Virgin on the Pacific...with what pilots?
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Virgin on the Pacific...with what pilots?
It has been mentioned that if only an overseas carrier opened up a sizeable Australian base with a decent deal, the effect of pilots moving in that direction would finally force the airlines to compete for personnel. Well it needn't be an overseas carrier. The possible emergence of Virgin across the pond could be the moment the race to the bottom finally turns for the better.
If Virgin launch they will require experienced pilots. To do this they must either attract them from overseas, or poach from other carriers. However the global shortage of experienced pilots is becoming desperate. If Jetstar vote NO, and pilots overseas refuse to return for substandard T&C's, we will finally have the demand side imbalance we have craved for so long. Both airlines will then be forced to pay the type of money that expats cannot resist, creating a flow on inflationary effect that will be HUGE. Overseas carriers simply cannot afford to lose their experienced Australians and the only way to retain them will be to increase their deals accordingly. Wages will inevitably spiral.
More jobs, a lessening supply of experience, fewer people training, and a declining demographic. The Perfect Storm.
Jetstar pilots have the opportunity to fire the first shot for the defence by voting no, and then observe the game swing back in our favour. The expansion plan is in place and the pilots must be acquired within the allotted time. Make management pay the price that naturally accompanies a shortage of supply in a tight labour market, with the fortunate assistance of a deadline that must be met. The rules of simple economics will do the rest.
The second wave will be Virgin having to offer a package sufficient to attract still more crew from overseas or poach from Jetstar.
The game is unfolding before our eyes. Let us unite and play it wisely.
Ochre.
If Virgin launch they will require experienced pilots. To do this they must either attract them from overseas, or poach from other carriers. However the global shortage of experienced pilots is becoming desperate. If Jetstar vote NO, and pilots overseas refuse to return for substandard T&C's, we will finally have the demand side imbalance we have craved for so long. Both airlines will then be forced to pay the type of money that expats cannot resist, creating a flow on inflationary effect that will be HUGE. Overseas carriers simply cannot afford to lose their experienced Australians and the only way to retain them will be to increase their deals accordingly. Wages will inevitably spiral.
More jobs, a lessening supply of experience, fewer people training, and a declining demographic. The Perfect Storm.
Jetstar pilots have the opportunity to fire the first shot for the defence by voting no, and then observe the game swing back in our favour. The expansion plan is in place and the pilots must be acquired within the allotted time. Make management pay the price that naturally accompanies a shortage of supply in a tight labour market, with the fortunate assistance of a deadline that must be met. The rules of simple economics will do the rest.
The second wave will be Virgin having to offer a package sufficient to attract still more crew from overseas or poach from Jetstar.
The game is unfolding before our eyes. Let us unite and play it wisely.
Ochre.
Last edited by Ochre Insider; 22nd Feb 2006 at 08:07.
Nunc est bibendum
Ah yes, but what of the replacements for them? Ochre is right, the tide is shifting.
I spoke with an ATO the other day. He reckons that GA training is about 10% of what it was 10 years ago. Back of the envelope figures but he'd be pretty close I reckon. He also told of a bunch of mates of his in the UK. Companies in the UK still offer cadetships but have had to restructure them because it is getting to the stage where the trainees are being poached even before they've completed their training.
Bring it on baby.
I spoke with an ATO the other day. He reckons that GA training is about 10% of what it was 10 years ago. Back of the envelope figures but he'd be pretty close I reckon. He also told of a bunch of mates of his in the UK. Companies in the UK still offer cadetships but have had to restructure them because it is getting to the stage where the trainees are being poached even before they've completed their training.
Bring it on baby.
