Ryanair to cut flight schedules over 80% then ground airline

[Airbubba]

A customer notice:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1086x815/etzswsbxsaaciwv_8b18c34d3a90422bddacb79d18109b067025fd9a.jpg

[SOPS]

This is getting ugly, very fast,

[Skyjob]

Is it better for more people to get COVID-19 quicker and most to get over it, creating a situation where infection increases in a shorter amount of time a larger percentage of the population, and thus becoming resistant going forward, or delaying more people getting the virus faster by implementing these draconian governmental measures and causing financial ruin to many businesses and individuals in the process

[Radgirl]

Is it better for more people to get COVID-19 quicker and most to get over it, creating a situation where infection increases in a shorter amount of time a larger percentage of the population, and thus becoming resistant going forward

No absolutely not
We are talking about dying.
We need to shut borders, lock down and test. Several weeks ago. No ifs no buts.

If we had done so early enough we would be coming out the other end. The longer the delay the worse it will be medically and economically. The UK government must wake up.

In any case there is no knowledge as to how long exposure protects you. It may be short term, it may be the virus mutates. The only protection is to develop one of the vaccines and to trial the drugs identified by AI. Both the other side of the potential second wave

[aerodestination]

No absolutely not
We are talking about dying.
We need to shut borders, lock down and test. Several weeks ago. No ifs no buts.

If we had done so early enough we would be coming out the other end. The longer the delay the worse it will be medically and economically. The UK government must wake up.

In any case there is no knowledge as to how long exposure protects you. It may be short term, it may be the virus mutates. The only protection is to develop one of the vaccines and to trial the drugs identified by AI. Both the other side of the potential second wave

we could have done that a couple of months ago. For that, now it's way too late and the virus can not be controlled. And if we can control the virus the likely hood of a second wave will be very large. At this moment a complete lockdown does not make much sense since it will not isolate the virus anymore.

Hang on everybody. It's going to be a very tough year.

[DuncanDoenitz]

At the risk of straying outside the field of expertise of an Aviation Forum; we need to maintain a ratio of Infected to Carers/Food-Providers/Society-in-General. We have to assume that Governments Globally are devising their strategies in the light of model simulations to achieve this. We can't all be allowed to get it at once because we would overstretch the care system or starve, but most of us need to get it, come through the other side, and support the rest.

Yes, people will die. Its war. Stuff happens.

[Jagwar]

If that's the case, we will experience a double whammy; deaths from Covid and deaths from vastly increased levels of worldwide poverty....

[Radgirl]

Agree we are way too late but if you dont lockdown we may get an attack rate of 60% and a death rate of 3-4%. I will leave you to work it out. I dont think society will accept that

There is no 'control'. In the longer term we will vaccinate or treat with drugs. Meantime we have to reduce the transmission rate, currently up to 3.6, to below 1. When each patient infects less than one other person we win as the virus only survives by infecting new people. That is why early lockdown gives faster results because the pool of infected patients is lower and the virus dies out in less cycles.

I agree it is going to be more than tough. Luckily I have a medical as well as an aviation career but I am old enough to remember depressions when aviation was on its knees. It did bounce back. This is not a monetary issue. When people can re engage with each other and shop safely they will spend.

Keep safe

[Capt Scribble]

Businesses do not bounce back from bankruptcy. Nature will prevail and sadly remove the weak, it does so with flu every year. This virus seems to be more effective in its transmission but herd immunity is likely before an effective vaccine.

[golfyankeesierra]

Will there be any paycheck for RYR pilots? Especially those who get paid by the hour?

[Oh gaim]

Will there be any paycheck for RYR pilots? Especially those who get paid by the hour?
I will be impressed if I’m wrong but sadly I can guess that the answer will be no

any news yet?

Seems some managements are much more open and communicative than others.

[rotorwills]

It would be foolish to believe that MOL would abandon his flight crew. No pilots no airplane flights, no revenue.

Not that I have any information or inside knowledge, but I expect that they will pay maintainability salary to all crew whilst the emergency continues. Knowing that FR have bags of cash, better placed financially I believe than any other Airline serving Europe, they will emerge and take up the vast majority of pax soon as the panic finishes. In fact the delayed max was a god send to them as their expansion plans were binned. They have Germany, Malta and Poland bases with low operating cost.

I would wager a reasonable amount on FR devouring the rest of us, I mean compared to them we look like dinosaurs. They aren't around now.

[qwertyuiop]

Ryanair have huge cash reserves but they will be consumed at a ferocious rate if the aircraft don’t fly. They are EI registered and I’m not sure Leo V has the funds to help.

[Tom!]

Also unlike a lot of other airlines Ryanair outright owns over 90% of their fleet so no lease payments to worry about while they are parked up.

[rotorwills]

Ryanair have huge cash reserves but they will be consumed at a ferocious rate if the aircraft don’t fly. They are EI registered and I’m not sure Leo V has the funds to help.


Bit puzzled here as can't think why their cash, which I believe is a big pile, would be eaten up. However you are right about Leo, nor much in the coffers there, but can't imagine MOL not looking at some sort of tax deal.

