Iran

[Ninthace]

Plenty of other possibilities with a higher coefficient of credibility, surely?

[DogTailRed2]

Death toll now 100. Someone stirring up hate to draw the conflict wider?

[Ninthace]

I know this is the internet but do we have to reach straight for the conspiracy theory?

[DogTailRed2]

I know this is the internet but do we have to reach straight for the conspiracy theory?
Why is my comment a conspiracy (It's my opinion) and what's your opinion of why this happened?

[Ninthace]

Why is my comment a conspiracy (It's my opinion) and what's your opinion of why this happened?
We have yours plus #750. There are other factions as suggested in the source story
Suspicion may fall on Arab separatists and Sunni jihadist groups like Islamic State (IS), who have carried out attacks on civilians and security forces in the country in recent years.
Or Time
No group immediately claimed responsibility for what Iranian state media called a “terroristic" attack shortly after the blasts in Kerman, about 820 kilometers (510 miles) southeast of the capital, Tehran.

While Israel has carried out attacks in Iran over its nuclear program, it has conducted targeted assassinations, not mass-casualty bombings. Sunni extremist groups including the Islamic State group have conducted large-scale attacks in the past that killed civilians in Shiite-majority Iran, though not in relatively peaceful Kerman.

Iran also has seen mass protests in recent years, including those over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini (https://apnews.com/article/iran-mahsa-amini-sakharov-prize-travel-ban-7c2e5e1ef256309dda656e8328c998a2) in 2022. The country also has been targeted by exile groups in attacks dating back to the turmoil surrounding its 1979 Islamic Revolution (https://apnews.com/article/ba09176271ab43e7a3660757791cf067).

[Mr Mac]

[QUOTE=Asturias56;11566102]"I did know a US Navy Boomer officer who operated in the Mediterranean, and said they were always in Western Mediterranean due to depth."

Thats odd - the eastern med is at least as deep as the western med - and back in November an Ohio went through the Suez Canal

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/712x401/2024_01_med_depth_073234182dba7c38c07d61111fe103ebda0c97c1.j pg[/QUOTE
Asturias]
He was on Polaris, and said they operated in the Western Mediterranean. The gentleman is now dead, and his time in US Navy would be late 60;s to early 80;s when he left to work in IT, so I cannot ask any further, but he said always in the western Mediterranean and only one boat. I think also German U Boats also stayed clear of the Eastern Mediterranean to a degree, as far more sunk in the Western Mediterranean as well, but willing to be contradicted.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[DogTailRed2]

We have yours plus #750. There are other factions as suggested in the source story

Or Time
These are facts or opinions. These are not conspiracy theories. What's your opinion?

[henra]

These are facts or opinions. These are not conspiracy theories. What's your opinion?
At least they are opinions straight in line with conspiracy theories.
No opinion yet on my side. It's a complex region...

[Ninthace]

These are facts or opinions. These are not conspiracy theories. What's your opinion?Since no one has claimed responsibility, they are not facts, yet. The MO is inconsistent with Israel.

[Asturias56]

ORAC - I'd guess the "sources" the Times quotes are probably related to some nonentities in No10 - if you read it carefully there's no serious information in that article about what is and what is not available

[DogTailRed2]

LBC reports 80% of shipping traffic being diverted. Expect delays on goods like oil and food.

[melmothtw]

Since no one has claimed responsibility, they are not facts, yet. The MO is inconsistent with Israel.

Islamic State has claimed responsibility.

[Ninthace]

Islamic State has claimed responsibility.
It certainly is more their MO.

[Lonewolf_50]

Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly Iran attack, Tehran vows revenge | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-vows-revenge-after-biggest-attack-since-1979-revolution-2024-01-04/)

As a follow up on mel's post: DUBAI, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Islamic State claimed (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/islamic-state-claims-responsibility-attacks-that-killed-nearly-100-people-iran-2024-01-04/) responsibility on Thursday for two explosions (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-media-report-explosion-near-guards-commander-soleimanis-tomb-anniversary-2024-01-03/) in Iran that killed nearly 100 people and wounded scores at a memorial for top commander Qassem Soleimani who was killed in Iraq in 2020 by a U.S. drone. In a statement posted on its affiliate Telegram channels, the militant Sunni Muslim group said two IS members had detonated their explosive belts in the crowd which had gathered at the cemetery in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman on Wednesday for the anniversary of Soleimani's death.

Tehran earlier blamed the explosions on "terrorists" and vowed revenge for the bloodiest such attacks since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The twin blasts also wounded 284 people, including women and children."A very strong retaliation will be meted out to them by the hands of the soldiers of Soleimani," Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber told reporters in Kerman. Earlier, an unnamed source told the state news agency IRNA that the first explosion at the cemetery in Kerman, Soleimani's home town, "was the result of a suicide bomber's action".

The United Nations Security Council in a statement condemned Wednesday's "cowardly terrorist attack" in Kerman and sent its condolences to the victims' families and the Iranian government. State TV showed crowds gathered at dozen cities across Iran, including Kerman, chanting: "Death to Israel" and "Death to America".
They would say that, wouldn't they, regardless of who actually did that .
Iranian authorities have called for mass protests on Friday, when the funerals of the victims of the twin blasts will be held, state media reported. Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps described the attacks as a cowardly act "aimed at creating insecurity and seeking revenge against the nation's deep love and devotion to the Islamic Republic". The Guards commander in Kerman denied state media reports of a shooting in Kerman on Thursday.

In 2022 Islamic State claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a Shi'ite shrine in Iran which killed 15 people. Earlier attacks claimed by Islamic State include twin bombings in 2017 which targeted Iran's parliament and the tomb of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

[albatross]

Well, if anyone is fully knowledgeable about cowardly terrorist attacks it is both the perpetrators and target groups involved in this one.

[Gordon Brown]

Islamic State has claimed responsibility.

Crikey. “The enemy of my enemy” etc

Does that make Daesh the good guys tonight?

[GlobalNav]

Crikey. “The enemy of my enemy” etc

Does that make Daesh the good guys tonight?
Not unless murdering 100+ innocent civilians is what you want.

[ORAC]

Yesterday:

The Commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, Vice Admiral Charles B. Cooper II has stated that the Houthi in Yemen launched a surface suicide drone into the commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea today, in the first attack of its kind.

The drone reportedly exploded off the coast of Yemen without causing any damage or casualties

Cause of the explosion is not reported.

[melmothtw]

Not unless murdering 100+ innocent civilians is what you want.

They were attendees of a state-sponsored rally to commemorate the deceased leader of a proscribed terrorist organisation, not shoppers in a city centre.

[Ninthace]

So what were they guilty of?

[melmothtw]

So what were they guilty of?

Not being innocent civilians.

[Asturias56]

sounds like the Met.Police "loitering with an aggressive hijab"

[Toadstool]

Not being innocent civilians.

So you have evidence of them being something else? As much as I abhor the IRGC, civilians demonstrating support for Suleimani doesn’t make them justifiable targets. If we followed that logic, there would have been a lot more IRA supporting civilians killed during the troubles.

[Ninthace]

They were civilians and presenting no threat, no need to qualify it beyond that.

[melmothtw]

Not one to champion the Islamic State, but my sympathies are with the actual innocent civilians who have been the victims of Iran's terrorism over decades, rather than those who chose to march in support of that terrorism. Anyway, we digress.

[Ninthace]

As far as I am concerned, all victims of terrorism, are just that and it is odious to differentiate.
You may find their sympathies abhorrent, that is no reason for them to die. The western view of how the world should be is but one view. I had Palestinian relatives, now no longer with us, and their world view was very different to yours but just as sincerely held and, from their perspective, just as justified.

[melmothtw]

...their world view was very different to yours but just as sincerely held and, from their perspective, just as justified.

No need for us to have gone to war with the Nazis or Islamic State then, so long as their beliefs are sincerely held and justified.

[Ninthace]

No need for us to have gone to war with the Nazis or Islamic State then, so long as their beliefs are sincerely held and justified.
Simplistic in the extreme, no one deserves to die for what they think. It is what they do that matters.

[melmothtw]

Simplistic in the extreme, no one deserves to die for what they think. It is what they do that matters.

What they were doing was marching in support of a dead terrorist and a hostile state, but ok.

[Ninthace]

What they were doing was marching in support of a dead terrorist and a hostile state, but ok.
Hostile is a relative term. From their perspective, I suspect you would be seen as supporting a hostile state - do you deserve to die for it?
Qassem Soleimani was an officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. To the West. that makes him a terrorist leader, but to the Iranians he was a serving officer in their Armed Forces. Do they deserve to die for thinking that?

[Lonewolf_50]

So what were they guilty of? Suggest you ask the Islamic State that question.
Crikey. “The enemy of my enemy” etc
Does that make Daesh the good guys tonight? No, Islamic State have never been the good guys and this doesn't change that.
It's a multi polar world, and you could even call it a bit of a free for all.

[Ninthace]

Suggest you ask the Islamic State that question.
Just so, but they were not the people posting that they deserved it.
I think they have a difference of opinion with Iran over heirs and successors.
​​​

[melmothtw]

Just so, but they were not the people posting that they deserved it.
I think they have a difference of opinion with Iran over heirs and successors.
​​​

They were the people that literally did it.

[Ninthace]

They were the people that literally did it.
Indeed, but that is not the point. We were discussing the views expressed in posts #769, #771 et seq which rather imply that, even though you don't support them, you approve of what they did, or least do not find the killing of these particular civilians abhorrent.

[melmothtw]

Indeed, but that is not the point. We were discussing the views expressed in posts #769, #771 et seq which rather imply that, even though you don't support them, you approve of what they did, or least do not find the killing of these particular civilians abhorrent.

What I said was that the people commemorating a dead terrorist leader (as defined by the UK government, among others) were not "innocent civilians" in the same way that ordinary folks going about their daily business are innocent civilians. Anything else is just what you have inferred.

Have no idea what any of this has to do with military aviation, but hey ho.

[Lonewolf_50]

Have no idea what any of this has to do with military aviation, but hey ho. It is at least somewhat related to a previous military aviation operation. Nearly 100 people were killed in the blasts at a memorial service for military commander General Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in Iraq in 2020 by a U.S. drone. {snip} Deputy Interior Minister Majid Mirahmadi said: "Various individuals have been arrested in five cities in five provinces, who have supported this incident or been linked to it. Details will be announced in the next few hours", the state news agency reported.

Islamic State said on Thursday two of its members had detonated explosive belts in the crowd that had gathered for Soleimani's memorial in the southeastern city. I guess that Islamic state doesn't have the air assets they need to do something similar - thankfully, from my PoV - so they resort to a ground operation.

With that said, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq does have air assets. They are an Iran backed militia organization.
They made an attack within the last day. Armed drone targets US base in northern Iraq
Reuters | (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-drone-targets-us-base-northern-iraq-statement-2024-01-05/)January 5, 2024 (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-drone-targets-us-base-northern-iraq-statement-2024-01-05/)10:48 AM CST (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-drone-targets-us-base-northern-iraq-statement-2024-01-05/)
BAGHDAD, Jan 5 (Reuters) - An armed drone on Friday hit Iraq's al-Harir airbase, where U.S. and international forces are stationed, Iraqi Kurdistan's counter-terrorism service said. A service statement did not elaborate on whether the attack caused casualties or infrastructure damage.A group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it had attacked al-Harir military base by drone. Friday's action took place a day after the U.S. military carried out a retaliatory strike in Baghdad that killed a militia leader it blames for recent attacks on U.S. personnel, the Pentagon said.
This militia organization (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-islamic-resistance-iraq) is of interest ..Name: Al-Muqawama al-Islamiyah fi al-Iraq (the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, or IRI). An umbrella term used to describe the operations of all Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including strikes into Syria during the October 2023 conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Type of movement: Kinetic military operations, both national and transnational. Anti-U.S. targets in Iraq and Syria, stemming from the U.S. role in the Gaza crisis.

History: During the October 2023 conflict between Israel and Hamas, Iraqi muqawama (resistance) militias attacked U.S. troops based in Iraq and Syria. They have claimed the following attacks (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/node/18428) under the IRI brand:

October 17, 2023: drone attack on Harir Air Base in Iraqi Kurdistan. This attack was initially claimed by Tashkil al-Waritheen (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/node/17621); soon thereafter, a superseding claim was issued by the IRI brand and the Waritheen claim was removed in deference. One Qasef-2K drone was used in the strike.
Twenty subsequent attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria as of October 30, 2023.

Objectives:

To allow various Iraqi muqawama militias to launch attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria under one umbrella term.
The militias may see benefit in obscuring which exact groups are attacking U.S. bases.
Using a generic, no-logo brand is perhaps the ultimate extension of the “facade strategy” that Iran and its proxies have used since 2019 to avoid accountability for attacks on Americans.


To show unity behind attacks against U.S. interests during the Israel-Hamas conflict, essentially "reporting for duty" as one force. This strongly suggests that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) is corralling its many Iraqi "resistance" proxies, which otherwise tend to argue over local leadership.

Chain of command:

The balance of available evidence suggests that the IRGC-QF plays a role in coordinating the IRI brand. Iraqi armed groups tend to jealously guard their individual identities and the credit they derive (directly or via facade groups linked to them) from attacks, so their willingness to submerge these identities and even recant an individual group attack claim suggests that a higher power is coordinating them. Furthermore, co-branding with Tashkil al-Waritheen in the October 17 strike on Harir indicates a direct link to an IRGC-QF direct-operated group with close ties to Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/node/16716).
Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba has publicly affiliated itself with the IRI brand, releasing a threatening video on October 30, 2023, that includes footage of drone attacks originally published on IRI's Telegram channel. These videos purported to show the moment of launch for a number of drone attacks on U.S. positions. Nujaba did not actively claim to control IRI, though it is likely some of the attacks claimed by this facade group were carried out by teams controlled by Nujaba.
The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee (al-Haya al-Tansiqiya lil-Muqawama al-Iraqiya, or Tansiqiya for short).

[Asturias56]

"Have no idea what any of this has to do with military aviation, but hey ho"

I'd guess because it's military aviation that will be used to attack these deeply unpleasant people - no-one is going to send a n army and most of them live a ways from the sea

[Lonewolf_50]

I wonder if the Red Sea follies, and the Houthis, ought to have its own thread. Sure, Iran backs the Houthis, but Iran doesn't have a Red Sea seacoast.

India is in the game.
India intercepts hijacked Liberian-flagged vessel in Arabian Sea, navy says
Story by Krishn Kaushik

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Indian Navy commandos have boarded a hijacked Liberian-flagged vessel in the Arabian Sea and are now carrying out "sanitisation" operations, the navy said on Friday, without elaborating.
An Indian Navy warship intercepted the MV Lila Norfolk on Friday afternoon, less than a day after the navy received news that it had been hijacked off Somalia's coast in the North Arabian Sea.
At least 15 Indian crew members were on board the vessel, which was hijacked near Somalia's coast and the navy received information about it on Thursday evening, Indian news agency ANI, in which Reuters has a minority stake, reported earlier, citing military officials.

