Qantas Group A321XLR order

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-updates-airbus-order-with-extra-long-range-a321/?fbclid=IwAR2T15ve_T1FU3c0PKPEEP3_vPwaaAoVEpJu1Es2hGE9NZ_9Gp wUhZjB3-g

[wheels_down]

Where exactly are they putting all these aircraft. Jetstar only has 60 to this day, in which probably half will see out next decade.

Either a Jetconnect fleet replacement or mainline.

[crosscutter]

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-updates-airbus-order-with-extra-long-range-a321/?fbclid=IwAR2T15ve_T1FU3c0PKPEEP3_vPwaaAoVEpJu1Es2hGE9NZ_9Gp wUhZjB3-g







Where’s the media beat up and associated fanfare? Quite disappointing.

To be flown by Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Pacific, Jetstar Japan or Jetstar Playschool and whoever else is cheaper than us expensive Aussies.

No way is it coming to Mainline at least initially. Made for JQ’s medium haul Asian presence and a replacement for the 787

BTW there are over 100 A320’s in the JQ group = the simple answer is probably the most likely

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Where exactly are they putting all these aircraft. Jetstar only has 60 to this day, in which probably half will see out next decade.

Either a Jetconnect fleet replacement or mainline.

Gareth Evans has already highlighted Cairns-Japan as potential A321XLR routes prior to today’s formal announcement as well as Cairns-Tokyo being mentioned in the press release.

36 airframes should see multiple group entities receive the type

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/jetstar-shows-interest-in-a321xlr-for-australia-japa-458638/

[Gear in transit]

Rated de will be happy! :E

[wheels_down]

AJ said they are not going to 3K/BL/GK

They are sourcing their own aircraft.

[fearcampaign]

You fell for it.
It’s just an addition of 10 Aircraft to an old order for Jetstar for 99 Aircraft from Airbus.
From Fairfax news.

Mr Joyce made the comments after the airline said it had increased it had added 10 planes to its order from Airbus, to 109 aircraft.

Qantas has also changed the mix of the order, which will now include as many as 36 Airbus A321 XLRs. These planes are longer and slimmer and can fly further.

Qantas will take delivery of some of the new Airbus planes next year and the year after, though the XLRs will not be delivered until 2024.

The order included significant flexibility for the airline to adjust delivery schedules depending on market conditions, the company said.

The new planes were ordered as part of the airline's ongoing fleet renewal.

Mr Joyce said the new planes, in particular the A321 XLRs, were a great opportunity for the airline's low-cost carrier Jetstar, although they may also be used in the Qantas fleet.

[crosscutter]

I don’t think anyone fell for anything. AJ lips were moving.

When it comes down to aircraft purchases and leases, like fuel purchases, it is naive to say the Jetstar subsidiaries are going to ‘source their own’. More correct would be because of the different ownership structures, the percentage of lease/ownership payments owed by the various stakeholders is yet to be determined.

If these options are the cheapest going around, and the best allocation of capital is to Japan, Vietnam or Singapore then don’t kid yourself that the subsidiaries won’t get them.

The difference between 5 years ago and in 5 years time is that both the JQ and QF businesses will be mature. The Mainline 330’s will need to be replaced and based on a low cost carriers requirement for new a/c to make the business case work (less Maint and greater fuel efficiency) it’s still more likely the 787’s will be transferred to Mainline rather than visions of further JQ growth. Hell...JQI need to prove a ROIC first and that’s been tough even with big brother help. Both sides of the business will be fighting for the capital.

[wheels_down]

Nothing is going to Vietnam. VN runs that joint and VN recently upgraded the fleet to sharklets. QF is just window dressing up there.

Jetstar has long given up in Singapore. Scoot next year will be x5 times of it. It’s the Tiger Australia of Singapore.

[George Glass]

Meanwhile Jetstar falls from 46th to to 53rd in Skytrax ratings. Why anybody wants to fly for 8 hours plus in a narrow body is a mystery. If I treated my Labrador like that idea get a visit from the RSPCA.

[dr dre]

No way is it coming to Mainline at least initially. Made for JQ’s medium haul Asian presence and a replacement for the 787

A321LR’s can do most of JQ long haul bar Hawaii. The 787’s are then sent to mainline ala the ex JQ 330’s that did the same thing for things like Asia and high density short haul domestic.

[Street garbage]

By 2024, the oldest 738's will be 23 years old..considering the amount of MEL's/ hold items they have at the moment (yes, I do know what's happening industrially), hopefully a fleet replacement will be sorted by then..but probably not, considering how many aircraft they have ordered for Mainline in the last 10 years...

[Buster Hyman]

It only seems like yesterday when Abeles bought the first A320 family aircraft for Oz & had to get "his mate" to change some rules so it could do SYD-PER! :ok:

[Don Diego]

you mean that a#@e wipe that kicked the bucket the other day???

[Rated De]

Rated de will be happy! :E



Quite.

It makes sense. As we debate the merit of this business, it is clear that Mr Evans telegraphed that the CASK margin was narrowing and as such taking a narrow body is one solution to that problem. The caveat the aircraft deliver the operating cost savings.

Boston Bruce sought the B788 because he asked for them. The A330 was due scheduled maintenance and the B788 is likely too. Best to hand them back, as cheap as they were and keep pretending. Boston Bruce could not make money long haul, nor can the B788. That Boston Bruce told Little Napoleon of the reality of 'mission creep' is part the reason why he was dispatched.
Now, clearly Fossil Leigh Clifford was just as wrong about the QSA 1992 limiting their aircraft purchases as he is wrong about most everything else.

Little Napoleon did actually order something.

Now he can use his 'project Bananarama, secret squirrel team' to evaluate and re-equip QF International. Doing so nearly halves their fuel included CASK, improves efficiency and generates less CO2. Better late than never, but even this low hanging fruit Little Napoleon can reach.

[f1yhigh]

As the saying goes, past behavior is a good indicator for future behavior, so I'm calling it now, the future of the Qantas Group will most likely be as follows:

- JQ B787s to mainline (how they'll configure them will be interesting)
- 321XLRs to JQ
- A350-1000ULR for Sunrise and maybe (a strong maybe) some A359 sister aircraft
- CASA to approve EDTO 330 for B787s before B747 retirement
- More 787 orders by next year
- B737s, A330s and A380s to stick around well into the 2030s barring maybe the oldest B737s
- By then we'll know for sure what the B737, A330 and A380 replacements will be. My guess would be B737 MAX as B738 replacements once the dust settles down, either more A350s or the B777X for A380 replacement, more B787 for A330 replacement

As far as Network is concerned, maybe they'll take on some more of JQs A320s as JQ take on more deliveries and eventually the contract with Cobham won't be renewed the next time round. When the F100s will be phased out is anyone's guess at this stage, but Network could eventually become an all A320 outfit.

[Blueskymine]

Unfortunately the network guys will be getting a bit brazen soon. So the company will need a another growth vehicle to leverage Network.

Skippers anyone?

[Rated De]

Unfortunately the network guys will be getting a bit brazen soon. So the company will need a another growth vehicle to leverage Network.

Skippers anyone?


Yes and to do it a former Union President, now an IR negotiator is busily setting up the narrative for foreign pilots.

[Buster Hyman]

you mean that a#@e wipe that kicked the bucket the other day???

Bit harsh on the wipes there...but yes, him.

[Dee Vee]

As the saying goes, past behavior is a good indicator for future behavior, so I'm calling it now, the future of the Qantas Group will most likely be as follows:

- JQ B787s to mainline (how they'll configure them will be interesting)
- 321XLRs to JQ

So what you are saying is Qantas's premium customers get the old tired noisy aircraft, and the low cost airline gets the quiet brand new spankers (probably for free)?

The way they treat their customers, I really can't see why anyone flies with Qantas

[crosscutter]

Those 787’s after a refit won’t be tired and time will tell if the new composites have the durability to warrant the criticism of being old.

It is reflective that JQI can’t turn a decent ROIC and be competitive when Maint costs rise and rival carriers get more efficient jets...but somehow QFI can. And this has been my point. Perhaps if QF were given the new jets they would earn a higher ROIC than JQI.

When it comes to allocation AJ might be gone.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Those 787’s after a refit won’t be tired and time will tell if the new composites have the durability to warrant the criticism of being old.

It is reflective that JQI can’t turn a decent ROIC and be competitive when Maint costs rise and rival carriers get more efficient jets...but somehow QFI can. And this has been my point. Perhaps if QF were given the new jets they would earn a higher ROIC than JQI and that doesn’t feel fair.

