VA pilots worried about employment 2021

[PPRuNeUser0198]

$200m positive from operations is easily wiped out by something like a virus.. but overall substantially negative cash flows in the last two non virus years.

So there are a couple of issues here. Firstly - what I was supposed to say was 'free cash flow', not 'positive cash flow'. My error. Second - looking at half-year results is 'half the picture'. It is a 'pulse check'. It's not an effective assessment. A lot can happen between halves that can drive performance up or down. You need to look at the full-year outcome. Thirdly - you need to consider both 'cash flow' and 'free cash flow'. They're different. Free cash flow is one of the most important measure of economic performance. It is a measure of the amount of cash flows that are truly unencumbered by the operation of the business. It is the purest measure of cash and forms the basis for valuation by removing the distorting effects of noncash charges, accounts for changes in working capital and acknowledges the capital expenditure for growth and have been avoided so far. It isolates the cash that is truly free to be distributed or used however VA sees fit.

For FY19 VA delivered 'positive free cash flow' of $53.9m. They raised the cash balance by $324m mostly through refinancing. And whilst it is also important to have 'positive cash flow' (not to be confused with free cash flow), you can see there is some large capital spending ($486.9m) in FY19 (and a lot of debt taken on under 'borrowings').

And we know in 1H20 they raised ~$1b via unsecured notes to fund a US$400m Bond that had expired (using debt to pay for debt) and to pay for Velocity ($700m). And they have dipped into cash reserves since that now reflects a reduction of $1.7b to $1.1b ($632m).

Don't get me wrong. Their debt levels are outrageous. Their leverage ratio is outrageous. They are dancing a debt tightrope and with cash flow reducing - they're ability to sustain will become challenged without spending all the reserves, selling off stuff, or raising more debt in the market (they can still do more of this - it just comes at a much higher price). And yes - their current liabilities are $1.5b greater than their assets. So if they were to collapse - there isn't going to be enough money to pay everyone (at this stage).

I see they have a $350m usd bond due October next year.

They'll likely refinance that or use a combination of cash and finance. All depends on the environment at that time.

And on B772's comments regarding their ratings - these are still opinions and need to be considered as that. Yes it does have an impact, but Qantas has been rated as 'junk' many times in the past.

Fingers crossed VA can continue to service debt for now. They may need to start a fire sale via Pickels Auctions... I see the airforce is selling some PC-9's there at the moment...

[Paragraph377]

Why the hell did they bring back Keith Neate? He is one of the Godfrey gang who was part of the Executive idiot group between around 2003 - 2011 when countless colossal mistakes were made. He took a parachute over to Aurizon and Scurrah has brought him back. What a joke. Who will they bring back next - the king of fuel hedging cockups, Manny Gill? The airline has $5.4 billion in debt and excess of $1 billion of cash on its balance sheet and they have minimal assets. Anyone who thinks the $1b in cash will be their saviour needs their head read. As has been pointed out already, during a severe financial crisis $1b won’t get you that far.

[Gate_15L]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1501x1221/3474a1da_dccd_4e51_a0e3_7ed5c5dca99d_0811f54cc4541b1b78b4bc2 08cf0384b469112f2.jpeg

[PoppaJo]

Well if they are paying that bond with Cash then the balance will be down to 400m. But that number will be even lower once the next three half’s pass. Essentially it could be 100-200m left.

It looks like the MAX deal is largely split 50/50 lease/own also.

More cash needed!

Just get SQ to buy off Etihad, Chinese and the public.

[B772]

Everybody should be aware the results released by VA on 26 Feb 20 were for the period ended 31 Dec 19. Likewise the S&P Global Ratings Outlook Update report issued on 28 Feb 20 was based on information released by VA on 26 Feb 20. S&P then factor in what they believe has taken place since 01 Jan 20 and what they see in the future.

Since the release of the S&P Update the outlook has become bleaker due to concerns about Covid-19 and the impact on travel generally. The share price has collapsed a further 17.14% and what happens between now and 30 Jun 20 will determine the future of VA. S&P modelling up to 26 Feb 20 showed VA defaulting in 2024 unless their trajectory changes for the better. Should it worsen default could occur earlier. The S&P modelling suggested there could be just $311M available to cover estimated 'claims' of $2B in round figures.

Should market passenger numbers start to reduce this week and the VA market share fall even lower due to concerns by agents and the travelling public there are concerns about the viability of VA the outlook could change for the worse very quickly.

[mr flappy]

Yes B772, the 31st of June will be a very interesting day indeed

[B772]

Thanks mr flappy. I have replaced 31 Jun with 30 Jun.

[-41]

The reality is that nothing VA flies actually makes money.


Karl Schuster is still getting paid after his 9million payout, so something they fly must be making money.

[DanV2]

Well if they are paying that bond with Cash then the balance will be down to 400m. But that number will be even lower once the next three half’s pass. Essentially it could be 100-200m left.

It looks like the MAX deal is largely split 50/50 lease/own also.

More cash needed!

Just get SQ to buy off Etihad, Chinese and the public.

The "so called Messiah SQ" has been reported to not been happy with VA for some time, despite being equally responsible (alongside EY, HNA and to some extent NZ) for getting VA into the financial mess they are today.

SQ have also booked losses from their VA investment in their own financial reports, and it's assumed that SQ are writing off their VA losses.

There's a better chance of VA's other partners: DL or NH taking over VA, and that's NOT likely to happen either.

[Arthur D]

There is no ‘White Knight’ scenario here. All major shareholders are suffering their own pain.

All VA employees need to think seriously about the future.

I’ve said it before, this looks a LOT like another Ansett.

[DanV2]

In addition, SQ doesn't have a respective track record of investing in other airlines.

There was SQ's involvement by investing in the NZ/AN debacle, even though they had the chance to walk away from AN when NZ used their veto to block SQ from buying News Ltd's stake in AN.

SQ also invested in VS, which turned out to a complete financial disaster, which led to SQ selling up at a loss to DL.

There was also SQ's involvement in Tiger Airways Australia, which they ended up "selling to VA" to save face after all the PR & maintenance debacles.

And then there's SQ's own 20% stake in VA. In the early years they were hands on (along with EY) during the early JB reign, spent a lot of Capital and tipped so much money (especially during the "capacity war") and it turned out to be a complete financial disaster.

[engine out]

I don’t think Etihad or HNA have any money to give, given their own financial troubles. I’m confident though that Virgin will survive.

[Dale Hardale]

The Virgin 777’s have small cargo doors as I recall. Unless that has changed, they would be virtually worthless in the currently depressed market.

[B772]

engine out: You are correct about EY. They are in a mess. Merger discussions with EK were called off when EK discovered financial skeletons in the EY closet relating to the collapse of Air Berlin. EY has been cancelling aircraft orders and reducing flying considerably. About 200 EY pilots have resigned or gone to fly with EK in the last 3 years. This figure does not include the pilots who were layed off.

The value of the EY investment in the bankrupt Alitalia may be known soon after 18 Mar 2020 if any offers are made to the Administrators for the purchase of Alitalia or any of its components. LH, AF and KL have indicated they have no interest.

The HNA group are a basket case with debt USD117B and currently losing USD14M per week. Assets are being sold at fire sale prices. One could presume HNA would accept any offer for their VA holding.

[Paragraph377]

The HNA group are a basket case with debt USD117B and currently losing USD14M per week. Assets are being sold at fire sale prices. One could presume HNA would accept any offer for their VA holding.
Spot on. Numerous airlines have seen this group as some sort of corporate airline saviour when the proverbial **** hits the fan. NOT SO. They have been trimming the crap for some time now, with not much of an effect. VHA is not a desirable asset in any way, shape or form. What most people don’t see is that the 2008 GFC was just a precursor for a bigger event. In 2008 banks, financial institutions and corporations went bust. The big one is when full blown Countries go bust. We’ve already seen Spain, Italy, Greece. Then you have Ecuador, Jamaica, Belize and Argentina who have defaulted twice in the past two decades. China is collapsing along with the UK and the USA. YOU CAN’T PRINT YOUR WAY OUT OF DEBT FOREVER. With China, India and Russia buying oil in their own currency and using gold as well, you have a recipe for disaster for the US dollar remaining as the oil currency for much longer. The world financial system is screaming a message loud and clear , a message that most people just don’t want to hear. Anybody who has not be buckling in for a rough ride since 2008 is going to endure a lot of pain when the entire Ponzi scheme finally comes crashing down. An airline like VA being managed by half baked morons are no match for the approaching storm. It’s not if, it’s when. And friends, VA are struggling already and the storm is still on distant finals!

[PPRuNeUser0198]

The value in VA the consortium only wants is the passenger traffic on to their metal underpinned by the loyalty programs and their 'reciprocal' benefits. 10m Velocity Australians weighted towards flying on EY et al for program benefits.

VA share price @ 0.77c. How low can it go...

[B772]

T-Vasis: You had a slip of the pen. The VA share price is currently $0.077. The market capitalisation is equivalent to the cost of 2 x B777-300ER aircraft.

If you are a resident of PER and Velocity member EY would be of no interest to you. EY has withdrawn from PER completely plus another 15 destinations with more to follow.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Yes - a slip of the keyboard.

But B772 - what value is Perth to anyone. That's not where the population and demand is. And I don't speak to just EY - I speak to all members where the program benefits apply - that includes the key shareholders of VA - hence their investment in the first place. They didn't invest becasue VA was a cash cow... They invested to capture the AUS market share to fill their own seats. Hence my use of 'et al' in the original statement. You're either a QF or VA member (or both in some instances).

[PoppaJo]

Might be a silver lining on the horizon. Oil Price absolutely dropping like a rock!

Crazy stuff! $20 oil not far off!

[Buttscratcher]

So what's with the rumour that the A330 crews have been asked to take Leave without pay?
Apparently 2 days this month to start with.
Gotta be keen on that.

[Progress Wanchai]

Might be a silver lining on the horizon. Oil Price absolutely dropping like a rock!

Crazy stuff! $20 oil not far off!

Bit of a non-sequitur.

The primary reason it’s falling is the Russians and Saudis can’t figure out how much they have to cut production by when airlines (and everyone else) stops burning the stuff.

VA has a future but it can’t forever keep paying its debt obligations by borrowing new debt like a dysfunctional family paying one credit card off with another. This has resulted in VA bonds being 8.5% at a time of record low interest rates. I’d imagine the next bond rate is higher still. (The joys of a country where the banks would rather lend to prop up the housing market than to assist businesses). The billion dollars sitting in the bank earning nothing is all borrowed, costing VA approximately 85,000,000 a year for the necessity of an airline having a cash reserve as required by a high cash flow volatile business.

Sooner of later VA will have to improve its debt to equity ratio. Until then it’s reliant on the bond markets and hoping the current panic won’t result in the credit market doing anything stupid.

[Paragraph377]

Just because the oil price is dropping it doesn’t mean VA will benefit. If they have hedged a large percentage of their fuel at a higher rate then there is no benefit when the price drops as they still have to pay the high rate. It’s the opposite effect when you hedge a large quantity at a low price and then prices rise exponentially. Knowing how the Village morons operate, I would bet that they have hedged high. They’ve done that before when the Godfrey gang were running the place and it almost sent them to the wall.

[Dewa_Gede_70]

So what's with the rumour that the A330 crews have been asked to take Leave without pay?
Apparently 2 days this month to start with.
Gotta be keen on that.


Rumour is fact

[Berealgetreal]

‘VA Pilots worried about employment’ but you still see APUs running needlessly with nobody on board, ground power connected on low temperature days. Can’t be that worried, must leave all the lights on at home as well.

Time for a reality check. Time to get over past, present and future injustices before its too late. Hands up who feels like doing another interview or going to the Middle East?

Lead by example, turn up on time, wear the uniform with pride, engage with the customer where you can and if you can save a dollar why not?

It’s not about being a company man or even saving the company it’s about being professional, doing what’s right and ultimately keeping your job. Let others hold the low standards.

Yep, I’m as pissed off as the next bloke about the rostering, farming out of work, poor decisions, waste and career destruction but I’ll be more pissed off when it closes and I’m trying to get a job, sell the house and pull the kids out of school to head overseas.

Here’s another hot tip: if you hate it that much go and do something else.

By the way, Covid-19 isn’t SARS, it’s not the flu it might go away, it might not. News.com and channel 7 news are not good sources for information FYI.

(I’m neither management nor a min fuel guy!)

[turbantime]

Totally agree mate. Annoys the crap out of me when there’s tangible savings the crew can make but they don’t because they either don’t care or are so angry at life they’re trying to prove some sort of point.

Not a company man myself but I don’t like resources wasted for no good reason either.

[The Bullwinkle]

‘VA Pilots worried about employment’ but you still see APUs running needlessly with nobody on board, ground power connected on low temperature days. Can’t be that worried, must leave all the lights on at home as well.

I’ve haven’t seen that happen at all in the last 15 years so I’ll call bull**** on that one!
For a start, we are required to turn off the APU if there’s nobody on board, (unless engineering has taken control in those instances when ground power isn’t available) so the situation you have described would/should result in disciplinary action, hence the reason that it does not occur, contrary to your post.

[flamingmoe]

‘VA Pilots worried about employment’ but you still see APUs running needlessly with nobody on board, ground power connected on low temperature days. Can’t be that worried, must leave all the lights on at home as well.

Time for a reality check. Time to get over past, present and future injustices before its too late. Hands up who feels like doing another interview or going to the Middle East?

Lead by example, turn up on time, wear the uniform with pride, engage with the customer where you can and if you can save a dollar why not?

It’s not about being a company man or even saving the company it’s about being professional, doing what’s right and ultimately keeping your job. Let others hold the low standards.

Yep, I’m as pissed off as the next bloke about the rostering, farming out of work, poor decisions, waste and career destruction but I’ll be more pissed off when it closes and I’m trying to get a job, sell the house and pull the kids out of school to head overseas.

Here’s another hot tip: if you hate it that much go and do something else.

By the way, Covid-19 isn’t SARS, it’s not the flu it might go away, it might not. News.com and channel 7 news are not good sources for information FYI.

(I’m neither management nor a min fuel guy!)


also calling bull**** on this, doesn’t happen...but you keep wearing your hat.