The warship INS Chennai was diverted and deployed to assist the vessel, the navy said earlier in the day, adding that a naval aircraft overflew the hijacked vessel on Friday and had established contact with it.
The Indian navy has increased its surveillance of the Arabian Sea after a recent spate of attacks in the region.

It said earlier this week that it had investigated a large number of fishing vessel and boarded vessels of interest in the region.

The hijacking of commercial ships and attempted hijackings by suspected pirates near the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea regions resumed in December after a six-year lull. Experts believe this is because naval forces led by the U.S. have diverted their attention to the Red Sea to thwart Houthi attacks.

"The sudden revival in ship hijacking and attacks can only be attributed to the pirates' willingness to take advantage of the fact that the focus of anti-piracy maritime forces has largely shifted from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea," Abhijit Singh, head of the Maritime Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi said.

"India plays the role of a net security provider in the entire Indian Ocean region. We will ensure that maritime trade in this region rises from the sea to the heights of the sky," Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said last month of the increased surveillance in the region.

India is not part of the U.S.-led Red Sea task force. I bolded that last bit, since I found it to be of interest.

[SWBKCB]

I wonder if the Red Sea follies, and the Houthis, ought to have its own thread. Sure, Iran backs the Houthis, but Iran doesn't have a Red Sea seacoast.

India is in the game.
India is not part of the U.S.-led Red Sea task force.

I bolded that last bit, since I found it to be of interest.

Maybe it's because the Indians aren't operating in the Red Sea?

[Lonewolf_50]

Maybe it's because the Indians aren't operating in the Red Sea? Yes, for the time being, they are not.

[ORAC]

On the Jan. 6, at approximately 9:30 a.m. (Sanaa time), an unmanned aerial vehicle launched from Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen was shot down in self-defense by USS LABOON (DDG 59) in international waters of the Southern Red Sea in the vicinity of multiple commercial vessels. There were no casualties or damage reported.https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x658/image_eefd46f9a7e859632d7bcfa3fbb9a284954118ea.png

[ORAC]

Hmmm, who?

But they do smoke a lot…

Video:

​​​​​​​https://x.com/osint613/status/1744086171263627504?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Mysterious blast in Iran: 16 vessels of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, including an IRGC spy ship aiding Houthi operations, sustained significant damage.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I am shocked, shocked that Iranian warships are spontaneously blowing up !

[Lonewolf_50]

Is the reference related to this explosion reported by BBC, or something else?
Iranian 'spy ship' damaged by explosion in Red Sea (bbc.com) (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56661069)An explosion has damaged an Iranian cargo ship anchored off Yemen's Red Sea coast that is allegedly used by the Revolutionary Guards for spying, Iran's foreign ministry has confirmed.
The blast that targeted the Saviz on Tuesday caused no casualties and was under investigation, a spokesman said.
"The vessel was a civilian ship stationed there to secure the region against pirates," he added.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said the explosion that hit the Saviz at about 06:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Tuesday caused only "minor damage".
"Technical investigations about the incident and its cause are going on, and our country will take all necessary measures about it through international organisations," he added. Mr Khatibzadeh said the Saviz was a "non-military ship", which was helping to "provide security along shipping lines and combat pirates".
"The ship was practically operating as Iran's logistical station... in the Red Sea, thus the ship's information and mission had been already announced to [the International Maritime Organization] officially." Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency cited unnamed sources as saying the explosion was caused by "limpet mines attached to the hull of the ship" (https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/04/07/2480410/iranian-ship-attacked-in-red-sea-sources).

[Ninthace]

Who knew limpets had mines?

[SASless]

Check with your RM or SBS fellows.....seems to me I seen a movie about some kayakers who raided a French Port and also Singapore Harbor after it was taken over by new management.

"Cockleshell Heroes" and "The Highest Honor" films were based upon those exploits as I recall.

The Italians had some very good luck with them too I am thinking.

Mr. Noriega had to forego leaving home by boat because of those nasty Limpet critters it is said.

[Ninthace]

Makes you wonder what them limpets had been eating.

[BEagle]

'The Sea Wolves' is another great movie featuring a daring raid on enemy shipping!

[DogTailRed2]

'The Sea Wolves' is another great movie featuring a daring raid on enemy shipping!
Wasn't that based on a true story where some old special forces types stole several ships from under the noses of the Germans during WW"?

[Lonewolf_50]

The Italians had some very good luck with them too I am thinking. They named a class of warships after De La Penne. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durand_de_la_Penne-class_destroyer)
It has a flight deck on the back, so it's aviation related, yes?

[212man]

They named a class of warships after De La Penne. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durand_de_la_Penne-class_destroyer)
It has a flight deck on the back, so it's aviation related, yes?
also known as the bow…..

[artee]

Who knew limpets had mines?
Undersea mining shouldn't be allowed, even by limpets.

[T28B]

As neither Mod nor Admin
also known as the bow…..
I think you refer to the stern. The bow is the front. ;)
(Or did they change that while I wasn't looking?)

[ORAC]

In RAF terms, the blunt end as opposed to the sharp end.

[ORAC]

https://www.navylookout.com/royal-navy-deploys-hms-richmond-to-bolster-uk-naval-presence-in-the-gulf-region/

Royal Navy deploys HMS Richmond to bolster UK naval presence in the Gulf region

In a statement to Parliament (https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2024-01-08/hlws164), the Secretary of State has confirmed that HMS Richmond is heading to the Gulf region in response to the serious maritime security situation in the Red Sea.

Type 23 frigate HMS Richmond sailed from Plymouth on Friday, the first naval movement of the year from Devonport Naval Base. Although primarily an Anti-Submarine platform, she is well-equipped to protect merchant shipping from air and surface threats and armed with 32 Sea Ceptor missiles and a Wildcat helicopter she but lacks land-attack capability.

HMS Richmond was the first frigate to have the PGMU engine upgrade which has performed reliably and the ship participated in the 50,000nm, 7-month 2021 Carrier Strike Deployment to the Pacific.

The Minister said: “We are working with allies and partners to protect freedom of navigation and remain committed to holding malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks. The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives and commercial shipping in these critical waterways.

“As you would expect, while planning is underway for a range of scenarios, no decisions have been made and we continue to pursue all diplomatic routes”.

Subsequently, Grant Shapps has said HMS Richmond is going to replace either HMS Diamond or HMS Lancaster so there is “not an escalation”. It is unclear which vessel will be replaced.

HMS Diamond has not had the best mechanical reliability track record but only sailed for the Gulf on 22nd November 2023. HMS Lancaster is an old ship but when she left the UK in August 2022 it was announced (https://www.navylookout.com/hms-lancaster-sails-for-three-years-forward-deployed-in-the-gulf/) she would be permanently based in the Gulf for 3 years.

[ORAC]

The RN has confirmed HMS Richmond deployed to Red Sea/Gulf to "stand in" for HMS Diamond and HMS Lancaster when either vessel needs to break off patrols for re-supply or maintenance.

Effectively escort numbers in the Middle East region are being increased to three in order to maintain two at sea.

[megan]

In RAF terms, the blunt end as opposed to the sharp endAnd they get it wrong :p For ship hydrodynamics the blunt end is the bow, the sharp end the stern, same as your aeroplane thingies.

[ORAC]

US and UK 'shoot down' barrage of Houthi airstrikes in Red Sea

Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired one of their largest barrage of drones and missiles targeting shipping in the Red Sea, forcing the American and British navies to shoot down the projectiles in a major engagement, authorities said on Wednesday.

No damage or injuries were immediately apparent.

The assault happened off the Yemeni port cities of Hodeida and Mokha, according to the private intelligence firm Ambrey. In the Hodeida incident, Ambrey said ships described over radio seeing missiles and drones, with US-allied warships in the area urging “vessels to proceed at maximum speed”.

Off Mokha, ships saw missiles fired, a drone in the air and small vessels trailing them, Ambrey said early on Wednesday. The British military’s United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations also acknowledged the incident off Hodeida.

The US military’s Central Command (Centcom) said the “complex attack” launched by the Houthis included bomb-carrying drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and one anti-ship ballistic missile.

It said 18 drones, two cruise missiles and the anti-ship missile were downed by F-18s from the USS Eisenhower, as well as by American Arleigh Burke-class destroyers the USS Gravely, the USS Laboon and the USS Mason, as well as the UK’s HMS Diamond.

https://x.com/centcom/status/1744898491917492690?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Houthi Attack on International Shipping

On Jan. 9, at approximately 9:15 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthis launched a complex attack of Iranian designed one-way attack UAVs (OWA UAVs), anti-ship cruise missiles, and an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Southern Red Sea, towards international shipping lanes where dozens of merchant vessels were transiting.

Eighteen OWA UAVs, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by a combined effort of F/A-18s from USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), USS Gravely (DDG 107), USS Laboon (DDG 58), USS Mason (DDG 87), and the United Kingdom’s HMS Diamond (D34). This is the 26th Houthi attack on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea since Nov. 19. There were no injuries or damage reported.

On Jan. 3, 14 countries, including the U.S, issued a joint statement stating, "The Houthis will bear the responsibility for the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, or the free flow of commerce in the region's critical waterways."https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x659/image_e223c244d9696fea2bf416ada0decf0a32a9e62b.png
​​​​​​​

[DogTailRed2]

US and UK warships. Where is the rest of NATO? Or does no one else have an interest in the region?

[ORAC]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1200/image_dcff8dc8392679e516e2373502d91968706426d3.jpeg

[ORAC]

Financial Times: UK hints at imminent military action against Houthis over Red Sea attacks

John Paul Rathbone in London

UK defence secretary Grant Shapps has hinted that military retaliation against the Houthis could be imminent, as he accused Iran of helping the Yemen-based militant group target ships in the Red Sea.

Shapps said on Wednesday that he was in regular contact with Saudi Arabia and the UK’s other regional partners and “we are all agreed” that the Houthi attacks “cannot continue, and we won’t allow this to continue. So watch this space.”

He did not specify what form the retaliation could take but said “what happened last night”, when the Houthis launched their largest drone and missile attack on Red Sea shipping on Tuesday, changed the situation “and you can reach the natural conclusions upon that.”

[Ninthace]

US and UK warships. Where is the rest of NATO? Or does no one else have an interest in the region?
Who is missing? Isn’t not the Languedoc In the area? The Germans are examining options according to Defense News. Is this a NATO operation anyway? Certainly non NATO navies are also actively cooperating are they not?

[DogTailRed2]

Who is missing? Isn’t not the Languedoc In the area? The Germans are examining options according to Defense News. Is this a NATO operation anyway? Certainly non NATO navies are also actively cooperating are they not?
Maybe any action should be reported as `Coalition Forces` ? I always feel that using USA, UK or whoever just singles out that country for retaliation.

[Andy_S]

Shapps said on Wednesday that he was in regular contact with Saudi Arabia and the UK’s other regional partners and “we are all agreed” that the Houthi attacks “cannot continue, and we won’t allow this to continue. So watch this space.”

What, realistically, can be done? These drones and missiles won't have originated from a fixed location. Presumably someone would have launched them and left the area pretty quickly. How can you combat an enemy that is dispersed and mobile?

[Asturias56]

and Yemen is a bloody rough country terrain wise................

[Bergerie1]

I doubt that Shapps knows that.

[DogTailRed2]

What, realistically, can be done? These drones and missiles won't have originated from a fixed location. Presumably someone would have launched them and left the area pretty quickly. How can you combat an enemy that is dispersed and mobile?
Bomb something and hope your popularity increases in the polls?

[SASless]

How many ways are there to "watch" for such events and combine all source intel to see where the rats scurried off to seeking a hiding spot afterwards and deal with them as has been going on with the Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian Guards of late?

They also have to move the weapons about and set them up prior to launch which also affords some opportunities to be found out.

Remember the Iraqi use of Scud missiles and what resources were devoted to dealing with them.

It is not easy, the area is large, ground forces would have a hard time operating there without being compromised.

When several Big Brothers start snooping it gets hard to hide and a few mistakes can become quite injurious to one's health and well being.

[jolihokistix]

Also Iran has two items for the Houthis on the agenda there.
1. Fire off what you've got and waste the enemy's ammunition in the process.
2. Allow us to monitor their responses and study how they work.

By holding off, though, and if possible in the meantime actually contacting the Houthis, you can make them feel human and some among them may even see the rest of the world as human like them. Eventually they will have to release the ship that they pirated, but it will have to be in a spirit of willingness and generosity. Do we have any Lawrences these days?

(They will have got some kind of message when they lost those three boats the other day, though. But it would also have given the strident ones an ego boost.)

[ORAC]

Boarding off Oman…

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/642x873/image_60eaf62a247b04d67003e9ee9c3e5a1accc515ef.png

[ORAC]

Perhaps coincidentally, or not….

https://x.com/matttttt187/status/1745255306362343789?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


IRAN – The IRGC Areospace Forces started today military exercise in the Chabahar region, located on the Gulf of Oman

Missile launches as well air-defense systems activity has been reported.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Interesting.

If they’re just escorting French ships, what is he doing in charge of the EU task force and who are they escorting?

Grauniad:

French military now escorting French ships through Red Sea - naval commander

French naval forces are accompanying ships with French interests through the Red Sea region, the country’s top naval commander in the area said on Thursday, adding that Paris’ current mandate did not include striking Houthi rebels directly.….

Speaking to the media, Reuters reports R Adm Emmanuel Slaars, joint commander of French forces in the region, said France was working closely with the US-led Prosperity Guardian mission in the area by exchanging information and carrying out patrols, but said command of French forces remained entirely under Paris’ control.

“The French operation consists of on the one hand patrolling the maritime zones where the Houthis operate to stop them,” Slaars said. “These patrols are in coordination with the Prosperity Guardian operation,” he said.

“On the other hand, we regularly escort French-flagged ships or with French interests in the Red Sea. We accompany them all along their crossing.”

Slaars, who also heads the EU’s mission of nine countries operating in the strait of Hormuz, said there was always a need for more military assets in the region, although France did not intend to deploy more for now.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/archer83able/status/1745440437597302825?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Iranian Navy, (not IRGC Navy), has officially announced their seizure of the ST NIKOLAS tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

In the past, the majority, (if not all), vessel capture operations by Iran were conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

The ST NIKOLAS (9524475); is carrying Iraqi oil.

Formerly known as the SUEZ RAJAN; she was previously seized by the US government for having transported a million barrels of Iranian oil in connection to a US company.

The owners of NIKOLAS, Empire Navigation, say the vessel has 19 crew members: 18 Filipino and 1 Greek (presumably the captain) - though there are also reports one holds US nationality.

[Lonewolf_50]

Feels like the 1980's again, doesn't it? (That's not necessarily a good thing).

[Asturias56]

This latest incident is different from the others - the BBC radio was saying that Iran has claimed its a legal issue - maybe someone hasn't been paying the Iranians for the oil they were transporting last time around?Iran has seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, state media reports.

