To Go or Not to Go

[JW411]

I was at Gatwick this afternoon on a social visit. As many of you know there were a fair few active Cbs in the vicinity. At one point there was a great big black one right off the end of 26L and it was raining cats and dogs with associated lightning.

I figured that there would now be a lull in the proceedings for 15 minutes or so while the thing drifted off to the south. To my surprise, a 773 set off down the runway like a submarine and vanished into the middle of it. He was followed by a 763 which got to about 1500 feet when a bolt of lightning came out of the cloud and I am 99% certain that he took a lightning strike.

Now I have been struck by lightning many times in the last 40 years or so and I realise that it seldom causes serious damage to the aircraft but it almost always causes a serious shortage of clean underwear in the passenger cabin! For the average punter this is not a good start to a flight.

I am fascinated to know why some people feel that they must get on with it come what may rather than wait a few minutes until the threat of microbursts, lightning strikes, severe turbulence and hail damage has moved away.

I can remember pulling my DC-10 into the layby on a Caribbean airfield for just this reason. It only took 10-15 minutes but during that time no less than 7 aircraft (including some brave bas**rd in a DC-3) went past me and vanished into the thing.

Is it commercial pressure or a lack of understanding of what can go wrong when you are at low level and heavy on take-off?

I am pleased to say that the next aircraft due for take-off was a Nigel 737 and he decided to wait. In my opinion he was a wise man.

[mr.777]

I flew back from HAV 2 weeks ago via KIN to LHR on Air Jamaica (A343).When we arrived at the airport,it looked very threatening weatherwise....in fact,only the night before I had remarked to my girlfriend that I was glad we weren't flying back then as there was a huge storm!
Anyway,storm kicked off fully just as we were about to board.Now speaking as a passenger and ex flight dispatcher (i.e I have some knowledege about wx conditions and flight ops,albeit limited!) I was pretty bloody glad our Capt.decided to wait......it was the folks on the AF 747 I felt for....you could see the staff trying to get everyone so they could get the hell out before the storm broke.It must have been scary stuff for them taking off in that.
As with previous post,just wondered what you drivers thought about this topic?

[Lou Scannon]

Like most pilots I have taken both options in the past. Working in the Far East I became a little blase about taking off into Cb's but like you, I started to sit at the hold for a while and decline to get airborne as I got older.

Funnily enough, the first time was on a DC10 in the Caribbean. Perhaps we know each other!

[fireflybob]

JW411, I am with you on this one.

It's just so obvious - why take off into potentially hazadous conditions? Take off and immediate climb thereafter are one of the more critical phases of flight.

Also, we should not base our actions on what everyone else is doing - the majority are not always correct.

My father, a veteran light a/c instructor who was still flying when he was 81, always told me that you are much better off down here wishing you were up there than up there wishing you were down here and that if you had the slightest doubt then do not take off!

[hobie]

FFB .... my father was a Spit pilot during you know what and after decommisioning never flew up front again ...... I suspect he had the latter view you mentioned ......

"up there wishing he was down here" .... lol

he never told us why !!!! ...... cheers .....

[Colonel Klink]

As with Lou, I worked in SE Asia for some time and some of the people I flew with were very blase about flying right into the throat of the biggest darkest cells I've ever seen. In this regard, the Indonesian pilots I worked with were the worst, as though the weather posed an insult to one's manhood. I decided when I was a captain, I would never treat the weather (and my crew) with such total disregard. But, a few years ago down at Nice one evening you would have sworn it was a total eclipse, the sky went black and it started a very nasty storm with rain like golf balls on the windshield, so after giving it a bit of thought I pulled back on stand (much to the relief of my FO) and we waited it out for twenty minutes or so. BMI had started up before us and he did the same. A couple departed into it, and who knows what sort of thumping they got, but I remember it well and would do the same tomorrow!!

[Devils Advocate]

Far better to be 30 minutes late departing the gate, than arriving even one minute early in the next life !

The people who blast off with Cb's sitting about the airfield, seemingly chuck common sense out of the window.
E.g. What if they suffer an engine failure or flameout just after lift off ? Now operating on a reduced number of donkeys, and with all of the potential for wind shear / hail / ice / flameout / etc - a time when you want everything going for you, and not for Mother Nature to be biting your sorry ass - but go figure ?!

So why not just wait it out - after all, the rest of your life as well as the priceless lives of your passengers sitting behind you are really not worth taking risks over - especially not for the sake of keeping to 'schedule' - and you can be certain that your pax will love you and your airline for not taking risks with their lives as, imho, nothing scares the crap out of pax more than you charging through a Cb in any stage of flight !

How about: “Ladies & gentlemen, boys & girls. We're just going to sit here for a few minutes whilst we wait for the thunderstorm(s) that are in the area to pass through. Once that has happened we'll be on our way and it shouldn’t inconvenience our timely arrival too much. That said, some of you might be able to see a few aircraft taking off into the storm but I trust that you’ll understand that, here at XYZ airline, we genuinely take the safety of our passengers very seriously – unlike some other airlines........ " aka. the ‘damned with faint praise’ approach.

[Tan]

Hmm I’m having a problem here. If the Captain of a flight decides to do a T/O on what he see’s and feels is safe operation, then what right do you have to armchair his decision? Were any of you in his seat? No, so please don’t second-guess the decisions of others.

It’s the same thing as arm chairing an incident or accident after the fact in my mind.

[heavy_landing]

Tan, point taken, but this is a forum and we should be able to debate sensibly.
I don't follow this 'I was the captain on the day and we're still alive' logic, otherwise we learn nothing from our experiences.

[fatboy slim]

This driver likes to stay as far as sensibly possible away from them darn storm clouds. 1. The Cabin crew get all upset, 2. The manufactuer has told us about double eng failures after a lightening stike and 3. its is very hard to do the crossword when your in them. I've seen just what 411 and Klink have seen, other crews blasting off into a storm and us sitting it out, I have no hesitation. Hell of a lot of energy in a full blown TS.

[Mister Slot]

Tan - evidently you do have a problem here. The captain's decision is not sacrosanct. It is most certainly open to question and scrutiny, not least if it is suspect or flawed.

The original post is not "arm-chairing" after sifting through an accident report with the advantage of an honours degree in hindsight. It is a legitimate question based on observation, personal experience and apparent incredulity at the decision made by some aircraft commanders.

As Lou Scannon said, in the past I have been taken there by others as well as myself. Having learnt through experience, now I'll sit at the holding point for the extra 10 or 15 minutes.

Just like the original post, I like many (albeit perhaps privately) will legitimately ask this very valid question in the same or similar circumstances.

[broadreach]

Tan, I hope that in your airline you are allowed to voice an opinion.

I'm a pax, have many friends up front and have been through too many sweaty TCs in the upper Amazon and elsewhere, and lost too many other friends to them, to be blasé. I'm with anyone - and their airline - who says "let's give it another fifteen minutes" even if that means missing my connection or having to go back for more fuel/overnighting in cockroachville/whatever.

But.... it's always comforting for the pax to come through and say "we're going to wait some fifteen minutes for the thunderclouds in our takeoff path to move aside, blah blah....", and, when the cb activity has passed from your straight-ahead view and is now providing the pax with a full fireworks display on the port/stbd side, "well it's moved aside now and even if it looks fierce to your left/right we'll be skirting the worst etc. blah blah..."

Now let me get back to my grandmother and those eggs she's trying to suck....

[Nineiron]

The view from the ground of an aircraft departing into weather can be quite misleading.
Its not many airfields that have weather radar that give a true picture of the magnitude and direction of storm cells. If you can line up or get into a layby and take up runway heading in order to have a look with your own radar, you might find that your departure will turn you well clear, whereas an observer would see you disappear into the black stuff.

[unwiseowl]

JW411 mentions commercial pressure as a possible cause for this behaviour. Well I think peer pressure is a much more powerful factor - "if others are departing it must be alright, mustn't it?"