Don't like MOL but you have to admire his achievements. He's been lucky along the way, mind. But they say that about the Irish. Lol

[MCDU2]

Irish credit rating is quite high and therefore they have access to debt if they so wished. They could provide interest bearing loans with covenants covering debt repayments and conversion to equity if not repaid on time. Could make the Irish government a tidy profit. Just like Air NZ just received.

[sleeper]

It would be foolish to believe that MOL would abandon his flight crew. No pilots no airplane flights, no revenue.

Not that I have any information or inside knowledge, but I expect that they will pay maintainability salary to all crew whilst the emergency continues. Knowing that FR have bags of cash, better placed financially I believe than any other Airline serving Europe, they will emerge and take up the vast majority of pax soon as the panic finishes. In fact the delayed max was a god send to them as their expansion plans were binned. They have Germany, Malta and Poland bases with low operating cost.

I would wager a reasonable amount on FR devouring the rest of us, I mean compared to them we look like dinosaurs. They aren't around now.

Just in case you are not being sarcastic, ryan air hires most aircrew and pays for flight hours. No flight , no pay.

[cashash]

If that's the case, we will experience a double whammy; deaths from Covid and deaths from vastly increased levels of worldwide poverty....

But with all business shut down we will see a reduction in deaths from the lower pollution levels..

Interesting times..

[topolino99]

Also unlike a lot of other airlines Ryanair outright owns over 90% of their fleet so no lease payments to worry about while they are parked up.
From their 2019 annual report
***
At March 31, 2019, Ryanair had a fleet of 455 Boeing 737-800 aircraft, 144 of which were funded by Ex-Im Bank-guaranteed financing. Other sources of on-balance-sheet aircraft financing utilized by Ryanair are Japanese Operating Leases with Call Options (“JOLCOs”), which are treated as finance leases (12 of the aircraft in the fleet as of March 31, 2019) and commercial debt financing (3 of the aircraft in the fleet as of March 31, 2019). Of Ryanair’s total fleet of 455 Boeing 737- 800 aircraft at March 31, 2019 there were 26 aircraft which were financed through operating lease arrangements, 183 aircraft were financed from Ryanair’s own resources on an unsecured basis and the remaining 87 aircraft have no outstanding debt remaining. Ryanair has generally been able to generate sufficient funds from operations to meet its nonaircraft acquisition-related working capital requirement
***

[vikingivesterled]

The Max debacle could be Ryanair's saviour. Instead of now parking 20 new owned Max they have 2 billion extra in cash. Probably the same for some other airlines.
Still think a graduated payreduction would be more pallatable. They on big salaries can stomach a larger percentage reduction than those on relatively little. But Ryanair is not run for the easy exchangable part of the workforce.

[topolino99]

The Max debacle could be Ryanair's saviour. Instead of now parking 20 new owned Max they have 2 billion extra in cash. Probably the same for some other airlines.
Still think a graduated payreduction would be more pallatable. They on big salaries can stomach a larger percentage reduction than those on relatively little. But Ryanair is not run for the easy exchangable part of the workforce.

I would be curious to see the 737max - RYR contract. If Boeing would be able to deliver aircrafts lets say in 2021, would Ryanair be able to cancel the order? If yes, at what cost?
Because everyone now thinks in the short term...but they were planning a huge growth, now this huge growth will not come true.. So yes they have a huge pile of cash 3.5bn now.. Maybe they would erode only 0.5bn this year with this coronavirus, but what about next?

If anyone is interested they can find the 2019 RYR annual report here https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Ryanair-2019-Annual-Report.pdf

[occasional]

No absolutely not
We are talking about dying.
We need to shut borders, lock down and test. Several weeks ago. No ifs no buts.

If we had done so early enough we would be coming out the other end. The longer the delay the worse it will be medically and economically. The UK government must wake up.

In any case there is no knowledge as to how long exposure protects you. It may be short term, it may be the virus mutates. The only protection is to develop one of the vaccines and to trial the drugs identified by AI. Both the other side of the potential second wave
Shutting borders is one of the silliest things to do and has probably caused thousands of extra infections already.
What is required is control at borders so that people only cross for good reason, wear face masks and, where appropriate, undergo quarantine.

Totally closing borders causes massive agglomerations of people in close contact as they all try to return home.

For the same reason Ryanair should be running down their schedule rather than terminating it.

[weebobby]

How long do we think planes will remain grounded ? I’m assuming to the end of May ?

[zfw]

Anyone one know why they keep having aircraft take off do a circuit then land, twice yesterday at MAN and also STN.?

[ericlday]

Similar circuit at Luton yesterday

[b1lanc]

Anyone one know why they keep having aircraft take off do a circuit then land, twice yesterday at MAN and also STN.?
7 minute mark of this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5HNUjVEPyQ

[zfw]

7 minute mark of this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5HNUjVEPyQ
Interesting
Thanks

[ford cortina]

According to a friend who works for them, its to keep the plane working and also keep the crew current. They are meant to be doing it every 4 days.

[Alsacienne]

Isn't it like keeping a stationary car ticking over?

[ford cortina]

Sort of Alsacienne, Aircraft don't like to be parked up, by giving them a run it keeps them working and of course it allows the crew to spot any problems that the engineers can then fix.