LHR Airborne delay - poor information

[Northerner]

And please also remember that on sector you might not always have the bigger picture. It may be that a stack swap is done from LAM-BIG creating Tiger holding as the GS's know that on that particular day LYD sector have more capacity than others. Tiger is often also favoured as it is closer in that some other outer holds and with well established procedures.

As a controller and a GS I would say that I try never to stack swap without good reason; that I ALWAYS ask the controller concerned if they can accept the swap (remembering that I'm not on radar at that time so may not have the full picture of the sector) and you can refuse if there is good reason to do so. HOwever, if you're bandboxed and say no then don't be surprised if I split it then ask again!

I don't do Airports/EAT's at the moment, but I too have noticed a difference when I'm on radar - however, I'm raising it internally too - I hope you folk are as well, as whinging on here won't get us anywhere!

And having been around a while I have seen one go LAM - BIG - OCK - BOV once!

Cheers,
N

"Keep smiling - it makes people wonder what you're up to..."

[1985]

If AC or TC 'outer' sectors are pressured for an EAT can't they give a best guess estimate or quote the delay for the aircraft just entering the inner holds as a guide?

I try to do this but we don't get the delays for any aircraft until they go above 20 mins. This "less than 20 mins" rubbish is just pointless it could mean from 0 -19 mins. AC should have a link to the EGLL EATs aswell as the other TMA airfields on the SIS, that way when the delays start creeping up then we can help by slowing stuff down. At the moment we are left guessing by looking at the landing rates and counting the traffic ahead of the one asking. If we chucking stuff in at 300kts + and the delay is 15mins let us know and we'll slow it down. Better communication between TC and AC is the key.

As for the LOGAN hold, using the furthest away, highest level AC hold is not sensible. It should be used as a last resort as it causes so many problems not just for CLN but NOR. LMS, LUS and Maastricht.

[Lookatthesky]

As for the LOGAN hold, using the furthest away, highest level AC hold is not sensible. It should be used as a last resort as it causes so many problems not just for CLN but NOR. LMS, LUS and Maastricht.

It is a last resort as we would fill BRASO first, although I grant you, some people on here would have you think otherwise

[250 kts]

1985,
Why not do what I do. if there is any inkling of a delay over about 10 minutes I just get the LAS to get the accurate EATs up on his display and to keep me notified of any significant change. I agree it would be better to have it on the SIS but I understand there was not enough of a "business case" to warrant it a couple of years ago.

[120.4]

I'm late entering this one I know - There may be a little help on the way. It's called CDM, Collaborative Decision Making. Phases 1 & 2 are on line and phase 3 goes online 20th January (I think), available on an Internet subscriber basis. This will enable airline ops to have direct access to the EAT information constantly and a whole host of other things too. Eventually it will be forcasting on-block times 3 hours in advance, using multiple sensors and user inputs, on software being developed by a VERY well known sporting organisation.

It won't stop the congestion of course but it should give operators a much better chance of managing their problems.

.4

[1985]

250 kts

I have to say your LAS's sound better than mine, i reckon one update before their book would draw them back in

Lookatthesky

I'm aware BRASO gets filled before LOGAN but other people seem to want to fill LOGAN when its the hold that causes the most grief, before filling a hold that has very clearly defined procedures on how to handle it eg TIGER.

Hope everyone had a good xmas

[Sean Dell]

More poor info today !

I know there were strong winds at LHR - but some of this was absorbed by slot delays (WR delay code today).

However - 'expect 10-15' total delay at BNN. Various curt responses from controllers when asked 'was this 10-15 holding in addition to slowing up' - reply was a terse ' no, total delay - as I said !'

Anyway we were given 10-15 mins which became an EAT of 22 mins and then this wasn't honoured either - missed by about 4 mins!

I suppose I should routinely carry 30 mins then no nasty surprises ?

S.D.

[beaver liquor]

Well the strong winds today are forecast to be even stronger tomorrow afternoon - in excess of 50 knots at three thousand feet, and 30 knots on the ground, so more of the same.

Of course if the flow is perceived to be too severe the airlines are jumping all over NATS asking why its low - even if the weather situation is pretty obvious!