[411A]

In some cases, the Captain has decided that it is safe to go, whereas the First Officer, having looked at the radar (while in the hold position, or close thereby) and definately does not like what he sees....what is he to do?

The wise Captain would have a think (what if he is right, even if he has never been before...or, he's to young to know...or, so what, my minds made up, going anyway, etc).

Hard to explain those big dents in the leading edge you received from hail to the Chief Pilot....and having the F/O saying..."told you so."

Perhaps a slightly longer think may be required.

[Ignition Override]

It is very tempting to second-guess others' decisions if we were not there, but as 411A, JW411 and others put it, if someone voices a concern, no matter what the latest wind reports is, there might be something nasty enough to scare the passengers and FAs, even if it results in just moderate turbulence-or much worse. How about also asking Tower or Dep. Control to check with the previous crew about what it was like? If our decision is to takeoff or land no matter what anybody says or reports, then all the theory we learned about systems, second segment climbs etc does us no good at all. To hell with the phrase "female intuition": if we listen to ours and it keeps us out of trouble, then they can call it anything they want, whatever the soundbyte. Interesting studies began several years ago about cultural effects on decision-making in the cockpit and CRM-that is, whether CRM is possible in many areas of the world. CRM was invented by people in the US and western Europe, "inspired" partly by a DC-8 crash in Portland, OR.

No matter what our company limitations say, combining very gusty winds with a wet runway and/or a chance of a microburst can result in far more than what the engine/aircraft combination can handle. I recently broke off an approach in which the quartering headwind gusted to about 30 knots on a wet runway and fairly thick rain. No traffic was ahead to report anything, but on the next approach just a few minutes later, a corporate jet relayed info and the shower had passed. This is one thing that reserve/contingency fuel is for.

The inbound L-1011 which crashed years ago by the fuel storage tanks at DFW never received the latest wind/turbulence reports, due to a communication gap between approach controllers with a shift change. The CVR had a segment in which the FE stated that his knees were knocking together or legs were shaking, or some such strange confession (very rare for any pilot to admit to, except after landing on an aircraft carrier at night), while they were inbound to the blob on radar, and due to what, the rough ride, strong rain, hail or vertical gusts-more than one?! From what I remember, the cell on radar was either not very large or did not appear very strong, with clear contours. I've heard the tape in recurrent tng. In our US system, all of these guys were experienced pilots, even if one were fairly new. And did the pilots in front understand what he said? Last night, a CRJ made a "pirep" for severe turbulence during final approach less than two miles from a runway here , and maybe it was over before they decided that a go-around was needed (+ and - 25 kts airspeed!!). Luckily the tower controller quickly decided to "turn the airport around" and let traffic land to the north, with weather cells just to the north and west.:D

[Globaliser]

fireflybob: My father ... always told me that you are much better off down here wishing you were up there than up there wishing you were down here ...As a pax, this is exactly what it would be great to hear on the PA.

[JW411]

Tan:

You are quite right, I was not on either of the flight decks. If I had been present then the parking brake would not have been released.

Perhaps I should explain that looking at what makes pilots tick is what I am paid for. I take pilots right through the simulator course from Ex.1 up to and including LST (Type Rating). I conduct Proficiency checks (OPC/LPC) and teach LOFT.

In the aircraft, I conduct Base Training, Line Training and Line Checks. I am constantly looking at the decision making process and trying to understand it and hopefully point pilots in the right direction.

There was no way that yesterday's Cb in question could have been avoided. It was right off the upwind end of the runway.

Now I have no responsibility for the crews concerned yesterday but we did have a very similar scenario at our base quite recently. Not one of our company pilots went flying and departures ceased for about 20 minutes. Had one of them done so, I would have been interested in hearing why taking on what I consider to be totally unquantifiable problems is better than being 20 minutes late.

[dgutte]

Back in September 94 I was sitting on an MD90 at La Guardia for 2 hours whilst the airport was shutdown for storms to pass.

Seemed to me from what the FO was telling us was that the airfield was closed for Take Offs at least. Occasionally the runway would open and someone would depart, I guess as ATC saw fit.

Even if we chose to go I don't think ATC would have let us.

[Wombat66]

As an ATCO, albeit a military one, I find it hard to believe that ATC would stop an aircraft from departing against the captain's wishes. We've had a fair amount of bad wx out here in the last few months, together with some fairly intensive ops. I've had no problem with aircraft lining up, taking a look at the storm ahead and saying "I think we'll just sit here for a bit". Ok so it totally knackers my carefully planned integration of deps and arr (Yes we do sometimes have a plan) but it's his decision. Likewise if the captain elects to depart, I would certainly pass on any relevant info from the metman or previous deps but I can't envisage a situation where I would not let him depart. Is it the case that in the civ world the airport operators can decide what's best for aircrew?

[Tan]

JW411

quote "You are quite right, I was not on either of the flight decks. " end of quote

Case closed...

[fireflybob]

One aspect which I do not think has been mentioned on this thread is the issue of slot times.

To an extent I think "slotmania" has exacerbated this problem. If you know that missing the slot means a (further) lengthy delay this can colour the judgement of even the most safety conscious pilot.

All accidents are a combination of circumstances but I believe that the system of flow control does not, in this respect, encourage us to ensure safe flight.

[PAXboy]

As the name says - I am Pax and can only view this topic from the back where the information I have is past experience and looking out of the window.

When I hear stories of people taking off into storms - I actively move that carrier down my preference list. I know, of course, that each f/c will make their own choice and you cannot expect the same result with every rotation. Except that, as pax, I do! I agree with fireflybob that 'slotmania' works against us all.

I want to know that my carrier will always skirt around cb activity and sit on the stand or even divert. On my regular trips to JNB I am always pleased when we sidestep the cbs over the equator. I like to see the red trail on the SkyMap showing me that the f/c want us to comfortable. That is what I am paying for.

I realise that a departure through dark cloud might turn out to uneventful. I realise that the folks sitting in the pointy end have pretty colours on the radar BUT!!!

In all of this the P/A is crucial. If you do decide to go, speak to us and reassure us that you have heard from a company a/c that just went through it. You can presume that most pax will not know how rapidly the situation can change in the five or fifteen minutes that it will take to get from the stand to line up!

Nowadays, because of wx radar and the great improvements in data transfer between a/c + met + ATC, we have much less turbulence than 20 or 30 years ago. Which means that pax are much less used to it. What is considered 'a light bounce' by the professionals might be considered 'heavy turbulence' by inexperienced pax and that view will be taken back to their friends and family, aka your customers!

I shall never forget going through an African thunderstorm at FL160 in a Viscount. Almost everyone was being ill and it seemed to go on for ever. :uhoh: That was 33 years ago and the flight crew would have had little choice but any modern carrier that puts me through an avoidable storm, will not see me again.

At JNB last December, there was the usual summer storm passing through and I was VERY pleased that the J41 captain said that we would be holding for 15 mins. As we turned onto 03L, he warned that it was still going to be bumpy. It was what I would call moderate turbulence but one woman still screamed out loud - despite having been warned, twice, about the bumps. We were out of it in ten minutes.

So - talk to us and tell us why we are going to be late! Will Ops be cross that you missed the slot and had another 30 mins wait? Yes. But, to most pax, airlines are 'all the same' and the only things that you can differentiate with are cabin service. Not making the passengers scream and throw up, is also a valid service to offer. :p

[JW411]

Tan:

I owe you a huge apology. I had fondly hoped that you might have had an interesting input to make to the debate but I now see that constructive dialogue is not your best suit. I deeply regret having made such a fundamental error of judgement.

[Land ASAP]

It's worth pointing out that yesterday provided exceptional Cb activity with hail stones measured at 15mm in diameter at the Met Office in Bracknell (15 miles west of LHR). Yesterday was not a day to discover what it's like to reach Aa in the midst of a 'red return' with Mod/Sev Continuous Turbulence whilst your leading edges and fan blades are being given that 'brushed metal' look that our wives keep asking for in our kitchen appliances these days....