Armed men wearing masks have reportedly boarded the vessel St Nikolas, close to the Omani port of Sohar, and ordered it to sail to an Iranian port. It is unclear why the tanker has been targeted. The St Nikolas was in transit between the Iraqi port of Basra and its intended destination in Turkey. UK Maritime Trade Operations said on Thursday it had received a report that four to five "unauthorised persons", reportedly wearing "military style black uniforms with black masks", had boarded the ship at 03:30 GMT. They added that communications with the vessel had been lost and that the authorities were investigating.

Iranian state media quoted the army as describing the vessel as being American. It is unclear why as the tanker is Greek-owned.

The company that manages it, Empire Navigation, said it was loaded with 145,000 tonnes of crude oil and was carrying 18 Filipinos and one Greek person as crew.

The St Nikolas was seized in April by the US under its previous name, the Suez Rajan, as part of sanctions enforcement against Iran. Suez Rajan Limited, which formerly chartered the boat, later pleaded guilty to conspiring to violate sanctions by covertly selling and transporting oil abroad on behalf of Iran.

This latest act appears to be separate from attacks carried out by Houthi rebels from Yemen in the Red Sea.

[DogTailRed2]

Lots of excited news readers on TV tonight. Looks like the proverbial is about to hit the fan somewhere.

[T28B]

More details here: the airstrikes on Houthi (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/656888-uk-usa-aircraft-start-striking-targets-yemen.html)

[Lonewolf_50]

I wonder if tankers in that region would begin to stay in Omani territorial waters as they head out of the Persian Gulf and into the Indian Ocean, making Iranian attempts at intercept possibly run afoul of the Omanis.

Yes, it's not some kind of "optimized" sailing protocol, but neither is getting pulled over by the Iranians. :p

[SASless]

I found this article to contain some useful information re navigation within the Straits of Hormuz area and the laws that pertain in general.


https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00908320.2022.2096158

[SASless]

The seized ship was Greek owned, carrying Iraqi Oil, was seized outside Iranian territorial waters......and the local rags (papers) are claiming it to be American.

That seems a bit over the top.

Was the oil stolen from Iraq and was bound for the USA?

Where does Iran get the legal authority for that?

[SWBKCB]

Where did America get the legal authority to seize the ship in the first place?

The Navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran seized an American oil tanker in the waters of the Gulf of Oman in accordance with a court order,” the state-run IRNA news agency said.

“After the theft of Iranian oil by the United States last year, St Nikolas tanker was seized by Iran’s Navy”, the navy said, as cited by the Iranian news agency Fars.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/iran-navy-says-seized-oil-tanker-off-oman-state-media-2

[SASless]

In case you missed this link three posts before yours in the JB thread.

https://www.justice.gov/nsd/case/united-states-v-empire-navigation-inc-and-suez-rajan-limited


You can view the various Court Documents at that linked source.

Try this one and read the document you will find there.

https://www.justice.gov/d9/2023-12/23-cr-00088_statement_of_offense_-_suez_rajan_508.pdf

That should answer the question.

[SWBKCB]

So both seizures in response to legal processes in the respective countries?

[Asturias56]

Seems so - a lawyers benefit by the sound of it

[Asturias56]

"Where does Iran get the legal authority for that?" - they probably passed a law saying they could - like the US

[T28B]

We seem to have gotten beyond the maritime/naval/military aspect of this, so I'd suggest taking the legalese discussion to Jet Blast.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/realairpower1/status/1746131349428154423?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Iran and Russia have reached an agreement over the procurement of Sukhoi Su-35SEs. Russia will now supply the 25 Su-35SEs originally meant for Egypt to Iran.

The IRIAF is expected to use these new Flankers to replace its ageing Tomcats.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x809/image_b71966ec319216c547e453a906dc7c8c8279c1e8.png
​​​​​​​

[DogTailRed2]

US owned ship hit.
Yemen live updates: Houthi missile hits US-owned ship off Yemen coast - US officials - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67978584)

[ORAC]

Reference the above - Press Release b6 CENTCOM:

“On Jan. 15 at approximately 4 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and struck the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned and operated container ship. The ship has reported no injuries or significant damage and is continuing its journey.

Earlier in the day, at approximately 2 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Forces detected an anti-ship ballistic missile fired toward the Southern Red Sea commercial shipping lanes. The missile failed in flight and impacted on land in Yemen. There were no injuries or damage reported.”

[ORAC]

Thinks might be about to get interesting….


According to U.S. Officials, an SRBM attack today, aimed at the U.S. Consulate in Erbil, northern Iraq, was launched directly by the IRGC from within Iran…...

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1747018252851564739?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

https://x.com/unitedw96613887/status/1502988461539790853?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​https://x.com/trendingnewsonx/status/1747036203281743964?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​https://x.com/brentdsadler/status/1747019705284485422?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[ORAC]

According to U.S. Defense Officials, the 2 Navy SEALs who were lost overboard while raiding a fishing boat off tSomalia on Thursday were searching for weapons parts for Iranian SRBMs, including warheads, which, according to intelligence sources, are being provided by the IRGC.

Weapons parts were found aboard the vessel and confiscated and the boat was then sunk. The 12 crewmembers have been taken into custody.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1747003036877164883?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Additional Footage claimed to show the Impact of at least 4 Ballistic Missiles launched by the Iranian-Backed Groups towards the U.S. Consulate and International Airport within the City of Erbil in Northern Iraq.

[ORAC]

Reference post #841 and the lost SEALs…

https://x.com/navylookout/status/1747217295288516818?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


On 11 January 🇺🇸US Navy SEALs operating from USS Lewis B Puller executed a complex boarding of a dhow near the coast of Somalia in international waters supplying 🇮🇷Iranian-made weapons to the Houthis.

Items sized included propulsion, guidance and warhead components for medium-range ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1325x683/image_0ed7aca9814ecf4ad852c89ca45ff4b7df722ae3.png
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x398/image_da599ea370024d6dbd9024cb96e0bf084f5ae152.png

​​​​​​​

[havoc]

Pakistan condemns attack by Iran that kills 2 children | AP News (https://apnews.com/article/iran-iraq-militant-bases-attack-05c7530d66fb05dd6f2868527003ba2d?user_email=fe0f1676189776d9 05835d988a755aa5908f8de70abbee5bfe0677b56b1186f3&utm_medium=Afternoon_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_campaign=AfternoonWire_Jan16_2024&utm_term=Afternoon%20Wire)Iran attacks alleged militant bases in Pakistan; Islamabad says ‘unprovoked’ strikes kill 2 children https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/default/68372c8/2147483647/strip/true/crop/4500x2995+0+2/resize/320x213!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2F93%2Fb4%2F1d09d8743c1 3050ea0b33aed3397%2F5ee05d7cb8304e00bbbf4f1aef8b9430
This is a locator map for Pakistan with its capital, Islamabad, and the Kashmir region. (AP Photo)

BY JON GAMBRELL (https://apnews.com/author/jon-gambrell) AND MUNIR AHMED | Updated 2:04 PM MST, January 16, 2024

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Iran launched attacks Tuesday in Pakistan targeting what it described as bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl, potentially further raising tensions in a Middle East already roiled by Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip (https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-16-2024-d27350609d337dc417e9d7861be3de74). Pakistan said the strikes killed two children and wounded three others in an assault it described as an “unprovoked violation” of its airspace.

Confusion followed the announcement from Iran as state media reports on it soon disappeared. However, the attack inside of nuclear-armed Pakistan by Iran threatens the relations between the two countries, which long have eyed each other with suspicion while maintaining diplomatic relations.

The attack also follows Iranian strikes on Iraq and Syria (https://apnews.com/article/iraq-syria-iran-israel-strike-erbil-consulate-31e23813213d3069bc39b94e6e422434) less than a day earlier, as Tehran lashes out following a dual suicide bombing this month claimed by the Sunni militant group Islamic State that killed over 90 people (https://apnews.com/article/iran-kerman-bombing-qassem-soleimani-mideast-tensions-3503bdbaa3d0815996e4010224bd5dcc).

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency and state television had said that missiles and drones were used in the strikes in Pakistan. Press TV, the English-language arm of Iranian state television, attributed the attack to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Jaish al-Adl, or the “Army of Justice,” is a Sunni militant group founded in 2012 which largely operates across the border in Pakistan. The militants have claimed bombings and kidnapped Iranian border police in the past.

Iran has fought in border areas against the militants, but a missile-and-drone attack on Pakistan is unprecedented for Iran. Iranian reports described the strikes as happening in the mountains of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded rebuke of the strikes.

“Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran which resulted in death of two innocent children while injuring three girls,” the statement read. “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”[/h2]

[ORAC]

Iran just bombed Pakistan, a nuclear state. That’s the third country Iran has bombed in the past 24 hours.…

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1414x2000/image_fb41035ba0a4be7db0430a28c3fbb9bc97d14820.png

[admikar]

Iran just bombed Pakistan, a nuclear state. That’s the third country Iran has bombed in the past 24 hours.…
How do we know it wasn't provoked?
Pakistan isn't exactly a beacon of democracy and has been known to export/harbour some nasty things in the past.

[ORAC]

According to U.S. defense officials, renewed strikes were carried out this morning targeting at least 4 Anti-Ship ASM batteries in western Yemen.

The strikes were in response to continuing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

[ORAC]

According to Iranian sources, the 4 missiles launched by the IRGC towards ISIS Positions near the Aleppo in Syria last night, were their first use of the “Kheibar Shekan” IRBM.

The “Kheibar Shekan” is a 3rd generation solid fuel IRBM with a range of over 900 Miles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kheibar_Shekan

[DogTailRed2]

How do we know it wasn't provoked?
Pakistan isn't exactly a beacon of democracy and has been known to export/harbour some nasty things in the past.
Because Iran isn't bitching about it?

[Lonewolf_50]

What Iran is doing seems to me a lot like the Tomahawk strikes President Clinton ordered into Afghanistan back in about 1998 which targeted a known terrorist group, Al Qaeda, who had blown up two American Embassies in Africa: Kenya and Tanzania. (It blew some stuff and people up but sadly didn't get the leadership).

The big difference to me is that Iran is taking on a greater risk in so doing because, unlike Afghanistan then ...
1. Pakistan, for all of their faults, is an organized nation with a standing military complete with modern hardware.
2. Pakistan has nukes.
3. Pakistan has a border with Iran.

Speculation follows:
Pakistan's government may not give a hoot about certain parties being attacked by Iran's missiles, as Pakistan is running into their own problems with terrorist groups of late. With that considered, Pakistan's government must be seen to be outraged by Iran launching missiles into their territory and blowing stuff and people up.
Can't blame Pakistan for that.
(I'd love to be a party to whatever back channel conversation is going on at the moment between Iranian and Pakistani officials. I don't doubt that these are interesting conversations).

[RatherBeFlying]

It's a nasty neighborhood. Israel and the US have the habit of striking targets in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Pakistan. Turkiye strikes targets in Syria and Iraq. Iran and the Houthis have joined the party.

[Asturias56]

The Afghans and the Iranians also have border/ terrorist issues - but then everyone has in that part of the world

[rattman]

IRGC general just got himself deaded on the Iran / Pakistan border
https://twitter.com/SouthAsiaIndex/status/1747716520585965599

[Lonewolf_50]

It's a tough business that he's in.
Coincidence or a payback? Would be interesting to find out.

[ORAC]

Video of TV report.https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1747736625759633902?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry announces:

“Pakistan reserves the right to respond to the Iranian attacks.”

[rattman]

Theres new reports that Pakistan has struck BLF(Balouchastan liberation force) targets in iran

They are still only telegrams or a unknown twitters reporting

And confirmed
https://twitter.com/PakArmyAR/status/1747798343101935723

https://twitter.com/PakArmyAR/status/1747798343101935723

[ORAC]

Sky reporting that Pakistan has:

Withdrawn its ambassador in Teheran
Expelled the Iranian ambassador
conducted retaliatory strikes across the border in Iran.

The ball now being back in Iran”s court…..

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-recalls-ambassador-iran-after-airspace-violation-2024-01-17/

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-expels-iran-ambassador-after-air-strike-recalls-envoy-from-tehran-4879977

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/18/pakistan-launches-precise-military-strikes-on-iran-in-response-to-bombing

[ORAC]

Meanwhile, the USA has conducted a series of Tomahawk missile attacks against 14 Houthi sites where missiles were identified as being prepared for launch.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68014127

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3648253/uscentcom-strikes-houthi-terrorist-missile-launchers/

[Asturias56]

The Pakistan business shows the dangers of Iran's scheme to use proxies - you can't always control them and the risk is that you get hit. And Pakistan are experts at stirring up trouble across borders as well - they kept the Taliban pot simmering for years - and they can easily do the same thing to the Iranians

[ORAC]

Content amended for brevity and clarity.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1748702013620113868?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The leadership within CENTCOM, as well as other Defense Officials have reportedly been urging the White House to allow them to go “gloves-off” in order to halt any further threat by the Houthi to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

According to officials, several options have been presented to President Biden which he has continually denied, these include:

A larger-scale air campaign, involving the Air Force, over western Yemen to destroy any Houthi offensive capability,
An amphibious operation against several ports, including Hodeidah, in western Yemen.
Limited strikes on targets within Iran to “send a message” about further aid and support to the Houthis.

[SWBKCB]

Sky reporting that Pakistan has:

Withdrawn its ambassador in Teheran
Expelled the Iranian ambassador
conducted retaliatory strikes across the border in Iran.

The ball now being back in Iran”s court…..

Pakistan and Iran have restored diplomatic ties according to the caretaker prime minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar's office. It comes after both countries exchanged drone and missile strikes on militant bases on each other's territory. As a result of the tit-for-tat attacks Iran and Pakistan withdrew their ambassadors from the respective capitals. Both ambassadors are now expected to return to their posts following talks.

There has been no immediate comment from Iran on the talks. Earlier on Friday, Pakistan expressed its willingness to work with Iran on "all issues" following a call between their foreign ministers. "Foreign Minister Jilani expressed Pakistan's readiness to work with Iran on all issues based on spirit of mutual trust and cooperation," the Pakistan foreign ministry said. "They also agreed to de-escalate the situation. The return of ambassadors of the two countries to their respective capitals was also discussed."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68033426

[ORAC]

https://x.com/rashidmaarouf/status/1748824539016970491?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


A private source confirms the killing of a senior Houthi leader whose name was not mentioned.

He was killed along with two Iranian leaders who were experts in the field of missiles, as a result of an American raid on a military base in Al-Bayda Governorate, the Shaab Al-Makhdara area at exactly ⁦‪8:30‬⁩ pm, Sanaa time.

​​​​​​​The raid was carried out via a drone targeting a missile launch pad that was ready to be launched.

[ORAC]

Reports are that over 40 missiles were fired which overwhelmed the Patriot system with around 17 impacting the base.
https://x.com/centcom/status/1748831942299246640?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


At approximately 6:30 p.m. (Baghdad time) time Jan. 20, multiple ballistic missiles and rockets were launched by Iranian-backed militants in Western Iraq targeting al-Assad Airbase.

Most of the missiles were intercepted by the base’s air defense systems while others impacted on the base. Damage assessments are ongoing.

