Ukraine Crisis 2014

[Igloowhite]

Just been looking on Google Earth. Very impressed by the beautiful harbour at Sevastopol. It’s a jewel. A pearl. Now there’s a thought..........................

Given the number of Russians in London these days, one cannot help but wonder whether Valerie “Gayboy” Putin will send his “you only get one guess to know who we are” goons to Knightsbridge next on the pretext of protecting them from dangerous right wing elements.

http://http://www.google.fr/url?source=imglanding&ct=img&q=http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01820/NIGEL620_1820144a.jpg&sa=X&ei=pTYTU8SpBMi00QXu4oGgBA&ved=0CAkQ8wc&usg=AFQjCNGYUKJV0yrusYjMUBlRy06pup6WEA

[West Coast]

WARNING....improper use of the word literally....back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[t43562]

One thing I think tough guys use is the fact that their house isn't divided and yours (meaning democracies in general) is. They've knocked their opposition on the head and they know that almost half of you dislike your own leadership to the extent of being glad to see them fall on their faces overseas. Hence it's a lot easier for them to win public-relations victories.

[Easy Street]

One thing I think tough guys use is the fact that their house isn't divided

Well, there have been some brave souls posting comments on BBC News claiming to be Russians, living in Russia, and disapproving of what Putin's up to. They'd better stand by for a 'visit' from some chaps in black Ladas....

Assuming, of course, the comments aren't actually posted by Ukrainian or western cyber-warriors. One thing for sure is that you can't trust much in the media these days.... and that's where the tough guys really win, because they just don't care what the media says.

[melmothtw]

West coast, the Oxford English Dictionary gives a meaning of 'damned' as 'to criticise strongly.' Use of word 'literally' is quite correct.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

While there's a lull in the Limey/Septic slanging match, it might be useful to consider what Ivan's done in the recent past and how he's done it. http://www.conflictstudies.org.uk/files/rp_74.pdf "Who Gives The Orders in The New Russian Military?" makes interesting reading. I can't copy and paste as the PDF is "protected". Also, if we assume that the Russians methods are still tic toc by nature, http://www.conflictstudies.org.uk/files/04.pdf "Provocation, Deception, Entrapment: the Russo-Georgian Five Day War" is informative. Regrettably, the ARAG doesn't do executive summaries.

[racedo]

Everybody here is assumming Ukranian armed forces are loyal..............they probably are of course, question is to whom.

My guess is that it isn't to the latest Billionaires in office claiming they interested in democracy.

[Lima Juliet]

I'm surprise that March 1854 hasn't beem memtioned...

The Russians wanted the Crimea for themsleves so that they had a port that could stay open all year around. This was both for their military and their merchant trade fleet. The UK and France declared war on the Russians and the rest is history. This is where the metal for our. Victoria Crosses come from and also the infamous 'Charge of the Light Brigade'.

Let's hope we don't make the same mistake again 160 years later...

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Flew the six squadrons.
"Forward, the RAF!
"Charge for the SAMs!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six squadrons.

"Forward, the RAF!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the airman knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six squadrons.

SAMs to right of them,
SAMs to left of them,
AAA in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six squadrons.

Flash'd all their AMRAAMs bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Wraking the gunners there,
Charging a country, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the Brimstone's stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they flew back, but not
Not the six squadrons.

SAMs to right of them,
SAMs to left of them,
AAA behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While jet and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six squadrons.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the RAF,
Noble six squadrons.

With apologies to Lord Tennyson and some very brave horsemen, but you get the picture. Short of MAD* there would be little that we could do militarily thanks to successive governments taking a 'peace dividend' and buying uber expensive hardware from a UK Defense Company at well above the market rate in exchange for votes.

We are where we are!

LJ

*Multually Assured Destruction

[racedo]

Hell previous post been proved so accurate so soon..................

BBC News - New Ukraine navy chief 'defects' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26410431)

[Easy Street]

If Ukrainian forces continue to restrain themselves and deny Russia a pretext for the kind of military action it undoubtedly wants to undertake, then what happens in the long term? If it is robbed of its "protecting ethnic Russians" justification by the absence of any action against them, does the international community simply let Russia continue to occupy part of a sovereign state?

[racedo]

does the international community simply let Russia continue to occupy part of a sovereign state?

Never seemed to be bothered when it was US and anybody else doing it or countries openly supplying weapons to overthrow others like Saudi / Qatar etc are doing.

OR

Are you suggesting its different because its the Russians doing it ?

[SASless]

Here's the Welfare Man telling Romney that Russia is not a threat.

Spot on wasn't WM?

Remember Obama Mocking Romney With This Comment About Russia During A 2012 Debate? | Independent Journal Review (http://www.ijreview.com/2014/03/118668-remember-obama-mocking-romney-foreign-policy-question-2012-campaign/)


Then of course there is the fact Sarah Palin correctly warned of the dangers of Welfare Man and his Foreign Policy decisions!

Did Sarah Palin Predict Russia Invading Ukraine If Obama Got Elected? | TheBlaze.com (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/02/28/did-sarah-palin-predict-russia-invading-ukraine-if-obama-got-elected/)

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Leon Jabachjabicz; not wishing to p**s on anyone's fireworks, the Crimean War kicked off with the French and then the Ottomans' reaction to Russian expansion. I know it's nice to think that we lit every fuse in the 19th C but in this case we had treaty/agreement arrangements with the French and the Ottomans. Anyway, re acquiring Tread centreline.

[500N]

SaS

That was the time Obama thought everything in the world was rosy and everyone would bow at his feet, hang up arms and hold hands in a circle while they sung Kumbuya !

Then reality hit :O

[Lyneham Lad]

From Saturday's 'The Times':-

http://www.kmercerphotography.co.uk/PutinCartoon.JPG

[Colonal Mustard]

Guys, your all worrying over nothing........

if those ruskies cause any problems after they get kicked out of the G8 they`ll have to get past the British Army Overseas Rhine (BAOR) first.....:=

If that fails we can put our naval fleet between them and good old blighty in the channel, specifically using our aircraft carriers and Harriers to give them a bloody nose...:=

finally finishing the stragglers off with our volunteer reserves on home defence......:=

we might even be able to send our nimrods north from one of our scottish airbases to scout out the fleet as they head round the coast to give us as much notice as they can....:=

It`ll be sorted then:ok:

[racedo]

You just don't in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext."

This statement was from US Secretary of State John Kerry on 2nd March 2014.

Kerry?s claim that he opposed Bush?s invasion of Iraq (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2013/09/10/kerrys-claim-that-he-opposed-bushs-invasion-of-iraq/)

Sometimes you wonder how many faces someone can have.

[melmothtw]

So what are you saying racedo? It is ok to invade another country on a jumped-up pretext?

[racedo]

So what are you saying racedo? It is ok to invade another country on a jumped-up pretext?

Seems to be ok for everybody else to do it so why not
or is it in John Kerrys case that he was opposed to it before he was in favour of it.

[melmothtw]

It's all right for everybody else to do it, so why not? That's your argument??!

If it's hypocrisy you're looking to expose racedo, how about you comment on the Putin cartoon strip above?

[racedo]

For a Russian invasion it seems to be a very tame one where the population of the area concerned are welcoming them with open arms......

Ukraine as a country came into existence 25 years ago remember.

[melmothtw]

It last threw off its Soviet (Russian) shackles 23 years ago. Not quite the same thing racedo.

[Lima Juliet]

GBZ

What part of "The UK and France declared war on the Russians and the rest is history" did you not understand? It was in March 1854 and we most definately declared war.

The French sent ~400,000 personnel and the Brits ~250,000. We lost about 20,000 personnel - only about 2,000 in action and the restto disease. The Ottomans had about 300,000.

Back on glidepath, back on centreline! :ok:

LJ

[StopStart]

USA in Grenada/Panama. Discuss.

[racedo]

It last threw off its Soviet (Russian) shackles 23 years ago. Not quite the same thing racedo.

It elected its last President in 2010 who were overthrown by a mob.

Ukraine as a country has only existed since breakup of USSR, not before.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

What part of "The UK and France declared war on the Russians and the rest is history" did you not understand?

The part where you missed out the Ottomans who were salient to the entire campaign.

http://i111.photobucket.com/albums/n131/Golf_Bravo_Zulu/crimea_zps7ac79ddb.jpg

Anyway, good suck back. :ok:

[rh200]

For a Russian invasion it seems to be a very tame one where the population of the area concerned are welcoming them with open arms

Thats a point thats in contention, what isn't there's the usual misinformation campaign going on by all sides at the moment.

Whilst I personally believe from the simple demographics it is likely the majority welcomes Russia it is by no means a slam dunk. There are plenty of reasonable sources saying that it isn't and its a lot more complicated than that.

In these things in the face of an overwhelming force of arms supporting one side you usually get the other keep a low profile for a while.

What is telling though is most not all of the violence has been commited by the pro Russians.

Ukraine as a country came into existence 25 years ago remember.

Your point is? The fact is its a soveriegn country now and as such it still means its an invasion of a country that even though there has been some serious political upheavel, the so called western side has gone out of its way to try and make sure there where going to be no anti-russian consequences.

It elected its last President in 2010 who were overthrown by a mob.


Hardley, his own Forces refused to take drastic action against the protestors, he ran. His own parlament elected by the people voted him out as they are entitled to.

[racedo]

Hardley, his own Forces refused to take drastic action against the protestors, he ran. His own parlament elected by the people voted him out as they are entitled to.

Are they ?

Can you show the Ukranian laws which allows for that ?

Seems everybody is stating that because they did it then its allowed by law but is it ?

Ukraine is as much a Sovreign state as Serbia was when West decided to dismember it.

Problem West has is that because of its interference and dismemberment of many different states then it pretty much has Zero credibility and most of the world will not listen.

UK/US/France complaining to UNSC is laughable because they are only complaining because they are not doing it.

[rh200]

Can you show the Ukranian laws which allows for that ?

Nope, not with out having to get into legalise, but it does appear to be the case stated by some reasonable commentators and pollies. That of course doesn't make it true, but frankly most countries that at least are trying to emulate a democratic system usually has a method of removing them if needed.

Any experts on the Ukrainian political legal system out their?

[SASless]

The Fat is in the Fire now.....

Obama Authorizes Drone Strike On Putin (http://www.duffelblog.com/2014/03/putin-drone-strike/#!x4ei8)

[MarkD]

Lesson to all the conflict spots of the world:

Whatever you might have previously thought about settling your differences in exchange for guarantees of international protection, just look at how Ukraine has been rewarded for turning nuclear swords into ploughshares.

