The Biggest Aviation Question: Fuel Supply
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Can a European join this debate?
Because in our end of the world if you go into any airline boardroom, any governmental agency dealing with aviation, any industry grouping, and you’ll very quickly get a sense of what is the biggest challenge facing the industry in the medium term – it’s not fuel supply, far from it. It’s the impact of aviation on the environment. CO2 – global warming – Kyoto and all that stuff.
One week from today the EU Finance Ministers have a summit where they will almost certainly vote to push ahead with a proposal to hit the airlines with a double whammy of a ticket tax and a fuel tax, which could add 30 Euros to a short-haul journey and 90 Euros long-haul. And that’s one way.
The idea is quite simply to choke off demand and make the industry shrink in size. Less passengers = less flying = less fuel burn = less CO2. And lots of lovely tax revenue in the various national exchequers. They have even linked it to humanitarian aid to Africa to make it even more attractive politically.
Because in our end of the world if you go into any airline boardroom, any governmental agency dealing with aviation, any industry grouping, and you’ll very quickly get a sense of what is the biggest challenge facing the industry in the medium term – it’s not fuel supply, far from it. It’s the impact of aviation on the environment. CO2 – global warming – Kyoto and all that stuff.
One week from today the EU Finance Ministers have a summit where they will almost certainly vote to push ahead with a proposal to hit the airlines with a double whammy of a ticket tax and a fuel tax, which could add 30 Euros to a short-haul journey and 90 Euros long-haul. And that’s one way.
The idea is quite simply to choke off demand and make the industry shrink in size. Less passengers = less flying = less fuel burn = less CO2. And lots of lovely tax revenue in the various national exchequers. They have even linked it to humanitarian aid to Africa to make it even more attractive politically.
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desk jockey,
great to see your input. The irony with the EU's actions is that (as posted on the first page of this topic) contrails actually reduce the impact of global warming. Reducing jet traffic will, apparently, reduce the cooling effect of "global dimming" and accelerate global warming!
life as a journey,
hey - I learnt a new latin expression today, cheers. But I can see how NMC is frustrated with others' blind belief in "she'll be right".
great to see your input. The irony with the EU's actions is that (as posted on the first page of this topic) contrails actually reduce the impact of global warming. Reducing jet traffic will, apparently, reduce the cooling effect of "global dimming" and accelerate global warming!
life as a journey,
hey - I learnt a new latin expression today, cheers. But I can see how NMC is frustrated with others' blind belief in "she'll be right".
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One of the most intelligent debates i have seen on pprune in a long while.
As oil is a finite resource, oil companies will go farther offshore to find fields, thus, the price will go up to match exploration.
Theres no doubt in my mind that we will see an oil crisis in my working life, and hiding from it will do nothing to prepare for the impending outcome. Well done on your post NoMoreCrap.
As oil is a finite resource, oil companies will go farther offshore to find fields, thus, the price will go up to match exploration.
Theres no doubt in my mind that we will see an oil crisis in my working life, and hiding from it will do nothing to prepare for the impending outcome. Well done on your post NoMoreCrap.
As oil is a finite resource, oil companies will go farther offshore to find fields, thus, the price will go up to match exploration.
Looks as though India & China will have to import it as well....
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QANTAS to Double Fuel Surcharge
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems...4/s1339820.htm
Is it just me, or is the use of the term 'surcharge' just spin?
There isn't a catering surcharge, or a crew surcharge, or an aircraft leasing surcharge - it is just the cost of doing business isn't it?
Is it just me, or is the use of the term 'surcharge' just spin?
There isn't a catering surcharge, or a crew surcharge, or an aircraft leasing surcharge - it is just the cost of doing business isn't it?
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I remember seeing these types of debates back in the 70's, the last time oil prices went up substantially. The media love it but it is not based in fact.
Proven Canadian shale oil deposits rival those of Saudi Arabia. Unproven reserves potentially leave the Middle East for dead. Up till recently it was not economic to recover them but due to advances in filtration technology and the higher prices of oil, it now is. Extraction costs are now down to around 9 dollars a barrel. Watch Canada become a major exporter of oil to the US in the future.