Airlines need to make up their mind what they actually want - an on-time off blocks departure (good for the punctuality stats eh?) and significant air holding; or a more punitive slot but less air holding. Make your minds up time.

[Del Prado]

Sean, your delay is the amount of time going round the hold. It does not include slowing down early. (how could we work that out accurately anyway?)

As an aside, there's pressure from above about the spacing on final approach. 2.5 miles is being viewed as absolute minimum separation therefore some/many of the Heathrow directors are unhappy providing 2.5 mile spacing when a very slight misjudgement (by us or you) and we'll end up in the office for our equivalent of tea and biscuits.
A change of personnel when the oncoming final director is unhappy doing 2.5 mile spacing and your initial 15 mins could quickly become 22.

(Incidentally 2.5 miles in today's wind takes about 1minute 20 seconds whereas 3 miles with a slight tailwind takes about 1minute 5 seconds.)

Sorry for the thread drift but to get back to your last point, if there's strong headwinds or LVPs forecast then I strongly suggest you expect at least 30 mins holding. I'm surprised it's not company policy with 50kts headwinds.

[250 kts]

1985,

Yes I think we are lucky on our watch with the quality of the LAS's. I know when I spin I have had the odd "funny look" when I have asked for the EATs to be displayed and monitored-but that's part of what they are there for and I have seen a few other ATCOs start to ask for the same info too.

[Phantom99]

As an en-route controller we try our best to relay the information to pilots but we don't always have all of the information. I realise that in the flightdeck you don't always know if you talking to terminal or en-route so understandably it can be frustrating.

Yesterday morning was interesting for us on Clacton (sector for the LAM arrivals) with delays reaching 35 mins yet the controller info screen was being updated with EATs only every 10 mins, hardly any aircraft in the hold at LAM (so we can guess at the delays) and not much info forthcoming from TC (not a bash, you guys have other things to worry about).

Our primary trigger for slowing aircraft down with us and also with Maastricht was the fact that we could see the ground speed of aircraft transferred to TC slowing dramatically, not the most scientific but it worked! Oh and once the published landing rate drops below 38 an hour we are always prepared for delays.

The LASs are good on B (Green) watch with regard to EATs from their more accurate machine. We try to give accurate delay info on first contact but it often more of an educated guess until we see the EATs appear (eventually!)

[Sean Dell]

I understand that the strong winds will cause delays and reduced flow rates - but still am concerned that duff info is being passed along the line (because the supervisor is not updating the delays as often). I think as a pilot I would rather be told 'we don't really know what the delays are' - then I would start planning sooner. Rather than be given a 'plucked out of thin air number.'

Also - the comment about 'total delay' - I always find misleading. If you are offered the chance to slow down - total delay is 10 mins, then should I slow down to holding speed and expect 10 mins in the hold or fly balls out to the hold and get the same 10 mins? One of those is pretty much 10 mins total delay the other considerably longer.....

Please guys - don't take any of this personally - you are all very good - it's just I have noticed these things (I describe above) happening more and more and I am just trying to further my understanding of what's going on - so that I can plan accordingly.

ATB

S.D.

[Del Prado]

I'll say "total delay" if you've been round the hold before getting on my frequency. If I say "delay 15mins" a typical response is "is that from now as we've already been round once?"
I'm trying to give you as accurate info as possible while trying to reduce R/T, Perhaps "total holding" would be a more accurate term?


The "delay" or "total delay" NEVER EVER includes slowing down early.
If you want to fly balls out to get to the hold the delay will be 15 instead of 10. We're not trying to hoodwink you. It is the same for everyone.

[Thunderbug]

Sean

I'm with you on this one. Delays into LHR are becoming unpredictable. Sure with winds, SN, FG; delays are expected, but even on a good day - 20 minutes can come out of nowhere especially if it is a weekend.

This unpredictably combined with the lack of accuracy is not a happy state of affairs especially when we up to recently had good info being given out.

A recent arrival via LAM. Nice day, but a weekend. told 15 min delay, total delay was 21 min not including slowing down. Then we had a very long approach; downwind to abeam LHR and then back to Docklands and then in.

I don't mind what you tell me as long as it is the truth. Bit like PAs to passengers, they react far better being told the truth rather than some BS.