A number of U.S. personnel are undergoing evaluation for traumatic brain injuries. At least one Iraqi service member was wounded.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1748859856939835657?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Biden Administration has reportedly now Agreed with U.S. Defense Officials of the need for a Large-Scale Sustained Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen, following 10 Days of Missile and Airstrikes which have Failed to End the Houthi’s Attacks on Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; Officials have stated that they do not expect for the Operation to Drag-On for Years like previous Wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, but that they will not have a End Date set for the Operation.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/rFqa9DWv77

[DogTailRed2]

The Biden Administration has reportedly now Agreed with U.S. Defense Officials of the need for a Large-Scale Sustained Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen, following 10 Days of Missile and Airstrikes which have Failed to End the Houthi’s Attacks on Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; Officials have stated that they do not expect for the Operation to Drag-On for Years like previous Wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, but that they will not have a End Date set for the Operation.

https://t.co/rFqa9DWv77
Another 10 year war with lots of casualties that ends up with the usual void of control in the area allowing yet more factions to rush in?

[ORAC]

It’s already a void….

[ex-fast-jets]

For holidays, I would think that the whole area is now an "avoid".

So, apart from a lack of Suez revenue for Egypt, what is this all doing to vacations in UAE, Oman, Sharm El-Sheikh, and any other hot and sunny areas in that region? I imagine Israel and Jordan are already off the agenda, if not others - and transit flights through Qatar etc?? Cruise ships transiting the Suez? I doubt it!!

There surely must be a fairly major revenue reduction for many, but I have yet to see any comment from Egypt, Bahrein, UAE etc etc.

Similarly, the trade from India, China, Pakistan, Malaysia etc must have been adversely affected by the need now to transit around the Cape - but again, very little or no comment or support from them that I have seen.

It all seems to be left to the "Great Satan" with some superficial support - and some actual military support from the UK. If Trump follows up his criticism of European NATO nations for not spending enough on defence, and relying on the USA to defend their countries, then I could see that policy going a little further - if he gets in.

[Lonewolf_50]

A private source confirms the killing of a senior Houthi leader whose name was not mentioned.

He was killed along with two Iranian leaders who were experts in the field of missiles, as a result of an American raid on a military base in Al-Bayda Governorate, the Shaab Al-Makhdara area at exactly ⁦‪8:30‬⁩ pm, Sanaa time.

The raid was carried out via a drone targeting a missile launch pad that was ready to be launched. I am reminded of a TST.
The Biden Administration has reportedly now Agreed with U.S. Defense Officials of the need for a Large-Scale Sustained Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen, following 10 Days of Missile and Airstrikes which have Failed to End the Houthi’s Attacks on Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; Officials have stated that they do not expect for the Operation to Drag-On for Years like previous Wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, but that they will not have a End Date set for the Operation. I'd like to email each of them a dollar, so that they can buy a clue. :p

[Big Pistons Forever]

There seems to be consistent theme where all the troublemaker ME countries blame the “Great Satan” for everything. Maybe it is time for the US to leave the Red Sea and let the locals sort out their lake. It’s not like there are no alternatives to the Suez Canal. Yes going around the Cape adds time and money but the shipping companies have already adapted.

[Lonewolf_50]

There seems to be consistent theme where all the troublemaker ME countries blame the “Great Satan” for everything. Maybe it is time for the US to leave the Red Sea and let the locals sort out their lake. It’s not like there are no alternatives to the Suez Canal. Yes going around the Cape adds time and money but the shipping companies have already adapted. There is a particular Kingdom, and a few others like Egypt, who hold that their relationship with the US is beneficial, regardless of various factions within who may abjure the Great Satan.
It's not as simple as you tried to make it.

[Big Pistons Forever]

There is a particular Kingdom, and a few others like Egypt, who hold that their relationship with the US is beneficial, regardless of various factions within who may abjure the Great Satan.
It's not as simple as you tried to make it.

All of the ME countries that have most directly and severely been effected by the Houthi attacks on shipping have declined to take any role in protecting shipping. They all have universally severely criticized the US for supporting Israel. So I actually think it is that simple.

In any case the threat is now sophisticated Iran supplied anti ship missiles. USN ship self defence is pretty good but it is not perfect. The nightmare scenario is a direct hit with a hundred dead American sailors. A major regional conflict is then inevitable.

[Lonewolf_50]

I actually think it is that simple. Then you need to do some re thinking.
The nightmare scenario is a direct hit with a hundred dead American sailors. A major regional conflict is then inevitable. No, it is not.
Oddly enough, the USS Cole suicide attack in Yemen didn't cause a major regional conflict.
While I personally find the scenario you describe as troubling (career USN man of course I do) it does not by itself result in a war.
See USS Stark as another example, or USS Samuel B Roberts.
I do agree that point defense cannot be assumed to be perfect.

Our politicians, going back to USS Pueblo at the very least, some of the recon flights over Russian and China in the 1950's that never came back, USS Liberty, or the Beirut Marine Barracks ... have been consistently willing to send our folks into harms way and then flounder about when some of them get shot at, attacked, or in Pubelo's case, boarded/captured.

I don't see that mentality in Washington changing any time soon either.
If a missile gets through that will suck, but it will not necessarily start a major regional war.

In relevant news: A U.S. military base in Iraq was attacked when Iranian-backed militants launched ballistic missiles and rockets at the Al-Asad Airbase near Baghdad. Most of the missiles were intercepted but some did hit the base, causing mostly minor injuries. That isn't starting a regional war either.
(Comment on the lazy journo: "near Baghdad" is an odd descriptor. It's about a hundred miles to the west).

[Big Pistons Forever]

The first step in the Operational Planning Process is selecting the aim. Obviously the aim must be realistic and achievable. So what is the aim of Prosperity Guardian ? If it is make the Red Sea transits safe then I don’t see how fleet units soaking up Houthi missiles is going to achieve that aim. Going after the shooters as has already been shown, is an exercise in whack a mole so there is no chance of a decisive blow.

Iran is continuing to supply the Houthi’s with anti ship munitions, so the threat isn’t going away, therefore I am struggling to see how this operation directly furthers the national security interests of the USA.

Ultimately the US won’t fix the ME, the inhabitants have to. I see this as a way to use a strategic disengagement to start forcing the ME countries to start being part of the solution not just part of the problem.

I get how the above may sound naive, but after 50 years of robust American diplomatic, economic and military engagement, we seem to be in an even worse place, Maybe it is time for a different tack. The beauty of Naval disengagement is there are no boots on the ground, and re-engagement in force is always possible given the self contained and self sustaining nature of a Naval Task Group. In the meantime the Houthi’s don’t have the convent presence of the Great Satan to use to mobilize their base.

[DogTailRed2]

US and UK launch fresh strikes on Houthis - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68064422)

[Lonewolf_50]

The first step in the Operational Planning Process is selecting the aim. Obviously the aim must be realistic and achievable. So what is the aim of Prosperity Guardian ? If it is make the Red Sea transits safe then I don’t see how fleet units soaking up Houthi missiles is going to achieve that aim. Going after the shooters as has already been shown, is an exercise in whack a mole so there is no chance of a decisive blow. Go back to the 1980's. For how long was the reflagging of tankers in the Persian Gulf undertaken? Your short attention span is noted.
Iran is continuing to supply the Houthi’s with anti ship munitions, so the threat isn’t going away, therefore I am struggling to see how this operation directly furthers the national security interests of the USA. To be seen to be doing something is the sort of thing politicians do all of the time. A goodly number of my operational experiences were directly related to that. At the moment, this operation has moved from "presence" to active operations. Not sure how long that will last. (And your point on its limitations is not disagreed).
Ultimately the US won’t fix the ME, the inhabitants have to. I see this as a way to use a strategic disengagement to start forcing the ME countries to start being part of the solution not just part of the problem.
Nothing new under the sun, then. It just happens to be Tuesday.
I get how the above may sound naive, but after 50 years of robust American diplomatic, economic and military engagement, we seem to be in an even worse place
But we are not. The ME is in a different place.
The Abraham accords are (or were) very close to being worked out. 50 years ago that was not the case. Then again, 50 years ago the Islamic Republic if Iran didn't exist.
Fifty years ago, Egypt and Israel were still negotiating the end of the 1973 war. The US (and Israel's) relationships with the largest nation (population wise) in the middle east, Egypt, are both substantially better. Israel has formal relations with Jordan. The state of play among the various entities on the Arabian peninsula have all undergone change. The US has major base in Qatar. That wasn't true 50 years ago either.
Maybe it is time for a different tack. Nice general "we must do something" complaint.
Your suggestions for the actionable suggestions are doubtless welcome in Foggy Bottom.
Mail it to them. I am sure you can find the street address for the US Department of State easily enough.
The beauty of Naval disengagement is there are no boots on the ground, and re-engagement in force is always possible given the self contained and self sustaining nature of a Naval Task Group. Do not disagree, in principle.
In the meantime the Houthi’s don’t have the convent presence of the Great Satan to use to mobilize their base.
Sadly, your forgot about the Information War.
Disengagement ~ at this point ~ gives the Houthis some kid of bragging rights. The Propaganda war NEVER ends, and you, sir, are a target, as am I.
You have been hit.
This takes us back to:
Must be seen to be doing something.
This will go on for a while longer.
EDIT: from red dog's post and link:
It added: "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea, but let us reiterate our warning to Houthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world's most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."This is the eighth strike by the US against Houthi targets in Yemen. It is the second joint operation with the UK, after joint strikes were carried out on 11 January. I remember operation Provide Comfort. It had an aim, and it was sort of fulfilled.
I remember Operation Sharp Guard. It had an aim, to stop the flow of arms into Former Yugoslavia, but was it successful?
Somewhat, from a limited maritime perspective.
I remember Operation Iraqi Freedom. It had a variety of aims, and one of them was achieved.
Saddam was replaced.
Some of the other aims? Not so much.
I remember Operation HOA. (Horn of Africa). (Or JTF HOA as we called it) As far as I know, it is still ongoing, two decades later.

That you believe there to be some simple "solution" is indeed naive. It's a mess, all seven days of the week.
As to a general conflagration, this, my friend, has me worried a bit more.Two Hezbollah fighters killed by Israeli drone in LebanonBEIRUT, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Two Hezbollah fighters were killed on Sunday when an Israeli drone hit their vehicle in southern Lebanon, security sources said.Their ranks were not revealed but a source close to the Iranian-backed group said they were not senior Hezbollah and Iran have a very close relationship. Israeli/Hezbollah activities escalating is where (in my view) stuff gets a lot worse a lot faster.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1749502054047854748?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​EU foreign ministers also agreed on a military operation to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

https://x.com/sprinter99800/status/1749500465782378946?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell:

​​​​​​​ “The European Union has reached an agreement to launch a joint military operation to ensure the security of commercial shipping in the Red Sea”

[Lonewolf_50]

​​​​EU foreign ministers also agreed on a military operation to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
ORAC, I am not all up on EU politics, I saw this comment under the twitthing you linked to.
I imagine that the Red Sea military operation was agreed once Albares, Spain’s foreign affairs minister, left the room.
Sánchez is determined to support any terrorist organisation which is backed by Teheran.
What's that all about?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/navylookout/status/1749359803112083484?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​French frigate FS Alsace has transited the Suez Canal to join maritime security operations in the Red Sea and will likely replace FS Languedoc.

Alsace is an air-defence variant of the FREMM Frigate with double the number of VLS cells (32) compared to the 16 of the ASW-oriented Languedoc.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Lonewolf

Please explain to this dumb Canuck how the national security interests of the US, today , are demonstrably furthered by Op Prosperity Guardian.

[ORAC]

What's that all about?
Politics…

https://euobserver.com/world/157937

[Lonewolf_50]

Lonewolf

Please explain to this dumb Canuck how the national security interests of the US, today , are demonstrably furthered by Op Prosperity Guardian. I don't do short attention span theater. You are free to tell Mr Biden that you disagree. I give less than a **** if you do. Like I said, mail your valid suggestions to Foggy Bottom. I am sure that your amateur input will be given top shelf consideration.

Note that the EU is now joining into the scrum. EU naval mission in Red SeaSee ORAC's posts a bit further up.

At the moment, the "must be seen to be doing something" bit is underway. (The 90's were filled with crap like that, in part because Bill Clinton could not tell Christiana Amanpour to shut the **** up and piss off).

In (x amount of time) that imperative, to be seen as doing something, will be overtaken by ... something else by the policy makers.

You have foolishly attempted to apply what we learned in staff college to actual politicians. (As regards a campaign plan, aims, and concrete objectives, all of which we in the armed services insist on being clearly spelled out. In Real Life it's never that clear. Politicians like wiggle room, no matter how much it makes our jobs difficult).(Lord, I am so glad I'm not in that business anymore, it's gotten worse, not better).

Politicians have never held themselves to that standard, no matter how much we military sorts wish that they would listen. I remind you, again, to answer the question of "How Many years did the Kuwait tanker reflagging bit go on?" Think in time frames of that order of magnitude, not "a month here and there".

You have fallen for the having a short attention span problem.

Don't feel bad, you are not alone.

I want to point out that I agree with your accurate critique that the whack a mole game doesn't end things quickly.
No ****, Sherlock. But what it does do, in the short term, is to sate the political demand that "something be done about this!"
But here's the rub: the Houthis are noise, not signal.

Been reading a bit about the latest rhetoric from Mr Netanyahu. In the past few days, he appears to be going all in on the "river to the sea" rhetoric.
He is drawing a line in the sand as to the West Bank and is talking about the utter rejection of a Two State solution.

That development, which everyone in the Mid East (heck anyone in the UN) is hearing is ~ I suspect ~ about to blow up in his face.
That particular position is a hell of a lot of a bigger risk for the region than the whack a mole game with the Houthis.
Nothing any of the US military services does can mitigate that.
A response has to be offered from The White House, and IMO, the answer needs to be something like "no, we don't support that."

If that response doesn't come, (Blinken has been making noises about the two state solution) the whole thing turns darker. Not good news, at all.

And Iran, who is the topic of this thread, will have more ammo for their next salvo in the Information War.

[Low average]

It appears the IRGC have been active a little closer to home - London. Spreading radicalising, genocidal hate via Islamic Charities. As a UK taxpayer, am I funding this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68016330

[Ninthace]

It appears the IRGC have been active a little closer to home - London. Spreading radicalising, genocidal hate via Islamic Charities. As a UK taxpayer, am I funding this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68016330

How do you think you are funding it precisely?

[DogTailRed2]

How long before Russia slips Iran some Air to Air, we loose a crew and have them paraded on tv?

[ORAC]

How do you think you are funding it precisely?
The key word is “charities”, they get both tax relief and government grants. e.g.

https://www.civilsociety.co.uk/news/government-funding-to-charity-halted-after-problematic-videos-emerge.html


​​​​​​​

[Ninthace]

The key word is “charities”, they get both tax relief and government grants. e.g.

https://www.civilsociety.co.uk/news/government-funding-to-charity-halted-after-problematic-videos-emerge.html




Indeed. It is taxpayers’ money that will be spent investigating and curtailing any wrongdoing.

[Lonewolf_50]

How long before Russia slips Iran some Air to Air, we loose a crew and have them paraded on tv? It's a good question, but do you think Iran is up for initiating that Air-to-Air exchange over the Red Sea? Over the Persian Gulf, maybe.
They are acting through proxies.