Despite the large fuel orders we complete in our day to day jobs, aviation fuel usage is dwarfed by the usage of automobiles. Already moves are underway for alternative fuels such as hydrogen and hydrogen/petrol hybrids to begin replacing the petrol engine. The technology is there, the infrastructure will take X number of years to put in place. Once cars are weaned off petrol, oil reserves for aviation will cease to become an issue.
I personally welcome the higher prices because it will spur the development of the alternatives that will make this a cleaner planet. The only thing missing up till now has been the political will, maybe this will change soon.
On the subject of a cleaner planet, anyone ever heard of thermal depolymerization?
Proven Canadian shale oil deposits rival those of Saudi Arabia. Unproven reserves potentially leave the Middle East for dead. Up till recently it was not economic to recover them but due to advances in filtration technology and the higher prices of oil, it now is. Extraction costs are now down to around 9 dollars a barrel. Watch Canada become a major exporter of oil to the US in the future.
Despite the large fuel orders we complete in our day to day jobs, aviation fuel usage is dwarfed by the usage of automobiles. Already moves are underway for alternative fuels such as hydrogen and hydrogen/petrol hybrids to begin replacing the petrol engine. The technology is there, the infrastructure will take X number of years to put in place. Once cars are weaned off petrol, oil reserves for aviation will cease to become an issue.
I personally welcome the higher prices because it will spur the development of the alternatives that will make this a cleaner planet. The only thing missing up till now has been the political will, maybe this will change soon.
On the subject of a cleaner planet, anyone ever heard of thermal depolymerization?
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Nice reply Borg; you've hit both nails on the head.
My father-in-law is right up there with the hydrogen, and its hybrid hydrogen/petrol derivate, power source as an alternative to fossil fuels we're using now.
I get the good oil from him regularly, so to speak. Hasn't been a viable alternative so far, but only due to economics. That's changing, as is the feasibility of previously uneconomic fields of oil and gas.
Such as in Brunei. Small market, to be sure, but it's my local, which gives me a bit of an insight.
We're wildly profitable right now. Back in '98, things were not as clear. Both Elf and Fletcher Challenge stopped looking for new fields when the price got to $17 a barrell.
It's safe to say the oil companies here are not inactive now.
There are nine oil fields off Bandar.
One of them, Seria, has 700 wells, of which 400 are capped. And that's just Brunei, a small Sultanate just north of the equator.
We don't even come close to the potential in Canada.
So yeah, there is a shift occuring, it just isn't seismic.
My father-in-law is right up there with the hydrogen, and its hybrid hydrogen/petrol derivate, power source as an alternative to fossil fuels we're using now.
I get the good oil from him regularly, so to speak. Hasn't been a viable alternative so far, but only due to economics. That's changing, as is the feasibility of previously uneconomic fields of oil and gas.
Such as in Brunei. Small market, to be sure, but it's my local, which gives me a bit of an insight.
We're wildly profitable right now. Back in '98, things were not as clear. Both Elf and Fletcher Challenge stopped looking for new fields when the price got to $17 a barrell.
It's safe to say the oil companies here are not inactive now.
There are nine oil fields off Bandar.
One of them, Seria, has 700 wells, of which 400 are capped. And that's just Brunei, a small Sultanate just north of the equator.
We don't even come close to the potential in Canada.
So yeah, there is a shift occuring, it just isn't seismic.
Grandpa Aerotart
Like I said...what oil shortage?
I will admit to being as worried as anyone about Peak Oil etc over the last little while...who wouldn't be....but too I am old enough to remember the 73 oil crisis and was buying petrol for my car in the 79 one.
The 'end of the world as we know it' cries were the same then as now.
a more realistic appraisal
Interesting point of view
It would be too much to ask mainstream media to do a little research before printing their disaster comics but we all know they print mostly BS.
I am coming to believe the Global Warming paranoia is just more of the same.
Google is great innit?
I will admit to being as worried as anyone about Peak Oil etc over the last little while...who wouldn't be....but too I am old enough to remember the 73 oil crisis and was buying petrol for my car in the 79 one.
The 'end of the world as we know it' cries were the same then as now.
a more realistic appraisal
Interesting point of view
It would be too much to ask mainstream media to do a little research before printing their disaster comics but we all know they print mostly BS.
I am coming to believe the Global Warming paranoia is just more of the same.
Google is great innit?
