Iran

[Yellow Sun]

Seems to remove the element of surprise, doesn't it? :confused:

inshallah?????

YS

[Asturias56]

"Seems to remove the element of surprise, doesn't it? "

probably required by their Insurance Company

[albatross]

Reminds me of the invasion of the Falklands.

”Sir. The Mothers of the tortured and missing are protesting in the streets!”

”Humm we need a distraction quickly! Suggestions?”

”I know sir. We could invade the Falklands! That will unite the country behind us!”

”Brilliant idea! The British will not do anything except make a protest to the UN. It’s a win-win for us.”

”I agree. What could possibly go wrong? Nothing. Should I make it so Sir?”

Same mindset here.

[Lonewolf_50]

Funny you should mention that, albatross. The US has announced that it is sending a strongly worded memo to the UN to get Iran off of the Commission on the Status of Women (http://www.unwomen.org/en/csw),

https://twitter.com/VP/status/1587849519709954049?s=20&t=H3ro_6u1-KiYM-g4awoyAg

Mind you, they got voted on last year and took their seat for a 4 year stint in March.
You can't make this stuff up.

https://unwatch.org/iran-to-join-u-n-womens-rights-commission/

[albatross]

Nothing like a “Strongly Worded Memo” to rock them back on their heels!
Must try that in a bar fight with a biker gang. I don’t imagine a good outcome.
I worked in Iran. Like everywhere else in this world the average person just wanted a good life, the ability to raise their children with a good education in a peaceful world. The demented fanatics in charge did not share this outlook.
I have seen the “makeup police” at work. Not a bunch to be admired, Just a gang of fanatical bullies given a bit of power to abuse the defenceless. Scum!

“Funny you should mention that, albatross. The US has announced that it is sending a strongly worded memo to the UN to get Iran off of the Commission on the Status of Women (http://www.unwomen.org/en/csw),

https://twitter.com/VP/status/1587849519709954049?s=20&t=H3ro_6u1-KiYM-g4awoyAg

Mind you, they got voted on last year and took their seat for a 4 year stint in March.
You can't make this stuff up.

https://unwatch.org/iran-to-join-u-n-womens-rights-commission/

[NutLoose]

If you kill one woman and it makes her a martyr and brings your country onto the streets. Imagine what this will do.

Iran's parliament voted by a majority (227 out of 290) to execute all protesters. The authorities emphasize that the rebels need to be taught the most "hard lesson".


https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1589916990751518721?cxt=HHwWgsDRgYrFwpAsAAAA

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1589916990751518721?cxt=HHwWgsDRgYrFwpAsAAAA

[Lonewolf_50]

I am wondering if that was something lost in translation. Is that "punish" all protestors or "execute" all protesters?

A different source says something different than your emotionally loaded tweet-source, Nutty. May I suggest that you dig a little deeper before you post stuff like that?
https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1589278793830645762?s=20&t=VWufEBJC7xaVh0_UXd2gXA
227 members of the 290-seat Parliament of Iran have called on the Judiciary to issue death sentences for people arrested during the ongoing anti-government protests.
That's still harsh and nasty, but it's not quite 'execute them all' as presented in your post.
The Judiciary may decline to rule as they have been encouraged to. Or they may take it as a mandate.
We'll see.

[GlobalNav]

I am wondering if that was something lost in translation. Is that "punish" all protestors or "execute" all protesters?

A different source says something different than your emotionally loaded tweet-source, Nutty. May I suggest that you dig a little deeper before you post stuff like that?


That's still harsh and nasty, but it's not quite 'execute them all' as presented in your post.
The Judiciary may decline to rule as they have been encouraged to. Or they may take it as a mandate.
We'll see.

@LW-50. Perhaps you have a point, but what is the difference in intent or outcome, perhaps just the means?

[NutLoose]

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202211068924
Iranian Lawmakers Urge Judiciary To Sentence Protesters To DeathSunday, 11/06/20223 minutes

Author: Iran International Newsroom (https://www.iranintl.com/en/author/iran-international-newsroom)

Iran Protests (https://www.iranintl.com/en/iran-protests)Human Rights (https://www.iranintl.com/en/iran-human-rights)A group of 227 parliament members in Iran has called on the Judiciary to issue death sentences for people arrested during the ongoing antigovernment protests.

The parliament, elected in a non-competitive election in February 2020, is packed with hardliners and Revolutionary Guard officers.

In a statement that was read out in the parliament on Sunday, the lawmakers called the protesters ‘mohareb’ -- which literally means warrior in Arabic, but in Islamic law or sharia it means ‘enemy of God’ that carries the death penalty. They also compared the protesters to members of ISIS, who "attack people's lives and property..."

The Iranian regime has so far charged several people with ‘moharebeh,’ “corruption on earth,” “assembly and collusion against national security” and “confrontation with the Islamic Republic” for participating in the protests.

Describing the current wave of popular protests as “riots,” the MPs claimed that “the US and other enemies” are inciting violence, organizing rallies, and providing financial support and weaponry to commandeer the protests. They also said “thugs and mobs” have killed tens of people and disrupted the security of the country.

Echoing the Islamic Republic’s propaganda line, the lawmakers said that “the enemies have been defeated in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and Yemen” therefore they organized the “riots” as a reaction to “victories of the Islamic Republic.”

Without mentioning any individuals or groups, the hardline lawmakers also asked the judiciary to take legal actions against “the politicians who incited the rioters.”

Mohammd Bagher Ghalibaf, parliament speaker in an undated phot with IRGC's Qasem Soleimani

Earlier in the parliament session, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Qalibaf) said that main elements of Mossad, CIA and their allied groups are behind the unrest in the country.

Late in October, hardliner MP Mohammad Esmail Kowsari, also a high ranking IRGC officer, implicitly threatened that the government will respond differently (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202210285577&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=FGB2XN7aGXcq8RZJeb9Q5yYkpe3UlN98CDGNVBDodWc%3D&reserved=0) to the ongoing protests from now on.

While protests continue across Iran, the Islamic Republic’s Judiciary has also announced that it has indicted over 1,000 people (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202210311192&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1uG0T3dwzLhMfIL%2BdUTgDam7q%2Fs87f3OW%2B4tgBvIWXE%3D&reserved=0) who were arrested during the demonstrations.

Authorities have been claiming that “separatists” and “instigators” are behind the efforts to overthrow the government and break Iran into areas controlled by ethnic groups, a claim routinely denied by Iranians on streets and social media.

The claim that protests are instigated by foreign enemies (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202210043596&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=13WcjX991Bd14XC%2B9g8E5NfCLmluwc5n8fMQs7ZYT7s%3D&reserved=0) was first made by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and loyal officials now repeat his conspiracy theory.

President Ebrahim Raisi on October 25 accused “enemies of the Islamic Republic” of fomenting the protests, echoing what Khamenei said (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202210035204&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=HnsgFk6rHSH6dR4EaWI1ZKPJdIBiYkhag1LII08IiLs%3D&reserved=0) a day earlier. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf in turn vowed that parliament would take action to change the ways of the morality police in a bid to calm the protesters.

“Death sentences against people for exercising their right to freedom of expression, after the killings of peaceful protesters, abductions and gunning down children, and other atrocities, indicate a government that is out of control and willing to quash protests at any cost,” said a statement by Center for Human Rights in Iran.

The Norway-based human rights organization also expressed concern regarding the fate of the detained protesters saying, “dozens of them have been charged with the security-related charges of ‘moharebeh’ and ‘corruption on earth’ which carry the death penalty.”

The Islamic Republic’s history and current evidence indicate that they intend to use the death penalty as a tool of political repression to intimidate their opposition.

Earlier in November, 40 Iranian lawyers issued a statement saying most people no longer want the Islamic Republic (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202211031313&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=4lchDVQN4ufcDTHrON4sWgrUwwWMUeVxk6iHNixDbMc%3D&reserved=0) and called on their peers to speak up and defend the people.

Iran has been gripped by protests since the death (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Fng-interactive%2F2022%2Foct%2F31%2Fmapping-irans-unrest-how-mahsa-aminis-death-led-to-nationwide-protests&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=vnqfSJyWoAd77To3dHO%2BF6bZnl7ujVWG3sGxiWZp%2F8g%3D&reserved=0) in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin who had been arrested on September 13 for allegedly breaching the Islamic dress code and died three days later from severe head trauma. Protests spread fueled by public outrage over a crackdown that led to the deaths of other young men, women, and children. Now in their seventh week, the protests show no sign of ending.

[NutLoose]

That's still harsh and nasty, but it's not quite 'execute them all' as presented in your post.
The Judiciary may decline to rule as they have been encouraged to. Or they may take it as a mandate.
We'll see.

Where did I say that? I think the poster in the thread has just worded it poorly

If you kill one woman and it makes her a martyr and brings your country onto the streets. Imagine what this will do.

[MPN11]

Thanks for the amplification, Nutloose.

[NutLoose]

We aim to please.

[Lonewolf_50]

@LW-50. Perhaps you have a point, but what is the difference in intent or outcome, perhaps just the means? The order of magnitude of the body count, as I see it. If "execute" all protesters includes anyone protesting ,and not just those who have been so far arrested, you are looking at 100's of thousands of people being gunned down. If it is confined to those already arrested and charged, it's still a lot of people, but a few orders of magnitude smaller. While I am not sure that the judges will go along with this, that's a guess on my part and if I am wrong the body bag count will be considerable. :uhoh:
Late in October, hardliner MP Mohammad Esmail Kowsari, also a high ranking IRGC officer, implicitly threatened that the government will respond differently (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202210285577&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=FGB2XN7aGXcq8RZJeb9Q5yYkpe3UlN98CDGNVBDodWc%3D&reserved=0) to the ongoing protests from now on. While protests continue across Iran, the Islamic Republic’s Judiciary has also announced that it has indicted over 1,000 people (https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iranintl.com%2Fen%2F202210311192&data=05%7C01%7C%7Cd0bf9a244cad41fc829508dac004b50f%7C84df9e7 fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638033423700197938%7CUnk nown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBT iI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1uG0T3dwzLhMfIL%2BdUTgDam7q%2Fs87f3OW%2B4tgBvIWXE%3D&reserved=0) who were arrested during the demonstrations. I suspect that they have arrested more than those thousand who have already been indicted.
Where did I say that? I think the poster in the thread has just worded it poorly So you cut and paste it, without thinking it through.
You'd have been better off to post that article (by the way, thank you for that one, :ok: it's much better presented and paints a clearer picture) than that badly worded tweet.

[MPN11]

OK … peace restored … moving on ….

[Lonewolf_50]

Iran is proud of its new hypersonic missile.
Iran claims it has developed a hypersonic missile (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-claims-it-has-developed-a-hypersonic-missile/ar-AA13XeGj?ocid=DE_20221110_ENUS__6&cvid=86491b0352034f7d8f38cf5fc424c8f5)
Tehran — Iran has developed a hypersonic missile (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-hypersonic-missiles-uk-australia/?ftag=MSF0951a18) capable of penetrating all defense systems, General Amirali Hajizadeh, the commander of its Revolutionary Guards aerospace unit, claimed on Thursday.
Hypersonic missiles, like traditional ballistic missiles which can deliver nuclear weapons, can fly more than five times the speed of sound.
"This hypersonic ballistic missile was developed to counter air defense shields," Hajizadeh said, quoted by Iran's Fars news agency. "It will be able to breach all the systems of anti-missile defense."
The general said he believed it would be decades before a system capable of intercepting the missile was developed, declaring it "a great generational leap in the field of missiles."
As an old pistol instructor used to advise me: speed is fine but accuracy is final. ;)
I wonder how good the guidance systems are.

[Lonewolf_50]

As a follow up to "how many people does the legislature want to see executed for protesting" it would appear to be "about 15,000." (If all who have been arrested were to be so treated).

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1589952530016243714?s=20&t=coedAKfZd07mxN0tH3-2PA

[Lonewolf_50]

Do Iranians want the Shah back? Don't think so. With that said, under the Shah things were a bit less restrictive.

https://twitter.com/NovelSci/status/1591832730257723393?s=20&t=928HZnwcsb7eUUrQOvpXqw

[BEagle]

I was on a flight from Friedrichshafen to Frankfurt during a World Cup footie time. The other passengers in biz class were the Iranian national team and their minder. Quiet and polite to a man.

Waiting to greet them at FRA were a number of Iranian supporters - including some young women wearing the Iranian flag with coloured bands on their faces reflecting their national pride. NO-ONE wearing any hideous black bag or hood. If they'd appeared like that in Iran, they'd have been slung in jail. What an appalling state of affairs.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1592893835600068608?s=61&t=8AFUFxaFZfmOP9P4Tuvm1Q


The revolutionaries report that they eliminated the Iranian colonel of the IRGC, Reza Elmasi. He coordinated the crackdown on protests.

​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

The revolutionaries report that they eliminated the Iranian colonel of the IRGC, Reza Elmasi. He coordinated the crackdown on protests. What are the odds that the regime takes that lying down? :bored:

[Lyneham Lad]

Resumption of low-level hostilities?

Article in The Times today.

Israeli-owned oil tanker hit by drone strike in the Arabian Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/76e2097a-65b0-11ed-9ccc-9d160947f622?shareToken=cba4a2ca22a17150f089fddeaac04b28)

An Israeli-owned oil tanker has been hit by an explosive drone in the Arabian Sea, signalling that a lull in hostilities between rival Middle East powers may be over.

The strike on the Pacific Zircon caused only minor damage according to its owner, the Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping.

[NutLoose]

Protesters have torched the former house and current museum to the late Iranian leaders Khomeini’s birthplace house. It has been a museum for the last 30 years. Quite symbolic.


https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1593546609077485568?cxt=HHwWgIC88dWMtZ0sAAAA

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1593546609077485568?cxt=HHwWgIC88dWMtZ0sAAAA

[NutLoose]

Iranian Republican guards have dropped a ballistic missile on the oppositions HQ.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1594457146137415681?cxt=HHwWgsDU0fOU06AsAAAA

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1594457146137415681?cxt=HHwWgsDU0fOU06AsAAAA

[NutLoose]

Iran strikes in Iraq reported.

It is reported that American combat and reconnaissance aircraft are taking off from Al-Asad Air Base in Central Iraq.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1594461544481423360?cxt=HHwWgICw7fWU1aAsAAAA

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1594461544481423360?cxt=HHwWgICw7fWU1aAsAAAA

[Lonewolf_50]

They have a wide variety of missiles to choose from, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Ballistic_missiles_of_Iran) I wonder which ones they used this time.
Making a guess here: this strike into the Kurdish region of Iraq will be excused, in official rhetoric from Tehran, as being against whomever it is that is winding people up in protest against Iran and whomever set fire to Khomeni's house ... but that guess may be well clear of the mark.

FWIW, they did something similar back in September (https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-attacks-northern-iraq-with-missiles-and-drones-killing-at-least-13-11664402169)

[happydolphins]

Here we go again. Another Middle-East war.

[Lonewolf_50]

The Turks launched airstrikes into Northern Iraq and Syria over the weekend (https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/11/20/turkey-strikes-syria-iraq-week-after-istanbul-bombing.html). Looks like the Kurds are taking it in the shorts from two directions- Turkey and Iran.

[West Coast]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-soccer-team-silent-national-anthem-world-cup-game-rcna58121

Had to take courage knowing they’ll likely face repercussions.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The big wars always come out of left field. I think the Middle East now poses more danger to the existing world order than the Russia Ukraine war.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/omid9/status/1600612443725725696?s=61&t=E4bbsJy7Y8AQGPpUmqj2oA


Messages I’m getting from Iran:

“Tehran on verge of collapse.

Leaked: Basij leader there has admitted the possibility of Tehran's fall tonight is extremely high and that the Presidential palace may be attacked.

​​​​​​​Khamenei & Raisi told to be transferred to a safe place ASAP.”….

