VA pilots worried about employment 2021

[MAYDAYVA]

Spoke to number of VA pilots recently & all seemed worried about their employment in about 18 months, ie. that VA might close down, while spoke to a wholesaler about going to USA & asked why they didn’t sell VA & they said VA are almost impossible to deal with.

The wholesaler sells 1000s of seats to USA a year & yet VA don’t even bother to talk to them.

Wholesaler gave up on VA.

[BlackPanther]

I have no affiliation with VA so I don't know them intimately but as a long-term external observer I would think that VA need more time.

My 'spies' tell me that they are still working out what the hell is happening after the change of CEO. They are trying to unwind a heap of commitments (both internal and external) that were just ridiculous, before they try and focus on actually making SOLID profit.

Surely now is the best time to try and fix things up - Qantas is weak. Far weaker than most realise.

[wheels_down]

Why did John spend so much cash for no obvious return? On so many parts of the business? Bizarre.

Its a CFO’s absolute nightmare.

PS will get there. Going to take time to unravel everything. They keep finding stuff along the way.

[SOPS]

I have no affiliation with VA so I don't know them intimately but as a long-term external observer I would think that VA need more time.

My 'spies' tell me that they are still working out what the hell is happening after the change of CEO. They are trying to unwind a heap of commitments (both internal and external) that were just ridiculous, before they try and focus on actually making SOLID profit.

Surely now is the best time to try and fix things up - Qantas is weak. Far weaker than most realise.


Alan gets 24 mill.. how could Qantas be weak under is leadership?

[Double_Clutch]

IMHO - How the board allowed this to happen and remain in their job is questionable.

They didn’t appear to try and contain the spending habits and decisions

[gordonfvckingramsay]

Buk buk buk buk.

The price/capacity war, outsourcing/giving control of your product to someone else and IR brutality chickens are all coming home to roost. The CEOs and boards of all Australian airlines have lied to investors about the “amazing” profitability for so long that they are now in deep doodoo if they don’t deliver. No one is steering the ship anymore and the service is quite honestly crap. All we need is a terrible disaster and the circle will be complete.

[machtuk]

Australian Airlines have been bumbling along for many years, from one cock up to another! Investors continue to flock in as the Airlines water down the perch!
It's entertaining for sure!-)

[Paragraph377]

Investing in Virgin is as good as flushing your money down the crapper. From the first day they listed on the stock exchange the price started heading South. The only ones to make many many tens of millions out of the float were Branson, Godfrey and Sherrard. A couple of other mates such as Highfield and Gill and a few others who went to school with Godfrey also made a few million each. All of this took place mostly behind the scenes while naieve staff blindly followed Richard the piedpiper. Share price has never recovered from Godfrey incompetence, never recovered from Borghetti incompetence and today you still have an unworkable long term business model. I’m not hearing any favourable information coming from the Village idiots regarding the performance of Scurrah who inherited a steaming pile of ****. A poison chalice of epic proportions. The business is, has been and always will be a lemon. One serious accident, a massive oil spike due to a war, or a disease outbreak (which I mendtioned on a different thread well before Caronavirus came about) and it’s ‘game over’ for Virgin Australia, not ‘game changer’. Let’s see how Caronavirus tests their ability to cope with a hit to their war chest. Good luck. If what happened to Qantas during the SARS outbreak happens to Virgin with the Caronavirus outbreak, it’s all over. The company has no flesh on its bones and nothing behind it help it survive a major hit to the aviation industry.

[davidclarke]

I think the most worry is coming from Tiger pilots at the moment.

Downsizing.....
Losing routes......
Chief pilot leaving......

Still being told more 737s will be coming in 2021 when we all know that there is no chance of VA getting their 737-10s by then, so no chance of Tiger getting those hand me downs.

[Capt Fathom]

Spoke to number of VA pilots recently

How do you do that? Do you stalk coffee shops or crew rooms? :}

[speedbird983]

Love the entertainment pprune provides on layovers

[AerialPerspective]

Spoke to number of VA pilots recently & all seemed worried about their employment in about 18 months, ie. that VA might close down, while spoke to a wholesaler about going to USA & asked why they didn’t sell VA & they said VA are almost impossible to deal with.

The wholesaler sells 1000s of seats to USA a year & yet VA don’t even bother to talk to them.

Wholesaler gave up on VA.

Not an unusual attitude, having had personal experience I can attest that at least one of the reasons Air NZ gave the flick to them was because whenever VA had a problem they expected NZ to drop everything and help (such as when $$$ were needed) but goodness forbid if NZ had a diversion and needed to use standard industry processes for exchange of passengers.

Misconceptions about how FIMs work (based on utter BS and assumption) and a horrid system that is so bad it makes the staff look incompetent, meant NZ passengers sometimes got sent back and forward between VA and NZ several times. In the end, in most circumstances I think it would be fair to say, NZ just gave up and sent the passengers to QF who processed them immediately and then worked out the paperwork later - like 'real' airlines do.

[AerialPerspective]

Why did John spend so much cash for no obvious return? On so many parts of the business? Bizarre.

Its a CFO’s absolute nightmare.

PS will get there. Going to take time to unravel everything. They keep finding stuff along the way.

And why the hell was he awarded an AM for 'services to aviation' FFS...

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Virgin Australia isn't going anywhere. They're cashflow positive. They can service their debts. Cashflow is more important than profit. They're both important - but cashflow rules. They have free cash. So they're not going anywhere. They're holding back capital spend and 'clearing the decks'. They're making a number of strategic decisions that will reshape the carrier - and the carrier will be a different one within the next 12 months - but it will still be here none-the-less. It will be fine. The market can support both.

But... there may be less demand for pilots with any fleet adjustments they make.

EBIT is stil trending in the right direction...

[porch monkey]

You keep injecting some common sense and making statements like that around here T Vasis, and you'll get burnt at the stake, you heretic!!

[VH-ABC]

Agreed... very well said. Just wish it was said in a slightly larger font for those of us needing glasses, but too proud to get some.

[Stickshift3000]

Agreed... very well said. Just wish it was said in a slightly larger font for those of us needing glasses, but too proud to get some.

Thats the ‘pretending to do work but really typing out a response to more important issues’ font. I have utilised it often.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

I'm just fond of Arial...:}

[Mr Google Head]

Cue the ship jumpers....

[galdian]

Jumping ship to where....China? :hmm:

[The Bullwinkle]

With a name like ‘MAYDAYVA’, I would think this is a wind up! 🤔

I hope he is enjoying his glass of red!

And his/her one and only post! :rolleyes:

[speedbird983]

MAYDAYVA might be Alan Joyce’s new pprune alias

[Buster Hyman]

I thought you had to have a few posts up before you could start a wind up...sorry, new thread? :confused:

[porch monkey]

JHC T-Vasis, do me a favour and use a bigger font!! Or maybe I now need those glasses..........I thought I read Anal.........

[Fool Sufferer]

The thread starter, otherwise known as BNEA320, has a long history of indulging its peculiar and pathetic little fetish of attempting to instil fear, uncertainty and doubt in Australian airline employees. Best ignored.

[burned_out]

I think the most worry is coming from Tiger pilots at the moment.

Downsizing.....
Losing routes......
Chief pilot leaving......

Still being told more 737s will be coming in 2021 when we all know that there is no chance of VA getting their 737-10s by then, so no chance of Tiger getting those hand me downs.

Spot on, and when asking the powers that be about this, they are adamant that the MAX's will come 2021! They have NO plan B at all. Cost cutting without a plan and relying on a grounded a/c is a little worrying !

None of the ivory tower peeps ever come onto the front line for a day or two to do the obvious/undercover boss thing to see whats happening... No skin in the game so policies are reflective of accounting manipulations only, not long term ramifications Re:TT fleet change (10's of Millions wasted with no real impact on TT, especially given that the plan is 3 CEO's old and a questionable decision at best!)

[WillieTheWimp]

330s will be quiet now that HK is gone I’d imagine.

[Mr Approach]

Nobody has mentioned the airline's governing body, the board, look them and their CVs up.
Nil experience in running an airline stands out for all, except three from Etihad, HNA and SIA (I don't count Angus Houston, he ran an Air Force, major difference no customer relations needed, no requirement to make money!)
How do such people get to sit on the board of an airline? Beats me.....

[B772]

I am not surprised Mark Chellew has resigned as a Virgin Australia director. Mark was a member of the audit and risk management committee. Enough said !.

[porch monkey]

Two sides to every story. Just happens that Chellew was chairman of the remuneration committee/board/whatever. It seems that the recent bonus and subsequent departure of a certain individual hasn't gone down to well with the new fuhrer.

[Lead Balloon]

They're cashflow positive. They can service their debts. Cashflow is more important than profit. They're both important - but cashflow rules. They have free cash. Ponzi schemes are ‘cashflow positive’; until they’re not.

Give me profit margin over cashflow any day.

[B772]

Looking at the VA Balance Sheet total current liabilities are about 50% greater than the total current assets. With net gearing in excess of 200% and zero % return on capital VA are well behind QF who enjoy net gearing of 87% and 13% return on capital. Net tangible asset backing per share for VA is nil. A black swan event could make VA vulnerable to collapse or take over by SQ.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Give me profit margin over cashflow any day.

Net profit has its merits - it is a powerful measure for thinking about how shareholders have been doing - but it has its problems. First, it treats cash and noncash expenses symmetrically. Second, net profit also subtracts interest payments, which make it hard to compare companies that finance themselves in different ways even though their operations could be quite similar. Finally, and most importantly - many managerial decisions are involved in calculating profit. Accounting asks managers to make decisions in order to smooth returns, as accountants consider that to be more consistent with reality. This allows managers to manipulate profits to their advantage. In contrast, cash is cash, and arguably, is not susceptible to similar managerial discretion.

Amazon is a good example. In 2014 their net profit was negative $241m. EBIT was $178m. $419m was tax, interest and currency adjustments. EBITDA was $4.9b. $4.7b was depreciation and amortization. Amazon generated a lot of cash but had losses according to profitability measures.

Cash is a better measure of economic returns relative to profits. The emphasis on cash can explain why companies that generate profits but no cash, might be unsustainable and why companies that generate no profits but lots of cash might be valuable. Second - cash that is earned today is more valuable than cash earned tomorrow because of the opportunity cost of capital. Ignoring the opportunity cost can lead to value destruction or value transfers. All value comes from future cash flows and making positive net present value decisions is the hallmark of a good steward of capital and manager.

[Shot Nancy]

Gee T-Vasis that made so much sense.
Thanks.

[jmmoric]

Why would companies even create a profit now a days? With a profit you have to pay taxes. Companies are making all sorts of "legal" loop-holes to avoid paying a dime, ****ting on the rest of us tax payers. It should be possible to beat the crap out of them with a baseball bat.

[coaldemon]

Cashflow is King and PBT is the only measure that is viewed favourably by Financiers. Cash Flow positive may have gone out the door with Hong Kong, Corona (the pandemic that wasn't) and Bushfires. Time will tell

[DanV2]

Looking at the VA Balance Sheet total current liabilities are about 50% greater than the total current assets. With net gearing in excess of 200% and zero % return on capital VA are well behind QF who enjoy net gearing of 87% and 13% return on capital. Net tangible asset backing per share for VA is nil. A black swan event could make VA vulnerable to collapse or take over by SQ.

Not even SQ wants to touch VA those days. They've been on record previously that they were not happy with their VA stake for some time after having to report VA's losses in the SIA group's own financial reports.

I would not be surprised if SQ are looking at selling out themselves. There's a better chance of outsiders such as DL, NH or TK taking a stake over the "so-called saviour" SQ, which are just as responsible as EY and HNA for VA's financial messes over the years.

[porch monkey]

Ahh, another prune investment adviser. Dunno why I pay mine, I can just come here and get all the investment info I need.

[wheels_down]

SQ not happy with their stake? That’s laughable considering them and EY played a huge part with tweaking and funding all the capex blowouts.

You really have no idea how much those two had input. They had a lot of say behind closed doors. The guys in Kiwi land had no chance as they didn’t agree with rolling funding.

EY and SQ are largely responsible for the financial mess they are in today. So SQ can suck it up.

[TimmyTee]

Obviously DanV1 went bankrupt off the back of his own financial advice, and is now back in a brand new suit!

[davidclarke]

A330 crew being asked to use up leave and potentially go on LWOP. Seems a bit extreme so early after giving up HK when Japan starts soon.