[Chadzat]

And therein lies the problem with VA (well probably most airlines actually) at the moment. Illustrated in those two posts directly above. You have a very sensible overall suggestion/idea that people should band together when literally the fate of the airline could be at stake in 2020, depending on COVID duration, and you get nitpickers and spiteful people who cant get over history.

Yes VA management have stuffed up majorly under JB but if people just arent flying - well some drastic and unpopular measures need to be taken TEMPORARILY by all. A number of suggestions on how to personally help are being discussed on the line already but there is a fear that the 10% of nutjobs who make the most noise come every EBA will try to quash the well-meaning of the masses.

[The Bullwinkle]

And therein lies the problem with VA (well probably most airlines actually) at the moment. Illustrated in those two posts directly above. You have a very sensible overall suggestion/idea that people should band together when literally the fate of the airline could be at stake in 2020, depending on COVID duration, and you get nitpickers and spiteful people who cant get over history.

Yes VA management have stuffed up majorly under JB but if people just arent flying - well some drastic and unpopular measures need to be taken TEMPORARILY by all. A number of suggestions on how to personally help are being discussed on the line already but there is a fear that the 10% of nutjobs who make the most noise come every EBA will try to quash the well-meaning of the masses.
Not nit-picking. Just calling out lies when I see them.
We aren’t all a bunch of angry men as the other post portrayed so I am going to defend the mostly great guys that work here!

[non_state_actor]

No point in getting to fired up over this stuff, we won't go broke because people didn't SE taxi enough. And the whole thing with the APU is BS most people want it off because it's about 50 decibels quieter in the flightdeck.

Anyone actually understand how we are going to meet our 2020 liabilities? Currently a Billion dollars in the red and I can't see anyone offering a bailout. Given the falling Bond returns I don't see that working either.

[Colonel_Klink]

No point in getting to fired up over this stuff, we won't go broke because people didn't SE taxi enough.

Most guys and girls out there act as professionals - but there is the 10% (probably the same 10% alluded to above) that will do things that deliberately cost money. I’ve seen it
firsthand.

This notion that we won’t go broke because people don’t do SE taxi is an interesting one. It does save money - simple as that. Same as leaving the APU off - it does save money. Obviously we are paid to factor in all the other relevant issues around whether it’s safe, practical, efficient to not do those things. People say that taking a pay freeze won’t do anything either.

But if you add up everything that’s going on, the head office lay offs, employee groups being asked for to take pay freezes, aircraft efficiency programs - it does all add up.

And that’s not to say that it can’t be all wasted by someone high up making stupid decisions (paying 3 times the market rate for A330s is up there), but it doesn’t mean that we should all be looking to perhaps do our bit, because I still want to have a job to rock up to in a few years time.

And that’s the crux of it all - there is a growing number of pilots who are legitimately starting to be concerned about their job prospects, because the financials of this place aren’t good at all.

[B772]

Scurrah Nominees and Scurrah Superannuation purchased a total of 942,600 ordinary VAH shares on 3/4/5/6 March. It appears the shares changed hands at close to an average of 10c each. Since the purchase the share price has dropped a further 25% meaning a financial haircut has been endured by Scurrah. 20,000,000 shares have changed hands over 3 days since the market closed last Thursday. The average daily turnover the past year have been 734,000 shares per day. This suggest the stock is being dumped.

[Paragraph377]

Scurrah Nominees and Scurrah Superannuation purchased a total of 942,600 ordinary VAH shares on 3/4/5/6 March. It appears the shares changed hands at close to an average of 10c each. Since the purchase the share price has dropped a further 25% meaning a financial haircut has been endured by Scurrah. 20,000,000 shares have changed hands over 3 days since the market closed last Thursday. The average daily turnover the past year have been 734,000 shares per day. This suggest the stock is being dumped.
I do hope he is doing the trading in his own time and not during work hours, such as when the stock exchange opens first thing in the morning? His time and energies should be spent managing the airline Monday to Friday and not doing personal business activities. That would be irresponsible. But then again, the Village is a somewhat special place for those who inhabit the bubble.


VAH shares down another 6.25% today and currently listed at $0.075.

[Berealgetreal]

Not nit-picking. Just calling out lies when I see them.
We aren’t all a bunch of angry men as the other post portrayed so I am going to defend the mostly great guys that work here!

I wasn’t specific enough Bullwinkle, apologies I meant “without passengers on board”.

I’ll wear the hat as long as it’s part of the uniform policy as I’m paid to do so. Do I like the hat? Not really, it’s a poor shape and has an emblem of nothing but it’s part of the job so I wear it. Funnily enough people ranted about the old uniform and I just wore that as well. I preferred the open neck but didn’t like the beige. Didn’t mind the jacket, at least it was different and not trying to be something we’re not. In my book VB old school is the go.

Just ideas and my opinion, don’t mind people if people disagree with it, maybe my roster is slightly better than theirs this month (unlikely). I get it.

All the best.

[Des Dimona]

Either Scurrah is privy to something and that's possibly insider trading, or he's backing himself and taking a huge punt.

i know where my money is.

[flamingmoe]

And therein lies the problem with VA (well probably most airlines actually) at the moment. Illustrated in those two posts directly above. You have a very sensible overall suggestion/idea that people should band together when literally the fate of the airline could be at stake in 2020, depending on COVID duration, and you get nitpickers and spiteful people who cant get over history.

Yes VA management have stuffed up majorly under JB but if people just arent flying - well some drastic and unpopular measures need to be taken TEMPORARILY by all. A number of suggestions on how to personally help are being discussed on the line already but there is a fear that the 10% of nutjobs who make the most noise come every EBA will try to quash the well-meaning of the masses.

sorry, but what was spiteful about it? Just saying that in my experience these days, 99% of pilots switch off the APU...when appropriate.

[Des Dimona]

So Scurrah has allegedly spent close to $95k on worthless stock - what's the reason ????

[PPRuNeUser0198]

VA will get through it. The money is in the domestic business. This is what matters most. Australians will travel locally for the time being. With capacity reductions and likely improved domestic demand - this will help the overall business performance (everyone is being urged to take leave. They have to travel somewhere). The share price will recover. He will make money from it. Everyone will.

[Paragraph377]

Either Scurrah is privy to something and that's possibly insider trading, or he's backing himself and taking a huge punt.

i know where my money is.
Agreed. Perhaps he really believes there will be a turnaround in the next 12 months that will see the shares rise a couple of cents because the price can’t go much lower? Or is there some big announcements coming that, announcements that although painful, will get the shareholders excited and have the market jumping for joy which in turn will give the Fuhrer some quick personal profit? Only time will tell.

[Paragraph377]

So Scurrah has allegedly spent close to $95k on worthless stock - what's the reason ????
With what he earns, $100k is chump change. It could be a simple tactic to make the market and shareholders feel warm and fuzzy and retain some confidence in him and the business when they see the CEO buying shares. It’s happenned before! Smoke and mirrors.

[MACH6]

No big deal really. He did this back in March 2019 as well when these two entities purchased just over 1.1 million shares. Interestingly though for an average of 17cents per share. Probably just ‘dollar cost averaging’ 😊.

[The Bullwinkle]

I wasn’t specific enough Bullwinkle, apologies I meant “without passengers on board”.
Thanks for clarifying!
Two points:-
Firstly, I don’t believe that type of behaviour is as prevalent as you are suggesting.
Secondly, if the off going crew weren’t in attendance when you arrived at the aircraft, then you are merely making assumptions that they didn’t have a valid reason for leaving the packs running.
It’s very easy to exaggerate the number of occurrences and make assumptions about others behaviour but if you don’t have all the facts, you’re just being as negative as the pilots that you’re targeting.

[lucille]

Two rules have held me in good stead over the years. Never get tax advice from a pilot. Never get financial advice from a pilot.

[Berealgetreal]

I wouldn’t try to twist my post it into something it isn’t. I’m not attacking people it’s just not what I’m about.

All I’m saying is that the real shareholders in this company are indeed the pilots. Right now I’m seeing and hearing of companies larger than ours failing or close to failure. If Virgin fails nearly everyone bar the pilots will simply find a similar paying job in the home town.

All I’m saying is that it might be worth considering forgetting about all the nonsense and noise (JB wiggy hello everyone) and trying to find a way to help save a few dollars which over 600 flights a day could actually make a difference.

I personally seeing nothing wrong with interacting with passengers and saving fuel where it has no adverse affect on safety. Idle decents, track shortening precooling the cabin to then turn the APU off once 2/3 of the passengers have left and turning it back on just before boarding would in my opinion make a difference due to the scale of the operation and the high interest borrowings involved. Besides it’s quieter during set up/walk around.

My post is about keeping us in a job that’s all. People are pretty afraid to come up with constructive ideas for fear of not being one of the boys, I fear seeing the place close more. Anyway I’m happy to be flamed if it convinces some to help keep the creditors away from OUR investment. BG JB PS come and go you and I will hopefully be here for years to come.

[DUXNUTZ]

I wouldn’t try to twist my post it into something it isn’t. I’m not attacking people it’s just not what I’m about.

All I’m saying is that the real shareholders in this company are indeed the pilots. Right now I’m seeing and hearing of companies larger than ours failing or close to failure. If Virgin fails nearly everyone bar the pilots will simply find a similar paying job in the home town.

All I’m saying is that it might be worth considering forgetting about all the nonsense and noise (JB wiggy hello everyone) and trying to find a way to help save a few dollars which over 600 flights a day could actually make a difference.

I personally seeing nothing wrong with interacting with passengers and saving fuel where it has no adverse affect on safety. Idle decents, track shortening precooling the cabin to then turn the APU off once 2/3 of the passengers have left and turning it back on just before boarding would in my opinion make a difference due to the scale of the operation and the high interest borrowings involved. Besides it’s quieter during set up/walk around.

My post is about keeping us in a job that’s all. People are pretty afraid to come up with constructive ideas for fear of not being one of the boys, I fear seeing the place close more. Anyway I’m happy to be flamed if it convinces some to help keep the creditors away from OUR investment. BG JB PS come and go you and I will hopefully be here for years to come.

Hopefully not one of these captains that makes you sit in the airplane between flights (extended sits) with no air. Good way to add to fatigue and result in making a mistake and getting hung out to dry by FOQA. Save money sure, but don’t make your experience tougher at work to save a couple bucks.

[DanV2]

Yes - a slip of the keyboard.

But B772 - what value is Perth to anyone. That's not where the population and demand is. And I don't speak to just EY - I speak to all members where the program benefits apply - that includes the key shareholders of VA - hence their investment in the first place. They didn't invest becasue VA was a cash cow... They invested to capture the AUS market share to fill their own seats. Hence my use of 'et al' in the original statement. You're either a QF or VA member (or both in some instances).

I do have to wonder, why couldn't most of those shareholders arrange a partnership with DJ/VA without the need to take an equity stake in the first place. SQ for example was able to maintain codeshares with VS after selling their stake to DL.

I understand most of those shareholders' financial circumstances back when they started getting involved with VA were different back then (as opposed to now where they're struggling financially to stay afloat themselves).

[John Citizen]

Hopefully not one of these captains that makes you sit in the airplane between flights (extended sits) with no air. Good way to add to fatigue and result in making a mistake and getting hung out to dry by FOQA. Save money sure, but don’t make your experience tougher at work to save a couple bucks.


There is still air without the bleed on.

I am sure you don't run the air conditioning/heating at home 24/7 if the temperature is nice and comfortable (about 20 degrees) so there is no need to do so at work.

[The Bullwinkle]

There is still air without the bleed on.

I am sure you don't run the air conditioning/heating at home 24/7 if the temperature is nice and comfortable (about 20 degrees) so there is no need to do so at work.
Unless there's 170 pax on board and it's "front only" due to staff shortages.
If you're in row 29 it gets pretty uncomfortable by the time you get off, regardless of the outside temperature.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

I do have to wonder, why couldn't most of those shareholders arrange a partnership with DJ/VA without the need to take an equity stake in the first place. SQ for example was able to maintain codeshares with VS after selling their stake to DL.

I understand most of those shareholders' financial circumstances back when they started getting involved with VA were different back then (as opposed to now where they're struggling financially to stay afloat themselves).

Different times for equity partners and VA. Buying into airlines was all the rage, until it wasn't. Getting a seat on the board gives you power. Australia is a valuable market. We pay top dollar. We travel a lot. For those equity partners - they saw the benefits of traffic as well as control of the business, and associated financial gains achieved. Problem is - most equity investments have not worked out. I see Air Italy collapsed, hammering QR's investment. FlyBe and VS;s investment etc.

[Berealgetreal]

Hopefully not one of these captains that makes you sit in the airplane between flights (extended sits) with no air. Good way to add to fatigue and result in making a mistake and getting hung out to dry by FOQA. Save money sure, but don’t make your experience tougher at work to save a couple bucks.

I just judge it based on the scenario, if there are paxing crew or a passenger staying back for a wheel chair then I’ll leave it.

If I see an opportunity to safely save some fuel I take it because ultimately thats increasing the chances of us keeping our jobs in the long term and it’s also quieter for the pit crew and other pilot doing the walk around. Besides, the pit crew go to the trouble of plugging ground power in when they probably have far better things to do.

Last thing I want to do is make passengers or paxing pilots more fatigued than they already are!

People that try to do a good job and also happen to be doing what management want aren’t the enemy. The enemy are the loan repayments.

A lot of employees see it as just a job and if it closes its not a massive problem so they won’t be looking to save or help and that’s pretty normal in the workplace. For us it’s a different story.

Just my bit. If you look at what the 737 clears and divide it out across how many flights a day we have it’s actually not that much so the small savings are proportionately a lot more than most realise.

[The Bullwinkle]

I just judge it based on the scenario, if there are paxing crew or a passenger staying back for a wheel chair then I’ll leave it.

If I see an opportunity to safely save some fuel I take it because ultimately thats increasing the chances of us keeping our jobs in the long term and it’s also quieter for the pit crew and other pilot doing the walk around. Besides, the pit crew go to the trouble of plugging ground power in when they probably have far better things to do.

Last thing I want to do is make passengers or paxing pilots more fatigued than they already are
Which is what just about everybody on the 737 does.
I just get fed up of hearing that there is an inordinate number of pilots doing the wrong thing.
There just isn't that many guys and girls doing the wrong thing as was eluded to earlier.
We are all professionals.

[ad-astra]

Enough already!