[Asturias56]

What would they fire it from - IIRC they announced they'd got a single F-5 airborne back in September. The Saudis and the UAE took out a lot of the Houthi/Yemen aircraft in the long war.

[DogTailRed2]

I should have said ground to air.

[ORAC]

That’s what the FGR4s were taking out last night with their Paveway IVs.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I don't do short attention span theater. You are free to tell Mr Biden that you disagree. I give less than a **** if you do. Like I said, mail your valid suggestions to Foggy Bottom. I am sure that your amateur input will be given top shelf consideration.

Note that the EU is now joining into the scrum. See ORAC's posts a bit further up.

At the moment, the "must be seen to be doing something" bit is underway. (The 90's were filled with crap like that, in part because Bill Clinton could not tell Christiana Amanpour to shut the **** up and piss off).

In (x amount of time) that imperative, to be seen as doing something, will be overtaken by ... something else by the policy makers.

You have foolishly attempted to apply what we learned in staff college to actual politicians. (As regards a campaign plan, aims, and concrete objectives, all of which we in the armed services insist on being clearly spelled out. In Real Life it's never that clear. Politicians like wiggle room, no matter how much it makes our jobs difficult).(Lord, I am so glad I'm not in that business anymore, it's gotten worse, not better).

Politicians have never held themselves to that standard, no matter how much we military sorts wish that they would listen. I remind you, again, to answer the question of "How Many years did the Kuwait tanker reflagging bit go on?" Think in time frames of that order of magnitude, not "a month here and there".

You have fallen for the having a short attention span problem.

Don't feel bad, you are not alone.

I want to point out that I agree with your accurate critique that the whack a mole game doesn't end things quickly.
No ****, Sherlock. But what it does do, in the short term, is to sate the political demand that "something be done about this!"
But here's the rub: the Houthis are noise, not signal.

Been reading a bit about the latest rhetoric from Mr Netanyahu. In the past few days, he appears to be going all in on the "river to the sea" rhetoric.
He is drawing a line in the sand as to the West Bank and is talking about the utter rejection of a Two State solution.

That development, which everyone in the Mid East (heck anyone in the UN) is hearing is ~ I suspect ~ about to blow up in his face.
That particular position is a hell of a lot of a bigger risk for the region than the whack a mole game with the Houthis.
Nothing any of the US military services does can mitigate that.
A response has to be offered from The White House, and IMO, the answer needs to be something like "no, we don't support that."

If that response doesn't come, (Blinken has been making noises about the two state solution) the whole thing turns darker. Not good news, at all.

And Iran, who is the topic of this thread, will have more ammo for their next salvo in the Information War.

A reasonable if rather condescending summary of the entire present ME situation. However I asked a pretty specific question. I will repeat it since you seemed to have missed it the first time

How are the national security interests of the US, today demonstrably furthered by Op Prosperity Guardian ?

Just because the US has the capability to something, doesn’t mean it should. The “is this in the national security interests of the US?” is IMHO, a good first test.

[Lonewolf_50]

The short attention span answer is:

"To degrade the ability of the Houthi to interdict Red Sea merchant traffic"
and
"To limit Houthi capacity to act"

Who does this benefit? Any of our allies who use those shipping lanes, and in particular Egypt who stands to lose substantial revenue from further Suez diversions. Helping an ally in the region helps the overall posture.
At a more fundamental level, the unrestricted flow of international commerce is in America's national security interest. (Has been for well over a century)
There is your staff college style answer, for what it's worth.

Whether or not that translates into more merchant carriers returning to their normal maritime trade route remains to be seen.
The risk analysists at Lloyds and elsewhere, and the shipping companies, are certainly playing their own games on their own terms.

The core problem with your question is that it looks at that op through a paper towel roll tube.
Seems to me a bit of a category error to assess that in isolation, as though it exists in its own context.

Are you familiar with the DIME model? This op, as I assess it, is supporting the "I" in DIME.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The short attention span answer is:

"To degrade the ability of the Houthi to interdict Red Sea merchant traffic"
and
"To limit Houthi capacity to act"

Who does this benefit? Any of our allies who use those shipping lanes, and in particular Egypt who stands to lose substantial revenue from further Suez diversions. Helping an ally in the region helps the overall posture.
At a more fundamental level, the unrestricted flow of international commerce is in America's national security interest. (Has been for well over a century)
There is your staff college style answer, for what it's worth.

Whether or not that translates into more merchant carriers returning to their normal maritime trade route remains to be seen.
The risk analysists at Lloyds and elsewhere, and the shipping companies, are certainly playing their own games on their own terms.

The core problem with your question is that it looks at that op through a paper towel roll tube.
Seems to me a bit of a category error to assess that in isolation, as though it exists in its own context.

Are you familiar with the DIME model? This op, as I assess it, is supporting the "I" in DIME.

Your answer is the standard default response of the State Department and US Military. Maybe it is time to think differently. The Houthi's publicly stated enemy is the US and Israel. As long as Op Prosperity Guardian is an American op, and lets be clear the other countries assets, including Canada's are window dressing, the US is giving the Houthi's what they want, an enemy to shoot at. Every attack makes them stronger, every failure to degrade their combat capability ( hence my whack a mole comment) makes the US weaker. So the question is, is this op enhancing or degrading the national security interests of the US ?

Your overtly dismissive attitude towards even contemplating doing anything else, is I would suggest mirrored, throughout the US Government and Military. Supporting Israel is not an option, deterring Iran is not an option, providing a foil for a despotic terrorist group running a section of one of the poorest counties in the world, to ostensibly protect a trade route which has viable alternatives; is a choice.

At the end of the day despite everything I said Op Prosperity Guardian may still be worth doing, but I really question whether any alternatives were seriously considered before the haze grey cans of kick ass rolled in.

By the way nobody serous talks about DIME anymore. Everyone uses the MIDFIELD model now.

[Lonewolf_50]

Your answer is the standard default response of the State Department and US Military. Maybe it is time to think differently. The Houthi's publicly stated enemy is the US and Israel. As long as Op Prosperity Guardian is an American op, and lets be clear the other countries assets, including Canada's are window dressing, the US is giving the Houthi's what they want, an enemy to shoot at. Every attack makes them stronger, every failure to degrade their combat capability ( hence my whack a mole comment) makes the US weaker.
No, that is a reasoning error on your part.
The problem you seem to be neglecting - by your own choices and biases - is that one cannot 'not respond" to the attacks in maritime shipping. You underestimate, based on what you have posted here, the aspect of "seen to be doing something" as seen by the politicians.

In the longer term, I am not sure about the "window dressing" bit you mentioned, given that the EU has chosen to get on board, but as of this writing I think that your assessment meets the 'good enough' standard.
So the question is, is this op enhancing or degrading the national security interests of the US ? By itself, the answer is mu.
Attempting to assess it in isolation - when it is a part of a larger regional posture - is another reasoning error.
Your overtly dismissive attitude towards even contemplating doing anything else
You have offered nothing, but that doesn't mean that I don't have other ideas.
You are the one who says "Do something different."
OK, you spell it out, and oh by the way, tie it into the regional effort.
Spit it out, man, What's your plan?
So far, your answer is "I'll sit here on my couch and criticise, that's my plan.,"
At the end of the day despite everything I said Op Prosperity Guardian may still be worth doing,
Maybe or maybe not. It may end up being little more than a game of whack a mole.

Where I think you and I do agree is that there is a limit to what the military element of this can achieve.
By the way nobody serous talks about DIME anymore. Everyone uses the MIDFIELD model now DIME is a useful analytical model, particularly for low grade discussions such as on an internet forum, but it's not the only one.

You said something weird here:
Supporting Israel is not an option Uh, it's been a policy since about 1967. What that support looks like varies a bit.
, deterring Iran is not an option, That's been a policy since about 1979. What that looks like varies a bit.

How about you do this: explain to me what you mean by
deterring Iran

I suspect that there's a bit more behind that thought that. Perhaps for the sake of brevity you didn't include it.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2024/01/24/senators-question-legality-of-bidens-houthi-strikes-in-yemen/

Senators question legality of Biden’s Houthi strikes in Yemen

[Lonewolf_50]

From ORAC's link
The senators in their letter noted it “could also be argued that directing military action to defend U.S. commercial shipping is within this power.” However, “most vessels transiting through the Red Sea are not U.S. ships, which raises questions about the extent to which these authorities can be exercised.”

“We support smart steps to defend U.S. personnel and assets, hold the Houthis accountable for their actions and deter additional attacks,” they wrote. “We further believe Congress must carefully deliberate before authorizing offensive military action.” With the EU apparently arriving "soon" one wonders if the level of activity will decrease.
Iran's own limitations are discussed here.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/23/iran-missile-strikes-pakistan-iraq-syria/

A summary: (Full article is worth a read)

Iran’s proxies can risk limited blowback from the United States and Israel because they have very little to lose.
Iran, on the other hand, would have much more to lose if it were to spark a direct conflict with the United States or Israel. Iran could not, for example, replicate the Houthis’ shipping blockade effort in the Strait of Hormuz. It could try, but the risk of sparking direct escalation with the United States, much less the strain that it would place on relations with China and its neighbors, would present significant risk.

Seeking to reduce risk is why Iran outsources much of the violence to its clients—and why its clients have taken the lead in military action against foreign adversaries during the current crisis. Funneling its strategic activities through proxies keeps the fight away from Iran’s doorstep and allows others to absorb the costs.

In the present context, as Iran and its proxies attempt to assert themselves as the chief countervailing force against Israel and the United States, they have few cards to play. That is especially true in terms of military action, where they are mostly limited to standoff strikes. They can fire at targets from a long distance and use the threat of such as coercion with neighbors and foes, but Iran and its clients cannot do much more. They cannot take their war to Israel or liberate Palestine by force.

Instead, they are limited to conducting provocative acts in an attempt to shape the political environment. For Iran, such acts signal both what it can do and the limits of what it’s willing to do for its cause.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1750197018100719652?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Members of the Biden administration, alongside dllied Defense officials, are reportedly now discussing a possible withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from eastern Syria due to ongoing attacks by Iranian-backed forces, alongside a reconsideration of military priorities in the Middle East region.

This withdrawal would likely be a major blow to allied Kurdish forces in Nnrtheastern Syria, as well as the continuation of Operation Inherent Resolve, the fight against the Islamic State (IS).

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/24/america-is-planning-to-withdraw-from-syria-and-create-a-disaster/

America Is Planning to Withdraw From Syria—and Create a Disaster

[ORAC]

https://x.com/centcom/status/1750205198067237095?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


On Jan. 24 at approximately 2 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated container ship M/V Maersk Detroit, transiting the Gulf of Aden.

One missile impacted in the sea. The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely (DDG 107).

There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Instead, they are limited to conducting provocative acts in an attempt to shape the political environment. For Iran, such acts signal both what it can do and the limits of what it’s willing to do for its cause.

The problem is that when Iran conducts "provocative acts" they my actually provoke more of a reaction than they wanted....

[ORAC]

Reference #898

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1750358335302312003?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The U.S-Arm of the Danish Shipping and Logistics Company, Maersk has announced that they will be Halting any further Transits through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden until further notice, following a Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Attack earlier today by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen against 2 of their American-Flagged and Owned Cargo Ships, M/V Maersk Detroit and M/V Maersk Chesapeake as they were attempting to enter the Southern Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The Attack on the 2 Ships, which were carrying Equipment for the U.S. Military, is reported to Failed with the nearby USS Gravely (DDG-107) having Shot Down at least 2 of the Ballistic Missiles while another Impacted the Ocean near the Vessels.

[ORAC]

Reuters reports that Chinese officials have asked Iran to 'rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Houthis or risk harming business relations with Beijing'

[admikar]

And I suspect it will give us better results than all the patroling is going to ever be able to.

[Lonewolf_50]

Reuters reports that Chinese officials have asked Iran to 'rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Houthis or risk harming business relations with Beijing' I saw a similar article this morning.
Chinese officials have told their Iranian counterparts to intervene in the Houthi (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/houthis) rebel group's ongoing attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea—or risk losing a crucial trade partner, Reuters said on Friday, in the first known report (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/china-presses-iran-rein-houthi-attacks-red-sea-sources-say-2024-01-26/) of direct discussions about the subject. I would be interested to see if Iran answers back
"Improve your treatment of Xinjiang province Uyghurs and we might agree to that"
(They probably won't, but who knows?)

Saw another article that pointed out how useless the USN's LCS ships are. They make up about one fifth of the surface fleet (by hull count) but are more or less not fit for purpose: just as many of us pointed out 20 years ago when that program went live. (For my money, they all ought to be either buried, like the Aussie NH-90, or sold/gifted to various coast guards around the world at a deep discount).
They can't be used in an op like the Red Sea op currently underway.
Why?
They can't knock a missile out of the sky. (Though they do have a nominal self defense capability).
Some of them can embark a helicopter, but for this case that's not much help.

[West Coast]

And I suspect it will give us better results than all the patroling is going to ever be able to.

That presumes Iran has that level of control over their surrogates.

[skydiver69]

Saw another article that pointed out how useless the USN's LCS ships are. They make up about one fifth of the surface fleet (by hull count) but are more or less not fit for purpose: just as many of us pointed out 20 years ago when that program went live. (For my money, they all ought to be either buried, like the Aussie NH-90, or sold/gifted to various coast guards around the world at a deep discount).
They can't be used in an op like the Red Sea op currently underway.
Why?
They can't knock a missile out of the sky. (Though they do have a nominal self defense capability).
Some of them can embark a helicopter, but for this case that's not much help.


This has a succinct summary of the problems both classes of LCS has. https://youtu.be/ZT7TWwMj8OQ?si=L22l2PC2xwTt-3FU

[Big Pistons Forever]

I
Saw another article that pointed out how useless the USN's LCS ships are. They make up about one fifth of the surface fleet (by hull count) but are more or less not fit for purpose: just as many of us pointed out 20 years ago when that program went live. (For my money, they all ought to be either buried, like the Aussie NH-90, or sold/gifted to various coast guards around the world at a deep discount).
They can't be used in an op like the Red Sea op currently underway.
Why?
They can't knock a missile out of the sky. (Though they do have a nominal self defense capability).
Some of them can embark a helicopter, but for this case that's not much help.

This is not just a problem for the LCS. Many Western Navies frigates or even destroyers would have problems with the sophistication of the anti ship missiles now available to terrorist groups, especially anti ship ballistic missiles. I don't think the LCS as a concept is necessarily flawed, however it is unfortunately a case study in the abject failure of the Naval capability procurement process.

[Ninthace]

That presumes Iran has that level of control over their surrogates. .
If they have their hand on the supply chain, they have the option of switching it off

[Lordflasheart]

...
They can't be used in an op like the Red Sea op currently underway.
Why?
They can't knock a missile out of the sky. (Though they do have a nominal self defense capability).
Some of them can embark a helicopter, but for this case that's not much help.

Are you casting aspersions at our shiny new flat tops, Commander ?
...
LFH

[keith williams]

Looks like we need a thread about the LCS. Then this thread can get back to the intended subject.

