Hurricane? THIS is a hurricane.

[airspace alpha]

Check out the maho beach (st Maarten airport) webcam right now. 8pm oz time, 11am uk. It's still broadcasting but god knows how.
Maho Beach Cam - SXM Airport Cam on St Maarten (http://www.mahobeachcam.com)

[Cazalet33]

OFFLINE (Unable to load video stream)

Here's how it looks from above:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2017/09/05/TELEMMGLPICT000139395975_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqNJjoeBT78QIaYdkJd EY4CnGTJFJS74MYhNY6w3GNbO8.jpeg?imwidth=800

[airspace alpha]

Yes it's offline. What I saw was trees bent backward, a hatchback rammed into a building- and bear in mind this camera overviews the airport. Hopefully it may come back online but methinks this may be a tad difficult

[Kakpipe Cosmonaut]

Tncm 060820z 0608/0706 02030g50kt 2sm ra sct015 bkn040
fm060900 34075g95kt 2sm ra bkn015 ovc030
fm061100 300120g140kt 1sm +ra bkn015 ovc030
fm061500 25060g80kt 5sm -shra bkn025 bkn050
fm061900 18035g50kt p6sm -shra sct025 bkn060
fm070000 15020g30kt p6sm few025 sct060

[unworry]

Video of a flight through the eye of #Irma (NOAA)

https://twitter.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/905184657431506945

The wings look especially stiff. What's the ride like in a Lockheed WP-3D Orion?

:yuk:

[supermarine]

Wow, this is shocking footage, good luck to all in that part of the world.

[wiggy]

RAT

The only "holiday" type coverage I've seen was Simon Calder on TV this AM. He's not usually on my "must watch" list be to be fair he did and mention the BA op into /out of ANU yesterday and also made some fairly interesting comments about how some other UK travel operators are (as of this AM) refusing to let holiday makers cancel planned holidays to the likes of the Florida destinations this weekend without incurring a penalty.

I have to say I think he was a bit perplexed about the lack of a response from some outfits for all the reasons you mention (bits of hotels potentially going missing, etc).

[sleeper]

Klm crew was evacuated to Curacao on the last flight out.

[oceancrosser]

Here is a later TAF. No METAR since 0800 this morning. I have never seen winds like this in a weather message:

TNCM 061121Z 0612/0712 300120G140KT 1SM +RA BKN015 OVC030
FM061500 250/60G80KT 5SM -SHRA BKN025 BKN050
FM061900 18035G50 P6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN060
FM070000 15020G30 P6SM FEW025 SCT060

[787-1]

Well I'm supposed to be flying out to Cuba on Saturday - doubt that's going to happen. Thomas Cook have kept a low profile though - wonder what their plans are!

[wiggy]

I think Mr Calder might have been thinking along the lines of Thomas Cook this AM.

Seems you need to heed Foreign Office Advice (which seems to be talk to your airline....)and if you are thinking of cancelling check on your travel insurance..

Good luck.

[Contact Approach]

Just go for it. Whats the worst that can happen?

[rog747]

damage reports from first landfall region

Barbuda (which is very flat) are offline (a worry)
Antigua copped a lot
St Maarten St Baarts and Anguilla suffering cataclysmic damage and the strongest Govt buildings destroyed in St M. Philipsburg

heading now for BVI's with 11 foot storm surge expected
wind speeds forecast to 225 mph

key west under full EVAC

source BBC wx man.

[blimey]

There's no such thing as the wrong sort of weather - just the wrong sort of fuel load.

Good luck.

[Havingwings4ever]

Delta flight goes viral after pilot flies directly into Hurricane Irma | KSNV (http://news3lv.com/news/offbeat/delta-flight-goes-viral-after-pilot-flies-directly-into-hurricane-irma)

[AerocatS2A]

It was 300/19G30, weak sauce.

[Carbon Bootprint]

Yeah, from what I was told by an NCAR scientist who used to do this stuff, it's "sporty."

[galaxy flyer]

I had a Wing/CC who had been the OG at the AFRC Hurricane Hunters Wing. He said his first ride was scary stuff. But, the crew said it was pretty normal. The ones I've spoken with said you go years and think it wasn't any worse than strong low, then the next storm will scare the hell out of you. The radar in the J models was a problem, nit enough power to bore thru the heavy rainfall rates to see the real TRW. A few scares then.

[Carbon Bootprint]

GF, that's pretty much what the guy I referred to said (he was based at NCAR HQ in Boulder). The first time was WTF? and then after that he kinda got used to the fact the wings usually don't fall off no matter what the bird seems to be doing. Even when it seemed a bit unsettling. Gotta love those folks. :ok:

[pattern_is_full]

SXM-St. Martin took a direct hit. At least one jetway scattered all over the ramp, and penetration of wind and rain throughout the terminal.