[Avman]

Unfortunately I have read too many weather-related accident reports (of commercial airliners), one in particular involving an Fk-28 not all that far from home. Consequently, I too am a little nervous (as pax) about flying through severe wx. At work I have over the years noted the different attitudes of airmen. Consequently, I too have drawn up a mental list of airlines I will always avoid flying with. To all you cautious types I say thank you for considering the comfort of your passengers. Keep it that way. Tan , I think you are missing the point and too focussed on putting JW411 down. I'd rather have him flying me than you.

[Postman Plod]

Tan,

I note your planning doesn't take into account passenger comfort.... So you plan to fly through the face of a Cb regardless of what your pax might think? Just because its within aircraft limits (or your own personal limits), does it mean its within pax limits? What a way to start a trip - "my captain is going to kill me!"

You think a Cb takes account of any planning you might have made for any eventuality?? Just because the crew in front got through OK, does that mean you will? How do you plan for nature? Do things never change between flight planning and the flight deck?

I'd argue that JW411 WAS there yesterday - were you? He sounds expereinced enough to be able to tell an active Cb from a bit of Cu, and they weren't small cells either. Cb activity in the South East UK yesterday was pretty exceptional, and being acutely aware of of what a Cb can do to your day were you to fly through it, why take the risk when its planted itself right in front of you? It'll move soon enough....

Tell me what carrier you are with, and I'll make sure I never fly with them.

[Avman]

Well Tan, I note that most professional pilots on this thread appear to agree with JW411. You're entitled to your opinion, of course. Just for your information I have been involved with aviation in a professional capacity for 35 years and one thing is for sure, there are cowboys in every profession - including yours!

[kinsman]

If in any doubt don't go!

"better to be 20 mins late for this world than 20 years early for the next"

[Kwasi_Mensa]

Mr.Tan, would you be so kind to reveal the Airline you're flying for? Companies who employ gung-ho types like you will not get my patronage in the future. Seems you feel no responsability for pax whatsoever.

Recently my flight BKK-SIN was delayed for 45 mins because of a vicious thunderstorm. Not a single plane was departing.

Some years ago I was regularly travelling through ATL and experienced several delays between 30-60 mins due to thunderstorms, once in a plane on the taxi ramp, together with 5 other planes standing in line. I never heard a pax complain about the delay.

[Postman Plod]

Ah Tan, you're funny. :rolleyes:

Being a fully paid up aviation meteorologist gives me some idea of what I'm talking about, and possibly gives me a professional opinion on this subject. Have you got a professional opinion? Being a frequent passenger, possibly on one of your flights, gives me another reason to be concerned with this thread other than professional.

Anyway, what I guess you were trying to say with your previous post was that if you feel its unsafe, then you wont take off - yes? However, if someone else decided it was safe and took off, then thats their problem, not yours. Its not for you (or I guess any of the contributors to this thread) to comment on? yes? isn't flight safety everybodys problem? (sure that used to be a flight safety poster...)

This is a flight safety issue, and I guess wht the question really is, is what is it that makes someone go when its clear they are taking off into an active Cb? It doesn't just affect passenger (my)comfort, but aircraft safety (hey, you can check the history books if you dont believe me)

[av8boy]

Couple of things...

First, dgutte, as to the LGA departures being stopped and Occasionally the runway would open and someone would depart, I guess as ATC saw fit.-- as per FAAO 7110.65 (ATC Handbook--really not a PRIMARY source in this case, but hey, it was handy...): "Legally, only the airport management/military operations office can close a runway." Further:
3-3-2. CLOSED/UNSAFE RUNWAY INFORMATION

If an aircraft requests to takeoff, land, or touch-and-go on a closed or unsafe runway, inform the pilot the runway is closed or unsafe, and

a. If the pilot persists in his/her request, quote him/her the appropriate parts of the NOTAM applying to the runway and inform him/her that a clearance cannot be issued.

b. Then, if the pilot insists and in your opinion the intended operation would not adversely affect other traffic, inform him/her that the operation will be at his/her own risk.

********
The other thing I wanted to mention had to do with lining up to take a look at the weather. From my jaded ATC point of view... excellent idea. However, don't forget to communicate in addition to aviate.

There I was on a stormy afternoon, working departure control at a major (top 5) US airport (I'm trying to avoid names here). There's a big old cell camping about 3 miles off the departure end of the runway. I'm monitoring the tower freq as well, while I'm working departures. I hear the heavy jet talking to the tower.

Aviator: "Tower, ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy, ah, we'd like to line up here on the numbers for just a minute or so to let the radar take a look at that cell off the departure end if that'd be ok."
Tower: "ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy, approved. Taxi into position and hold. Let me know when you're ready to go."
Aviator: "Thanks. Be just a minute."

60 seconds later...

Aviator: "Tower, ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy is ready to roll."
Tower: "ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy, cleared for takeoff."
Aviator: "ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy is rolling."

30 seconds later...

Tower: "ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy, contact departure. Good day."
Aviator: "ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy, good day."

Now in my headset...

Aviator: "BigAirport Departure, ThoughtfulAir 22 heavy is with you out of eight hundred for five thousand and we need a 60 degree turn to the right for wx avoidance right now."
Me (quietly to myself): eeek!

Here's the deal (and I use that word advisably): anything more than say, a 25 degree turn would take this aircraft through the following, in this order:

-Departures from a parallel runway at the same airport (being worked by another controller)
-Arrivals to the same airport (being worked by still another controller)
-Departures from a second airport
-The airspace just off the departure end of a third airport, and
-Into rapidly rising terrain.

Let's just say that me and the captain, we worked something out. He avoided the weather, the traffic, the other airports and the terrain, and I avoided ending my career.

--Flash forward-- So, I'm sitting in the jump seat of a DC10 a few weeks later flying coast to coast in the US (different carrier). The FO and myself are chatting, and I think we're both learning something. Anyway, I tell this story. When I finish, the captain speaks up: "Well, what would you have had that captain do? Fly through the weather? I don't think you understand what a thunderstorm can do to an aircraft..."

See, this was a turning point for me. I've spent an entire career trying to bridge this pilot/controller gap whenever possible, and here I've apparently come off as either an ass or a fool in the midst of some impromptu continuing education. Clearly I was sending the wrong message...

As I explained to the captain (well enough to keep things friendly for the remaining three hours of the flight anyway), I am perfectly happy to bust my butt to make these kinds of things work. That's my job and I truly enjoy providing service. However, the airplane in question sat in position for more than a minute painting that cell. If the chaps in the pointy end of the aircraft developed a plan based upon what they'd seen, I would have sincerely appreciated it if they'd shared it with the local controller (tower) before they started to roll. You know, "Tower, it looks like we'll be needing a substantial crank to the right after departure to steer clear of the weather. Would you be kind enough to pass that on to departures?" Really. That's all it would have taken to save me the ulcer. I can still see that scope in my mind, with the airplane turning right to avoid the blob of weather but heading right for other airplanes, airports, and freaking houses. I remember thinking at the time "rock and a hard place."

Long story for a pretty succinct suggestion: share your plan. That's all I'm asking.

You know, it just occurred to me that this happened pretty close to 20 years ago. I might have to send PPrune a check to cover the psychoanalysis... I feel a little better!

Dave ;-)

[Jet_A_Knight]

Respectfully, Tan, criticising a less than prudent decision to depart into bad wx is not the same as armchairing an accident.

I put this to you: Would you still sit back and not criticise a captain for taking off with an engine fire if 'HE thought it was prudent to do so'? I suspect not!!

If you have the facts (or observed the same conditions), and then base your judgement on those facts and observations, judging a bad decision as a bad decision, is reasonable.

Alot of pilots fly with luck as their co-pilot, unaware of it until one day, somewhere- the luck runs out.

Accident investigation agencies are filled with reports of captains who thought the weather was a go!

[CAT1]

Personally, if I'm flying with an F/O who won't question a decision I have made that in their mind is wrong, I'd rather not get airborne at all. Weather or no weather. The idea of taking off with someone in the right hand seat who is s***ing themself and hasn't the balls to do anything about it, frankly, scares me more than a cb.