[NutLoose]

Wow reports of Helicopters leaving from the palace and negotiations with Venezuela for asylum.
https://twitter.com/omid9/status/1600608773579612174?cxt=HHwWnICx2d_MwLYsAAAA

[jolihokistix]

Khamenei’s sister denounces him.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/12/07/Sister-of-Iran-s-supreme-leader-denounces-him-calls-on-military-to-support-protests

[Asturias56]

Nothing much on the BBC except one rioter was hanged yesterday - don't get your hopes up

[Lonewolf_50]

Khamenei’s sister denounces him.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/12/07/Sister-of-Iran-s-supreme-leader-denounces-him-calls-on-military-to-support-protests She's still in country, so she's taking a bit of a risk by speaking out. A sister of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has declared her opposition to her brother’s regime and called on military forces to join protesters “before it is too late,” according to a letter shared by her son on Wednesday. “I think it is appropriate now to declare that I oppose my brother’s actions and I express my sympathy with all mothers mourning the crimes of the Islamic Republic regime,” Badri Hosseini Khamenei, who lives in Iran, said in a letter shared on Twitter by her France-based son Mahmoud Moradkhani.

[FUMR]

Nothing much on the BBC except one rioter was hanged yesterday - don't get your hopes up

Over the past months I have found the BBC to be notoriously slow with news!

[Ninthace]

This on Reuters ME page
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sister-irans-supreme-leader-condemns-his-rule-urges-revolutionary-guards-disarm-2022-12-07/

[Lonewolf_50]

This on Reuters ME page
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sister-irans-supreme-leader-condemns-his-rule-urges-revolutionary-guards-disarm-2022-12-07/
An interesting point from the Reuters ME article:
On Tuesday, the elite force shared a statement calling on the judiciary to "not show mercy to rioters, thugs and terrorists", in a sign that the authorities have no intention of easing their fierce crackdown on dissent.
Iran’s judiciary spokesman, Masoud Setayeshi, said on Tuesday that five people indicted in the killing of Basij militia member Rouhollah Ajamian were sentenced to death in a verdict which they can still appeal.
Does this mean that more hangings are looming, or, that the appeals process will take a bit of time so that a follow on to what Asturias56 reported a few posts up isn't coming in the near term? (The quote below seems to be related to what Asturias was referring to)The prisoner — identified by Mizan, the news site of the country’s judiciary (https://twitter.com/MizanNewsAgency/status/1600726183733518336), as Mohsen Shekari — was convicted of “waging war against God” on Nov. 20 and sentenced to death by Tehran’s Revolutionary Court, Mizan said. Authorities accused him of repeatedly attacking a paramilitary guard with a knife and of disturbing public order by blocking a thoroughfare in Iran’s capital, Tehran, during a protest in late September.

“Iranian authorities have executed a protester, sentenced to death in show trials without any due process,” tweeted Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam (https://twitter.com/iranhr/status/1600737757907021824), director of the Norway-based group Iran Human Rights.

His execution “must be [met] with STRONG reactions otherwise we will be facing daily executions of protesters,” Amiry-Moghaddam wrote. “This execution must have rapid practical consequences internationally.”

[Asturias56]

The BBC doesn't just take stuff off Twitter - they check

[jolihokistix]

The BBC and indeed Britain as a whole seem to have little physical or emotional connection with Iran. The French on the other hand …

[Asturias56]

well, after we paid them the money they were owed its all gone quiet

[FUMR]

The BBC doesn't just take stuff off Twitter - they check

Quite so. However, they need to expedite their checks. Usually, by the time they go to print they are two days behind the rest of the world!

[melmothtw]

Quite so. However, they need to expedite their checks. Usually, by the time they go to print they are two days behind the rest of the world!

Demonstrably not true.

[ORAC]

https://news.usni.org/2023/01/03/iran-building-drone-aircraft-carrier-from-converted-merchant-ship-photos-show

Iran Building Drone Aircraft Carrier from Converted Merchant Ship, Photos Show


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/940x450/image_09227a0f4420aa9eaaef7a0cf0d36734ba627da4.jpeg

[Lonewolf_50]

Looks like some weapons going from Iran to Yemen were intercepted in the Gulf of Oman (https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/01/10/us-navy-ships-caught-fishing-boat-smuggling-over-2000-ak-47-rifles-iran.html?ESRC=navy-a_230111.nl).
(The report is that these weapons were on a fishing boat manned by 6 Yemenis...)
What's the aviation angle?
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/621x414/mil_uss_the_sullivans_ak_47_assault_rifles_1800_d7beafe1873c 546db3d7ecd59db223f14bff815f.jpg
They laid them out (all 2116 of them, AK-47's) on the Flight Deck.
Where is Doctor FOD when you need him. := The fish heads need a right talking to.
(Spoken in the voice of a grumpy old and previous Helicopter Detachment O-I-C). :mad:

[West Coast]

Looks like some weapons going from Iran to Yemen were intercepted in the Gulf of Oman (https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/01/10/us-navy-ships-caught-fishing-boat-smuggling-over-2000-ak-47-rifles-iran.html?ESRC=navy-a_230111.nl).
(The report is that these weapons were on a fishing boat manned by 6 Yemenis...)
What's the aviation angle?
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/621x414/mil_uss_the_sullivans_ak_47_assault_rifles_1800_d7beafe1873c 546db3d7ecd59db223f14bff815f.jpg
They laid them out (all 2116 of them, AK-47's) on the Flight Deck.
Where is doctor FOD when you need him. := The fish heads need a right talking to.
(Spoken in the voice of a grumpy old and previous Helicopter Detachment O-I-C). :mad:

I’m sure those weapons won’t go to waste. The ones I fam’d on decades ago were quite old even then.

[Lonewolf_50]

I’m sure those weapons won’t go to waste. The ones I fam’d on decades ago were quite old even then. I expect that they could be put to good use in Ukraine. :bored:

[Lonewolf_50]

As I suspected, the sound and fury on Twitter mask some of the problems with various attempts at revolution.
The full article is here, from this link (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/17/irans-protests-are-nowhere-near-revolutionary/). (proper Attribution) . Worth a read.
TL DR, for those with a short attention span (most of you): (the author covers key factors in assessing a movement that may upset the status quo) The fourth factor to consider is the unity and capacity of Iran’s coercive forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij, the regular army, the police, the intelligence apparatus, and a politicized judiciary ready and willing to suppress dissent.
This is where the argument in favor of revolution begins to come apart.
At no point during the 2022 protests was there any indication that the cohesiveness of these forces was at serious risk.
Quite the contrary, the protests were contained without summoning the full panoply of Iran’s military and security forces.
In fact, during the much larger and more organized Green movement, which drew millions of people to the streets in 2009, only a fraction of these forces was deployed to contain and ultimately quell the lion’s share of the street demonstrations in just a few months.
Predictably, the 2022 protests, which have been significantly smaller in comparison, have posed no real challenge to the vast manpower and firepower of Iran’s security apparatus.
Furthermore, authorities have shown little hesitation to deploy these forces to subdue protesters. With the unity and capacity of the Islamic Republic’s cohesive forces fully intact, a key ingredient for a revolutionary situation is already missing. But the missing ingredients pile up when we move away from the country and consider the current state of the opposition movement, which is the focus of the next four of Bashiriyeh’s factors.
Again, TLDR: not up to the task. Twitter offered foreigners a skewed and emotionally charged version of the facts on the ground, it seems.
But although the 2022 protest movement could bank on a wellspring of mass discontent toward the Islamic Republic, its shortcomings in terms of organizational capacity and leadership—the next two factors—have thus far proved to be critical.
But if key ingredients for a revolution appear to be missing and authorities are showing little to no sign of yielding to the people’s will, where is Iran headed? Bashiriyeh notes that authoritarian governments compensate for a crisis of legitimacy “either by resorting to more coercive and repressive measures or by turning to more public welfare services.” In the wake of the 2009 crackdown on protesters, the state opted for the former, expanding its military and coercive capabilities. This scenario seems likely today too—partly because sanctions have further drained the state’s resources, making it even more difficult to expand public services.

Finally, at a moment when the Islamic Republic is facing an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy and effective management, it should not come as a surprise that there are growing indications that military leaders are assuming influence over foreign-policy decision-making. If anything, Iranians and those around the world following their plight would do well to prepare themselves not for a revolution but for the country’s further militarization. OK, I am not sure how right this analyst is, but he paints a picture based on a reasonable analytic approach, not wish fulfillment and emotion.
Too bad, really, as they could use the benefits of democracy that their neighbor Iraq enjoys.
Hmm, wait a sec, maybe that's a problem too ... (my random thought)
Iran’s Protests Are Nowhere Near RevolutionaryMany say the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement will threaten the regime this year. They’re wrong.By Sajjad Safaei (https://foreignpolicy.com/author/sajjad-safaei/), a postdoc fellow at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology.
JANUARY 17, 2023, 6:58 AM

Iran’s “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests—both the direct disruptions they have imposed on national life and the tensions they have created among the country’s ruling elites—have prompted (https://menasolidaritynetwork.com/2022/12/16/the-uprising-has-entered-a-revolutionary-dynamic-peyman-jafari-on-the-revolt-in-iran/) many to wonder whether the Islamic Republic may be on the brink this year of a full-scale revolution (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/isiran-on-the-verge-of-another-revolution/2022/12/30/0abf5052-8808-11ed-b5ac-411280b122ef_story.html). But how close are the protesters to really dethroning Iran’s leaders?

A clarifying lens is offered by a 2009 interview with renowned political sociologist Hossein Bashiriyeh. In response to that year’s emergence of Iran’s Green movement protests, Bashiriyeh provided a general model for thinking about the prospects of any “revolutionary situation (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8675.2009.00575.x).” According to Bashiriyeh’s analysis, eight factors determine whether a protest movement becomes revolutionary. Some of these factors speak in favor of the revolutionary potential of today’s protests. Several others—a decisive number, ultimately—do not.

The first factor identified by Bashiriyeh is whether the state is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy. In Iran’s case, that was true long before the current wave of protests began in September 2022, chiefly due to the country’s deteriorating electoral system. The mass protests of 2009 were ignited by widespread claims of electoral fraud, which served to further solidify the belief among many Iranians that their ballots had no bearing on the direction of their country’s future. Over the years, the Guardian Council—an unelected, hard-line 12-member body that vets candidates for public office—has increasingly prevented pro-reform, moderate, and even conservative voices from running in parliamentary and presidential elections, thus narrowing the scope for political representation.

In the 2021 presidential race, the council abandoned any pretense of impartiality by barring any candidate who could even remotely threaten Ebrahim Raisi’s bid for the presidency. The outcome was a predictable Raisi win and the lowest turnout (https://irandataportal.syr.edu/2021-presidential-election) in the history of presidential elections since the 1979 revolution. In a clear testament to widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral process, the final tallies showed there were more (https://newspaper.hamshahrionline.ir/id/133627/%D8%B4%DA%AF%D9%81%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-1400.html) invalid or spoiled votes than votes won by the runner-up. The tarnished legitimacy of Raisi’s election was reflected in the fact that his name scarcely figures in the 2022 protests, whereas Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been the primary focus of the protesters’ wrath because many see him as the ultimate source of their predicament and Raisi as a vacuous vessel through which Khamenei’s will is imposed on them.

The second factor to consider when assessing the stability of the political system is elite cohesion. In 2009, elite unity suffered an unprecedented blow when, over the course of just a few days, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi and former Speaker of the Parliament Mehdi Karroubi morphed into opposition leaders. This constituted an unprecedented rift within the governing class. This crisis has persisted and even worsened over time. Despite hopes that the presidency of Hassan Rouhani, a centrist, in 2013 would lead to some form of national reconciliation and the inclusion of a wider range of political views in government, the exact opposite occurred. If the 2009 elections saw the unceremonious exclusion of pro-reform factions from Iran’s power structure, then by 2021 the deep rupture within elite politics had reached the inner sanctums of the country’s ruling elites, with moderate conservatives like former Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani being barred from running in the presidential election. The exclusionary practices of the Guardian Council even prompted Larijani’s brother Sadeq Larijani, the former judiciary chief and a former member of the Guardian Council, to publicly lambast (https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1518733/%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B4%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D9%85%D9%84%DB%8C-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%B5%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87) the body’s exclusionary actions.

The next factor is the extensive and chronic crisis of efficient management that plagues the Islamic Republic. This crisis manifests itself most prominently in the mismanagement of the economy and widespread corruption, although U.S. sanctions have played an undeniable role in worsening the economic situation and isolating Iran from the global economy.

The fourth factor to consider is the unity and capacity of Iran’s coercive forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij, the regular army, the police, the intelligence apparatus, and a politicized judiciary ready and willing to suppress dissent. This is where the argument in favor of revolution begins to come apart. At no point during the 2022 protests was there any indication that the cohesiveness of these forces was at serious risk. Quite the contrary, the protests were contained without summoning the full panoply of Iran’s military and security forces. In fact, during the much larger and more organized Green movement, which drew millions of people to the streets in 2009, only a fraction of these forces was deployed to contain and ultimately quell the lion’s share of the street demonstrations in just a few months. Predictably, the 2022 protests, which have been significantly smaller in comparison, have posed no real challenge to the vast manpower and firepower of Iran’s security apparatus. Furthermore, authorities have shown little hesitation to deploy these forces to subdue protesters.

With the unity and capacity of the Islamic Republic’s cohesive forces fully intact, a key ingredient for a revolutionary situation is already missing. But the missing ingredients pile up when we move away from the country and consider the current state of the opposition movement, which is the focus of the next four of Bashiriyeh’s factors.

The first such condition—mass discontent—is readily fulfilled in Iran. Even before the 2022 protests, the Iranian leadership was sitting on a powder keg of social unrest (https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/21/iran-delay-delay-nuclear-negotiations-vienna/) waiting to be ignited. But the mere fact of mass discontent alone does not produce a revolutionary moment. “Socio-economic and cultural discontent,” Bashiriyeh notes (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1467-8675.2009.00575.x), “becomes effective when made actual through a specific catalyst” and “must become politicized to have political effects.” The tragic death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and the subsequent national rage and frustration it triggered, politicized other preexisting sources of discontent, such as the narrowing space for political representation, widespread corruption, mismanagement of natural resources, the pauperization of the masses as a result of misguided state policies, and the growing stifling of civil liberties. It was in the issue of the mandatory hijab law that these other issues found “a political focus or epicenter,” in Bashiriyeh’s formulation.

But although the 2022 protest movement could bank on a wellspring of mass discontent toward the Islamic Republic, its shortcomings in terms of organizational capacity and leadership—the next two factors—have thus far proved to be critical.

The 2009 Green movement could rely on vast organizational networks developed during the months of intensive election campaigning preceding the protests. These well-established networks included election headquarters, political parties, student organizations, and labor groups, among others. Despite being dubbed a “Twitter revolution (https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2009/06/25/iran-and-twitter-revolution/)” by some Western media, the 2009 protests did not rely as heavily on social media platforms as was often assumed. As journalist Reese Erlich reported (https://therealnews.com/reeseiran0626) from the ground, “most demonstrations were organized through word of mouth, mobile phone calls and text messaging” rather than solely through social media. In contrast, the protests that erupted in 2022 lacked the established networks that the Green movement could rely on in 2009. Most of the organizing in 2022 took place spontaneously through platforms like Instagram and TikTok. This is reflected in the demographics of the protesters: More than 41 percent of those arrested have been under the age of 20. The limited organizational capacity of the 2022 protests made them easier for authorities to contain—in contrast to the more diverse and broad-based participation in 2009.

This limited organizational capacity is due, in part, to a lack of strong, recognizable leaders in the 2022 protests. Whereas the 2009 Green movement was spearheaded by figures like Mousavi and Karroubi, the 2022 protests had no clear leaders. The lack of a figurehead can be advantageous. For instance, it can make it more difficult for authorities to decapitate the protests by simply arresting key leaders. But overall, the lack of strong leadership has thus far proved to be far more detrimental than beneficial to the current movement’s organizational capacity, which in turn has made it much easier for state coercion to subdue the protesters.