[DogTailRed2]

This is not just a problem for the LCS. Many Western Navies frigates or even destroyers would have problems with the sophistication of the anti ship missiles now available to terrorist groups, especially anti ship ballistic missiles. I don't think the LCS as a concept is necessarily flawed, however it is unfortunately a case study in the abject failure of the Naval capability procurement process.
Isn't this just the nature of procurement. If you look back at WW2 at the beginning there were many state of the art machines not fit for purpose by the time war broke out. It takes time to procure, design, build and make sea worthy a warship. Not so much for a missile. Just look at the time to market for drone tech versus armour. Perhaps a new approach to warfare is required?

[Asturias56]

.
If they have their hand on the supply chain, they have the option of switching it off

the Yemenis are quite capable of surviving without Iranian support - tho eventually y the'y'l run out of missile and drones

that might be a while

[Ninthace]

When they restricted themselves to internal carnage, the world at large was not overly bothered. It was when they tried to involve other folk that the word started to sit up an take notice. If they leave the ships alone and stop lobbing missiles at other countries than interest will soon wan again,

[Lonewolf_50]

Are you casting aspersions at our shiny new flat tops, Commander ?
.LFH No.
the distinction I am making is that if you have a proper surface combatant (like a Burke class DDG) it has a Aegis/Spy-1 suite that lets it pick up and engage Ballistic and Cruise missiles.
As an added bonus, they can operate an MH-60R (the newer version of the SH-60B I flew) which has a good enough rader to pick up a cruise missile while out on patrol.
Details on why LCS can't at the spoiler.. (apologies to all for the thread drift)
Take a look at the Photo gallery here. (https://www.dvidshub.net/image/7164411/uss-montgomery-lcs-8-conducts-underway-operations)
That's a CH-60S/MH-60S helicopter that does NOT have a radar/ESM suite that can help it detect and track cruise missiles, and the ship has neither the SPY nor the Missiles to deal with TBM.




BIg Pistons Forever: Yes, it's a shining example of a complete cluster**** in Naval procurement. Fortunately, there are ships that can handle it, and some of them are on task.
BACK ON TOPIC!
As to the Houthis running out of missiles: I think that was part of the reason for the operation a week or so ago where the two SEALS were lost. Interdicting weapons deliveries (or so the story was told in the media).

[ORAC]

The Marshall Islands Flagged, and British o, wned chemical tanker, M/V Marlin Luanda was reportedly struck earlier today by a anti-ship ballistic missile launched by the Houthi while she was transiting the Gulf of Aden from the Red Sea.

The explosion from the missile is claimed to have caused a fire but no casualties.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/oil-tanker-on-fire-after-missile-attack-by-houthis-m5mdcx96k

An oil tanker is on fire in the Gulf of Aden after the Houthis claimed to have hit it with a missile, the latest attack on international shipping by the Iran-backed rebels.

Yahya Saree, a Houthi military spokesman, said that the Marlin Luanda was hit by missiles fired by Yemeni naval forces. “The strike was direct and resulted [in] the burning of the vessel,” he added.

Fire crews on board the oil tanker were working to “control the flames” and save the vessel after it was struck by a missile, the company operating the ship said.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said the attack had taken place 60 miles southeast of Aden and warned other vessels to transit with caution.

While the rebel group claimed the ship was British, this has not been confirmed and shipping data suggested it is flagged in the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean.

Trafigura, the commodities trading group based in Singapore which has offices in Britain, said firefighting equipment on board had been deployed and the safety of the crew was its “foremost priority”.

A Trafigura spokesman said: “Earlier on 26 January the Marlin Luanda, a petroleum products tanker vessel operated on behalf of Trafigura, was struck by a missile as it transited the Red Sea.

“Firefighting equipment on board is being deployed to suppress and control the fire caused in one cargo tank on the starboard side.”

They continued: “We remain in contact with the vessel and are monitoring the situation carefully. Military ships in the region are under way to provide assistance.”

Hours later the US military confirmed it had carried out a “self defence strike” on an anti-ship missile in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.

The missile was aimed at the Red Sea and presented “an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the US Navy ships in the region”, according to a statement from US Central Command on Saturday morning. Houthi media channels reported two airstrikes targeting the port of Ras Issa in Hodeidah province.

Early the US military said one of its warships shot down a missile fired at it by the group, which is acting in support of Palestinians in Gaza.

In the incident involving the US navy vessel, the Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen towards the destroyer USS Carney in the Gulf of Aden, according to US Central Command.

“The missile was successfully shot down by USS Carney,” it said. “There were no injuries or damage reported.”…

[jolihokistix]

Guessing the Houthis are employing dummy missile launchers; they seem to have just about everything else.

[albatross]

The Marshall Islands Flagged, and British o, wned chemical tanker, M/V Marlin Luanda was reportedly struck earlier today by a anti-ship ballistic missile launched by the Houthi while she was transiting the Gulf of Aden from the Red Sea.

The explosion from the missile is claimed to have caused a fire but no casualties.

See post 8042 (27-01-2024) in the Ukrainian war thread.
Ship may be loaded with Naphtha

https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/652441-ukraine-war-thread-part-2-a.html#post11584674

It has been moved to the JB Unpleasantries Russia/Ukraine thread.
T28B.

[Lyneham Lad]

On BBC News website. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68121694)
Three US troops have been killed and 25 injured in a drone attack on a US base in Jordan, near the Syria border

[albatross]

An interesting report on the tanker
https://youtu.be/KNHPkYF6-uw?si=73oOvusLOgib68QS




An oil tanker is on fire in the Gulf of Aden after the Houthis claimed to have hit it with a missile, the latest attack on international shipping by the Iran-backed rebels.

Yahya Saree, a Houthi military spokesman, said that the Marlin Luanda was hit by missiles fired by Yemeni naval forces. “The strike was direct and resulted [in] the burning of the vessel,” he added.

Fire crews on board the oil tanker were working to “control the flames” and save the vessel after it was struck by a missile, the company operating the ship said.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said the attack had taken place 60 miles southeast of Aden and warned other vessels to transit with caution.

While the rebel group claimed the ship was British, this has not been confirmed and shipping data suggested it is flagged in the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean.

Trafigura, the commodities trading group based in Singapore which has offices in Britain, said firefighting equipment on board had been deployed and the safety of the crew was its “foremost priority”.

A Trafigura spokesman said: “Earlier on 26 January the Marlin Luanda, a petroleum products tanker vessel operated on behalf of Trafigura, was struck by a missile as it transited the Red Sea.

“Firefighting equipment on board is being deployed to suppress and control the fire caused in one cargo tank on the starboard side.”

They continued: “We remain in contact with the vessel and are monitoring the situation carefully. Military ships in the region are under way to provide assistance.”

Hours later the US military confirmed it had carried out a “self defence strike” on an anti-ship missile in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.

The missile was aimed at the Red Sea and presented “an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the US Navy ships in the region”, according to a statement from US Central Command on Saturday morning. Houthi media channels reported two airstrikes targeting the port of Ras Issa in Hodeidah province.
Interesting: https://youtu.be/KNHPkYF6-uw?si=73oOvusLOgib68QS
Early the US military said one of its warships shot down a missile fired at it by the group, which is acting in support of Palestinians in Gaza.

In the incident involving the US navy vessel, the Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen towards the destroyer USS Carney in the Gulf of Aden, according to US Central Command.

“The missile was successfully shot down by USS Carney,” it said. “There were no injuries or damage reported.”…

[Asturias56]

"The Marshall Islands Flagged, British owned"

maybe we should refer the owners to the Armed forces of the Marshall Islands?

[DogTailRed2]

"The Marshall Islands Flagged, British owned"

maybe we should refer the owners to the Armed forces of the Marshall Islands?

This is normal for most countries.
A flag of convenience ship is one that flies the flag of a country other than the country of ownership. For workers onboard, this can mean: very low wages. poor on-board conditions.

[ORAC]

An Iranian-backed militia conducted a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in northeastern Jordan on Jan. 28, killing three American service members and wounding another 25. This attack is part of the ongoing Iranian-led campaign to expel US forces from the Middle East.

President Biden and Vice President Harris were briefed by the National Security on the attack Other participants of the Brief included National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Brown, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Director of the CIA William Burns, United Nations Ambassador Linda Greenfield, Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, and Chief of Staff Jeff Zients.

"While we are still gathering the facts of this attack, we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq," President Biden said in a statement. "Have no doubt - we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing," he said.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin echoed that threat.

According to Iraqi Sources, multiple Sites used by Iranian-Backed Militias and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran in Eastern Syria and Iraq are in the process of being Evacuated with Personnel and Equipment being “Scattered”.

Intense activity by aircraft believed to be American over the Iraqi-Syrian border near the Syrian city of Al-Bukamal where most of the Iranian weapons smuggled from Iran to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria pass through.

Iranian-Backed Sources are also reporting significant aerial activity by US forces over Iraq.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tankertrackers/status/1750870157465919622?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


For those of you that want to keep track of the Iranian Navy drone & helicopter carriers (all of which were converted from old merchant vessels), here is where they are all located. The SHAHID BAGHERI is of particular concern as she may likely cause mayhem in the Arabian Sea.

UPDATE: Over the past few days, the Iranian Drone Carrier SHAHID MAHDAVI has been relocated to the Gulf of Oman.



https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1604x1072/image_7137c005f9f16702b9686b555d244a84aff0b12f.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

U.S. Defense and Intelligence officials believe that the drone attack which was launched against the Tower 22 base in northeastern Jordan, originated from the Imam Ali military site near Abu Kamal in southern Syria.

The base is operated by the IRGC alongside several Iranian backed militias.

[Asturias56]

This is normal for most countries.
A flag of convenience ship is one that flies the flag of a country other than the country of ownership. For workers onboard, this can mean: very low wages. poor on-board conditions.

of course - but in most walks of life if you take the el-cheapo route and something goes wrong you're expected to live with the consequences................... the owners don't want to pay UK levels of tax and employment - so should they expect defence for free?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/joshrogin/status/1751675900066705865?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Here’s a map that shows how Tower 22 is in close proximity to Tanf, Rubkan, and Iraq’s Al Waleed air base. Several Iranian backed militias operate in this space. “Area 55” is the 55 km “safe zone” around Tanf protected by US troops.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x1383/image_0324e4f9a9eb0ff58b915d60d1ee160b214721cf.jpeg

[ORAC]

BREAKING: Jordan has requested Patriot air defense systems from the United States.

[ORAC]

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iran/2024/01/28/iran-seizes-oil-tanker-and-crew-in-arabian-gulf-2/

Iran seizes oil tanker and crew in Arabian Gulf

Iran (https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iran/) seized a foreign oil tanker it accused of transporting “smuggled fuel” and detained 14 crew members on Sunday, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2024/01/22/us-sanctions-fly-baghdad-and-kataib-hezbollah-over-support-for-irgcs-quds-force/) seized the unidentified vessel on Sunday morning, the outlet reported, and claimed it was carrying 2 million litres of smuggled diesel.

It was seized by court order 96 kilometres (60 miles) off the coast of Bandar-e-Bushehr. The crew on board “of Asian origin” were detained.

Tasnim said the ship was from Oceania, without providing any further detail.

It comes just weeks after the navy boarded a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker (https://www.thenationalnews.com/gulf-news/2024/01/11/maritime-security-agency-reports-incident-off-oman-coast/) once at the centre of a dispute between Washington and Tehran.

Iran seized the ship in retaliation for a “violation committed by the Suez Rajan ship … and the theft of Iranian oil by the United States”, the Irna news agency reported…..

[jolihokistix]

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. There is going to be a very large oil spill around there (Yemen/Oman/Iran) if these challenges to international law are allowed to continue.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1751668008202747996?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The USA and it's Allies have adopted a strategy of non-escalation with Iran, as it triggers one proxy after another to attack bases, warships, civilian shipping 1/ Today's killing of US troops may not be an "escalation"...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1751668008202747996.html

[RAFEngO74to09]

Drone attack on Tower 22 got through due to failure to correctly ID as threat - friendly UAV was due back around the same time.

(2) Jennifer Griffin on X: "Big scoop from @WSJ U.S. Failed to Stop Drone Attack Because of Identification Mixup - WSJ https://t.co/6OGe5aNKb8" / Twitter

[GlobalNav]

The USA and it's Allies have adopted a strategy of non-escalation with Iran, as it triggers one proxy after another to attack bases, warships, civilian shipping 1/ Today's killing of US troops may not be an "escalation"...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1751668008202747996.html

Well, "without escalating anything", I think its time to turn some IRGC facilities into parking lots and advise Iran that it they keep this up, that we may provide some extra parking space in their country.

[dead_pan]

Drone attack on Tower 22 got through due to failure to correctly ID as threat - friendly UAV was due back around the same time.

(2) Jennifer Griffin on X: "Big scoop from @WSJ U.S. Failed to Stop Drone Attack Because of Identification Mixup - WSJ https://t.co/6OGe5aNKb8" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1751998043627336025)

I wonder if that was a deliberate ploy, also whether complacency may have played a part.

What's noteworthy is the strength of Iranian denials. Theyre clearly sh*t scared of an American assault. So much for their much vaunted air defence network.

[DogTailRed2]

I wonder if that was a deliberate ploy, also whether complacency may have played a part.

What's noteworthy is the strength of Iranian denials. Theyre clearly sh*t scared of an American assault. So much for their much vaunted air defence network.
Fog of war.

[ORAC]

https://gcaptain.com/houthis-claim-missile-attack-targeting-uss-lewis-b-puller/

Houthis Claim Missile Attack Targeting U.S. Navy Sea Base USS Lewis B. Puller

Houthi officials claim to have launched a missile attack targeting the U.S. Navy’s afloat expeditionary sea base, USS Lewis B. Puller (ESB 3). However, U.S. officials have not yet confirmed the alleged incident.

The Houthis did not clarify whether the vessel was hit. It’s important to note that the group has made false claims about attacks in the past, including a similar claim of a missile attack on the US-flagged Ocean Jazz (https://gcaptain.com/houthis-claim-attack-targeting-us-flagged-ocean-jazz/) which the U.S. denied as “patently false.”

The USS Lewis B. Puller was delivered (https://gcaptain.com/usns-lewis-b-puller-first-afloat-forward-staging-base-delivered-to-u-s-navy/) to the Navy in 2015 and was initially operated by the Military Sealift Command, the U.S. Navy’s civilian-manned sealift and ocean transport arm. The vessel was redesignated (https://gcaptain.com/u-s-navy-turns-usns-lewis-b-puller-into-commissioned-warship/) as a commissioned warship in 2017.

Measuring 784 feet, the USS Lewis B. Puller is designed to support air mine countermeasures and special warfare missions. It can also undertake additional missions, including counter-piracy, maritime security, as well as humanitarian and disaster relief.

