For all the Dooms Dayers
What your argument fails to come to terms with is it doesn’t take into account the economic effects of continued high oil prices. These are some quotes I made from D&G General Aviation & Questions from a similar thread that was running there:
Economics 101 says there is a fundamental flaw in your and the whole dooms day scenario argument. As demand increases and supply decreases prices rise, yes. But only to a point and that point is fast approaching. If there was a reduction in supply as you would argue this will only speed up the inevitable. Once consumers incomes can’t absorb the ever increasing fuel prices and everything else that goes with it anymore, demand for everything not just fuel will collapse taking the price of oil with it. If you don’t believe me have a look at history. It’s all happened before. And the worst effected countries are usually the emerging markets, i.e. China, India etc.
It is also worth pointing out that the longer oil prices remain high the more the pressure is on to find more oil and alternative fuels. While the use hybrid vehicles and the use of such fuels as natural gas and bio fuels in road transport, which is by far the greatest consumer of oil, is commendable, it is in my opinion only a stop gap measure. I believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.
If the price climbs too much it will break the back of the consumer and a recession will follow. Prices are not entirely based on how much of the black stuff there is in the ground but how much the consumer is prepared to pay for it. It is becoming quite obvious that that time is fast approaching. It is widely accepted that high oil prices have the same effect on world economies as high interest rates. You can’t just keep jacking them up and not expect something to give. With both of them rising the limbs at the end of the branch are starting to look awfully thin indeed.
One has to wonder why those that peddle this whole Peak Oil Dooms day scenario completely ignore the whole economic side of the equation. Could it be that some that have been spreading these fears are actually fronts for agendas being pushed by the very loud environmental lobby groups around the world? What I would like to know is who is funding these people and organisations that have conducted studies and made remarks about Peak Oil especially in the last six to twelve months? And where were these people back in 2002 when oil was USD$22.00 a barrel. It all seems too convenient that they have just now decided to speak out.