[Dewa_Gede_70]

Back on topic, it’s not a pissing competition

[Double_Clutch]

Wonder why these lads aren’t discussing this on the AFAP Forum?

I might place myself into Self Isolation and enjoy 2 weeks off!

[Paragraph377]

Shares down another 6.9% to $0.67. Its a game of limbo - how low will it go?

[Paragraph377]

$.67....... Not too bad a gain if you ask me!
Not when compared to the list price.

[John Citizen]

It is $0.067

[Paragraph377]

It is $0.067
Correct. My typo, left a zero out.

[bangbounceboeing]

You just can’t wait for virgin to go under can you Paragraph377

[Paragraph377]

You just can’t wait for virgin to go under can you Paragraph377
Actually, no, not at all. The last thing this country needs is a single domestic carrier. Too many good people at VA to have it fail. However the years and years of mismanagement and poor decision making is not only incomprehensible it is a disgrace that the Execs have been paid so much. I have not said a single bad word about the pilot group.

[das Uber Soldat]

Well, things just got a bit harder with the us blockade of Europe. The flow on effects of this will be significant.

[Dewa_Gede_70]

Shares down another 6.9% to $0.67. Its a game of limbo - how low will it go?


5 cents 😳😳😳😳

[das Uber Soldat]

0.05 cents
0.05 dollars.

[B772]

The VAHHA junk bonds are now down to $60 from $100 6 weeks ago. Fasten seat belts. The ride is about to get rough.

[Paragraph377]

The VAHHA junk bonds are now down to $60 from $100 6 weeks ago. Fasten seat belts. The ride is about to get rough.
Well the Orange Man’s announcement about banning Europe flights to the USA for 30 days has given the markets the jitters. Shares down to $0.055, around 23%.

[das Uber Soldat]

Thanks shags, I failed QF testing also 👍
I wasn't aware that was even possible. Cool.

[bigbrother]

VA board and JB. IT would be funny except now the deception, the incompetence, the arrogance, has come home to roost. Job cuts at a Tiger and Virgin, both front line and back room. Real people with real families. Where is the accountability of John Borgetti? Million dollar waste of time. How about holding these people accountable.

For the most part I see the same ill thought out dcissions continuing under the new management, which leads me to suspect that the same idiot advisors are still employed there.

Under those terms the company cant survive.

[Berealgetreal]

Apologies for the tread drift up there. Good to see more discussion about the irrelevant share price and past injustices.

Thanks for the chat Bullwinkle.

[Double_Clutch]

Is there any link between the company who has just signed a contract to provide some cleaning products for the cabin (Duropax) and Virgin?

[Falling Leaf]

There is no universal law that states that the people who manage to work/lie/deceive/kill their way to the top are competent and able to never put a foot wrong, though many people on these forums seem to think that is the case. JB became the CEO of VB and went about doing his own thing, supported by a board, and which he had the authority to do. He obviously f&*ked it up. That's life though. Think Stalin and Chairman Mao, how did they ever get to rule countries, never mind corporations.

If you are a salary slave (like me), there gets to a point where there's little to be gained by railing against the 'CEO class' with their revolving doors and golden parachutes. Most of those people worked 16 hour days for at least a decade to even get a slender foothold into that exclusive club. The rewards are great, but so is I imagine, the constant pressure and all consuming workload.

Sometimes a little perspective is needed. Fight for what you can get, but if it's beyond your control, then what's the point in constantly ranting. Could you do better?

[Superman1]

How has Elizabeth not been sacked? Or the entire board who has overseen the last 5-10 years.

Borghetti was an idiot driven by ego and revenge who made so many stupid decisions and thought he was a bit smarter than he was..... yet Elizabeth approved them all and continued to trumpet his talent and direction.

She needs to take accountability and should have left a long time ago. Although having met her she seems as self assured as him so that’s probably unlikely she would admit any fault.

i think all shareholders and employees need to get together and demand her immediate removal.

[B772]

What a weak effort by Scurrah in his latest release. It appears VA are in denial of their problems and the impact Covid-19 will have on the economy and the airline business. Then again it could be due to ignorance. Does he not read what QF are doing.

In short VA will reduce SYD-LAX by 2 frequencies per week for approx. 1 month. Reduce BNE-HND by 4 frequencies per week for approx. 1 month.

There are a few other changes but nothing to write home about.

Ps. Princess Cruises are mothballing their 18 cruise ships as soon as possible for 2 months at this stage. Disney Cruises suspended immediately, Disneyland, Disneyworld and Universal Studios closed until further notice.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

14 of the past 20 half yearly EBIT outcomes for Virgin Australia International have been negative. This is not sustainable. The international business is a significant contributor to the poor performance of the Virgin Australia Group (VAG) over the past decade, culminating in a 2019 loss at the PBT level for VAG of A$472m. The domestic business is holding VAG together with an EBIT of A$70m over 2019. Despite the string of poor financial outcomes, the international business represents almost 40% of VAG available seat kilometres and likely to tie up more than 40% of the aircraft assets of the business. The advocates for the international business will talk about the benefits it provides the domestic business in terms of network effects. Only Virgin will know what these look like but at the market level, around 10% of domestic PAX either take an international flight after or before a domestic flight. These positive effects are unlikely to dominant the negative. The bottom line is that it is extremely difficult to make money in the international business because it is far more competitive than domestic. While the domestic market is a duopoly, international markets can have up to 6 aggressive, high quality, lower unit cost players that are very difficult to compete against.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x602/0_6_ce793dc756bc0a528fe2a61a1b52456d50e63bbd.jpeg
Link (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/drtonywebber_14-of-the-past-20-half-yearly-ebit-outcomes-activity-6643977343088062464-mjEA)

[AerialPerspective]

You just can’t wait for virgin to go under can you Paragraph377

He's allowed to make comment on what, by any objective analysis, is a case study in corporate incompetence and greed of the highest order.

Even if you put aside the endless garbage about 'cash flow positive' (if you're a business and you don't make a profit, you're NOT sustainable in the long term, especially when you can't even make a profit after having BILLIONS tipped in by corporate owners)... the share price was between 40-50c when the previous CEO took over and we've now had a year or two of the new CEO and where is it now ... trading at 5.7c when I looked just a minute ago... but been hovering around the 10-15c mark for months.

This company had/has potential, but it has been utterly destroyed by monumental incompetence, by leaders in many cases, who are stunning examples of intellectual incapacity... WHO buys another airline to expand the business and then closes half its routes and places aircraft against the fence only to pay through the nose for a competitor to do the flying for them... WTF was the point then of purchasing Skywest? If that wasn't enough you've got the cockup with the 737/A320, letting the A320 drivers go on the basis they'd get approval on the AOC for the 737 but they couldn't even do that until something like the THIRD attempt... not to mention the DPS debacle, this is supposed to be a PROFESSIONAL airline group and they can't even manage to put DPS on a sustainable basis for one of their subsidiaries without completely cocking that up as well. OzJet was a tiny airline with a dozen head office staff and even they could successfully get DPS on their AOC and start operating without any problems (there's were mainly financial).

There are numerous other calamitous stuff-ups along the way too, choosing the wrong computer platforms which are completely useless at the coalface even in normal operations and less capable that a 45 year old platform used by Air NZ.

There are some wonderful people working at VA and TT and it's just a damn shame that these colossal morons have nearly destroyed this company in the space of a decade and left it potentially teetering on the brink while not taking one single pay cut or giving up a single bonus from my memory, the previous CEO even being paid more than Alan Joyce at one stage for the incredible achievement of turning in one loss after another. People who work there talk of anyone with expertise being shown the door as well, that's some pretty strong arrogance to be the purveyors of a total corporate cockup and still have the gall to throw aside people who know what they're doing and might help you dig yourself out of the hole.

If anything, Paragraph is too damn nice in his comments.

There's a reason why the previous bloke was derisively referred to in the competitor as 'mini-me'.

[AerialPerspective]

14 of the past 20 half yearly EBIT outcomes for Virgin Australia International have been negative. This is not sustainable. The international business is a significant contributor to the poor performance of the Virgin Australia Group (VAG) over the past decade, culminating in a 2019 loss at the PBT level for VAG of A$472m. The domestic business is holding VAG together with an EBIT of A$70m over 2019. Despite the string of poor financial outcomes, the international business represents almost 40% of VAG available seat kilometres and likely to tie up more than 40% of the aircraft assets of the business. The advocates for the international business will talk about the benefits it provides the domestic business in terms of network effects. Only Virgin will know what these look like but at the market level, around 10% of domestic PAX either take an international flight after or before a domestic flight. These positive effects are unlikely to dominant the negative. The bottom line is that it is extremely difficult to make money in the international business because it is far more competitive than domestic. While the domestic market is a duopoly, international markets can have up to 6 aggressive, high quality, lower unit cost players that are very difficult to compete against.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x602/0_6_ce793dc756bc0a528fe2a61a1b52456d50e63bbd.jpeg
Link (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/drtonywebber_14-of-the-past-20-half-yearly-ebit-outcomes-activity-6643977343088062464-mjEA)

It should be carved off and sold to the highest bidder... sell it to Qantas for $1 or Air NZ or Delta... they'll at least know how to run it at a profit... VA is not an international business, it can't even manage to orchestrate sustained operations to DPS by one of it's subsidiaries. Time to stop pretending to be an international airline.

[Chadzat]

Just to add to the useless share price antics of a few posters above -

QAN - 15%

VAH + 6.4%

QAN must be about to go out of business....:rolleyes:

[AerialPerspective]

Just to add to the useless share price antics of a few posters above -

QAN - 15%

VAH + 6.4%

QAN must be about to go out of business....:rolleyes:

Qantas cash in the bank - between $3-4 billion (which it owns).

Virgin - $1 billion, all borrowed from it's corporate owners.

You can't quote a share price difference based on the last few days and use it as an argument. Qantas shares are far more robust than VAH. One is still worth between $3-4 and the other is worth 5c on current trading, it was over 70c ten years ago and more than $2 at one stage. The coronavirus will pass and Qantas will recover, VAH probably will not as it has very few, if any, levers that it can pull.

[Chadzat]

Qantas cash in the bank - between $3-4 billion (which it owns).

Virgin - $1 billion, all borrowed from it's corporate owners.

You can't quote a share price difference based on the last few days and use it as an argument. Qantas shares are far more robust than VAH. One is still worth between $3-4 and the other is worth 5c on current trading, it was over 70c ten years ago and more than $2 at one stage. The coronavirus will pass and Qantas will recover, VAH probably will not as it has very few, if any, levers that it can pull.

i guess my sarcasm was lost on you AP. That was my point exactly.

the misinformation on this thread is astounding and it is pretty disappointing to read comments from posters who would like to see VA fail. Your cash facts are misleading also. Cash in bank is cash in bank. It doesnt matter where it originated from. VA has about $1 billion, QF has about $1.7 billion. Yes QF also has assets they can sell but that is different to cash in bank...

[Arctaurus]

That's all very well chadzat, but what some of the debt instruments that are maturing over the next 12 months ????

They have to be funded for VAH to survive, and the cash reserves (and I don't believe it's $1 billion) will take a huge haircut.

Ansett before it fell over had considerably more "cash" and we all know the outcome there.

Everyone better hope COVID-19 is resolved sooner rather than later, otherwise things will get really tricky for a lot of companies and global economies in general.

[lucille]

The really sad part is the needless panic due to Covid19. Economies wrecked, lives ruined, jobs lost etc etc all because of the headless chickens on social media and the political class pandering to it.

Its the flu for God’s sake, albeit with a slightly higher mortality rate among those over 80.

China has long been the epicentre of respiratory illnesses, I cannot recall even once when I didn’t get sick after flying as a passenger on a domestic Chinese airline.

The problem for us in the Southern Hemisphere is that the worst is yet to come as the winter approaches.

My fingers are firmly crossed that Virgin will survive and there will be no job losses. A government bailout may be a good idea.

[Paragraph377]

Well said AP. And yes, I have actually tried to be nice in my commentary. Some people on here don’t want to know the true state of play and would rather click their heels and dream nice thoughts about everything being ok and that there is nothing to be concerned about. VA and QF cannot be compared. Two different models with different financial status. Simple. As for the argument that ‘one should not discuss past travesties’, well I’m sorry but that is naieve and sticking your head in the sand. Previous management are relative to this discussion. It’s called ‘follow the bouncing ball’. It is a buildup of the past 10 or so years of mismanagement that has placed VA in a perilous situation. You can’t blame it all on a virus that has been around for 10 weeks on VA’s current position. And that is a relevant point because some existing Managers and Board have been around through all of these issues and are still here providing direction. Their competency has gotten better? Their ability to manage change in a way that builds the airlines viability has gotten better? I don’t think so. Elizabeth pushed for the Train Driver to come onboard as CEO of a commercial airline. Way different to managing a lazy Government owned cash cow. I dont believe this to be a good fit, not a good decision in a time of need. The Board should have taken a walk along with the the CEO.

As for the ‘little bloke’ who took his millions and jumped from the sinking ship; 35 years in the one company will give you nothing more than a one sided view of the world. He only knew one business model. He only knew the framework of one company. Once he started at VA and the leash was removed he was given a playground filled with lots and lots of different toys and the permission to buy new ones!!! Bad mistake.

Now the man with the mono-brow has been tasked to do something that is above his pay scale. The management of the airline from the day that it started to grow into a real competitive business have been an abject failure. Successive useless CEO’s, useless CFO’s and useless Board members. Godfrey was punching above his weight from 2013, the Italian was punching above his weight for the duration of his long tenure, now Scurrah is punching above his weight with no solid aviation background. With COVID potentially playing havoc with the world for months to come, maybe longer, and then flow-down affects to run for years, this company needs a really talented team on the flight deck to pull it out of its nosedive. I’m not confident that it does.