In 2022, the USS Lewis B. Puller was harassed (https://gcaptain.com/dod-says-iranian-patrol-boat-harassed-u-s-navy-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz/) by Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) patrol boats in the Strait of Hormuz just days after it was involved in a massive seizure of illegal weapons in the Gulf of Oman, which were being transported by Iran to the Houthis in Yemen.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1333/image_4d4955cee3fcadcf576a57b4a47d28cae0e4bef7.jpeg

[ORAC]

So far today there have been 2 more attacks by against U.S. forces in eastern Syria.

Rockets attacks have targeted the bases at the Al-Shaddadi patrol base and the Al-Omar Oil Fields;

No damage to the bases or casualties are being reported as a result of either attack.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/01/29/danish-air-defense-frigate-heads-to-red-sea-as-trade-is-under-threat/

Danish air-defense frigate heads to Red Sea as trade is under threat

PARIS — The Danish air-defense frigate Iver Huitfeldt set sail to the Suez Canal on Monday to join the coalition protecting shipping in the Red Sea, just days after an oil-products tanker was hit by a Houthi missile in the Gulf of Aden.

The Iver Huitfeldt will join U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian (https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2023/12/19/us-unveils-international-force-to-defend-red-sea-heres-what-we-know/) once parliament gives final approval, expected on Feb. 6, Denmark’s Ministry of Defense said on Monday (https://www.fmn.dk/da/nyheder/2024/danmark-sender-fregat-til-styrkelse-af-den-maritime-sikkerhed-i-og-omkring-det-rode-hav/).

France transferred a second frigate to the Red Sea region eight days ago, while Belgium is sending the frigate Louise-Marie to join a nascent European Union mission there.

The frigates will strengthen the multinational fleet defending commercial shipping from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, who have been attacking vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden with missiles and drones.

A.P. Møller-Mærsk, the world’s second-largest container shipping company, is headquartered in Denmark, while third-largest container shipper CMA CGM is based in France.

“As a major seafaring nation, Denmark has a clear interest in contributing to maritime security,” Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in a statement.

“The Houthi attacks against international shipping and thus the security of international waters are deeply worrying and a serious threat to the international world order.”…

[ORAC]

The Times:

…..On Tuesday night James Heappey, the armed forces minister, suggested that the Royal Navy could deploy an aircraft carrier to the Red Sea if required.

He told The House magazine that the UK could send warships “if we were needed to plug a gap in US deployments or if the situation deteriorates”. He added: “There’s a thing about just maintaining a carrier presence in the region where we might co-operate with the Americans to provide a capability there.”

Should the USS Dwight D Eisenhower, presently deployed in the Red Sea, return to the US, the UK could step in with either the HMS Prince of Wales or HMS Queen Elizabeth, two warships designed to carry F-35 fighter jets, Heappey said….

[ORAC]

According to Yemeni sources, the Houthi are reported to have suffered significant casualties, including the loss of several high rank commanders, during renewed combat against the Yemeni Army in Marib and Shabwah.

It would seem the official government, whether on their own initiative or with the backing and cooperation of the US, are taking advantage of the disruption being caused by the UK and US air operations.

It remains to be seen if the Saudi armed forces also take advantage of the situation.

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC:
Interesting news, thanks. :ok: While I would like to the see Saudis take advantage of that, I suspect that they'll not do that since they don't want to appear to their various Arab colleagues to be helping Israel.
Their intervention at this point could easily be spun in that direction in the Information War.

In other related news, which points to Iran perhaps telling the Houthis and certain militias to tone it down a bit ...
​​​​​​ ​The Iraq-based terrorist group believed to be responsible for the fatal attack on U.S. troops in Jordan announced that it is suspending military activity in the region.

The group, Kata’ib Hezbollah, says it is halting operations under pressure from its backers in Iran and the Iraqi government, according to the New York Times.
President Biden has nevertheless vowed to respond to the Sunday attack, which left three U.S. soldiers dead and roughly 30 more injured.

Kata'ib Hezbollah, which translates to "Brigades of the Party of God," is responsible for a large majority of the more than 160 attacks against U.S. forces operating in Iraq and Syria since mid-October.

"We announce the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces — in order to prevent embarrassment to the Iraqi government," the group's leader, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, said in a statement late Tuesday.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had called for a halt to attacks on the U.S. in late 2023, but he went ignored. Following the death of American troops, however, he interceded to the Iranian government directly, according to the Times.
I'll give him high marks for his efforts to cool things down.
He knows that if this snowballs his country will pay a price.

[Davef68]

Sounds like Kata'ib Hezbollah have got their knuckles wrapped by Tehran

[dead_pan]

Sounds like Kata'ib Hezbollah have got their knuckles wrapped by Tehran

Indeed they have.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-an-iranian-ally-iraq-was-made-stand-down-2024-01-31/

[Lonewolf_50]

Update on the two SEALS lost while interdicting the dhow that was running weapons from Iran to Houthis ...
U.S. officials are revising their preliminary findings on what happened to two Navy SEALs who died during a mission to board an unflagged ship that was carrying illicit Iranian-made weapons to Yemen...U.S. officials said Wednesday that Navy Special Warfare Operator 1st Class Christopher J. Chambers was boarding the boat on Jan. 11 and slipped into the gap the high waves had created between the vessel and the SEALs’ combatant craft.
As Chambers fell, Navy Special Warfare Operator 2nd Class Nathan Gage Ingram jumped in to try to save him, according to U.S. officials familiar with what happened.
In a statement, Naval Special Warfare Command said that an investigation is continuing to gather more information on what happened.

The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet is conducting an investigation. That probe is expected to examine whether the SEALs were properly equipped and trained for the mission, whether procedures were followed, and any decisions regarding the timing and approval of the raid, including the weather and the state of the seas.

[ORAC]

According to a U.S. Defense Official, USS Gravely was forced to use her Phalanx CIWS last night against a Houti ASM.

The ASM is reported to have come within 1nm of the ship following a miss by an SM-2. .

[ORAC]

Several Explosions have reportedly Rocked the Coastal City of Hodeidah in Western Yemen within the last few minutes, with reports of Renewed U.S. Strikes against Houthi Positions near the City.

[ORAC]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/753x520/image_f1b5ceff51cd1edd4dfda2a23623d9f95071f773.png

[Lonewolf_50]

According to a U.S. Defense Official, USS Gravely was forced to use her Phalanx CIWS last night against a Houti ASM.
The ASM is reported to have come within 1nm of the ship following a miss by an SM-2. .
That's why CIWS is there, but it's disappointing to see that the SM-2 was not successful.

[Big Pistons Forever]

That's why CIWS is there, but it's disappointing to see that the SM-2 was not successful.

Layered ship defence is very good but it is not 100% effective against modern anti ship missiles like the ones Iran has given the Houthi’s.

When you look at the potential ramifications of the death of 3 soldiers, what would the ramifications of the loss of a USN fleet unit and deaths in the hundreds ? The missiles that could do that are unambiguously supplied by Iran, so there is no way Iran could play the “it was the Houthi’s, not us card” anymore.

This is how a major regional conflict starts, and potentially WW III…

[Lonewolf_50]

Actually, that is why you use a layered defense. Your "chicken little" act is wearing thin, though.
When you look at the potential ramifications of the death of 3 soldiers, what would the ramifications of the loss of a USN fleet unit and deaths in the hundreds ? You are engaging in hyperbole, yet again.

Burke class DD's are far more robust than Perry Class FF's.
USS Stark got hit by Exocet, and how many died? Not hundreds.
USS Samuel B Roberts hit a mine, and how many died? Not hundreds.
The above were Perry class FF's. As for Burke class DD's:
USS Cole got hit by a boat driven suicide bomb, and how many died? Not hundreds.

Beyond that, President Biden and his team appear to be trying to manage the level of effort on this.
Mr Biden also seems to be keeping the chicken hawks in check.for the moment.



In related news, looks like some of the SEAD efforts paid off.
US forces on Wednesday destroyed a Houthi missile that presented an immediate threat to American aircraft, the US military said, marking the latest engagement between Western militaries and the Iran-backed rebels.

At around 3:30 p.m. local time, American forces hit and destroyed a surface-to-air missile that the Houthis were preparing to launch from Yemen, US Central Command, or CENTCOM, said in a statement.

After initially identifying the missile, the military determined that it "presented an imminent threat" to US aircraft operating in the region. CENTCOM did not disclose any additional information about the engagement in response to queries from Business Insider. The incident marks the most recent demonstration of preemptive action (https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-still-try-attack-ships-but-us-blowing-up-missiles-2024-1) taken by the Pentagon, which has conducted numerous strikes on Houthi targets this month as the rebels prepared to launch missiles into key international shipping lanes off the coast of Yemen. From that they appear to have hit a SAM site, but it's a bit vague without more info from CENTCOM.

[Big Pistons Forever]

You may call it chicken little, I would suggest that historically low probability, but high consequence events have resulted in things spiralling out of control in unanticipated ways.

The USN has been given mission impossible, stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.
USN ships are facing sophisticated Iranian supplied anti ship missiles but in all probability will be able to always defeat them without sustaining damage, but what if they don’t? Then what ?

[Lonewolf_50]

You may call it chicken little, I would suggest that historically low probability, but high consequence events have resulted in things spiralling out of control in unanticipated ways. True enough, humans can be fickle and are capable of non linear responses to stimuli.
The USN has been given mission impossible, stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. USN ships are facing sophisticated Iranian supplied anti ship missiles but in all probability will be able to always defeat them without sustaining damage, but what if they don’t? Then what ? Well, why not look at what happened when Stark got hit.
We didn't bomb Iraq.
Look at what happened when Roberts hit a mine. We didn't start a war.
Look at what happened when Cole got attacked. We didn't start a war.

Let's say a savvy operational planner puts together a launch package and penetrates the missile defenses and scores a few hits on a DDG.
First off, ship will not necessarily sink. Damage control is a thing. Ship limps off to (some port) and the long term repair effort gets underway. (As with Cole).
Yes, some sailors will die. That sucks.
But see above example. Escalating a few orders of magnitude is not the only response.
There are levels of response. While I don't doubt that some pay back would occur, the level of payback is not predetermined and it need not escalate very far. (And go back to my point to you before about the "seen to be doing something" bit, which also does not require starting a war).
Take a look at the recent news item from the militias in Iraq: apparently, Iran has taken an assessment of American responses and they have throttled back. (A bit)

There are Rational actors on both ends of this.

[Big Pistons Forever]

There are Rational actors on both ends of this.

I sure hope you are right, but I don’t share your optimism.

[beardy]

The USN has been given mission impossible, stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping

​​​Are you sure in your information that those are there orders?

[ORAC]

CENTCOM Statement on U.S. Stikes in Iraq and Syria

At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups.

U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions.

The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aired vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1753538026473488871?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

The news is covered and filled with this tonight.
The two sound bytes that caught my eye were the common repetitions of these two phrases.
1. This is the beginning of our response.
2. We will respond at a time and in the manner of our choosing.

I think Iran and their proxies forgot who they were screwing with.
Or, they kind of expected this. We'll see.
Some talking head from Iran was on the news but the voice over obscured what he was saying. I'll check back in a bit to see what the official line out of Tehran was.
Two days ago, they had this to say:
Iran threatens to ‘decisively respond’ to potential U.S. attacksWorld (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world)Jan 31, 2024 12:12 PM EST
JERUSALEM (AP) — Iran threatened Wednesday to “decisively respond” to any U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic following President Joe Biden’s linking of Tehran to the killing of three U.S. soldiers at a military base in Jordan.
From what I saw on TV, none of the strikes were in Iran proper. But the messaging was clear that IRGC assets/personnel were targets.

I would not mind being in the BDA cell, figuring out how the 125 strikes on 85 targets went. (Then again, I am a bit long in the tooth).
The ops planning cell at CENTAF and CENTCOM were probably living on coffee for the last five days.

For Big Pistons Forever: what do you think the Iranian response to this will be? Do you think they will ratchet it up, or go back to the war of words?'Let all those who might seek to do us harm know this,' President Biden said in a statement announcing the attacks, 'If you harm an American, we will respond.'
More notes on the rhetoric.
''The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world,'' President Joe Biden said in a statement announcing the attacks. "But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond."

Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin indicated more strikes are likely. "Our response began today," Biden said. "It will continue at times and places of our choosing."

Austin reiterated that point, noting that the attack Friday was ''the start of our response.''





[ORAC]

Officials at CENTCOM have stated that several A-10C Close-Air Support aircraft, from the 354th FS on deployment at Al-Dhafra AB UAE, took part in tonight’s airstrikes.

[ORAC]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-strikes-iran-backed-groups-in-syria-and-iraq-bcd627b5

….Jordanian aircraft are also slated to join in the operation and have been assigned targets. Jordan’s role is unusual and is intended to demonstrate solidarity with the U.S. following the drone strike on Tower 22, an outpost in Jordan near the Syrian border.

Jordan participated in airstrikes in the early phase of the campaign against Islamic State, which began in 2014, and lost a pilot, who was captured and executed by ISIS. But Jordanian aircraft haven’t previously bombed Iran-backed militias in an operation coordinated with the U.S., said Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank…..

[Lonewolf_50]

At this time, the White House declined to comment on if any militants were killed or wounded in the operation, though Syrian state media said “American aggression (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-starts-retaliatory-strikes-iraq-syria-officials-2024-02-02/)” resulted in multiple casualties. I am trying to track down a report of an Israeli strike in Syria that killed an IRGC leader, but not getting much detail. The above cropped up, though.

For ORAC: makes sense that Jordan would get in on this. It was there territory that got attacked with the Tower 22 raid.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tankertrackers/status/1753388907964608670?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Reminder: European taxpayers have to pay for the safe passage of vessels in the Red Sea on account of the Iranian-backed Houthis, but Iranian vessels such as this OFAC-blacklisted SHIBA can dock in Europe without any inconveniences.

SHIBA is currently in Constanta, Romania.

PS: This photo was taken this morning.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x910/image_f55a6731575fc8ed7f011f7b20162a6c75674a29.png

​​​​​​​https://x.com/yorukisik/status/1753394842422362426?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[jolihokistix]

Surely Iran will now have to pay this year's 15% increase of fees through the already expensive Suez Canal.

[Ninthace]

Would not any levy imposed on Iranian shipping just be passed on to the customer?

[beardy]

Would not any levy imposed on Iranian shipping just be passed on to the customer?
Probably and probably making Iranian shipping less competitive.

[havoc]

Retired General: ‘Stop telling our enemies what the U.S. is not going to do ’ | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/retired-general-stop-telling-our-enemies-what-the-u-s-is-not-going-to-do/vi-BB1hIkI1?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=479e269abd8f4df38c95335de3b33cbd&ei=35)

[admikar]

Probably and probably making Iranian shipping less competitive.
Be careful what you wish for.
It that happens, someone will step in to fill the gap, but due to increased demand price will go up. Rest will quickly follow suit.

[ORAC]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1290x1711/image_398c9f369183158481bee63f47ddd970c74a1f86.png

[tdracer]

Retired General: ‘Stop telling our enemies what the U.S. is not going to do ’ | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/retired-general-stop-telling-our-enemies-what-the-u-s-is-not-going-to-do/vi-BB1hIkI1?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=479e269abd8f4df38c95335de3b33cbd&ei=35)
That would require the politicians in charge to have some concept of "Cause and Effect".
Based on our current governing class, that's incredibly wishful thinking.