Won't be on anyone's sked for a while.

http://i4.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article11122759.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/MAIN-World-famous-Princess-Juliana-St-Maarten.jpg

[Flying Binghi]

GF, that's pretty much what the guy I referred to said (he was based at NCAR HQ in Boulder). The first time was WTF? and then after that he kinda got used to the fact the wings usually don't fall off no matter what the bird seems to be doing. Even when it seemed a bit unsettling. Gotta love those folks. :ok:

Yep.

One of the first climatologists, Reid Bryson, used to get into a B24 and do WX forecasts for the B29's doing Tokyo runs. Bryson did a few into cyclone flights in a B24.

An 'old breed' practical scientist. His most famous quote: "...You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling CO2.."





.

[Kulverstukas]

Princess Juliana Airport is destroyed by Hurricane Irma | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4858858/Princess-Juliana-Airport-destroyed-Hurricane-Irma.html)

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/09/06/23/43F86C6500000578-4858858-Video_footage_shows_the_moment_the_storm_ripped_through_Prin cess-a-3_1504736695253.jpg

[atakacs]

Well destroyed is perhaps a bit excessive but heavily damaged indeed.

From what I hear minimal operations should be possible within the week.

[Basil]

Video of a flight through the eye of #Irma (NOAA)

https://twitter.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/905184657431506945

The wings look especially stiff. What's the ride like in a Lockheed WP-3D Orion?

:yuk:
Kind of lost interest when I saw the little dangly thing hanging from the overhead panel . . . .

[sleeper]

Maybe, last time in 1995 it took months. They will try to clear the runway sufficient enough to enable the neccesary aid flights. Commercial ops will be a long long time comming.

[atakacs]

Yes that's the plan. Lots of passenger infrastructure has been impacted but the basic structures seem reasonably intact. The biggest problem will be to bring in enough equipment to help the cleanup effort.

[White Knight]

Kind of lost interest when I saw the little dangly thing hanging from the overhead panel . . . .

That's the g meter!

[underfire]

the hurricanes keep lining up

[atakacs]

Fresh picture of Princess Juliana Airport

https://i.imgur.com/vEaZsNr.jpg

There is (a lot) of work to be done but it is definitely not "destroyed"

[MathFox]

Dutch media reports that clean up at MXS is in progress and they'll try to get some humanitarian flights in starting tomorrow (Friday).

[Falck]

Yes, useing kdc-10 to fly to Curacao with water and medication and Marines 110 man strong.
A couple of Hercules as well. Kdc-10 might not be able to land in St Maarten due to rwy state. But the Hercules might be able. So fly to Curacao reload all stuff on to the Hercules that flies there as well I assume.
If that does not work. Than with tailgate do Airdroppings over the Island.

Something along those lines.

[barry lloyd]

Dutch media reports that clean up at MXS is in progress and they'll try to get some humanitarian flights in starting tomorrow (Friday).

I am presuming you meant SXM? MXS is in Samoa.

[IBMJunkman]

Current projection shows it going right up the center of Florida. The storm is wider than the state! None of Florida is safe.

[feueraxt]

More footage of Juliana airport:

Hurricane Irma annihilates St. Martin?s world-famous airport | New York Post (http://nypost.com/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-annihilates-st-martins-world-famous-airport/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark)

[llondel]

Yes, useing kdc-10 to fly to Curacao with water and medication and Marines 110 man strong.
A couple of Hercules as well. Kdc-10 might not be able to land in St Maarten due to rwy state. But the Hercules might be able. So fly to Curacao reload all stuff on to the Hercules that flies there as well I assume.
If that does not work. Than with tailgate do Airdroppings over the Island.

Something along those lines.

Having seen the Hercules do a zero-altitude drop before now, they could just have it all in the back, fly low along the runway, chuck the parachute out the back and bang! Several large pallets delivered just like that. Of course, that assumes there's resources to clear it off the runway before the next delivery.

[galaxy flyer]

That's called Low Altitude Parachute Extraction System (LAPES). The USAF stopped doing it as a regular event years ago. Fair amount of risks in many evolutions.

[ShotOne]

Unfortunately a large part of the payload (and cost) comprises parachutes and pallets. Then it's lot of effort to retrieve the maybe intact (or not) goods. What is needed is a working airport...which according to today's news reports is where U.K. Efforts are rightly focusing

[crewmeal]

What are the UK carriers doing to evacuate holiday makers back to the UK as Irma seems likely to hit Florida?

[WindSheer]

One hell of a line of GA a/c flying away from Florida before the next wave hits....

[back to Boeing]

One hell of a line of GA a/c flying away from Florida before the next wave hits....

That's exactly what I did before floyd hit in 1999. From Vero Beach to Jacksonville along with the whole piper factory and flight safety. As it was Floyd missed.