[Ollie Onion]

‘Just the flu’ is totally underplaying the threat. It is not the disease itself that is the problem but the shear number of people that will become infected if the virus goes uncontrolled. Hospitals will quickly become overwhelmed. Australia with a population of circa 25 million means 15 million infections of which 150,000 - 300,000 will die with 3,000,000 requiring hospital care of which 1,000,000 will require ICU care. Now, I don’t think the Aussie hospital system has nowhere near enough resources to deal with those numbers so it is likely that anyone over 60-65 years old will be denied ICU treatment and told to do their best at home. This is the kind of event that could lead to society breaking down, minor crimes going un-investigated, all elective surgeries delayed and people curfewed at home. Of course the other option is to introduce social distancing measures, close borders when required and limit movement in an attempt to slow the spread to allow the health system to treat smaller numbers over a longer period. The thing the world is lacking is a co-ordinated strong plan, instead we have wishey washey policies being implemented in a haphazard way. I said it when this appeared in January and I will say it again, we have at least another 6 mo this of total disruption ahead and any business in a fragile state now won’t survive. On the up side at least when the recovery starts in the global economy is will be strong and quick.

[Led Zeppelin]

The VAH share price is nothing more than a reflection of market risk pricing.

It should be no surprise with the company performance and COVID19.

The statement today to the ASX identifies further reductions in services, additional cost savings and confirms suspension of earnings guidance FY20 due to COVID 19.

The first debt maturity is late in 2021. They will need to have the cash for that.

[Oakape]

Looks like things will get worse before they get better.

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/could-domestic-focus-be-virgin-australia-s-saving-grace-.html

[PPRuNeUser0198]

PS with no solid aviation background

Not quite right. He has many years both in airlines and the travel industry at various levels. He does not need to be a specialist. That's why he has a leadership team. He needs to make good business decisions based on the information provided to him. Having a background in aviation means nothing anyway. A) you learn as you go, B) it is about business acumen and strong leadership in a CEO role. There are enough smart people to advise him as requirerd.

The first debt maturity is late in 2021. They will need to have the cash for that.

Not quite. They can refinance their debt, as they have done previously. Whilst obtaining further debt is challenging - it isn't impossible. I hear that Finch rated VA today as B+ and stable.

Entertaining read on PS @ https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/lunch-with-virgin-australia-chief-executive-paul-scurrah-20200117-p53sa6.html

[havick]

Not quite right. He has many years both in airlines and the travel industry at various levels. He does not need to be a specialist. That's why he has a leadership team. He needs to make good business decisions based on the information provided to him. Having a background in aviation means nothing anyway. A) you learn as you go, B) it is about business acumen and strong leadership in a CEO role. There are enough smart people to advise him as requirerd.



Not quite. They can refinance their debt, as they have done previously. Whilst obtaining further debt is challenging - it isn't impossible. I hear that Finch rated VA today as B+ and stable.

Entertaining read on PS @ https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/lunch-with-virgin-australia-chief-executive-paul-scurrah-20200117-p53sa6.html

Will anyone take the finch rating seriously anymore?

[porch monkey]

Finch, probably not.

[Chris2303]

sell it to Qantas for $1 or Air NZ or Delta...

Why sell it?

It has few assets - just let it go.

That is a purely theoretical view and doesn't take account of the pain caused to the staff. Oh wait - that doesn't happen anyway these days, does it?

[Gate_15L]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1536x687/62e7bc2a_3230_4da2_be20_b6d56a3d7b87_ecde27015ded0957c7ba77c fbcd841c3d6083f51.jpeg
Your all so full of $h!t....

[AerialPerspective]

i guess my sarcasm was lost on you AP. That was my point exactly.

the misinformation on this thread is astounding and it is pretty disappointing to read comments from posters who would like to see VA fail. Your cash facts are misleading also. Cash in bank is cash in bank. It doesnt matter where it originated from. VA has about $1 billion, QF has about $1.7 billion. Yes QF also has assets they can sell but that is different to cash in bank...

I'll meet you half way and yes, I did miss the sarcasm... my bad.

Whatever Qantas' cash, it's evident that they are far more capable of weathering a storm like this than VA and no, I don't want to see VA fail either, but I am astounded at the continual string of bad decisions that have happened at VA and while I hope it doesn't fail, if it does, it will be the staff that pay the price, not the people who've stuffed up repeatedly and collected millions for their trouble.

[AerialPerspective]

Why sell it?

It has few assets - just let it go.

That is a purely theoretical view and doesn't take account of the pain caused to the staff. Oh wait - that doesn't happen anyway these days, does it?

The point of suggesting it be sold is so that there is at least some chance the people will keep their jobs by being absorbed into another operation.

[Chris2303]

The point of suggesting it be sold is so that there is at least some chance the people will keep their jobs by being absorbed into another operation.

I can't see QF buying it, they've nothing to gain apart from a monopoly

Similarly NZ. They were not impressed with their previous association with VA and they were badly hurt in the AN debacle so there will be no way they will buy into an Australian domestic carrier.

DL?????

[lucille]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1536x687/62e7bc2a_3230_4da2_be20_b6d56a3d7b87_ecde27015ded0957c7ba77c fbcd841c3d6083f51.jpeg
Your all so full of $h!t....


Gate15L... chill.... this is a pilot rumour network. A profession not known for an especially high minimum intellect entry requirement. The ability to engage the autopilot and retract the undercarriage pretty much gets you lifetime membership. Hence you read the vitriol and nonsense on these threads.

Sorry for my despair, but the great toilet paper panic has pretty much broken any faith I had in Australia.

[DanV2]

I can't see QF buying it, they've nothing to gain apart from a monopoly

Similarly NZ. They were not impressed with their previous association with VA and they were badly hurt in the AN debacle so there will be no way they will buy into an Australian domestic carrier.

DL?????

NZ had a huge role to play in the AN collapse, aside from Peter Abeles, Murdoch, Unions, etc.

NZ at the time had their "own version of Borghetti" in the form of (then Chairman) Selwyn Cushing, a bloke with so much ego he used his veto rights to block SQ from buying News Corp stake of AN, despite fully knowing that his company (NZ) did not have the balance sheet to fix a ailing AN. Cushing was just one of the blokes that put the final nail in AN's coffin, with Toomey as his "sidekick".

Also to add, "the so called Messiah SQ" isn't the 'messiah' that many like to think either, considering SQ also has a mediocre record at investments in Australia and overseas (The NZ/AN bankruptcy debacle, Virgin Atlantic losses, the failed Tiger Airways Australia attempt and now the overspending of CapEx at Virgin Australia with very minimal to no return).

DL may be an opportunity, but I can't see them investing in VA. If DL does though, I can see them reducing international to LAX and AKL only, with SkyTeam partners taking over the rest of what's left of VA's international network. The nickname "Delta Australia" does compliment their "Delta UK" (Virgin Atlantic) division though.

[Double_Clutch]

Are any NZ crew being rostered LWOP (vol or invol?) with the reduction of flying announced?

[Low Pass]

Are any NZ crew being rostered LWOP (vol or invol?) with the reduction of flying announced?

Company totally making it up as they go and in reactionary decision making mode. Probably like most airlines.
side note: Rarotonga totally made money during PB days. Current loading I heard are very consistent and the boys always on weight limits.

“Our main priority is to protect our operation and our crew members. We will do all we can to preserve as many jobs as possible by utilising surplus mitigation strategies such as LWOP, annual leave and long service leave. Where these options are exhausted we will have to consider other alternatives including Stand Down Days and this will be discussed with union representatives.“

[Colonel_Klink]

From the AFAP update last night - all VA737 Australian pilots will have one stand down day rostered as of next roster.

I fear this is just the beginning....

[coaldemon]

This is what the smarter airlines are doing. Keeps the Pilots on the books but reduces cash burn. As for whether RAR was profitable no PB pilot or VA Pilot would know. The issue now for VA is cash burn and USD exposure. Out of the Billion there would be a fair chunk that was already locked up for L/Cs and required deposits and MR's. It is the part that is left and is working capital that needs to be preserved and with the AUD at around 62 cents all the costs went up depending on hedging that may be in place. Going to be a hard few months for Airlines and then another year or so to come out of the economic malaise that will set in. There will be a few more go down

[Double_Clutch]

So let me get this right. Not sure how this works

VA are standing down their own pilots yet they are continuing to feed QQ flying at the expense of their own staff?

[AerialPerspective]

I can't see QF buying it, they've nothing to gain apart from a monopoly

Similarly NZ. They were not impressed with their previous association with VA and they were badly hurt in the AN debacle so there will be no way they will buy into an Australian domestic carrier.

DL?????

My comment was in response to a comment about VA International, I wasn't suggesting anything about VA Domestic. However, I think DL is the only logical alternative if you want to talk about domestic. SQ are absolutely hopeless at managing anything beyond their own airline and DL has scale and would probably benefit from the investment.

[Paragraph377]

So let me get this right. Not sure how this works

VA are standing down their own pilots yet they are continuing to feed QQ flying at the expense of their own staff?
Correct. It is the cheapest option. It’s about $$$, and Scurrah would rather stand down VA pilots and continue to feed work to QQ. It’s a business decision based on dollars, not on loyalty. It shouldn’t surprise anyone really, everyone is a number - nothing more and nothing less.

[burned_out]

From the AFAP update last night - all VA737 Australian pilots will have one stand down day rostered as of next roster.

I fear this is just the beginning....

Yeah, would have been nice for those Tigerair Pilots and FA's to get that same choice, instead it was a bullet to the head for about 90+ Pilots and 350+ FA's.
If you think that was a smart decision by Scurra .. then I bet there is a thin line of protection for any of the VA "mainline" peeps, if it gets that far.

[snakeslugger]

Just gets better...NZ govt requires anyone entering NZ to self isolate for 14 days, except pacific islands.

[Berealgetreal]

From the AFAP update last night - all VA737 Australian pilots will have one stand down day rostered as of next roster.

I fear this is just the beginning....

Haven’t read it yet. Just VAA Pilots or the entire group?

[KRUSTY 34]

I can't see QF buying it, they've nothing to gain apart from a monopoly

Similarly NZ. They were not impressed with their previous association with VA and they were badly hurt in the AN debacle so there will be no way they will buy into an Australian domestic carrier.

DL?????

Slight thread drift, but make no mistake Chris, the AN debacle as you call it was because ANZ bit off more than they could chew. And don’t get me started on what they did in the weeks leading up to the collapse!

[B772]

burned out: Are you saying 90+ pilots and 350+ F/A's have been terminated by Tiger ?

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Be very clear - Scurrah is only focussed on profitability. Part of why he was selected. He is a cost man. Was at QR and DP. He has made this clear when he came into the business. Which, is the absolute right thing to do for the survival of this airline. There cannot be loyalty, nor should anyone think that there should be. Those days are long gone. You are a payroll number - that is all. Everything else is all just fluff to make you feel good and keep engagement high etc...

[DanV2]

Be very clear - Scurrah is only focussed on profitability. Part of why he was selected. He is a cost man. Was at QR and DP. He has made this clear when he came into the business. Which, is the absolute right thing to do for the survival of this airline. There cannot be loyalty, nor should anyone think that there should be. Those days are long gone. You are a payroll number - that is all. Everything else is all just fluff to make you feel good and keep engagement high etc...

Scurrah was also at QRNational/Aurizon (the former QR National Freight Division that was split off QR when the ALP State Government (at the time) split the freight subsidiary (now known as Aurizon) from QR and sold it as a separate company).

[Colonel_Klink]

Yeah, would have been nice for those Tigerair Pilots and FA's to get that same choice, instead it was a bullet to the head for about 90+ Pilots and 350+ FA's.
If you think that was a smart decision by Scurra .. then I bet there is a thin line of protection for any of the VA "mainline" peeps, if it gets that far.

With all due respect - that doesn’t make any sense. VA have had capacity reductions in the order of 6-10 % to date. Hence 1 day of LWOP per pilot per roster for VAA 73 Domestic.

Tiger have had 6 out of 14 aircraft permanently removed. The equivalent number of Virgin aircraft would be 30 to be permanently removed. The scenarios are completely different.

[Led Zeppelin]

Re the NZ announcement - I would have thought operating aircrew are exempted, but that aside, it is correct to think this will decimate trans tasman traffic. Standby for more cancellations by VA, QF, JQ


What a cluster f@ck this all is.

[Wombats320]

Following the announcement RE NZ isolation. VA flying to be reduced substantially effective Sunday 22nd. Wonder what this means for the guys and gals based over in NZ?

[Buster Hyman]

Crews exempt from conditions in NZ...unless....

[Count von Altibar]

How's VA doing in the current crisis? I guess the loads to the USA are good right now as the Trump ban didn't include the UK, I know the BA ones are good.

[Paragraph377]

From Flight Global;

“Virgin is also suspending earnings guidance for the current financial year “due to ongoing uncertainty of the Covid-19 situation. The carrier states that it is seeking relief on government charges, and at the corporate level, will remove management bonuses for the current financial year (FY), while board members will temporarily reduce fees by 15%”.

Amazing, ‘seeking relief on Government charges’! Once again, decades of mismanagement come home to roost. Management have been happy to bleed the airline and mismanage it to a point where there is not enough value in the war chest to sustain a potential hit to its very survival, yet it asks for a measure of financial assistance which at the end of the day will come from taxpayer pockets. Give me a break, how about Scurrah, his Directors and all Executive Management be placed on part-time checkin or ramp staff salaries for the next two years so as to assist the airline in trimming costs?

[Double_Clutch]

Here we go again, happy Paragraph737 welcoming in the week with another positive post.
Cheer up big boy and come over and give me a cuddle
Have a cheery week ahead Paragraph737 😘


On a serious note - are you ok?

[bangbounceboeing]

Yeah I wish Paragraph377 would just f**k off and crawl under a rock. He’s relishing this, I doubt the majority or his ex ANZ compatriots would wish an airline to fold like he seems to.

[Paragraph377]

Here we go again, happy Paragraph737 welcoming in the week with another positive post.
Cheer up big boy and come over and give me a cuddle
Have a cheery week ahead Paragraph737 😘
On a serious note - are you ok?

So you would prefer for me to pretend everything is ok, the world is fine, no virus pandemic, no job insecurity, no financial crisis and no mismanagement at VA? Ok, I will try.

[Paragraph377]

Yeah I wish Paragraph377 would just f**k off and crawl under a rock. He’s relishing this, I doubt the majority or his ex ANZ compatriots would wish an airline to fold like he seems to.
You’re an idiot. I’ve never said I’m relishing in this nor do I want VA to fold. But I won’t hold back from pointing out the mismanagement that has lead the airline to this point in time. Perhaps you should bury your hand back in the sand if you are not prepared to face the real world.

[bangbounceboeing]

Just sick of hearing your constant stream of ****, everyday, in fact multiple times a day. You said you worked for ANZ, why do you give a flying f**k what’s happening to the virgin boys and girls.

