the bum. This also applies with foreign diplomacy and the politics that goes with it. What tends to be the overriding driver of most countries foreign policy, and this is straight from the same Australian diplomat I mentioned before, is to strengthen their own economies and therefore the living conditions and prosperity of their citizens. Obviously lobby groups have a part to play here and can be seen in some countries foreign policies.
What is going on with Israel and the other Middle Eastern countries is the same as what has been going on for the last 2000 years. The Arabs hate the Jews and the Jews hate the Arabs. This was complicated by the creation of the Jewish state of Israel after the Second World War. Some Arab counties stated aim is to destroy the Jewish state. All we are seeing is Israel defend itself. It is nothing more, nothing less. It certainly isn’t the part of a wider agenda to draw Syria or Iran into the conflict as some may espouse, but if they should choose to become more involved than what they currently are by supporting Hezbollah, then so be it. I doubt though it will play out that way.
I ask you, what do you think Australia would do if a Terrorist organisation in Indonesia had rocket technology that could reach most Australian capitals and they started using them? After all we are part of the Western Infidels that they wish to destroy. We certainly wouldn’t sit by and let them kill our citizens. We would defend ourselves. That is exactly what Israel is doing.
Most wars are started by a very simple set of circumstances. Conspiracy theories have surrounded almost all wars for the last couple of hundred years but once looked back on are usually proved to be wrong.
I’m sorry but most political analysts wouldn’t know what was really going on in the political world if it came up and bit them on the bum. This also applies with foreign diplomacy and the politics that goes with it. What tends to be the overriding driver of most countries foreign policy, and this is straight from the same Australian diplomat I mentioned before, is to strengthen their own economies and therefore the living conditions and prosperity of their citizens. Obviously lobby groups have a part to play here and can be seen in some countries foreign policies.
What is going on with Israel and the other Middle Eastern countries is the same as what has been going on for the last 2000 years. The Arabs hate the Jews and the Jews hate the Arabs. This was complicated by the creation of the Jewish state of Israel after the Second World War. Some Arab counties stated aim is to destroy the Jewish state. All we are seeing is Israel defend itself. It is nothing more, nothing less. It certainly isn’t the part of a wider agenda to draw Syria or Iran into the conflict as some may espouse, but if they should choose to become more involved than what they currently are by supporting Hezbollah, then so be it. I doubt though it will play out that way.
I ask you, what do you think Australia would do if a Terrorist organisation in Indonesia had rocket technology that could reach most Australian capitals and they started using them? After all we are part of the Western Infidels that they wish to destroy. We certainly wouldn’t sit by and let them kill our citizens. We would defend ourselves. That is exactly what Israel is doing.
Most wars are started by a very simple set of circumstances. Conspiracy theories have surrounded almost all wars for the last couple of hundred years but once looked back on are usually proved to be wrong.
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Sorry Professor but those links are a little too extreme for my liking.
You could show indentical pictures from every war fought down through history since the camera was invented...they prove nothing one way or another.
We don't need pictures of the victims of warfare on this website...especially not children...and I view all the children in those pictures as victims whether alive or dead, Israeli or Lebanese.
That website is clearly very biased in it's views in one direction. You have no proof that the children writing on the shells are Israeli. You have no proof that they are recent and not years old, You have no proof that the shells pictured are the ones that were used to inflict the suffering in the other pictures.
It is sensationalist, emotive propaganda....and has no place on this website.
Woomera
You could show indentical pictures from every war fought down through history since the camera was invented...they prove nothing one way or another.
We don't need pictures of the victims of warfare on this website...especially not children...and I view all the children in those pictures as victims whether alive or dead, Israeli or Lebanese.
That website is clearly very biased in it's views in one direction. You have no proof that the children writing on the shells are Israeli. You have no proof that they are recent and not years old, You have no proof that the shells pictured are the ones that were used to inflict the suffering in the other pictures.
It is sensationalist, emotive propaganda....and has no place on this website.
Woomera