[Wycombe]

Eerie looking at FR24 view of Florida (from here in the UK) currently (2300L Sat).

Pretty much nothing moving, or overflying from about Orlando/Tampa area south to Cuba.

Only thing I did see a few hours ago was a NOAA P-3 heading south, to around the north coast of Cuba, then looping back north.

Take care over there.

[J.O.]

That line was a gaggle of C172s from Embry Riddle University, heading up to Auburn to take shelter.

[India Four Two]

Wycombe,

I’ve been doing the same thing over the past few days. You can tell where Irma is by the dearth of air traffic, with just the NOAA E-3 or NOAA49, a GIV, going round in circles!

[Capn Bloggs]

Having seen the Hercules do a zero-altitude drop before now, they could just have it all in the back, fly low along the runway, chuck the parachute out the back and bang! Several large pallets delivered just like that. Of course, that assumes there's resources to clear it off the runway before the next delivery.
Surely that would damage the runway even more than the hurricane had? Unless there was subsurface pavement damage, I wouldn't have thought strong wind and rain would do anything to the runway itself; maybe a bit of flying debris damage. Dropping tonnes of pallets doing 100kts on it, on the other hand...

[galaxy flyer]

No, they dropped LAPES in fields, on runways, no problem. It just slides along to a stop. The Green Berets wanted to be put in cages with seats and LAPES'd. The demo with dummies in the seats tumbled. It was a C-130 evolution and I'm not sure if the RAF did it.

[Airbubba]

Only thing I did see a few hours ago was a NOAA E-3 heading south, to around the north coast of Cuba, then looping back north.

You can tell where Irma is by the dearth of air traffic, with just the NOAA E-3 or NOAA49, a GIV, going round in circles!

I don't think NOAA has any E-3's (aircraft or otherwise, they don't have enlisted troops in their uniformed service). :=

Looks like NOAA 42 (aka "Kermit"), a WP-3D, just hurrevac'ed from the NOAA Ops Center at Lakeland, Florida to New Orleans (LAL-MSY).

[India Four Two]

Mea culpa Airbubba,

My brain thought 'P' but my finger somehow typed 'E'.

I've been around long enough to know the difference between a Boeing and a Lockheed product! ;)

[Wycombe]

Only thing I did see a few hours ago was a NOAA E-3 heading south

Not even sure why I typed E-3, I did of course mean P-3 (or Lockheed Orion/Electra if you prefer!)

[b1lanc]

Mea culpa Airbubba,

My brain thought 'P' but my finger somehow typed 'E'.

I've been around long enough to know the difference between a Boeing and a Lockheed product! ;)
Well, 'E' is close to 'P' on the keyboard:E

Kind of ironic that that airframe that once had a tendency to shed wings at altitude is strong enough still to fly through these massive hurricanes 50 years later.

[413X3]

Yep.

One of the first climatologists, Reid Bryson, used to get into a B24 and do WX forecasts for the B29's doing Tokyo runs. Bryson did a few into cyclone flights in a B24.

An 'old breed' practical scientist. His most famous quote: "...You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling CO2.."





.

Your quote of him is being nothing like a scientist. Grumpy old people.

[Carbon Bootprint]

Kind of ironic that that airframe that once had a tendency to shed wings at altitude is strong enough still to fly through these massive hurricanes 50 years later.
Absolutely! Once they got that pesky flutter thing fixed it showed itself to be a very robust airframe. (Apologies if it seems I'm making light of it; I'm not, and I am quite aware people died until the issue with the Electra was understood and repaired.)

[galaxy flyer]

We had an Electra Captain at EAL that showed up at the plane wearing a parachute! There were a lot of old Electra guys in BOS and they loved the plane. Last mainline plane flown VFR during ATC slowdowns prior to PATCO in '81.

[CONSO]

Well, 'E' is close to 'P' on the keyboard:E

Kind of ironic that that airframe that once had a tendency to shed wings at altitude is strong enough still to fly through these massive hurricanes 50 years later.


Actually the problem was weak engine mounts which allowed the turbo props to go into a ' whirl mode" due to gyroscopic action which reached the natural frequency of the whole wing structure- not really flutter as usually defined. Boeing had supplied a hydraulic driven rotating unbalanced weights system to drive wings into flutter mode during test flights- what that proved was that the wing was much stiffer than expected such that the usual flutter exitation modes had little or no effect.

The basic fix was to strengthen and redsign the engine mounts. There are several reports/books writtten about the issue and some of the sphincter tightening tests run at over max speed in VERY turbulent weather of the sierra wave and then turning on the unbalanced weight vibrators out on the wing tips .

Of course there has always been the ' argument ' that a more flexible wing might- repeat MIGHT- have avoided the issue initially.

but in any case the fix proved more than satisfactory- but killed the commercial version of the electra ..

[Flash2001]

I thought that the number of wing ribs was increased in the Lockheed Electra Action Program that fixed all but the public relations part of the problem.

[b1lanc]

Actually the problem was weak engine mounts which allowed the turbo props to go into a ' whirl mode" due to gyroscopic action which reached the natural frequency of the whole wing structure- not really flutter as usually defined.
I read through the LEAP report - seems that "damaged powerplant installation" was a key - some discussion of repeated 'hard landings' damaging the mounts and the supporting braces was a suspicion but didn't address the design flaws in the first place. Makes me curious if as the new turbo-prop entry into the market, 'hard landings' were part getting used to type. I'm sure there were some stiff hits when jets hit the market due to spool up time.

Always wondered how the other props rode - only experience was a number of DC-6 trips between LaGuardia and Cleveland but I kind of remember the wings as being rather stiff - little bending and we did hit some really awful turbulence going through fronts and storms over the PA mountains. Watching the wings flex a couple years later on my first DC-8 and 707 flights, thought sure they were going to fall off so I'm guessing my prior prop flights at a young age set some internal expectation that wings shouldn't flex.

[b1lanc]

Don't think they added ribs but did add new trusses to some of the ribs. The details are in the LEAP document on the FAA site - http://lessonslearned.faa.gov/ElectraWings/Leap.pdf. Great detail with pictures - some extensive mods.

[.Scott]

MIA closed today - perhaps tomorrow.
Miami's main airport doesn't know yet when it will reopen after Irma - Sep. 10, 2017 (http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/10/news/florida-airports-miami-hurricane-irma/index.html)

[ImPlaneCrazy]

Scotts post has triggered a question in my head.

Were there any aircraft on the ground in MIA/FLL when Irma struck? If so, how did they fare? I am sure I saw two light aircraft that didn't fare too well at SXM.

[jugofpropwash]

Some of the photos of Florida airports I've seen appear to show large aircraft on the ground. Unless they were unserviceable, why on earth would the airlines leave them, there? Best case scenario, they're going to be trapped until the airport reopens, worse case, the plane is damaged or destroyed. That's not even considering the fact that they could have easily sold enough tickets for fill any flights out of the hurricane zone. I really don't get it.

[galaxy flyer]

In MRO status.

[lomapaseo]

Most domestic airlines have well planned contingency plans for northers weather like snowstorms. Based on routes these planes tend to sit planes out in the warm aprons of MCO etc. til they can get back into some semblance of route planning. Rarely do you see the likes of the same airline flying in the last flight of the day to a northern city and get the plane cancelled and stuck there.

I suspect that their experience with how to best recover schedules is easiest when they park the planes at these same specific southern airports and return them to service against a smooth and tried plan.

In other words an extra day on the ground is a lot easier to handle when they resume service than having those planes and crew scattered somewhere else.

[golfyankeesierra]

KLM B747 back at St Maarten (http://newsinflight.com/2017/09/16/klm-boeing-747-lands-at-st-maarten-airport-for-the-first-time-after-hurricane-irma/)
28 oct 2016 would have been the last KLM B747 landing at SXM, now (for tragic reasons) she is back!
According the KLM newsflash, the relief flight is crewed by volunteers :ok:

[Contact Approach]

Great sight to see!

[MNRAF]

As noted in comments, #1 reverser not deployed. Someone said low mass therefore not required - don't believe that.
Has to be either tech prob or avoiding re-ingestion of debris.

[ImageGear]

I wonder if Branson is going to declare the damage to his insurance company

When one acquires a certain amount of personal wealth, it becomes uneconomic to carry any insurance unless it is legally compulsory.

For some, it will be when one has acquired sufficient property or assets that can be sold to offset 99% of the liability with certainty. The other 1% (or more) would probably be disallowed for some reason by an insurance company anyway, and "pseudo" bankruptcy may become an alternative option. Only the middle classes buy insurance out of necessity.

[Carbon Bootprint]

2017 is shaping up to possibly overtake 2004 in terms of the number of Hurricanes hitting the US. 2004 was a rough year in Florida with 4 making land fall. Two of them made a direct Bulls-Eye on Vero Beach. What are the odds of that ever happening again? You may well be right, but even as bad as 2004 was, it was relatively "mild" compared to 2005. That year brought us Katrina, Rita, Wilma and so many other storms they actually ran out of names and started using the backup Greek names (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc.). Not all hit the US, but nevertheless the storms outlasted the traditional season of June-November and went into December and even January of 2006. Crazy stuff, the likes of which I hope to never see again. That year is the reason I have a whole-house generator and enough food to last for a month, because even though we don't usually flood here the area does turn into an isolated island at times of high water events.

Oddly enough, 2005 also included storms named Harvey, Jose and Maria. :sad:

For more. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season)

[galaxy flyer]

Looks like Maria is going to shuffle the rubble in the Leewards Monday and Tuesday.