[Burger Thing]

Hey guys, now please take it easy. I think you are a bit harsh to Tan. I believe that he ment was that it easy to comment or armchair judge others decisions, but without having:

an actual picture of the radar
actual weather and wind reports
ATC observations
PIREPS
etc


it is just only that: armchair judgment. Nevertheless talking about commercial pressure or flying in bad waether is an interesting and necessary topic. But it should be held based on actual facts, personal experiences, and maybe not on what I saw outside the window looked like....

[JW411]

At the risk of wandering slightly off-topic, I had a recent conversation with an engineering friend on the subject of lightning strikes and he told me something that I never knew before.

Apparently if any rivets behind the initial strike location (as often as not, the radome) are also struck then they have to be drilled out and replaced. These "secondary" sites are sometimes quite hard to spot and might just appear as paint discolouration. This can be quite time-consuming and might be rather difficult to achieve at some destinations.

Burger King:

You have a perfectly valid point but I don't entirely buy it. I don't think it is absolutely necessary to actually be in the cockpit in order to start a discussion. Nobody on pprune at the moment was on board AMR587 but they have so far managed 15 pages of comment on the subject.

How many of you who make comments about Ryanair speeding on the ground have actually taxied a 737?

I have more than 40 years of professional flying experience (so far) and I thought it was reasonable to "express surprise" and hopefully start a useful discussion.

[kinsman]

I paraphrase a well-known saying “A superior pilot is one who uses his superior judgement to avoid the need to use his superior skill”.

Now Tan does make a valid point that many of us were not even at the airport when this incident took place! But when one observer mentioned lightning strikes close enough to one aircraft for him to be unsure if the aircraft were hit, then I would have to agree with most others on this forum. These crews seem to have been replying on superior skill rather than judgement!

If I had been a passenger on these aircraft I think I would take my business elsewhere in future! There really is no excuse for taking these sorts of chances with the paying publics lives. Obsession with on time performance and fuel policy may prove to be the root of such decisions.

I held on the ground at Gatwick a few years ago due to a line of thunderstorms, two other aircraft taxied out behind me from other operators. A Britannia aircraft made the same decision without any hesitation but the third aircraft from another well known operator was very keen to go but could not get past us. In the following few minutes the wind picked up to around 50kts and the rain reduced visibility to about 2000m. Within just a few minutes the wind swung 180 degrees. Ultimately we were on the ground for just over 15 minutes and had to taxi to the other end of the airfield due to a runway change. The Captain who had been keen to go returned to stand for more fuel!

[Just an Engineer]

There are other ramifications here that are not being discussed.

As an engineer a lightning strike is a right pain in the proverbial butt. In most cases once a strike has been entered into the Techlog it entails a lengthy inspection that will put a aircraft out of service for hours and often lose whole days flying.

As previously reported rivets often have to be replaced, engine filters checked , undercariages electrically checked/de-gaussed for residual magnetism, Airials replaced (ADF seems to particulary vulnerable), whole wing tips repaired, compass swings c/o etc. The Maintenance Manual checks runs into pages and pages. In a worst cases I have seen an entire row of cockpit EFIS screens having to be replaced at the cost of thousands of pounds or aircraft grounded for DAYS. This does not even calculate the extra cost in Engineering manpower, pax inconvenience from cancelled flights, incurred expenses due to bringing in chartered aircraft, the list is endless.

If you are on approach and you get struck then no complaints (not much room for manouevere) , however to take off just because of (say) a tight slot is not really thinking of the pax or operation as you are not just taking a risk on this one flight but all the other knock on flights that the aircraft has to do.

[PAXboy]

Just an engineer's setting out of the consequences of a strike, remind me of the bean counting a relative of mine encountered.

The maintenance crew at his base (not in this country) said that they would like the strobe lights turned off as soon as possible after reaching cruise - or even before cruise. This was because the stobe bulbs were very expensive.

Someone asked them if they knew that it was actually more expensive to replace the aircraft than the strobes ...

[JW411]

Just an Engineer:

Thank you very much for your contribution. It was quite illuminating (no pun intended) to hear your side of the problem. In my company a lightning strike is an automatic tech log entry and a mandatory occurence report has to be raised. I also take your point about being struck on the way down is bad luck but on the way up (if it can be avoided) is careless.

In the case in point I can see several scenarios. (For the reasons of simplicity I will take flooded runways, microbursts, hail damage and turbulence out of the equation).

You take a lightning strike immediately after take-off whilst headed for a distant destination with, let us say, 300 passengers. You discover that everything still seems to be working so you press on to your destination. On arrival it is discovered that a new radome is needed and 20-odd rivets, etc, etc need to be replaced. The inbound passengers, apart from the state of their underpants and their mental health are glad to get off but the returning 300 passengers are less than happy to discover that the aircraft is going to be tech for some considerable time. The company is less than thrilled with the situation because, apart from anything else, they don't have hotac for the 300 outbound passengers and don't want to pay for it anyway.

Alternatively, you take off and take a lightning strike and then decide to return to have the aircraft checked. This will involve dumping lots and lots of expensive fuel and now 300 + another 300 passengers are going to be pi**ed off.

My alternative is to sit on your a**e for 20 minutes and avoid all of the angst and inevitable paperwork. The few people on this thread who cannot seem to accept the obvious would also appear to have no regard for the passengers who pay their wages and even object to them having access to pprune.

How sad.

[Final 3 Greens]

Tan

I was airborne in the SE UK about the time JW411 and witnessed the CB activity and it's intensity.

But of course, because I am only a PPL with several hundred hours of experience, including time in aircraft with WX radar (on which I was trained), I suppose that my opinion is meaningless to you.

JW411

I am surprised that anyone would have taken off into the base of the CBs that looked pretty fierce as our crew manoeuvred carefully around them, with the seat belt sign on in the cruise. Not a bump was felt, but at least one pax appreciated the airmanship displayed.

Of course, tan is invulnerable to CB activities so I must fly with him in the future - not.

[Sobelena]

I think that if there's someone with a problem on this forum it's possibly you Tan. It's a fact of life that whilst the vast majority will make a balanced decision based on available data and personal experience, there are those who may just allow 'other' factors to influence them into throwing caution to the wind and go. And yes, 99.99% of the time they'll get away with it. I understand what you are saying but you seem to be missing the point that perhaps not all are as disciplined in their decision making. The proof is in a fair number of accident reports!

[Sobelena]

And you're talking about CRM :hmm: Now that's funny :ok: :D

[WHBM]

Just a different comment for a moment:

Is part of the problem that Punctuality Statistics get solemnly recorded and published in "league tables" by airline, ending up in the press, taking no account of why any delay occurs. The implication in these tables is that more delays = poor operator. So being sensible about the weather drives you down these tables.

[CaptainJurassic]

:p Way back in during my stint in the Vietnam war, a crusty old Lt. Col. told me when discussing a similar subject that it is far better to be alive and in trouble with the boss than be a dead hot shot; a piece of advice that I have assiduously followed during the last 30 odd accident and incident free years of professional flying. Sit it out dude, and have a cup of coffee while you watch the show.

[pigboat]

Capt J, ya remember which USAF base had the slogan "There ain't no need to fly through a thunderstorm in peacetime?":D

[av8boy]

Capt J, ya remember which USAF base had the slogan "There ain't no need to fly through a thunderstorm in peacetime?"

KDMA. Flew through a thunderstorm more than once on the way in there. 141. Peacetime. Summer. A billion degrees. Tiny little black flies on the ramp. They bit and flew up my nose. But being in the presence of all that history made it worth it.

[Wot No Engines]

As a humble PAX who flys gliders, may I request that those "brave" pilots willing to takeoff into a Cb read this AAIB report - http://www.aaib.dft.gov.uk/bulletin/dec99/bga3705.htm

And in particular,
The Action Integral energy level of this strike was assessed, by test and calculation, to have been at least some 8 to 9 fold higher than the Action Integral level specified in Advisory Circular AC 20-53A which lightning certificated aircraft are currently required to tolerate with minimal damage.