[Paragraph377]

Just sick of hearing your constant stream of ****, everyday, in fact multiple times a day. You said you worked for ANZ, why do you give a flying f**k what’s happening to the virgin boys and girls.
There could be a range of reasons why I am interested. As to those reasons angry man it’s none of your business. If you get anymore emotional I think you might start lactating mate.

[wheels_down]

So let me get this right. Not sure how this works

VA are standing down their own pilots yet they are continuing to feed QQ flying at the expense of their own staff?
They have already paid for the Alliance work. I would hazard a guess and say should they decide to cancel work and do it themselves then tender contract issues might arise.

The 737 is too big for a large chunk of the alliance work. That’s why they have most of it.

I get the point, but it’s going to be an expensive exercise doing what you want.

[WipperSnapper]

Rather than people spitting the same rhetoric over and over and over again, any chance of offering their opinions of what the airline should be doing right now to weather the storm, save jobs and save the company?

[Gate_15L]

So you would prefer for me to pretend everything is ok, the world is fine, no virus pandemic, no job insecurity, no financial crisis and no mismanagement at VA? Ok, I will try.
no but , you relishing the position VA finds itself in shows you for the a$$hat you really are.

good day...

[vee1-rotate]

no but , you relishing the position VA finds itself in shows you for the a$$hat you really are.

good day...

Agreed. You're as bad as the media reporting on every single roll of toilet paper getting sold at Coles or the current status of Penrith Woolworth's hand sanitizer stock. Everyone is aware Virgin are struggling, pointing out that the stock dropped another 0.01c every day doesn't achieve anything besides show your true side.

Get a life and log off the computer for a while.

[Paragraph377]

Agreed. You're as bad as the media reporting on every single roll of toilet paper getting sold at Coles or the current status of Penrith Woolworth's hand sanitizer stock. Everyone is aware Virgin are struggling, pointing out that the stock dropped another 0.01c every day doesn't achieve anything besides show your true side.
Get a life and log off the computer for a while.
Dear 172 Pilot, I am much more concerned about the lack or product availability at Woolworths Ascot. Couldn’t think of a worse place to go than to Penrith shops. Anyway, as an ex DC-10/b747 Captain I am concerned about my line pilot Grandson’s future at VA.

[-41]

They have already paid for the Alliance work. I would hazard a guess and say should they decide to cancel work and do it themselves then tender contract issues might arise.

The 737 is too big for a large chunk of the alliance work. That’s why they have most of it.

I get the point, but it’s going to be an expensive exercise doing what you want.


The QQ contract is sheer corporate mismanagement (folly). To sign a commercial contract without equivalent “stand down provisions”, well they wouldn’t do that with a EA.

No point in claiming a FK100/70 can do what a 737 can’t because that’s easily disproved, using the Southwest formula, own your airframes outright.

Highly doubt VAH paid for the QQ flying in advance for the term of the contract.

[airdualbleedfault]

No point in claiming a FK100/70 can do what a 737 can’t because that’s easily disproved, using the Southwest formula, own your airframes outright.
Yeah and anyway, where would VA get an F100 size aircraft from :}

[mates rates]

They already have 2 737-700’s which could more than do the job of Alliance F100’s.Surely they would have “get out “clauses in any contract.I have not seen anything from the unions on this matter.What are they doing about it?

[Dookie on Drums]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/267x200/img_0885_1ac767bf72dc09c8426cd44596141ffc24a61d78.gif
Watching with interest

[B772]

wheels down; Are you confident VA has paid QQ for contracted flying in advance. This could be regarded as an Onerous Contract by the Australian Accounting Standard Board.

I have often wondered how VA could contract flying to QQ when it has so many a/c parked that they are still paying lease and upkeep costs.

[Double_Clutch]

From the outside, it confuses me that the own metal is parked when non-company aircraft is flying under the call.

I understand that not all ports may be services by VA metal, however those that can accommodate the aircraft, should be crewed albeit on a reduced schedule.

Very concerning and disturbing behaviour. Why not look after your own first?

[Paragraph377]

Very concerning and disturbing behaviour. Why not look after your own first?
Quite obviously you were not born with too many brain cells. Don’t tell me there are still people at VA who believe in fairies, the easter Bunny and ‘staff loyalty’? Umm, CEO’s and Boards look after themselves first, shareholders second and as for staff..... well you are just a number, and an expendable one at that. It’s cheaper to contract the work out to QQ - SIMPLE. It’s about money and profits - SIMPLE. You are so funny Double_Clutch when you say ‘look after your own first’! Oh my Lordy, aren’t you in for a rude awakening!!

[pinkpanther1]

Quite obviously you were not born with too many brain cells. Don’t tell me there are still people at VA who believe in fairies, the easter Bunny and ‘staff loyalty’? Umm, CEO’s and Boards look after themselves first, shareholders second and as for staff..... well you are just a number, and an expendable one at that. It’s cheaper to contract the work out to QQ - SIMPLE. It’s about money and profits - SIMPLE. You are so funny Double_Clutch when you say ‘look after your own first’! Oh my Lordy, aren’t you in for a rude awakening!!


Do us all a favour and self isolate for 14 days you Muppet.

[The Bullwinkle]

Don’t tell me there are still people at VA who believe in fairies, the easter Bunny and ‘staff loyalty’?
Next thing you’ll be telling us there’s no such thing as Santa Claus!

[lucille]

With all the pseudo border closures it’s sadly looking like VA may be in difficulty and yet the keyboard ghouls and zombies here are bitching about the most trivial of nonsense.

Id like to see the government help keep VA afloat and running without job losses. The last thing this country needs is a monopoly airline. Lobby your MPs to push for the survival of VA. At the end of the day, it is still a pretty good airline and worthy of survival.

ps... I have zero connection with VA other than being a passenger on occasions.

[Dookie on Drums]

With all the pseudo border closures it’s sadly looking like VA may be in difficulty and yet the keyboard ghouls and zombies here are bitching about the most trivial of nonsense.

Id like to see the government help keep VA afloat and running without job losses. The last thing this country needs is a monopoly airline. Lobby your MPs to push for the survival of VA. At the end of the day, it is still a pretty good airline and worthy of survival.

ps... I have zero connection with VA other than being a passenger on occasions.
I appreciate your comments but honestly why should the government keep them afloat? Genuine question. Job losses are everywhere so what makes them special?

[Ragnor]

With all the pseudo border closures it’s sadly looking like VA may be in difficulty and yet the keyboard ghouls and zombies here are bitching about the most trivial of nonsense.

Id like to see the government help keep VA afloat and running without job losses. The last thing this country needs is a monopoly airline. Lobby your MPs to push for the survival of VA. At the end of the day, it is still a pretty good airline and worthy of survival.

ps... I have zero connection with VA other than being a passenger on occasions.


Sure, the government can prop up VA then they can prop up Cobham, Alliance, REX, Network, QLink, JQ and don’t forget the national carrier QF. What also will need propping up AFL, NRL basketball. Point is every major business will suffer with this virus.

[bankrunner]

Government won't allow an airline monopoly to exist.
VA is going to be in serious trouble with travel effectively halting due to Coronavirus. I expect there will be a bailout.
Might even be a good time to buy shares if you're brave.
​​​​

[Chris2303]

Government won't allow an airline monopoly to exist.​​​​

There is no valid reason for not allowing a monopoly

[Ragnor]

Government won't allow an airline monopoly to exist.
VA is going to be in serious trouble with travel effectively halting due to Coronavirus. I expect there will be a bailout.
Might even be a good time to buy shares if you're brave.
​​​​

At this stage, this is the last thing on the governments mind. Their focus most likely on preserving the health system by limiting the exposure rate to Covid-19 that’s why the self isolation is being enforced, also to prevent emergency wards and medical staff from being overrun with cases. I wouldn’t want anything to happen to any airline but to think the government will bail VA out is naive. If they do it for one, have to do it for all.

[ElZilcho]

NZ Government is setting up a massive fund to support Businesses & Employees (Not just Airlines) due to the travel restrictions. Surely Aussie can do the same.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12316806

[Buster Hyman]

The same mob that let AN collapse are in power so, I wouldn't get your hopes up.

[Gazza mate]

VA failing would be bad for Qf as this would leave a void to be filled by an unknown. I reckon VA failing is the last thing Qf want so I doubt Qf will be giving VA a tough time this year. It’s in their interest to even help out VA by reducing competition. Better the known opponent than the unknown opponent.

[Chris2303]

The same mob that let AN collapse are in power so, I wouldn't get your hopes up.

The same party - different people.

[AerialPerspective]

The same party - different people.
Last time they claimed that they couldn't help AN because "... the Commonwealth isn't in the business of bailing out private companies" (JH)... EXCEPT, when it's a company that has the PM's brother on the Board.
Before anyone says it was a tiny company... irrelevant, it either gets involved or it doesn't, to ONLY do so on an occasion where a family member of the PM is involved is disingenuous in the extreme.

[Biatch]

sorry, but what was spiteful about it? Just saying that in my experience these days, 99% of pilots switch off the APU...when appropriate.

My experience is not this.

“They get air con in the village”

“pax paid for it”

“no”

These are the common reasons for not trying to save money.

My experience when the conditions are within parameters, the number of times an APU off arrival is done, maybe 5%.

SE taxi, seen it 5 times in the last year, and about the same previous years.

It would be interesting to see the actual data from the company. No doubt my experience could be skewed for an number of reasons.

[ad-astra]

FFS. Enough already!

[The Baron]

After reading this thread, I would like you all to stop and take a deep breath. When I worked there, I was always impressed by the camaraderie and professionalism of the pilot group.
There's been a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth over the last few weeks, and for what benefit? Clearly none. Time to do what we were good at. Looking after each other. Take the time to check on your mates. Make the first move and go and talk to each other. There probably going to be plenty of opportunities away from work for to have a few beers or a barbie. Get together and look after each other. Don't forget about your partners and kids, they suffer when you do. There is going to be a lot of fat in the rosters. Make the most of the opportunity. Think about being ready if and when this turns around.

[Superman1]

PS saying “as they are majority domestic means they will be shielded from the worst of it and in an ok position is interesting”..... He either doesn’t have a good understanding of how this virus has progressed in countries globally or is trying to do a JB and talk complete BS out of his A** about how amazing an airline they are ...

Major corporates including NAB ANZ and many others have cancelled all domestic travel for employees so the domestic network will collapse very soon.... I think this will be a real turning point for VA. They need to cut domestic flights by at least 50% now! Having a flight every 4 hours to between the major capital cities will be more than adequate soon.

[slice]

“Major corporates” , mostly QF though. Saying WA, Gold Coast actually up on this time last year. Cut Cut when you have to, but cancelled OS holidays will still want to go somewhere. Remember Darwin’s theory. Wether VA has that quality remains to be seen.🤨

[Buster Hyman]

The same party - different people.
Do you think they're more compassionate than the Howard Govt? :confused:

[wheels_down]

There isn’t a major drop of in traffic on Dom yet. Still fairly busy.

Lets not not get too carried away spreading VA fear. Your making it sound like flights are bare empty around the traps.

Next couple of days still pretty busy.

[Vindiesel]

I wouldn't call it VA fear but have a look at the VAH half year report from last month and tell me why you shouldn't be concerned.

- Cash and cash equivalents dropped from $1.7b to $1.1b in 6 months to 31 December. What level do you reckon cash is at now? Maybe $1b at best? Maybe $900m?
- VAH operating expenditure is about on par with operating revenue for the 6 months to 31 December - both at around $3.1b for the period.(source: page 7 of half year report).
- If you assume a 30% reduction in revenue to about $2.1b for the next 6 months, which is by no means out of the questions with these travel restrictions, corporate travel bans and a reduction in discretionary leisure travel, then VAH essentially runs out of cash in 5-6 months.

Not saying I'm definitely right, but this doesn't seem far fetched in my opinion.

[arena1]

it’s like sharks to blood, how about you all settle the f$&ck down, every industry is in the same boat not just the self centred ‘what about me’ airline industry. Airlines come and go, invoking panic is how this sh$t and every other world disaster is fueled.

[wheels_down]

I wouldn't call it VA fear but have a look at the VAH half year report from last month and tell me why you shouldn't be concerned.

- Cash and cash equivalents dropped from $1.7b to $1.1b in 6 months to 31 December. What level do you reckon cash is at now? Maybe $1b at best? Maybe $900m?
- VAH operating expenditure is about on par with operating revenue for the 6 months to 31 December - both at around $3.1b for the period.(source: page 7 of half year report).
- If you assume a 30% reduction in revenue to about $2.1b for the next 6 months, which is by no means out of the questions with these travel restrictions, corporate travel bans and a reduction in discretionary leisure travel, then VAH essentially runs out of cash in 5-6 months.

Not saying I'm definitely right, but this doesn't seem far fetched in my opinion.

The 500m drop of the balance sheet was paying off a bond. They were very upfront to the market about that for the last year. The next bond is still 1.5 years off. That can either be refinanced, or, with the Boeing order extremely likely to be pushed back, capex freed.

So they have a billion bucks to play with for the foreseeable future. They are not going to blow a billion in the next half!

Just be mindful there is quite a bit of redundancy and transformation expenses in the last half. Also new contracts with airports and fuel suppliers.

They have already stated a 75m impact for the second half. I think that number could be doubled as a minimum. I think a conservative figure for H2 would be -250m considering we are nearly in the last quarter.

They will also gain a 70-100m Velocity Earnings for this half, and 100m in Employee Costs and Contracts gain from July.

Advice from modelling shows mid to late September rebound.

[VH-ABC]

If it’s ok with you wheels down, I’ll quote you in a few months, with the benefit of hindsight of course. I do hope you’re right by the way.

[Denied Justice]

Advice from modelling shows mid to late September rebound

And just who gave that advice - and I don't care which company they came from???? - Who can seriously predict what will happen with this scenario of COVID-19.

And you would be dreaming if you think that Qantas and Jetstar are not having discussions about stand downs in the near future. Virgin and Tiger are in the same boat with the big difference being the capacity to trade in such a depressed market..

Very uncertain times.....

[Berealgetreal]

This is making the GFC look like a fun day out.

[Foxxster]

And just who gave that advice - and I don't care which company they came from???? - Who can seriously predict what will happen with this scenario of COVID-19.