The last factor to consider when assessing the revolutionary potential of the 2022 protest movement is its ideology. As Bashiriyeh reminds us, oppositional ideologies can take on either an offensive or defensive posture. Offensive ideologies advocate for a radical overhaul of the existing sociopolitical order and structure, whereas defensive ideologies focus on expressing public grievances and pushing back against perceived encroachments on rights and freedoms by ruling elites.

In contrast to the largely defensive ideology of the 2009 Green movement, whose central rallying cry was “Where Is My Vote?” and which sought to overturn the results of a widely disputed election, the 2022 movement appeared to have taken on a more offensive stance. In November 2022, for example, protesters set fire to the ancestral home of former Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. Additionally, the 2022 protests featured more aggressive slogans directly targeting Iran’s supreme leader and calling for an overthrow of Iran’s rulers. Such slogans were largely absent in the 2009 Green movement. Even the main slogan of the 2022 movement—“Woman, Life, Freedom”—may be interpreted as potentially revolutionary in the context of contemporary Iranian politics. Nonetheless, one struggles to discern a dominant and coherent offensive ideology that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the existing system. It is important to note, however, that this ideology—though not yet explicitly offensive—can evolve into an uncompromisingly offensive one over time.

Although key ingredients for a successful transition into a revolutionary movement are still missing, this does not automatically preclude the possibility of a revolution. The legitimate aspirations and demands of the Iranian people are not going to disappear if they are not addressed. Unless authorities take heed of the people’s legitimate demands and aspirations, it is only a matter of time before the next round of protests erupts. However, there has yet to be any serious indication that authorities are willing to take any meaningful steps toward lasting change.

But if key ingredients for a revolution appear to be missing and authorities are showing little to no sign of yielding to the people’s will, where is Iran headed? Bashiriyeh notes that authoritarian governments compensate for a crisis of legitimacy “either by resorting to more coercive and repressive measures or by turning to more public welfare services.” In the wake of the 2009 crackdown on protesters, the state opted for the former, expanding its military and coercive capabilities. This scenario seems likely today too—partly because sanctions have further drained the state’s resources, making it even more difficult to expand public services.

Finally, at a moment when the Islamic Republic is facing an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy and effective management, it should not come as a surprise that there are growing indications that military leaders are assuming influence over foreign-policy decision-making. If anything, Iranians and those around the world following their plight would do well to prepare themselves not for a revolution but for the country’s further militarization.
====================================================
Sajjad Safaei is a postdoc fellow at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology. Twitter: @SajjadSafaei0 (http://www.twitter.com/SajjadSafaei0)

[ORAC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-report-chides-iran-undeclared-change-fordow-uranium-enrichment-set-up-2023-02-01/

An unannounced inspection at Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant found the two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges enriching uranium to up to 60% purity were interconnected in a way "substantially different" to what Iran had declared to IAEA -- internal report seen by Reuters.

https://twitter.com/mrnick11602484/status/1620814629311221760?s=61&t=QGc0Pcig6yHqjgsKM0EWXA


​​​​​​​Cascaded centrifuges can be connected in 2 ways, series or parallel. (Retired centrifuge technician here.)

Parallel means a common output ie 60%.

Series means incremental output ie 60 -> 90%.

boom boom.

[Lonewolf_50]

Color me unsurprised. :cool:

[Asturias56]

I'm ASTONISHED - who would ever have thought it could happen - clearly someone didn't understand their instructions - dear oh dear. Suspension without pay for 24 hours I suspect

[chopper2004]

in todays The drive , article on the IRIAF underground bunkers / shelters for their Phantoms.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/iran-unveils-underground-fighter-caves-housing-f-4-phantoms?fbclid=IwAR3MqJUCQANTH1CauSa-sC5tuHLnCvlDlLgUHrZ5JihswneUGO1Ms1Jn9d4


https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2023/02/07/Screen-Shot-2023-02-07-at-4.41.07-PM.png?auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=1440

[Asturias56]

I knew it - they're hidden in CrossRail in C London..........................

[jolihokistix]

Phantoms underground!?!? The opera continues…

[Asturias56]

They can get the Elizabeth Line to Heathrow - plenty of runway there

[ORAC]

Good friends with NK which has just tested an UCBM, right?

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627371663095476225?s=61&t=_7upAO1XimFTc9RhibzNnw


Last week Atomic Energy Monitors detected that the Iranian Government has Enriched Uranium at the Natanz Enrichment Complex to the point just below what is needed to produce Nuclear Weapons; some Officials believe that Iran will soon have enough Enriched Uranium to build multiple Nuclear Weapons.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1627377036024074240?s=61&t=_7upAO1XimFTc9RhibzNnw


NEW: US Ambassador to Israel says "as Biden has said, we will not stand by & watch Iran get a nuclear weapon, number one.

“Number two all options are on the table.”

”Number three, Israel can & should do whatever they need to deal with that and we’ve got their back"

Times of Israel

[Asturias56]

"Good friends with NK which has just tested an UCBM, right?"

Good friends is stretching it a bit I think - they have some common enemies (the USA etc) but they also have different interests - NOK doesn't seem interested in threatening Israel for example

There has been a long history of people selling missile technology especially for hard cash - we dress it up as "joint design" or "joint manufacture" but it's much of a muchness

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1630674758978220039?s=61&t=j0lUWHb0M7GxYa0CwE8krw


​​​​​​​BREAKING: Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in "about 12 days", a top US Defense Department official says - Reuters

[West Coast]

"Good friends with NK which has just tested an UCBM, right?"

Good friends is stretching it a bit I think - they have some common enemies (the USA etc) but they also have different interests - NOK doesn't seem interested in threatening Israel for example

There has been a long history of people selling missile technology especially for hard cash - we dress it up as "joint design" or "joint manufacture" but it's much of a muchness

For the right incentive the norks will learn to hate anyone, even their big brother the Chinese with whom they have a fickle relationship.

[Less Hair]

Clearly, all those diplomatic non-proliferation measures as we knew them didn't work. We need something better. How long until the drug mafia gets nukes?
At least there is great material for some new James Bond movies.

[Asturias56]

"Clearly, all those diplomatic non-proliferation measures as we knew them didn't work. "

They might have if the guys holding N bombs had offered to give them up - but turning round and telling people they can't have something you have isn't brilliant or effective

[melmothtw]

"Clearly, all those diplomatic non-proliferation measures as we knew them didn't work. "

They might have if the guys holding N bombs had offered to give them up - but turning round and telling people they can't have something you have isn't brilliant or effective

Don't think anyone who has nuclear weapons or is looking for the means to get them is likely to surrender them or the search anytime soon, given what happened to those that have - namely Ukraine, Iraq, and Libya. I think the lessons is that if you have nukes, keep them. If you don't have nukes, try and get them.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/thegoodisis/status/1630979203196674048?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​NEW Breakout Numbers: Iran could have enough weapon-grade uranium for its first nuclear weapon (25 kg) in 12 days, using 60 percent enriched uranium stock. In another twelve days it could produce a second quantity. Adding in the use of 20 % stock leads to five within one month.1/….

[57mm]

Now there are reported poisonings of schoolkids (mostly girls).

[Asturias56]

"I think the lessons is that if you have nukes, keep them. If you don't have nukes, try and get them."

exactly

i think the current Iranian regime are appalling but if I was in their Govt I'd be driving the N weapon programme at top speed. They're surrounded by people who have N weapons and several of whom have stated clearly and often they 're out to get you.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1631524000277966849?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, and other U.S. Defense Officials will reportedly arrive in Israel later today in order to conduct high-level meetings with Israeli military and intelligence officials on the threat that Iran poses to the region.

The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, is also set to arrive on a 2 day visit to Israel on Wednesday next week to discuss the Iranian nuclear situation with Israeli PM Netanyahu and the IDF Chief of Staff.

These meetings come after White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, CIA Director Bill Burns and Secretary of State Tony Blinken have all also conducted visits to Israel in recent weeks to discuss the Iranian threat with Israeli officials.

[ORAC]

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/622x350/image_a940d03800c637cfe889a2cd4571455a8435cd6a.jpeg

[SASless]

Miller is wetting his pants now....and wringing his hands....and worrying how this latest development will interfere with pushing his Woke Agenda.

But...he and SecDef Austin are right on top of things....as they were when they said the Ukraine War would be over in three days or so.

This does not come for being too strong...to certain in your positions...and prepared to defend the freedom of navigation in critical choke points such as the Straits of Hormuz and Persian/Arabian Gulf (take your pick....).

[Lonewolf_50]

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/622x350/image_a940d03800c637cfe889a2cd4571455a8435cd6a.jpeg
Is this a big enough problem to begin reflagging tankers?
Maybe, and maybe not.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1663892465055682562?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING:

The Taliban are pulling serious forces toward Islam-Qala. Meanwhile, Iran is pulling out some of its border guards from there, fearing a Taliban attack.

This comes after the recent deadly border clashes between Iran & Afghanistan.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/eren50855570/status/1663965029194973244?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Taliban continue to transport heavy equipment and armored combat vehicles to the Iranian border. Occasionally, the Taliban attack Iranian border forces. The two sides are approaching step by step towards war.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/squiredigital/status/1663897525886021635?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


So why is this border skirmish between Iran and the Taliban happening now?

Sure the big cause is overpopulation of young men with no future, Sunni Shiite hatred, and the command of their Allah god to subjugate all infidels, but this thread has details…

​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Afghanistan%E2%80%93Iran_clash

actually a long running argument over water, dams and extraction that goes back to 1870

[Lonewolf_50]

I need to be careful how I say this, but in the early 00's (as we were supporting some austere ops) in the region, I was surprised to learn of some under-the-radar cooperation between Iranians and Americans in Western Afghanistan. This was linked to Iranian concerns as regards Taliban and Sunni activism at the time. (And I think that's about as far as I can to with that).
No love lost between the Taliban and Iran then, nor now, it seems. (Though the story in the link by Asturius56, thank you, paints a more nuanced picture of that relationship ...)

That thread - thanks ORAC - as regards water rights, drug trafficking, and the economic challenges in that border region ring true.

[Asturias56]

Historically the joint border has always been a scene of trouble - occasionally Iran (or Persia) getting to Herat and the Afghans pushing west

Form a religious view there are major differences of course

[Lonewolf_50]

Interesting story about an F-22 meeting an Iranian F-4 a few years back (was it really over a decade ago?) as a bit of "drone defense" in the Persian Gulf area.
‘You Really Oughta Go Home’: F-22 Stealth Fighter Flew Under Iran F-4 (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/you-really-oughta-go-home-f-22-stealth-fighter-flew-under-iran-f-4/ar-AA1dx069?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7fa9116ea32b4c2188dcd7fbfc13abb8&ei=21)

I like the "You really oughta go home" line.
:E Maverick would have just flipped him off. :E

[ORAC]

US Central Command has ordered a squadron of F-35s and F-16s to the Gulf after continued “alarming incidents” by the Iranian military have taken place along the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.

This comes after a squadron of F-16s was deployed to the region last week in order for them to begin escorting commercial shipping through the Strait alongside A-10 aircraft which were already deployed.

https://t.co/4nPnps5jhg

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/doubling-down-on-deterrence-us-sends-f-35s-destroyer-to-gulf-after-iran-linked-alarming-events/

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1682158158431526913?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The U.S. Department of Defense has announced in addition to F-16s, F-35s, and a Guided-Missiles Destroyer, they have now ordered the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group equipped with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to Deploy to the Middle East Region due to the continued “Aggressive Behavior” by Iran against Commercial Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Bataan ARG includes the USS Bataan (LHD-5), USS Mesa Verde (LPD-9), and the USS Carter Hall (LSD-50

[Lonewolf_50]

The following opinion piece in the news offers the PoV that it's about to get kinetic unless Iran backs off.
The US Navy is preparing for war in the Persian Gulf. The Iranians just never learn (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-navy-is-preparing-for-war-in-the-persian-gulf-the-iranians-just-never-learn/ar-AA1e7zfA?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3ffb8715f49141e99fd1b2ef626a7450&ei=4)
On the other hand, I've generally found David Axe to be a blow hard.

[Asturias56]

Another war in the Midle east? 16 months before a Presidential Election? I doubt it....................

[GeeRam]

Is this Russia **** stirring the Iranians into doing something to draw away US munitions/equipment support going to Ukraine?

[Asturias56]

Probably the Iranians lending a helping hand and assuming that attention may be elsewhere

[ORAC]

An official has confirmed that the USA is readying plans to place armed US Marines and navy sailors aboard commercial ships in the Middle East to deter Iran from seizing ships. The plan could be executed as soon as this month.

This is considered as an "elevated response" to the consistent harassments.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/03/armed-marines-iran-ship-seizures/

U.S. moves to put Marines on commercial ships to stop Iranian seizures

The plan, if approved, would represent a remarkable escalation in the long-running feud between Washington and Tehran that could put their militaries in direct confrontation

[Asturias56]

"USA is readying plans to place armed US Marines and navy sailors aboard commercial ships "

That sort of thing normally doesn't end well - there are all sorts of issues about the non-combatants on the ships, the ships themselves aren't designed to fight and the poor sods selected are really sacrificial lambs if it's anything other than a bunch of Somali type pirates. If its quasi state actors on the other side you can finish up hostages.

[albatross]

Does anyone remember the “reflagging” of tankers to the US registry during the Iran/Iraq War?
A friend was a Tanker Capt. during that period and his ship was attacked during the war.
He had some interesting tales to tell of that period of his career.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanker_War

Unrelated question…anyone have a good link to Admiralty Law…Specifically “The duty to render aid” and “The right to claim safe haven”.
They used to be an easy google or other search engine search but I was trying to find them the other day and aside from links to multitudinous $$$ Law firms I couldn’t find anything useful.
It all came up in a discussion about how Admiralty Law was and is also applicable to aviation.
(My search was started due to a recent event where a pilot, faced with rapidly developing thunderstorms, landed his small aircraft on a private airstrip as his safest option. The airstrip is PPR ( Prior Permission Required ) and the owner went ballistic, threatening to charge the fellow with trespass and demanding a large landing fee for landing on his grass airstrip. The airstrip is listed in the chart supplement , has an identifier and appears on aviation charts.
This line of thunderstorms did produce some violent weather including hail and a small tornado touchdown about 40 miles away which caused significant damage.

[Lonewolf_50]

The War of Words continues.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it threatened to open fire on U.S. Marine Corps and Navy helicopters covering a group of American warships as they passed through the volatile Strait of Hormuz (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/drone-boat-leading-navy-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-a-sign-of-things-to-come) recently, prompting them to land. The U.S. Navy told The War Zone that no U.S. helicopters headed back to their ships while supporting the transit for any other reason than to refuel.
A bit more at the article, but it's mostly hot air.
Pentagon denies supposed incident with Iranian navy in Strait of Hormuz (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pentagon-denies-supposed-incident-with-iranian-navy-in-strait-of-hormuz/ar-AA1fA67m?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=804f2cb63ef941748f0b013898ff770e&ei=8)

But the tensions have ratcheted up.

[Lonewolf_50]

In another bit of aviation content: Iran's Reaper variant. What the heck, if you are going to copy, copy the best.