What damage would this have caused to a 737 ?

This strike was close to Luton.

[Kwasi_Mensa]

Mr.Tan, please accept my humble apologies, I forgot you were God.

[zoru]

Mr Tan

please do us all a favour and go play with your flight sim 2003.

[PAXboy]

This board may have a number of non-pilot types but I think I am safe in saying that the pax that comment here are not your regular pax.

We travel often and have a genuine interest in the business. Some of us pay our own tickets and pay for them in Premium, Biz and First. I am not going to start a P. game as to who-has-the-biggest-hours but I have been a pax for 38 years across a rather large selection of aircraft. Having lived in Africa, I have seen Cb activity! All that I have read in this confirms that I would be anxious about continuing a journey folliwng a lightning strike.

From one poster who states that he is a Captain ... "How immature and just the type that no one wants flying on their airline. What are these brilliant types telling the poor passenger seating next to them? Probably scaring them half to death with their half-baked ideas."

Let me know your airline and I shall oblige by not flying on it and save you the trouble of having to impress me with your skills. As to scaring them? I am one of those that spends time reassuring the nervous pax next to me.

I have often had to spend half an hour during taxy/departure to explain all the noises to my neighbour. Tell them how long I have been flying and never an incident, when I would rather be reading my book or looking out of the window. I tell people to turn off their mobile phones when I hear them switch on during the roll out or taxy. I have helped c/c to coax a child out from under the seat so that it could be secured for landing. This took ten minutes, another five and we would have had to hold whilst we continued to get this screaming brat to do as it's mother failed to get it to do. I have called c/c when I spotted a pax that was unrestrained due to a broken belt and the cabin was now insecure. Sorry if that offends your need to be in control, there are more stories like that. :rolleyes:

The only one I left recently was a neighbour telling his female that the aircraft was all computer driven and the dangers blah blah (it was a 738) but the flight was too short and view too beautiful to miss.

As to Pilot In Command. Yes, I can see that this is a major issue that I cannot comment on. My nephew is a Captain, so discussing matters with him is as close as I can get. Captains get paid to listen and judge. If that judgement leads to them endangering their a/c, then they have failed.

WHBM - Punctuality Statistics. I think this is the problem, pure and simple. In the UK we have very low levels of Cb activity by comparison to others - such as the USA - and that might make it more difficult for the passengers to understand the risks. Fortunately, we have experienced folk up front to do that for us.

[kinsman]

Tan

I don't know if your just having fun winding up some of the others but if your comments on this thread reflect your real opinions then I hope we work for seperate employers!;)

[Final 3 Greens]

Well "Ace" next time I lose an engine or have some other unpleasant experience I’ll be sure to call you up and solicit your advice. All that knowledge and only 200 hours Wow...I'm impressed. However I fly that much in a little over two months and my 340 even has it's own WX color radar, well actually two of them, but who's counting oh yeah I forgot they overlay. What will they think of next, maybe my F/O’s will even let me use it? lol

I'll give Tan 2/10 for this reply. 1/10 for the effort of speaking to a greatly inferior species and 1/10 for trying to be ironic, even if he/she managed only crude sarcasm. However, you do have to give credit for the attempt and perhaps I should award the third point for spelling Tan correctly, in line with the old school system of ensuring that no one ever scored a zero in an exam.

By the way Tan, as you intend to 'solicit' my advice and my diary is a bit full at the moment, let me advise that if you lose an engine next time, try asking an engineer to help after you land - they normally find them on the pylon under the wing.

I've got a bit more than 200 hours now (probably a fortnight's systems monitoring for you), must update the profile, but I often find in my job that experience is rather over valued, usually by people who rely on seniority for tenure rather than exceptional skill and continuous improvement.

You must be very senior to earn enough money to own your own Airbus, I can only afford a very small airplane myself.

[Parapunter]

Just like WNE, I'm also a glider-bothering pax, but I have a tale to tell.

A couple of years ago, a Croatian Paraglider pilot (who shall remain nameless) turned up on his local mountain with a couple of mates, looking for an afternoons soaring fun. It was a nice hot, prefrontal day, lots of Cb's around & due to the temperature, they all lobbed off only in t-shirts and shorts.

before too long, the Croatian started to get a good strong climb. This developed into a really strong climb & before much longer, the vario was screaming as he found himself blasting up through the atmosphere at something like 40 feet per second, 2,400 ft/min if you will.

Realising he was being hoovered into a cunim, and hardly dressed for the occassion, he knew that he risked (among other things) being frozen to death, so with great presence of mind (finally), he deployed his reserve parachute, collapsed his glider & wrapped it around himself for insulation.

Eventually he passed out from Hypoxia & finally came to, under his reserve, drenched and frozen.

The barograph print out from his vario confirmed that he had climbed to 23,000 ft ato & travelled 50km downwind from launch, as a result of one Cb. He was also incredibly lucky not to have died from lightning, hailstones, oxygen starvation etc.

This is a true story and can be checked out at www.xcmag.com (The croation survivor).

I've always had the utmost respect for Wx, you feel it a lot more on an oversized kite bobbing along at 20 kmh.

[swish266]

Common Sense.
Comes only with experience, like ****ing.
There are so many variations of the sit... I've seen a Macho start to roll, only to stop (not even abort) and advise all us "prudes" to sit it out with a bit of a grating voice (most profies know about this kinda voice).
Common Sense.
Pitty we do not have IT from the start of our careers. Could have saved lives and money... And manuals could have been written in ink, rather than blood...:(

[Avman]

Thank you PAXboy for taking the trouble to respond to Captain (???) Tan. I couldn't be bothered. I don't have a problem with his opinion. It's just a great shame that such a magnificent human specimen and skilled pilot can't find a more mature manner with which to express himself. CRM ! I wonder what his F/Os think of him?

[DistantRumble]

Paxboy's last is seconded.

[nurjio]

Captain (Tan)tastic - I'd follow him, and I'm sure it's a him, anywhere.

But wait a mo...then again, maybe I wouldn't...coz I've just figured it all out. Tan was the sort of dependable type who, in a previous life, would have selected a 2000 pound, delayed fuse, sub-terranean mud shifter in order to take out a (conscripted) enemy sniper....oh happy days.

Did I use too many commas in all of that?

[steamchicken]

...but only out of curiosity! (I think that's the punchline..)

[Final 3 Greens]

nurjio

No - you don't understand.

The issue is apparently about the Captains authority being undermined by all of us scruffy pax who sit in a cabin with a reinforced door between us and flight deck, engaging in subversive anti aviation activities, such as me explaining to a nervous traveller next to me on Sunday last that it's normal for a 146 to make a funny noise when the flaps are retracted and all is okay.

Of course, in Tan's case, the door is to keep him/her away from us:D :D :D and has been specially designed for this purpose by the customer servbices and revenue management departments :}

[nurjio]

Final 3 Greens:

I understand perfectly, believe me...... I was only having a bit of fun whilst, at the same time, choking on the stupidity of so many folk (but not all) on both sides of the reinforced door. It's just that I couldn't think of anything else to say at half three this afternoon. You see it was raining here and my golf match had been called off and the grass in my lovely back garden was too wet to mow. Instead, I found myself having a good old browse (the wife was shopping, otherwise, well, you know..) and I stumbled across this thread.

Now for my piece, the issue of 'to go or not to go' in the face of adverse weather is critical to the safe operation of any aircraft. After 25 years of slipping the surly bonds I didn't get where I am today by...........hang on a minute, it's stopped raining and she's back from shopping. I'm off to mow a meadow..then cut the lawn..then play golf.


One last thing before I go go - I think you'll find it's.... "Finals, 3 Greens".... after all, it was the Brits that invented retractable Dunlops.

[Final 3 Greens]

nurjio

Please don't apologise - I nearly fell off my chair laughing at your post and should have put an icon early to show appreciation of it :O It reminded me of something I heard on a training programme in the US years ago about 'bunker busters', but this isn't the time or place for that one....