As an Irishman, I'm just glad we got our treaty ports back in 1938... :ok:

As for sending the air armadas to the Crimea, at least start by blockading their access to Instagram, denying the aggressors their selfies.

[rh200]

just look at how Ukraine has been rewarded for turning nuclear swords into ploughshares.

Yea sort of thinking the Aussie American alliance is not worth a toilet role. We should probally look at developing nukes ourselves:(.

Which is bad, as I have always been a significant supporter of the alliance and reasonably understanding of all the issues they have to deal with.

[500N]

RH

I think we are a bit further up the scale than the Ukraine.

Apart from having one hell of a lot of US Military technology,
we have Pine Gap and a couple of others that the US needs.

Plus we are a safe port with lots of harbours that will take US warships.

And in the not to distant future we'll have more US troops and more US aircraft than ever.

[melmothtw]

Racedo, you're confusing 'state' and 'country'. Ukraine was not a state before the break-up of the Soviet Union (neither was Russia), but it definitely was a country (ask yourself, is England a country?).

As for the West carving up Serbia, utter tosh. It was Tito who made Kosovo and Vojvodina into autonomous republics within Yugoslavia, and that's how they would have remained had not Milosovic embarked on his nationalist (actually neo-colonial is probably a better term) land grab of Serbia's neighbours. The loss of Kosovo was on his head, not the West's.

[Trim Stab]

Whatever you might have previously thought about settling your differences in exchange for guarantees of international protection, just look at how Ukraine has been rewarded for turning nuclear swords into ploughshares.

You seem to imply that we (the west) have abandoned Ukraine and allowed Russia to "invade".

Look at it another way - we stood by while the democratically elected President of Ukraine was overthrown by minority mob power. Russia have now justifiably intervened to shore up the democratically elected President...

[melmothtw]

TrimStab, no doubt you feel that the protesters who overthrew Caeusescu (the internationally recognised government of Romania) were just a mob, and the students in Tianammen Square were a mob who had what was coming to them.

[ORAC]

Look at it another way - we stood by while the democratically elected President of Ukraine was overthrown by minority mob power. Russia have now justifiably intervened to shore up the democratically elected President... And yet Russia is one the most vehement proclaimers of the principle that what goes on inside a state is a their own affair and not subject to outside interference....


http://po4ep.s3.amazonaws.com/1241/l/27079449.jpg

[rh200]

I think we are a bit further up the scale than the Ukraine.

I've no doubt, but at the end of the day, still comes down to risk versus reward. Several years ago I remember walking past some of the usual lefty socialists at uni, "The fall of the American empire" etc etc. I just laughed. Not so sure any more.

They could easily stop this if they showed some back bone and was prepared to put it all on the line. But no, huff puff and on it goes.

I guess its easy utilising all that hardware against country's who have no hope of winning.

[ORAC]

Mikheil Saakashvili: Lessons From the Putin Wars (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304026804579411362742506066?mod=WSJ_Opinion_ LEADTop&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304026804579411362742506066.html%3Fmod%3DWSJ_Opinion_LEADTop )

Georgia's former president, who has seen first-hand the sort of trouble the Kremlin is causing in Ukraine, on what to do about Moscow's threat.

....."Nobody knows quite what to do here, and it's really messy," Mr. Saakashvili says, "and Putin knows exactly what to do." The Georgian has never hidden his contempt for the Russian leader, but his reading of Mr. Putin has been validated daily as the drama has played out. "What does he want here? Chaos," Mr. Saakashvili says. "He has good chances here this time to really chop up Ukraine. It's going toward big-scale conflict. Big, big internal conflict. He'll stir up trouble in some of the Ukrainian regions. It's a very crucial moment. Russia will try to Balkanize Ukraine."........

In a 2005 speech, Mr. Putin said "the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century" and "a genuine tragedy" that "tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory." With its 46 million people and the seat of ancient Kiev Rus, Ukraine was the most painful loss for the Russian imperium. In a private conversation with George W. Bush in 2008, Mr. Putin averred that Ukraine wasn't a real state. "Putin never just says things," says Mr. Saakashvili, who met with him often before the 2008 war. "Ukraine is a 'territory' to him and a territory needs to be divided. The problem with Putin is not just that he's a revisionist. He's revanchist. That's why it's a clash of interests. He wants it back."...........

Based on Georgia's experience, Mr. Saakashvili believes that Russia will try to incite a clash in Crimea and then offer its services to restore order. He doesn't believe Russia will provoke a direct military clash with Ukraine's still-formidable military, which wouldn't be popular in Russia itself. "It's not Georgia," he says. "Putin wants to be at the same time a peacemaker and a troublemaker," he says. "He did it quite well in Syria."............

The 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and subsequent occupation of parts of it meant that the country had to shelve its EU and NATO ambitions for as long as Russia remains a hostile power. After his election, President Obama launched a "reset" in relations with Russia to smooth over the tensions from the Georgian war. The new president wouldn't take calls from Misha, as everyone informally calls Mr. Saakashvilli. "It took me three years to get to the Oval Office," he says. "Not that I enjoyed these tours to Washington, but it sent the wrong signal to the Russians." This time, he says, the U.S. should take a firmer line with Russia, and warn Mr. Putin to stay out of Ukraine. An invitation to Russia to work together on Ukraine—as extended by European and U.S. officials this week—only reinforces the impression of spoils on the table to be divided. "That's totally misunderstood by Putin," he says..........

[melmothtw]

Yes, and all the talk on here that Russia is really just upholding democracy in Ukraine is contemptible. It wasn't that long ago that Putin had the then-leader of the oppostion (to his power in the region) poisoned with dioxins.

Tells you all you need to know about Putin's views towards democracy and Ukraine.

[Wensleydale]

Its obviously not that serious....


Bill Turnbull on BBC News has just started the bulletin..."and now our main story this morning. Oscar Pistorius has just arrived at the courtroom at the start of his trial....."


And they deny dumbing down!:ugh:

[skua]

On the other hand, they have given the Crimea the ultimate accolade - they sent John Simpson there! Yesterday they were reporting his progress through various borders as though he was some invading force of his own...

[spamcanner]

BBC News seem more interested in the Oscars and that South African who shot his girlfriend than in a crisis situation that could change the lives of millions of people as well as wiping out the lives of many others. When will they ever get a grip on what really matters?

[Guernsey Girl II]

Skua,

I know the old one about the trouble starting when Kate Adie is around. But she has retired from front line reporting.

The modern equivalent is if Orla Guerin turns up in Ukraine we are all in the S:mad:

[4mastacker]

The modern equivalent is if Orla Guerin turns up in Ukraine we are all in the S..or Lyse Doucet?

[racedo]

TrimStab, no doubt you feel that the protesters who overthrew Caeusescu (the internationally recognised government of Romania) were just a mob, and the students in Tianammen Square were a mob who had what was coming to them.

Ukrainian president was democratically elected in 2010 with International observers happy it was a free and fair election.

[racedo]

Racedo, you're confusing 'state' and 'country'. Ukraine was not a state before the break-up of the Soviet Union (neither was Russia), but it definitely was a country (ask yourself, is England a country?).

I have never considered England a country, it is a Kingdom. It doesn't have its own Parliment, Currency or Prime Minister, it cannot enter into treaties on its own. It has its own Football team but then again so does San Marino and Gibraltar.

Ukraine as currently exists only came about 50 years.

[racedo]

And yet Russia is one the most vehement proclaimers of the principle that what goes on inside a state is a their own affair and not subject to outside interference....

The Times getting all moral is funny especially when they cheerleading the destruction in Libya and Satellite broadcasters proving targets for NATO air forces to attack.

[Emel.OW]

ORAC, pls don't confuse Syria and Ukraine - we've got too many Russian people and fellow citizens in Crimea, let alone our military and navy bases, we can't allow them to suffer from nazis that have come to power these days. Read about their idol Stepan Bandera Stepan Bandera - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera) and you'll be horrified.
I know it's just a big political game, but all this is very sad. No one wants a war between our brotherly people.

[Whenurhappy]

Except that his legitimacy as the leader was put in doubt by his unconstitutional changes to the UKR Constitution, reversal of the EU cooperation legislation, and then finally ordering the Police to use disproportionatly lethal force against peaceful protestors (and, no, it wasn't self defence). And then there's the evidence of his skimming the Public Purse when in office

[melmothtw]

Ukraine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine)

An entity (country / nation / call it what you will) that can be identifed as Ukraine, with a Ukrainian people has been in existance since 882.

The fact that it only most recently achieved its independence in 1991 is frankly neither here nor there. You can say the same for Russia and any other post-Soviet state.

Are you saying they are all fair game for invasion by who pleases to do so?


It doesn't have its own Parliment, Currency or Prime Minister, it cannot
enter into treaties on its own.


I refer you to my comment about confusing 'country' and 'state'.

[racedo]

Except that his legitimacy as the leader was put in doubt by his unconstitutional changes to the UKR Constitution, reversal of the EU cooperation legislation, and then finally ordering the Police to use disproportionatly lethal force against peaceful protestors (and, no, it wasn't self defence). And then there's the evidence of his skimming the Public Purse when in office

Lets see

Govts changing legislation...............happens all the time in every country
Unconstitutional Changes to Constitution.............you are saying Unconstitutional but sorry can I see the legals involved
Reversal of EU Cooperation legislation..........again Govts change legislation or interpret it to suit themselves, Obama on US constitution, UK Attorney General in saying Iraq war is ok, UK Govt in stating GCHQ recording everybody is ok
Police using Lethal force............again happens all the time across EU as police are allowed use Lethal force, remember in UK not a single policeman has been jailed for shooting someone

Evidence of skimming public purse............in which case produce the evidence that stands up in court, of course the Billionaire now in control of Ukraine will provide all the data, like the Interim President who destroyed all those records in 2005 as head of security.

[racedo]

An entity (country / nation / call it what you will) that can be identifed as Ukraine, with a Ukrainian people has been in existance since 882.

The fact that it only most recently achieved its independence in 1991 is frankly neither here nor there. You can say the same for Russia and any other post-Soviet state.

Are you saying they are all fair game for invasion by who pleases to do so?


US and its Allies seem to think that is the case.............

After all US State Department on record about plotting next Ukranian President and who they wished to have.