Iran unveils armed drone resembling America's MQ-9 Reaper and says it could potentially reach Israel | AP News
​​​​​​​ (https://apnews.com/article/iran-drone-reaper-israel-us-tensions-81155fbc39238b09d2cd0fd54237aba0)In this photo released by the Iranian Presidency Office, President Ebrahim Raisi, second right, listens to Chief of Aviation Industries of Armed Forces Gen. Afshin Khajehfard, as Defense Minister Gen. Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani, right, listens, during a ceremony unveiling a drone called the Mohajer-10, Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023.
https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/default/bf2d825/2147483647/strip/true/crop/6000x4001+0+0/resize/599x399!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2Fc2%2Fa3%2Fd3edea7c93b 9b4920663d00a7550%2Fc473930f3dae43adb72214dc29bb4ff9
https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/default/24068f6/2147483647/strip/true/crop/6000x4001+0+0/resize/599x399!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2Fb5%2F80%2Fc04912ba6be 707b9673f9dd683bf%2Ff36055b9e7a84e89bf1cf1f195c6a3f9
https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/default/6121433/2147483647/strip/true/crop/6000x3999+0+0/resize/599x399!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2Fa2%2F97%2F34fb24709ca bb0363fd6bd7d94d0%2Fb9de0ef7b6104d93a2a1becf43f34856
Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency published a photograph of the drone, called the Mohajer-10, on display at a conference marking Defense Industry Day with what appeared to be smoke-machine fog underneath it.
“Mohajer” means “immigrant” in Farsi and has been a drone line manufactured by the Islamic Republic since 1985.
IRNA said the drone is able to fly up to 24,000 feet with a speed of 210 kph (130 mph), carrying a bomb payload of up to 300 kilograms (660 pounds). It also said the drone could carry electronic surveillance equipment and a camera. Iran’s hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, a protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also viewed the drone on Tuesday.
“Today, we can firmly introduce Iran as an advanced and technologic nation to the world,” Raisi said in comments aired on state television.
He reiterated Iran’s stance about friendly relations with “all countries in the world,” adding that Iran’s armed forces will cut off any hand that will reaches out in an attempt to invade Iran, state TV reported.
The Associated Press could not immediately verify the claims about the drone’s capabilities, though an arm of state television shared a video of it taking off from a runway. Long-range drones like the Reaper also require ground stations and satellite communications.

Officials in Israel, which flies its own long-range, high endurance drones, did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday.
Iran has in the past captured U.S. drones or pieces of them, but there’s no evidence that it has taken a General Atomics’ Reaper, which is flown by the U.S. Air Force and allied American nations as a “hunter-killer” drone that can operate at high altitudes for long hours and follow a target before attacking. North Korea in July showed off drones mirroring the Reaper (https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-jong-un-shoigu-parade-037cb0dca2dda580dbdb3037dfd724a5), possibly designed from publicly available information about the aircraft.
In December 2011, Iran seized an RQ-170 Sentinel flown by the CIA to monitor Iranian nuclear sites after it entered Iranian airspace from neighboring Afghanistan. Iran later reverse-engineered the drone to create their own variants.

In 2019, Iran shot down a U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk in the Strait of Hormuz (https://apnews.com/article/e4316eb989d5499c9828350de8524963) amid high tensions over its collapsed nuclear deal with world powers.

The Reaper also carries special significance for Iran, as one reportedly carried out the 2020 strike in Baghdad that killed Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general in its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. (https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-tehran-international-news-iraq-ali-khamenei-5597ff0f046a67805cc233d5933a53ed)

Iran separately said it had provided two types of ballistic missiles to its army and the Guard on Tuesday, including one named for Soleimani.

[Asturias56]

"In another bit of aviation content: Iran's Reaper variant. What the heck, if you are going to copy, copy the best."

Absolutely - why take all that pain of re-inventing the wheel. Ever seen the PLA(N) deck crews on their carriers? Must have spent years watching "Top Gun"

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/uk-france-and-germany-refuse-to-lift-sanctions-on-iran-under-nuclear-deal

UK, France and Germany refuse to lift sanctions on Iran under nuclear deal

Tehran in ‘too serious a breach’ of 2015 deal to lift sanctions under clause that would allow ballistic missile trade

[Asturias56]

Article in last weeks Economist reckons the bulk of the population has given up on the mullahs - they're not about to revolt immediately but it now just a sullen get -through-today attitude everywhere

[artee]

Article in last weeks Economist reckons the bulk of the population has given up on the mullahs - they're not about to revolt immediately but it now just a sullen get -through-today attitude everywhere
I think that's been the case for quite a while.

[Lonewolf_50]

Perhaps not just in Iran.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1703664957588484160?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


An unknown object crashed following by an explosion in Gorgan, Golestan Province of Iran.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/827x792/image_054caa0b0c8f7edd3c7552984eaa5e91210e7171.jpeg


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x1280/image_a3ddb762d1590d8bdfdd50b8d1941e4b460161a7.jpeg


Iranian media report that a "missile test" gone wrong and caused the incident.

I mean, you see huge shrapnel pieces in the city, you see unexploded 107mm, what kind of "missile test" were they conducting?

Someone ironically said: "They mistakenly targeted the Gorgan with missiles"


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x1109/image_3d50348f5741abfbf43bacd8595d31d11869be5b.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/saudi-arabia-if-iran-gets-a-nuclear-weapon-we-will-follow-suit-5fx7pmgdp

Saudi Arabia: If Iran gets a nuclear weapon so will we

Saudi Arabia will develop a nuclear weapon if Iran, its main regional rival, succeeds in producing one of its own, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said.

In an interview last night with Fox News, the Saudi crown prince and de facto leader of the country said that he would not allow Tehran to be the only confirmed nuclear power in the Middle East.

“If they get one, we have to get one,” he said when asked how Riyadh would react if Iran was confirmed to be a nuclear power, threatening what could become a new nuclear arms race……

[Asturias56]

"Saudi crown prince and de facto leader of the country said that he would not allow Tehran to be the only confirmed nuclear power in the Middle East."

he's forgotten the Israelis. and Pakistan - who were in CENTO for a while

[Lonewolf_50]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/saudi-arabia-if-iran-gets-a-nuclear-weapon-we-will-follow-suit-5fx7pmgdp
Saudi Arabia: If Iran gets a nuclear weapon so will we
“If they get one, we have to get one,” he said when asked how Riyadh would react if Iran was confirmed to be a nuclear power, threatening what could become a new nuclear arms race……
Makes perfect sense to me.
The folks in Pakistan could doubtless use a cash infusion, and so will be able to provide a few at a reasonable price.
Who's Next?
https://youtu.be/oRLON3ddZIw

[Asturias56]

Makes perfect sense to me.
The folks in Pakistan could doubtless use a cash infusion, and so will be able to provide a few at a reasonable price.
Who's Next?
https://youtu.be/oRLON3ddZIw

On Trustpilot a certain Mr Kim Jong Un gave them a 5star rating " yes they were expensive but I don't think anyone else could have provided such a nice nuclear weapons programme in the time frame. And it works!! Totally satisfied. They're very discreet."

[Asturias56]

As for Tom Lehrer you can download al his songs for free at https://tomlehrersongs.com/

[Lonewolf_50]

Iran and their Houthi proxies are expanding the conflict to the economic zone ... I think that the J Post is reasonably OK source, but add grains of salt if need be.
The Israeli army has confirmed that the Yemeni political-military movement, Houthi, hijacked the ship Galaxy Leader. The incident occurred near Yemen in the southern Red Sea. "This is a severe event at a global level. It involves a ship that departed Turkey, headed for India, bearing an international civilian crew, without any Israelis," reported the Tel Aviv armed forces.

On Sunday, the Yemeni Houthi militia, an ally of Iran, seized a merchant ship in the Red Sea.

An Israeli Businessman Has Shares in the Company
The ship, registered under the Bahamian flag, is operated by Japan but is owned by a British company. This company is partially owned by the Israeli businessman Rami Unger. The office of the Israeli prime minister referred to the incident as "another act of Iranian terror." The merchant ship, the Galaxy Leader, transporting cargo from Turkey to India, did not carry any crew members from Israel, as the "Jerusalem Post" reported.

Netanyahu Accuses Iran
As reported by Reuters, the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described this event as "another Iranian act of terrorism." The statement emphasized that this is proof of Iran's escalating hostile actions against citizens of the free world, compromising the safety of international navigation.

Israeli Ships in the Crosshairs
Reports on the news channel associated with the Houthis suggest that not only ships flying the Israeli flag will be attacked but also those owned or operated by Israeli companies.

The "Jerusalem Post" indicated that vessels carrying cargo owned by Israelis or even those partially owned by them could become targets. The newspaper stressed that "such a development would alter the nature of the hijacking from seizing small cargo during the war to acts of piracy."

[ORAC]

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1726641686309400988?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Footage of Houthi forces hijacking the ship Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea yesterday.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/covertshores/status/1726367039378670023?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Reminder that the #Israel linked ship Galaxy Leader passed close to the Iranian IRGC 'forward base' ship stationed in Red Sea shortly before its seizure by Houthi Movement in Yemen. #GALAXY_LEADER

IRGC has had ships stationed there years: hisutton.com/Saviz.html

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x682/image_0ccca79435f38066ec842fe9c12563ae5be95873.png
​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

IRGC vessel Behshad; would be a pity if something were to happen to it.
Praying Mantis, part Deux.
Is it coming?

[Lonewolf_50]

More fun in Iraq but the AC-130's may have dealt with the attackers. Iranian-backed militias are getting busy.
U.S. forces stationed at Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq were attacked early Tuesday prompting a U.S. military aircraft to strike back, officials said.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Iran-backed militias used close-range ballistic missiles against U.S. and coalition forces, resulting in "several non-serious injuries and some minor damage to infrastructure."
Reuters, citing two U.S. officials, reported that the attack resulted in eight injuries.
A U.S. military AC-130 aircraft in the area conducted a self-defense strike against an Iranian-backed militia vehicle and personnel involved in the attack, resulting in some "hostile fatalities."

U.S. forces have been attacked approximately 66 times since October 17, including 32 times in Iraq and 34 times in Syria. U.S. personnel have sustained approximately 62 injuries, not including Tuesday’s attack, which is still being evaluated.
The attacks that began on October 17 by Iraqi militia groups have reportedly been linked to the United States’ support for Israel in its retaliation against the Palestinian militant group Hamas, following its attack on Israel earlier in the month.
Tuesday's strike was the first reported by the U.S. in Iraq in more than two years.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/covertshores/status/1728427800091152397?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Iranian IRGC drone carrier Bagheri has been launched and has been photographed at sea. Trials are likely to take some time.

It has an angled deck and ski-jump. unusually, they are angled towards starboard.

Background: H I Sutton - Covert Shores (http://www.hisutton.com/Iran-IRGC-Drone-Carrier-Update.html)

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/998x683/image_dcec399c45427dcc58e905509a77ad0159c96c84.png

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x428/image_ae843c410e08e4315b6031c1614b8e85b3597835.png

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x602/image_81dcc0d835e187c002a893965c26b27b007e734e.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Posted here because it’s Iran behind it and Iranian ships providing surveillance and targeting data….

https://x.com/trenttelenko/status/1728439815614459997?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Houthi rebels in Yemen just hijacked the Zim Luanda container ship in the Red Sea, sailing from 🇮🇱 to China

It’s now clear that the Houthis are trying to implement a form of naval blockade against 🇮🇱

It’s the 3rd Israel-linked ship hijacked or attacked in 3 days.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x518/image_f219da06c02dd3984d9471356e500811e8cc253d.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/jengriffinfnc/status/1728954129236865481?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Two senior U.S. officials tell me that Houthi forces fired two ballistic missiles at the USS Mason this evening in the Gulf of Aden following the Navy’s arrest of 5 gunmen who tried to hijack the MV Central Park. The U.S. Navy successfully rescued the vessel.

​​​​​​​USS Mason, an Arleigh Burke Class destroyer, tracked the ballistic missiles as they approached but both missiles fell short splashing into the Gulf of Aden. This is viewed as significant escalation in Houthi threats to U.S. Navy vessels, according to multiple well placed sources.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/centcom/status/1728982985238843665?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
On Nov. 26, the USS MASON (DDG 87), with allied ships from our coalition counter-piracy task force (TF 151), and associated aircraft responded to a distress call from the M/V CENTRAL PARK, a commercial vessel, that they were under attack by an unknown entity.

Upon arrival, coalition elements demanded release of the vessel. Subsequently, five armed individuals debarked the ship and attempted to flee via their small boat. The MASON pursued the attackers resulting in their eventual surrender.

The crew of the M/V CENTRAL PARK is currently safe.

At approximately 0141 on Nov. 27 Sanaa time, two ballistic missiles were fired from Houthi controlled areas in Yemen toward the general location of the USS MASON (DDG 87) and M/V CENTRAL PARK. The missiles landed in the Gulf of Aden approximately ten nautical miles from the ships.

The USS MASON (DDG87), which is part of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, was concluding its response to the M/V CENTRAL PARK distress call at the time of the missile launches.

There was no damage or reported injuries from either vessel during this incident.

“Maritime domain security is essential to regional stability,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM commander. “We will continue to work with allies and partners to ensure the safety and security of international shipping lanes.”​​​​​​​

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x659/image_5e53671b02a34fe74065e26df1b649e66cd7fdb2.png

[havoc]

Iran is taking over the Strait of Hormuz islands – the only exit for US carrier Ike (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-is-taking-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-islands-the-only-exit-for-us-carrier-ike/ar-AA1kJIOq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=96b7170e9f194bc3965609b91808384e&ei=38)

For much of this year and before 7 October, naval gazers had about four areas to look at. First, the ongoing fight in the Black Sea with the Russian blockade weaponizing hunger despite regular Ukrainian successes there. The Russians were also keeping navies busy in the high north and the North Atlantic.Second, the Chinese have been repeatedly upping the ante in the South China Sea and then saying “but you did it” after each event. This has been region-wide but escalating and perhaps reached a head ten days ago when they deliberately turned on their active sonar next to an Australian warship with divers in the water. The Aussie divers were ‘lucky’ to only be injured.

Third, Critical Underwater Infrastructure (CUI) was starting to grab headlines as gas pipes, data cables and power interconnectors in various locations blew up or were severed.

Finally, we had the decades-old maritime presence in the Persian/Arabian Gulf (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/29/uss-dwight-d-eisenhower-persian-gulf-fifth-fleet/). There were operations way back in the ’80s such as Operations Prime Chance and Earnest Will to protect shipping there – and then Praying Mantis against covert Iranian minelaying, continuing on and off to this day with multiple countries and coalitions all chipping in under the watchful eye of the US Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain.



Post 7 October, the enormous US-led build-up of warships in the Eastern Med added a fifth front and whilst it has kept things limited there, for now, a sixth front has appeared in the Red Sea and beyond as Houthis fire missiles and drones towards Israel, hi-jack ships by helicopter in the southern Red Sea and employ Somalis to hijack ships by more traditional methods, albeit failed, in the Gulf of Aden.

Given the centrality of Iran to all of this, it is ironic that the one place that has been relatively quiet since 7 October has been the Gulf itself: even the traditional flashpoint, the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/), the only way in or out of the Gulf, which has Iran on one side of it.

Rather like an English sports team collapsing in the latter stages of a tournament – inevitable and so strangely reassuring – this is changing. Iran is now doubling down on its ‘ownership’ of three contested islands in the Strait, Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb.

This is particularly on point right now, as the US Navy aircraft carrier Dwight D Eisenhower and her accompanying escorts – the Ike carrier strike group – have just passed in through the Strait to the Gulf, accompanied by a French warship and joining several British ones already based out of Bahrain.

I won’t delve too deeply into the history of the islands, suffice it to say the UK formally withdrew from there almost exactly fifty-two years ago to the day, leaving things in a state of flux. Iran moved its navy into Abu Musa before we’d finished packing. Only a few days later, an understandably aggrieved UAE – on the other side of the Strait – took their historically founded counterclaim to the United Nations Security Council which “deferred consideration of this matter to a later date”.

The headline in December 1971 could have been “UK leaves mess, UN fails to resolve” and not for the first time.

The dispute has rumbled on in many forms ever since, but recent developments do suggest that now is the perfect time for those who thrive off disruption and chaos to get involved on as many fronts as possible.


https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1kJwxg.img?w=534&h=334&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-is-taking-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-islands-the-only-exit-for-us-carrier-ike/ar-AA1kJIOq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=96b7170e9f194bc3965609b91808384e&ei=38&fullscreen=true#image=2)
Aircraft carrier Dwight D Eisenhower transit the Strait of Hormuz inbound to the Gulf on Sunday 26 Nov. The Ike and her group are part of the US response to the Israel-Hamas war - Information Technician Second Class Ruskin Naval/US Navy© Provided by The TelegraphThe latest twist is for Tehran to offer up free plots of land to families interested in living on the islands. These families would be further incentivised by building loans and even exemptions from military service. Estimates based on the number of plots to be sold, should they be inhabited by Iranian families of average size (3.3), would see the population grow from around 4000 to c1.7 million. That would be a powerful argument that the islands should be Iranian territory.