Del Prado

Sean, your delay is the amount of time going round the hold. It does not include slowing down early. (how could we work that out accurately anyway?)

If you give me a delay figure, I too expect that to be total delay. If I then slow done approaching the hold, this will absorb some of that delay hence the time doing circles will be less. If that is not the case expect alot of people doing 300+kts to the 12 mile point.

T'bug

[Del Prado]

TB, at the risk of repeating myself, If you want to fly balls out to get to the hold the delay will be 15 instead of 10.

[Sean Dell]

Thanks DP.

So as I am a bit fick,

What you are saying is.

As soon as holding is mentioned, slow down immediately to holding speed (we will not lose our place in the queue) and when we do make the fix the delay should (subject to the info from your supervisor being accurate ;-) ) be what you are telling us. Whether the words 'total delay' or 'expect 10-15 mins in the hold' are used - it makes no difference - they are the same beast.

I will try and convey that to the people that I am flying with as there are a lot of theorists out there!

[Del Prado]

Exactly. Especially the not losing your place bit. When delays are less than 10, the landing order is decided up to about 40 miles from the stacks and when in EATs the order is picked up to 200 miles from the airfield.

I also find the less the delay the more it's first come, first served but when in EATs it comes down to the most efficient landing order. Then it doesn't matter how fast you try to get to the fix you could still end up behind a heavy that's 20 miles to run to another stack.
That may not sound fair but by picking the most efficient vortex order we'll reduce the delays for everyone following. (and because we've been doing that all day we've probably already saved you a significant extra delay.)

[Scuzi]

Originally Posted by Thunderbug

I don't mind what you tell me as long as it is the truth. Bit like PAs to passengers, they react far better being told the truth rather than some BS.

Hold on a second. We have nothing to gain by giving you inaccurate information. If telling you that you'll be holding for half an hour is going to piss you or your passengers off, I couldn't care less. We can only pass on the information that is in front of us and the majority of the time that is fairly accurate. There are times when it is inaccurate but that's the nature of the beast. In case you aren't aware bucko, air traffic control is a complex game and the slighest variable can rubbish the best of plans. I'd hardly consider an extra 6 minutes anything to get your knickers in a twist about.

Why would we purposely lie to you? We're not used car salesmen, out with a cheesey grin trying to keep you happy, we're there to shift traffic. We do our best to accommodate requests when we can and we do our best to keep you in the picture by giving you accurate information but if the information we are getting is inaccurate then it isn't our fault if you spin around the hold once more than expected.

15 minutes is a long time in this game, anything can happen. Don't accuse us of lying and bullsh***ing when you don't come off the hold the second you expect. We're all in this together with the aim of keeping delays to a minimum and keeping everyone in the picture. Stupid accusations like your's do nothing to help.

Why don't you come and visit us and see how it all works?

[Sean Dell]

I'd hardly consider an extra 6 minutes anything to get your knickers in a twist about.

Scuzi - it might be the difference between binning your alternate and committing (shock horror) to LHR.

In level flight on the Scarebus 6 mins is a tad over 200kgs of fuel. An approach into LHR from the stacks about 400-600kgs.

On a fair weather day (if there is such a thing any more) we aren't always awash with gas. Hence my point that the sooner we know an accurate figure (if poss) the better.

Cheers

SD

[Scuzi]

Of course, accurate figures as soon as possible are always welcome. They're not always possible though. Like I said, 15 minutes is a long time in this game and anything can happen. The figure you are given first might very well be accurate to the minute but by the time you get to the hold and spin a few times, the wind could have changed, there may have been a go around or two, there could be an infringer, an emergency, someone in the hold above you or in another hold could shout "pan pan"....anything could happen.

As was mentioned before, even something as simple as another controller taking the reins could increase the delay by a few minutes because, believe it or not, some may not be quite as good as others.

I haven't been on a fam flight into Heathrow in a while (one in the pipeline though) so I'm not quite familiar with how you plan your fuel but do you plan it that tight? I know 6 minutes can mean the difference between diverting or not, especially if you have been holding for a considerable time but 6 minutes on top of an expected 15 in the grand scheme of things isn't entirely unreasonable.


I agree entirely that we should do our best to keep the figures accurate and that the figures of recent haven't always been as accurate as we would like. However, I resent being accused of lying.