[melmothtw]

Govts changing legislation...............happens all the time in every
country
Unconstitutional Changes to Constitution.............you are saying
Unconstitutional but sorry can I see the legals involved
Reversal of EU
Cooperation legislation..........again Govts change legislation or interpret it
to suit themselves, Obama on US constitution, UK Attorney General in saying Iraq
war is ok, UK Govt in stating GCHQ recording everybody is ok
Police using
Lethal force............again happens all the time across EU as police are
allowed use Lethal force, remember in UK not a single policeman has been jailed
for shooting someone

Evidence of skimming public purse............in
which case produce the evidence that stands up in court, of course the
Billionaire now in control of Ukraine will provide all the data, like the
Interim President who destroyed all those records in 2005 as head of
security.


Here's one you missed off your list:

Russian military rolling into former Soviet states as Putin looks to reassert Russia's 'sphere of influence' (read, neo-imperialism) in the face of these now sovereign countries seeking greater ties with Europe/NATO and the West, as is their right to do so....happens all the time.

[Bastardeux]

Apparently there is a 'massive build-up' of Russian military hardware taking place on the Russian-Crimean border...a giant pincer movement perhaps, with the exercising forces on Ukraine's Northern border meeting the forces thrusting North from Crimea?

[rh200]

Apparently there is a 'massive build-up' of Russian military hardware taking place on the Russian-Crimean border...a giant pincer movement perhaps, with the exercising forces on Ukraine's Northern border meeting the forces thrusting North from Crimea?

Don't know why they would bother, they already have total unfetted control unless they intend to go further.

[Bastardeux]

That's exactly my point, are they about to seize all of Eastern Ukraine, as many world leaders are terrified of happening!

[rh200]

That's exactly my point, are they about to seize all of Eastern Ukraine, as many world leaders are terrified of happening!

No need to do half a job when you can do the whole job. I believe the Russian PM was saying he thinks there will be "another revolution". Which will be code for "Once there are suitable numbers of troops across the Ukraine" all those poor suppressed Russian compatriots and loyal to Russia Ukrainians can come out of hiding.

[melmothtw]

Of course, all of this unpleasentness could have been avoided if, after independence in 1991, Ukraine had taken a leaf out of Russia's book and how that country dealt with the populations of Konigsberg and the Kuril Islands.

Rather than pander to the rights of minorities, as Ukraine has had to do in Crimea, just expel them all and repopulate with your own kind. No need then to worry about future generations wanting to reunify with their former homelands.

[Ronald Reagan]

Russia And China 'In Agreement' Over Ukraine (http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine)

[melmothtw]

And Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union were in agreement over Poland, but what's your point?

[Ronald Reagan]

My point is Russia is not alone and does have the support of others.


Well done to Russia and Putin. They have done the right thing here.
He really is a brilliant leader, likely the best in the world today.

[melmothtw]

My point is Russia is not alone and does have the support of others.

As did Hitler, but again - what's your point?

China - that great champion of democracy and human rights. Expect to hear offers of support through from Damascus and Tehran any day now.

Well done to Russia and Putin. They have done the right thing here.
He
really is a brilliant leader, likely the best in the world today.

Wait a minute, I'm beginning to suspect that you're not Ronald Reagan at all!!!

[jackx123]

Russia is securing what was once theirs, that's all and since crimea is of highest military importance this is fully understandable.

I'll 2nd RR on Putin. He runs circles around the rest of the clowns in his sleep and he protects his country as any proper leader should.:D

__________________

On February 4th, 2013, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, addressed the Duma, (Russian Parliament), and gave a speech about the tensions with minorities in Russia:

"In Russia live Russians. Any minority, from anywhere, if it wants to live in Russia, to work and eat in Russia, should speak Russian, and should respect the Russian laws. If they prefer Shari'ya Law, then we advise them to go to those places where that's the state law. Russia does not need minorities. Minorities need Russia, and we will not grant them special privileges, or try to change our laws to fit their desires, no matter how loud they yell 'discrimination'. We better learn from the suicides of America, England, Holland and France, if we are to survive as a nation. The Russian customs and traditions are not compatible with the lack of culture or the primitive ways of most minorities. When this honorable legislative body thinks of creating new laws, it should have in mind the national interest first, observing that the minorities are not Russians.”

The politicians in the Duma gave Putin a standing ovation for five minutes!

[Simplythebeast]

Russia has given Ukranian Forces in Crimea until 03.00 UK time to surrender or face force according to news reports.

[Just a spotter]

From Reuters, 3rd March;

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has told Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 5 a.m. (0300 GMT) on Tuesday or face a military assault, Interfax news agency quoted a source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as saying.

Russia gives Ukrainian forces in Crimea ultimatum to surrender - Interfax | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303)

JAS

[Out Of Trim]

Latest Ukraine development..

Ukrainian Forces in Crimean Peninsular Face 03:00 Hrs GMT Deadline to Surrender or face Russian Storm.

Russian Forces will storm the Ukranian Bases.. Once the shooting starts who knows where it will end!:ooh:

[Roland Pulfrew]

democracy and human rights.

Ah. Democracy and human rights. We're doing a great job with those 2 systems aren't we! Alternative forms of governance are available and just as valid.

As for Putin, I'm with Ronnie - he's proving to be a very shrewd leader and I'm not sure there are any western leaders who come close right now.

[Pontius Navigator]

Remind me about Suez, Panama and Grenada.

[t43562]

Ah. Democracy and human rights. We're doing a great job with those 2 systems aren't we! Alternative forms of governance are available and just as valid.

I think we're doing marvellously. At least compared to the alternative that I used to have to live under.

[Basil]

Any minority, from anywhere, if it wants to live in Russia
I'd tend to agree - except that Ukraine is not Russia; it WAS part of the USSR.

[Hangarshuffle]

Where t3452 or whatever, I'm curious?


Media and politicos have gone into a freackin frenzy about this today, but I don't really know why, t'was always obvious this sort of thing was on the cards (just that no one in our Government thought he had the balls).
No-one gives a stuff about the Ukraine in our country anyway (including me-sorry but its true), be honest,the average UK joe is war weary and longs for some peace = who can blame them?


Putin/Russia, crack on because you are simply going to any way.


Our politicos, keep us well out (see if you can get that right).


ps if we upset Putin with sanctions etc as Hague is bigging up now on the radio, wont he then simply turn our gas as a reply.

[melmothtw]

Russia is securing what was once theirs, that's all and since crimea is of highest military importance this is fully understandable.

So Russia has no objection if Germany decides to take back what was once theirs - Kalingrad, and Japan what was once theirs - Kuril Islands (not to mention the parts of Georgia it effectively seized in 2008)?


Ah. Democracy and human rights. We're doing a great job with those 2 systems aren't we! Alternative forms of governance are available and just as valid.

As for Putin, I'm with Ronnie - he's proving to be a very shrewd leader and I'm not sure there are any western leaders who come close right now.



Hello Roland, what did I tell you about taking your meds?

[Roland Pulfrew]

what did I tell you about taking your meds?

Top reply Mel - I thought I was on your ignore list?

[melmothtw]

Nah, it was rab-k who put you on his ignore list. I just told you to take your meds.

[Wrathmonk]

wont he then simply turn our gas as a reply

Not sure exactly how much gas we physically get from Russia. A large chunk of our gas import requirement is met by LPG (mainly from Qatar) unlike the central and eastern european nations which almost solely rely on Russian gas (or gas that transits through Russia).

Won't stop the 'Big 6' energy companies raising their prices over the next few days/weeks and months.:mad:

[Ronald Reagan]

Switching Sides: Ukraine's Air Force brigade, Navy chief pledge allegiance to Crimea - YouTube (http://youtu.be/e5Y_wjT-530)

[NutLoose]

It annoys me that everyone is saying that the Crimea is welcoming this, the only people you see on the streets are the ones that probably do welcome it, those that are opposed to it are no doubt sitting at home sh*tting bricks.

Let's hope it doesn't go nuclear.

And call me old fashioned, but telling the World we will not react military is in effect giving Putin carte blanche to do what he wants

[SPIT]

Didn't Hitler state that he wanted to PROTECT GERMANS in the POLISH CORRIDOR in 1939 ???

[scr1]

Serbia 1914. Hungary 1956. Czechoslovakia 1968.

Ukraina 2014 ?

[Kitbag]

This all puts me in mind of the late great RH Jim Hacker (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=IX_d_vMKswE):



If it wasn't so tragic (and prescient) it would be funny

[FODPlod]

Not sure exactly how much gas we physically get from Russia...

The point many people tend to miss is that any reduction in the availability, free movement and supply of oil or gas has an immediate effect on world prices for everyone, not just those customers immediately affected who will subsequently be looking for alternative sources.

[NutLoose]

Not a lot compared to Germany. I bet Cameroon is kicking himself having turned down the plan to sort our gas storage facilities out.

Europe Faces Tough Choices Over Natural gas (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europe-Faces-Tough-Choices-Over-Natural-Gas.html)

[MPN11]

FODPlod ... how true. Anyone who watches the opening credits of HIGNFY will see that Russia has the ability to turn off critical supplies to the West. As do our Arab 'friends', and an independent Scotland :p

I can completely understand the Putin "Why" ... Black Sea Fleet = Suez and the Middle East and the NATO southern flank.

[awblain]

Putin's fleet has a big issue getting to Suez.

While there's agreements for access through the Bosphorus, there was an agreement about not threatening Ukraine too, so closing it to him would be even.

Gas was a big issue a decade ago. Not so much now. The important thing is to avoid giving him credit for increasing prices, although I would expect all gas from such a relatively dodgy locale coming through a restrictive pipe to be bought on very long-term contracts.

[NutLoose]

:ugh::ugh:

UK seeking to ensure Russia sanctions do not harm City of London | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/uk-seeks-russia-harm-city-london-document#)

[SASless]

Secret UK Government Document Says 'No Sanctions on Russia' (http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/03/03/UK-document-says-no-sanctions)


Wot Sanctions?

[Lonewolf_50]

USA in Grenada/Panama. Discuss.
Went in, got things sorted, got the fcuk out.

Next question?

[NutLoose]

You obviously never bothered to look at the link above did you SASless :E

It sort of puts the bull**** Gollum was spouting in Kiev today after he dropped off his flowers, I told you they would backtrack over their obligations.... Spineless muppets.

[ORAC]

The Battle for Eastern Ukraine Is Underway (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304360704579415384007671064?mod=WSJ_Opinion_ LEADTop&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702 304360704579415384007671064.html%3Fmod%3DWSJ_Opinion_LEADTop ) The pro-Russian protesters are bussed-in from Russia, but Putin knows that Kiev's hold on the region is weak.


Crimea was the appetizer. The real prize for Vladimir Putin is likely to be eastern Ukraine. Without this vast region of coal mines and factories, the Kremlin strongman won't be able to achieve his goal of either controlling, destabilizing or splitting Ukraine. Otherwise the takeover of the country's southern peninsula hardly seems worth the trouble.

The Kremlin's claims about the importance of ethnic Russian identity and language are just a sideshow in the struggle here. What's going on is a pure power play. Since Mr. Putin has nuclear weapons and no apparent care for world opinion, give him an edge. But eastern Ukraine won't be as easy to snare as Crimea, and the attempt could backfire on Mr. Putin. The Russian president is a man in a hurry. Russia has taken advantage of the inevitable chaos and uncertainty in post-revolutionary Kiev. A Moscow ally abandoned the presidency and fled town, and new pro-Western leaders formed a government only last Thursday. With each passing day, they should be getting a better grip over their state. The clock is perhaps their only true friend.

The Russian move on the east, beyond Crimea, began Saturday with protests in the industrial centers of Kharkiv, Donetsk and other cities. Television showed squares filled with thousands of Ukraine's ethnic Russians. Fiery speeches were made, local government buildings were stormed and topped with Russian flags, and calls for Moscow's help were issued by little-known local politicians. Right on cue, Russia's parliament accepted Mr. Putin's request to deploy military forces in Ukraine, citing "the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation." He gave himself the green light to go beyond Crimea.

These demonstrations were peculiar in places renowned for their political apathy and ethnic indifference. Political activists put deep roots in Kiev and in western Ukraine and made the revolution on the Maidan, or Independence Square. But the east feels, paradoxically, both more Soviet and more focused on business than Kiev. Polls in the region over the years showed virtually no support to leave Ukraine and join Russia. During the weeks of unrest in Kiev, Donetsk was quiet. Then suddenly on Saturday as many as 10,000 turned out in Lenin Square, a large number by local standards. A few things in the crowd stood out. Some of the watches that people wore were set to the time in Russia's Rostov region just across the border. Some demonstrators spoke with the harder "g" sound common in Russia. By one count, at least eight buses with Russian license plates were seen near the site. And where did so many Russian flags appear from in Ukraine? In Kharkiv and other towns, the core of protesters for Russian intervention seemed to be Russian citizens..........

The emerging Kiev strategy in the east is to line up establishment support for a single Ukraine and restore control over state institutions. This may make it harder for the Kremlin to use bussed-in demonstrators or little-known political proxies as an excuse to intervene by force. Mr. Putin could still try to make do with Russia-friendly political leaders in the Yanukovych mould. But there's a danger here too for Mr. Putin. Eastern Ukrainians are, as Russian nationalists point out, close—but not the same—as Russians. If Ukraine survives his assault by the Kremlin, then their path to Europe and away from Mr. Putin's Eurasia fantasy will be clearer. And if eastern Ukrainians can live in a European democracy, then why not Russians?

[NutLoose]

But eastern Ukraine won't be as easy to snare as Crimea, and the attempt could backfire on Mr. Putin. The Russian president is a man in a hurry. Russia has taken advantage of the inevitable chaos and uncertainty in post-revolutionary Kiev. A Moscow ally abandoned the presidency and fled town, and new pro-Western leaders formed a government only last Thursday. With each passing day, they should be getting a better grip over their state. The clock is perhaps their only true friend.

Bit of a dodgy area to fight a war with nuclear power plants in the region

Nuclear Power Plants Map Ukraine Fr - Mapsof.net (http://mapsof.net/map/nuclear-power-plants-map-ukraine-fr)

It could all end in tears.

[racedo]

Putin's fleet has a big issue getting to Suez.

While there's agreements for access through the Bosphorus, there was an agreement about not threatening Ukraine too, so closing it to him would be even.

Really

Figure the $2 Billion arms deal with Egypt makes it easy....

[awblain]

Egypt? Or Turkey?

Getting to Egypt remains tricky without bribing Turkey.

[racedo]

No need as have right of access of Bosphorus under a treaty.

Course could be blocked but then again it would find no Gas coming in.

[SASless]

Just a second source for its comments Nutty.....same reason for the article but an American slant on it.

[awblain]

Racedo,

There's a treaty not to be aggressive to Ukraine too.

Closing the Bosphorus to Putin's Grey Funnel line sounds fair in return.

Then again, the WTO's response to Putin manipulating the natural gas market might be very sobering for him too.

[Ronald Reagan]

Lawmaker: Yanukovych asks Russian parliament to help Crimea (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/lawmaker-yanukovych-asks-russian-parliament-to-help-crimea-338134.html)
The Russian military is there with the approval of the legitimate Ukrainian President.

[racedo]

Closing the Bosphorus to Putin's Grey Funnel line sounds fair in return.

Then again, the WTO's response to Putin manipulating the natural gas market might be very sobering for him too.

Turkey tried that once regarding Syria and found its farm exports to Russia were going to have huge issues in being held up at port, Turkey changed its idea v quickly then.

[awblain]

The ousted pseudo-dictator with more duck houses than the whole House of Commons, removed by the legislature after protests against his corruption lead to completely unjustified violence, is whining to his puppetmaster that he'd like his job back? Or perhaps to become King of Crimea, since Ukraine won't take him back.

Isn't the mantra "The Russian military is there to safeguard Russian minority during this uncertain time". Is your songsheet broken?

[racedo]

He was democratically elected in 2010.

[NutLoose]

And I suppose it's part of the democratic constitution he was elected under to shoot your citizens in cold blood too, let's not forget that was the turning point in his career. He was elected to run the country, not murder those members of it.

[awblain]

Yes, he was elected in 2010, and he was removed under the rule of law in 2014.

Turkey's case is now stronger.

Maybe they can throw these recent farm export obstructions into the WTO while they're looking at Putin's price manipulation in the natural gas market?

[jackx123]

in the name of democracy Britain should then become a muslim state, or at least that's where it's heading :eek:

[rh200]

Ukraine's lawmaker Viktor Chumak has said 22 Ukrainian units in Crimea are still guarding their bases, Ukraine's Espreso TV reports.


I'm wondering if any thought has been given by people about the poor b@rstards who are doing their duty and are totally isolated. It would have to be extremely stressful cut off like that.


Wonder if a International contingent could escort those who want leave out?

[ORAC]

BBC pointing out that Russian forces in Crimea are a bit of a bluff - 6000 lightly armed airborne forces flown in with a few BMPs along with the navy marines. Meanwhile the Ukrainian army in their barracks have awl the heavy armour - tanks and artillery - on the peninsula. Ukraine also occupies all land access routes. If they stay loyal it could be messy. Think "A Bridge Too Far".

Army vs Black Sea fleet guns - how long to make sail or be sunk at anchor by howitzer of tank fire from the shore?

[Trim Stab]

I think the West is going to end up looking a bit silly in this. Russia has morale authority here since Yanukovych invited them in. The Russians have come in with a small force appropriate to the mission of protecting civilians and stabilising the Crimea.

On the other hand, we are trying to prop up a mob who ousted a democratically elected President, broadcasting laughable mob propaganda that Russia is threatening to attack, and now threatening sanctions that will affect our own economies as much as Russia's.

We'd be better off agreeing to help the Russians sort it out. At least we would then have some say in the future shape of Ukraine.

[awblain]

If W invited Mexico to guard San Diego would Americans be happy?
Or if Gordon Brown invited Belgium to guard Dover?

While they left at the end of a natural term, if they'd been impeached/lost a no-confidence vote, if would be no different.

The Ukrainians have the say in the future of Ukraine, and the Crimeans in the future of Crimea.

[Fitter2]

Trim stab


exactly the same arguments used when Herr Schickelgruber occupied the Sudetenland.


That went well....

[dctyke]

Sounds familiar, what did Cameron and Hague do about this headline of 3yrs ago?

Hundreds of Saudi troops have entered Bahrain to help protect government facilities there amid escalating protests against the government.

Bahrain television on Monday broadcast images of troops in armoured cars entering the Gulf state via the 26km causeway that connects the kingdom to Saudi Arabia.

The arrival of the troops follows a request to members of the Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) from Bahrain, whose Sunni rulers have faced weeks of protests and growing pressure from a majority Shia population to institute political reforms.

[GreenKnight121]

On the other hand, we are trying to prop up a mob who ousted a democratically elected President,

Democratically elected Parliament

broadcasting laughable mob propaganda that Russia is threatening to attack,

When both houses of Russia's Parliament approve military invasion of sovereign Ukrainian territory (which Russia signed a treaty promising to never do), and its President then orders troops to carry out said invasion, its neither laughable nor mob propaganda - it is reality.

We'd be better off agreeing to help the Russians sort it out. At least we would then have some say in the future shape of Ukraine.

Yes, completely deprive them of their inalienable human right of political self-determination.

How Socialist of you, Komerade.


As I said before - hold a UN-run election, and any oblast (province) which votes for Russia is allowed to secede, and any that votes to remain in Ukraine is allowed to do so.

The new national border is drawn, and that's an end of it!

[Trim Stab]

exactly the same arguments used when Herr Schickelgruber occupied the Sudetenland.

Not the same at all - Hacha did not invite Hitler in to invade Czechoslovakia - he was forced to surrender and indeed had a heart-attack at the same time. The situation here is in no way similar to the build up to WW2.

Yanukovych remains the elected President of Ukraine. If we are not going to respect that, and side with mob-rule, then we make a mockery of democracy the world over.

[Party Animal]

If W invited Mexico to guard San Diego would Americans be happy?
Or if Gordon Brown invited Belgium to guard Dover?




awblain,

If Belgium had MPA then, yes we would be asking them to defend Dover. As it happens, we now ask the French, Norwegians, Germans, US and Canadians!

But back to the Ukraine - I now see that the warning of 'huge repercussions' from the west has now been actioned. The US is suspending participation in military exercises with Russia!!! That'll teach them.

A US spokeswoman is also bleating about the occupation of a sovereign nation based on a false story being told in the UN is utterly outrageous!!

Can't believe they can keep a straight face. Also can't believe journo's are not asking the question to the likes of Hague etc to explain what the difference is between now and Iraq.

[ORAC]

Noam Chomsky in the Crimea (http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/03/chomsky-in-the-crimea/) :D:D

Lindsey German explains it all to you (http://hurryupharry.org/2014/03/02/lindsey-german-explains-it-all-to-you/) Hooray for Billy Bragg....

[Trim Stab]

Can't believe they can keep a straight face. Also can't believe journo's are not asking the question to the likes of Hague etc to explain what the difference is between now and Iraq.

Agreed - the acquiescence of the mainstream newspapers is infuriating.

[awblain]

Trim,

Invading Iraq had inadequate, but some, UN support. Invading Iraq without correct approval has damaged the west's ability to complain about Russian in the Ukraine, but the situations aren't quite the same.

The majority-Russian Crimeans might have a legitimate need for protection (although there's no sign of any need). If so, it seems reasonable during a time of uncertainty for them to seek help from their friends. But the legally deposed ruler has no such right to call for anything. It wasn't a coup.He got busted. End of story.

Party,

If Cameron asked Belgium to defend Dover, then that would be fine. He's the legitimate executive.

Brown has no say now, although he could have asked for Belgian help in early 2010.

[awblain]

dctyke,

What happens when a dictator, illegitimate but in-power, asks for help from friends to oppress his population? That's difficult.

What if the oppressed had sought help from outside to oust the dictator? That's more like the situation in Iraq.

Ukraine is cleaner than either: the legislature legally replaced the executive, and now he's whining to his powerful friends.

(And practically, it's very difficult when the dictator has oil.)

[melmothtw]

Yanukovych remains the elected President of Ukraine. If we are not going to
respect that, and side with mob-rule, then we make a mockery of democracy the world over.


The same Yanukovych who is now sat in a foreign country begging his masters to send in their army to give 'his' country back to him. 'Mockery of democracy', you said?

[Party Animal]

awblain


Invading Iraq had inadequate, but some, UN support. Invading Iraq without correct approval has damaged the west's ability to complain about Russian in the Ukraine, but the situations aren't quite the same.




UN support for the invasion of Iraq was based on an entirely false premise or lies if you wish to use stronger rhetoric. Nevertheless, western forces took over the entire country by force and gained absolute control.

Russia has sent in a very small force to a very small part of the Ukraine and so far they have neither killed innocent people from a sovreign nation or openly attempted to change the leadership of the country.

So you are absolutely right - the situations aren't quite the same are they.

Before this gets misinterpreted by the way, I strongly disagree with the Russian actions and I support western leadership in their condemnation. But I would expect a bit more sheepishness from the US and UK instead of the outraged audacity currently being spouted.

[Roland Pulfrew]

Russia has sent in a very small force to a very small part of the Ukraine and so far they have neither killed innocent people from a sovreign nation or openly attempted to change the leadership of the country.



I also understand, although I admit I haven't checked, that the Russian troop movements are well within its treaty limits with the Ukraine; so no actual "invasion". Semantics? Possibly, or a very shrewd move on Russia's part.

[racedo]

Yes, he was elected in 2010, and he was removed under the rule of law in 2014.


Nope he was removed under Mob rule.

[melmothtw]

I would hazard a guess that these treatries do not have clauses in them allowing the Russians to surround Ukrainian military bases in the Crimea and demand the surrender of those inside, or to park trucks across Ukrainian Air Force runways, or to break into the regional parliament to assist in the installation of a puppet government which then promptly 'asks' for military help from Moscow.

[Trim Stab]

The same Yanukovych who is now sat in a foreign country begging his masters to send in their army to give 'his' country back to him. 'Mockery of democracy', you said?


Yanukovych was not legally removed from power - he was forced to flee by mobs in Kiev. Plenty of people in other parts of Ukraine supported him and continue to support him. There is now no democratic process in Ukraine.

The West should have worked with Russia to uphold the constitution of Ukraine - too late now..

[melmothtw]

Yanukovych was not legally removed from power


Neither was Hitler, Causecsu, Saddam Hussein, Idi Amin, Milosovic.

he was forced to flee by mobs in Kiev.

Yanukovych was foced to flee because, having ordered his forces to open fire on and kill civilian demonstrators, he realised the jig was up.



There is now no democratic process in Ukraine.


How can there be when a foreign army has invaded and is occupying parts of the country?

[NutLoose]

11:40:
Highlights from President Putin's news conference which has now ended:

Events in Kiev amount to an anti-constitutional coup


Former President Yanukovych has no political future
Russian forces have not taken part in operations in Crimea
Russia is not thinking of annexing Crimea
Threat of sanctions from the West is counter-productive
Russian actions in Ukraine are in accordance with international law
Russia will not recognise the outcome of upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine if the current "terror" continues


11:29:

Asked by a journalist about a possible "compromise candidate" running in Ukraine's presidential elections, President Putin responds: "Personally, I can't even think of one." (BBC Monitoring)

11:24:

President Putin: Ukraine should approve a new constitution through a referendum, but this is "none of our business", only Ukrainians can decide. (BBC Monitoring)

11:24:

President Putin: Russia will not recognise the outcome of upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine if the current "terror" continues. (BBC Monitoring)

11:19:

President Putin: "I ordered the government to resume contacts with their counterparts in Ukrainian ministries [and] Russian PM Medvedev is "in contact" with Ukrainian counterpart Yatsenyuk. (BBC Monitoring)

11:18:

President Putin: "Fully-fledged relations" with Ukraine can only be restored after a new president is elected. (BBC Monitoring)

11:16:

Asked if Russian forces took part in operations in Crimea, President Putin says: "No, they did not participate," adding: "There are lots of uniforms that look similar." (AFP)

11:14:

President Putin: [Former President] Yanukovych has no political future, "and I have told this to him". "He would have been killed in Ukraine had we not helped him." (BBC Monitoring)

11:12:

President Putin: Offers medical treatment to Ukrainian police injured in clashes and say that recalling the Russian ambassador from Washington is "an extreme measure". (BBC Monitoring)


11:10:

Speaking about the threat of sanctions President Putin says "all threats against Russia are counterproductive and harmful", adding that Russia was ready to host the G8 but if Western leaders did not want to come "they don't need to". (Reuters)

11:08:

President Putin: "There is a point of view that snipers who shot demonstrators in Kiev were actually provocateurs from an opposition party. [Former President] Yanukovych assured me he did not order police to fire at protesters." (BBC Monitoring)

11:05:

President Putin: Armed groups who seized power in Crimea were "local forces of self defence", not Russian soldiers. (Reuters)

11:04:

President Putin says he is not thinking of annexing Crimea, but people there should enjoy the right to self-determination. (BBC Monitoring)

11:02:

President Putin: "There's no-one in Kiev for me to hold talks with, there's no legitimate president." (BBC Monitoring).

11:00:

President Putin: "Those who think of imposing sanctions should think of [the] consequences, [because the] damage will be mutual. (BBC Monitoring)

10:59:

President Putin: "Our actions are often described by the West as not legitimate, but look at US operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. "Our actions are legitimate from the point of view of international law, because Ukraine's legitimate president asked us for help. "Defending these people is in our interests, this is a humanitarian mission, we do not want to 'enslave' anyone." (BBC Monitoring)

10:55:

President Putin: Markets in Russia were "nervous" before the events in Ukraine because of the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve, so latest market instability not directly related to Ukraine (BBC Monitoring).

10:53:

President Putin: Russia reserves the right to use all means to protect Russians in Ukraine (AP).

10:50:

President Putin: Neo-Nazis and anti-Semites are rampant in Ukraine and particularly in Kiev, people in eastern Russia are worried, and "we reserve the right to use all means available" to defend them if they ask us, but this is "an extreme measure" (BBC Monitoring).

10:48:

President Putin: Deployment of Russian armed forces is the last resort (BBC Monitoring).

10:47:

President Putin: No need to send in troops to Ukraine now, but the possibility of this remains (BBC Monitoring).

10:46:

President Putin: Ukraine's parliament "partially legitimate", but not other government agencies and particularly not acting President Turchynov. Even though [former President] Yanukovych has no power, he is still the legitimate president from the legal point of view, because he has never been impeached (BBC Monitoring).


10:42:

I understand people in Kiev's Maidan (Independence Square) who demand radical change - President Putin says (BBC Monitoring).

10:40:

On 21 February, [deposed President] Yanukovych agreed to everything the opposition demanded, effectively surrendering power, but he stood no chance of re-election - President Putin says (BBC Monitoring).

10:36: Breaking News

President Putin tells a news conference that events in Kiev amount to an anti-constitutional coup and armed seizure of power, but Russia will only use force as a last resort.

10:44:

President Putin: the Ukrainian people wanted change but "illegal change" cannot be encouraged (Reuters)

So who's troops are they?

[rh200]

Putin
Russian forces have not taken part in operations in Crimea
And
So who's troops are they?

I think that just about answers any questions of legitimacy of anything that came our of Putins mouth. Maybe its a bit like bill Clinton and the (I did not have sex with that women). There might be a technicality that they arn't on an operation.

[melmothtw]

President Putin: Russia reserves the right to use all means to protect
Russians in Ukraine (AP).


Does Russia reserve the right to protect Russians in any other country in the world?

[Roland Pulfrew]

Does Russia reserve the right to protect Russians in any other country in the world?

Actually most countries reserve the right to protect their own citizens around the world - as an example the South Sudan evacuation of UK citizens; the government's involvement in accounting for British citizens in the Philippines last year; Libya NEO; British forces deployed to Lebanon a few years ago to evacuate British citizens. There are just different ways of achieving the protection.

[NutLoose]

So if these are not Russian troops, no problems shooting at them then :E

[rh200]

So if these are not Russian troops, no problems shooting at them then

Fairly sure that the identity of said not Russian troops would be clarified if some American attack helicopters suddenly showed up on the scene at the invitation of the Ukrainians.:p

[melmothtw]

Actually most countries reserve the right to protect their own citizens
around the world - as an example the South Sudan evacuation of UK citizens; the government's involvement in accounting for British citizens in the Philippines last year; Libya NEO; British forces deployed to Lebanon a few years ago to evacuate British citizens. There are just different ways of achieving the protection.


That's not what Putin is talking about here - he is talking about armed intervention in the affiars of another sovereign country on the pretext of defending the 'right's of Russian speakers there.

Just to note, the 'Russians' in Crimea are legally Ukrainian and not citizens of Russia. Even if they were, that doesn't excuse what Russia is doing. By your argument, the UK could legally invade Spain to defend the rights of the expats living there.

[Trim Stab]

Neither was Hitler, Causecsu, Saddam Hussein, Idi Amin, Milosovic.

And not a single one of those was democratically elected, and all systematically abused human rights in their countries. Trying to put Yanukovych in the same light as those shows that you have a lack of understanding of modern Ukraine.

Before I also get cast in the wrong light, I am no supporter of Yanukovych or Putin, but I am angered and exasperated at the appalling double-standards of our own government in foreign policy. If they had seized the chance early in the early days of the Ukrainian uprising to work with Russia to ensure that the Ukrainian constitution was upheld then we would not be in this situation. Instead, they stood by while the Ukrainian government became boxed into an impossible situation, blood was spilt on the streets, and now there is a possibility of worse to come.

[t43562]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZolXrjGIBJs
Interesting - RT presenter going a bit off message

"According to Krishnan Guru-Murthy: "Russia Today management tell me @AbbyMartin was misled by American mainstream media but is welcome to stay at work"

.. for the next couple of days.

[Roland Pulfrew]

By your argument, the UK could legally invade Spain to defend the rights of the expats living there.

Nope, that is not what I am saying and the percentage populations are hugely different ie Brits in Spain are a tiny minority whereas Russians in Crimea form 30+% of the population. However a NEO can be a legal invasion - but with a view to evacuation of entitled persons. We "invaded" Libya, South Sudan and Lebanon with armed personnel, but with a view to protecting EPs and then withdrawing. Given Russia's vital national interests in the Crimea they have chosen to do it differently, or not - according to Putin's conference.

[melmothtw]

Hitler was democractically elected.

[melmothtw]

Roland, if Putin is so sure of his legal rights to 'intervene' in Ukraine then why have his forces removed their insignias and why is he denying they are even there? Simple, because it is not legal.



the percentage populations are hugely different ie Brits in Spain


Actually, there are parts of Spain where the Brits are in the majority (as in Crimea).

[racedo]

Hitler was democractically elected.

Only the first time, after that he assummed power by killing and jailing his opponents.

[racedo]

but I am angered and exasperated at the appalling double-standards of our own government in foreign policy.

There is no double standard.

The standard is "we will say whatever is needed and then do whatever we feel we need to do to ensure the money coming into the city still comes in."

[racedo]

Actually, there are parts of Spain where the Brits are in the majority (as in Crimea).

Name them and show the source data.................and when you say parts then I do mean large geographical parts not a tiny village or town.

[racedo]

Actually most countries reserve the right to protect their own citizens around the world

REagan Grenada | Video | C-SPAN.org (http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4466398/reagan-grenada)

Ronnie on Grenada when protecting 1000 Americans was primary concern.

[melmothtw]

Yes, and you'll recall racedo that the British government went batsh#t at the US government for invading a Commonwealth country.

[racedo]

Is that the criteria racedo? International law says its ok to invade a large geographical part to protect your 'citizens', but not a tiny village or town?

The size of the area being invaded isn't the issue here. Are you being deliberately obtuse, or does it just come naturally?

You claimed Brits are majority of population in parts of Spain.................you now been asked to back that up.

Area IS an issue as otherwise 2 neigbours from same country can claim they no need to follow UK law as they majority in their 2 houses but that was what you were deliberately trying to frame in your comment.

So again please highlight parts of Spain where Brits in the majority.

[melmothtw]

You claimed Brits are majority of population in parts of
Spain.................you now been asked to back that up.

Area IS an
issue as otherwise 2 neigbours from same country can claim they no need to
follow UK law as they majority in their 2 houses but that was what you were
deliberately trying to frame in your comment.

So again please highlight
parts of Spain where Brits in the majority.


SEE MY REPLY AND READ THE LINK!!!!! :mad:

[racedo]

Yes, and you'll recall racedo that the British government went batsh#t at the US government for invading a Commonwealth country.

So you accuse Russians of Imperialism while aghast that something happens in a commonwealth country that you didn't give permission for.....

[racedo]

SEE MY REPLY AND READ THE LINK!!!!! :mad:

Oh I did and NOWHERE did it say that Brits were in a Majority, it mentioned San Fulgencio (Area 7,6 Sq miles, Population 12500) where majority of VOTERs were FOREIGN or Lliber (Area 8.5 sq miles, Pop 1070) where again majority of VOTERS were FOREIGN.

London: Census Profile | The Migration Observatory (http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/london-census-profile)

But hey given that London Borough of Brent have 55% of its population non UK born then nice to see you wish London to have lots of countries involved in it.

[Ronald Reagan]

Yanukovich asks Russia to prevent unstable Ukraine 'from further deteriorating' - YouTube (http://youtu.be/l03kD5h8EOk)

[Roland Pulfrew]

racedo

You really seem to have some issues that have involved personal abuse of anybody who disagrees with you.

T'was ever thus with mellie.

But hey given that London Borough of Brent have 55% of its population non UK born then nice to see you wish London to have lots of countries involved in it.

In addition, isn't London the 4th or 5th largest city in France by French occupation?

[Lonewolf_50]

Uh, if we could get back to the topic of Ukraine 2014 ... ;)

SecStateKerry makes a bit of noise in the press today (http://www.nbcnews.com/#/storyline/ukraine-crisis/kerry-kiev-nothing-strong-about-how-russia-acting-n44081)

I wonder who he thinks reads, and believes, his utterances.

[GlobalNav]

A bit of noise is all he is capable of uttering. He and Jane

[Trim Stab]

I wonder who he thinks reads, and believes, his utterances.

And he left without answering questions from the press, which made his display appear even less robust.

[Basil]

President Putin: Neo-Nazis and anti-Semites are rampant in Ukraine and particularly in Kiev,
Gimme a break. Never any pogroms in Russia? Spot of name calling, I think.

people in eastern Russia are worried
Bit of a Freudian slip there?

President Putin: Russia reserves the right to use all means to protect Russians in Ukraine


Still keeping that straight face?

Former President Yanukovych has no political future.
Isn't that up to the Ukraine Parliament? Admittedly they DID dismiss him, didn't they?

[Just a spotter]

Reports that Russia has test fired an ICBM (March 4th)

MOSCOW, March 4 (Reuters) - Russia said it had successfully test-fired an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) on Tuesday, with tensions high over its seizure of control in the Crimea and its threat to send more forces to its neighbour Ukraine.

Russia test-fires ICBM amid tension over Ukraine (http://www.trust.org/item/20140304184241-xtvm6)

some referenced information from Wikipedia
RT-2UTTKh Topol-M - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RT-2UTTH_Topol_M)

JAS

[Basil]

Reports that Russia has test fired an ICBM
Someone, please tell me how that can improve the situation?

[Lonewolf_50]

Wait a sec. If the Russians had their program going along, and had scheduled a launch some months ago for this month, how is their adhering to their schedule necessarily related to what is up with the Ukraine?

FFS, nations can multi-task. I'd not immediately associate the two events. It is possible that it was a signal sent, but I am willing to go with Occam's razor and presume that the test was part of a program plan.

[Trim Stab]

Someone, please tell me how that can improve the situation?

Planned and announced a long time ago - they don't just pop them off on a whim.

Admittedly, they could have postponed the test, but probably they decided that it would not matter. The only people making a fuss are the press and that will have blown over by tomorrow. Complete non-story.

[West Coast]

No, it's not a complete non story. Maybe in your head, but not to everyone. It's a provocation in a tense situation to flex your muscles when your nose to nose with an opponent.

Btw, how do you know this was a long planned test?

[TEEEJ]

NutLoose wrote

So who's troops are they?

Putin is still going with the very well-trained self-defence forces line! I think I could see his nose getting bigger as he said it! ;)

When asked about the armed men who have taken over Crimean government buildings wearing military uniforms without insignia, he said they were not Russian, defying the observations of numerous journalists. Military experts said they were too well-trained to be anything but an elite force.

“Look at former Soviet republics,” he said. “You can go to a store and buy a uniform. Were these Russian soldiers? No, they’re very well-trained self-defense forces.”

Putin says he reserves right to protect Russians in Ukraine - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-reserves-the-right-to-use-force-in-ukraine/2014/03/04/92d4ca70-a389-11e3-a5fa-55f0c77bf39c_story.html)

[Basil]

Yes, points taken, but do we know when the customary notification was given to NATO?

[reynoldsno1]

Military experts said they were too well-trained to be anything but an elite force
Their ROE seem a bit flaky - loosing off rounds over unarmed Ukrainian military personnel smacks of panic ....

[BEagle]

Surely someone more reasonable than Hague-the-mekon or that utter ar$e Kerry could have been sent to the area?

Putin must wonder what on earth the West is doing sending such people.

[West Coast]

I don't think he really cares who the west sends.

[TEEEJ]

Russian soldier asked about the lack of insignia. The reporter got the brand new uniform story! ;)

b0Z8ymyhx8A&feature=related

Basically the reporter asks the Buryat soldier who are they where they are from, ect. The soldier mumbles in his answers (geez, nobody told them what to say), but when asked about the uniform. He replies, "this is a good brand new uniform of the Russian armed forces. Why are there no chevrons or other insignia?" The soldier continues, "no insignia because I've told you IT'S A BRAND NEW UNIFORM".

From

Situation in the Ukraine/Crimea *Photos - Videos* ONLY - Page 71 (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?236005-Situation-in-the-Ukraine-Crimea-*Photos-Videos*-ONLY&p=7071237&viewfull=1#post7071237)

[Willard Whyte]

Someone, please tell me how that can improve the situation?

One less missile to **** up the world.

Other than that, not much.

If the Russians had their program going along, and had scheduled a launch some months ago for this month, how is their adhering to their schedule necessarily related to what is up with the Ukraine?

Easy to cancel a test if needs be, isn't it? A test firing doesn't really help, if one subscribes to reality.

Not hard to reschedule either, given that Sov.., err, Russian, rocket forces are certainly on constant standby.

[Willard Whyte]

Surely someone more reasonable than Hague-the-mekon or that utter ar$e Kerry could have been sent to the area?

More than happy for the UK to send 650 parliamentary 'fact finders'...

Assuming it all 'kicks off'.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Is Russia not a signatory to the Geneva Conventions?
Do said conventions not require armed troops to be identifiable?

Is there not one member of the international media with the brains to know this & point it out? (No, ed.)

[SASless]

Fox.....if you are invading another country in violation of numerous Treaties and the like.....do you think the absence of rank badges and unit patches is going to be an issue to those calling the shots?

You are entirely correct in your comments but I have to think that is way down the list of concerns laying on Mr. Putin's desk blotter right now.

Who knows....absent the markings.....they might be passed off as some sort of Contract Security Company and not Russian Military forces.

Plausible Denial?

[GlobalNav]

"I don't think he really cares who the west sends."

And in spite of how hopping mad EU, NATO, US etc. are about this, unless they are truly willing to do something substantial (i.e., that impresses dear Vladimir) we should not care too much either who is sent or what empty words they have to say.

And our leaders better be careful, we shouldn't threaten to put boots on the ground unless we are willing to do it, and we should not be willing to do it unless we are willing to achieve real results, no matter the costs, including the lives on both sides. If its not worth the lives lost, don't enter into it. Otherwise, its Mr. Chamberlain all over again, or worse yet, WWI. No lives are worth political B.S. I don't care what Clauswitz said.