Not surprisingly, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries oppose what Iran is doing. China and Russia have also chipped in. In December 2022, China’s view on Iran’s general behaviour towards the islands was, “bilateral negotiations in accordance with the rules of international law, and to resolve this issue in accordance with international legitimacy are required”. This resulted in the Chinese ambassador in Tehran (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/11/iran-summons-china-envoy-over-disputed-islands-with) receiving ‘a visit’.

More recently, Russia issued a joint statement with the GCC saying that they “support all peaceful efforts, including the initiative of the UAE and its endeavours to reach a peaceful solution to the issue through bilateral negotiations or the International Court of Justice, in accordance with the rules of international law and the United Nations Charter”. This earned the Russian ambassador a ‘summoning’ in Tehran.

Ranking of diplomatic tellings-off aside, you know that when both China and Russia are suggesting an internationally agreed solution over yours, your plan is unlikely to gain much traction.

Why does any of this matter to us in the UK?

Primarily for the same reason the region has mattered for decades now; because of the flow of hydrocarbons from there to us. Hormuz itself is totemic in this regard as it’s the gateway and if it were to be closed, for whatever reason, petrol stations in the UK would start closing a few weeks later. This is why both the US and the UK maintain naval presence there; to attempt to ensure stability in a resource-critical part of the world. You can throw regional alliances, realpolitik, intelligence relations, weapons sales and historical baggage into the mix, but this is reason number one.

And the contested islands sit squarely in the middle of this strategic chokepoint.

Among the major trade chokepoints around the world Hormuz is unique. Malacca, Suez, Panama, Gibraltar, Danish, Bab el-Mandeb and Dover all have alternative routes around them. Of the remaining two, Hormuz and Bosporus, Hormuz is the only one bordered by a non-NATO state that has dedicated billions of dollars to developing military assets to be able to close it.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1kJGBK.img?w=512&h=320&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-is-taking-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-islands-the-only-exit-for-us-carrier-ike/ar-AA1kJIOq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=96b7170e9f194bc3965609b91808384e&ei=38&fullscreen=true#image=2)
This US Ohio-class SSGN was last seen headed south through the Suez Canal on Nov 5. She remains somewhere in the region, with 100+ Tomahawk cruise missiles, a mini-submarine and a force of Navy SEAL frogmen aboard - Handout/AFP© Provided by The TelegraphAnd this the Iranians could do. Between their mobile ballistic missile launchers, thousands of fast attack craft and minelayers, they have the capability. It’s worth noting that this remains extremely unlikely – they need trade flowing outbound as much as everyone else needs it inbound. (As an aside, sea currents there ensure many of those mines would end up on their coast.) Holding the islands makes the Iranians militarily stronger: having their sovereignty over them recognised makes them legally stronger.

So what do we do about it? The same as we’ve always done – maintain a diplomatic, naval and military presence there to deter and be ready to react if that doesn’t work. This is exactly why the Ike and her group are in the Gulf right now and not chasing pirates or Houthis further to the west.

It’s the same principle the USS Gerald R Ford group, now joined by Royal Navy destroyer HMS Duncan (https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3599882/gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-sails-with-hms-duncan-for-mediterranean-oper/), is employing off the Israeli coast – deterring and preparing. Nothing says ‘don’t do anything dumb’ more forcefully than 110,000 tons of nuclear-powered diplomacy with an air wing the size of most national air forces embarked. Houthi shenanigans aside, this seems to be working. In fact, since October 7 there has been a near day-to-day demonstration of the utility of carrier-based air power. Those who are frustrated with the speed of advance of our carriers have a point; those who write them off as obsolete do not.

At a more strategic level, only yesterday in London the Cross-party Members of Parliament, Iran experts and representatives of the Iranian democratic opposition coalition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) met to discuss this. One subject of discussion was the UK perhaps listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the Iranian theocracy’s shock troops – separate from the regular Iranian armed forces – as a terrorist organisation. Getting both the US and the UK to take a more robust stance in recognising the Iranian Regime’s centrality to malfeasance in the region and, critically, within their own countries, ran through the whole meeting.

Iran is the threat behind Hamas, behind the Houthis and behind Hezbollah. Iran is the primary menace in the Gulf, not only to Western interests but others like the Saudis and the UAE. Iran has threatened to assassinate prominent US politicians, and the “al-Quds” force of the IRGC operates, to a greater or lesser degree undercover, everywhere in the world.

If Western governments fail to take this threat seriously for fear of something – elections, economies, their own shadows – they may fail to maintain the maritime power which is the practical countermeasure to the threat. This has been shown these past weeks by a relatively quiet Israel-Lebanon border, by Houthi missiles knocked out of the sky over the Red Sea, by the fact that most of a Marine Expeditionary Unit is poised to act, that a SEAL Team or Tomahawk missiles could pop up out of the deep blue sea (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/07/us-ohio-class-submarine-ssgn-navy-seals-iran-houthi-israel/) without warning anywhere across the Middle East. It’s been shown on a smaller scale by the presence of British and French and many other nations’ warships and marines also.

It’s been said many times in many ways, but money spent preparing for war is not usually money wasted. And Ukraine notwithstanding, in a lot of cases the war to prepare for will be one fought on and from the sea.

Tom Sharpe is a former Royal Navy officer and warship captain

[ORAC]

CENTCOM:

approximately 1100 (Sanaa time), while in the South Red Sea, the Arleigh-Burke Class Guided Missile Destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) shot down an Iranian-produced KAS-04 unmanned aerial vehicle launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

Although its intentions are not known, the UAV was heading toward the warship.

At the time of the shoot down, the USS Carney was escorting the USNS SUPPLY (Oiler) and another U.S. flagged and crewed ship carrying military equipment to the region.

There were no injuries to U.S. personnel and no damage to U.S. vessels.

[ORAC]

https://www.navylookout.com/hms-diamond-sent-to-the-gulf-in-response-to-rising-tension-in-the-middle-east/

HMS Diamond sent to the Gulf in response to rising tension in the Middle East

HMS Diamond will join US warships deployed in the Persian Gulf region as the risk of conflict and the threat to merchant shipping increases. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has said “it’s critical the UK bolsters our presence in the region”.…

The despatch of HMS Diamond is a significant statement of UK support for the US actions to deter Iran. The USN also has very high regard for the air defence capabilities of the Type 45 although it is unclear exactly what role she will play. If she does not enter the Gulf, she could be employed to protect merchant vessels in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden. The MoD says she is being deployed to help ensure the freedom of navigation of merchant vessels, around a hundred of which pass through the Strait of Hormuz on a typical day.

The Iranians have invested increasingly in UAVs, USVs, swarms of fast attack craft and mini-submarines. They are currently converting a merchant vessel into a large drone carrier complete with a ski ramp. The multi-faceted threat posed by missiles and non-conventional weapons and platforms in the Persian Gulf has never been more complex. There will be little opportunity for the carrier strike group to relax in such a demanding environment and relatively confined waters. Iran will, however, be forced to think twice about any further attempts to enflame conflict in the Middle East.

RFA Lyme Bay and RFA Argus (officially the Littoral Response Group, South) remain alongside in Limassol, Cyprus should they be needed, to support some kind of special forces or raiding operation, or more likely in a humanitarian aid or evacuation role. Increasingly it looks like they will not be required and it will be interesting to see if they resume their original planned passage through the Suez Canal and onto their forward base in Oman. Given the situation in the Red Sea, they would certainly require an escort and could possibly sail with HMS Diamond.

HMS Duncan continues to serve with Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1) in the Mediterranean and recently has been operating with the USS Gerald R Ford. There was speculation that Diamond would relieve her in this role but the Gulf appears to be the priority. HMS Duncan is due home for Christmas having already been away for a total of nine months of this year…..

One area of concern is HMS Diamond’s mechanical reliability. It is no reflection on the ship’s company but she has a track record of breaking down, including on her way to the Gulf in 2017 (https://www.navylookout.com/type-45-destroyer-issues-continue-hms-diamond-breaks-down-on-gulf-deployment/) and during the CSG21 deployment (https://www.navylookout.com/hms-diamond-suffers-serious-defect-during-carrier-strike-group-deployment/). These issues have never been completely cured and Diamond has yet to undergo the Power Improvement Package…..

[ORAC]

https://x.com/intelwalrus/status/1730009299550605389?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Ok this is cool. The US Navy's Task Force 59 (part of NAVCENT in the mid east) published a video of a successful seaborne launch and strike on a practice target with a switchblade loitering munition from one of their autonomous T-38 Devil Ray USVs.

[Asturias56]

"These issues have never been completely cured and Diamond has yet to undergo the Power Improvement Package….."

well as long as she is brought back before it gets hot out there....................

[ORAC]

This is the area HMS Diamond is heading towards….

https://x.com/centcom/status/1731424734829773090?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
US CENTCOM:

​​​​​​​Today, there were four attacks against three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea. These three vessels are connected to 14 separate nations. The Arleigh-Burke Class destroyer USS CARNEY responded to the distress calls from the ships and provided assistance.

At approximately 9:15 a.m. Sanaa time, the CARNEY detected an anti-ship ballistic missile attack fired from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen toward the M/V UNITY EXPLORER, impacting in the vicinity of the vessel. UNITY EXPLORER is a Bahamas flagged, U.K. owned and operated, bulk cargo ship crewed by sailors from two nations. The CARNEY was conducting a patrol in the Red Sea and detected the attack on the UNITY EXPLORER.

At approximately 12 p.m., and while in international waters, CARNEY engaged and shot down a UAV launched from Houthi controlled areas in Yemen. The drone was headed toward CARNEY although its specific target is not clear. We cannot assess at this time whether the Carney was a target of the UAVs. There was no damage to the U.S. vessel or injuries to personnel.

In a separate attack at approximately 12:35 p.m., UNITY EXPLORER reported they were struck by a missile fired from Houthi controlled areas in Yemen. CARNEY responded to the distress call. While assisting with the damage assessment, CARNEY detected another inbound UAV, destroying the drone with no damage or injuries on the CARNEY or UNITY EXPLORER. UNITY EXPLORER reports minor damage from the missile strike.

At approximately 3:30 p.m. the M/V NUMBER 9 was struck by a missile fired from Houthi controlled areas in Yemen while operating international shipping lanes in the Red Sea. The Panamanian flagged, Bermuda and U.K. owned and operated, bulk carrier reported damage and no casualties.

At approximately 4:30 p.m., the M/V SOPHIE II, sent a distress call stating they were struck by a missile. CARNEY again responded to the distress call and reported no significant damage. While en route to render support, CARNEY shot down a UAV headed in its direction. SOPHIE II is a Panamanian flagged bulk carrier, crewed by sailors from eight countries.

These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security. They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world. We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran. The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners.

[jolihokistix]

Houthis fielding some sophisticated stuff recently.

Had to check the timelines throughout this article to finally work out what "approximately 12 pm" in the third paragraph actually meant.

[ORAC]

Following reports of an attack on a US warship in the Red Sea, former Obama CIA director and defense secretary Leon Panetta was asked last night how the US should respond to the increasing number of attacks by Iran's proxy groups against U.S. forces in the Middle East:

"I would be much more aggressive," Panetta said. "I want to go after those who are firing missiles at our troops and make sure they understand that when they fire a missile--they are going to die."

[Asturias56]

Hmmm - does that mean the USAF will have something armed circling above the Yemen ready to fire the instant they detect a launch?

[Lonewolf_50]

Houthis fielding some sophisticated stuff recently. Provided by their dear friends in Teheran, no doubt.
Following reports of an attack on a US warship in the Red Sea, former Obama CIA director and defense secretary Leon Panetta was asked last night how the US should respond to the increasing number of attacks by Iran's proxy groups against U.S. forces in the Middle East:

"I would be much more aggressive," Panetta said. "I want to go after those who are firing missiles at our troops and make sure they understand that when they fire a missile--they are going to die." Emotionally, I feel the same way. Not sure what the snags are at the practical level.
Hmmm - does that mean the USAF will have something armed circling above the Yemen ready to fire the instant they detect a launch? There's a stupid question, but the answer is no.

[ORAC]

U.S. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan stated on Monday that the United States is currently attempting to build a maritime task force of partner nations to provide potection to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, as a response to recent attacks by the Houthi.

[Lonewolf_50]

U.S. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan stated on Monday that the United States is currently attempting to build a maritime task force of partner nations to provide potection to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, as a response to recent attacks by the Houthi. Deja vu to the reflagging of tankers in the PG about 35 years ago.
Same stuff, different day. :p

[safetypee]

… provide potection to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, as a response to recent attacks by the Houthi.

'Forte 13' RQ-4B Global Hawk heading South. Med - Jordan - Saudi -

[ORAC]

Last night. Video.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1732944013798576378?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING:

The Green Zone and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad are under attack.

At least 10 to 12 blasts have been heard

[Lonewolf_50]

Gee, it's like the 00's all over again. :p

Back to Iran (who may be complicit in the attacks vis a vis "Shiite Militias"): there as an interesting article I read over the weekend about "The 7 Reasons Iran Won’t Fight for Hamas (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/04/iran-hamas-gaza-israel-regional-war/)While I am a little skeptical, the author argues that Iran didn't have any forewarning of the attack (in detail as regards time and place) and were thus on the back foot in terms of how to respond. In summary (article probably behind a paywall) :
First, the Islamic Republic of Iran cannot rally society to engage in a new war as it did during the war with Iraq in the 1980s.

Second, the moderate faction in the Iranian government has been warning against Iran’s direct intervention in the war. Indeed, the war in Gaza has deepened political cleavages in Tehran.

Third, Israel’s apparent failure in deterring Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7 does not alter Tehran’s strategic calculation toward Israel.

Fourth, contrary to the conventional wisdom, neither Hamas nor even Hezbollah is Iran’s proxy; it would be more accurate to think of them as Iran’s nonstate allies. There is no top-down relationship between Tehran and Hamas.

Fifth, Iran’s strategic partners in Moscow and Beijing have not declared their full support for Hamas.

Sixth, there exists a deep belief among influential decision-makers in Iran that the Arab sheikhdoms of the Persian Gulf would welcome a large-scale war between Iran and Israel.

The last and the most significant factor influencing Iran’s apparent reluctance to engage in war is Khamenei’s specific point of view toward regional conflicts. Contrary to the mainstream view in the West, Iran’s supreme leader approaches responses to regional conflicts from a realist standpoint rather than an ideological one. Having served as the president of the Islamic Republic during the devastating war with Iraq, he is acutely aware of the consequences of war, especially with the U.S.

These seven interconnected reasons explain the Islamic Republic’s reluctance to involve itself in the war on behalf of Hamas.

None of this implies that Iran is willing to abandon Hamas, its strategic asset in Gaza. Rather than standing idly by, Tehran is likely to continue applying pressure on both Israel and the U.S.—through Hezbollah and its Shiite proxies in Iraq and Syria—without escalating the conflict to a full-scale regional war. While the points were reasonably well supported, the Houthi active participation in trying to disrupt Israel related trade can hardly be viewed in isolation, given the depth of support and training that they receive from Iran.

[Asturias56]

They're Yemenis - they 'll take the money and arms from Iran but oI doubt they'd take day to day direction - hell they have enough trouble organising their own people

[Big Pistons Forever]

The Houthi’s and Hezbollah army’s are almost totally dependent on Iran supplies of arms. Iran may not issue tactical directives but is wholly involved in Strategic ones. Neither of these groups are going to piss off Iran so it would seem that the current actions have the tacit approval of Iran.