My comment about the reinforced door was meant to be in the same vein ;)

Hope you enjoyed the golf, especially the 'final 3 greens' ;)

F3G

[JW411]

PAXboy:

As a business traveller and you really do want to take avoiding action then it should not be too difficult. There are not very many operators in North America that have 340s with dual colour radar that can overlap and that also have 320s.

I can only think of one and it is already in deep financial sh*t. If I've got it right, one of my sons lives out there and he describes them as a national disgrace.

[slim_slag]

100 hours a month in a 340 huh? That must work out to around 10 take off decisions a month, and a handful of hours at altitudes where the weather is relevant. I'd be more impressed by what the short haul 737 and turboprop drivers have to say about this. I'd even listen to the light aircraft pilots who have to pick their way between cells with a stormscope if they want to get to their destination. We don't have the luxury of FL410 like a 340 driver. Of course their opinions do not count to some :)

I once went flying with a 744 long range captain, this was in a country where they have a strange rule that means you don't need a clearance to play in the clouds in class E. We were therefore not talking to ATC. There were towering CB around, and this guy was remarking on one of them. "I took a 747 into one of those once, thought I had bent the wings." "Company SOPs say we have to keep our 747 twenty five miles from those monsters". "Have you even been in one of those?". I said no, so he took us in so I could "find out what it is like". This was in a warrior!

It was so black in there I thought somebody had turned the sun off. At one stage my ears told me we were inverted, and if the gyros would stay still for long enough they would have said we were not far off! We made it out alive, and as with all flights I learned several things. 1) Warriors do not belong at the base of a towering CB. 2) Some long haul captains are friggen idiots. Luckily for us, 99% of them are seriously responsible people, and CRM is a big deal :)

[Final 3 Greens]

JW

Thanks for your reply to Paxboy.

I'm working in the north of FLA next month and need to book a 'J' class ticket next week - no prize for guessing who won't be getting my 3.5K, especially as one should expect a few CBs down that way at this time of year. Of course, I'm only a PPL so I don't know what a CB is :D

[pigboat]

Thanks av8, I suspected it was DMA.:cool:
If I may, I would like to comment on one of your previous posts re the turn after take-off. I've used the "line up and take a look" option in the face of CB activity. If it looked like we required a turn of xx degrees either way after take-off, we requested it from ATC. If they were able to accommodate we launched. If not, we waited. In other words the ultimate deciding factor in a go/no-go decision was whether we could safely turn after take-off to avoid the weather. I can only recall ever being refused twice.

Just an Engineer, I seem to remember that Rolls-Royce also had a special maintenance item, on the Dart and Spey anyway, that had to be performed if the aircraft suffered a lightning strike. I belive the oil screens had to be pulled to check for ferrous metal.

[Burger Thing]

This is one of the worst threads, pprune has seen for a long time. Moderators, please close it down. :yuk:

[Final 3 Greens]

Burger Thing

You don't have to read it.

[WestWind1950]

@Burger thing

I think this is a great thread and is only being spoiled by remarks like yours and those from Tan. There are a lot of very professional comments being said and also the comments of "simple" PPL'ers and Pax is important and constructive.
Personally, I think Tan has an ego problem. A question was asked and opinions were uttered... so where's the problem? that's what a forum is all about!! just let us all discuss the situation and stop commenting on our "qualification" to do so!

My personal opinion: if in doubt, wait it out!!! (didn't know I was a poet :p )

WestWind 1950

[AtlPax]

...snip...
The inbound L-1011 which crashed years ago by the fuel storage tanks at DFW never received the latest wind/turbulence reports, due to a communication gap between approach controllers with a shift change. The CVR had a segment in which the FE stated that his knees were knocking together or legs were shaking, or some such strange confession, while they were inbound to the blob on radar, and due to what, the rough ride, strong rain, hail or vertical gusts-more than one?! From what I rmember, the cell on radar was either not very large or did not appear very strong. I've heard the tape in recurrent tng. In our US system, none of these guys were inexperienced pilots. And did the pilots in front understand what he said? It might be only spoeculation.

Delta ft191 - I believe the F/E said something like:

"There's lightning coming out of that one."

"huh"

F/E: "There's lightning coming out of That one!

[JW411]

Tan:

I thank you for your kind email. I do indeed have a very good lawyer. Furthermore, I also have a pretty comprehensive legal insurance package.

[JW411]

Tan:

I see you have sent me another email. I have no intentions of answering them. If you have anything to say then please do it here on pprune. Thank you.

[Burger Thing]

No, Westwind 1950, this is not a great thread and I will explain you why. It based on some observations and assumptions, without having the facts of a radar picture, tower observations, wind reports, etc. Even if JW411 has 100 years of experience, observations through the window can be misleading. And especially with his experience he should know, that the decission making process in these times is very difficult, because of the immense commercial pressure we all suffer from. And he does our proffession harm, if he starts to criticize other crews decissions, based on assumptions without having the facts.

Maybe TAN was a bit blunt with his short statements, nevertheless he was right. He is as unhappy as me, that the thread started like this one. And what were the replies? Things like So you plan to fly through the face of a Cb regardless of what your pax might think? Just because its within aircraft limits (or your own personal limits), does it mean its within pax limits? What a way to start a trip .... there are cowboys in every profession - including yours! .... Mr.Tan, would you be so kind to reveal the Airline you're flying for? Companies who employ gung-ho types like you will not get my patronage in the future. Seems you feel no responsability for pax whatsoever.... please do us all a favour and go play with your flight sim 2003.


He didn's say at all, that he would depart into bad weather. He only said that he didn't like the fact the somebody criticizing others based on observations through the window. Nothing more. But certain people started bashing on him, like a sandbag. , even making a cowboy out of him. Some people think, it is funny, some others think, that this thread is full of professional comments. I don't see too many.

And maybe JW411 was right about what he saw, but starting threads like this will only lead into more threads, where people feel encouraged to comment about something, having maybe only second or third hand knowledge.

[WestWind1950]

thanks for your reply Burger Thing... but I think some of you misunderstand the purpose of such forums...

The question I think is not really why this particular pilot made the right decision in going, though observed conditions said maybe he shouldn't have, but whether in general a decision is made to go due to peer or company pressures, ignoring pax comfort and "higher" risks. The reply's from Tan make me almost wonder if he was the pilot involved and has a bad concience!

Unfortunately, the pressures of company, slots, scheduling, "return home", peers, etc. sometimes make the best pilot into a "cowboy". If he's lucky, nothing will happen. But if he missed calculated just a tiny bit, then we have another sad event to fill the press and spoil our stastistics.

It was good for me to hear that the majority would prefer to wait it out.... better to be safe then sorry, as the old saying goes.

Keep flying!
WestWind1950

[Ignition Override]

AtlPax: Very good point-I had forgotten that part.

That accident supposedly motivated the airlines (at least in the US) and manufacturers (?) to seriously change their procedures for both windshear recovery and (later) stall recovery. From what we heard, that 1011 possibly could have climbed out at "max power": with all throttle levers full fwd against the stops. They then could have had major engine inspections, but that might have been the only problem except from overdoses of adrenaline and finding a runway with no storm cells over or next to final approach. Those microbursts were not understand or even researched until not many years ago.

[Hues500]

On take off from a country aerodrome many years ago, I looked out the side window of a DC-3 and saw the gum trees going past. I raced up to the cockpit and the pilot obviously had his hands full keeping the aircraft off the ground with full power. The thunderstorm was about 5 miles away! :ugh:

[AfricanSkies]

1) What's 15 minutes in your life?


2) What would the AIB say?

[knobbygb]

Funnily enough, earlier today and before reading this thread, I was re-reading an account of the PanAm 727 windshear crash on departue from New Orleans in July 1982. The weather over the UK the last couple of days prompted me to dig the book out and take a look.

That accident seems more relevant to this discussion than the Delta L1011 one mentioned above. The 727 was departing directly under an active cell and only reached an altitude of about 100ft before encountering decreasing wind shear of 48kts and a vertical windspeed of 600fpm. There was a USAir DC-9 waiting to depart directly behind the 727 and the DC-9 captain commented just before the crash "We'll see how PanAm does, then we'll take a look". Now, if he'd just happened to push back 2 minutes earlier and been in front of the PanAm, would he have departed into the storm like all the other aircraft before him had done?

I first read that account a few years back while on holiday, just a few days before a flight from Minneapolis in what seemed like very similar weather conditions. I was a little worried at the time as we sat in that DC-9 and aimed for what seemed like a VERY small hole in the clouds, but just trusted the pilot knew what he was doing. We made what seemed a very steep climb and a turn of about 90 degrees off track and in the end it was a bit bumpy but nothing more. Most other PAX didn't even notice what was outside the windows.

Now I'm a PPL I take a rather more active interest in this kind of thing and am greatful to those who have made sensible comments on this and other threads. Long live this kind of 'constructive critisism'. I don't see this thread as second guessing the captain concerned in the original 'incident' who is, after all, annonymous. This could well be some hypothetical case and is well worth discussing.

[Flight Safety]

Tan, just because the regulations give you command of your aircraft, and make you solely responsible for making the final decisions regarding the safety of your aircraft and all souls on board, DOES NOT means that you will automatically make the correct decisions. The reason JW411 brought up this subject (being a training captain) is to help other pilots make the correct decisions under these circumstances.

Since pilots need to make good decisions each time they fly, let's think through the consequences of making the decision to take off into an active storm cell just off the end of the runway.

Scenario #1 - Nothing bad happens. The turbulance may be enough to scare many passengers, who tell the tale for weeks and maybe years to come, about how that pilot from ABC airlines flew us through an active thunderstorm.

Scenario #2 - A turbulence injury or death occurs. All passengers are supposed to have their seat belts fastened, but what if someone does not. Your airline may be held liable for the death or injuries, and your name as pilot in command will appear on the incident report. Again, a good story for many to tell.

Scenario #3 - A lightning strike occurs. Your passengers are scared out of their wits, and the aircraft has to undergo a lengthy lightning strike check in the shop, and is out of service for several days at additional cost to your airline. Your passengers now have a lifetime story to tell about your airline, to anyone who will listen.

Scenario #4 - A crash occurs, and you and many passengers survive. You now have to defend yourself for the rest of your life, and your name as pilot in command will appear in a fair number of training syllabus around the world for years to come. Your family will also suffer the same fate with you. Your airline is liable, and will spend millions settling claims for months and perhaps years to come. Your airline may also spend millions in a PR campaign to improve its public image after your crash. Your training captain may also be scapegoated and have his career ruined in the process.

Senario #5 - A crash occurs, and you die. This is much like scenario 4, except that your wife (or husband) is left a widow, and your children will be missing a parent. They will have to live with the error they will eventually know that you caused. Even worse, they may live in denial that you caused the error, and may spend the rest of their lives defending you.

So now thinking this through, what decision will you make when you have a plane full of passengers and a storm is passing over the takeoff end of the runway?

Decision #1 - I'm in charge of this aircraft, and my authority should never be questioned. The concerns of my co-pilot don't matter, I'm in charge here.

Decision #2 - I'll put a lawyer on retainer, just in case anyone questions the decisions that I'm making. I'll make sure he's the shrewdest lawyer I can find. Furthermore, I'll be sure and tell him that I have $100,000 in savings so he can put up the best possible defense on my behalf. I'll also listen carefully when he winks at me and tells me that as a consummate professional who charges $325 an hour, he'll be very efficient in the use of my funds if he has to defend me. I'll notice that he winks at me again, assuring me that he's the shrewdest lawyer in the business.

Decision #3 - I'll build a case against my training captain if he should dare question the decisions that I'm making. It won't matter if he has an accident free record, and the line captains and F/Os under him also have an accident free record. I'll destroy his career before he can destroy me.

Decision #4 - I'll wait 15 minutes or so for the storm to pass off the end of the runway.

Think about it.

[Sleeve Wing]

Just logged on after a few weeks away.
What a super thread and, apart from a few crass comments, what a cracking debate.
After a long career in the military and the airline business, being regularly subjected to such Wx.-borne indignities, I can only reiterate the wise counsel of an old Kiwi mate of mine.
He'd started his career as a crop-sprayer in PNG and his attitude was "I'm not going into that, it's got a fart in it."
:ok:
Keep paying the taxes, guys.

Sleeve.

[reverserunlocked]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the L1011 windshear accident was unavoidable, or certainly once they'd got into the shear it wasn't, at least.

I recall the excellent 'Black Box' program that pops up on Discovery Channel now and again featuring this accident and the programme makers actually visited a Delta sim where a Training Captain recreated the approach with the conditions encountered that day. It made harrowing viewing with the guy fighting with it all the way whilst the GPWS screamed 'windshear', 'sink rate' and 'pull up' at him. He didn't make it, incidentally, and the impact was certainly not survivable.

The aircraft in the sim was a 767, don't know whether the lack of the third engine would make a lot of difference to the crew's ability to get out of trouble.

[PAXboy]

A related thread is running in Tech Log about lightning strikes. It was started in 1999(!) which just goes to show that Danny's little helpers DO have everything stored away carefully on floppy disk!

One of the interesting aspects is reports of Ball Lightning being generated inside the flight deck and running down the aisle. Apparently the hosties thought that they were about to be toasties.

In the second post of the thread a number of problems are detailed by Checkboard a tech moderator, I shorten here:

"It has been suggested that aircraft showing symptoms of static electricity (P static on the radio, or St Elmos fire) may be leaving an ionised wake, it is also possible that the jet exhaust leaves a similar wake, even if the aircraft isn't being charged by the environment. This wake acts as a charge path, so aircraft actually trigger lightning."

This puts an interesting turn on the debate! He then mentions fuel explosion but that is very rare these days.

"The next worse thing that can happen is flame out (engine failure). Single flameouts due lightning strikes are fairly common on aircraft with aft mounted engines, dual flameouts have occured, although no accidents seem to have been recorded.

Small electric shocks have been reported by pilots, but nothing incapacitating.

Beyond this, various types of structural, avionics, electrical and magnatizing damage is possible. I have pictures of radomes blown apart, wing leading edges peeled back at the rivet line and such. This type of physical damage is usually cased by the sudden heat expansion of air due to arcing within an enclosed part of the aircraft structure, but is fairly rare.

Most of this information can be found in the excellent "Severe Weather Flying" by Dennis Newton."

The thread was used again in 200 but has lain quiet for three years. One of the most recent postings is from one who calls himself Tan.
Couldn't resist that.

[Postman Plod]

Burger Thing - thanks for selectively quoting me (amd somebody else?) but I'm not saying that Tan would fly in those conditions - I think he pretty much said himself that he would make the go / no go decision based on what confronted him. Fair enough. I dont like his attitude to debate on flight safety matters, which is why I would prefer not to risk flying with him. Nobodys perfect....

What I do have a problem with is trying to stifle an excellent flight safety debate about natural phenomenon. Its not about second guessing, its about what can (and does) happen if you fly through a Cb!

[Kwasi_Mensa]

Think it has been posted before, but seems appropriate to post the link again in this thread:

Lightning strike of an airplane (http://airlinebiz.com/wire/ana)

[Postman Plod]

Sorry - something else just occured to me. Please remember that meteorological observations and the METARS you fly on, until very recently, relied almost completely on the Mk 1 eyeball (although generally not through a window.... we did go outside to look at the clouds...)

Similarly, what could look like a perfectly innocent fluffy little CB (ahem) could in fact be hiding a whole heap of trouble. Weather radar or no weather radar. :E

[broadreach]

WestWind1950

You triggered a few memories with "return home".

One: Late sixties, Alitalia DC-8, Lima-Caracas-Lisbon(could have been Madrid)-Rome. Lightning strike about ten minutes out of Maiquetia. Flash of light, big bang, lights out for 3-5sec. Uneventful flight thereafter, not a peep from up front and we continued to Lisbon or Madrid.

Two: 24 December 1971. Lansa L188A flight Lima-Pucallpa-Iquitos-Pucallpa-Lima. 0600 departure from Lima would allow a few hours leeway to get back and depart from daylight-only Pucallpa. This particular flight was late departing Lima due to weather in Pucallpa, took off around 1100 or slightly later but still just barely inside the Pucallpa return daylight window. Pucallpa itself had cleared but the CBs had moved between there and Lima and the Lansa crew were faced with either going through and still making the window on the way back, or skirting the weather and definitely missing the "return home" window for Xmas Eve dinner.

They dedided to go through but didn't make it very far. Whether the wing root failed first due to excessive control inputs, or if the aircraft was hit by lightning that set it afire is a moot point. On the CVR the first officer called it lightning, stbd wing folding and the aircraft disintegrated at fl210.

There was one survivor, Juliana Koepke, a teenage girl, about whom Werner Herzog made a documentary a few years ago. The row of seats she and her mother were in came down through the trees back-first and Juliana's worst injury was, if I remember correctly, a broken collarbone. She ate berries, found a stream, followed it to a river, swam/floated downstream and dragged herself up the bank at a hut, reappeared some twelve days later, after the search for survivors had been suspended.

Yes, all that was in the days prior to really good weather radar. I'm (almost) perfectly happy on a thirty-minute rollercoaster ride between Sao Paulo and Rio with a lot of lightning about. But plain old judgement was not much different thirty years ago to what it is today, nor is the "return home" syndrome. So I appreciate the "We're going to give this weather time to move aside, sorry if you miss appointments" message from flight deck to cabin.

[Burger Thing]

Postman Pod:

I think he pretty much said himself that he would make the go / no go decision based on what confronted him.

You would be surprised how many times you have to make decisions in real life, based on what is confronting you... And I am not only talking about weather.

Ah, yes, but somebody said he saw something through the window what other crew did and another person comes up and tells, that you shouldn't judge others withouth having the clear picture. This person just MUST be a dangerous cowboy.... :rolleyes:

What made me sour, ist that I have a feeling that this thread didn't start as a discussion about safety matters, it started as a critcism about other crews without having the facts. And when I read (really :yuk: ) statements like:

I can only think of one and it is already in deep financial sh*t. If I've got it right, one of my sons lives out there and he describes them as a national disgrace.

makes me wonder if JW411, who started this thread was really sincere about a good safety discussion.

[Jump Complete]

I think this is a very usefull topic for flight saftey. As a F/ATPL who is relatively experienced in light aircraft but inexperienced in comparison with many of the posters on here, and has yet to get to the flight-deck of a large commercial aircraft, I find it very usefull.

As a matter of fact, when flying last Sunday, (18/05/03) I was returning to the airfield with parachutist still on board (as a gust of 29 kts had crossed the airfield). On short finals the wind was given at about 40 degrees off the runway at about 25 kts, and very gusty. I think the wind must have changed to a quartering tailwind in the last moments of the approach as I was still airborne half-way down the runway, at which point I went round. The initial climb was non-existant, I kept having to lower the nose to maintian airspeed and we were at about 100' for what felt like ages. Needless to say the noise abatement turn went out the window! As I climbed away I looked right to see everything looked very black and horrible, and realised if I didn't get it on the ground the next time, I would be in the middle of it. I decided not to even try, and diverted to a near-by gliding field which was down-wind of the weather and had an into wind runway. The parachutist', who as any of you who have done para-flying will know, rarely give the pilots much respect or slack, were very happy with my decision!
They had sat through previous landings with me in rough conditions so they knew I can handle it but I think that approach had them a little worried as it was so rough.
It bol***ed up the afternoons schedule but who cares?
As it happens I was told that evening by the CFI of the flying club on the same airfield that 'I chose the worst moment to land, if I had tried again I wouldn't have had a problem' but I'm still happy with my decision. Landing a light aircraft (no weather radar, no iceing protection) on the edge of a CB would not have been fun and whilst we obviously carry reserves we don't have that much fuel on board with para opps.
Maybe its not quite the same as airline operations with slot pressures and large finacial implications to every decision but the princibles the same. Incidently isn't it strange how these desicions come easier with increasing experience?

[RatherBeFlying]

So far, I've only experienced light turbulence in the back -- and quite a few occasions of moderate turbulence in light a/c.

Light turbulence in the upper regime of what is officially defined as light gets a LOT of attention in the back.

I've had a passenger confess to me after a flight where I experienced nothing untowards great relief after surviving what they considered nasty turbulence when it was nothing more than a few bumps that I felt unworthy of comment. And that passenger during the flight sitting next to me was puttting up a brave, silent front, even though concerned.

A cabin going through moderate turbulence would not be a sight for the fainthearted.

[Ignition Override]

My comments about the 1011 on "final" approach to DFW were there because it was the only weather accident for which I could remember more than one or two general facts. Any aircraft certainly has far less energy on takeoff roll than during final approach-and no ATC slots. Also, on some aircraft the windshear computers work very slowly when flaps/slats are in transit.

A recent commentary about some general aviation accidents in "Flying" magazine (US) stated that pilots find it harder to divert [or go-around?] when approaching their home airport, which by itself can be a very different topic, but "get-home-itis" can influence a pilot's judgement at anytime on the last leg of a trip. Never mind the other pilot who has a tight connection to commute home-but that's too bad for him/her. Don't let them bug you, whether the other person is the Captain or not. Do a large percentage of pilots with foreign airlines commute by air or a long train ride?:hmm:

[Cornish Jack]

ReverserUnlocked
Re. the DFW L1011, as regards the survivability, if you have the opportunity, watch the AA training video dealing with microbursts etc. It looks at that accident from the hindsight viewpoint of the flight recorder outputs - in particular the readouts of alpha AND energy. From that standpoint, the conclusion has to be that the incident was TECHNICALLY recoverable, however, there was (of course) NO alpha readout available to the crew and the IAS was up and down like a professional lady on pay night.
Together with the other four segments of that training series, it ought to be required viewing for all heavy crews - if only to engender the sort of discussion which is going on here.

[JW411]

I have been floating around the skies for the last 8 days and so I have only just caught up with the thread.

Burger Thing:

My only motive is a flight safety motive. I am simply interested in what makes pilots tick.

Flight Safety:

I thought your posting was excellent. Certainly it should make people think and this is surely the object of the exercise.

PaxBoy:

I have only experienced ball lightning inside the aircraft once. It happened to me about 35 years ago over the Masif in France. As you know, it is a harmless phenomenon (as far as damaging human beings is concerned) but it certainly gets your attention!

Apart from raising the hairs on the back of the neck the other thing that I vividly remember was that all the dust and sh*t that had been hiding behind the instrument panels etc for years ended up in suspension so we all ended up coughing and sneezing!

[don't trust anybody]

well, funny how that happens isn't it.
For those of you who are happy to blunder blindly off into the maelstrom have a look at the thread entitled hailstones and maybe you will think twice next time.

[kinsman]

JW411

I would be very interested in hearing more about your ball lightning experience. I have never come across anyone who has experienced it and would be very interested to hear more.

[JW411]

kinsman:

I was flying 4-engined turboprops at the time and we were usually stuck around 15,000 feet or even lower. The weather radar was not very reliable and it seemed that it was the first casualty if lightning was around.

We were headed northbound from Malta at night and were over the Masif in France surrounded by nasty weather. There was a bit of a bang and there was this orange/red incandescent ball (about the size of a football) in the cockpit moving aft. It then went backwards through the cabin and disappeared out the back according to the loadmaster.

I freely admit that I was somewhat taken aback by this turn of events but my hoary old captain assured me that it was harmless.

Afterwards, the loadmaster was adamant that he had watched it come down the the starboard wing before entering the aircraft.

I have subsequently met a few pilots who have experienced the phenomena. I suppose it might have been more common in those days due to the heights we were flying at?