[WhatsaLizad?]

Reading from above it should be added that from now on, shipping to ports in Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, Ireland, Germany, Norway, Greece, Italy, Turkey and others are now unprotected. Participating warships shall not engage in any defense of countries unwilling to defend themselves or their interests.

Take the scenic route.

[Asturias56]

But that just hits us - the UK especially. So few ships are British flagged - almost everything comes through in ships based in obscure flags of convenience.

[ORAC]

Iran, Russia and China will hold joint naval exercises in the coming weeks, Iranian media reported on Monday, referring to the commander of the Islamic Republic's Navy, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani.

The purpose of the exercises is "to ensure regional security in the common interest", the military commander said, according to Russian Interfax.

[Not_a_boffin]

But that just hits us - the UK especially. So few ships are British flagged - almost everything comes through in ships based in obscure flags of convenience.
See if you can guess - apart from Greece - which European countries have more ships flagged than the UK.......

Not that I particularly agree with the idea of penalising the European countries named up-thread.

[ORAC]

Iran has enough nuclear material to build its first nuclear weapon within a week - U.S. Institute for Science and International Security

The country is capable of producing six such bombs within a month, and 12 in five months.

Experts note that "Iran's nuclear weapons capability is now more dangerous than ever, while its relations with the West are at an all-time low."

[ORAC]

CENTCOM Self-Defense Strikes

On Feb. 5, at approximately 3:30 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted a strike in self-defense against two Houthi explosive uncrewed surface vehicles (USV).

U.S. forces identified the explosive USVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region.

These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy vessels and merchant vessels.

[Ninthace]

A long winded way of saying 2 down, no idea how may left.
Good shooting!

[DogTailRed2]

Iran has enough nuclear material to build its first nuclear weapon within a week - U.S. Institute for Science and International Security

The country is capable of producing six such bombs within a month, and 12 in five months.

Experts note that "Iran's nuclear weapons capability is now more dangerous than ever, while its relations with the West are at an all-time low."

It’s five minutes past midnight in Armageddon | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4379293-its-five-minutes-past-midnight-in-armageddon/)

[Lonewolf_50]

It’s five minutes past midnight in Armageddon | The Hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4379293-its-five-minutes-past-midnight-in-armageddon/) Their core problem is that anyone at whom they would like to launch a missile can (1) probably shoot one down and (2) can fire at least one back their way.
But they might find other ways to infiltrate a bomb into a target nation; heck, just watch a bunch of Hollywood thrillers and take notes. :p

[Herod]

"On the Beach" Nevil Shute. 1957 I think.

[ORAC]

Iranian-Backed Houthi Terrorists conduct Multiple Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Attacks in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden:

On Feb. 6, from approximately 1:45 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. (Arabian Standard Time) Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired six anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Three of the ASBMs were attempting to hit MV Star Nasia, a Marshall Island-flagged, Greek owned-and-operated bulk carrier transiting the Gulf of Aden.

At approximately 3:20 a.m., MV Star Nasia reported an explosion near the ship causing minor damage but no injuries.
At 2 p.m. another missile impacted the water near the ship with no effect.
At 4:30 p.m., USS Laboon (DDG 58), operating near MV Star Nasia, intercepted and shot down a third anti-ship ballistic missile fired by the Iranian-backed Houthis.

MV Star Nasia remains seaworthy and is continuing toward its destination.

The remaining three ASBMs were likely targeting MV Morning Tide, a Barbados-flagged, UK-owned cargo ship operating in the Southern Red Sea. The three missiles impacted the water near the ship without effect.

MV Morning Tide is continuing its journey and is reporting no injuries or damage.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x659/image_b69132e5790bdd5d25e4401f970621e4c4c6023e.png

[SASless]

Tom Clancy was ahead of his time it appears.



At what point does a preemptive strike become useless?

[jolihokistix]

Slightly different view/version of events here.
Houthis launch new wave of missile attacks on ships off Yemeni coast | Arab News (https://www.arabnews.com/node/2454821/middle-east)

[Lonewolf_50]

On Tuesday, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed group responsibility for firing anti-ship missiles at the Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier Star Nasia, and the cargo ship Barbados Morning Tide.

He said the first ship was American and the second British and that both vessels sustained direct hits. Sarea added that the attacks were in support of Palestine and retaliation for US and UK bombardments of Yemeni areas under Houthi control.

Since Jan. 12, American and British forces have conducted dozens of attacks on bases in Sanaa, Hodeidah, Hajjah, Al-Bayda, Saada, and other sites in a bid to diminish Houthi military capabilities to fire on ships. An excerpt from the Arab news you linked to, joli. Interesting to see that the header for that article had "The Second Nakba" as its title.

[Lonewolf_50]

For Big Pistons Forever:
Saw a tidbit today that you may find to be of interest. Your take on the whole "strategy" thing seems to dovetail with this fellow's take.
If the current conflict in the Middle East is in large part about Iran’s influence, does Washington have the right strategy? Not so, said Stavridis: “We tend to look at Iran as this kind of annoying middle-sized power in a region that we would just as soon depart. That’s not how they see themselves. The Iranians absolutely see themselves as the inheritors of the Persian Empire. Job one in creating a strategy for Iran would be to recognize the Iranian self-view. Then you can begin to reverse-engineer and find the levers that could avoid conflict. We need a coherent plan with Iran that goes beyond the episodic interactions we tend to have with them.”
There's a whole interview that this comes from. I think he's called that right.
James Stavridis (ADM) is pretty sharp and he's operated at the higher levels of the Pol / Mil interface for some years.
(I met him back in the early 90's when he was XO of USS Antietam. Impressive then as well).

To what end do we keep blowing stuff up?
We are reasonably good at blowing stuff up.
He seems to think that a new sight line is needed for this political target.

For ORAC: they shot a missile into the air and where it fell they do not care.

[ORAC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68235311

A senior commander of an Iran-backed militia has been killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.

The leader of Kataib Hezbollah and two of his guards were in a vehicle when it was targeted in the east of the Iraqi capital. All three of them died.

The Pentagon said the militia leader was responsible for directing attacks on American forces in the region.

The US has linked the militia to a drone attack in Jordan that killed three US troops last month. In the wake of that attack, Kataib Hezbollah said it was suspending attacks on American troops.

Wednesday night's drone raid happened in Baghdad's Mashtal neighbourhood, sparking several loud explosions. It was a precise strike on a moving vehicle in a busy street and the car was reduced to a fiery wreck.

When a BBC team reached the scene, crowds of protesters gathered chanting: "America is the biggest devil." There was a heavy police presence, and Swat teams from Iraq's interior ministry joined them.

The BBC team tried to get close to the burnt-out vehicle, but were driven back by onlookers who insisted that journalists were not welcome. "You are foreigners," one man shouted, adding "and foreigners are to blame for this".

There are reports of crowds heading to the heavily fortified US embassy to protest.

A US official confirmed earlier to CBS the individual targeted was a Kataib Hezbollah commander in charge of operations in Syria for the group….

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/640x400/image_5b0cd20ecad2a70fecf0f72ecac1cea41a898151.jpeg

[Big Pistons Forever]

For Big Pistons Forever:
Saw a tidbit today that you may find to be of interest. Your take on the whole "strategy" thing seems to dovetail with this fellow's take.

There's a whole interview that this comes from. I think he's called that right.
James Stavridis (ADM) is pretty sharp and he's operated at the higher levels of the Pol / Mil interface for some years.
(I met him back in the early 90's when he was XO of USS Antietam. Impressive then as well).

To what end do we keep blowing stuff up?
We are reasonably good at blowing stuff up.
He seems to think that a new sight line is needed for this political target.
.

I met Adm Stavridis when he was CENTCOM. I was very impressed with his strategic vision and a nuanced appreciation of both the capabilities and limitations of American military power embodied by his “Smart Power” approach to thorny world problems. If you have not already read it I highly recommend his book Partnership for Prosperity,

As for Op Prosperity Guardian, I see no achievable end state that does not leave the US diminished. The political will to use overwhelming force to decisively defeat the Houthi’s, including the use of ground forces, is not on the table and is probably ultimately self defeating. It is too late to just go home and deprive the Houthi’s of the American targets so the only choice is to continue to soak up missiles and opportunistically try to degrade Houthi tactical resources.

Sadly the knee jerk reaction to the Houthi threat seems to be the US Op Plan for the entire ME. What I don’t see, and I hope it is because I am missing it, is a unified US government approach to Iran’s actions which directly or indirectly affect the National Security interests of America.

[Lonewolf_50]

The latest attack near Baghdad on the Iran backed militia leader - Kataib Hezbollah faction - has drawn a reaction form the Iraqi government that is, to me, quite understandable.
The PM is very unhappy, and has spoken publicly about the Americans in Iraq (mostly dealing with ISIS, but also with Iran backed militias) may have worn out there welcome.
This may be mostly for public consumption, but the complaint voiced in the article ORAC posted that excerpt from strikes me as valid.
What are you foreigners doing blowing up a car in a Baghdad neighborhood?
The news snippet I saw last night indicated that the Iraqi government was not informed of the op.
(a) that may by for public consumption, but I suspect that it is true
(b) OPSEC is a thing, and for an op like that the fewer people "in" on it the better chances for success lest the target be spooked.
(Dealt with quite a few TST type scenarios like that a couple of decades back)

But how does it look, domestically, in Iraq, if the PM is being worked around by this ally who is ostensibly here at the Iraqi government's invitation?
Optics not good.

If the 2,000+ Americans in Iraq are invited to leave, what does that due in the Kurdish and border regions in the north central part of Iraq?
Nothing good for Iraq, plenty of opportunity for Iran.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1756102403105989088?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Initial Reports that at least 3 High-Ranking Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were Killed earlier in an Israeli Airstrike on a Farm in the Damascus Countryside, which was being used as a Meeting Location by the Leadership of several Iranian-Backed Groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[ORAC]

Feb. 9 Summary of USCENTCOM Self-Defense Strikes in Yemen

On Feb. 9, between the hours of 3 a.m. – 9:40 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted self-defense strikes against two mobile unmanned surface vessels (USV), four mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and one mobile land attack cruise missile (LACM) that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.

CENTCOM identified these missiles and USVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region. These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy and merchant vessels.

[ORAC]

Various reports that U.S. Defense sources have said that plans are in motion for the complete or partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq.

The Iraqi parliament is currently voting on a law to require the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.

Timescale for the withdrawal is given as within the next 90 days, depending on the level of withdrawal.

I would imagine the partial part involves Kurdistan where they want them to remain.

[ORAC]

BEIRUT, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Air defence systems operated by U.S.-led coalition troops based in eastern Syria halted six drone attacks targeting their base at the Conoco oil field on Saturday, a security source said.

The source did not tell Reuters if there were casualties.

Coalition troops and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who together fight remnants of the Islamic State group, have faced increased attacks by Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq since Hamas’s attack against Israel on Oct. 7.

[DogTailRed2]

Feb. 9 Summary of USCENTCOM Self-Defense Strikes in Yemen

On Feb. 9, between the hours of 3 a.m. – 9:40 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted self-defense strikes against two mobile unmanned surface vessels (USV), four mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and one mobile land attack cruise missile (LACM) that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.

CENTCOM identified these missiles and USVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region. These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy and merchant vessels.

Does this withdrawal impact the security of Israel?

[ORAC]

Significant One-Way “Suicide” Drone Attack reported against the U.S. Patrol Base within the Al-Omar Oil Field in Eastern Syria;

Casualties and Damage are currently Unknown.

[Lonewolf_50]

Various reports that U.S. Defense sources have said that plans are in motion for the complete or partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq.
The Iraqi parliament is currently voting on a law to require the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.
Timescale for the withdrawal is given as within the next 90 days, depending on the level of withdrawal.
I would imagine the partial part involves Kurdistan where they want them to remain. This came up about the day after the drone strike in Baghdad. Saw an article in FP about it, and it gives me pause.
Air defence systems operated by U.S.-led coalition troops based in eastern Syria halted six drone attacks targeting their base at the Conoco oil field on Saturday, a security source said. The source did not tell Reuters if there were casualties.
Coalition troops and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who together fight remnants of the Islamic State group, have faced increased attacks by Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq since Hamas’s attack against Israel on Oct. 7. So ISIS is still around. They ought to be foes of the Iranian backed militias. I guess they become the militia's problem if the US pulls out?
Does this withdrawal impact the security of Israel? It impacts the security of Iraq to a greater extent.

[ROC man]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68227200

[DogTailRed2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68227200

Someone better tell the Americans the Harrier is rubbish and needs replacing. Shame we never kept them.

[Lonewolf_50]

The Marines are still flying them, in part, due to the years long delays of the F-35B.
I have a few Harrier pilot buds, and they liked it.

[ORAC]

Coordinated attack on the gas pipeline network across Iran. Iran claiming that this is a result of a terrorist attack.

https://x.com/mxdondevivo/status/1757557400394150260?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1757650312230207881?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[ORAC]

https://x.com/mhmiranusa/status/1757375497191760242?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Iran's IRGC published a video today of launching a ballistic missile from their forward base Shahid Mahdavi (converted container ship).

The missile seems to be from Fateh series launched from a single launcher hidden inside a container.

A banner on the container (inside my green circle) shows the "The Great Prophet-18" exercise which actually happened around Jan 10, 2024 but was canceled and never declared due to some missile's failure.…


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x610/image_17f98a1e659a48cf455fadd82e087a4466a0489a.png

​​​​​​​https://x.com/mhmiranusa/status/1745001004284698960?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​More videos of the missiles track and air defense engagement in the Iranian port of Chabahar today where important military bases exist too.
COULD be air defense exercise as there was talks on the "The Great Prphet-18" exercise starting these days.

[Lonewolf_50]

Iran's IRGC published a video today of launching a ballistic missile from their forward base Shahid Mahdavi (converted container ship). The missile seems to be from Fateh series launched from a single launcher hidden inside a container. A banner on the container (inside my green circle) shows the "The Great Prophet-18" exercise which actually happened around Jan 10, 2024 but was canceled and never declared due to some missile's failure.…

More videos of the missiles track and air defense engagement in the Iranian port of Chabahar today where important military bases exist too.
COULD be air defense exercise as there was talks on the "The Great Prphet-18" exercise starting these days.
Our Navy does live missile exercises also.
I think that Iran has demonstrated an interesting capability here, something like the old "armed merchantman" that some navies used to deploy in the 19th and 20th century.
​​​​​​​It could be in a box on any old container ship, yes?

[Asturias56]

welll.... I'd suggest it would be best to put THAT box on top of the pile........... and keep careful track of it during a voyage

given the thought processes of some of these non Govt groups we may see some dreadful accidents,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x628/emmamaersk39_jpg_829fccac52415df97acd4e22b6f02f84ec60da1c.jp g

[Lonewolf_50]

The Seven P's would seem to apply on the Seven Seas. :}

[artee]

The Seven P's
would seem to apply
on the Seven Seas. :}
I hadn't realised that you were a poet :ok: