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Ryanair to cut flight schedules over 80% then ground airline

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Ryanair to cut flight schedules over 80% then ground airline

Old 18th Mar 2020, 15:57
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Ryanair to cut flight schedules over 80% then ground airline

A customer notice:


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Old 18th Mar 2020, 19:12
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This is getting ugly, very fast,
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 20:34
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Is it better for more people to get COVID-19 quicker and most to get over it, creating a situation where infection increases in a shorter amount of time a larger percentage of the population, and thus becoming resistant going forward, or delaying more people getting the virus faster by implementing these draconian governmental measures and causing financial ruin to many businesses and individuals in the process
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 20:39
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Is it better for more people to get COVID-19 quicker and most to get over it, creating a situation where infection increases in a shorter amount of time a larger percentage of the population, and thus becoming resistant going forward
No absolutely not
We are talking about dying.
We need to shut borders, lock down and test. Several weeks ago. No ifs no buts.

If we had done so early enough we would be coming out the other end. The longer the delay the worse it will be medically and economically. The UK government must wake up.

In any case there is no knowledge as to how long exposure protects you. It may be short term, it may be the virus mutates. The only protection is to develop one of the vaccines and to trial the drugs identified by AI. Both the other side of the potential second wave
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 20:44
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Originally Posted by Radgirl
No absolutely not
We are talking about dying.
We need to shut borders, lock down and test. Several weeks ago. No ifs no buts.

If we had done so early enough we would be coming out the other end. The longer the delay the worse it will be medically and economically. The UK government must wake up.

In any case there is no knowledge as to how long exposure protects you. It may be short term, it may be the virus mutates. The only protection is to develop one of the vaccines and to trial the drugs identified by AI. Both the other side of the potential second wave
we could have done that a couple of months ago. For that, now it's way too late and the virus can not be controlled. And if we can control the virus the likely hood of a second wave will be very large. At this moment a complete lockdown does not make much sense since it will not isolate the virus anymore.

Hang on everybody. It's going to be a very tough year.
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 21:08
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At the risk of straying outside the field of expertise of an Aviation Forum; we need to maintain a ratio of Infected to Carers/Food-Providers/Society-in-General. We have to assume that Governments Globally are devising their strategies in the light of model simulations to achieve this. We can't all be allowed to get it at once because we would overstretch the care system or starve, but most of us need to get it, come through the other side, and support the rest.

Yes, people will die. Its war. Stuff happens.
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 22:13
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If that's the case, we will experience a double whammy; deaths from Covid and deaths from vastly increased levels of worldwide poverty....
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 22:43
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Agree we are way too late but if you dont lockdown we may get an attack rate of 60% and a death rate of 3-4%. I will leave you to work it out. I dont think society will accept that

There is no 'control'. In the longer term we will vaccinate or treat with drugs. Meantime we have to reduce the transmission rate, currently up to 3.6, to below 1. When each patient infects less than one other person we win as the virus only survives by infecting new people. That is why early lockdown gives faster results because the pool of infected patients is lower and the virus dies out in less cycles.

I agree it is going to be more than tough. Luckily I have a medical as well as an aviation career but I am old enough to remember depressions when aviation was on its knees. It did bounce back. This is not a monetary issue. When people can re engage with each other and shop safely they will spend.

Keep safe
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 22:56
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Businesses do not bounce back from bankruptcy. Nature will prevail and sadly remove the weak, it does so with flu every year. This virus seems to be more effective in its transmission but herd immunity is likely before an effective vaccine.
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 22:56
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Will there be any paycheck for RYR pilots? Especially those who get paid by the hour?
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 23:00
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Originally Posted by golfyankeesierra
Will there be any paycheck for RYR pilots? Especially those who get paid by the hour?
I will be impressed if I’m wrong but sadly I can guess that the answer will be no

any news yet?

Seems some managements are much more open and communicative than others.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:07
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It would be foolish to believe that MOL would abandon his flight crew. No pilots no airplane flights, no revenue.