[MACH6]

VA obviously planned on both routes being serviced hence the extra crew. Now that the Hong Kong flights have been cancelled, the extra crew are surplus to requirements. Hence discussion of taking annual leave, long service leave and LWOP. It's probably a prudent approach over the short term as the medium to long term options are not that great if the virus fears continue and new routes for the 330 are not found. The 330 crews have an added dilemma of recently being covered by the wide body EBA which means they have limited options of being assimilated back into the B737 ranks as the narrow body EBA protects existing narrow body pilots from being displaced from existing roles.

Also, VA may be expecting the new Haneda service to be adversely impacted by the virus as well.

[AerialPerspective]

Not even SQ wants to touch VA those days. They've been on record previously that they were not happy with their VA stake for some time after having to report VA's losses in the SIA group's own financial reports.

I would not be surprised if SQ are looking at selling out themselves. There's a better chance of outsiders such as DL, NH or TK taking a stake over the "so-called saviour" SQ, which are just as responsible as EY and HNA for VA's financial messes over the years.

It is tiring this love affair that some either in the media or the industry have for SQ... this is an airline that is effectively government owned to the tune of something like 90%, is not making the highest profits itself, had another go at the Australian market setting up TT which was an unmitigated disaster so they offloaded it to VA to save face. What is so damn brilliant about this particular company?

[Harbour Dweller]

Apparently Scurrah’s simplified organisational restructuring has extended into the A330 fleet office.

Some deck chairs are now unoccupied.

[Servo]

Apparently Scurrah’s simplified organisational restructuring has extended into the A330 fleet office.

Some deck chairs are now unoccupied.

I wonder if that includes the ones out of seniority??

[Capt. On Heat]

Some deck chairs?? I heard the fleet was gone 😬😕- Best wishes to all affected.

[wheels_down]

77W to Haneda? Add one more to the fleet? The next round of MAX delay negotiations could include a discounted Triple. Delivery times are fairly minimal currently, and essentially guarantees Boeing the next wide body order due late this decade, if they phase out the 330

Etihad could offload one. USA does well so they wouldn't want to pull back anymore to cede any share.

The triple fleet can ride out this decade.

737/777/ATR would tick that fleet simplification box. It also enables them from next decade to be MAX8, MAX10, 777-8, ATR without much fanfare.

Can you park 330's in Nelson?

[SimBud]

I heard the fleet was gone

Hypothetically, if this eventuates, what options exist for A330 flight crews?

[Servo]

Hypothetically, if this eventuates, what options exist for A330 flight crews?

737 fleet is not exactly flush with drivers. I am sure a large number could come back. The training costs and time to train would be a big issue. I think a lot of rumours and lack of definitive information from management is not helping. In fact management are probably scratching their head at the whole thing.

*There is a clause in narrow body EBA about position protection. Although the company will just waive that, like they usually do when it is not working in their favour.

[Dewa_Gede_70]

737 fleet is not exactly flush with drivers. I am sure a large number could come back. The training costs and time to train would be a big issue. I think a lot of rumours and lack of definitive information from management is not helping. In fact management are probably scratching their head at the whole thing.

*There is a clause in narrow body EBA about position protection. Although the company will just waive that, like they usually do when it is not working in their favour.


Highly unlikely I would say.

[Servo]

Highly unlikely I would say.

Virgin and flight ops management have NEVER wasted a crisis to better their position.

[34R]

Be interesting when VA get their Max’s, (which is a fair assumption given the max sim is on the way).... how will public perception impact on onwards bookings?
Joe six pack seems to believe what mainstream media peddle...... perception is everything...... not sure how well that is going to go down

[Lead Balloon]

Net profit has its merits - it is a powerful measure for thinking about how shareholders have been doing - but it has its problems. First, it treats cash and noncash expenses symmetrically. Second, net profit also subtracts interest payments, which make it hard to compare companies that finance themselves in different ways even though their operations could be quite similar. Finally, and most importantly - many managerial decisions are involved in calculating profit. Accounting asks managers to make decisions in order to smooth returns, as accountants consider that to be more consistent with reality. This allows managers to manipulate profits to their advantage. In contrast, cash is cash, and arguably, is not susceptible to similar managerial discretion.

Amazon is a good example. In 2014 their net profit was negative $241m. EBIT was $178m. $419m was tax, interest and currency adjustments. EBITDA was $4.9b. $4.7b was depreciation and amortization. Amazon generated a lot of cash but had losses according to profitability measures.

Cash is a better measure of economic returns relative to profits. The emphasis on cash can explain why companies that generate profits but no cash, might be unsustainable and why companies that generate no profits but lots of cash might be valuable. Second - cash that is earned today is more valuable than cash earned tomorrow because of the opportunity cost of capital. Ignoring the opportunity cost can lead to value destruction or value transfers. All value comes from future cash flows and making positive net present value decisions is the hallmark of a good steward of capital and manager.
I do hope you’ve been to or teach at the Harvard Business School, T-V, because that’s one of the more impressive collections of meaningless financial rhetoric I’ve read in quite a while.

[B772]

Virgin Australia shares (VAH) on the ASX closed down 10.34% today. The lowest price on record. The market depth shows little interest in VAH with the number for sale vastly outnumbering the number to buy.

[Paragraph377]

Virgin Australia shares (VAH) on the ASX closed down 10.34% today. The lowest price on record. The market depth shows little interest in VAH with the number for sale vastly outnumbering the number to buy.
This is just the beginning. I wouldn’t be buying a lemon either. 2020 has a lot in store for this world - disease, wars, economies failing, Brexit fallout, China/Russia/India buying and selling oil and commodities by using gold and their own joint currency and not the USD, western society political and civil unrest, democracies failing, tourism decimated by natural diasters and the list goes on. Then you have the Tangerine Anus and the UK Sloth just making things that little bit worse for mankind in general. A world teetering on the edge of a massive slide down into ****sville. Don’t worry about the share price, be worried about VAH’s longevity. The organisation is in an absolute mess courtesy of impotent Boards and useless CEO’s. Scurrah will not be the airlines Messiah, I can assure you, his success in turning the abhorrent business around will be as successful as Borghetti and Godfrey’s try. There is only so much glitter that you can apply to a turd.

[Arthur D]

Compass, Compass II, Ansett, Virgin....... RIP

[hoss]

Guys can I top your glasses up, they look half full!

[Goat Whisperer]

A330 crew being asked to use up leave and potentially go on LWOP. Seems a bit extreme so early after giving up HK when Japan starts soon.

Japan takes only half the crew displaced from the 2 lost HKG runs. This leaves the 330 very overcrewed, especially for FOs, as VA runs 2 FOs to HKG.

[PoppaJo]

I just don’t understand why they don’t just put the things back on Domestic where they originally started, and send the corresponding 737s to the Pussycat.

Poor old Tiger, after all these years nobody still gives two ****s about it. I reckon if VA was given free Tiger painted 737s from Boeing for Christmas they still wouldn’t send them to Tiger.

There is more chance of Virgin leasing 737s to Qantas then going to Tiger!

[Servo]

Japan takes only half the crew displaced from the 2 lost HKG runs. This leaves the 330 very overcrewed, especially for FOs, as VA runs 2 FOs to HKG.

I assume they will be doing the same for Japan?

Still, 2 sectors down MEL/SYD-HKG.

Just feels like the typical knee jerk reaction that has plagued Virgin since its inception, bolstered by Scurrah's big stick approach to trying to contain money being spent.

[Goat Whisperer]

Servo

the company has expressed that the HND run COULD be done 2 crew, after a bedding in phase, as both ends have closer in alternates than HKG. That seems a long way off with the number of idle A330 FOs.

[Jc31]

I’m hearing rumors that vara crew have been asked to take redundancies.

[Ragnor]

I’m hearing rumors that vara crew have been asked to take redundancies.

Why would VARA crew have forced redundancies?

[Goat Whisperer]

Why would VARA crew have forced redundancies?

Because the VARA F100 fleet is being reduced by 3 airframes.

[TBM-Legend]

https://www.travelweekly.com.au/article/virgin-australia-shares-at-10-year-low/


Is it time to buy or jump?

[Capt. On Heat]

Servo

the company has expressed that the HND run COULD be done 2 crew, after a bedding in phase, as both ends have closer in alternates than HKG. That seems a long way off with the number of idle A330 FOs.

Goat I wasn't being dramatic earlier, I think the 330 decision is all but done, announcement in March? I thought this was fairly common knowledge (well rumour...) amongst the crew aside from fluffy press release confirmation.
Explains all the running around in the village. Ask a few people there directly and evaluate the responses.

[mates rates]

Before there is any talk of redundancy the unions need to start talking about all that VA flying currently being done by Alliance.

[DUXNUTZ]

Before there is any talk of redundancy the unions need to start talking about all that VA flying currently being done by Alliance.

Hold onto your hats cos there will prob be even more now. Bring back the 190s and outsource them.

[WillieTheWimp]

Before there is any talk of redundancy the unions need to start talking about all that VA flying currently being done by Alliance.

What aeroplane should VA operate the alliance flying with.

[big buddah]

https://www.travelweekly.com.au/article/virgin-australia-shares-at-10-year-low/


Is it time to buy or jump?

If you’re brave, buy. All airline stocks are down.

[burned_out]

I’m hearing rumors that vara crew have been asked to take redundancies.
Why? anythings possible, but VARA are getting Tiger's A320's.... and they will expand them into the future, so I dont think VARA should be overly worried (but have a plan B guys!).
Tigerair are the ones that should be worried, with VA taking their profitable routes (PPP), downsizing and swapping over to an ancient 737 from the Airbus

[The Baron]

Old Mates is right. 737s have operated into Rocky, Gladstone and a lot of the other ports. Not one pilot should have to take leave without pay or redundancy while a contractor owned by the opposition is doing Virgin flying.

[wheels_down]

They do have 700s which could essentially take over many of the Alliance routes with a more sustainable seat count if they are worried about the -800 being too big.

A330 FO's could take commands on the Airbus at VARA or Tiger? If they are really wanting to stick with the Airbus.

[The Bullwinkle]

They do have 700s
Only 2 left now!

[WipperSnapper]

Why? anythings possible, but VARA are getting Tiger's A320's.... and they will expand them into the future, so I dont think VARA should be overly worried (but have a plan B guys!).
Tigerair are the ones that should be worried, with VA taking their profitable routes (PPP), downsizing and swapping over to an ancient 737 from the Airbus

Not in the near future. VARA wanted more 320s and were told no. FNP is leaving the fleet against their will next month so they're reducing the 320 and F100 fleet. Between the two, a 20% fleet reduction over a few months.

[DUXNUTZ]

Mutterings from some for all pilots to take temporary pay cut to offset the 330 pain. Where were these pilots when it came to the GDOJ and command priority debacle?

[Servo]

Reverse date of joining for losing ones position. Now a pay cut. If true, they are drinking cool aid in Virgin head office. A mess created by poor management and ego. Once again the pointy end staff pays the price, whilst others walk away with an obscene amount of money or remain in their ivory chairs in their ivory tower, protecting their position. What a horrible industry.

[VH DSJ]

What aeroplane should VA operate the alliance flying with.

How about the parked Ejet E190s in Nashville that VA is still paying the leases for?

[big buddah]

Reverse date of joining for losing ones position. Now a pay cut. If true, they are drinking cool aid in Virgin head office. A mess created by poor management and ego. Once again the pointy end staff pays the price, whilst others walk away with an obscene amount of money or remain in their ivory chairs in their ivory tower, protecting their position. What a horrible industry.

how about one agrees to an EBA that is silo’d for redundancies. Wide body loses work, wide body loses pilots.

[DUXNUTZ]

how about one agrees to an EBA that is silo’d for redundancies. Wide body loses work, wide body loses pilots.

Cos they want it all. They laughed and mocked how hard 737 drivers were working when they were getting paid to work 40 hr rosters. Now they want narrow bodies to pay for their leave.

Get bent.

[t_cas]

Cos they want it all. They laughed and mocked how hard 737 drivers were working when they were getting paid to work 40 hr rosters. Now they want narrow bodies to pay for their leave.

Get bent.

open your eyes nutz. You may see it coming.