When it comes to allocation AJ might be gone.

I’m sure a major part of the business case of having JQ take delivery of the A321XLR to replace the 787 will be the huge savings of essentially having a single fleet type (as far as tech, cabin crewing and maintenance costs are concerned).

To match the capacity of our 11 787s we should only need 18 or so A321XLRs (maybe less considering the A321LRs can cover the Bali flying) so that would leave plenty of airframes for QF to take delivery of too.

It would suit QF well on the golden triangle as well as thinner routes into Asia.

The biggest variable of the fleet plans will be how much range the dense JQ cabin config will actually get as far as whether or not the A321XLR will be able to replace all JQ 787 flying. I doubt it will be anywhere near the 4,700nm stated by Airbus.

MEL and SYD to SGN, BKK and HKT are all around 3800nm and the soon to be launched OOL ICN is further again (4200nm). The HNL flying could be taken over by QF.

I suppose they have 5 years to figure that out!

[maggot]

I’m sure a major part of the business case of having JQ take delivery of the A321XLR to replace the 787 will be the huge savings of essentially having a single fleet type (as far as tech, cabin crewing and maintenance costs are concerned).

How much will it hurt coming back from the wide body variation?

Mou is at 330 FO per, for now.....
​​​

​​​​​

[SandyPalms]

How much will it hurt coming back from the wide body variation?

Mou is at 330 FO per, for now.....
​​​

​​​​​
I suppose QF pilots are lucky that a precident was set all those years ago when JQ pilots were trained to fly the A330 at the expence of QF pilots. I'd think it would be difficult to argue the opposite if this rumour turns out to be true.

[B767MAD]

Unfortunately the network guys will be getting a bit brazen soon. So the company will need a another growth vehicle to leverage Network.

Skippers anyone?

When you're all dressed up and hit your Roo tailed plane to still know you're on Network pay & conditions ... didn't take long ..

[ROH111]

You’d want to find a chair if you’re a QF pilot.

it might only be a PER A330 FO slot, but it’s more pay than a JQ 320 captain.

Id say most QF pilot are now sh....tting themselves as I bet no QF guys have factored in the MOU slots... and once in, these MOU pilots won’t return to JQ.

Slow progression if you’re not 1800 and below!

[SandyPalms]

How many MOU pilots are still there (pre Nov 2004 hires)? My guess would be less than 50, but I don’t really know. And the slots are 7 in 20 max? But we know that can be manipulated to less, as we’ve seen for the last 15 years. I wouldn’t be that worried.

[goodonyamate]

How many MOU pilots are still there (pre Nov 2004 hires)? My guess would be less than 50, but I don’t really know. And the slots are 7 in 20 max? But we know that can be manipulated to less, as we’ve seen for the last 15 years. I wouldn’t be that worried.

116.

they MOU slots are only available in initial vacancies, not residuals, and don’t have to be made available every time there is an allocation. Also QF can stipulate where and w hich fleet. The recent MOU numbers in PER would also have been able to get 787 PER, 330MEL. Once checked out, normal freeze applies. Plus JQ have to agree to release the pilot on LWOP. Aren’t JQ short as well? I’d expect a few to trickle across before the brakes are put on for a while.

[SandyPalms]

116.

Thanks. That a lot more than I expected. But I guess many won’t be the slightest bit interested as they’d most likely be on the 787. And even if the A321 was to replace it, that’s still 5 years away.

[ConfigFull]

Why on earth are there still MOU numbers being printed on the seniority list, beyond these 116? Delete them!

[Beer Baron]

If the pilots who have got the A330 slots are not endorsed any idea who does the training and who foots the bill?

[Sparrows.]

Why on earth are there still MOU numbers being printed on the seniority list, beyond these 116? Delete them!

Because if a MOU position is advertised and isn’t taken up by a successful JQ applicants the highest JQ number on the QF seniority list is deleted, for each unfilled advertised slot.

So for arguments sake if 5 were deleted off the top because no one applied or were deemed unsuccessful. But then all 116 were taken after, 121st JQ number “printed” on the QF seniority list could be allocated.

Thats why more than 116 numbers have been “printed”.

[Prolapsed Annulus]

As the saying goes, past behavior is a good indicator for future behavior, so I'm calling it now, the future of the Qantas Group will most likely be as follows:

- JQ B787s to mainline (how they'll configure them will be interesting)
- 321XLRs to JQ
- A350-1000ULR for Sunrise and maybe (a strong maybe) some A359 sister aircraft
- CASA to approve EDTO 330 for B787s before B747 retirement
- More 787 orders by next year
- B737s, A330s and A380s to stick around well into the 2030s barring maybe the oldest B737s
- By then we'll know for sure what the B737, A330 and A380 replacements will be. My guess would be B737 MAX as B738 replacements once the dust settles down, either more A350s or the B777X for A380 replacement, more B787 for A330 replacement

For what it's worth, AJ has expressed interest in the NMA / 797 - as an A330 replacement on domestic & regional international sectors.

"In June 2019, following the launch of the A321XLR, Boeing was understood to be prioritizing the 275-seat variant, tentatively dubbed NMA-7X, ahead of the 225-seat NMA-6X which would compete more directly with the A321XLR." Boeing will start pitching the type in late 2019 and launch it in 2020. (Source: Wikipedia.)

The A380 cabin refresh is described as a "mid-life upgrade". On average they're a bit over 10 years old now. Let's assume they want 10 years out of the A380 cabin reconfig (first one back in service Sep 2019 and last one by late-2020). The fleet will be on borrowed time from late-2030.

TLS has also said it's cheaper to fly two 787's nose to tail than it is to fly one A380 on the same route. If the per seat economics of upcoming LR and XLR big twins - A350-900/1000, B777-8X/9X, or long range version of NMA - is even better than 787's, that would add to the bias toward getting rid of A380's sooner rather than later.

A sustained hike in fuel prices in mid / late 2020's may kill the A380's earlier than 2030.

The A380 is still a relatively young beast with lots of new tech materials in centre wing box, wings, empennage, stabilisers and fuselage skin, so the above assumes that there are no life-shortening surprises discovered in these materials in upcoming heavy checks.

[havick]

For what it's worth, AJ has expressed interest in the NMA / 797 - as an A330 replacement on domestic & regional international sectors.

"In June 2019, following the launch of the A321XLR, Boeing was understood to be prioritizing the 275-seat variant, tentatively dubbed NMA-7X, ahead of the 225-seat NMA-6X which would compete more directly with the A321XLR." Boeing will start pitching the type in late 2019 and launch it in 2020. (Source: Wikipedia.)

The A380 cabin refresh is described as a "mid-life upgrade". On average they're a bit over 10 years old now. Let's assume they want 10 years out of the A380 cabin reconfig (first one back in service Sep 2019 and last one by late-2020). The fleet will be on borrowed time from late-2030.

TLS has also said it's cheaper to fly two 787's nose to tail than it is to fly one A380 on the same route. If the per seat economics of upcoming LR and XLR big twins - A350-900/1000, B777-8X/9X, or long range version of NMA - is even better than 787's, that would add to the bias toward getting rid of A380's sooner rather than later.

A sustained hike in fuel prices in mid / late 2020's may kill the A380's earlier than 2030.

The A380 is still a relatively young beast with lots of new tech materials in centre wing box, wings, empennage, stabilisers and fuselage skin, so the above assumes that there are no life-shortening surprises discovered in these materials in upcoming heavy checks.

All good in theory, until you take into account how long 747’s are in the fleet for as a guide of phasing out a fleet within QF.

[Zhoottoo]

Willie Walsh might take all 12 QF A380s for BA????

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/interview-willie-walsh-isg-sechs-weitere-airbus-a380-wuerden-sinn-machen

In our last interview about two years ago Airbus A380 were still a topic - second-hand. In the meantime, some will become available. Are you still interested?
Yes. At British Airways, we would definitely think about it.

If you get them for free?
If we get them for the right price. The biggest problem is the cost of the renovation, which is quite high. We have to be sure that we can do it in ways that make it worthwhile, and then it will be an issue. We currently have twelve A380s in the British Airways fleet and could imagine 18. Six more Airbus A380s would make sense.

[f1yhigh]

All good in theory, until you take into account how long 747’s are in the fleet for as a guide of phasing out a fleet within QF.

Pretty much this. Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. Those A380s will get run to the ground.

[bankrunner]

you mean that a#@e wipe that kicked the bucket the other day???

​Not the bloke who passed on at the age of 89? :E