And you would be dreaming if you think that Qantas and Jetstar are not having discussions about stand downs in the near future. Virgin and Tiger are in the same boat with the big difference being the capacity to trade in such a depressed market..

Very uncertain times.....

have a look at the Qantas grounding A380 thread. Qantas just announcing 80% reduction.

Virgin expected to announce today as well.

and when they close schools, shops etc and then lock people in.. basically a complete grounding.

and this will be for at least several months, probably 6.

This will be the picture worldwide for the airline industry.

.

[B772]

VAHHA have dropped a further 26.69% today to $35.00. If you think VA will prosper between now and 26/11/24 buy VAHHA at $35. You may receive 24% per annum plus receive $100 on 26/11/24. Personally; I think they may drop off the radar unless Richard Branson pumps some of his fortune into VAH. He is cashed up after the sale of Virgin America.


.

[AerialPerspective]

have a look at the Qantas grounding A380 thread. Qantas just announcing 80% reduction.

Virgin expected to announce today as well.

and when they close schools, shops etc and then lock people in.. basically a complete grounding.

and this will be for at least several months, probably 6.

This will be the picture worldwide for the airline industry.

.
On what possible basis do you claim this will be for six months??? If, at the maximum, the isolation period were 30 days instead of 14, that means the virus will have run it's course if the borders are closed and there will be no new cases if it's run it's course, will there???
6 months!!! You're exaggerating beyond all reasonable possibilities. Besides, in 2 months they will be pretty close to a vaccine, as great strides have been made already, talk about over-the-top.

[TimmyTee]

AP is on another planet..

[dr dre]

6 months!!! You're exaggerating beyond all reasonable possibilities. Besides, in 2 months they will be pretty close to a vaccine, as great strides have been made already, talk about over-the-top.

The vaccine has to be subjected to human trials to make sure it works and it is safe. And then it has to be manufactured. And then the public has to be vaccinated en masse for the entire world. That will not happen in 2 months, and I doubt it will happen by the end of the year.

The 6 months is concurrent with the end of our traditional flu season which is what health planners are using as their baseline.

[oicur12.again]

Not sure what is being advised down under but here in the US the CDC advise a vaccine will be 8-12 months away and deployable in 12-18 months.

This is not going away soon.

The impact to the airline industry will be huge.

Get the resumes ready? No point. Better off learning how to grow vegetables.

[Paragraph377]

S&P have downgraded Virgin's credit rating from a B to B-. S&P Global Ratings agency expects the downturn in international travel as a result of Covid-19 will "likely spread more deeply into Australia's domestic market", Virgin's predominate market. S&P says Virgin's efforts to reduce capacity, exit loss-making routes and accelerate cost reduction initiatives are unlikely to fully cover the cost of lower travel demand.

Virgin's large cash reserves and investments, worth about $900m, will provide a temporary buffer to the crisis, but S&P acknowledges the company's future stability may rely on it cutting more costs if this crisis continues beyond the next few months. The company's operating environment may be deteriorating at a faster pace than Virgin Australia can implement initiatives to protect cash generation and balance sheet health, S&P said of Virgin.

S&P said it was less likely Virgin would receive extraordinary support from its shareholder airlines, Etihad Airways. Singapore Airlines, Nanshan Group, HNA Group and Virgin Group if it experienced financial stress, with each shareholder experiencing its own challenging conditions.

[VH-ABC]

Like a dog with a bone...

[ad-astra]

Yep.Someone loves the sound of his own keyboard strokes!
One thing for sure I am pretty sure the 'Grandson' is ten times more sick of listening to the sage advice from the "ex DC10/B747 Captain" than we are!

[bangbounceboeing]

Yeah very big “ IF “ Think ANZ retired the DC-10 in around 1982 so must have been a very young DC-10 Captain or ................

[Gate_15L]

Yep.Someone loves the sound of his own keyboard strokes!
One thing for sure I am pretty sure the 'Grandson' is ten times more sick of listening to the sage advice from the "ex DC10/B747 Captain" than we are!

I don't think it's the keyboard he's stroking....

[rcoight]

Not sure what is being advised down under but here in the US the CDC advise a vaccine will be 8-12 months away and deployable in 12-18 months.

This is not going away soon.

The impact to the airline industry will be huge.

Get the resumes ready? No point. Better off learning how to grow vegetables.

Other already existing drugs are currently being tested for possible value in treating this virus.

If one (or more) of them proves to be effective that will shorten the time-frame significantly as they are already known to be safe.

[TBM-Legend]

Other already existing drugs are currently being tested for possible value in treating this virus.

If one (or more) of them proves to be effective that will shorten the time-frame significantly as they are already known to be safe.


The ability to introduce these drugs into the general population is still months away. Trials need to be held and analysed etc etc. Not done in a week.

PS; VA Intl, NZ ops and VARA kaput... so we're back to the beginning of an all 737 low cost carriers which it never should have left. Thanks JB..

[rcoight]

The ability to introduce these drugs into the general population is still months away. Trials need to be held and analysed etc etc. Not done in a week.

I didn't say they'd be ready in a week. I said if pre-existing safe drugs prove to be effective that will significantly shorten the time-frame.
It could be, say, 6 months instead of 12-18.

[Hoosten]

Some of the more intelligent amongst you should grow the f@%& Up.

Yes, a lot of our jobs are on the line, mine included. I'm waiting for the call any day, but FFS have a think about the fear you are spreading. Are you talking like this in front of your children? What pleasure does it give you to see people paralysed by fear?

Feed courage, don't feed fear.

Have a think about who the most vulnerable are here, it ain't you.

LETTER FROM TORONTO: An Infectious Diseases Specialist Reflects on COVID-19

I’m a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I’ve been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria…there is little I haven’t been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they ” probably don’t have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know…” and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games…that could be kiboshed too. Can you even imagine?

I’m scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I’m scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, open-mindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and “fight for yourself above all else” attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let’s meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.

Our children will thank us for it.

Dr. Abdhu Sharkawy

[Obie]

$750M just announced to be given to Q and V.

[timewise]

Looking at the VA booking website which has just been updated it looks like B777s being taken offline late March till 14th April and Bne-Hnd still scheduled to commence 3 times a week so that should be a heads up about the impending announcement ( maybe)

[coaldemon]

All the best with the announcements for those affected. It will be some pretty tough medicine from what I am hearing from the Pilots I know.

[Green.Dot]

Some of the more intelligent amongst you should grow the f@%& Up.

Yes, a lot of our jobs are on the line, mine included. I'm waiting for the call any day, but FFS have a think about the fear you are spreading. Are you talking like this in front of your children? What pleasure does it give you to see people paralysed by fear?

Feed courage, don't feed fear.

Have a think about who the most vulnerable are here, it ain't you.

You have brought up a good point. I don’t think it is healthy to check PPRUNE or the news constantly. It’s not good news, the info is out of date 24 hours later and things won’t change for a while. By all means keep doing it if you want to, but I know the days I have avoided it and the news I have felt better for it. Anyway, time for me to stop checking it!! Stay safe all, and good luck

[Colonel_Klink]

$750M just announced to be given to Q and V.

That’s not my understanding - I believe the Government has waived Air Services fees and the jet fuel excise, and the value of this is $750m. However, if aircraft aren’t flying, they won’t be charged any nav fees and won’t be using any jet fuel. EDIT:It does look like the government is refunding fees already paid by the airlines - this is a good start.

However, the airlines are going to need cash injections, and fairly large ones. The sooner the government realises this and supports this, the more secure some of us may feel about our jobs.

[LostWanderer]

Looking at the VA booking website which has just been updated it looks like B777s being taken offline late March till 14th April and Bne-Hnd still scheduled to commence 3 times a week so that should be a heads up about the impending announcement ( maybe)

I can't see any VA777 flying anywhere from late March onwards, in any month. It appears it's only DL flights from that point onwards.
Edit: My bad, looks like it is scheduled again from June onwards now.

Has anything official been announced? I haven't read anything about it yet.

[WillieTheWimp]

Expect ASX announcement this morning. Should include the capacity cuts.

Hope everyone has some savings because it will be a quiet few months for the crew.

[lc_461]

ABC news reporting VA suspending all international flights MAR30-JUN14

[Foxxster]

Expect ASX announcement this morning. Should include the capacity cuts.

Hope everyone has some savings because it will be a quiet few months for the crew.

it’s out.

Key points:
• Suspension of all international flying from 30 March to 14 June 2020
• Group domestic capacity reduction of 50 per cent until 14 June 2020
• Temporary grounding of the equivalent of 53 aircraft from the Group’s fleet
• Dedicated customer care hub for impacted guests at virginaustralia.com
18 March 2020: The Virgin Australia Group has today announced a temporary suspension of international services and further cuts to domestic capacity in response to expanded government travel restrictions and increased impacts from COVID-19 on travel demand.
As a leading airline group, Virgin Australia will work closely with Government to prioritise bringing Australians home and returning visitors back to their point of origin safely, while maintaining its important role in supporting connectivity and the nation’s economy.

CEO Commentary
Virgin Australia CEO and Managing Director Paul Scurrah said, “We have entered an unprecedented time in the global aviation industry, which has required us to take significant action to responsibly manage our business while balancing traveller demands and supporting the wellbeing of Australians.
“We have responded by making tough decisions which include reducing our domestic capacity and phasing in the temporary suspension of international flying for a period of two and a half months.

International changes
The Group will suspend all international flying for a period of two and a half months in response to the new travel restrictions announced by Government. This includes the grounding of five Boeing 777, one Airbus A330 and fourteen Boeing 737 aircraft from the Group’s international fleet.
The changes include:
• Temporary suspension of all international services from 30 March to 14 June 2020 inclusive.
• Melbourne to Los Angeles services suspended from 20 March.
• Inaugural Brisbane to Haneda service, postponed from 29 March.
• Inaugural Melbourne to Denpasar service, postponed from 29 March.
Virgin Australia will operate a reduced international schedule


Domestic changes
In response to weakened demand, the Group will reduce domestic capacity by around 50 per cent until 14 June 2020. This includes the grounding of twenty Boeing 737, six A320, two ATR and five Airbus A330 aircraft from the Group’s domestic fleet.
The route and schedule detail of these changes across Virgin Australia and Tigerair Australia is currently being worked through and will be published over the next week.

Impact on our people
The temporary grounding of the international fleet and reduction in domestic capacity will impact the company’s workforce and the Group is working constructively with our team members and their unions.
The Group is undertaking a range of measures to address the current situation including the use of accrued annual leave, leave without pay, redeployment and, in some circumstances, redundancies.
These are in addition to measures we’ve already announced, including the temporary reduction in Chairman and Board of Director fees by 15 per cent, removal of management bonuses, no base salary increases for non-EA team members and additional leave measures.

[-41]

With those numbers 14 x 73 VAI + 20 X 73 VA = 34 x 737 grounded

the QQ Flying will surely be suspended

[Colonel_Klink]

With those numbers 14 x 73 VAI + 20 X 73 VA = 34 x 737 grounded

the QQ Flying will surely be suspended

The QQ flying is a bit of a furphy - what do you actually want to happen with those routes? Having a look today, QQ fly the following from BNE:
- ISA
- GLA
- ROK (as well as VA737)
- POM (initially done by VAI with 30% load factors)
- EML
- BDB
- ASP

Do you really think any of those routes would support a 737 flying to them? Qlink fly Dash 8s to most of those regional QLD ports (or 717s).

So if Alliance stops the flying, those routes get cancelled. Simple. Is that what you want? Because that is what will happen - VA aren’t going to be putting a 737 on BNE-EML, I can assure you of that. Do you want to lose all the on carriage from those ports? Do you want to give all that market share to the competitor- who will then price gouge the s#@! out of those places? This doesn’t take into account the fact VA has a contract with QQ - and I would imagine it has penalty clauses in it for cancelling early (unless there is a ‘force majeure’ clause give current circumstances).

[one dollar short]

With those numbers 14 x 73 VAI + 20 X 73 VA = 34 x 737 grounded

the QQ Flying will surely be suspended

so i know there is two types of flying they do. One is of “their own” and take the financial responsibility and use the va support network ie booking system terminal etc and the other is a straight up wet lease.

What’s what I have no idea and I don’t think anyone actually knows when the wet lease finishes, apparently they can’t get out of the wet lease contracts which I think most people agree isn’t right - surely they can’t be running empty planes around during this stuff and getting paid ? It’s going to leave a mighty bitter taste in the mouths of va pilots who can’t pay mortgages watching qq flights departing from their terminal ...

[-41]

Perhaps theres no tone in my question.

There is no debate to be had on past mis-management, nor the capability of a Aerodrome to support a particular airframe, ect. Yes you are correct on all.

I could point out they just grounded 2 ATR’s which are very capable in the hands of any 3rd world airline.

However at a time when everything from accomodation to catering is being wound back and redundancies are being communicated from PS, I’d be more encouraged if they’ll wind up this particular excess.

“on carriage” is a moot point now, so canceled routes are not going to matter.

The QQ flying is a bit of a furphy - what do you actually want to happen with those routes? Having a look today, QQ fly the following from BNE:
- ISA
- GLA
- ROK (as well as VA737)
- POM (initially done by VAI with 30% load factors)
- EML
- BDB
- ASP

Do you really think any of those routes would support a 737 flying to them? Qlink fly Dash 8s to most of those regional QLD ports (or 717s).

So if Alliance stops the flying, those routes get cancelled. Simple. Is that what you want? Because that is what will happen - VA aren’t going to be putting a 737 on BNE-EML, I can assure you of that. Do you want to lose all the on carriage from those ports? Do you want to give all that market share to the competitor- who will then price gouge the s#@! out of those places? This doesn’t take into account the fact VA has a contract with QQ - and I would imagine it has penalty clauses in it for cancelling early (unless there is a ‘force majeure’ clause give current circumstances).

[TimmyTee]

He’s a vulture.

[Ollie Onion]

You are a strange person Paragraph377, seemingly you have nothing better to do than spend your days trolling and taking pleasure in the fact that Airlines might go belly up. Your comments are unhelpful and potentially quite upsetting to people who are worried for their jobs and the financial health of their families. I just don't get why you seem to be determined to hurt people. Maybe you have never had the misfortune of losing a job or being in an airline in financial difficulty, I have and the last thing you need is someone constantly speculating that your airline is about to go bust in such a gloating fashion. Why don't you just go get your photo albums and logbooks out and sit there and reminisce what a legend in your own lifetime you used to be and how you used to enjoy telling everyone who good you were.

Ollie

[34R]

Don’t bring yourselves down to his level.

Direct your energies towards staying positive and providing support to your colleagues, no matter what tail they fly during these extraordinary times.

[tail wheel]

There isn’t a major drop of in traffic on Dom yet. Still fairly busy.

If that statement is correct why have Qantas cut domestic capacity by 60%?

"Qantas and Jetstar will cut international capacity by about 90 per cent, and domestic capacity by around 60 per cent, until at least the end of May."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/qantas-coronavirus-cuts-capacity-by-90-per-cent/12062328

[Ollie Onion]

They haven’t actually made the cuts to domestic yet....... expecting the actual cuts over the next couple of days based on booking profiles

[Arthur D]

My guess he is looking for schadenfreude.

[snakeslugger]

Pretty sure I know who he is and would you believe, was once a good guy? Retirement is not treating him well obviously and has become a total pest!

[thefeatheredone]

[QUOTE=snakeslugger;10718282]Pretty sure I know who he is and would you believe, was once a good guy? Retirement is not treating him well obviously and has become a total pest![/QUOTE

no... wouldn’t believe it for a second.

[Paragraph377]

Wow. What disappoints me is that all I have posted is financial status updates sanctioned by approved sources and I’ve mentioned how successive Executive level management decisions have led to this point. Ok, it’s not happy news but it is more or less fact. In turn the vitriol and venom directed at me is quite disturbing. Save it for Godfrey, Borghetti et al. On top of that, successive disgraceful comments between 737/777/330 and TT 320 pilots is beyond belief. You guys/girls don’t like me, fine, but take a look in your own backyard.
Best of luck to all the pilots.

[wondrousbitofrough]

Bit of friendly advice, stop playing the victim when all you've done is tried to stir the pot. Your comments, your input are all unnecessary and unwanted. I agree some of the comments directed at you have been out of order, but please, just stop. Thanks.


Wow. What disappoints me is that all I have posted is financial status updates sanctioned by approved sources and I’ve mentioned how successive Executive level management decisions have led to this point. Ok, it’s not happy news but it is more or less fact. In turn the vitriol and venom directed at me is quite disturbing. Save it for Godfrey, Borghetti et al. On top of that, successive disgraceful comments between 737/777/330 and TT 320 pilots is beyond belief. You guys/girls don’t like me, fine, but take a look in your own backyard.
Best of luck to all the pilots.

[Colonel_Klink]

Unfortunately all the announcements to date will not have taken into account what the Tasmanian government have just announced - everyone travelling there essentially has to go into two weeks quarantine. I fear as though it’s not long now until every state does the same thing and then there won’t be a need for any domestic airline travel.

[Led Zeppelin]

The announcement yesterday of a 50% cut to domestic services and an effective grounding of 53 aircraft probably goes close to match what Qantas has done today. The Tasmanian announcement will adversely affect these numbers, but not by huge amounts in an overall context. Hopefully, Scurrah's plan will keep VA afloat into the future, albeit in a reduced size operation.

[Foxxster]

The announcement yesterday of a 50% cut to domestic services and an effective grounding of 53 aircraft probably goes close to match what Qantas has done today. The Tasmanian announcement will adversely affect these numbers, but not by huge amounts in an overall context. Hopefully, Scurrah's plan will keep VA afloat into the future, albeit in a reduced size operation.

unfortunately this is out of his control.

what happens next is solely dependent on case numbers.

and it is case numbers that drive government policy responses and then business responses.

we can see what the next steps will be if they keep increasing at the same multiple they have been historically.

next is closure of all shops, cafes, restaurants.

then compulsory quarantine of everyone in high case number areas. Sydney, Melbourne etc but probably not country areas.

these are likely to occur in around two weeks and four weeks . Again we have other countries experience to see this is inevitable. Singapore, China, Italy, Spain etc. and just today, it appears London will be locked down from this weekend. It IS going to happen here - If our case numbers do not respond to the measures taken on Sunday re crowds over 500, further extensive restrictions on inbound international passengers etc. (there will be a lag of about a week to allow for those infected to develop symptoms then get test results).

So if by the middle of next week the 20% daily growth rate hasn’t really started to drop for several consecutive days we will get the next stages.

the UK has around 2,600 cases but 68m population. For us to be as bad per capita, we would need around 950 cases. We have 636, doubling every 5 days. Perhaps my estimate of two weeks and four weeks are overly optimistic as they are reported to be considering locking down London already.

both these measures but obviously the second will further cut domestic operations, in fact ground them altogether. Just as the international routes are grounded now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Denied Justice]

If what Foxxster says comes true, then that is a world of pain for QF and even more so for VA.

[galdian]

Will be interesting to see if history is kind or harsh regards how this was all handled - peeling the bandaid off rather than ripping it off?

We have extended the time greatly in an effort to minimise some deaths, the economic consequences will be felt for a far greater time and the (eventual) economic recovery will take far longer to achieve because of these actions.

In spite of all actions to date some people are still catching the disease, many probably carriers and some people are dying.
All for which is generally accepted to be a flu type virus with flu like symptoms that most people get over - as they do the flu.

Maybe mute as the direction of the world response has been established - thanks globalisation! :ok:
For conspiracy theorists the effect on the world probably exceeds 9/11.

[Double_Clutch]

I see QF senior management are leading by example - 100% pay hit until June 30

Will VA management show the same leadership and help the company/staff?

[Berealgetreal]

Posted in another thread.

Meanwhile in todays AustralianQantas chief executive Alan Joyce has warned Scott Morrison not to nationalise airline competitor Virgin Australia, saying he cannot pick winners and losers.

“That would be completely unfair. We would be competing against the federal government,” Mr Joyce told Sky News on Friday morning.

Whats with this bloke? Can’t help himself.

Theres something wrong in your head if you
secretly hope 10,000 people out of a job. This bloke says it in the media.

[Ragnor]

Posted in another thread.



Whats with this bloke? Can’t help himself.

Theres something wrong in your head if you
secretly hope 10,000 people out of a job. This bloke says it in the media.

If VA get the special treatment so should we. Current position that VA is in is due to its own mismanagement. I don’t want to see anyone loose their job, needs to be a level playing field.

[cloudsurfng]

I dont think that’s what alan meant Berealgetreal. Neither should be nationalised. The whole industry needs support I think was what he was getting at.

fingers crossed for everyone

[Ragnor]

I Misunderstood, cheers

[Berealgetreal]

First port of call for the tax payer former Group CEO and the Board. Dividends and salaries to be repaid.

[PoppaJo]

They should go after any defined benefits/incentive/deferred super or anything that is still being paid out to JB and anyone associated with the last 10 years in a C line role.

There should not be single cent paid out to these people.

[sumtingwong]

They should go after any defined benefits/incentive/deferred super or anything that is still being paid out to JB and anyone associated with the last 10 years in a C line role.

There should not be single cent paid out to these people.

The only possible people who would disagree with that Poppa, would be the incompetents who are receiving largess from a problem they created.

[Foxxster]

ScoMo now advising against all DOMESTIC travel. You know what comes next. If not, here is a hint.

meanwhile in California.

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday ordered all Californians to stay at home, marking the first mandatory restrictions placed on the lives of all 40 million residents in the state’s fight against the novel coronavirus.
The governor’s order comes at a critical time in California, where 19 people have died and an additional 958 have tested positive for the disease. Newsom asked Californians to practice social distancing when leaving their homes to shop for groceries, pick up prescriptions, see their doctors or perform other “necessary activities.”

It follows an order from Los Angeles County and city officials issued Thursday that requires all indoor malls, shopping centers, playgrounds and non-essential retail businesses to close and prohibits gathering in enclosed spaces of more than 10 people.

[PoppaJo]

I don’t normally give Alan credit, but I do for this stab at JB and his horrendous management in the last decade at his competitor on Sky News this morning.

As the can has been opened more than ever in the past year, you really have to question how the **** the chairperson still there.

She has got to go when Virgin Mark 2 kicks off after this mess has subsided.

Can a CEO remove a chairperson? I think the majority of the workforce would back him in a vote was held.

[Des Dimona]

It's a disgrace what has happened at VA over the last decade. So much self indulgence on schemes that that only ever took cash out of the company. I don't understand how the board turned a blind eye to this waste.

Very unlikely that this company will survive in its present form in a COVID environment unless there was a significant cash injection to cover the period where there will be very little domestic flying (Bearing in mind that the most recent ASX update has already been overtaken by more COVID restrictions).

Every airline needs to survive or fall on its own merits. But if the government elects to provides assistance, it has to be on an industry wide basis and I so don't believe the government should go anywhere near nationalising (re-capitalising) Virgin, so if it has to fold, then it has to fold.

If it does fold, no doubt there will rise from the ashes a much leaner version that is run on a much more professional basis with people who actually know what they are doing.

[Berealgetreal]

I dont think that’s what alan meant Berealgetreal. Neither should be nationalised. The whole industry needs support I think was what he was getting at.

fingers crossed for everyone


CEO doesn’t agree, not impressed.

What sort of psychopath chimes in with competetive spirit in a moment like this he’s a F disgrace.

If anything this is olive branch time particularly from the bigger competitor (even if it’s just words). Very few people would behave this way, I hope I’m wrong as if I’m not he’s got some bad karma coming.

This is the sort of thing that could seriously blow up on social media and empty their planes permanently.

[Rashid Bacon]

My understanding was Joyce said the government should not look after mismanaged companies - which is a reasonable statement. It would mean that Qantas would then be competing with the government.

Not for a minute do I think the Australian government would seriously re finance Virgin Australia. As much as some want Virgin to fail, I hope that Scurrah can turn this company into a lean and profitable operation once this hurdle is overcome. I think it will mean redundancies in both Virgin and Tiger, whatever the outcome.

Qantas is also not immune, and if the economy flatlines after the COVID threat disappears, pilots will also be out of jobs in that organisation. Joyce has already indicated how ruthless he is in managing this and previous events.

[coaldemon]

This looks a lot like 20 years ago. QF is trying to put the foot on the throat but they never have worked out that with any outside shock they will overstep. In 2001 it was 9/11 in 2020 it is Corona. Either way the Government won"t bail out a private company especially one that is owned pretty much all by overseas entities. As for Alan he will always go for the jugular so no surprise there. QF has enough pain to get through and lets face it there will be many changes to the company models moving forward. We just haven't seen the outcome yet.

[Berealgetreal]

Mismanaged there no doubt but the new bloke turns up and before he pulls his chair in 737 Max, bushfires and then this.

Blind Freddy knows exactly what little Alan is getting at. Hope it blows up on him. Clown.

[mrs nomer]

I don't think it really matters which company it is around the world - the sad fact is that there will be job losses at most of them. Some less, some more.

The industry just can't switch on and recover overnight from such a global downturn as this, and if the demand isn't there after COVID, permanent job losses or redundancies are inevitable.

Neither Qantas or Virgin are immune from this.

[Sunfish]

Assume your job is permanently gone.

[Led Zeppelin]

Angryrat - what a great post.

Injects some reality, courtesy and commonsense into the topic.

Hope everything works out for everyone - whatever airline.

[wondrousbitofrough]

From a Qantas pilot who is about to receive their stood down email today, take care ladies and gents of you and your families. Remember there is always someone doing it tougher than you and all situations can be recovered as long as you have your health.

Also from past experience, just because AJ is a complete psychopath, it doesn’t mean that anyone else in Qantas wants to see you fail. In fact, most employees at the coal face detest him and don’t subscribe to what he says.

Over the years I came across ex-Ansett employees who had bad feelings towards Qantas employees. When I got to the bottom of it, it turns out that they were angry at Dixon for him saying something similar to what AJ has now said. Remember, we enjoy a friendly rivalry, but we don’t want to see you fail.

Take care and I hope to see all of us back flying soon.


Good to see some rare civility here, thank you, and best of luck.

[RodH]

I’m sure the Government will not Privatise VA but will assist both Airlines financially.
What really sticks in my gall is the utter hypocrisy of AJ when he bleats about “having to compete against the Government “ if they did privatise VA.
Ansett had to compete with the Government owned Airlines until 1990 and sure they didn’t like it very much but got on fairly well until it’s demise.
Seems like AJ has forgotten this or reckons he could not cope with it.
He sure wants his cake and be able to eat it as well.
Time to sit back and hope this all passes quickly enough to be able to restart both Airlines and also Businesses throughout Australia without too much pain.
Reckon there’s going to be a big rethink on trading with China given their failure to implement lock downs in Wuhan as was advised much earlier by a Doctor than they did.
Hard times ahead but we can and will get through this and it will turn out to be better for all “on the other side “.
Best wishes to all in the Airlines and elsewhere as well.
You will survive.

[Renton Field]

Thanks Rat,I know there is plenty of moral support for us at the Q,as there is at VA for you guys,and for all in the industry.
It’s good to see it in print after many derogatory posts from others who feel they are immune from the trouble..or just have zero empathy,and probably haven’t been down these roads before,as many of us have.
Hold Fast.

[Chad Gates]

Honestly, the last thing any QF pilot wants is fo VA to go bust. I promise you. Good luck to us all. This sucks.

[The Bullwinkle]

I’m confused where the idea of Virgin being privatised by the Government came from.
Was it all just a figment of the Leprechauns imagination to create a headline for himself?
If so, it backfired dramatically!

[Tangan]

I’m confused where the idea of Virgin being privatised by the Government came from.
Was it all just a figment of the Leprechauns imagination to create a headline for himself?
If so, it backfired dramatically!

I think you have your terms mixed up and mean Nationalised not Privatised.

[Vag277]

RodH

Under the two airline policy there was no competition. The legislation provided a "level" playing field.Neither airline could do something without government approval

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

What really sticks in my gall is the utter hypocrisy of AJ when he bleats about “having to compete against the Government “ if they did privatise VA.
Ansett had to compete with the Government owned Airlines until 1990 and sure they didn’t like it very much but got on fairly well until it’s demise.
Seems like AJ has forgotten this or reckons he could not cope with it.
He sure wants his cake and be able to eat it as well.