Iran is playing a dangerous game and a hit on an American warship with American casualties would be a game changer

[GlobalNav]

The Houthi’s and Hezbollah army’s are almost totally dependent on Iran supplies of arms. Iran may not issue tactical directives but is wholly involved in Strategic ones. Neither of these groups are going to piss off Iran so it would seem that the current actions have the tacit approval of Iran.

Iran is playing a dangerous game and a hit on an American warship with American casualties would be a game changer
Dangerous for everyone but the Iranians, unfortunately.

[Asturias56]

" it would seem that the current actions have the tacit approval of Iran."

Absolutely agree - the Iranian's, like the Chinese, are happy about anything and anyone who distracts the USA from them

But there's always a tendency by the side being distracted that it's all a finely tuned scheme when in fact it's a chaotic mob of various groups, all with their own agenda (often mutually exclusive) jostling for position.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/etatmajorfr/status/1733633508344574091?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Interception dans la soirée de deux drones en provenance du Yémen par la FREMM Languedoc en mer Rouge.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1009x683/image_185787cebb20c0eb9a91ad7b9c8edd5936ee28d2.png

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x882/image_ae5902af44cb33e34f33e45578136ecfd9d3da53.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/decis_/status/1733800934658981936?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Fascinating thread for my English speaking colleagues not to miss. FS Languedoc shot down two drones yesterday, using two of its sixteen Aster 15 SAM. @AudrandS understands that’s about 2 million euros spent on threats probably worth less than 10% of that.

Surely that’s a better outcome than losing a warship, not to mention its crew, but that does not alter one essential fact: having to spend an eighth of your SAM (and two millions bucks!) to counter a low level threat is simply UNSUSTAINABLE for your average European naval force.

As far as the #MarineNationale is concerned, this situation is made more dire by at least three factors: limited training in the use of « complex ammo », limited number of VLS packed with SAM and complete absence of cost-effective AD solutions (CWIS, quad-packed VLS…).

Further down the line, the introduction RAPIDFire 40mm naval guns will help with *some* of those (as well as perhaps replacing some Aster 15 with cheaper, smaller Mica VL missiles) but the truth is there’s only so much you can do with 32 VLS…

And platforms kept close or under the 6,000t threshold, particularly in contested environments. Soon enough the choice will be to either avoid these areas - but then, what’s your navy for? - or risk an HMS Sheffield like tragedy.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/centreground6/status/1733807273741353077?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


If only Asters cost €1m each. The reality is they cost more than €3.5m

[ORAC]

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1733560781231251484?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


BREAKING:

The Houthi rebels in Yemen today announced that they will start attacking all ships which are on their way to, or departing, Israeli ports.

They are trying to use the narrow Bab Al-Mandab Strait to impose a maritime blockade of Israel

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1101/image_a5b48098a385c8c2452acc970e1d05540dc50997.png
​​​​​​​

[Big Pistons Forever]

BREAKING:

The Houthi rebels in Yemen today announced that they will start attacking all ships which are on their way to, or departing, Israeli ports.

They are trying to use the narrow Bab Al-Mandab Strait to impose a maritime blockade of Israel

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1101/image_a5b48098a385c8c2452acc970e1d05540dc50997.png


Well that ups the stakes for everyone. I can’t see how the West can let that stand

[keith williams]

Time to invent a drone-killing drone. Will be more costly than a commercial toy, but much cheaper than a SAM.

[JeanKhul]

The French frigate "Languedoc" shot down two incoming drones, which were obviosuly a threat.

They were coming from Yemen... so the Red Sea is unfortunately becoming more and more dangerous for merchant shipping, which is going to cause great concern for the world economies.

Anyway, as US NAVY does acknowledge : "... the drone shootdowns are an expensive endeavor. The video, produced by the crew of the destroyer USS Carney, shows the ship launching multiple SM-2 or Evolved Sea Sparrow missiles from its VLS cell launchers. Depending on purchase batch and missile type, these rounds are priced at about $1.0-2.1 million, about 50-100 times the price of a Shahed-136.

Well done to the "Marine Nationale", in any case.

French frigate downs drones over Red Sea: military (france24.com) (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231210-french-frigate-downs-drones-over-red-sea-military)

[GeeRam]

They are trying to use the narrow Bab Al-Mandab Strait to impose a maritime blockade of Israel


It's not exactly a blockade of Israel though, just a potential partial blockade, to their port at Eliat.
Israel still has plenty of port access on its Med coasts.
Granted for stuff it imports from Far East etc., it will be a problem of course.

[Asturias56]

The Israelis won't accept that argument (nor should they) - that's the same as the one that kicked off the 6 day war

[Flap Track 6]

Fascinating thread for my English speaking colleagues not to miss. FS Languedoc shot down two drones yesterday, using two of its sixteen Aster 15 SAM. @AudrandS understands that’s about 2 million euros spent on threats probably worth less than 10% of that

It's nice to see that your high end area air defence system has the capability to successfully take out low end threats as well. A bit like using Sea Dart against helicopters.
No doubt the munitions expended were near their end of life date anyway.
I expect once HMS Diamond reaches the Red Sea we will see the RN taking the opportunity to undertake some combat stress testing of Sea Viper.

[GlobalNav]

Time to invent a drone-killing drone. Will be more costly than a commercial toy, but much cheaper than a SAM.
Time to start using a few Houthi-killing warheads.

[Lonewolf_50]

Time to start using a few Houthi-killing warheads. The Saudis did that for a while.
Are they on Holiday at the moment?

[Lonewolf_50]

In Other news, Iran's starting to talk a little smack ... but consider the source (J Post)The continuation of the Gaza war will lead to a regional explosion, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-776948) told the Doha Forum on Monday, as he explained that the scope of the conflict had already expanded to include Lebanon and Yemen.

“At any moment there is a possibility of a big explosion in the region, one not controllable by any party,” he said as he spoke through an English language translator in a virtual interview conducted by CNN’s Becky Anderson. The foreign minister pointed to attacks against US bases in Iraq and Syria, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea (https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-777388), and the violence on Israel’s northern border as proof that regional violence had expanded beyond the Gaza border.

“At least every week, we receive a message from the US telling us that US bases in Syria and Iraq are targeted by some groups,” Amirabdollahian said. These groups are “defending the Arab and Muslim people of Gaza; that is why they are targeting US bases in Syria and Iraq.” I am not seeing the logic, but then, I'm not Persian. :p

[TWT]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/cruise-missile-yemen-strikes-tanker-ship-us-officials-2023-12-12/


WASHINGTON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - An anti-ship cruise missile launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen struck a commercial tanker vessel, causing a fire and damage but no casualties, the U.S. military said in a statement.

The attack on the tanker STRINDA took place about 60 nautical miles (111km) north of the Bab al-Mandab Strait connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden at about 2100 GMT, a U.S. official told Reuters. A second U.S. official said the STRINDA was able to move under its own power in the hours after the attack.

[SWBKCB]

It's not exactly a blockade of Israel though, just a potential partial blockade, to their port at Eliat.
Israel still has plenty of port access on its Med coasts.
Granted for stuff it imports from Far East etc., it will be a problem of course.

Does much go through the Suez Canal heading to Israel?

[ORAC]

Reference the STRINDA:

“In a decisive blow against Israel, the Houthis struck a Norwegian-owned, Indian-crewed, tanker ship that was carrying vegetable oil from Malaysia to Italy”…

[Asturias56]

Reference the STRINDA:

“In a decisive blow against Israel, the Houthis struck a Norwegian-owned, Indian-crewed, tanker ship that was carrying vegetable oil from Malaysia to Italy”…


Probably aiming at something else - the CEP on their kit is truly abysmal or rather VAST

[Lonewolf_50]

“In a decisive blow against Israel, the Houthis struck a Norwegian-owned, Indian-crewed, tanker ship that was carrying vegetable oil from Malaysia to Italy”… If it wasn't so serious (people shooting missiles at merchant ships going about their business) it would be comical.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/etatmajorfr/status/1734555052600140260?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/572x736/image_618cd5e094723ed5d6f8a53c730f3cefa83543ec.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1398/image_9a8d564746ede56b2e4c8c3ffc3aaa6650499f75.png

[T28B]

Messages I’m getting from Iran:

“Tehran on verge of collapse.

Leaked: Basij leader there has admitted the possibility of Tehran's fall tonight is extremely high and that the Presidential palace may be attacked. One year later, it appears that this did not happen.
(not as a mod nor admin)
I ask any of you: if you've heard rumor or news about the Houthi efforts to force the ships of other nations into their ports, please raise them here.
That sort of thing will get many nations interested in the security of their merchant shipping in the Red Sea, and will likely lead to increased Naval and other Military activity (aviation or otherwise).

[GlobalNav]

Former US CENTCOM COMMANDERS

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/former-centcom-commanders-us-strikes-houthis/

[Lonewolf_50]

“We have no track record of anyone successfully deterring the Houthis, so we don’t know how they’ll react to force,” said Michael Knights (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/michael-knights) of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They want to be known as the biggest risk taker in the Axis of Resistance and the only one going toe-to-toe with the U.S.”

Unlike Iraq and Syria, the U.S. military has no forces in Yemen. Experts also differ over whether the Houthis are largely acting on their own with Iranian-supplied weapons or are being directed to attack by Tehran.

Some former commanders said, however, that there are legitimate military targets controlled by the Houthis in Yemen and the U.S. does not need to wait for the group to launch still more attacks on commercial shipping before taking military action.

“You could take action against coastal radars, coastal gun systems, missile systems, those kinds of sites,” said Votel. “There are very clear military targets.”

When Votel commanded CENTCOM, the U.S. struck radar sites in Yemen in 2016 in response to missile attacks (https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/News-Article-View/Article/973535/us-responds-to-missile-attacks-targets-3-radar-sites-on-yemens-coast/), including toward the USS Mason, and the Pentagon cited the need to protect shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb as a reason for its actions.

Taking military action could have its challenges. Some of the systems may be mobile or could be resupplied. But Votel said it could also have a practical and symbolic impact.

“It can degrade their capability in the near term, and at the same time, send a very clear message,” he said.
The messaging as regards any strikes needs to be packaged as part of an international response to the threats to shipping. The information war is as important as the kinetic means.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/16/shipping-companies-suspend-red-sea-traffic-after-yemen-rebel-attacks

Shipping companies suspend Red Sea traffic after Yemen rebel attacks

Two of the world’s largest shipping firms, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have said they are suspending passage through a Red Sea strait vital for global commerce, after Yemeni rebel attacks in the area…

German transport company Hapag-Lloyd said it was halting Red Sea container ship traffic until Monday, after the Houthis attacked one of its vessels. “Hapag-Lloyd is interrupting all container ship traffic across the Red Sea until Monday,” the company said in a statement sent to AFP.

The Danish firm Maersk made a similar announcement, a little earlier. “We have instructed all Maersk vessels in the area bound to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait to pause their journey until further notice,” it said.

Maersk said this followed a “near-miss incident involving Maersk Gibraltar yesterday” as well as Friday’s attack, in which the rebels struck a Hapag-Lloyd cargo ship in the Red Sea.

A US defence official identified it as the Liberia-flagged Al-Jasrah, a 368-metre (1,207-foot) container ship built in 2016.

“We are aware that something launched from a Houthi-controlled region of Yemen struck this vessel which was damaged, and there was a report of a fire,” the official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity so that he could discuss intelligence matters.

The US Central Command in the Middle East (Centcom) confirmed on X that “a UAV” l struck the Al-Jasrah causing a fire that was successfully extinguished.

A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson told AFP: “There has been an attack on one of our ships”. “It was en route from the Greek port of Piraeus to Singapore. There were no casualties and the ship was travelling onward to its destination”, he added.

Later in the day during a pro-Palestinian rally in the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, the rebels said they attacked two other ships in the area.

“Container ships MSC Palatium and MSC Alanya were targeted by two naval missiles as they were heading toward the Israeli entity,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a broadcast on the rebels’ television channel.

The rebels said that, in an earlier attack, the Maersk Gibraltar vessel was “targeted with a drone and the hit was direct”.

According to a US official, the missile missed.

Saree said the attack came after the ship’s crew “refused to respond to the calls of the Yemeni naval services”, and that it was intended as retaliation for the “oppression of the Palestinian people”.

Centcom said that the MSC Alanya was only threatened but not struck, while the Palatium was hit by one of two ballistic missiles fired.

In a statement posted 9 December on social media, the Houthis said they “will prevent the passage” of ships heading to Israel – regardless of ownership – if food and medicine are not allowed into besieged, Hamas-ruled Gaza….

[ORAC]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x2000/image_38d1459cd3a8bdb959ab67e7b4d5f59ad1ba0d03.jpeg

[tartare]

The messaging as regards any strikes needs to be packaged as part of an international response to the threats to shipping. The information war is as important as the kinetic means.

Answers the question I had - how easy would it be to strike the Houthis?
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging.

[Ninthace]

I suspect a drone launch would be a target of opportunity. One would have to lucky to catch one and the time to respond may well be less the flight time of the countermeasure. Do the associated logistics present a better opportunity?

[ORAC]

BP have announced they have temporarily suspended all shipments through the Red Sea and Suez canal until situation is resolved.

[jolihokistix]

Egypt is going to love the loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Not.

Perhaps the Houthis think that Egypt can/should bring more pressure to bear.

Iran seems to delight in causing nuisance at a distance, with layers of deniability, getting others to do their dirty work, "Not me mate!"

[Lonewolf_50]

Egypt is going to love the loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Not.
Perhaps the Houthis think that Egypt can/should bring more pressure to bear.
Iran seems to delight in causing nuisance at a distance, with layers of deniability, getting others to do their dirty work, "Not me mate!" Your first point is probably right, but it's probalby a vain hope.
As to Iran enjoying this: yes.
I suspect a drone launch would be a target of opportunity. One would have to lucky to catch one and the time to respond may well be less the flight time of the countermeasure. Do the associated logistics present a better opportunity? Remember the problems of Scud hunting in Desert Storm. Similar challenges apply, although there are some improved detection/ISR means these days.
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging. Yes. The trick is to see if there are any patterns.

[Flap Track 6]

Answers the question I had - how easy would it be to strike the Houthis?
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging.

Which is why you target Command and Control nodes, communications, storage, logistics and transportation infrastructure instead. Anyone got a Rivet Joint going spare?

[jolihokistix]

Pretty soon Iran could be sending them their latest export, spoofing equipment, recently being tested over Iraq.

[ORAC]

Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea

Dec. 18, 2023 |

The recent escalation in reckless Houthi attacks originating from Yemen threatens the free flow of commerce, endangers innocent mariners, and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade. Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this non-state actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters.

This is an international challenge that demands collective action. Therefore, today I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea.

Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC, the UN Security Council just met on this topic, and have resolved to do bloody **** all.

[Asturias56]

You don't have to work within the UN

[Lonewolf_50]

This is a threat to international commerce that impacts most of the nations on our planet.
And the UN are as useless as tits on a bull.

[DogTailRed2]

News reporting America preparing for air strikes on Houthi positions.

[Lonewolf_50]

Well, that was predictable, but what ever happened to OPSEC? :mad:

[DogTailRed2]

Well, that was predictable, but what ever happened to OPSEC? :mad:
Maybe it's deliberate. Tell them you are coming to get them and they will do two things. Come out for a fight and loose or, run away so job done?

[grizzled]

Maybe it's deliberate. Tell them you are coming to get them and they will do two things. Come out for a fight and loose or, run away so job done?

They may also issue retaliatory statements via various platforms, which they have now done. And doing so provides information. Nuff said.

[ORAC]

Looks like the naval coalition is falling apart due to control being in the hands of the White House and not DoD…

https://x.com/johnkonrad/status/1737956292436615453?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1737983305750827103?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​https://x.com/johnkonrad/status/1737923451019550812?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

that's hardly a well informed source ORAC - some nutty ex -driller...............

[ORAC]

3 separate sources noting that the French have pulled out - and I’ll add several other European countries have declined to take part.