Not that I have any information or inside knowledge, but I expect that they will pay maintainability salary to all crew whilst the emergency continues. Knowing that FR have bags of cash, better placed financially I believe than any other Airline serving Europe, they will emerge and take up the vast majority of pax soon as the panic finishes. In fact the delayed max was a god send to them as their expansion plans were binned. They have Germany, Malta and Poland bases with low operating cost.

I would wager a reasonable amount on FR devouring the rest of us, I mean compared to them we look like dinosaurs. They aren't around now.

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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:26
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Ryanair have huge cash reserves but they will be consumed at a ferocious rate if the aircraft don’t fly. They are EI registered and I’m not sure Leo V has the funds to help.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:36
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Also unlike a lot of other airlines Ryanair outright owns over 90% of their fleet so no lease payments to worry about while they are parked up.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 17:54
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Originally Posted by qwertyuiop
Ryanair have huge cash reserves but they will be consumed at a ferocious rate if the aircraft don’t fly. They are EI registered and I’m not sure Leo V has the funds to help.

Bit puzzled here as can't think why their cash, which I believe is a big pile, would be eaten up. However you are right about Leo, nor much in the coffers there, but can't imagine MOL not looking at some sort of tax deal.

Don't like MOL but you have to admire his achievements. He's been lucky along the way, mind. But they say that about the Irish. Lol
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 12:17
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Irish credit rating is quite high and therefore they have access to debt if they so wished. They could provide interest bearing loans with covenants covering debt repayments and conversion to equity if not repaid on time. Could make the Irish government a tidy profit. Just like Air NZ just received.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 12:50
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Originally Posted by rotorwills
It would be foolish to believe that MOL would abandon his flight crew. No pilots no airplane flights, no revenue.

Not that I have any information or inside knowledge, but I expect that they will pay maintainability salary to all crew whilst the emergency continues. Knowing that FR have bags of cash, better placed financially I believe than any other Airline serving Europe, they will emerge and take up the vast majority of pax soon as the panic finishes. In fact the delayed max was a god send to them as their expansion plans were binned. They have Germany, Malta and Poland bases with low operating cost.

I would wager a reasonable amount on FR devouring the rest of us, I mean compared to them we look like dinosaurs. They aren't around now.
Just in case you are not being sarcastic, ryan air hires most aircrew and pays for flight hours. No flight , no pay.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 15:14
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Originally Posted by Jagwar
If that's the case, we will experience a double whammy; deaths from Covid and deaths from vastly increased levels of worldwide poverty....
But with all business shut down we will see a reduction in deaths from the lower pollution levels..

Interesting times..
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 02:11
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Originally Posted by Tom!
Also unlike a lot of other airlines Ryanair outright owns over 90% of their fleet so no lease payments to worry about while they are parked up.
From their 2019 annual report
***
At March 31, 2019, Ryanair had a fleet of 455 Boeing 737-800 aircraft, 144 of which were funded by Ex-Im Bank-guaranteed financing. Other sources of on-balance-sheet aircraft financing utilized by Ryanair are Japanese Operating Leases with Call Options (“JOLCOs”), which are treated as finance leases (12 of the aircraft in the fleet as of March 31, 2019) and commercial debt financing (3 of the aircraft in the fleet as of March 31, 2019). Of Ryanair’s total fleet of 455 Boeing 737- 800 aircraft at March 31, 2019 there were 26 aircraft which were financed through operating lease arrangements, 183 aircraft were financed from Ryanair’s own resources on an unsecured basis and the remaining 87 aircraft have no outstanding debt remaining. Ryanair has generally been able to generate sufficient funds from operations to meet its nonaircraft acquisition-related working capital requirement
***
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Old 22nd Mar 2020, 02:31
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The Max debacle could be Ryanair's saviour. Instead of now parking 20 new owned Max they have 2 billion extra in cash. Probably the same for some other airlines.
Still think a graduated payreduction would be more pallatable. They on big salaries can stomach a larger percentage reduction than those on relatively little. But Ryanair is not run for the easy exchangable part of the workforce.
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