[Servo]

DUXNUTZ statement has a lot of truth to it. 737 pilots doing 80-85 hours per month, with not recent or discernible pay increase. "Recent" pay increases to E-Jets when they were here, A330 and 777. All negotiated and voted on.

Now you have the Pacific crew (NZ) recently being awarded a pay increase, with less flying, some of which has now been taken up by the AUS based 737 crew.

737 crew are tired.

Let us ALL remember that none of this was the flight crews doing from ANY fleet. Once again, it is expected though for them to take the hit. Easier when they are silo'd as well. Just the way the company wanted.

[Berealgetreal]

The mood and lack of empathy of domestic pilots is exacerbated by the Preferential Bidding System being disabled/degraded within a couple of rosters of the new EBA being voted up.

Years and years of shouldering the burden of fat inefficient factions has made them
numb and indifferent to others’ problems including the seriousness of the Corona virus and it’s effect on forward bookings. At work they’re exhausted at home they’re exhausted and on it goes.

They’re not heartless, naughty (sick leave) or vendicative just tired and stressed. I’m seeing a lot of guys starting to have serious relationship problems.

The “Game Change” program needs to be unwound and the company needs to get back to basics. Unfortunately restraint and seriousness isn’t visible to domestic pilots and this is just pissing them off even more. Throwing parties for Xmas and cutting cakes every week whilst being told of financial woes for a decade doesn’t incentivise or inspire those on at the pointy end of the money truck.

To make things worse, the job has never been harder. The rosters are gruelling and anything that goes near the triangle involves large amount of ATC/flow nonsense with INCESSANT frequency change/chatter, COBTs and Feeder Fix bull**** it absolutely never ends. Atis updates and runway changes particularly out of the “naughty base” Melbourne is incredible. 1 degree change new atis, fire fighters eating lunch new atis on and on it goes.

None of my previous employers (including office work) had this addiction to frivolity and happy faces. You just turned up, did your bit, got paid and went home. If you didn’t like it you moved on and we’re replaced in an instant. Maybe it’s a new era and all companies do it now.

In General Aviation the focus on cost control and attention to detail was second to none, if you put a foot wrong (waste) you would hear about it.

The waste isn’t all one sided, it includes Pilots where opportunities to safely save fuel on the ground are scoffed at. Imagine you ran your own home like that. Meanwhile up at the gate, staff are rolling eyes at unsuspecting passengers whilst looking at Strawberrynet and oncoming poorly presented crew hide to avoid helping get the airplane get back out on time (best mates until it involves lifting a finger on an ARDUOS 9:45 duty). Admittedly hiding from work seems to have become an art form unless you are at the pointy end of the 737 and based in either Syd or Mel.

Professionalism and pride in your work isn’t something you switch on and off you either have it or you don’t.

The ‘can do’ attitude I’ve noticed gradually eroding amongst domestic drivers over the years. No wonder.

Just watch the sobbing if this one can’t get turned around, it’ll be all to f late then won’t it?

[donkey767]

DUXNUTZ says; ”Cos they want it all. They laughed and mocked how hard 737 drivers were working when they were getting paid to work 40 hr rosters”

That has never been said by anyone on the 330 you idiot, you are talking through your arsehole. Wake up to yourself and be united with the whole pilot group to work through it, however that may be. You seem to be loving the idea of some of the most senior pilots in the company becoming redundant.

I agree. The WB pilots aren’t the ones who are responsible for the 330 making no money or being put on unprofitable routes??

Management want us to be divided. We should all be sticking together through tough times like these...

[t_cas]

737 crew are tired.

Let us ALL remember that none of this was the flight crews doing from ANY fleet. Once again, it is expected though for them to take the hit. Easier when they are silo'd as well. Just the way the company wanted.

that is my point. Instead of “get bent” .... how about see it for what it is and prepare for what is coming. Not the pilots doing. Holding a grudge based on personal perception is illogical.

[Colonel_Klink]

DUXNUTZ says; ”Cos they want it all. They laughed and mocked how hard 737 drivers were working when they were getting paid to work 40 hr rosters”

That has never been said by anyone on the 330 you idiot, you are talking through your arsehole. Wake up to yourself and be united with the whole pilot group to work through it, however that may be. You seem to be loving the idea of some of the most senior pilots in the company becoming redundant.

They may not have laughed and mocked the 737 pilots, but they were more than happy to gloat about doing 40-50 hours a month as that 73 pilot was doing 80 hours. They were more than happy to tell 737 pilots they have a string of 7-10 days off as that 73 pilot has done his 5th 4 sector day followed by 2 days off to then do it all again. They are more than happy to tell the 73 pilots that they are doing a $12k call out for a trip.

A bit of humility wouldn’t go astray - and this applies equally to both WB type pilots. And perhaps if that had been the case - there might be some more sympathy from 737 pilots.

[t_cas]

They may not have laughed and mocked the 737 pilots, but they were more than happy to gloat about doing 40-50 hours a month as that 73 pilot was doing 80 hours. They were more than happy to tell 737 pilots they have a string of 7-10 days off as that 73 pilot has done his 5th 4 sector day followed by 2 days off to then do it all again. They are more than happy to tell the 73 pilots that they are doing a $12k call out for a trip.

A bit of humility wouldn’t go astray - and this applies equally to both WB type pilots. And perhaps if that had been the case - there might be some more sympathy from 737 pilots.

Callouts like that generally involve significant over time. Therefore brings to question the 40-50 hrs per month claim. Sometimes we don’t like the truth to get in the way of a great story.

[neville_nobody]

Trouble brewing here folks:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/china-to-take-over-hna-group-and-sell-its-airline-assets-report-says.html
Original Report at Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/china-said-to-near-takeover-of-hna-group-as-virus-hits-business


China plans to take over HNA Group and sell its airline assets as coronavirus hits business, report says



China plans to take over HNA Group Co and sell off its airline assets, as the coronavirus outbreak has hit the Chinese conglomerate’s ability to meet financial obligations, Bloomberg reported (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/china-said-to-near-takeover-of-hna-group-as-virus-hits-business?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflo w-twitter-business) on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The government of Hainan, the southern province where HNA is based, is in talks to take control of the conglomerate, the
report said. HNA directly controls or holds stakes in a number of local carriers, including its flagship Hainan Airlines.

HNA did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Bloomberg report.

HNA Group was once one of China’s most aggressive deal making firms, spending $50 billion to build an empire that once spread from Deutsche Bank to Hilton Worldwide.

It began unwinding those bets two years ago to shift the focus to its core airlines and tourism businesses, after drawing
scrutiny from Beijing and other overseas regulators.

In December, its chairman Chen Feng said that the firm had faced cash flow shortages that forced it to delay some salary
payments in 2019, but vowed to resolve its liquidity risks this year.

The company has in recent weeks come under pressure from the new coronavirus outbreak in China which has forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights.

Hainan Airlines and other airlines have tried to cut their losses by putting foreign pilots on unpaid leave, Reuters
reported on Tuesday. Hong Kong Airlines, also part-owned by HNA, said on Friday that it will cut 400 jobs.

China’s aviation regulator acknowledged the industry’s pains last week, and said it would support restructurings or mergers to help airlines cope with the epidemic.

[davidclarke]

I think it’s safe to say HNA are done for. Corona virus will just speed it up.

It will be interesting who decides to buy their share of VA and and if, they do in fact get anything for it.......

[t_cas]

I’ll give them a dollar.

[DUXNUTZ]

DUXNUTZ says; ”Cos they want it all. They laughed and mocked how hard 737 drivers were working when they were getting paid to work 40 hr rosters”

That has never been said by anyone on the 330 you idiot, you are talking through your arsehole. Wake up to yourself and be united with the whole pilot group to work through it, however that may be. You seem to be loving the idea of some of the most senior pilots in the company becoming redundant.


Words in mouth. Don’t want anyone to lose their job. I do hope the 330 guys get exactly what they are entitled to according to the wide body agreement they signed in good faith. It’s insane that with a seniority system this is even being entertained but that’s what those guys signed up for as a possibility. They sure enjoyed screwing over SO’s for Command priority though.

[Berealgetreal]

How did A330 guys screw over SO’s? Did I miss something here?

[Berealgetreal]

Trouble brewing here folks:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/china-to-take-over-hna-group-and-sell-its-airline-assets-report-says.html
Original Report at Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/china-said-to-near-takeover-of-hna-group-as-virus-hits-business


China plans to take over HNA Group and sell its airline assets as coronavirus hits business, report says

How the stock markets around the world have remained relatively unchanged amazes me. Well done to the media and World “Health” Organisation for playing this down. Both have lost all credibility in my book.

Eventually the masses and market won’t be fooled any longer and the sell off will start. You think Corona virus/Covid-19 (15 cases in Aus to date) is affecting forward bookings wait til the ASX halves! Then again we might fix this by opening the borders again which shouldn’t pose a problem right? Lucky the WHO know the incubation period and the R0 is nothing to worry about. A vaccine is just around the corner... ..

Wonder how the factories in China are going or the suppliers manufacturers that completely rely on their goods.

WHO are just a bunch of puppets.

Anyway, shouldn’t worry Virgin as the Wiggy ad is taking the world by storm.

[DUXNUTZ]

How did A330 guys screw over SO’s? Did I miss something here?


At the time most were on the narrow body EBA and cried bloody murder about why SO’s shouldn’t be incorporated into the group list on a like for like basis. Now, on the wide body EBA these folks don’t like the bed they’ve made and want us to share their pain?

Hopefully the mass use of leave fixes the situation or they find somewhere else to fly the bus.

[Berealgetreal]

Ah ok yeah integration, thought it was a wide body eba thing that I might have missed (reminded me of QF787 SO pay..that’s the definition of a shafting).

I hope by some miracle it gets sorted. Yes there have been the occasional boaster but you get that in any segment of the population. There are a lot of good guys there and really nobody wishes to see a colleague go home
and tell their family they have no job.

My gut feeling isn’t good and the information I’ve been watching regarding the virus is pretty chilling.

[B772]

The ASX is accepting orders to buy VAH shares at 2c.

[Mail-man]

Promise to fly ULH and Alan will give you jobs...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8026699/Qantas-threatens-draft-China-pilots-fly-non-stop-Sydney-New-York-London.html

[Capt Fathom]

Surprisingly, the thread starter MAYDAYVA, has not been back since joining on Feb 3rd and starting this thread.

Or has he? Why would someone do that? Some sort of sick enjoyment.

[The Bullwinkle]

Hopefully the mass use of leave fixes the situation or they find somewhere else to fly the bus.

That probably won’t happen given the poor showing in the recent Part-time and LWOP Expression of interest which was to try and avoid redundancies.
Only 46 expressions received and of those, only 12 from A330 pilots.
The company is trying to save jobs in my opinion, but you also have to help yourself.

[-41]

hopefully the rumoured announcements will wind back the alliance flying.

[Paragraph377]

From day one Virgin has been managed by numbnuts with the almighty dollar in their eyes. A poorly managed and poorly constructed business model that has only ever benefited the trough swilling executives at the top. Branson, Godfrey, Sherrard, Borghetti and now Scurrah are the ones who are benefiting from this lemon of a company. Buy in now at $0.002 per share!!!! What a joke. You would make more money from investing in selling cans of dog urine as a skin product! I don’t believe that trainboy Scurrah will be able to do anything other than keep riding the Virgin Titanic to the bottom of the ocean while he continues to earn millions for himself. Who knows, he may also open a wilderness lodge in Tasmania yet! 20 years of stupidity and skating on the brink of receivership.

Maybe Virgin can reintroduce flair and dance around the planes while selling lip balm and the foolish ‘Losing My Virginity’ biographies?

I say let the old old dog die peacefully.

[t_cas]

Paragraph.

I have just had a peruse over some of your posts.

I perceive a highly negative perspective on just about everything you partake in.

I do hope you can see some light for the many who will potentially be the collateral damage to your negative emotion.

Have a great day.

[wheels_down]

hopefully the rumoured announcements will wind back the alliance flying.

Not in the near future the current contract has a few years to run.

But it it wouldn’t be the first time they walked around from a contract early whilst coming to other arrangements whilst still paying Alliance!

In other news looks like the ATR storage has now ended.

[AerialPerspective]

Paragraph.

I have just had a peruse over some of your posts.

I perceive a highly negative perspective on just about everything you partake in.

I do hope you can see some light for the many who will potentially be the collateral damage to your negative emotion.