Grandpa Aerotart
Where's the bit about the 19 yr old?
Some more about Global warming
Holes in the greehouse effect
Testamony before the house of representatives science commitee
Between the media trying to sensationalise and group think among people convinced the end is nigh the truth gets short thrift...human nature at it's worse.
The world isn't getting warmer and we've got at least 300 yrs of oil left.
Certainly things need to be done...lots more LPG cars and hybrid electrical etc...but Peak Oil in 20 yrs...not a chance.
Melting ice caps and the sea rising up and swallowing Islands and waterfront homes.....I think not.
Hysterical doomsayers have been around for 1000s of years...they have yet to be right...not even once.
I remember the hystrical calls of the next ice age is nigh 20 yrs ago and I certainly remember the last several petrol crises (artificially created by Arabs pissed off with the US)...they all just quietly slipped away...in 20 yrs we've gone from the next ice age is due any minute to global warming and melting ice caps swallowing the coasts of every country. For starters the Arctic is an ice continent floating in water the whole thing could melt and not raise the sea levels on inch...try it in a glass of water with heaps of ice...and leave it to melt. The water level will be unchanged because the ice dispaces the same amount of liquid water as the volums of ice.
Global warming and an end to oil based society in my, or indeed my great, great, great grandkids life span seem pretty unlikely to me...I have no doubt we will have higher petrol prices for a while and they may never be below $1.00 again/for a very long time...just like they're never going to be below $0.50 again...or $0.30, or $0.25. Nor are your house rates going to drop or insurance premiiums for cars or the price of bread/milk/steak/etc...neither will our wages be what they were 30yrs ago...things cost more...that's life.
Sustained higher oil prices will lead to higher wages and a new acceptable balance will be reached...it's been thus for a fair while now...Think it's called inflation.
Some more about Global warming
Holes in the greehouse effect
Testamony before the house of representatives science commitee
Between the media trying to sensationalise and group think among people convinced the end is nigh the truth gets short thrift...human nature at it's worse.
The world isn't getting warmer and we've got at least 300 yrs of oil left.
Certainly things need to be done...lots more LPG cars and hybrid electrical etc...but Peak Oil in 20 yrs...not a chance.
Melting ice caps and the sea rising up and swallowing Islands and waterfront homes.....I think not.
Hysterical doomsayers have been around for 1000s of years...they have yet to be right...not even once.
I remember the hystrical calls of the next ice age is nigh 20 yrs ago and I certainly remember the last several petrol crises (artificially created by Arabs pissed off with the US)...they all just quietly slipped away...in 20 yrs we've gone from the next ice age is due any minute to global warming and melting ice caps swallowing the coasts of every country. For starters the Arctic is an ice continent floating in water the whole thing could melt and not raise the sea levels on inch...try it in a glass of water with heaps of ice...and leave it to melt. The water level will be unchanged because the ice dispaces the same amount of liquid water as the volums of ice.
Global warming and an end to oil based society in my, or indeed my great, great, great grandkids life span seem pretty unlikely to me...I have no doubt we will have higher petrol prices for a while and they may never be below $1.00 again/for a very long time...just like they're never going to be below $0.50 again...or $0.30, or $0.25. Nor are your house rates going to drop or insurance premiiums for cars or the price of bread/milk/steak/etc...neither will our wages be what they were 30yrs ago...things cost more...that's life.
Sustained higher oil prices will lead to higher wages and a new acceptable balance will be reached...it's been thus for a fair while now...Think it's called inflation.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 9th Apr 2005 at 20:54.
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Chimbu, posting from the Cato Institute website.... should you know better? Check out some of their sponsors:
- ChevronTexaco Corporation
- ExxonMobil Corporation
- General Motors Corporation
- Mazda North America Operations
- Mitsubishi Motors America, Inc
- Toyota Motor Corporation
Grandpa Aerotart
Well show me where information can be got that isn't sponsored by people/groups without any bias whatsoever...Perhaps Greenpeace...on second thoughts not.
While I wasn't aware that CATO has those sponsors it doesn't really bother me either. The pro Global warming side used to get lots of money from Ford and GM as well...until they became convinced that the science was flawed.
Lots and lots and LOTS of Googling and reading other stuff as well has convinced me that a lot of the mass hysteria is just group think.
Perhaps we are, in the future, going to have another Ice Age and logic suggests one day we will certainly run out of oil...I found no evidence that convinces me either of these things are going to be any time soon.
In my experience people who have little fact to base their argument on argue emotively and are dismissive of any counter argument. How can you argue against the super accurate atmospheric temperature recordings done over the best part of 60 yrs? That is the sort of imperical data I can accept.
On the other side of the argument we have computer models which are designed and modified (manipulated) until they are deemed to give correct information. One bad storm season is touted to validate predictions made by a computer that has been programmed by an individual or group who believe Global Warming is a reality and that the causes are man made....anyone wanna guess at the information that is not being fed into those models because it is not deemed important by an individual or group with a "It's all our fault" bias.
Govts are feeding Billions into Global warming research...if pro warming scientists find some of the data doesn't quite support their argument don't you think human nature being what it is they'd tend to minimise the import of that data...and who's going to be the first to raise his/her hand and say "Opps, sorry Mr President...we fecked up" and kill the gravy train. How many of his former collegues will then label him a nut? How many times have we seen similar behaviour within our own life experiences and do we really believe the label scientist removes that individual from the general weaknesses and charachter flaws that inflict mankind in general?
One side says the world is getting warmer and our computer models suggest it's gone up 1 or 2 degrees in the last century and it's going to accelerate away in the next...while the other group looks at impirical data and say "What...where?...The temperature recordings say it hasn't gone up at all and might even be cooling off a little lately"
One side says Global warming is here and disaster is around the corner (emotive) and the other side says "Well the science doesn't prove that and we don't know enough about a lot of this science to make such predictions let alone base Govt policy on it and move forward on plans that will cost mankind trillions of dollars. Let the science move forward without the pollitical pressures and wait and see what we come up with"
The other side says "WAIT?? WE CAN"T WAIT...THE FUTURE OF MANKIND IS IN THE BALANCE...LIFE AS WE KNOW IT IS ENDING!!!!"
More and more in the last weeks we are hearing that world crude supply is not the reason for the high prices but a limitation in refining facilities. Not to mention being driven up by the Stock Market's futures traders...a bunch of 20 somethings hell bent on becoming multi-millionaires over night.
The USGS and other similar bodies are saying "Hey there is plenty of oil still in the ground + oil shale, oil sands, heavy oil in Velenzuala..and on and on".
Petrol prices hit $1.16 in Melbourne apparently in the last few days...petrol prices were in that region 5 yrs ago.
China is creating supply problems...it's a fecking big place with shedloads of oil shale itself and how much oil drilling has been done there...wait for the anouncement that they have just stumbled upon reserves that make the Saudis look like a bunch of dirt poor Bedoin.
What is under the Antartic? We won't know for a very long time probably because pressure from Greenpeace and similar will keep that place locked up for a very long time yet.
Russia and Iraq's real oil reserves are a big mystery and their oil apparatus is in dissarray....but knowledgeable people suggest there is a hell of a lot more there than we know about.
Personally, after a period spent worrying about my daughter's future, I am content that the sea levels aren't going to ruin my property plans and petrol will be available and affordable for a very long time yet.
But if you guys wanna worry yourselves into an early grave fill your boots.
While I wasn't aware that CATO has those sponsors it doesn't really bother me either. The pro Global warming side used to get lots of money from Ford and GM as well...until they became convinced that the science was flawed.
Lots and lots and LOTS of Googling and reading other stuff as well has convinced me that a lot of the mass hysteria is just group think.
Perhaps we are, in the future, going to have another Ice Age and logic suggests one day we will certainly run out of oil...I found no evidence that convinces me either of these things are going to be any time soon.
In my experience people who have little fact to base their argument on argue emotively and are dismissive of any counter argument. How can you argue against the super accurate atmospheric temperature recordings done over the best part of 60 yrs? That is the sort of imperical data I can accept.
On the other side of the argument we have computer models which are designed and modified (manipulated) until they are deemed to give correct information. One bad storm season is touted to validate predictions made by a computer that has been programmed by an individual or group who believe Global Warming is a reality and that the causes are man made....anyone wanna guess at the information that is not being fed into those models because it is not deemed important by an individual or group with a "It's all our fault" bias.
Govts are feeding Billions into Global warming research...if pro warming scientists find some of the data doesn't quite support their argument don't you think human nature being what it is they'd tend to minimise the import of that data...and who's going to be the first to raise his/her hand and say "Opps, sorry Mr President...we fecked up" and kill the gravy train. How many of his former collegues will then label him a nut? How many times have we seen similar behaviour within our own life experiences and do we really believe the label scientist removes that individual from the general weaknesses and charachter flaws that inflict mankind in general?
One side says the world is getting warmer and our computer models suggest it's gone up 1 or 2 degrees in the last century and it's going to accelerate away in the next...while the other group looks at impirical data and say "What...where?...The temperature recordings say it hasn't gone up at all and might even be cooling off a little lately"
One side says Global warming is here and disaster is around the corner (emotive) and the other side says "Well the science doesn't prove that and we don't know enough about a lot of this science to make such predictions let alone base Govt policy on it and move forward on plans that will cost mankind trillions of dollars. Let the science move forward without the pollitical pressures and wait and see what we come up with"
The other side says "WAIT?? WE CAN"T WAIT...THE FUTURE OF MANKIND IS IN THE BALANCE...LIFE AS WE KNOW IT IS ENDING!!!!"
More and more in the last weeks we are hearing that world crude supply is not the reason for the high prices but a limitation in refining facilities. Not to mention being driven up by the Stock Market's futures traders...a bunch of 20 somethings hell bent on becoming multi-millionaires over night.
The USGS and other similar bodies are saying "Hey there is plenty of oil still in the ground + oil shale, oil sands, heavy oil in Velenzuala..and on and on".
Petrol prices hit $1.16 in Melbourne apparently in the last few days...petrol prices were in that region 5 yrs ago.
China is creating supply problems...it's a fecking big place with shedloads of oil shale itself and how much oil drilling has been done there...wait for the anouncement that they have just stumbled upon reserves that make the Saudis look like a bunch of dirt poor Bedoin.
What is under the Antartic? We won't know for a very long time probably because pressure from Greenpeace and similar will keep that place locked up for a very long time yet.
Russia and Iraq's real oil reserves are a big mystery and their oil apparatus is in dissarray....but knowledgeable people suggest there is a hell of a lot more there than we know about.
Personally, after a period spent worrying about my daughter's future, I am content that the sea levels aren't going to ruin my property plans and petrol will be available and affordable for a very long time yet.
But if you guys wanna worry yourselves into an early grave fill your boots.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 10th Apr 2005 at 06:55.
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Where's the bit about the 19 yr old?
-- from his website you quoted.
Nobody here seems to be advocating global hysteria as you suggest - just an acknowledgement that Peak Oil is a legitimate theory, we have reached it more or less, and alternative sources of oil will be more expensive (shale / sands etc.), and that alternative sources where oil is not economical need to be properly embraced. The point of the whole thread was the effect on Aviation I thought?
On your point about vested interests - I king of agree that everyone has a vested interest - unless you are a purely independent scientist (i.e. University paid - not corporate sponsored).
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Chimbu/US, agreed, any research is biased to some degree. The CATO Institute just looks like a mouthpiece for the Oil and Motor industries. But all sides need to be heard, of course.
On the subject of empirical evidence vs scientific research, may I quote from the BBC transcript,
I beg to differ about mass hysteria - in fact there are surprisingly few voices in the media that seem to be addressing the Peak Oil debate with any low-brow angle. And certainly there is no panic in the streets. Scepticism is necessary of course but ignorance is dangerous.
On the subject of empirical evidence vs scientific research, may I quote from the BBC transcript,
I don't think the figures on global warming are open to interpretation. It is an established fact that global temperatures have risen by 0.6°C over the past century. It is also an established fact that carbon dioxide levels have risen by about 100 parts per million over the same period due to human activity. It is a matter of the basic laws of physics that an increase in carbon dioxide will trap more heat in the Earth's atmosphere, which is why almost no respectable and independent scientist doubts the causal link between these two established facts.
The only surprise is that the warming has not been greater - which is where global dimming comes in. ... we are in for far faster warming in the future as particle emissions are brought under control while greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
The only surprise is that the warming has not been greater - which is where global dimming comes in. ... we are in for far faster warming in the future as particle emissions are brought under control while greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