Historically and culturally, Crimea, at least was Russian and while I don't like anything Putin says or does, I understand Russian motivation. Not to mention that its also the base for Russian Navy. Crimea never meant that much to the rest of us.

If we are going to make a big cold war stand (which I doubt) then we are already behind the curve. Vlad will have his fait accompli very soon now.

[TEEEJ]

Ukrainian Frigate returning from anti-piracy operations is now back in the Black Sea. She was flying a large Ukrainian Flag as she passed through the Turkish Straits.

Images at following link

http://turkishnavy.net/

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

SASless. Yes, since Putin is playing the illegal coup card (by the Ukranian Parliament), and loses the moral high ground if he's discovered doing the same himself.

[Lonewolf_50]

Can someone explain to me this story of Russian troops firing at/over Ukranian troops? Does not seem to have made my usual news feeds.

:confused:
EDIT: got a link from TEEJ, thanks. :ok:

EDIT 2:
Missile test was on the books.

A senior U.S. official told NBC News that the test launch had been "on the books for some time prior to the current crisis in Ukraine."
"This was a previously notified and routine test launch of an ICBM (http://www.nbcnews.com/#/storyline/ukraine-crisis/russias-test-firing-icbm-planned-suspicious-n44326)," National Security Council spokesperson Caitlin Hayden said in a statement.
"As required under the New START Treaty, Russia provided advance notification of this launch to the United States," she said. "Such advance notifications are intended to provide transparency, confidence, and predictability and to help both sides avoid misunderstandings. Russia and the United States routinely flight test their ICBMs and SLBMs."

[Hangarshuffle]

Calculated and deliberate by Russia - as both sides seem to be using identical uniform and military firearms/equipment, future close combat will look confusing to the western media audiance further underlying how close this is to a civil war, or how close the Ukraine and Russia really are, how sad this war may be. (Defuse a Russia v underdog image).


Western Media tonight seem irritated by the lack of blood so far (the utter vultures if you are reading).


Thought those Russian Troops who fired the warning shots over the column of approaching Ukrainians were in a way, a model of sense, humanity.
They seemed far older and therefore more mature than many other nationals I could mention.

[TEEEJ]

No problem, Lonewolf :ok:

Continuing on the subject of lack of insignia.

I also just read that some Ukrainian internet useres noticed in one of the photos one of the soldiers forgot to take off his name tag. Searching for him on vkontakte (the Russian facebook) they found him, with information on his page about his Russian military unit (GRU, military intelligence).

http://i.imgur.com/NpUhYCm.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh1kEa1CAAAH9-k.jpg

From

Ukraine is game to you? - Ars Technica OpenForum (http://arstechnica.com/civis/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=1235407&start=680)

[rh200]

Can someone explain to me this story of Russian troops firing at/over Ukranian troops? Does not seem to have made my usual news feeds.

Yea it was metioned on the BBC live feed with a link to a twitter account. There actually seems to be a lot going around the Besieged Ukrainian forces that isn't being reported. It seems that early reports of turning sides where overstated.

Anyway it looked like they wanted to get back to their aircraft and jobs, so marched on them unarmend. Heard later reports that the wives of said soldiers then got between them as well. Also heard later reports of some other pro Russia civilians then got involved acting as a buffer between them too.

Its all a big Mexican standoff with every one trying to make sure they arn't the first ones to start a shooting match. Not sure how it would all go if there wern't so many reporters around with live feeds.

[Roland Pulfrew]

Surely removal of insignia is one of the very first steps of opsec when going on ops? I know it may not be de riguere (sp?) in 2014 but it sure as hell was in the 90s. Maybe these units just practice (slightly) better opsec?!

[unmanned_droid]

Removal of unit insignia is one thing - removal of rank tabs and name tabs is another in my book considering the Geneva Convention allows that information to be given freely. How do you know who you've got if there's nothing to confirm the story he's giving you?

That GRU guy is about to find out what salt tastes like!

[Flash2001]

If they're not bearing insignia can they be shot out of hand as francs-tireurs if captured?

After an excellent landing etc...

[Roland Pulfrew]

Droid

name tabs is another

Removal of name tags is/was policy. Not sure about removal of rank insignia but seem to remember that this is/was also perfectly acceptable. Wearing v admitting were 2 different things. It's all down opsec.

[unmanned_droid]

Crimean irregulars?

Utter Bullsh*t!

This pic from the link above shows 'irregulars' carrying brand new Grenade Launchers with shiny new optics oh, and look, are those UGLs on those shiny AK74s in the background?

http://www.armamentresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/14ilses.jpg

[unmanned_droid]

Roland:

OK, thanks - I forgot about ID tags, they'd fulfil minimum ID confirmation.

In retrospect and digging in to the memory banks, I can understand very low visibility rank tabs so as to not mark out the chain of command too easily. I understand that rank insignia has been used as an aiming point in past conflicts.

[SASless]

Welfare Man stated Military Action has not been considered and shall not be an Option. Whew.....at least now we don't have to worry about getting dragged into something really ugly!:ok:

[NutLoose]

Thought those Russian Troops who fired the warning shots over the column of approaching Ukrainians were in a way, a model of sense, humanity.
They seemed far older and therefore more mature than many other nationals I could mention.

One would have said the images of mowing down 300 unarmed troops and part of the worlds press in front of the other half of the worlds press was more to do with the fact than any sense of humanity. Putinocio wouldn't be very happy at that, as they would then be shown as the aggressors and the Worlds actions may take a turn for the worse.

[Basil]

BBC News - Russia Today presenter goes off-script over Ukraine crisis (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26435744)

A presenter on the Kremlin-sponsored TV channel Russia Today has used her show to condemn Russian military action in Crimea, Ukraine.
Abby Martin, who presents a programme from America called Breaking The Set for Russia Today, told viewers she was "strongly against any state intervention in sovereign nations' affairs".

"There will be no reprimands - but it is sending her to Crimea to get a close-up view of the story."
Ouch!

[rh200]

One has to feel sorry for the Ukrainian soldiers, this about the standoff at one of the airbases,.

From the Mark Lowen twitter feed
As Ukrainian soldiers retreated from #Belbek (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Belbek&src=hash) base today, one told us "we leave as victors", another "we leave as clowns" #Crimea (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Crimea&src=hash)

But it doesn't look like all the invaders are that happy about it either.

From the Mark Lowen twitter feed
#Putin (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Putin&src=hash) says no Russian troops but I spoke to 1 at #Bakhchisarai (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Bakhchisarai&src=hash) base who said he was. "What we're doing isnt right but I'm following orders"

[SASless]

"What we're doing isnt right but I'm following orders"


How many of us have ever thought that at some point in our careers?:uhoh:

[rh200]

How many of us have ever thought that at some point in our careers?
Yep it was a point I made on the Aus forum on why Its usually a good reason to have ex military as Governer generals. Basically doing your duty regardless of if you think its right or wrong. Of course theirs always an extreme limit.

This on the legitimacy and events of what happened to their previous leader. Simple and to the point.

Setting the Record Straight on Ukraine (March 4, 2014) | Embassy of the United States Moscow, Russia (http://moscow.usembassy.gov/settingrecordstraight.html#.UxcgmMUvCa0.twitter)

[TEEEJ]

That guy in the surplus store must be doing a roaring trade! He must have a large stock of Lynx and Tiger? Even the Russian Defence Minister doesn't know how the 'self defence forces' got hold of them. :rolleyes:

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday denied that Russian forces are currently deployed in Ukraine's Crimea region and said that video footage showing Russian license plates on the military vehicles was "complete nonsense."

Shoigu responded to journalists' questions Wednesday by saying that he did not know how the unidentified forces came to possess the Lynx and Tiger armored cars that are used by the Russian military.

Shoigu, Lavrov Deny that Crimean Forces are Russian | The Moscow Times (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/shoigu-lavrov-deny-that-crimean-forces-are-russian/495675.html)

Photos of Russian hardware in Crimea nothing but provocation – Russia's Defense Minister

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has dismissed as nothing but a provocation the alleged photos and videos in mass media of Russian military hardware in Crimea. "Of course, it’s a provocation," Shoigu told reporters on Wednesday. "Pure rubbish," he said, commenting on the allegations.

Shoigu also noted that there was no information that people blocking Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea had received modern weaponry, including Tigr and Rys personnel armored carriers. "I do not have any idea about this," the minister said.

Photos of Russian hardware in Crimea nothing but provocation ? Russia's Defense Minister - News - Russia - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Vi (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_05/Photos-of-Russian-hardware-in-Crimea-nothing-but-provocation-Russias-Defense-Minister-6693/)

[Ronald Reagan]

Kiev snipers not hired by Yanukovich - leaked EU's Ashton phone tape
http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/


Most interesting


Listen to the tape!


Its also interesting to hear the Estonian Minister refer to some journalists with him seeing an MP being beaten up outside the parliament! Likely to ensure they are voting the 'right' way!

[GlobalNav]

I don't grasp how someone, non-military, gets close enough to these guys to take such a photograph or series of them, so close up and detailed enough to read the details. I can understand that an intelligence operative might have the skills and cajones for such an achievement but a mere civilian, even a journalist?

[Ronald Reagan]

'Behind snipers not Yanukovich but somebody from new coalition' - Ashton's leaked phone tape - YouTube (http://youtu.be/vEJFp0lUIQg)

Estonia confirms authenticity of Paet-Ashton conversation on Kiev snipers - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_05/Estonia-confirms-authenticity-of-Paet-Ashton-conversation-on-Kiev-snipers-0339/)

[NutLoose]

Its also interesting to hear the Estonian Minister refer to some journalists with him seeing an MP being beaten up outside the parliament! Likely to ensure they are voting the 'right' way!

Not the dreaded "I wasn't there, but I know a chap who knows a chap who saw a chap, so it must be true" scenario...

[Danny42C]

"I shall do such things......what they are yet I know not......but they shall be the Terrors of the Earth". (King Lear).

[TEEEJ]

Footage of Ukrainians flying out from Crimea at following link. Even a Be-12 Mail flying boat managed to make it out!

Ukraine: UN Envoy Threatened By Armed Mob (http://news.sky.com/story/1221142/ukraine-un-envoy-threatened-by-armed-mob)

[Lonewolf_50]

Reaction of the Western Powers.
"I shall do such things......what they are yet I know not......but they shall be the Terrors of the Earth". (King Lear).

Please, no! Not another strongly worded memo! :eek:
Anything but that! :uhoh:

[TEEEJ]

GlobalNav wrote,

I don't grasp how someone, non-military, gets close enough to these guys to take such a photograph or series of them, so close up and detailed enough to read the details. I can understand that an intelligence operative might have the skills and cajones for such an achievement but a mere civilian, even a journalist?