Further confirmation…

https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/1737928349937238268?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


It appears that France is withdrawing from Op Prosperity Guardian and will be conducting their own escort operation.

They are making overtures to other European Union nations to escort EU-owned vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb against the Houthi.

The delays in the implementation of the operation seem to be the issue. With US-flagged vessels stuck in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, it does appear that there are issues in its implementation across department lines - Dept of Defense, State Dept, CENTCOM, US Navy and US 5th Fleet.

This does not bode well that the Houthi can disrupt 15% of the world's trade and there is no means to escort ships by the US Navy.

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC, there were two separate maritime Task Groups in the Adriatic back in the early 90's: a WEU one (Sharp Fence) and a NATO one (Maritime Guard) which eventually merged into Operation Sharp Guard. (A joint Op, as it were).
It is not a surprise to see the French and EU members have an op that is scoped to their needs only. In time they may choose to merge with the USN+Japan+et al operation, but politically there may be constraints or objectives that don't match at the moment.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Personally I think it is time for some tough love. The Houthi blockade is ruinous for all of the Gulf Countries economies. They want it both ways, The US keeps trade essential to their economies going while they denounce US actions over the Gaza war. The US should tell all shipping companies go around the Cape and all the Gulf states, this is your lake you can fix it. Yes there will be a short term hit to Western economies due to increased shipping costs but consumes will still get their toasters and running shoes, but the hit will be far more consequential and immediate to the Gulf Countries. Time they become part of the solution instead of part of the problem.

[Asturias56]

well yes - the problem is who can control/influence the Houthis? Remember the UAE and Saudi fought them for seven years and really didn't get anywhere. From a military point of view Yemen is very like Afghanistan - you can kill people but it doesn't stop them.

The only people with any influence (and it's a far way from control) is Iran - and that opens a much larger can of worms

[dead_pan]

Given the impact on its exports, i wonder if China will get involved with their brand new shiny navy...

[CISTRS]

Given the impact on its exports, i wonder if China will get involved with their brand new shiny navy...
I would think that ice rated cargo ships and the Arctic route to Europe is the way China would go, should this situation persist.

[jolihokistix]

China, like Iran and Russia are not seen as the enemy.

[dead_pan]

China, like Iran and Russia are not seen as the enemy.

But ships carrying Chinese cargo very much are

[jolihokistix]

But ships carrying Chinese cargo very much are
Hmmm.... yes, good point. A tricky one for Iran and the Houthis.

[Asturias56]

I would think that ice rated cargo ships and the Arctic route to Europe is the way China would go, should this situation persist.

its winter up there..................... :(

[Lyneham Lad]

On BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-67811929).

A cargo ship was struck by a drone off the coast of the western Indian state of Gujarat on Saturday.

The Liberia-flagged chemical products tanker was linked to Israel, according to maritime security firm Ambrey, and was heading from Saudi Arabia to India.

The attack sparked a fire onboard the ship which was put out, but none of the roughly 20 crew members were harmed.

It comes after a series of drone and rocket attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

The group, which controls much of Yemen, has carried out more than 100 drone and missile attacks on 10 vessels, according to US officials. It claims to be targeting Israel over the war in Gaza.

Many large global shipping groups have suspended operations in the Red Sea due to the increased risk of attacks.

But it is not yet clear who was behind the strike near India on Saturday.

The incident took place 200 nautical miles (370km) south-west of the city of Veraval, according the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1632/idt2/idt2/f629b267-4d8c-40f7-b756-ca3083c4da35/image/816It caused structural damage to the tanker - identified in Indian media as the crude oil-carrying MV Chem Pluto - and water was taken onboard.

Ambrey said the event, which is the first of its kind so far away from the Red Sea, fell within an area the firm considered a "heightened threat area" for Iranian drones.

The Indian navy sent an aircraft and warships to offer assistance.

Earlier on Saturday, the US accused Iran of being "deeply involved" in planning operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

National security spokesperson Adrienne Watson said it was "consistent with Iran's long-term material support and encouragement of the Houthis' destabilising actions in the region".

Who are the Houthi rebels attacking Red Sea ships? (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67614911)

Later, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander warned it would force the closure of waterways other than the Red Sea if "America and its allies continue committing crimes" in Gaza.

Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Naqdi said these could include the Mediterranean Sea and Strait of Gibraltar - but offered no details of how this would happen.

[Lookleft]

Ok then, call their bluff. Put the commercial shipping into a convoy and escort them through the blockade. I think the West needs to grow a pair and say enough is enough. That also goes for providing arms to Ukraine. Iran and Russia are not going to stop by the imposition of sanctions and diplomatic nicety.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Convoys are hugely asset intensive, especially given the amount of traffic that passes through the Red Sea. This is simply not doable with the current assets assigned to Op Prosperity Garden. The force would have to be 5 times bigger to escort every merchant ship in a convoy system. I still think that the Middle Eastern countries need to take ownership of this. Convoys just allow Iran and the Houthi’s to keep blaming the US.

I think it is time to pull back, recommend shipping companies avoid the area and let the locals sort this. Ironically the country hardest hit is Yemen as virtually all aid being shipped to the country has stopped.

[havoc]

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/12/23/Iran-Khamenei-calls-Muslim-nations-block-shipping-Israel/7781703344601/

[ORAC]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/23/malign-iran-threat-to-world-warns-david-cameron/

Malign Iran is threat to the world, warns Cameron

Foreign Secretary vows to take tough line on Tehran’s meddling in the Middle East

Britain will not tolerate the escalation of Iran (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F12%2F23%2Firan-gaza-red-sea-houthis-shipping-strait-of-gibraltar%2F)’s “malign” activities in the Middle East or on UK soil, Lord Cameron has warned.

In his first newspaper interview (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2023%2F12 %2F23%2Fcameron-foreign-secretary-hamas-sunak-gaza-egypt-iran%2F) since returning to government, the Foreign Secretary described Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah as “proxies” for Iran who were contributing to an “extremely high” level of “danger and insecurity” around the world.

In a significant toughening of the UK’s approach, the former prime minister told The Telegraph that Iran must be sent “an incredibly clear message that this escalation will not be tolerated”.

He pledged that Britain would work with allies to “develop a really strong set of deterrent measures” against Tehran.

On Friday night, the US pointed to intelligence showing that Iran was “deeply involved” in planning Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The attacks are already causing major disruption to supply chains (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2023% 2F12%2F21%2Fwest-sleepwalking-economic-catastrophe-red-sea-houthis%2F) across Europe.

Lord Cameron also cited “more evidence” of the “unacceptable threat the Iranian regime poses to the lives of UK-based journalists” after it emerged that Iranian spies had offered a people smuggler £150,000 to assassinate two news presenters at a London-based Persian language news channel (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2022%2F11 %2F07%2Firan-sends-hit-squad-murder-two-british-journalists%2F).

The Telegraph can reveal that the Foreign Secretary summoned Iran’s most senior diplomat in the UK to the Foreign Office on Friday over the revelation “to make clear that these threats will not be tolerated”.

Since the start of last year, there have been more than 15 credible threats or plots by the Iranian regime to kill British or UK-based individuals, according to government officials (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2022%2F11 %2F16%2Firan-tried-assassinate-british-residents-10-times-year-mi5-reveals%2F)…..

[Ninthace]

You have to admire their ambition. From the DT
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean Sea unless Israel stops bombing Gaza, as the US warned Tehran was “deeply involved” in attacks on shipping.

“They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, [the Strait of] Gibraltar and other waterways,” Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior member of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/21/us-rishi-sunak-ban-iran-islamic-revolutionary-guard-terror/)said today.

The general did not explain how Iran, which does not border the Mediterranean, intended to make good on its threat.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/tbrit90/status/1738708711546187923?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Pentagon says drone which attacked chemical tanker off India earlier today was launched from Iran — WSJ

Most likely source is Chabahar airbase which is 500nm from where the tanker MV Chem Pluto was attacked.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x943/image_171b2c310171a99b7fcf2dfe539172fce8ea66ae.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/1739010431463596312?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The latest @Maersk advisory announced the potential resumption of trade through the Red Sea now that @USNavy has escorted through 3 US-flagged @MaerskLineLtd ships

In the Med, several 8k+TEUs are heading for Suez:
Maersk Detroit 🇺🇸, Hidalgo, Stralsund, Londrina, Tukang, Genoa, Mary Maersk, Gjertrud Maersk, Maren Maersk & Ebba Maersk.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x682/image_7445a1882a1bed01d4ea6d16ab62c50ac1100b00.png
​​​​​​​

[fitliker]

DW is reporting Iran has 1000 km anti -ship missiles and is threatening to close the Gibraltar straights .
Anyone have closed Mediterranean Sea on their WW3 Bingo card ?

[ORAC]

First direct att k on US forces, which means the US is entitled to respond….

https://x.com/realcynicalfox/status/1738730680152985682?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Worth noting this is the first time the American DoD has admitted a US warship was the intended target of a Houthi drone/missile attack. They have studiously avoided doing so in previous attacks.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x270/image_8c30d05408b2ae196a0f81e4fefbac85a5842674.png
​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

Merry Christmas from the :mad: Houti.
I think they need some airborne delivery of iron presents.

[havoc]

Merry Christmas from the :mad: Houti.
I think they need some airborne delivery of iron presents.


by pass the Houti and get done with the source Iran.

[Ninthace]

Then watch the Straits of Hormuz close tight shut to shipping.

[Lyneham Lad]

This afternoon in The Guardian.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say Israel (https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) “will pay” for killing one of its commanders, Iranian state TV reports

Reuters and Tasnim news agency said earlier that an airstrike killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi outside Syria’s capital, Damascus.

“Undoubtedly, the usurper and savage Zionist regime will pay for this crime,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said in a statement read on Iranian state TV.

Mousavi was an IRGC member responsible for coordinating the military alliance between Syria and Iran.

The IRGC described him as one of their oldest advisers in Syria, holding the rank of brigadier-general.

Iran’s state television reported that Mousavi had been “among those accompanying Qassem Soleimani”, the head of the Guards’ elite Quds Force, who had been killed in 2020 in a US drone attack in Iraq.

[Jobza Guddun]

Then watch the Straits of Hormuz close tight shut to shipping.

Maybe it's long overdue the Emiratis dug a ship canal from Dubai to Fujairah to negate the requirement to transit the Straits of Hormuz! Not the complete solution but at least it'd undermine the Iranian grip in that area.

[Asturias56]

Maybe it's long overdue the Emiratis dug a ship canal from Dubai to Fujairah to negate the requirement to transit the Straits of Hormuz! Not the complete solution but at least it'd undermine the Iranian grip in that area.

There are dangers in posting ideas without looking at a topo. map............... :p
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/483x296/2023_12_26_090905_f5b1d4813be2d7384cd8b499ecc2fb9140f0f458.j pg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/531x273/2023_12_26_090838_d64feb65eba1452c276c5767cf2ddd83defa5b60.j pg

[Asturias56]

by pass the Houti and get done with the source Iran.

ever noticed how the calls for ACTION on here are inversely related to the distance from the region?

[jolihokistix]

Iran must be jealous of Egypt's Suez income.

Perhaps she sees the western Indian Ocean as hers, free to lob kamikaze drones on unsuspecting shipping, and hoping to collect tolls somehow, by piracy boarding and detention if no other way.

[Jobza Guddun]

There are dangers in posting ideas without looking at a topo.map............... :p


Very happy with the topo thanks...how's your CE? :p.

[Asturias56]

That's a lot of mountains to move for a canal - and then you have to fill it with water - unless you put it through at Sea Level

And , of course, either end is easily attacked/disrupted................................................... ..

[Jobza Guddun]

It certainly is, and there's enough wealth in those western Gulf nations to fund the solutions. There needs to be a long-term alternative as Iran will only get stronger and more aggressive.

Attacks/disruption - so are the Straits, but at least you move the playground 70-80 miles further away.

[DogTailRed2]

ever noticed how the calls for ACTION on here are inversely related to the distance from the region?
Considering Iran is arming Russia. Russia is attacking Ukraine and Ukraine borders Europe I would say that's close enough.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Iran is playing a dangerous game. Sooner or later one of its proxies are going to do something that can't be ignored and Iran is going to be in a position of guilt by association. It almost looks like the internal disfunction at the senior levels of the Iranian government has them sleep walking into catastrophe. Like the old saying goes, never ascribe malice to actions that can adequately be explained by mere incompetency....

[tdracer]

It almost looks like the internal disfunction at the senior levels of the Iranian government has them sleep walking into catastrophe. Like the old saying goes, never ascribe malice to actions that can adequately be explained by mere incompetency....

Incompetency and malice are not mutually exclusive explanations.
But fully agree - eventually something is going to go pear shaped in a big way, and the consequences will be dire.

[Asturias56]

Incompetency and malice are not mutually exclusive explanations.
But fully agree - eventually something is going to go pear shaped in a big way, and the consequences will be dire.

there was a long article in the Economist before Christmas saying the Mad Mullahs are talking big but are seriously worried. The Grand Ayatollah is old and unsteady and there's a lot of jostling as to who will replace him. Meanwhile their proxies are stirring up trouble left right and centre. interestingly a couple Iranian pronouncements on Israel/Gaza have been somewhat less incendiary than usual. They even seem to have been close to mentioning a 2 state solution. They've had some success in getting some of their oil cash paid and are in no mood to start a full on war with the USA.

Interesting times.................

[Big Pistons Forever]

there was a long article in the Economist before Christmas saying the Mad Mullahs are talking big but are seriously worried. The Grand Ayatollah is old and unsteady and there's a lot of jostling as to who will replace him. Meanwhile their proxies are stirring up trouble left right and centre. interestingly a couple Iranian pronouncements on Israel/Gaza have been somewhat less incendiary than usual. They even seem to have been close to mentioning a 2 state solution. They've had some success in getting some of their oil cash paid and are in no mood to start a full on war with the USA.

Interesting times.................
Interesting times indeed. The 64 billion dollar question is just how much control does Iran actually have over the Houthi's ? The Houthi leadership certainly seem to be actively looking for trouble.....

[Asturias56]

Well I've always said that Yemen is like Afghanistan - it's not a place were the normal rules have ever run - I think Iran has "influence" but no control - bit like China & NOK

[chopper2004]

Still going strong their SK fleet..

https://x.com/HelisDatabase/status/1739263469889749308?s=20

cheers

[ORAC]

https://news.usni.org/2023/12/26/india-vows-vengeance-after-merchant-vessel-attacks

India Vows Vengeance After Merchant Vessel Attacks

New Delhi’s defense officials vowed to bring those responsible for the recent attacks on two predominantly Indian-crewed merchant vessels to justice amid the ongoing Houthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea and beyond.

India’s assertive tone on the Red and Arabian Sea attacks comes after the attacks on MV Sai Babaand MV Chem Pluto, the latter of which was struck by a one-way attack drone only 200 nautical miles off the Indian coast.

According to the Pentagon, this attack was launched from Iran instead of Yemen where the majority of ballistic missile and drone strikes have been conducted into the Red Sea since the start of the crisis that has strangled the strategic global shipping lane.

However, India has yet to claim a perpetrator as it continues its investigation on the stricken Chem Pluto in Mumbai.

Nonetheless, India’s Defense Minister Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh promised retribution for these attacks during the commissioning ceremony of INS Imphal (D68), the Indian Navy’s third Visakhapatnam-class destroyer.

“Those who have carried out these attacks, we will find them from the bottom of the sea, and strict action will be taken against them,” said Shri Rajnath Singh.

The defense minister emphasized India’s role as the “Net Security Provider in the entire Indian Ocean Region” and commitment to keeping the sea lanes open for greater regional trade in collaboration with international partners.

Shri Rajnath Singh also attributed these attacks to India’s “growing economic and strategic power,” which has “filled some forces with jealousy and hatred.”

Chief of the Naval Staff Adm. R Hari Kumar highlighted India’s commitment to keeping the sea lanes open. While it is not known if India is participating in U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian, New Delhi has deployed a number of its assets in the Red and Arabian Seas.

