Average US flight 17 pax

[b1lanc]

"Even after grounding more than 3,000 aircraft, or nearly 50% of the active U.S. fleet, the group said its member carriers, which include the four largest U.S. airlines, are averaging just 17 passengers per domestic flight and 29 passengers per international flight."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/coronavirus-us-airlines-10b-travel-decline

Shouldn't have to worry about social distancing at this rate.

[Pistonprop]

I really can't see any significant improvement until such a time that:
a) An effective vaccine is found and available, or b) an effective treatment is found which can effectively and successfully treat anyone who becomes infected.

[Airbubba]

Got another update from my buddy Ed Bastain at Delta.

Here's the new plan for packing the planes:



Requiring masks to keep everyone safe. Providing every person with an extra layer of protection will help make your travel experience safe. That’s why we are temporarily requiring face masks or face coverings (https://click.o.delta.com/u/?qs=c12fd532954a85b4c269f16606148b67a2b85d9a349a0bbae8846845 34265d1ce7771446495f06b12f13b8e84bed01668a0e1bad4343b259) for everyone – Delta employees included – in the check-in lobby, Delta Sky Clubs®, gate areas, jet bridges and on board our aircraft. If you find yourself without a face mask or covering, don’t hesitate to ask our team for one – we’re here for you.


Giving you more space onboard with new seating policies. Limiting the number of people you pass on the way to your seat and providing you with additional space is a priority. For these reasons, we recently started back-to-front boarding (https://click.o.delta.com/u/?qs=c12fd532954a85b4e5d6058b5bab5a68998e531aa7ac355e747b2f10 007e24ec6e3fffc62f2a251b67cf7ab7b12442bfdd030bdb1ccea3bb), capped seating (https://click.o.delta.com/u/?qs=c12fd532954a85b4f7f89fda799a311e4a235742b6457bd23f53b4b0 6f32055fbfb6fc4f2a6fe00c110b84ebba94e93fa0784d9e343b29ed)at 50 percent in First Class and 60 percent in Main Cabin, and created new seating policies that keep middle seats blocked. On planes without middle seats, we are blocking select aisle and window seats to give you even more peace of mind during your travels. And as you deplane, please take time to create distance for those ahead of you to exit.

[patrickal]

Got another update from my buddy Ed Bastain at Delta.

Here's the new plan for packing the planes:

What will be the net effect on ticket pricing because of this?

[b1lanc]

Got another update from my buddy Ed Bastain at Delta.

Here's the new plan for packing the planes:
Think they have a long way to go from 17 pax to 60% capacity and that 60% will be paying for the empty 40% seats too!

[Airbubba]

And, with these new seating plans, will some seats actually be removed to save weight if they won't be used for a while? Will the FAA required number of flight attendants be reduced under 121.391? Seems like traditionally seating capacity for Part 121 purposes meant installed seats even of they were blocked for some reason.

[Cat Techie]

No one wants to fly unless they have to. That is the be all and end all of it . POTUS can twitter as much as he likes, but people will not fly unless they have had it or know they have had it .

[Airbubba]

Regulations says minimum1 flight attendant per 50 passengers or part thereof. That is by actual total number of passengers per flight and not by number of seats.

So, if those 17 pax show up on a 777 they only need one flight attendant?

That's a new one on me. ;)

§ 121.391 Flight attendants.

(a) Except as specified in § 121.393 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/121.393) and § 121.394 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/121.394), each certificate holder must provide at least the following flight attendants (https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/index.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=2f1af0f9044814fea7cf42cc99e0e8d9&term_occur=999&term_src=Title:14:Chapter:I:Subchapter:G:Part:121:Subpart:M: 121.391) on board each passenger-carrying airplane (https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/index.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=ee9803083700896cd85aff74cb4f95ea&term_occur=999&term_src=Title:14:Chapter:I:Subchapter:G:Part:121:Subpart:M: 121.391) when passengers are on board:

(4) For airplanes (https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/index.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=ee9803083700896cd85aff74cb4f95ea&term_occur=999&term_src=Title:14:Chapter:I:Subchapter:G:Part:121:Subpart:M: 121.391) having a seating capacity of more than 100 passengers - two flight attendants (https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/index.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=2f1af0f9044814fea7cf42cc99e0e8d9&term_occur=999&term_src=Title:14:Chapter:I:Subchapter:G:Part:121:Subpart:M: 121.391) plus one additional flight attendant (https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/index.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=2f1af0f9044814fea7cf42cc99e0e8d9&term_occur=999&term_src=Title:14:Chapter:I:Subchapter:G:Part:121:Subpart:M: 121.391) for each unit (or part of a unit) of 50 passenger seats above a seating capacity of 100 passengers.


https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/121.391

[Bend alot]

Seating capped at 50% in first class & 60% in main cabin.

Nice lip service on social distancing.

[b1lanc]

So, if those 17 pax show up on a 777 they only need one flight attendant?

That's a new one on me. ;)

Maybe the PM will do double duty. Does that count?

[Airbubba]

Looks like United has not implemented social distancing seating on some flights yet.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1077x946/herman_ual_1038ae4d965b8773fa81716ddf1263ec028e9553.jpg

[Airbubba]

I see that the 50 seat is the general rule from the FAA. However EASA allows variations based on that each aircraft type comes from the manufacturer with a minimum cabin crew requirment based on its emergency evacuation testing.

Well, you just told me above it depended on the actual number of pax and not the seats:

Regulations says minimum1 flight attendant per 50 passengers or part thereof. That is by actual total number of passengers per flight and not by number of seats.

Do you know or are you making this up as you go along? :confused:

You could also argue that if a plane has 3 different passenger compartments but only 1 of them is open for passengers does it still have the full complement of seats or just the ones in the opened compartment. Sample if downstairs was closed for passengers on a 747 should one only count the upstairs seats.

I think you've just admitted that you don't know what you are talking about.

[Long Haul]

I have been on nine flights since the quarantines went into effect and the number of passengers have varied from zero to 100 or so, with the median being about fifteen. These were all on aircraft with capacity around 300. The number of flight attendants really won’t change because they need to have enough for the trip out and back, and It’s not like they are short of personnel. What strikes me now, after having to line up with the rest of the passengers at ORD to deplane one at a time for health screening, is how much of a pain in the butt this is going to be once the planes are full again. People are going to freak out if they have to sit next to a stranger, and some airlines block the middle seats, some block the aisle seats, etc. Not to mention health forms, mandatory mask wearing and reductions in service. It is going to be a long summer for those of us who fly for a living.

[b1lanc]

I have been on nine flights since the quarantines went into effect and the number of passengers have varied from zero to 100 or so, with the median being about fifteen. These were all on aircraft with capacity around 300. The number of flight attendants really won’t change because they need to have enough for the trip out and back, and It’s not like they are short of personnel. What strikes me now, after having to line up with the rest of the passengers at ORD to deplane one at a time for health screening, is how much of a pain in the butt this is going to be once the planes are full again. People are going to freak out if they have to sit next to a stranger, and some airlines block the middle seats, some block the aisle seats, etc. Not to mention health forms, mandatory mask wearing and reductions in service. It is going to be a long summer for those of us who fly for a living.
Don't forget the TSA - you know changes are coming.

[Long Haul]

Don't forget the TSA - you know changes are coming.

I have actually noticed that security screening lines are back in some places at some times, but mostly because there is only one checkpoint open.

[Long Haul]

And, with these new seating plans, will some seats actually be removed to save weight if they won't be used for a while? Will the FAA required number of flight attendants be reduced under 121.391? Seems like traditionally seating capacity for Part 121 purposes meant installed seats even of they were blocked for some reason.

Personally I think that the airlines will block x- number of seats “in the interest of crew & passenger safety” until the day after the number of booked seats is equal to or is greater than the seat capacity minus x, at which point flying with full cabins will once again be deemed safe as brick houses.

[5000 metres]

Got another update from my buddy Ed Bastain at Delta.

Here's the new plan for packing the planes:

Delta statement: "Face coverings will be required starting in the check-in lobby and across Delta touchpoints including Delta Sky Clubs, boarding gate areas, jet bridges and on board the aircraft for the duration of the flight -- except during meal service."

[cappt]

Looks like United has not implemented social distancing seating on some flights yet.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1077x946/herman_ual_1038ae4d965b8773fa81716ddf1263ec028e9553.jpg
That's good to see! This is a country on the move, we can't sit still for too long, people are getting edgy. The 2.2 million forecasted dead by that UK expert (cheater) was a hoax.

[Bend alot]

Great photos of all the different masks - the child in me just wants to deploy the oxy masks!

[LGW Vulture]

That's good to see! This is a country on the move, we can't sit still for too long, people are getting edgy. The 2.2 million forecasted dead by that UK expert (cheater) was a hoax.

Hear hear.......

[cats_five]

That's good to see! This is a country on the move, we can't sit still for too long, people are getting edgy. The 2.2 million forecasted dead by that UK expert (cheater) was a hoax.

It wasn't a hoax. It was the forecast if no preventative measures were taken.

"In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months. In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the G.B. and U.S. populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic… In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in G.B. and 2.2 million in the U.S., not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

Remember it's far from over, so the numbers are far from complete.

[StAn gelo]

No one wants to fly unless they have to. That is the be all and end all of it . POTUS can twitter as much as he likes, but people will not fly unless they have had it or know they have had it .
Precisely : i doubt many people want to risk catching this on their outbound flight,or at their destination, and having to deal with the consequences of trying to get home again in a seat as opposed to a wooden box in the hold.

[ivor toolbox]

And, with these new seating plans, will some seats actually be removed to save weight if they won't be used for a while? Will the FAA required number of flight attendants be reduced under 121.391? Seems like traditionally seating capacity for Part 121 purposes meant installed seats even of they were blocked for some reason.

Majority of seats are manufactured as groups of two or three , you cant just remove the middle one of a three and leave 2 behind...they have a common frame.

Ttfn

[fdcg27]

"Even after grounding more than 3,000 aircraft, or nearly 50% of the active U.S. fleet, the group said its member carriers, which include the four largest U.S. airlines, are averaging just 17 passengers per domestic flight and 29 passengers per international flight."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/coronavirus-us-airlines-10b-travel-decline

Shouldn't have to worry about social distancing at this rate.

Sounds pretty bad.
OTOH, US carriers are required to fly a number of routes as well as pay crew whether they fly or not as well as ground staff under the terms of the airline bailout.
Many of these carriers have take-or-pay contracts for more fuel than they're now using and all have plenty of surplus aircraft available so nothing is going to need anything more than minor line maintenance. They'll just either use up old equipment close to retirement or rotate aircraft in and out of storage or both.
Most of us won't return to air travel until we've either had a positive antibody test, a vaccination or an effective medical treatment is identified and proven in use.
Would be a nice time to fly but most of us remain too risk-averse to try it.

[CaptainMongo]

TSA year over year passenger count as of May 8 was about 8.3% of last years May 8 numbers.


March 1 numbers at 99% (2.3 million) .
Mid March - 59% (1.25 million) .
April 1 - 6.9% (136,000)
The numbers bottomed out mid April at about 3.9% (87,000).
May 1 - 6.74% (171,000) and now at 8.5% (215,000)

Just typing that makes me ill.

[GoldenGooseGuy]

The economics of airlines, being so asset-heavy with leased equipment and ongoing maintenance, puts them in the position of not being able to scale up and down easily or park all the aircraft, so the only short-term solution is to continue a sort of forced musical chairs, flying aircraft with a virus mitigation strategy, while they unravel the extra assets to right size the airline for at a minimum, another flu season. Regardless of where the broader economy goes, airlines are going to have to shrink to a level where it will take them years to achieve what will be seen in the future as the glory days of 2019.

[West Coast]

The TSA screening numbers are on the rise. As the economy opens, it requires business travel and the screening values reflect that. The airlines have also quickly adapted. 7-8 flights a day between two hubs yield low pax counts, drop that to 2-3 a day and the values go up. My DH on 787 DFW-LAX a few days back was 2/3rds full.

From the low of 87,534 screenings on 4/14/2020 to the high since then of 215,444 on 5/8/2020 shows a early, positive trend.

A friend owns a company that has a machine that uses water jets to cut parts. It’s been broken since about the start of Covid19. Finally the technician from New Jersey is flying out to fix it. Business travel isn’t all suits who have the option of zooming instead, it takes a persons traveling to keep businesses moving.

[b1lanc]

7-8 flights a day between two hubs yield low pax counts, drop that to 2-3 a day and the values go up. My DH on 787 DFW-LAX a few days back was 2/3rds full.

I have concerns that my local favorite regional airport may become cargo only. Two of the four majors have already pulled out. Despite an 80% departure reduction (based upon last year), the few remaining flights are only 10-20% full.

[West Coast]

That sound like an invite for some later date for whatever ULLC exists in your country to initiate service.

[b1lanc]

That sound like an invite for some later date for whatever ULLC exists in your country to initiate service.
US and SW is already the largest carrier. Sigh

[West Coast]

Not sure I would categorize SWA as a ULCC. Occasionally purchase tickets when we have to be somewhere on a particular date, SWA is often more expensive than other carriers.

More think of Frontier, Spirit and Allegiant. Perhaps you get a flight and a chance to watch a fist fight in the flight levels on Spirit.

[Airbubba]

The airlines already see the 'mask wars' coming between the pax and crew.

May 12, 2020 / 5:00 PM / Updated 2 hours agoExclusive: U.S. airlines tell crews not to force passengers to wear masks
Tracy Rucinski (https://www.reuters.com/journalists/tracy-rucinski)(Reuters) - The top three U.S. airlines have told their flight attendants not to force passengers to comply with their new policy requiring face coverings, just encourage them to do so, according to employee policies reviewed by Reuters.

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O (https://www.reuters.com/companies/AAL.O)), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N (https://www.reuters.com/companies/DAL.N)) and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O (https://www.reuters.com/companies/UAL.O)) have told employees that they may deny boarding at the gate to anyone not wearing a face covering, and are providing masks to passengers who do not have them, the three carriers told Reuters.

Inside the plane, enforcement becomes more difficult.

“Once on board and off the gate, the face covering policy becomes more lenient. The flight attendant’s role is informational, not enforcement, with respect to the face covering policy,” American told its pilots in a message seen by Reuters explaining its policy, which went into effect on Monday.

“Bottom line to the pilots: a passenger on board your aircraft who is being compliant with the exception of wearing a face covering is NOT considered disruptive enough to trigger a Threat Level 1 response,” referring to some kind of intentional disruption by a passenger that could cause the captain to divert the flight.

American spokesman Joshua Freed said: “American, like other U.S. airlines, requires customers to wear a face covering while on board, and this requirement is enforced at the gate while boarding. We also remind customers with announcements both during boarding and at departure.”

A United spokeswoman also said that any non-compliance by travelers would be addressed at the gate and that flight attendants had been counseled to use their “de-escalation skills” on the aircraft and to reseat any passengers as needed.

Delta said it had a similar policy.‘ENCOURAGE THEM TO COMPLY’All three airlines offer certain exemptions for young children or people with medical conditions or disabilities, and when people are eating or drinking.

“If the customer chooses not to comply for other reasons, please encourage them to comply, but do not escalate further,” American told flight attendants in a message on Friday that it provided to Reuters.

“Likewise, if a customer is frustrated by another customer’s lack of face covering, please use situational awareness to de-escalate the situation,” it said.

U.S. travel demand has fallen by about 94% in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, prompting carriers to slash their flying schedules to roughly 30% of normal this month. With fewer planes in the skies, some are flying near capacity.

Global airlines body IATA came out last week in favor of passengers wearing masks onboard, as debate intensifies in the United States on the role that government agencies should play in mandating new safety measures for flying before a vaccine is developed.

While major U.S. airlines have individually mandated facial coverings, the Federal Aviation Administration has declined to implement the requirement, and it is not clear if the agency has the authority to compel passengers to wear face masks.

In a statement on Tuesday, the FAA said it would continue to engage in discussions about protecting the health and safety of flight crews and the traveling public and was “lending aviation expertise to federal public health agencies and airlines as they issue guidance for crew members, including health monitoring, screening protocols and aircraft cleaning.”

Several airline union groups have called for a federal mandate on measures including masks, social distancing and cleaning.

“Airlines are implementing policies on the fly with essentially no coordination or direction from the federal government,” said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, representing nearly 50,000 flight attendants at 19 airlines.

“We need federal requirements that mitigate risk during this pandemic and put the safety of crews and the traveling public first.”

[FLCH]

Looks like United has not implemented social distancing seating on some flights yet.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1077x946/herman_ual_1038ae4d965b8773fa81716ddf1263ec028e9553.jpg

We’re gonna die on this flight .....but it’s ok to do this at Home Depot and not think a damn about this

[Airbubba]

An update on the crewing situation at United from this Reuters article:

May 15, 2020 / 12:19 PM /

Exclusive: United Airlines only needs 3,000 of 25,000 flight attendants in June - sources

Tracy Rucinski (https://www.reuters.com/journalists/tracy-rucinski)(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O (https://www.reuters.com/companies/UAL.O)) has told staff that it only has work for about 3,000 of its about 25,000 flight attendants in June, sources said, and warned of job losses if demand does not recover by the time government payroll aid expires in the fall.

United is paying flight attendants until Sept. 30 thanks largely to $5 billion the airline is receiving in government payroll aid under the CARES Act, which prohibits any job or pay cuts for employees before October.

Chicago-based United and other airlines have begun to share more details with employees about the scale of their dilemma in trying to match crews and fleets to an uncertain recovery from the economic crisis sparked by the new coronavirus pandemic, which has sent the global economy into a tailspin.

United’s flying schedule is down by about 90%. It and other U.S. airlines have slashed the number of flights and are scrambling to reduce a collective $10 billion monthly cash burn.

“If you just look at a way in which our network is flying we’d need about 3,000 flight attendants to fly our schedule for June,” United’s managing director of inflight crew resourcing, Michael Sasse told staff last week, according to people who listened to an employee briefing call.

That number cannot be extrapolated to the company’s potential staffing needs going forward, he said, adding that United does not want to cut deeper than needed and is still trying to get a better picture of how demand will evolve.

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N (https://www.reuters.com/companies/DAL.N)) told its 14,500 pilots on Thursday that it expects to have 7,000 more than it needs in the fall, according to a memo first reported by Reuters.

United President Scott Kirby told investors this month he intends to keep the flying schedule at around 10% of normal until demand recovers.

“But if demand remains significantly diminished on Oct. 1, we simply won’t be able to endure this crisis ... without implementing some of the more difficult and painful actions,” said Kirby, who takes over as CEO next week.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-united-arlns-exclu/exclusive-united-airlines-only-needs-3000-of-25000-flight-attendants-in-june-sources-idUSKBN22R2MJ

[jan99]

We want to fly between AMS, LAX and JFK because that is were our close family is.
In the current situation we will not be buying tickets, because there is no telling what the experience will be.
We are waiting for a thorough, rigorous, enforced proposition from the airlines that:
- guarantees that we will not be infected,
- makes us believe the guarantee.
We don't mind paying a multiple of last year's price, if that is what it takes - we will adjust the frequency of trips as well as our flying budget.
Sofar the airlines seem to have no idea.

[Pilot DAR]

We are waiting for a thorough, rigorous, enforced proposal from the airlines that:
- guarantees that we will not be infected,
- makes us believe the guarantee.

Wow, if you can ever get a guarantee like that from an airline, I'll be amazed! You can't get a guarantee that you'll arrive without being involved in an accident, nor that you baggage will arrive to the same place you do, so I can't imagine a health guarantee, for which evidence will only exist days after you've left the flight. Until this past February, I regularly flew through AMS KLM business class. I got off a regional KLM flight, with a coughing person in the back. How happy I was to be sitting in row 1. 'Plane stops on a stand, and we all board a bus to the terminal. Who's sitting beside me on the bus? Coughing guy... So much for my buying business class to increase my distance from other people!

If you want a guarantee, buy the plane! I now do my local business travel in one of my planes - guarantee no infectious person in the plane with me!

[Winemaker]

It's not getting any friendlier for passengers. My brother is flying HSV to SEA in late June. Here's what happened to him; I quote his email to me
This is all on United Airlines:
Originally, I was scheduled to fly HSV to ORD to SEA on 6/26.
United cancelled flights and rerouted me HSV to IAH to DEN to SEA. Hopefully this will hold up.

If you try to book a flight for the same date (on United), these are the only routing options available:
HSV-IAH-SFO-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-TUS-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-SAN-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-SNA-DEN-SEA

and so on. Basically, they're trying to get to the DEN-SEA flight any which way that they can. It looks like all of the nonstop flights from Houston and Chicago to Seattle are either too early in the morning or have been taken off the schedule. Pricewise, it has gotten really costly, too. To fly on those dates (6/26-7/14) on United now is around $1000.00 for economy seats.

Of course, there are other options available with other airlines but I had a credit with United that I wanted to use.

[West Coast]

I hope your brother understands UA is in survival mode as are other airlines. Trying to provide a service while also trying to ensure the survival of the company. That’s an unhappy balance for both the airline and the passenger, I get it.

[jan99]

Wow, if you can ever get a guarantee like that from an airline, I'll be amazed!
Guarantee may be too strong. But the airline product needs safety rules for anti-infection as effective as those the XAA have in place to assure survivable landings. Provided they want to sell people like me (age 70) a ticket.

[b1lanc]

Guarantee may be too strong. But the airline product needs safety rules for anti-infection as effective as those the XAA have in place to assure survivable landings. Provided they want to sell people like me (age 70) a ticket.

Nobody can ever guarantee anti-infection - not in the food stores, not in any mass transit, and not even in the hospital. Even a flu shot every year does not guarantee you will not get the seasonal flu. Never seen a guarantee of survivable landings either. Maybe it's time to bring back the flight/life insurance kiosks that we used to have in all airports in the '50s and '60s.

What will keep me from flying? The fact that to go east coast to Idaho, I'd have to sleep in O'Hare, Philadelphia, or Charlotte overnight to get there with no return itinerary available. At that point, I start thinking about an RV and to heck with flying for personal reasons since I don't have my own aircraft - nothing open anyway at the other end. The gov't can still send me TDY, but I'll do so reluctantly since there is nobody on the far end to work with either.

[LapSap]

That's good to see! This is a country on the move, we can't sit still for too long, people are getting edgy. The 2.2 million forecasted dead by that UK expert (cheater) was a hoax.

People are getting edgy?? What, after just 8 weeks?
Seriously?
So symptomatic of the last 2-3 generations of petulant children ( now ‘adults’), that can’t stand the slightest bit of inconvenience in their lives.
Recent VE/ANZAC remembrance services reminded my of the hardship people went though 70 years ago; 5-6 YEARS of the same **** we are experiencing now- except a LOT worse!
Also demonstrative of the type of Society we have built is the fact that large numbers of businesses and individuals cannot even support themselves for a month without Government support.