Have a great day.
Nevertheless he is absolutely correct.
The company is a bloody joke. Could not run a tart shop as the old saying goes.
Years of losses and stupid decisions, hounding and weeding out anyone with any knowledge of the industry or talent and a factory for weasel words and BS.
The only thing that's tragic is the potential loss of jobs if it goes under but those who were the architect will skip off to their next disaster and never pay the price.
When the best defense someone can come up with after now nearly a decade of uncontrolled spending and continual losses with no end in sight, some of it on projects that are dropped half way through, is that it is 'net cash-flow positive' then it's just pathetic.
If they wanted the company to work better and be run better, they should turn it upside down and give it a shake... let the people at the bottom run the thing and those at the top can check people in and load the aeroplanes... oh wait, no, that wouldn't work because no one would ever get checked in and no aeroplane would ever get loaded... or they'd contract the check in, etc. out to Alliance or someone.
I hoped the new guy could sort it out but I fear it's just more of the same...

[AerialPerspective]

I just don’t understand why they don’t just put the things back on Domestic where they originally started, and send the corresponding 737s to the Pussycat.

Poor old Tiger, after all these years nobody still gives two ****s about it. I reckon if VA was given free Tiger painted 737s from Boeing for Christmas they still wouldn’t send them to Tiger.

There is more chance of Virgin leasing 737s to Qantas then going to Tiger!
'than' going to Tiger unless you meant them going there after?

[ShandywithSugar]

Are the China guys emailing offering to fly the A330 for less?.

[AerialPerspective]

Reverse date of joining for losing ones position. Now a pay cut. If true, they are drinking cool aid in Virgin head office. A mess created by poor management and ego. Once again the pointy end staff pays the price, whilst others walk away with an obscene amount of money or remain in their ivory chairs in their ivory tower, protecting their position. What a horrible industry.
Or get awarded an AO in Australia Day honors.

[wheels_down]

I don’t think PS was ever going to be anyone’s favorite. Regardless of who they put in the job or where they came from they are all given the same plate of financial ruin. They can only all so the same, ie cut cost and lean it out. That usually has a low fanbase. Mid to late this decade until you really come out the other end.

There are some very good world class customer facing corporates in this country that they could learn off. Woolworths is one. Coles another. It’s a customer and team culture without the ego driven narrow minded management.

They probably need to move their office to Melbourne or Sydney if they want any hope of securing decent talent. Especially on the digital front.

[Buster Hyman]

They probably need to move their office to Melbourne or Sydney if they want any hope of securing decent talent.
Interesting point. Was offered an interview when AN folded but moving to BNE wasn't on my radar. Without making any assumptions about those there now, I was told it was absolute chaos in the early noughties.

[wheels_down]

Target recently moved their office to Melbourne in an effort to secure better Talent. Woolworths even gone to the length of opening a second Sydney office this time in the city to secure high end talent. They moved all Digital to Pyrmont to secure global individuals. Results speak for themselves.

Time to dump the Village and move down south. Extra costs in moving will be pulled back by securing some top people making better decisions.

[Green.Dot]

An article from yesteryear to make your blood boil about the muppet who “transformed” it all...

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/what-it-takes-to-get-paid-277m-virgin-australias-john-borghetti-says-hes-tried-really-hard/news-story/30058673a87f20489a13fddb1e8a770a

[Paragraph377]

The Virgin Blue business concept was, in theory, a good idea. Compass 1 and 2 had tried it but the timing simply wasn’t right. Australia wasn’t ready. An all 737 fleet based on an operating model like Southwest was the intention. And true, Virgin Blue started out that way. But executive greed took over and the reality was that the Pied Piper Branson and his cohorts in Fortitude Valley wanted to float the company after a couple of years, make many many millions for themselves and then swan dance the heck out of there with all of those shiny millions. DGAF about whatever eventuates. Amongst many mistakes they started VARA at the wrong time (end of the mining boom), threw money at Alliance, bought Skywest, bought Tiger, bought Embraers, multiple fuel hedging screwups, bought some desert thrashed EK 330’s, had multiple aircraft types (Peter Abel’s and the death of Ansett ring a bell?), PAC Blue, Virgin New Zealand and Virgin also started a half arsed semi business class, jerked themselves into a stupor over ‘game changing’, and had/have on their books more ‘specialists’ than the United Stars medical profession combined. Do I need to continue?

I’m sorry if this comes across all negative. I seriously don’t want to see any employee out of a job. But if it happens, it’s because of the muppets who have mismanaged the airline for the past 2 decades. The company is not geared up to withstand a ‘perfect storm’ of financial challenges, they never have been and I would say never will be.

[Hoosten]

An all 737 fleet based on an operating model like Southwest was the intention. And true, Virgin Blue started out that way.

Anybody who's flown Southwest would know if it was Virginblues intention to mimic them, they failed dismally. In the end I don't think any Australian airline would have the gumption to 'give' the passenger things like civil legroom, included luggage and the like. In the end they fell into the trap of charging for everything. Now they are in 'no mans land.' Now they are 'all hat, no cattle'

Pity, they have decent people at the coalface, constrained by inferior infrastructure set up by incompetents. The Village Idiots are something to behold, I'm told.

[t_cas]

Pity, they have decent people at the coalface, constrained by inferior infrastructure set up by incompetents. The Village Idiots are something to behold, I'm told.

Bold statement based on others perception.

[Berealgetreal]

You would be hard pressed to find people that would argue with many of the above statements. Having said that it, most if not all has happened (past) and there is very little we can do about it.

What matters is what is happening right now and in the future or near future. This Corona virus or Covid-19 is far from under control. WHO might as well be renamed Goldman Sachs and the our government is starting to buckle to pressure. Chinese year 11/12 students are on their way in and universities will follow shortly. You’re talking tens maybe a hundred thousand people here and BIG $.

Anyone that thinks the A330 will be the only one to feel the effects might get a nasty surprise. Food for thought.

At the risk of being unpopular or flamed I’d be thinking a how to protect my family from the worst case and b what can I do workwise to make sure I have a job at the end of it (if there is an end).

Good luck. (I hope I’m proved wrong and look silly ASAP!).

[Goat Whisperer]

The VA CEO has made it clear that the hit to the business is not just to the A330 operation. Business travel is down, and the now absent Chinese tourists flew plenty of domestic sectors, predominantly on 737s.

If VA pull the trigger on forced A330 pilot redundancies it will destroy trust among all the various pilot groups, not just the A330.

At risk of skirting Godwin's Law... "First they came for the A330 pilots, but I said nothing as I was not an A330 pilot..."

[Paragraph377]

The CEO and Board will do whatever it takes to make sure their rice bowls are protected. If you think they could give a crap about pilot unemployment, or anybody becoming unemployed, you are living in the third dimension. It’s all about the shareholder, CEO and Board. Obscene salaries and bonuses must, and will come first. All these fluffy photos of staff smiling with Scurrah add no longevity to a person’s career. If the time comes for the toe cutter to bone his staff, he will do it and he will do it without blinking an eye.

[Colonel_Klink]

The CEO and Board will do whatever it takes to make sure their rice bowls are protected. If you think they could give a crap about pilot unemployment, or anybody becoming unemployed, you are living in the third dimension.

And this is why pilots should be somewhat concerned. The CEO has just made 750 odd positions redundant in head office - I doubt he will hesitate in making pilots redundant if need be. In the pilot’s favour - making a pilot redundant is a very expensive exercise. And most VA pilots will know what happened during the GFC...The Company moved too many pilots off the 737, and when the economy picked up, they were left short of flight crew. You’d think they’d not make the same mistake twice. The only issue is they will be bleeding cash in the meantime.....

Strong rumour that NZ will be losing some aircraft and those will head over to TT to accelerate fleet replacement there. You’d have to also think that domestic capacity reductions will be announced at the half year results.

[Double_Clutch]

I think you may find the mid year results will be released on the 26th Feb

[PoppaJo]

Domestic Capacity is not being cut too heavy from my info, just capacity and schedule being repositioned more productively. The other guys do a better job of seasonal scheduling, Virgin runs to one schedule.

You will find less Tiger flights departing close or on top of Virgin flights. In the past they have sent in Tiger alongside Virgin routes, but they had the flights departing at the same time, rendering both loss making. The idea is to have Tiger depart at the undesirable times that people still pay for, and the Virgin flight commands the price schedule premium. Backpackers don’t care about departing Cairns to Sydney at business hours, send them back at 8pm or 6am.

[goodonyamate]

I think everyone in every airline is worried about employment at the moment 😢 fingers crossed everything works out for all of you

[MACH6]

The Australian government have updated their advice for Japan. Unfortunately, this will impact the upcoming Haneda flights. Another nail in the coffin for the A330 operation?

[RickNRoll]

Virgin Australia isn't going anywhere. They're cashflow positive. They can service their debts. Cashflow is more important than profit. They're both important - but cashflow rules. They have free cash. So they're not going anywhere. They're holding back capital spend and 'clearing the decks'. They're making a number of strategic decisions that will reshape the carrier - and the carrier will be a different one within the next 12 months - but it will still be here none-the-less. It will be fine. The market can support both.

But... there may be less demand for pilots with any fleet adjustments they make.

EBIT is stil trending in the right direction...
A duopoly always helps. There won't be a repeat of Ansett/Virgin because there is no third carrier lurking out there to steal market share from them. Cashflow will continue to be good and that keeps the banks happy. That's just due to luck, though.

[RickNRoll]

An article from yesteryear to make your blood boil about the muppet who “transformed” it all...

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/what-it-takes-to-get-paid-277m-virgin-australias-john-borghetti-says-hes-tried-really-hard/news-story/30058673a87f20489a13fddb1e8a770a
“I’d like to be remembered as someone who really tried hard,” said Borghetti in an exclusive interview on board Virgin’s brand new $221 million A330.

“If you’ve done the best you can and failed, I’d rather do that than be someone who succeeded and didn’t do their best.

“I always say to my management team you never want to die wondering and we all make mistakes. I make them every day.”

About as good an admission of failure as you'll get from any CEO.

[Buster Hyman]

Chinese year 11/12 students are on their way in and universities will follow shortly. You’re talking tens maybe a hundred thousand people here and BIG $.

Big $$$ indeed. The Universities are considering charter flights to get the students back!

Strong rumour that NZ will be losing some aircraft and those will head over to TT to accelerate fleet replacement there.
By sending A320's to TT???:confused:

[wishiwasupthere]

I read that as VANZ.

[Buster Hyman]

I read that as VANZ.
Ahhh...that makes more sense.

[Green.Dot]

The dominoes are starting to fall 😢

[kjvmw]

Reading the financial results wouldn't suggest all doom and gloom.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=VAH&timeframe=D&period=M6

[Double_Clutch]

Reading the financial results wouldn't suggest all doom and gloom.


I read it differently - Maybe my level 6 English is not up to scratch?

[Banana_man]

This thread title should be changed to ‘TT pilots worried about employment in 2021’

I hope all works out for our comrades at Tiger

[Paragraph377]

Reading the financial results wouldn't suggest all doom and gloom.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=VAH&timeframe=D&period=M6

$99m loss, after all the changes he has already introduced? And keeping in mind this is an airline that is the second half of a duopoly!
Godfrey, Borghetti, Scurrah - wow, all they have achieved in 20 years is a big fat salary and bonuses for themselves while the airline STILL continues to lose money.

A share high of $2.27 on Feb 23, 2007 down to $0.12 on Feb 26 2020. Yep, what an amazingly lame effort by the overpaid trough swillers. A vote of no confidence in the executive and the pathetic Board should be considered.

[burned_out]

Hey come join the redundancy club guys.... life's a beach in Tigerair!

Scurrah sure knows how to run the meat grinder, now just gotta see if he realises he's running an airline!

To late to call pilots back for a job when you need to expand again.... douche

[Dewa_Gede_70]

Hey come join the redundancy club guys.... life's a beach in Tigerair!

Scurrah sure knows how to run the meat grinder, now just gotta see if he realises he's running an airline!

To late to call pilots back for a job when you need to expand again.... douche



A330 crew won’t be too far behind 🤔😬

[Ragnor]

Are the still persisting with the ATR experiment? Surely that operation is loosing a lot of cash. Or they will have 5 TT 737 and 5 ATRs that’s even a bigger mess I would think.

[under the radar 55]

They have now admitted it "VIRGIN AUSTRALIA SAYS PILOT REDUNDANCIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER FLEET CUTS" this is sad

[under the radar 55]

https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-virgin-australia-ceo-says-satisfie/brief-virgin-australia-ceo-says-satisfied-with-forward-bookings-for-brisbane-tokyo-route-starting-in-march-idUSL4N2AQ066

[Summer Lovin]

The redundancies are supposed to be Widebody reverse date of joining, which includes the 777. That can only mean they’ll lose all the 777 second officers.

[Paragraph377]

Keep the pilots. Get rid of those titled ‘specialists’, useless surplus management, legacy managers/supervisors who have sucked oxygen for the past 20 years, useless HR, trainers and finance clowns, marketing idiots and especially the majority of the outdated useless safety staff who have done nothing for years.

Fuhrer Scurrah could use this as an opportunity to simply get rid of the crap....finally.

[The Baron]

Don"t be too sure it will be the 2nd officers walking the plank. The company interpretation could well be fleet specific. When the 330s go, so will the crews if they can't get a spot in the other fleets. They will argue in court that the cost of all the training involved would be too much for the wreck to sustain. I am sure the unions have got it all under control......

[Max123]

Any truth to the rumours VANZ are loosing two aircraft to Tiger?

[WillieTheWimp]

Any truth to the rumours VANZ are loosing two aircraft to Tiger?

Yes. That is what the company has said. However I think it was worded VAI short haul. Whatever that means.

[Double_Clutch]

Any truth to the rumours VANZ are loosing two aircraft to Tiger?

Fairly confident that it was all covered in the financials released yesterday

[Berealgetreal]

Full document has some interesting stuff in it. Airport fees 2.5 times CPI rise was one.

Under JB each fleet/entity profit and loss was shown this one doesn’t show that sort of detail.

[WillieTheWimp]

Full document has some interesting stuff in it. Airport fees 2.5 times CPI rise was one.

Under JB each fleet/entity profit and loss was shown this one doesn’t show that sort of detail.

Did you check the asx presentation. Not detailed for each but does have some numbers for domestic, international and TT
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200226/pdf/44fg7xd2j6xdf0.pdf

[Servo]

Full document has some interesting stuff in it. Airport fees 2.5 times CPI rise was one.

Under JB each fleet/entity profit and loss was shown this one doesn’t show that sort of detail.

Probably because it will not "support" Scurrah's agenda.......................

[PammyAnderson]

Don"t be too sure it will be the 2nd officers walking the plank. The company interpretation could well be fleet specific. When the 330s go, so will the crews if they can't get a spot in the other fleets. They will argue in court that the cost of all the training involved would be too much for the wreck to sustain. I am sure the unions have got it all under control......


Don't so sure it "won't" be the SOs. EBA refers specially to redundancies being wide body group. (Not fleet specific like the narrow body agreement). Unfortunately the cost argument doesn't stack up as it is way cheaper (and easy to prove) to retrain them than making crew with 10-19 years service redundant.

[The Baron]

You are forgetting about the clause that refers to major changes in the business. That little gem means they can do whatever they like that is in the "best interests" of the business. All they are required to do is "consult". It would be naive to think they won't use it. What has worried me over the years is the very small number of people who have read and understood the implications of clauses in both narrow and widebody EBAs. Too late to query them now.

[PammyAnderson]

Not forgetting it at all, and I am sure they will try it on. But unlike the narrow EBA it is NOT fleet specific and the biggest argument for not following an EBA is the cost hit. With over a billion in Cash reserves and easily able to prove it is cheaper to make redundant an SO and retrain the airbus crew rather than make redundancy at a cost of 100-200K per pilot, they won't have a great argument in court for making illegal redundancies. I think you will find both unions will support that argument also. So let's hope for the SOs sake none of it happens at all.

[wheels_down]

The numbers are quite wide.

Assuming majority of Airbus crew have 9+ years service. That’s about a 120+ payout for the left seat and 80k for the right seat.

Looking at SO with an average of 3 years service. They would struggle to get 10k.

It’s the same over at Tiger really. The cost of payouts if they combed down the seniority list pale in comparison should they make the entire Airbus crew redundant considering there is a large shift in overall company service pre and post 737 fleet (ie Tiger Mark 1 (Airbus) and 2 (Airbus/Boeing)

Its all about cost with PS so probably whatever works out cheaper

[Dewa_Gede_70]

It’s confirmed...Redundancy’s if any will be via the WB GDOJ and not fleet specific.

[Goat Whisperer]

It’s confirmed...Redundancy’s if any will be via the WB GDOJ and not fleet specific.

Confirmed from where, Dewa?

[JoeTripodi]

Surely the pilots of least use and experience, the cadets, should be shown the door first.
There’s a fresh batch about to start training on the ATR.

[Obie]

So, wot's a WBGDOJ thingy to us plebs?

[VH-ABC]

Wide body group date of joining... seniority list for the 330/777 crew.

[one dollar short]

Surely the pilots of least use and experience, the cadets, should be shown the door first.
There’s a fresh batch about to start training on the ATR.

I’m not certain but I’m pretty sure the majority of them go to the 777 with a handful (top 2) going to the Atr. At least I think that’s been the case with the last few courses and have reason to believe it’s the same with the last batch.

[AerialPerspective]

Keep the pilots. Get rid of those titled ‘specialists’, useless surplus management, legacy managers/supervisors who have sucked oxygen for the past 20 years, useless HR, trainers and finance clowns, marketing idiots and especially the majority of the outdated useless safety staff who have done nothing for years.

Fuhrer Scurrah could use this as an opportunity to simply get rid of the crap....finally.

Pretty good summation... this company has been inhibited for too long with too much flotsam and jetsam that just mills around, uses weasel words and generally does nothing but inhibit the actual operation. The place needs a corporate laxative or a corporate enema to clean out all the s-it... the people that call meetings to determine whether someone's lipstick shade is acceptable while the place is falling apart.
If not, change the name to Dunning-Kruger Airlines. At least it will be accurate.

[lucille]

With Chinese airlines having dispensed with most (all?) their expat pilots and ceasing recruiting there could not be a worse time to be an unemployed airline pilot. In the space of 2 months the rug has been pulled under the feet of the profession. There is no Plan B anymore.

Only thing left is to go sit on the beach and wait out this coronavirus panic attack. The panic will end, people will start flying in droves again and the Chinese airlines will be in a recruiting frenzy because a substantial number of their laid off pilots will not return. Jobs in China are high paying only because they are horrible. A 330 type rating will be very useful and experienced F/Os will get DEC positions.

I would hope that at the very least, the industry will give all the pilots made redundant one last recurrent which will at least make them employable for the following six months.

[Goat Whisperer]

A 330 type rating will be very useful and experienced F/Os will get DEC positions.


I'll have whatever Lucille is smoking!

Agreed, this is a terrible time to be dumped onto the global pilot job market.

There are alternatives to redundancy too, and if the powers that be are able to avoid forced redundancy this would give a lot of goodwill going forward. I'd easily accept a pay freeze or other uncomfortable measure if it meant none of my colleagues are removed from the business. I include 1834 pilots on the GDOJ list.

Edit: 1825.

[lucille]

I'll have whatever Lucille is smoking!

.

Before the Coronavirus thing, the Gulags in China were offering DEC positions to suitably experienced F/Os. I would expect that when the panic eventually subsides that this happy state will return as they ramp up operations again.

[Berealgetreal]

Coronavirus panic attack? It’s not going away and if the government don’t get real tough on borders we might do another China/Europe and watch the parked jets then.


What will be interesting is when China wants to crank up the flying again Some pilots will go back, some will have found jobs elsewhere and some will say no thanks (given the methods used). Sure they fall out of a tree but it might not be as easy given how quickly they were dropped.

[Servo]

The only thing is, when this was proposed on the VPF forum with a poll, it was a resounding NO vote to help out by the VA narrow body pilots. They feel they are immune to any reductions in fleet or flying. Maybe when it gets a bit closer to affecting them they will reconsider.

There is a Virgin Pilot Forum? Didnt know it existed. Thought it shut down ages ago.

Would the WB fleet do the same fore the NB fleet?

Pity it has come to this........... or worse :(

[TimmyTee]

The only thing is, when this was proposed on the VPF forum with a poll, it was a resounding NO vote to help out by the VA narrow body pilots. They feel they are immune to any reductions in fleet or flying. Maybe when it gets a bit closer to affecting them they will reconsider.

Wasnt there someone on here last week explaining that it would efficteively mean 737 would be giving some of their income to the 330 pilots, with no reduction in big monthly hours, despite the 330 pilots still earning more when on 80% part time?
Surely that’s not right?

[non_state_actor]

The only thing is, when this was proposed on the VPF forum with a poll, it was a resounding NO vote to help out by the VA narrow body pilots. They feel they are immune to any reductions in fleet or flying. Maybe when it gets a bit closer to affecting them they will reconsider.

Except that it can never be reciprocated as there just aren't enough WB pilots to subsidise the 737s if the situation was reversed and the 737 was in trouble.
Those who went onto the widebody went in with the full knowledge that it may not work. Some people didn't take it because they didn't want to take the risk. You can't take the risk then expect a bailout because the cards haven't fallen your way.

Nothing against the sentiment except that it just doesn't work in reality and the pay differential between the two is significant.

[The Bullwinkle]

The only thing is, when this was proposed on the VPF forum with a poll, it was a resounding NO vote to help out by the VA narrow body pilots. They feel they are immune to any reductions in fleet or flying. Maybe when it gets a bit closer to affecting them they will reconsider.
As I mentioned earlier, when the EOI for LWOP and PT options was offered to try and avoid redundancies, only 46 submissions were received and of those, only 12 from the A330 Pilots which would suggest to me that the narrow body guys are quite willing to help out, even more so than the wide body guys themselves.
Now, tell me more about this VPF forum..........:)

[Low Pass]

Hearing secondhand that some junior Tiger airbus FOs been made redundant over the last few days?. So much for the Consultation.

[Paragraph377]

Maybe they company will do what if did to ground crew some years ago and get I.T to do a big sweep of everyone’s email accounts and punt those who have viewing, downloading, sharing or accessing porn? That’s one way to get rid of people without paying a redundancy, sack them for breach of the code of conduct. It was a gutless move by a company who supposedly puts its people above everything else.

[vee1-rotate]

Maybe they company will do what if did to ground crew some years ago and get I.T to do a big sweep of everyone’s email accounts and punt those who have viewing, downloading, sharing or accessing porn? That’s one way to get rid of people without paying a redundancy, sack them for breach of the code of conduct. It was a gutless move by a company who supposedly puts its people above everything else.

Gutless is an understatement and doesn't surprise me having been an ex-employee, however, who in the hell is downloading or watching porn at work? Seems like there's bigger issues here if that's how you spend your time in between turns.

[John Citizen]

Virus may doom failing airlines (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/virus-may-doom-failing-airlines-ba-owner/news-story/5d7ae73e13a72c8ddf47270f2b72a486)

[wheels_down]

That MAX order is probably going to be pushed back multiple years seeing Tiger won’t be needing the swap outs now.

Part of a widebody deal with Mr Boeing will likely result in a deferral of the MAX order until mid this decade.

The fleet is young enough as it is.

[Goat Whisperer]

That MAX order is probably going to be pushed back multiple years seeing Tiger won’t be needing the swap outs now.

Part of a widebody deal with Mr Boeing will likely result in a deferral of the MAX order until mid this decade.

The fleet is young enough as it is

True, and the Max sim that arrives in 3 or 4 months will be an unusually good profit generator for at least a couple of years, assuming Boeing's sim training recommendation is accepted.

There is provision in at least 3 VA Group pilot EBAs to preserve redundant pilots' spot on the seniority list for up to 5 years.

[coaldemon]

You mean the MAX 10 simulator for the MAX variant that has never been certified. Yes that will be an interesting sale to CASA to get that rolling as a profit generator. As for the seniority issues that will be a mess for years it seems. Also the Widebody order should be an interesting one. The PDP finance will need to be....Flexible...

[Green.Dot]

The only positive I see in all this is that Scurrah has taken drastic action probably when needed. Borghetti handed him a complete lemon of a company and something had to be done. Doesn’t make it easier for guys and fields at TT losing their jobs at the coal face but if they are offered LWOP or the likes hopefully they can come straight back when things go again.

[Goat Whisperer]

Coaldemon

The sim will arrive as a 737 Max 8, and once VA has Max 10 airframes the -8 software will be replaced by -10. A couple of extra overhead panel light will be added. Most external customers want -8.

[Bumble_Pilot]

That MAX order is probably going to be pushed back multiple years seeing Tiger won’t be needing the swap outs now.

Part of a widebody deal with Mr Boeing will likely result in a deferral of the MAX order until mid this decade.

The fleet is young enough as it is.

I have heard that tiger will go back to their current fleet size when the max arrives. Which should theoretically mean everyone should be offered their jobs back.

[Derfred]

I have heard that tiger will go back to their current fleet size when the max arrives. Which should theoretically mean everyone should be offered their jobs back.

Wow, I’m sure that’s comforting news to those with a family and mortgage fearing or about to experience an impending job loss.

[Paragraph377]

IATA are now predicting combined airline losses of up to $46b or more. It would seem that IL Deuce timed his exit perfectly, just as with Dixon when he departed QF. And the timing couldn’t be worse for Scurrah the train driver, having inherited a money losing lemon and then the Coronavirus landing in his lap. But don’t worry, I’m sure the Village Idiots and the organisations team of ‘specialists’ will save the day!

The outbreak is hitting other aspects of the industry such as airports, aviation fuel availability (which is imported by ships remember), freight, domestic tourism and the list goes on. There is very little sun on the horizon at the moment as the dark clouds continue to gather. But if you are a Virgin Board member of Executive Manager there is no need for panic - your unjustifiable salaries and bonuses are safe. No LWOP, unemployment of paycut for you.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Well VA is in a cluster **** situation right now with the share priced tanked at ten cents. This is the lowest it has ever been. Fifteen cents during GFC. Complete wipeout in value (and a good time to buy). Being highly-leveraged and exposed to a range of uncontrollables - VA is in a serious world of pain right now...

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/609x205/screen_shot_2020_03_03_at_4_22_19_pm_254768adfb23c80765c6697 6e0dea2e6db75f367.png
Share price history since float @ $1.94

[Paragraph377]

Well VA is in a cluster **** situation right now with the share priced tanked at ten cents. This is the lowest it has ever been. Fifteen cents during GFC. Complete wipeout in value (and a good time to buy).

No offence, but ‘good time to buy’?? At $0.10 per share they may go up $0.02 one day, if a miracle occurred! Years of pathetic management and a share price that since it was floated has pretty much dropped by100% in value would indicate it is a dud investment. It’s a shame, no doubt about it, but a reality. The airline has done well to survive this long considering the type of decision making that has gone on for two decades behind mostly closed doors....Best of luck to the Pilot Group.

[Ollie Onion]

I wouldn’t be so concerned with people getting jobs back when the turnaround comes, I would be more concerned if there will be a company to save. Virgin are in a world of hurt at the moment and it is about to get worse with a global recession.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

No offence, but ‘good time to buy’?? At $0.10 per share they may go up $0.02 one day

No offence taken. During the GFC the price recovered within a year from 0.15 to 0.71. I am going to hedge my bets that the price recovers. They're doing the things they need to do in order to improve the financials. What is good is ASK's is stagnant in the DOM market and VA are reducing ASK's which will drive up unit revenue whilst cASK will reduce. The virus will pass. They'll recover. So long as they have enough operating cash flow to keep going (not including the unrestricted cash or further borrowing they may do). Debt remains very cheap.

[Stickshift3000]

This is the lowest it has ever been. Fifteen cents during GFC. Complete wipeout in value (and a good time to buy)

There are always two future share prices: higher or lower than current price.
Only if you believe the share price will increase in future would it be a good time to buy...

[DUXNUTZ]

No offence taken. During the GFC the price recovered within a year from 0.15 to 0.71. I am going to hedge my bets that the price recovers. They're doing the things they need to do in order to improve the financials. What is good is ASK's is stagnant in the DOM market and VA are reducing ASK's which will drive up unit revenue whilst cASK will reduce. The virus will pass. They'll recover. So long as they have enough operating cash flow to keep going (not including the unrestricted cash or further borrowing they may do). Debt remains very cheap.


Next financial results for Jan - June gonna be even worse.

[Arthur D]

How strong is their balance sheet?

redundancies
Grounded aircraft
route withdrawls
latent capacity

I would suggest there is a distinct possibility they will need to go looking for cash to prop up the operation. Unlikely this will come from existing shareholders.

Meanwhile, as they withdraw, Qantas gains a leg up with every vacated route.

Sound familiar?

I would rather try my odds at the Casino than VA shares

Looking more and more like Ansett every day I’m afraid.

[who_cares]

I’d definitely cover my bet by buying QF shares also. Wish I’d bought in 2008, six months later Va shares had tripled and QF shares doubled.

[ABP]

Arthur D, don't be afraid. Ansett lost $2,300,000 a day in today's rates during its last year or two of operations. That's neatly $850,000,000 a year.

VA has lost $100,000,000 this last six months at a statutory level (incorporating restructuring and one off costs), with an underlying profit of $19,000,000.

VA is on a ruthless restructure which is required and will not be profitable until 2022 at least. With revenue healthy and having increased yearly, they are dealing with their cost base now. I'm sure they'll get there, once the Coronavirus is dealt with.

There have been many silly mistakes written for all to see in their reports such as continuing to pay for debt in US dollars, poor fuel hedging, millions spent on ATR and E190 leases that are no longer being operated etc...

Additionally paying one of the World's most expensive lease agreements for A330s.

All these issues aren't forever and Paul Scurrah is focusing on profit, unlike previous management it would seem.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

redundancies
Grounded aircraft
route withdrawls
latent capacity

All good things that will reduce cost, improve unit revenue and yield. Exactly what they need to do. VA needs to right-size the business and focus on profitable markets - not just compete with Qantas. Just because Qantas operates into a market, it does not mean it is lucrative. It may be marginally profitable at best. VA is generating cash. They can borrow on the market if need be. I wouldn't compare VA and Ansett. Market and business dynamics are very different. Qantas certainly does not want VA to fail. Each has its share of the profit pool in the domestic market. It is harmonious. Whislt JB spent money to lift VA to QF 'standards' - PS is now driving large-scale cost reductions, a focus on profitability, and wants to return VA culturally to be more aligned to its 'roots'. If they can keep generating operating cash - they'll get through this a leaner and more effective business.

[domaus]

Does everyone realise that for the last 5 years QF have been selling assets such as catering and airport terminals? The airport terminals generated over 1 Billion in sales alone. Melbourne sold last year for just under $355 million for example. This has been reported to fund Project Sunrise and aircraft purchases. But they can't sell assets forever. Clever of Joyce to do so, to leave on good terms.

[Mr Google Head]

I’d definitely cover my bet by buying QF shares also. Wish I’d bought in 2008, six months later Va shares had tripled and QF shares doubled.

Hmmmm buying 2 separate airline stocks I don’t think I’ll be coming to you for investment advice 😂😂😂🤪🤪

[who_cares]

Hmmmm buying 2 separate airline stocks I don’t think I’ll be coming to you for investment advice 😂😂😂🤪🤪
If VA was to go under(not saying they will), I’d bet that QF shares would sky rocket.

[AerialPerspective]

No offence, but ‘good time to buy’?? At $0.10 per share they may go up $0.02 one day, if a miracle occurred! Years of pathetic management and a share price that since it was floated has pretty much dropped by100% in value would indicate it is a dud investment. It’s a shame, no doubt about it, but a reality. The airline has done well to survive this long considering the type of decision making that has gone on for two decades behind mostly closed doors....Best of luck to the Pilot Group.

Largely the only reason it's survived despite the crap management has been the billions tipped in by it's gullible investors.

[B772]

who cares: Your a rocket scientist !.

All jokes aside.
This is the performance of Aust airline stocks. This excludes any dividends that may have been paid.

Alliance 1 Yr -12% 3 Yrs +226% 5 Yrs +370%
Qantas 1 Yr - 9% 3 Yrs + 38% 5 Yrs + 79%
Rex 1 Yr -33% 3 Yrs + 10% 5 Yrs - 1%
Virgin 1 Yr -46% 3 Yrs - 45% 5 Yrs - 78%

Anyone who is still holding VA shares from the float in 2003 at $2.25 per share should have their head read. In early 2005 a shareholder Chris Corrigan of Patricks was not happy with the direction of Virgin and mounted a takeover to become the largest shareholder with only 62% of the company. Branson would not budge and retained 25% ownership. In 2006 Toll purchased Patricks and attempted to sell the 62% holding. They could not find a buyer. If Branson and other minority shareholders owning 13% had sold to Corrigan of Patricks Virgin Australia would not be in the spiral dive they are today and could have been a more formidable competitor to Qantas . As it is Virgin does not meet the listing rules if it were to be listed on the ASX today.

[AerialPerspective]

Does everyone realise that for the last 5 years QF have been selling assets such as catering and airport terminals? The airport terminals generated over 1 Billion in sales alone. Melbourne sold last year for just under $355 million for example. This has been reported to fund Project Sunrise and aircraft purchases. But they can't sell assets forever. Clever of Joyce to do so, to leave on good terms.

The leases were going to end anyway and it was a smart move to sell them back to the airports early and capitalise on their greed, instead of waiting until later and getting nothing for them.

Catering was a sad departure but the economies of scale with DNATA owning hundreds of catering centres and bulk purchasing ability was not sustainable compared to Qantas with 3-6 centres and not benefiting from the same economies of scale. Yes, they could have done some sort of joint procurement with One World but I'd say most of it's airline partners don't operate catering centres anyway.

The sales are shown separately on the balance sheet also and they don't reflect the underlying profitability of the company which would still be there regardless.

[Paragraph377]

who cares: Your a rocket scientist !.

All jokes aside.
This is the performance of Aust airline stocks. This excludes any dividends that may have been paid.

Alliance 1 Yr -12% 3 Yrs +226% 5 Yrs +370%
Qantas 1 Yr - 9% 3 Yrs + 38% 5 Yrs + 79%
Rex 1 Yr -33% 3 Yrs + 10% 5 Yrs - 1%
Virgin 1 Yr -46% 3 Yrs - 45% 5 Yrs - 78%

Anyone who is still holding VA shares from the float in 2003 at $2.25 per share should have their head read. In early 2005 a shareholder Chris Corrigan of Patricks was not happy with the direction of Virgin and mounted a takeover to become the largest shareholder with only 62% of the company. Branson would not budge and retained 25% ownership. In 2006 Toll purchased Patricks and attempted to sell the 62% holding. They could not find a buyer. If Branson and other minority shareholders owning 13% had sold to Corrigan of Patricks Virgin Australia would not be in the spiral dive they are today and could have been a more formidable competitor to Qantas . As it is Virgin does not meet the listing rules if it were to be listed on the ASX today.

Very good post. After Ansett collapsed and Virgin Blue floated itself on the stock exchange Branson made a whopping $960m in total. Not bad for someone who ‘wanted to save the Australian public from the horrible duopoly of QF and AN’. Then, after he sold his majority stake he still pocketed $50k per year per aircraft tail for VB using the Virgin logo. That’s why they changed the design and name eventually. Of course he kept a couple of percent invested ‘to show he had faith in the airline’. What a crock. The second biggest winner from the float was Rob Sherrard who pocketed close to $100m once he sold his shares. Not bad for the former bankrupt from Sherrard Aviation. Godfrey waited too long and as the share price dropped he only made around $60m. Godfreys other mates like Bruce Highfield (head of HR) and some others also made several million from the float. The whole concept was to make a select handful of people very very rich while the rest of the workforce earned ****e money because they were blindly following the pied piper Branson who is nothing more than a cluey marketer. They did a good con job, I know of several pilots who borrowed between $50k to $100k and purchased at the list price because they were convinced the airline would be a great investment and provide a robust return. Hmmmm, didn’t quite work out that way unless you were ‘gifted’ all of your shares for free such as what happened with Branson, Sherrard, Godfrey and ‘mates’. Staff were none the wiser, some even still none the wiser today, dedicating their waking moments to working for an airline which paid them peanuts and treated them with contempt behind the scenes. The place was, is and always will be an act of smoke and mirrors. The ultimate glitter coated turd.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Margin lending. Such a poor investment strategy. People who do this are really misinformed.

but the economies of scale with DNATA owning hundreds of catering centres
And Gate Gourmet as another competitor. The cost base for GG and Dnata has always been lower than QF, and its legacy awards. QF was losing airline catering business. Too expensive. They had scale once. But sold off centre by centre. Dnata has an agenda to 'rule the world'. QF had no hope. QF would have received a very handsome sum for the SYD and MEL facilities.

Lufthansa are also looking to exist LSG and airline catering. Airlines need to get out of it. Focus on the core business for flying aeroplanes and running loyalty programs.

[Cloud Cutter]

Margin lending. Such a poor investment strategy. People who do this are really misinformed.

Sweeping generalisations. Such a poor debating strategy.

Have you ever used debt to finance the purchase of real property? Buying shares on margin is no different in principle. The key to success on both counts is appropriate risk management.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Not really. Margin loans for shares are much riskier than property. Especially if they were purchasing a single stock, and in particular, an airline stock, as indicated above. Having debt secured against the value of the shares which can fluctuate daily leading to a host of issues that do not exist with property. Hit a downturn and you're forced to sell your stocks at a loss or funnel more cash to the lender. And they're also expensive. I am sorry, but there is a difference between the two. Borrowing to buy shares isn't good advice and not worth the risks for the general person.

Back on topic now..

[CamelSquadron]

[font="arial"]
And Gate Gourmet as another competitor. The cost base for GG and Dnata has always been lower than QF, and its legacy awards. QF was losing airline catering business. Too expensive. They had scale once. But sold off centre by centre. Dnata has an agenda to 'rule the world'. QF had no hope. QF would have received a very handsome sum for the SYD and MEL facilities.


QF was forced to close its Adelaide catering facility. The Airport would not renew the lease and intends to demolish the building.

[Paragraph377]

QF was forced to close its Adelaide catering facility. The Airport would not renew the lease and intends to demolish the building.
Airport property is a lisense to print money. It’s certainly the cheaper alternative these days to have a third party caterer working from an off-airport site donthe catering and cleaning, depending on location of course. And T-Vasis is correct - margin loans for purchasing shares is crazy, unless you are an inside trader. Then again, some people have been burned brutally by property too, buying during the mining peak in places like Karatha, Emerald, Moranbah and so the list goes on and on.

[wheels_down]

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/03/ex-virgin-md-joins-brisbane-airport-board/

[The Bullwinkle]

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/03/ex-virgin-md-joins-brisbane-airport-board/
How do these incompetent losers keep bouncing from one highly paid job to another?
And why isn’t he being investigated for his actions at Virgin?
It’s just unbelievable!!! :mad:

[Paragraph377]

How do these incompetent losers keep bouncing from one highly paid job to another?
And why isn’t he being investigated for his actions at Virgin?
It’s just unbelievable!!! :mad:

Its a disgrace. But that’s what you get when you’ve been a CEO - there is always a high profile organisation that wants you on their Board, even if you are a 4 foot tall conceited idiot.

[B772]

VA $100 Bonds are down to $78.90 today. Their lowest price ever. S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Virgin Australia from stable to negative.

[havick]

Its a disgrace. But that’s what you get when you’ve been a CEO - there is always a high profile organisation that wants you on their Board, even if you are a 4 foot tall conceited idiot.

Sadly, his appointment most likely going to result in costing operators even more for airport usage.

Sorry for the thread drift.

[Ragnor]

VA $100 Bonds are down to $78.90 today. Their lowest price ever. S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Virgin Australia from stable to negative.


This was done 28th February old news.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

his appointment most likely going to result in costing operators even more for airport usage.

Does the board decide pricing? I thought that would be determined by the commercial team... Whilst the monopolistic cartel that is airports continue to damage airline margins through the exorbitant pricing - airports need to remember that without airlines - they have no airport (or revenue).

[havick]

Does the board decide pricing? I thought that would be determined by the commercial team... Whilst the monopolistic cartel that is airports continue to damage airline margins through the exorbitant pricing - airports need to remember that without airlines - they have no airport (or revenue).

Just look at CASA, the board ultimately approved the cost recovery method.

The board drives the direction of the company/entity.

As a side note, you don’t think previous performance won’t dictate future actions? I give it 18 months until they (Airports) start moving even further away from core business and having everyone else pay for it with given Borghetti’s previous track record.

Ultimately the industry pays for any airport cost increases.

[TBM-Legend]

Just look at CASA, the board ultimately approved the cost recovery method.

The board drives the direction of the company/entity.

As a side note, you don’t think previous performance won’t dictate future actions? I give it 18 months until they (Airports) start moving even further away from core business and having everyone else pay for it with given Borghetti’s previous track record.

Ultimately the industry pays for any airport cost increases.


The industry doesn't pay. The customers do...

[havick]

The industry doesn't pay. The customers do...

Same same, operator costs passed on to clients/customers. Paint it however you want, but someone (other than the doofuses causing the cost increases) pay.

[Paragraph377]

Does the board decide pricing? I thought that would be determined by the commercial team... Whilst the monopolistic cartel that is airports continue to damage airline margins through the exorbitant pricing - airports need to remember that without airlines - they have no airport (or revenue).

By most accounts Boards are made up of lazy, trough swilling fu#kwits who are the custodians of the entity so to speak. The CEO does all the grunt work and the Board sign off on it. Sometimes they add a suggestion, demand something stupid, but generally they provide little value. From memory, as an example, Angus Houston is on the VA Board. Wow! And he knows what about airlines? He left a legacy of clusterfu#ks behind him in Defence and ASA. A decorated nobody who only knows how to ride the greasy pole, ask those who served with him from the early days through to the end of his career. But like IL Deuce, organisations just line up to hire these muppets. Airport commercial people are at the bottom of the pecking order.

[wheels_down]

And to think all of PS changes are under the same Chairperson who oversaw the operation under the previous fella who created all this cost.

Its like she just fronts up at a AGM and reads the autocue once a year?

Has anyone even seen the Chair on the line assisting or asking for feedback/etc..?

[Scooter Rassmussin]

Airport property is a lisense to print money. It’s certainly the cheaper alternative these days to have a third party caterer working from an off-airport site donthe catering and cleaning, depending on location of course. And T-Vasis is correct - margin loans for purchasing shares is crazy, unless you are an inside trader. Then again, some people have been burned brutally by property too, buying during the mining peak in places like Karatha, Emerald, Moranbah and so the list goes on and on.

Then Australia is screwed as the previous and current political parties sold these prime assets , how bad for the future of young Australians. Expect GST to rise to 20% in the near future.

[Foxxster]

Next financial results for Jan - June gonna be even worse.


you would have to be out of your mind to buy VA stock now. Well I will caveat that by saying if you want to treat it like a hand of poker at the casino then go ahead.

negative book value ...massive debt, unsustainable debt . Corporate bonds nobody wants ..

https://www.marketscreener.com/VIRGIN-AUSTRALIA-HOLDINGS-9597965/financials/

and that is before the effects of the virus which nobody knows how bad will be. But it will be bad and any bad is not something a struggling airline needs. It finally killed Flybe and it will kill more airlines.

[PPRuNeUser0198]

Just look at CASA, the board ultimately approved the cost recovery method.

But isn't CASA a government entity versus an airport which is a private enterprise that is motivated primarily by commercial gain and shareholder value?

[KiwiAvi8er]

you would have to be out of your mind to buy VA stock now. Well I will caveat that by saying if you want to treat it like a hand of poker at the casino then go ahead.

negative book value ...massive debt, unsustainable debt . Corporate bonds nobody wants ..

https://www.marketscreener.com/VIRGIN-AUSTRALIA-HOLDINGS-9597965/financials/

and that is before the effects of the virus which nobody knows how bad will be. But it will be bad and any bad is not something a struggling airline needs. It finally killed Flybe and it will kill more airlines.

HNA Group citing liquidation fears, Etihad posting another huge loss and this was before their massive route cutback and Covid-19 outbreak. I hope Virgin Australia can make it through as there are some great buggers working there.

[Dookie on Drums]

HNA Group citing liquidation fears, Etihad posting another huge loss and this was before their massive route cutback and Covid-19 outbreak. I hope Virgin Australia can make it through as there are some great buggers working there.

I fear the end is nigh

[Colonel_Klink]

HNA Group citing liquidation fears, Etihad posting another huge loss and this was before their massive route cutback and Covid-19 outbreak. I hope Virgin Australia can make it through as there are some great buggers working there.

How does this play out if HNA goes into liquidation? Will they be forced to sell their stake in VA - none of the current owners will buy it as that will trigger the requirement for a full takeover.

What happens if HNA can’t sell their share - or is that unlikely as someone, somewhere will purchase the shares at a ridiculously low price?

[Paragraph377]

HNA Group citing liquidation fears, Etihad posting another huge loss and this was before their massive route cutback and Covid-19 outbreak. I hope Virgin Australia can make it through as there are some great buggers working there.
And in usual smoke and mirrors fashion they are blaming Coronavirus, even though they have been heavily selling assets for the past 4 months, and switched from buyer to seller over 18 months ago.

It will be interesting to see how Scurrah will handle the current issues at Virgin, which realistically commenced 2 decades ago and are now gaining momentum. Oh well, if they fold, the Fuhrer will get a parachute into a new CEO role or as a a Board Director somewhere.
The day Virgin stopped being an all 737 configuration was the beginning of this slow, painful end. Where are the Village Idiots and ‘specialists’ now?

[B772]

VAH shares hit new low of 8.9 cents after falling another 15.24%

[markontop]

Virgin Bride.
Is she still not for sale or cannot even be given away?

[B772]

Discussions taking place today between Virgin and its creditors....

[MACH6]

Qantas announced today that it is reducing capacity to Japan. Yet Scurrah would have you believe that all is well and the Haneda flights will go as planned with strong forward bookings. When will they admit that this will be a disaster. The A330 will very shortly have little if anything to do.

[-41]

Discussions taking place today between Virgin and its creditors....
have a link, or source?

[B772]

-41. I heard the comment on the radio. If you are looking for a print comment see aap.com.au/qantas-cancels-more-international-flights/ (https://www.aap.com.au/qantas-cancels-more-international-flights/)

[Foxxster]

have a link, or source?


paywalled article in AFR. Not sure of details. Anybody have access?

Virgin Australia boss Paul Scurrah will have some nerves to calm when he addresses investors on Friday. Mar 5,

[TBM-Legend]

paywalled article in AFR. Not sure of details. Anybody have access?

Virgin Australia boss Paul Scurrah will have some nerves to calm when he addresses investors on Friday. Mar 5,



I've read the article and it doesn't say "creditors" at all, it refers to 'investors'!

[B772]

TBM-Legend If you reread the article it refers to "debt investors". This is a world away from your 'investors'.

News radio referred to creditors.

[Buster Hyman]

VAH shares hit new low of 8.9 cents after falling another 15.24%
Ended the day at 8.7c...people who bought at 9c will be kicking themselves...

[PPRuNeUser0198]

The going-concern value is often greater than the liquidation value of airlines, thereby motivating an infusion of capital into bankrupt or near bankruptcy airlines rather than their liquidation. Virgin isn't there yet. It has positive cash flow, has over a billion in cash reserves and it can service its debts.

[ernestkgann]

The share price is a bad look but it’s largely irrelevant. 90% of the airline is owned by five other entities. There are basically none on the market. Look at the trade volume compared with other public companies.

[virginexcess]

Except that it can never be reciprocated as there just aren't enough WB pilots to subsidise the 737s if the situation was reversed and the 737 was in trouble.
Those who went onto the widebody went in with the full knowledge that it may not work. Some people didn't take it because they didn't want to take the risk. You can't take the risk then expect a bailout because the cards haven't fallen your way.

Nothing against the sentiment except that it just doesn't work in reality and the pay differential between the two is significant.

And therein lies the problem. Your classic australian pilot "what's in it for me" attitude. Or more likely, "if those blokes lose their jobs, then that makes it more likely I'll be able to take their seat in the future".
What ever happened to looking after your colleagues or friends or community. We've turned in to such a dog eat dog society in general, and pilots represent the worst of it.
The proper thing to do is for all Virgin group pilots to take a pay cut to preserve the organisation. NB pilots can bang on all they want about WB being this and that and WB pilots knew the risk blah blah blah. But wait and see what happens to NB if the WB operations fold. A great deal of the domestic operation is supported by the on carriage of international passengers. We are seeing the effects of that now with drop in numbers from the virus. Then the NB fleet will face redundancies. Some of the attitudes here reflect a totally misplaced sense of invulnerability by NB pilots at Virgin. Sure the 330 is a massive problem and needs to be fixed. But international is a necessity and needs to survive. If it falls, it will be a portent of things to come. It is much easier to keep the current operation going than to cut back to the bone and then have to rebuild in the future. In fact I would say that if the WB were to go, then it would probably never return and Virgin would be relegated to a second level airline.

I realise i live in another world to most pilots, but building solidarity is the best way to deal with this crap. Two months ago, it was just 330 pilots, now it's Tiger 320 pilots and VAI 737 pilots. Make no mistake, VAA 737 pilots will be next. Rather than say "**** you, I'm all right jack" why not band together and protect everyone's jobs by taking across the group pay cuts or pay freezes. By the way, I'm pretty senior in the mix of things and I'm not concerned about redundancy. What I am concerned about is the future of the company. I'm also a great supporter of unions, but at the moment, the unions position (which is member driven) is just placing greater financial strain on the business. There will be no satisfaction for anyone to have preserved straight line seniority only to have the company fold in 18months. Whereas across the board pay cuts can do both. Preserve seniority, plus make a meaningful contribution toward keeping the company afloat. Straight line seniority preserves jobs only for those that benefit, while imposing massive training costs onto the business as seats are backfilled.

[The Bullwinkle]

And therein lies the problem. Your classic australian pilot "what's in it for me" attitude. Or more likely, "if those blokes lose their jobs, then that makes it more likely I'll be able to take their seat in the future".
What ever happened to looking after your colleagues or friends or community. We've turned in to such a dog eat dog society in general, and pilots represent the worst of it.
The proper thing to do is for all Virgin group pilots to take a pay cut to preserve the organisation. NB pilots can bang on all they want about WB being this and that and WB pilots knew the risk blah blah blah. But wait and see what happens to NB if the WB operations fold. A great deal of the domestic operation is supported by the on carriage of international passengers. We are seeing the effects of that now with drop in numbers from the virus. Then the NB fleet will face redundancies. Some of the attitudes here reflect a totally misplaced sense of invulnerability by NB pilots at Virgin. Sure the 330 is a massive problem and needs to be fixed. But international is a necessity and needs to survive. If it falls, it will be a portent of things to come. It is much easier to keep the current operation going than to cut back to the bone and then have to rebuild in the future. In fact I would say that if the WB were to go, then it would probably never return and Virgin would be relegated to a second level airline.

I realise i live in another world to most pilots, but building solidarity is the best way to deal with this crap. Two months ago, it was just 330 pilots, now it's Tiger 320 pilots and VAI 737 pilots. Make no mistake, VAA 737 pilots will be next. Rather than say "**** you, I'm all right jack" why not band together and protect everyone's jobs by taking across the group pay cuts or pay freezes. By the way, I'm pretty senior in the mix of things and I'm not concerned about redundancy. What I am concerned about is the future of the company. I'm also a great supporter of unions, but at the moment, the unions position (which is member driven) is just placing greater financial strain on the business. There will be no satisfaction for anyone to have preserved straight line seniority only to have the company fold in 18months. Whereas across the board pay cuts can do both. Preserve seniority, plus make a meaningful contribution toward keeping the company afloat. Straight line seniority preserves jobs only for those that benefit, while imposing massive training costs onto the business as seats are backfilled.

Right, so the A330 guys were thinking about the 737 guys when they pushed for their big pay rises?
I personally have never had any desire to go on the A330 and I say good luck to them for making heaps more money over several years and working a lot less than the 737 guys.
Just don’t come crying when the house of cards falls down.
Where was their solidarity when the A330 first came along?
There was a dog eat dog mentality to get onto the wide body so don’t go putting everything on the narrow body guys now.
I’ll happily do my bit to help but the proper thing to do would be for the A330 guys to go onto 737 pay for a while rather than everyone be punished.

[Chris2303]

"There was a dog eat dog mentality to get onto the wide body so don’t go putting everything on the narrow body guys now.
I’ll happily do my bit to help but the proper thing to do would be for the A330 guys to go onto 737 pay for a while rather than everyone be punished."

I think that you've just proved the point that virginexcess was trying to make.

[The Bullwinkle]

"There was a dog eat dog mentality to get onto the wide body so don’t go putting everything on the narrow body guys now.
I’ll happily do my bit to help but the proper thing to do would be for the A330 guys to go onto 737 pay for a while rather than everyone be punished."

I think that you've just proved the point that virginexcess was trying to make.

That’s what I was trying to do.

[Arctaurus]

S&P's study of VAH on 28 Feb 2020 that changed their outlook from stable to negative, relied on minimum GDP growth of 2.2%. With COVID-19, GDP might be lucky to reach 1.5% and may trend negative in one or two quarters. That would throw their estimates out the window.

So S&P can say what they like, but the complexity of external debt laden share holders and a collapsing world market due to COVID-19 make it almost impossible to predict where this will end. Whatever happens, VAH's cash reserve position of $ 900 m (apparently unsecured) will be drawn down significantly.

[B772]

ernestkgann: Unfortunately some of the travelling public have a different point of view from you. I am aware some VAH customers do not want to be left standing when the music stops.

[Servo]

Virginexcess, how much of the international passengers that fly domestically realistically come from the 330 and 777 operation? I would hazard to guess that the majority come from partner airlines that operate more international services than a handful of 330 and 777 provide.

Bullwinkle makes some very good points. They are facts and the truth.

Paycut is out of the window. Stupid. Pay freeze AT ALL LEVELS would be preferable and something the company is pushing for. All relative when a CEO gets paid millions and senior captains on 777 and A330 get a LOT more than 737 captain for example.

Then you need to look at the pay vs the amount of work/hours operated. A330 is getting cut again. Less flying, same pay.

Meanwhile 737 fleet hours in Sydney will NOT reduce for the next 12 months, sitting around the 80 hour mark.............

Bullwinkle made the point of the dog eat dog with the introduction of the 330. There were a LOT of people that took positions OUTSIDE of seniority. Some management and senior pilots have used the last few years as a means to get as many endorsements under their belt as they can. Changing fleets as they see fit.

All a bitter pill for a lot of the 737 pilots to swallow. Unfortunately this was ALL created by the company and its management. Now the guys and girls on the front line are expected to pay the price. Including turning their backs on fellow aviators.

If it all goes tits up, PS, SA and others in FLT OPS will not give a damn. They will have other corporate positions they can fill quite easily. Not so easy for flight crew.

Good luck. We are going to need it.

[The Baron]

Here's a thought. Just suppose you could help ensure the survival of the airline by taking a pay cut. Let's say the widebody guys go back to 737 rates for 2 years.
The numbers have always shown a loss for both widebody types. You would have to be deluded if you disagree. The 737 guys go on a 2 year pay freeze to help out. At least your fleet has always been in the black.
Would you be game? I have no skin in the game so it doesn't affect me. Obviously, we all know this has nothing much to do with Clovid-19 and just about everything to with insane board and CEO decisions going back to the beginning. Is it too late already to be worried about this?

[TimmyTee]

Then you need to look at the pay vs the amount of work/hours operated. A330 is getting cut again. Less flying, same pay.

Meanwhile 737 fleet hours in Sydney will NOT reduce for the next 12 months, sitting around the 80 hour mark.............


Does this mean 330 guys are asking your 737 drivers to pass some part of their wages to them, but continue doing those pretty high hours each month?
Wouldn’t a 80 or 90% part time 330 FO still earn more than a full time 737 FO?

[non_state_actor]

Does this mean 330 guys are asking your 737 drivers to pass some part of their wages to them, but continue doing those pretty high hours each month? Wouldn’t a 80 or 90% part time 330 FO still earn more than a full time 737 FO?

Yes that's true. Hence the general negative reaction to that concept.

I don't necessarily disagree with pay cuts across the board if it is looking really bad, however the original suggestion was that the 737 subsidise the WideBody with leave, when the WideBody can take paid/unpaid leave, get some more days off and still get paid more money than the 737.

paywalled article in AFR. Not sure of details. Anybody have access?

Virgin Australia boss Paul Scurrah will have some nerves to calm when he addresses investors on Friday. Mar 5,

According to the article there were some meetings with the Debt Note holders who are currently concerned as they have lost 20% on what is supposed to be a pretty safe investment. There is concern that if they bust a covenant who is going cover it of the shareholders?

[speedjet]

The numbers have always shown a loss for both widebody types. You would have to be deluded if you disagree.

I must be deluded because I disagree. The 777 is profitable.

[Foxxster]

The going-concern value is often greater than the liquidation value of airlines, thereby motivating an infusion of capital into bankrupt or near bankruptcy airlines rather than their liquidation. Virgin isn't there yet. It has positive cash flow, has over a billion in cash reserves and it can service its debts.

who are these people who are going to throw good money after bad. Major shareholders.. nope.

can they issue more shares.. nope. They would need to be issued at a discount. Nobody will want to subscribe. Issue more corporate bonds.. I am sure those that bought the last lot and have lost 20% will be lining up to repeat the process.

as for positive cashflow.. nope.

Year end Dec 2019. Dec 2018
cash flow from operations. +$199m +$263m. Difference was restructuring costs of -62.4 in 2019

cash flow from investing. -$122.7m. -$263.6m. Difference was +131.8 disposal of assets in 2019

cash flow from financing. -$708.5m. -$198.7m

net cashflow. -632.1m. -199.3m

$200m positive from operations is easily wiped out by something like a virus.. but overall substantially negative cash flows in the last two non virus years.

[PoppaJo]

I’m no finance man but I see they have a $350m usd bond due October next year. I assume a 100-150m loss this half. With the next FY only a quarter away, another 100m loss the back half this year.

So they will need another cash injection late next year?

[markontop]

Sounds familiar.
Mr. Twomey was banging on that Ansett had a billion dollars in the bank two weeks before Ansett collapsed. Only trouble, they owed four billion. Then the creditors called in the administrators. The Virgin rhetoric has been heard and used before.
Also Ansett had a lot of assets as reflected by over 90% of redundancies being delivered.

[The Baron]

The little Italian guy told me himself. They were happy to contain the ongoing losses from the 777 at 1million a month. They didn't expect it to mprove due to factors like the dearest 777 leases in the world . He said they were keeping them for the code share opportunities . They were putting as many people on other operators and taking the profit. Sorry if you don't believe it. I've heard guys on the 330 claiming they were making money too.

[PoppaJo]

Having a look at some A330 leasing rates you can see why he is so vocal in terms of its financial inefficiency. At the time Virgin signed the contract they were at an absolute premium of $1m a month. They now go for 30% less. It was obviously nothing more than a pissing contest at the time.

787-9 is cheaper to lease also. So 6x787s they could essentially lease for a lot less dollars compared to what they lease the current 330 fleet for. Plus bank the savings in fuel and loading efficiency.

Plus they can sell off the 777 fleet for what 100m a pop. 1x787 for Haneda and 5 to maintain LA.

That’s a lot of cost they will pull out.

They didn't expect it to mprove due to factors like the dearest 777 leases in the world
They own 4/5 Triples and they are long paid off.

[B772]

PoppaJoe: VA may not see October next year !. Your question "So they will need another cash injection late next year?" is best answered by saying they need to sell assets or find cash somewhere very soon. The Bonds sold in Nov 19 have lost 25% of their value. The current yield is 10.666%. Should the capital value fall lower ( I am of the opinion they will) with an increase in the yield they will be referred to as junk bonds.

You may be aware on 28 Nov 2020 S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on VA from stable to negative with B+ credit rating on the company. The companies debt is rated as B. The both of these ratings suggest VA is risky with a higher than average chance of default.

[CamelSquadron]

Sure you are not confusing the 777 with the 330?

BTW, the 330 does not make money.

The reality is that nothing VA flies actually makes money.

It made a massive mistake with its re positioning and re branding. Hundreds of millions of dollars down the drain and many years lost. Can it be turned around?

It has survived on the goodwill of its shareholders.

[The Baron]

You know, you guys must be right. The 777 makes bucketloads. Let's change the name of this thread from "VA pilots worried about employment 2021" to something like " Cashed up VA announces big new widebody order". Oh
and happy international women's day, I'm sure they celebrated that with virgin flair...

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

The reality is it has survived on the goodwill of its shareholders.
... and Qantas.