Same AJ who wanted an unsecured $3 billion loan from the government back in 2014...

As a temporarily-unemployed QF pilot, all the best to you folks over at Virgin. Like Chad says, no-one here wants to see VA go down.

[TimmyTee]

Same AJ who wanted an unsecured $3 billion loan from the government back in 2014...

As a temporarily-unemployed QF pilot, all the best to you folks over at Virgin. Like Chad says, no-one here wants to see VA go down.

glad to hear there’s at least one QF person not doing Joyce’s bidding in lobbying their local MP on his behalf

[Oriana]

Make that at least 2, Timmy you jerk off.:mad:

All of us have friends at Virgin and no one wants to see the place go under, nor any of their employees suffer.

[ambidextrous]

Windsor Castle update as from METRO Friday 20th.

AV pilots will be pleased to hear that our Queen is now safely ensconced in Windsor Castle, where she will be ready, with the Royal Family to play their part in the challenge!

P.S.: A lifetime ago, Peter Sellers made "I'm All Right Jack". As relevent now as it was then.!

[Blueskymine]

I’ve got just as many friends in Virgin/Tiger as I do in Qantas/Jetstar.

We will ALL be back scoffing at feeder fix estimates and requested levels before you know it.

Love you all guys. Even if you lie through your teeth and speak like blithering idiots on the radio :)

[longjohn]

The whole situation seems incredibly surreal. But for the fact that QF is now caught up in it, its AN all over again.

i particularly feel for the former Ansett staff now at VA, nobody deserves to go through this twice.

the government will look after votes, it will avoid setting a precedent.

[Rashid Bacon]

Now in the sandpit, but one who was fairly young in 2001 and went through the AN "experience", I only hope that VA can somehow succeed and that Scurrah can find a way out of this to keep this company afloat. :ok:

[TimmyTee]

Make that at least 2, Timmy you jerk off.:mad:

All of us have friends at Virgin and no one wants to see the place go under, nor any of their employees suffer.

Certainly wasn’t a go at anyone who is trying to help the whole industry! Hopefully someone challenged Alan’s request publicly...

[Servo]

I think that's it for VA. With the states closing their borders and existing position of the company, it is possibly the final straw. My family and I are in a real difficult position, financially. What a crazy world.

[-41]

No gat moa mani, em tasol. :ugh:

[f1yhigh]

From a QF employee I wish you all the best at VA, we are all in this together and we will get through this. Tail winds and safe landings to us all.

[Dookie on Drums]

From a QF employee I wish you all the best at VA, we are all in this together and we will get through this. Tail winds and safe landings to us all.


Very optimistic but no, not everyone will get through this. This is the dawn of a new era

[Oriana]

Certainly wasn’t a go at anyone who is trying to help the whole industry! Hopefully someone challenged Alan’s request publicly...
Apologies Timmy - I was a little uptight, and felt like you might have been tarring all of us with our management's brush.
Best wishes to all of us.

[AerialPerspective]

I’m sure the Government will not Privatise VA but will assist both Airlines financially.
What really sticks in my gall is the utter hypocrisy of AJ when he bleats about “having to compete against the Government “ if they did privatise VA.
Ansett had to compete with the Government owned Airlines until 1990 and sure they didn’t like it very much but got on fairly well until it’s demise.
Seems like AJ has forgotten this or reckons he could not cope with it.
He sure wants his cake and be able to eat it as well.
Time to sit back and hope this all passes quickly enough to be able to restart both Airlines and also Businesses throughout Australia without too much pain.
Reckon there’s going to be a big rethink on trading with China given their failure to implement lock downs in Wuhan as was advised much earlier by a Doctor than they did.
Hard times ahead but we can and will get through this and it will turn out to be better for all “on the other side “.
Best wishes to all in the Airlines and elsewhere as well.
You will survive.

Qantas may have been owned by the government back then but it operated in a cut-throat market against carriers for which Qantas' entire operation constituted, for some, 1% roughly of their operations. TAA was owned by the government and Ansett was a public, then private company. However, until 1990, AN and TN 'competition' was an utter joke... no other entrants allowed, 17,000 QF seats flying empty on domestic sectors of international flights every week not allowed to be sold, domestic air fares based on union demands followed by caving in then jacking the fares up. Number of seats, everything almost down to ads had to be approved.

Something else people forget, the AN/TN cabal INSISTED on QF and other international airlines offering pro-rata fares ... i.e. equivalent KM charge... but they abjectly REFUSED to do so for Qantas and other international airlines in return... Nope, you want interline to their network you pay the full, inflated, featherbedded and immovable fare.
AN and TN were not in competition, they were two mollycoddled, protected duopoly members. They wouldn't have known what competition was if it'd hit them in the face and both of them proved it when Compass started, by graciously offering the required to two gates... one on one pier and the other on the end of the second pier, about a kilometre apart. Qantas did the pushbacks because the domestics refused to.
So, we'll have no lectures about competition between AN and TN thanks.

As for the point AJ was making, rightly or wrongly, was that both airlines should be treated equally and the government should not nationalise a carrier which has mismanaged its balance sheet for more than 10 years. I sincerely hope VA survives and QF but it would seem a bit unfair if the government shelled out billions to save VA and QF got nothing and for maintaining a strong balance sheet it emerged weakened.

[Colonel_Klink]

Make no mistake - both airlines will be requiring assistance from the government.

[Berealgetreal]

Knowing Australian culture and society the way I do, I think Alan Joyce’s actions over the last few days could seriously backfire on him.

We don’t kick people when they are down here Alan. What we do is hold our hand out.

99.9% of QF staff would be deeply embarrassed by this latest effort.

Spirit of Australia he’s got it back to front.

[Paragraph377]

AerialPerspective, brilliant post. That is absolutely accurate, succinct and correct.

Bettergetreal; sadly you are wrong. Australians pride themselves on helping mates and being there for each other, but when you see fist fights over turd paper in a shopping isle and a child dying in hospital becasuse he couldn’t get basic medication because a bunch of selfish panicking ***** have stripped the chemist store bare buying excess supplies that will last them through a nuclear winter, you realise the Australian ‘mateship’ is long gone.

Make no mistake, like it or not, COVID-19 should be the least of people’s concerns. The economic fabric of the entire globe is disintegrating. This is an event that cannot be compared to 1919, 1987, 2008 and so on. There will be ‘no return to normality’ once this is finished. When things return the world will be a different landscape - economically, politically, society as a collective.

[machtuk]

AerialPerspective, brilliant post. That is absolutely accurate, succinct and correct.

Bettergetreal; sadly you are wrong. Australians pride themselves on helping mates and being there for each other, but when you see fist fights over turd paper in a shopping isle and a child dying in hospital becasuse he couldn’t get basic medication because a bunch of selfish panicking ***** have stripped the chemist store bare buying excess supplies that will last them through a nuclear winter, you realise the Australian ‘mateship’ is long gone.

Make no mistake, like it or not, COVID-19 should be the least of people’s concerns. The economic fabric of the entire globe is disintegrating. This is an event that cannot be compared to 1919, 1987, 2008 and so on. There will be ‘no return to normality’ once this is finished. When things return the world will be a different landscape - economically, politically, society as a collective.

spot on! We now live in a different world! The myth global warming & ISIS threats now take a back seat!
The world's environment is fragile but the world's economy is more so! What's the point of having a healthy planet of its species are dying from an economic disaster!
Stay safe everyone.

[Chad Gates]

Berealgetreal, what is the problem with what AJ said? He’s not kicking anyone when they are down. We are down too. He’s just saying the federal government can’t save VA and then not do the same for QF. I for one agree with him. To be honest this may be the best thing that could have happened to VA. They will now probably get some kind of bailout. QF will get the same, but if this hadn’t of happened VA would have gone broke, I’m sure of it. We are all in the ****. Stop throwing stones.

[ozbiggles]

Come on guys, you can’t all change your names to Chicken Little.

Get a grip, It’s not the World’s first rodeo at Pandemics, World Wars, terrorism

This will be fun to come back to in 6 months

Now if the internet goes down OMFG!!!!!!!

[dragon man]

Alan Joyce’s bloodthirst for Virgin collapse
Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce has never been one to waste a crisis. And since the novel coronavirus completely shuttered the travel industry, you’d expect an airline boss to feel a little jumpy.
Nevertheless, Joyce’s performance on Friday morning television – in which he warned the Morrison government against bailing out ‘‘the badly managed companies which have been badly managed for 10 years’’, i.e. Virgin Australia – was exceptionally inelegant.
He was overreacting to a comment piece in that day’s The Australian which imagined that ‘‘some companies may end up having to be nationalised, if even only temporarily’’ and that ‘‘Virgin could be one example’’ because ‘‘there is no way [the government] will allow Australia to return to a virtual single-carrier environment in a post-virus world’’.
Joyce’s initial comments on Sky – that Canberra ‘‘can’t pick winners and losers;
whatever aid is given to one particular company... has to be given to everybody in that sector’’ – would’ve sufficed perfectly. But Joyce’s shortcoming has always been in craving a needless fight.
On a conference call with prorogued Qantas employees later the same day, their CEO reportedly urged them (with their abrupt surfeit of spare time) to petition their federal MPs against this supposed bailout of Virgin.
It’s a low-quality way for the national carrier to conduct itself in the tumult of the worst health and economic crisis Australia
has ever seen. Such is Joyce’s bloodthirst for his competitor’s death rattle.
For lucrative reasons. After the collapse of Ansett in 2001, Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon creamed off $4.4 billion in net profits (after tax) in seven years as a virtual monopoly (even despite the highest oil prices in history), until Joyce replaced him in 2008.
By Joyce’s seventh year, he’d delivered $2.6 billion of accumulated losses and was begging Tony Abbott to pick winners and losers by extending him a $3 billion loan guarantee. And after 11 years, Joyce has accumulated net profits of only $1.75 billion – a factoid easy to forget when you see his remuneration ($92 million and counting), but crucial to remember when he critiques
other companies ‘‘which have been badly managed for 10 years’’.
Six years since he asked the federal government to save him, Joyce now reckons that ‘‘when good companies have managed their position very well, the government should let them manage their way through this’’.
His sudden aversion to any Commonwealth assistance is astonishing but welcome. Qantas could scarcely accept public cash only five months since his chairman Richard Goyder boasted that ‘‘at the end of this latest buyback, we’ll have bought back almost one-third of our shares since 2015 – the most of any company in the ASX All Ordinaries’’.
Yep, that’s $3.2 billion of excess cash
(on top of dividends) it returned to shareholders, or almost how much passenger revenue Qantas will suddenly forgo this March, April and
May. Handing it over (while reducing its own share count) massively juiced the airline’s share price and total shareholder returns, upon which Joyce’s bonuses are explicitly calculated. Thus management is incentivised not to save cash for a rainy day – nor, indeed, to reinvest profits productively, as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg pleaded in August.
It’s marvellous news that Qantas still has ‘‘plenty of bandwidth to last a very, very long time’’ through the corona crisis. And we’d be the last to pretend that Virgin’s relative financial infirmity is anything but its own doing. Joyce can be forgiven his lapse of judgment in these times of cognitive overload, but let’s not shoehorn post-crisis competition policy into his tactical manoeuvrings for advantage.

Where is Goyder , where’s the board, the arrogance of him he should be sacked. Qantas has been price gouging for years without Virgin they would be out of control. I work for Qantas I am embarrassed and ashamed.

[John Citizen]

More cuts coming (https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/coronavirus-qantas-virgin-australia-to-ground-more-domestic-flights/news-story/20fabe9dcac8283baf6a7dd01f501066)



The airline said this morning it “expects a material reduction in its domestic capacity” in light of federal and state government measures to crack down on the spread of coronavirus

[-41]

Berealgetreal, what is the problem with what AJ said? He’s not kicking anyone when they are down. We are down too. He’s just saying the federal government can’t save VA and then not do the same for QF. I for one agree with him. To be honest this may be the best thing that could have happened to VA. They will now probably get some kind of bailout. QF will get the same, but if this hadn’t of happened VA would have gone broke, I’m sure of it. We are all in the ****. Stop throwing stones.

i have to agree with what your saying, even as an employee I don’t agree with taxpayers propping up VA. Why should they VA is totally stuffed financially - this is not the employees doing, how is it not trading insolvent right now?

The mis management has been guided by the board and chairwoman. Anyone whom disagreed divested their share holdings (Air NZ) or was promptly shown the door (JT). The current chairwoman is silent.

Do tell how It can survive any length of time. When 5.7billion came in revenue they still managed to “burn” effectively 1 million a week.

The Naysayers continued to tell us, nah it’s all good we have 1 billion in cash.
You’ll burn that 960million $ AUD pretty quick on leases and other commitments/debt I assume are written in USD.

The rot continues today Non EBA staff only being asked to take one month LWOP at “their”leisure over the next 6months, whilst frontline staff are stood down.

That’s great I’m glad the social team has been “stood up”
FFS cupcakes all round Yeahhhhhh it’s international women’s day, yup that’s what’s important when we are drowning throw us another bull**** distraction to get behind.

The icing on the cake is QQ still flying wet leases with with VA crew and airframes grounded.

Who cares about Joyce, save your own company.

[Dewa_Gede_70]

i have to agree with what your saying, even as an employee I don’t agree with taxpayers propping up VA. Why should they VA is totally stuffed financially - this is not the employees doing, how is it not trading insolvent right now?

The mis management has been guided by the board and chairwoman. Anyone whom disagreed divested their share holdings (Air NZ) or was promptly shown the door (JT). The current chairwoman is silent.

Do tell how It can survive any length of time. When 5.7billion came in revenue they still managed to “burn” effectively 1 million a week.

The Naysayers continued to tell us, nah it’s all good we have 1 billion in cash.
You’ll burn that 960million $ AUD pretty quick on leases and other commitments/debt I assume are written in USD.

The rot continues today Non EBA staff only being asked to take one month LWOP at “their”leisure over the next 6months, whilst frontline staff are stood down.

That’s great I’m glad the social team has been “stood up”
FFS cupcakes all round Yeahhhhhh it’s international women’s day, yup that’s what’s important when we are drowning throw us another bull**** distraction to get behind.

The icing on the cake is QQ still flying wet leases with with VA crew and airframes grounded.

Who cares about Joyce, save your own company.




Couldn’t agree more!!!