Kumar said since the crisis began the Indian Navy has deployed four Kolkata and Visakhapatnam destroyers to the area to counter further attacks on merchant vessels.

Adm. Kumar also revealed that the Indian Navy’s American-built P-8I Poseiden and MQ-9B SeaGuardian aircraft have been deployed as well under efforts to boost surveillance.

Indian Coast Guard ships and aircraft are also contributing to the efforts.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1740388043620847962?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


India increasing its presence in Arabian Sea: Coast guard deploys four patrol vessels after merchant attack

The Indian Coast Guard has deployed four offshore patrol vessels equipped with advanced helicopters in the Arabian Sea following an attack on the merchant vessel MV Chem Pluto.

Coast Guard patrol boats are monitoring any suspicious behaviour in the Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh vowed on Tuesday to track down the perpetrators, even if they are hiding in the 'depths of the sea'.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x682/image_e77444b2552fbce54ca5c97fc08ce0d00691fc34.png
​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

now this IS very interesting.......................

[ORAC]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x659/image_ec888b160b7a862d051a17db61a0a24c94bea8d8.png

The USS MASON (DDG 87) shot down one drone and one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis between 5:45 - 6: 10 p.m. (Sanaa time) on Dec. 28.

There was no damage to any of the 18 ships in the area or reported injuries.

This is the 22nd attempted attack by Houthis on international shipping since Oct. 19.

[SASless]

Reports of the killing of Eleven high ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guards Leaders by the IDF in an Air Strike at the Damascus, Syria International Airport.

Seems that is a rather dangerous place for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Leaders of late.

[Big Pistons Forever]

now this IS very interesting.......................

More unintended consequences for Iran as things start to spiral out of their control.

[DogTailRed2]

Listened to a news article that stated that Arab countries are fed up with Iran's attitude to the West. To progress Iran needs to grow up and move forward into the 21st century and stop living in the past. To be prosperous is to be friends with the West, not foe. I'm sure Iranian people would prefer prosperity to war as indeed all countries do, well sound minded ones.

[Lonewolf_50]

Listened to a news article that stated that Arab countries are fed up with Iran's attitude to the West. To progress Iran needs to grow up and move forward into the 21st century and stop living in the past. To be prosperous is to be friends with the West, not foe. I'm sure Iranian people would prefer prosperity to war as indeed all countries do, well sound minded ones. Was this on a radio show or on a podcast? I'd like to assess the source on that. I expect that the Saudis in particular are frustrated...

[dead_pan]

Listened to a news article that stated that Arab countries are fed up with Iran's attitude to the West. To progress Iran needs to grow up and move forward into the 21st century and stop living in the past. To be prosperous is to be friends with the West, not foe. I'm sure Iranian people would prefer prosperity to war as indeed all countries do, well sound minded ones.

Well maybe these countries' respective leaderships are, but I'll wager the average person in their street is quietly pleased about Iran's stance & actions through its proxies. I reckon even your average Iranian may feel strong sympathies with the Palestinians.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/centcom/status/1741259817602429357?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


CENTCOM:

USS GRAVELY shoots down two anti-ship ballistic missiles while responding to Houthi attack on merchant vessel.

Today at approximately 8:30 p.m. (Sanaa time), the container ship MAERSK HANGZHOU reported that they were struck by a missile while transiting the Southern Red Sea.

The Singapore-flagged, Denmark-owned/operated container ship requested assistance, and the USS GRAVELY (DDG 107) and USS LABOON (DDG 58) have responded to the ship.

The vessel is reportedly seaworthy and there are no reported injuries.

While responding, the USS GRAVELY shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen toward the ships.

This is the 23rd illegal attack by the Houthis on international shipping since Nov. 19.

https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/1741295848435106174?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


It was a gamble by Maersk to run their ships through the Red Sea and the Babel Mandeb, and now the Houthi have been able to strike one of their ships - 15,226 TEU Singapore-flagged Maersk Hangzhou heading toward the Suez.

It does not sound like the ship was being escorted by CMF_Bahrain & US 5th Fleet if USS Gravely and Laboon had to respond to the ship.

There are about a dozen other large container ships in the area including ten Maersk and one from cmacgm and COSCOSHIPPING.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x448/image_abb76de66e1d18961558160d9ef4eea2e74bb130.png

[jolihokistix]

Advisers from Iran testing US response systems?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/centcom/status/1741381969936834951?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Iranian-backed Houthi small boats attack merchant vessel and U.S. Navy helicopters in Southern Red Sea

On Dec. 31 at 6:30am (Sanaa time) the container ship MAERSK HANGZHOU issued a second distress call in less than 24 hours reporting being under attack by four Iranian-backed Houthi small boats.

The small boats, originating from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, fired crew served and small arms weapons at the MAERSK HANGZHOU, getting to within 20 meters of the vessel, and attempted to board the vessel.

A contract embarked security team on the MAERSK HANZGHOU returned fire.

U.S. helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress call and in the process of issuing verbal calls to the small boats, the small boats fired upon the U.S. helicopters with crew served weapons and small arms.

The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense, sinking three of the four small boats, and killing the crews. The fourth boat fled the area.

There was no damage to U.S. personnel or equipment.https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x659/image_8f44f9c71b1489d8cd255d3de4168e9d2d4553e1.png

[SWBKCB]

Well maybe these countries' respective leaderships are, but I'll wager the average person in their street is quietly pleased about Iran's stance & actions through its proxies. I reckon even your average Iranian may feel strong sympathies with the Palestinians.

They may well have strong sympathies with the Palestinians, but doubt they want war.

[tdracer]

Iranian-backed Houthi small boats attack merchant vessel and U.S. Navy helicopters in Southern Red Sea

U.S. helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress call and in the process of issuing verbal calls to the small boats, the small boats fired upon the U.S. helicopters with crew served weapons and small arms.

The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense, sinking three of the four small boats, and killing the crews. The fourth boat fled the area.

There was no damage to U.S. personnel or equipment.

The Houthi are moving into Darwin award territory when they started firing on USN craft...

[DogTailRed2]

Are USN Helicopters the typical door gunner configuration or do they have forward firing guns?

[ORAC]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1429/image_da99cd8706aa78abf7c65cc4ecc4f62fc5db6cd1.jpeg

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1333/image_e2f47d3582bf7c4e57afa42bc5ed7eb54ac1e5fa.jpeg

[TURIN]

Could someone here explain what is gained by these attacks?

[ORAC]

https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/1741223795526869009?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


We saw India deploy warships to meet the #Houthi threat now there is an Indonesian naval ship entering the area - the corvette Diponegoro.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x682/image_f27d9569aa1117cd6720bdafa2f17df384284917.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/houthi-rebels-boats-yemen-red-sea-attacks-85mxc6gzt

UK preparing for attacks on Houthi rebels with US

Britain’s military is preparing to launch a wave of air strikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis creating chaos in the Red Sea, raising the prospect of a significant spiralling of tensions in the region.

Under the plans the UK would join with the US and possibly another European country to unleash a salvo of missiles against pre-planned targets, either in the sea or in Yemen itself, where the militants are based.

A Whitehall source said the co-ordinated strikes could involve RAF warplanes for the first time or HMS Diamond, a Type 45 destroyer which successfully destroyed an attack drone with a Sea Viper missile in the Red Sea earlier this month.

It is understood an unprecedented statement is expected to be released by the UK and the US in the coming hours which will warn the Houthis to stop attacking commercial vessels or face the military might of the West.

Ahead of the statement, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, said: “If the Houthis continue to threaten lives and trade, we will be forced to take the necessary and appropriate action.”

The Whitehall source said the statement was a “last warning” and if the Houthis failed to stop the attacks (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-will-the-houthi-attacks-in-the-red-sea-affect-the-uk-economy-dmvvp5rfq), the response would likely be “limited” but “significant”.

It is believed allies are currently trying to persuade other European countries to work with the US and the UK to stop the attacks amid fears there could be disastrous economic implications if shipping transiting through one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes continues to be disrupted.

The source was unable to confirm which aircraft could be used in the retaliatory action under the plans, although the UK has Typhoons stationed at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, currently carrying out missions over Iraq and Syria…..

[Asturias56]

"We saw India deploy warships to meet the #Houthi threat now there is an Indonesian naval ship entering the area - the corvette Diponegoro."

it getting really interesting - the TNI-AL haven't been seen much outside home waters - and now they're making a point - same as the Indian Navy. Presumably also gaining useful experience of a warm-ish war

[SASless]

All is not smooth sailing.....as some NATO Nations are refusing to allow their Navy to participate unless their Ships are under NATO Control and not the US led Coalition.

How will that turn out should this become a genuine international commerce crisis where shipping can no longer utilize the Red Sea or Suez Canal route and have to go the long way around to get to Europe?

If Insurance Carriers terminate coverage and Shipping Companies have to avoid the area it could become a real economic cost to national economies that are already fragile.

[ORAC]

FAFO…

https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1741565202204655731?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/theinformantofc/status/1741567023992180840?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The frigate IRIS Alborz of the Iranian Navy has entered the Red Sea as part of a flotilla of ships. The Iranian ships are deploying off the coast of Yemen.

Amid reports of the US and UK's readiness to begin military operations against the Houthis, the appearance of Iranian ships could be a harbinger of a serious escalation in the region.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x808/image_2a47d0bac3bb71f6f2d93ff57c5bbff1a96765de.png
​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

Looks like a lovely New Year's decoration for the bottom of the Red Sea. :p

[Ninthace]

Looks like a lovely New Year's decoration for the bottom of the Red Sea. :p
Not if you consider the implications. Best left floating and watched unless it fires first.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I find the Frigate deployment surprising. Iran has made a point of trying to have plausible deniability for the actions of the Houthi. They now have skin in the game in a way that is pretty unambiguous.

Dangerous times indeed…

[jolihokistix]

Maybe the Houthis are getting uppity and giving Iran a bad name...(?)

[Coochycool]

Anyone got any updates on the situation with the Iranian nuke programme? Not expecting a detailed reply, you understand. I haven't read all the thread.

I always trusted that the Israeis would have the ways and means to babysit it. But they may be a tad distracted right now....

Cooch

[keith williams]

Hopefully a Houthi missile will put a hole in the Iranian frigate.

[Asturias56]

Anyone got any updates on the situation with the Iranian nuke programme? Not expecting a detailed reply, you understand. I haven't read all the thread.

I always trusted that the Israeis would have the ways and means to babysit it. But they may be a tad distracted right now....

Cooch

Last I saw the Iranians were in a position were they could go nuclear in a couple of months if they want to . They seem to reckon they'll get more (such as the frozen oil cash) if they hold their hand and and DON'T proceed - for now anyway

[Ninthace]

Perhaps the Iranian frigate is there to observe and report - what and to whom would be the question. While it is international waters however, not a lot that can be done about it.

[JohnDixson]

SAS and Lonewolf: With indecisive national leadership, the rules of engagement imposed on local commanders can easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Had some experience with that some decades ago.

[SASless]

An interesting question would not be "Where are the Carriers?" but rather "Where are the Attack Submarines?.

Then one might consider where are some B-52's and B-1's......or even some B-2's.

Iranian Frigates have done better as artificial reefs than as combatants as I recall.

They certainly are not going to carry the day should they decide to start the game with a kick off.....that shall not end well for them militarily.

Presence alone is sufficient to allow them to project some limited power.....actual hostilities shall only cause them to. lose the game and project no power at all.

[Asturias56]

I 'm with Ninthace - they're there to observe, check on tactics etc and the guys in Tehran can tell the Yemenis "look! we've sent a frigate!" but it won't do anything

[Big Pistons Forever]

I 'm with Ninthace - they're there to observe, check on tactics etc and the guys in Tehran can tell the Yemenis "look! we've sent a frigate!" but it won't do anything

Yes but the coalition will have to honour the threat, and it would only take one mistake on either side to start a shooting war. I don't see any way this can't be considered escalatory on Iran's part.

[fitliker]

There are only two types of vessels at Sea . Submarines and Targets .

[Mr Mac]

I have heard that from a friends son who is on Hunter Killers in UK Navy, however not sure the Red Sea is a great submarine attack area due to depth and manoeuvring space but that is just a bystander’s theoretical observation. I did know a US Navy Boomer officer who operated in the Mediterranean, and said they were always in Western Mediterranean due to depth.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[DogTailRed2]

Does Iran have any submarines? There is also the threat of mines should anyone be daft enough to lay some.

[Ninthace]

Yes but the coalition will have to honour the threat, and it would only take one mistake on either side to start a shooting war. I don't see any way this can't be considered escalatory on Iran's part.

If it is in international waters, minding its own business, all the coalition can do is keep an eye on it. For all we know it may just be on passage from A to B. Perhaps a port visit somewhere?

[havoc]

https://apnews.com/article/uss-gerald-r-ford-aircraft-carrier-israel-20fb033f78bfd37fb4b0cf1df468a731

[jolihokistix]

Is the frigate carrying more of those Iranian fast boats, I wonder?

[Asturias56]

"I did know a US Navy Boomer officer who operated in the Mediterranean, and said they were always in Western Mediterranean due to depth."

Thats odd - the eastern med is at least as deep as the western med - and back in November an Ohio went through the Suez Canal

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/712x401/2024_01_med_depth_073234182dba7c38c07d61111fe103ebda0c97c1.j pg

[Lonewolf_50]

SAS and Lonewolf: With indecisive national leadership, the rules of engagement imposed on local commanders can easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Had some experience with that some decades ago. Yeah, that's certainly going to constrain the art of the possible. And on a practical side, any engagements in the Red Sea will probably get things stirred up in the Persian Gulf.
I 'm with Ninthace - they're there to observe, check on tactics etc and the guys in Tehran can tell the Yemenis "look! we've sent a frigate!" but it won't do anything Well, they'll do something (hopefully sink) but I'd not put it past them to launch some spec ops/fast boats for certain tasks.
Does Iran have any submarines? Yes. Three Kilo class diesel boats (Russian origin) and a few smaller ones of local manufacture.
There is also the threat of mines should anyone be daft enough to lay some. Yes, that's a risk, particularly as the Houthi's are raising the stakes.

[Asturias56]

"Yes. Three Kilo class diesel boats (Russian origin) and a few smaller ones of local manufacture."

IIRC the Kilos weren't thought to be active a while back

[Lonewolf_50]

"Yes. Three Kilo class diesel boats (Russian origin) and a few smaller ones of local manufacture."

IIRC the Kilos weren't thought to be active a while back The page I looked at listed two of them as "being in refit through 2023" but I am not sure how solid that information is.

[Asturias56]

the latest Seaforth World Navies only has "the navy continues its campaign of low -level harassment"

[ORAC]

Someone is taking the piss….

Get SF to place themselves in a position where they risk death, or worse capture, in order to disable engines which can be rapidly replaced?

An AC-130 would do the same job much more effectively, or if you didn’t want to risk that, PGMs…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/news/uk/us-uk-destroy-houthi-boats-red-sea-attack-l9psltb5w

UK special forces could destroy Houthi boats in Red Sea

Britain and America are weighing up military options in response to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the *Yemen-based Houthi militia, sources have told The Times.

General David Petraeus, a former CIA director, said he had spoken to UK officials and others in Washington and that although airstrikes were possible, the West could also use more covert means to destroy the fast boats used by the Iran-backed militia.

A UK government source confirmed that there were several options, including airstrikes on targets in Yemen. *Special forces could be *deployed to disable the engines of the Houthi fast boats, or explosives used to sink them while they were in harbour.

[DogTailRed2]

Blasts kill 73
Twin bomb blasts near Iran general Qasem Soleimani's tomb kill 73 - state TV - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67872281)

[Not_a_boffin]

Blasts kill 73<br /><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67872281">Twin bomb blasts near Iran general Qasem Soleimani's tomb kill 73 - state TV - BBC News</a><br /><br />False flag to justify something? Or the Red Sea Pedestrians deciding they'll sort all their problems at once?

Struggling to see the logic of the latter.....