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SKYCAMEL
You are indeed correct in your assertion that Virgin Blue have pilots with experience sufficient to launch international operations. However, the history of the Virgin Group is such that it is unlikely any new venture would be legally related to Virgin Blue. It is likely they would be a completely separate entity with a new AOC. Virgin Blue pilots would have little if any claim on jobs in the international operation. The new operation would have the right to source their pilots from wherever they desired. The question is whether they would prefer to use existing DJ pilots, use the returing expat option, or a combination of the above. No doubt the new company would try and use some sort of "tendering" process to keep the price down...but how many groups would genuinely be tendering? Is there really a ready made supply overseas willing to return home and work for peanuts? Or could it be that, as I suspect is the case with Jetstar, the other tenderer is really a phantom tenderer? Beware the dummy bid...
The only way DJ pilots could ensure a right to operate the new aircraft is to cut a deal with the company. And the company would inevitably have to come to them because there really aren't any other options. Management would no doubt try and hang one on them with the claim that pilots are ready to return from overseas, and that their jobs are in jeopardy. My point is would they allow themselves to be exploited in the same manner and scared into a deal such as is the case with Jetstar? The reality is that a shortage exists, and as such if pilots both Jetstar and Virgin choose not to cave in, nobody's jobs are in jeopardy. On the contrary, a united pilot group will sharpen demand as pressure builds, and salaries will increase rapidly because there are really no other options.
In the case of Jetstar in particular, there may be some pilots from overseas who come back to fly the A330, but big deal, what about the bigger picture? The expansion is with the 787, and you simply cannot find a ready made 787 pilot. Do you really think crew will return from the desert en masse and pay 40K for a 787 endorsement, only to work for below market rates? Surely not! And then where would management turn? The answer is to existing pilots with a much improved deal designed to make them sign up fast.
It really is so important Jetstar don't hastily agree to this deal. Vote no and stick it out for a while. As the deliveries get closer, pressure on management will rise, and the world will open up.
Good luck to all.
Ochre.
You are indeed correct in your assertion that Virgin Blue have pilots with experience sufficient to launch international operations. However, the history of the Virgin Group is such that it is unlikely any new venture would be legally related to Virgin Blue. It is likely they would be a completely separate entity with a new AOC. Virgin Blue pilots would have little if any claim on jobs in the international operation. The new operation would have the right to source their pilots from wherever they desired. The question is whether they would prefer to use existing DJ pilots, use the returing expat option, or a combination of the above. No doubt the new company would try and use some sort of "tendering" process to keep the price down...but how many groups would genuinely be tendering? Is there really a ready made supply overseas willing to return home and work for peanuts? Or could it be that, as I suspect is the case with Jetstar, the other tenderer is really a phantom tenderer? Beware the dummy bid...
The only way DJ pilots could ensure a right to operate the new aircraft is to cut a deal with the company. And the company would inevitably have to come to them because there really aren't any other options. Management would no doubt try and hang one on them with the claim that pilots are ready to return from overseas, and that their jobs are in jeopardy. My point is would they allow themselves to be exploited in the same manner and scared into a deal such as is the case with Jetstar? The reality is that a shortage exists, and as such if pilots both Jetstar and Virgin choose not to cave in, nobody's jobs are in jeopardy. On the contrary, a united pilot group will sharpen demand as pressure builds, and salaries will increase rapidly because there are really no other options.
In the case of Jetstar in particular, there may be some pilots from overseas who come back to fly the A330, but big deal, what about the bigger picture? The expansion is with the 787, and you simply cannot find a ready made 787 pilot. Do you really think crew will return from the desert en masse and pay 40K for a 787 endorsement, only to work for below market rates? Surely not! And then where would management turn? The answer is to existing pilots with a much improved deal designed to make them sign up fast.
It really is so important Jetstar don't hastily agree to this deal. Vote no and stick it out for a while. As the deliveries get closer, pressure on management will rise, and the world will open up.
Good luck to all.
Ochre.
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Ochre.....would agree with your posts whole heartedly.....and if what you say transpires,that can only be good for all of us...
My concern,and pissing into the wind may come into this,is the push ,and it is a major one,of pilotless aircraft.There are many who disagree,and think its a joke,....not so...
I am not sure of its development in Europe/Asia/Downunder.....but in the states,the push for this tecnology is very real.....
Talked to anA/P mechanic the other day,while on a mechanical delay,this subject came up,and I was informed that as we were speaking,the A320,s we fly were being outfitted with equipment that is part of this "programme".
There are those who will scoff at this tecnology...my advice,check out the websites ...the information is there and it is real...if this thing is for real..forget about "pilot shortages"......your kid will wake up,get on the computer,and take a flight from SYD-LAX...ALL IN A DAYS WORK!!
waimarie tama.....PB
My concern,and pissing into the wind may come into this,is the push ,and it is a major one,of pilotless aircraft.There are many who disagree,and think its a joke,....not so...
I am not sure of its development in Europe/Asia/Downunder.....but in the states,the push for this tecnology is very real.....
Talked to anA/P mechanic the other day,while on a mechanical delay,this subject came up,and I was informed that as we were speaking,the A320,s we fly were being outfitted with equipment that is part of this "programme".
There are those who will scoff at this tecnology...my advice,check out the websites ...the information is there and it is real...if this thing is for real..forget about "pilot shortages"......your kid will wake up,get on the computer,and take a flight from SYD-LAX...ALL IN A DAYS WORK!!
waimarie tama.....PB
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Can't see it happening PB - the punters just won't go for it. An airline that offers pilots will be seen as a premium and I for one would pay the extra money to have someone up front. Not only that - technology is not infallable. Anyone see the new Merc Benz S-class? Comes with radar braking as standard. Supposed to stop you from going up another car's @r$e in a fog. Only problem was, when MB assembled the world's media, something went wrong and in the demonstration the car ploughed into the one in front. So much for technology. We may see a few more 744s on the golf course in BKK if we have Cpt Pentium and F/O Intel flying the plane......
pakeha-boy
We aren’t talking about autonomous aircraft because quite frankly the technology isn’t there and won’t be there for some time. Yes I am aware there are some military autonomous aircraft, but the technology is far from perfect and isn’t acceptable to commercial aircraft. We are talking about remotely piloted aircraft from the ground. This drive is being driven by the yanks for obvious security reasons, not because of cost reasons, nothing more nothing less. There are a number of problems they are going to come up against in there drive for this. The first is the cost. From an accounting point of view and I am more than qualified to answer this, it is going to cost way more to the airlines building all the infrastructure on the ground and keeping it operational than would be saved by eliminating the pilot from actually being in the aircraft. The second is how to guarantee data communication with the aircraft at all times and what happens if it is lost. Thirdly trying to agree on a worldwide basis how to implement it and manage it. Fourthly how do some parts of the world pay for the required changes in infrastructure when they can’t provide food for their own people and finally trying to convince passengers to get in them?
The yanks may try and force this on the world but I suspect they will be pushing sh*t up hill on this one because no country will agree to it.
We aren’t talking about autonomous aircraft because quite frankly the technology isn’t there and won’t be there for some time. Yes I am aware there are some military autonomous aircraft, but the technology is far from perfect and isn’t acceptable to commercial aircraft. We are talking about remotely piloted aircraft from the ground. This drive is being driven by the yanks for obvious security reasons, not because of cost reasons, nothing more nothing less. There are a number of problems they are going to come up against in there drive for this. The first is the cost. From an accounting point of view and I am more than qualified to answer this, it is going to cost way more to the airlines building all the infrastructure on the ground and keeping it operational than would be saved by eliminating the pilot from actually being in the aircraft. The second is how to guarantee data communication with the aircraft at all times and what happens if it is lost. Thirdly trying to agree on a worldwide basis how to implement it and manage it. Fourthly how do some parts of the world pay for the required changes in infrastructure when they can’t provide food for their own people and finally trying to convince passengers to get in them?
The yanks may try and force this on the world but I suspect they will be pushing sh*t up hill on this one because no country will agree to it.
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it is going to cost way more to the airlines building all the infrastructure on the ground and keeping it operational than would be saved by eliminating the pilot from actually being in the aircraft.
Frankly, when it comes to a pilot shortage, I think you are being optimistic at present regarding the impact in Australia. I suspect the decision to keep SIA out of the Pacific routes and therefore Cathay, Emirates and possibly others like JAL does nothing more than give a green light to Qantas to make drastic moves on its pilots in the short term while cloaked in the usual rhetoric of "need to get ready for competition".
Regardless of public sentiments, it is significantly cheaper to keep pilots in the loop than the investment in the technology to replace them.
Fedex ( I think ) has done think tank studies on cargo drones and concluded similar- for the next 20 years anyway. Back on topic please!
Perhaps Richard Branson will hand out lucrative, long-haul contracts to his current VB pilots from the "staff island"? Doubt it. The benchmark will be J*. A couple of pom-mates in Virgin Atlantic, mentioned the availability of temporary Sydney bases, and comments from within VS that there would be scope for expansion of this current practice.
Fedex ( I think ) has done think tank studies on cargo drones and concluded similar- for the next 20 years anyway. Back on topic please!
Perhaps Richard Branson will hand out lucrative, long-haul contracts to his current VB pilots from the "staff island"? Doubt it. The benchmark will be J*. A couple of pom-mates in Virgin Atlantic, mentioned the availability of temporary Sydney bases, and comments from within VS that there would be scope for expansion of this current practice.
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Our time
Have been waiting a long time for this one but it does seem that Air China are now in the market for foreign pilots, something previously unheard of and totally taboo in the motherland!!!! That on top of India opening the doors to some 500 expat pilots in need for all their expansion plans, etc etc.
This all means that the fat is being taken up, it will still take time for the effect to trickle up but assuming no other major downturn, it will start putting pressure on airlines and their recruiting abilities.
Pie in sky? Maybe. Heard it all before, maybe. I dont think though we have seen the expansion and opening of markets like China and India before, some definite positive signs for our industry!!!
So all you guys in VB, J* and QF, good luck, hold out for as long as possible and who knows what may be around the corner for us all!!!!
United we stand, divided we fall!!
This all means that the fat is being taken up, it will still take time for the effect to trickle up but assuming no other major downturn, it will start putting pressure on airlines and their recruiting abilities.
Pie in sky? Maybe. Heard it all before, maybe. I dont think though we have seen the expansion and opening of markets like China and India before, some definite positive signs for our industry!!!
So all you guys in VB, J* and QF, good luck, hold out for as long as possible and who knows what may be around the corner for us all!!!!
United we stand, divided we fall!!
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This one does the round every few years, but, sure enough, never amounts to anything.
China and India may be taking expats, but only the most desperate ones. Would you want to live in either place? Me neither. They will have (and are having) major problems finding reasonable quality crews. They might get some eastern Europeans, but that is about it. Pay is crap too.
There are hundreds of Oz & Kiwi expats in the UK (probably thousands) flying for UK airlines, most of whom would love to return home if there was a semi-decent job on offer. I was in that position, every time I met a fellow expat the talk was of how or when we could get home. Any new operation in Oz would attract a lot of those people.
It is also untrue to suggest that overseas airlines cannot afford to lose their experienced Ozmates. Remember that those people are spread across a large number of airlines, in a country with many times more experienced pilots than exist in Oz. Promotion and local hiring could easily take up the slack - we aren't talking about that many crews to start with, in any case.
No, Ochre Insider is wildly overstating the situation.
As for remotely-piloted airliners, the technology is more or less there - any aircraft with a digital data bus could theoretically be remotely piloted - but by who? If the pilot is on the ground, you still need the pilot! There is no way ATC could do it, they would have to have all the qualifications of a pilot as well as an ATC (if only to satisfy the punters). Too many problems to solve, to many safety issues, too much customer resistance. If you want to see a real-world example of technology moving backwards instead of forwards, spare a thought for Concorde...
China and India may be taking expats, but only the most desperate ones. Would you want to live in either place? Me neither. They will have (and are having) major problems finding reasonable quality crews. They might get some eastern Europeans, but that is about it. Pay is crap too.
There are hundreds of Oz & Kiwi expats in the UK (probably thousands) flying for UK airlines, most of whom would love to return home if there was a semi-decent job on offer. I was in that position, every time I met a fellow expat the talk was of how or when we could get home. Any new operation in Oz would attract a lot of those people.
It is also untrue to suggest that overseas airlines cannot afford to lose their experienced Ozmates. Remember that those people are spread across a large number of airlines, in a country with many times more experienced pilots than exist in Oz. Promotion and local hiring could easily take up the slack - we aren't talking about that many crews to start with, in any case.
No, Ochre Insider is wildly overstating the situation.
As for remotely-piloted airliners, the technology is more or less there - any aircraft with a digital data bus could theoretically be remotely piloted - but by who? If the pilot is on the ground, you still need the pilot! There is no way ATC could do it, they would have to have all the qualifications of a pilot as well as an ATC (if only to satisfy the punters). Too many problems to solve, to many safety issues, too much customer resistance. If you want to see a real-world example of technology moving backwards instead of forwards, spare a thought for Concorde...
Grandpa Aerotart
I look at it the other way around....because there are so many opportunities at home...where ever home is...expat reliant airlines are feeling the pinch.
For many reasons expat packages have been eroded in the last 10 yrs...that is starting to reverse.
There WILL NEVER be a 'pilot shortage' in Australia or New Zealand...there will be from time to time 'experienced pilot' shortages that will be alleviated by returning expats.
As for pilotless passenger aircraft on commercial ops?
Will not happen in our lifetimes...and probably not that of our children.
Mind you I would half like to see someone try....only then will we have the TRUE VALUE of a human pilot driven home in the most violent way imaginable...as pilotless aircraft crash left and right because a frightened human wasn't there to intervene.
If the US is truly driving for this because of security concerns they are even more stupid than I thought...and I already think they are about the dumbest sub species, as a group, on the planet.
For many reasons expat packages have been eroded in the last 10 yrs...that is starting to reverse.
There WILL NEVER be a 'pilot shortage' in Australia or New Zealand...there will be from time to time 'experienced pilot' shortages that will be alleviated by returning expats.
As for pilotless passenger aircraft on commercial ops?
Will not happen in our lifetimes...and probably not that of our children.
Mind you I would half like to see someone try....only then will we have the TRUE VALUE of a human pilot driven home in the most violent way imaginable...as pilotless aircraft crash left and right because a frightened human wasn't there to intervene.
If the US is truly driving for this because of security concerns they are even more stupid than I thought...and I already think they are about the dumbest sub species, as a group, on the planet.
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Shortage............ what shortage?
From what I can see, there seems to be plenty of pilots out there globally cooling their heels who can step up to the task of filling asorted vacant spots and I'm sure that airlines have factored this in. If there really is a looming pilot shortage (and this "shortage" has been coming now for the last decade at least), the airlines sure don't seem too worried about it.
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one thing is for sure...nobody likes this idea,myself included,but it is one worth mentioning,..the last post was the best ..in that the yanks are the dumbest lot around...even if they dud go to the moon!!!! hehehohoheheh..seriously..I would agree with most of the posts....sort of chucked that in there to test the waters...new ideas,especially pilotless aircraft,will get a few dicks hard,but nontheless ,the idea is there!!....if not in reality......me,Im a line pilot,have never liked the mgt stance,and are more than ready to make life difficult for them,...but also willing to tow the line...since it is "here and now"..we as pilots have and must take a pro-active role in our well-being...and the part we play is paramount to our futures,.I can only hope that those of us that belong to unions.ie ALPA....(of the various countrys,)exercise your rights ,and have the balls to stand up to mgt and give ourselves the future we deserve........you only have to look at the bullys in AirNZ and what is going on in the MTX Dept.....I rest my case....tena koutou...PB
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PB have a butchers at befairba.org. The management want to cut the 'Tane' of our employment down, our pension. We have nearly 90 percent union membership so will be interesting. Feel for the Air NZ engineers. Do the Chinese really have the capacity to do the maintaince for their own growing fleets and possibly soon AirNZ and the Okers. Wonder if the fellas with calculators in offices have thought that one out.
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Waka mate....they will tell you anything...but that is something you already know....bottom line....we have to take care of our own "office"...like you,I feel for them ,but there is not a lot we really can do.....or is there???
rangi(the pilot)..calls up the the boss(mgt)
Boss,....cant come to work today,have a headache and sore back!!!
Rangi,the boss says....when I feel like that,I go to the wife,tell her my troubles,we have sex,......I feel so good ,I CAN GO TO WORK,you should try that Rangi!!!
about 2 hours later rangi calls the boss,
Boss,..Rangi here mate...look,I did what you said and now I feel really good ,so Im coming to work!!!....By the way Boss.....YOU HAVE A NICE HOUSE!!! .....PB
rangi(the pilot)..calls up the the boss(mgt)
Boss,....cant come to work today,have a headache and sore back!!!
Rangi,the boss says....when I feel like that,I go to the wife,tell her my troubles,we have sex,......I feel so good ,I CAN GO TO WORK,you should try that Rangi!!!
about 2 hours later rangi calls the boss,
Boss,..Rangi here mate...look,I did what you said and now I feel really good ,so Im coming to work!!!....By the way Boss.....YOU HAVE A NICE HOUSE!!! .....PB
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sorry mate...totally understand that a lot of "mahi" is at stake here....dont mean to make fun of the situation at all,as we all have "bro" involved....my best wishes to all those invloved....whakapono..PB
Yes. There will never be a shortage of pilots in Australia or NZ. Sadly, aswell, the practice immortalised initially by a few, of paying for jet endorsements, has cemented the fact that any disaffected pilots leaving Virgin Blue, J* or trans-Tasman similars, will NEVER affect a bottom line to the extent it used to. In effect, pilots paying for training, have taken attrition out of the supply & demand formula.
So, bearing in mind the above, what has Virgin Blue got to gain from a large scale transferring of it's domestic crews to a Pacific long haul operation? Unless they come in a lot cheaper than what it would cost to entice home experienced, type endorsed pilots from Europe, the Mid & Far East.
If there is an aviation karma, VB pilots wont get the gig. And despite MOR's beliefs, the repatriating of Australian pilots, could have impact on overseas contracts. Especially if EK pilots come home in numbers ( on top of present attrition ). Training departments can be overly burdened with the training of attrition, and not expansion, resulting in aircraft grounded or expansion windows missed! These are the two consistants that historically result in an improved set of conditions for pilots.
Ironically, it could be VB pilots who have left for expatriate opportunities, that could benefit from their former colleagues being closed out of trans-pacific flying.
So, bearing in mind the above, what has Virgin Blue got to gain from a large scale transferring of it's domestic crews to a Pacific long haul operation? Unless they come in a lot cheaper than what it would cost to entice home experienced, type endorsed pilots from Europe, the Mid & Far East.
If there is an aviation karma, VB pilots wont get the gig. And despite MOR's beliefs, the repatriating of Australian pilots, could have impact on overseas contracts. Especially if EK pilots come home in numbers ( on top of present attrition ). Training departments can be overly burdened with the training of attrition, and not expansion, resulting in aircraft grounded or expansion windows missed! These are the two consistants that historically result in an improved set of conditions for pilots.
Ironically, it could be VB pilots who have left for expatriate opportunities, that could benefit from their former colleagues being closed out of trans-pacific flying.