There is footage of journalists going right up to these soldiers and trying to engage them in conversation. Nothing remarkable about someone taking such an image. It is all about image resolution these days and even with a basic camera the image can be zoomed into. The close in image appear to be a crop of the larger photo.

[NutLoose]

The only people seeming to be doing well out of this are the Russians and interflora...

What a spineless bunch of pen pushers we have running the western Governments today, one would doubt Reagan, Kennedy or Thatcher would have fallen over backwards to appease the Russians like this bunch.
All well and good having a meeting, but if the Russians do not turn up, as indeed they didn't, it just makes them all look foolish and Hauge a bigger prat than normal.

[GlobalNav]

NL. I won't dispute the "spineless pen-pushers" characterization. Trouble is they are exactly the kind of "leaders" who put our precious men and women into harm's way and get nothing for it while they pretend not to be spineless. Most of them never wore the uniform and some who did, did not keep faith with their fellows in arms.

There are real dangers here, and not just for the underdog Ukrainians. So we need to sort out where our true national security interests lie and not ignore them. We must secure our national interests, militarily if necessary, but let's make sure our own men and women are not wasted on the altar of good intentions and poll numbers.

Politicians on both sides of the aisle are clamoring for press attention and all too easily say we must "do something" based on highly speculative and optimistic notions of the "certain" outcome.

[NutLoose]

I understand that, but I still feel they should have called his bluff early on, the "we will stand back and not get involved" sent the wrong message at the outset which gave him carte blanche to carry on.
One feels the minor incursions at the start into the Government buildings and the airport were to test the water to see what the response would be without committing forces in number. Failure to react gave him the green light to invade, and all the follow up rhetoric about marching into East Ukraine to protect the area were just a ploy to draw the worlds attention away from Crimea, pulling back his troops post exercise stating he would not move into East Ukraine was probably what he had planned in the first place having attained his objectives... And the west just stood by and let it hapoen.

[Ronald Reagan]

To be honest NutLoose, how many British people care? I would imagine very few people would be willing to risk war with Russia when a number of people in certain parts of the Ukraine seem to want Russian troops there anyhow. The so called Kiev government are of dubious legitimacy. Its likely in our interests to keep out of it and to not upset the economic apple cart with Russia! I would imagine our economic relationship with Russia is far more important to the UK than our economic relationship with Ukraine.

[NutLoose]

It's not about caring, it's about what is morally right and the legality of agreements we signed to ensure the disposal of the Ukrainian nuclear weapon stockpile, that made the world a safer place but we gave obligations to protect their sovereignty after they gave away that protection. One thinks the chances of Putin doing this if they still had their nuclear weapons would have been negligible.
You say most protesters are for it, the problem with that statement is those Ukrainians against it are probably petrified to go out in public, look what happened to the UN Envoy, also they are not Russians, simply Russian speaking Ukrainians that have been given Russian passports to justify the action as far as I can read into it.

I'm problem wrong, but that's how I read it.

[Melchett01]

I still feel they should have called his bluff early on, the "we will stand back and not get involved" sent the wrong message at the outset which gave him carte blanche to carry on.

I suspect there are many calculations at play here that have led to the West's apparent intransigence. The first uncomfortable question is was the Yanukovych regime legitimately elected? If so, then how do we feel about its effectively being deposed? Or looking at it another way, if come 2017 Cameron is re-elected and then decides not only to not hold a referendum on EU membership, but actually strengthens and deepens our relationship with the EU contrary to public opinion, would we be right to force him out outside of an election?

But putting politics and ethics to one side, I suspect a large degree of pragmatism is at play as well - especially in Whitehall's calculations (after all, isn't that what Realist foreign policy is effectively all about?)

1. London as a major financial centre with I suspect large amounts of Russian money invested, either through commerce, banks or the PCL property market.

2. The UK's reliance on gas from that region. The govt have arguably got off lightly with a relatively mild winter that has not tested our limited gas supplies & reserves. From a consumer perspective, this has probably contributed to relatively stable wholesale prices, so best not do anything too drastic in case it forces prices up, thereby impacting on inflation figures and the fragile economic recovery.

3. Finally - has anybody looked at a map of the overland route for equipment coming out of Afghanistan? Just how much do we plan to bring back overland coming through Russia and / or its territories or area of influence? Given the lack of cash in Defence, we can't afford to not bring a lot of it back, and as we lack the sort of organic stragegic AT fleet required to do air en masse, then overland is probably at least a consideration at the moment. Best not rock that boat too much - remember the chaos when Pakistan closed the GLOC?

[awblain]

I'm not sure that leaving Afghanistan across the Oxus is quite the final photograph anyone would want to see spread around - at least there were no photos of the Victorians exiting into Pakistan after unsuccessfully invading Afghanistan.

For a full historical tour, perhaps some materiel could return via Crimea?

[ORAC]

Ukraine is Putin’s, not Russia’s, war (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ukraine-is-putins-not-russias-war/2014/03/04/f587b698-a337-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html)

[SASless]

Folks,

Do get a cup of coffee and wake up!

This whole thing started immediately after Welfare Man took office.....remember terminating the Missile Shield for Poland? Remember the "If I talk nice....they will love me" campaign? Remember the infamous "Reset Button"? Remember the bowing and scraping to the Muslims around the World? Remember the "Red Lines" fiasco? Remember the cutback in our Military Forces? Remember the "Leading from Behind" stupidity? Remember the support of the Muslim Brotherhood? Don't forget how the Syrian thing turned out!

Face it.....we have a hopeless Community Organizer sitting in the Big Chair....and he is as Cowboys would say....."All Hat and No Cattle!"

Also....understand we have another three Years of this Clown to endure!

Russia was seen as being a threat by previous administrations as were the Chinese and Iranians along with the pip squeak in North Korea......yet Welfare Man and his gang of Loons refused to understand or accept that.

China has turned from their Economy....and are now investing in their Military and in time will have a Military that will be a very real threat and dominant power in that part of the World.

Russia will continue with its expansion back into what were USSR Territories as best they can.

Iran will continue to push their Nuclear Agenda.

There is nothing that can be done to force them to cease and desist.

We can make token efforts but in the end....the best we can do is put a small speed bump or two in their way that will at best slow them down for extremely short periods of time.

At this time of great tensions in the World....we continue to cut our Military....refuse to become Energy Indpendent....and waste Trillions of Dollars on Social Welfare Spending that is only intended to keep the Progressives in power.

We are going to reap a terrible harvest one day out of all this.

[t43562]

1) I think worries about gas supplies are somewhat less important now than before. We could probably start importing from the US. So that line of whinging and fear-mongering may not be a good enough excuse.

2) If Russian money is invested in the west then good - lets see how many Russians want to bring it back to the 'safety' of Russia. In any case they are not our major investors so that line of excuses is pretty thin too.

3) They forget that the very fact that they compare personalities is an indication of an unhealthy situation. " They find fault with men who are actually constrained by the will of other people and cannot ponce around to the same degree as the fellows who have whipped their own people into submission.

4) It's really easy for people to argue about what is morally right by comparing what happens in place X with what happens in the west because all you need to do is call someone a president and his gang a parliament and suddenly he is democratic. e.g. Mugabe in power for 33 years entirely democratically if you want to believe it. In general people who argue "if they did this, then he can do that" usually make 2 mistakes:

a) They criticise the west for doing X. When Their favourite dictator does something bad they don't criticise him but say that it's ok because someone in the West "did the same thing." In other words they see the sauce,goose,gander thing as a one-way street.

b) They forget exactly what their favourite dictator does not forget: after the moral argument about who is right in the end we must do what is best for ourselves moral or not. The best thing to do may not be chickening out and hiding it might be to demonstrate a lack of fear which encourages our allies, discourages our enemies and allows us to keep problems far away rather than allowing them to get ever closer.

[Lonewolf_50]

... agreements we signed to ensure the disposal of the Ukrainian nuclear weapon stockpile, that made the world a safer place but we gave obligations to protect their sovereignty after they gave away that protection. One thinks the chances of Putin doing this if they still had their nuclear weapons would have been negligible
This is a matter of practical importance.

Not supporting those who voluntarily relenquished their N deterrent sends another signal of "you are only safe from the Powers if you have a nuke."

Interesting twist on the NPT and its ragged implementation and application.

[Caspian237]

Putin wants a referendum in the Crimea and perhaps other Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine. I think it is a wonderful concession to democratic values. Bravo Putin.

While we're in such a liberal mood why not hold simultaneous referendums in the Russian Republics of Chechnya and Ingushetia?

Oh, Right. Self determination in Russia only works if you're determined to be Russian. Otherwise it's the old jack boot and rifle butt treatment.

[SADDLER]

Sasless has hit the nail on the head.

[Mil-26Man]

I'm curious Ronald, as you appear to have completely bought into the Russian side of this conflict, do you believe that the 'gunmen' on the streets of Crimea are Russian soldiers (as the rest of the world does) or a local self-defence force with no ties whatsoever to Moscow (as Putin says they are)?

I'm just wondering how far your credulity stretches.

[GreenKnight121]

RR has been "on the Russian side" of every discussion on this board since he arrived - no matter the circumstances, facts, or who is opposed to Russia in the case.

He has openly stated that the people of the nations of the former Warsaw Pact do NOT have the right to make alliances with western Europe if that upsets the Russians - and similar comments.


One wonders why he lives in Cornwall (if he actually does) instead of in the nation he so obviously wishes to "win" over everyone else.

[Heathrow Harry]

"we have a hopeless Community Organizer sitting in the Big Chair.."

a man who has launched far more drone strikes on terrorists than that idiot who previously had the job

I'm still amazed that SASLess and Co seem to be saying we should go to war over Ukraine

[Mil-26Man]

"we have a hopeless Community Organizer sitting in the Big Chair.."

a man who has launched far more drone strikes on terrorists than that idiot who preciously had the job


No, I'm afraid that SASLess won't let Obama take credit for those. Just as in the Bin Laden raid, the 'scores' are down to those who went before him, but the 'losses' are down to Obama.

[GreenKnight121]

Just like the Democrats blaming Bush for an attack that happened 7 1/2 months after he took office, but refusing to place any blame on Clinton despite most of the intel failures happening during his time in the office, and despite the CIA director being Clinton's man*.

Its called "party before country", and has become the norm for both major parties in American politics



* George Tenet was officially appointed Director of Central Intelligence on July 11, 1997, after a unanimous confirmation vote in the Senate. While the Director of Central Intelligence has been replaced by an incoming administration since Jimmy Carter replaced DCI George H. W. Bush, Tenet served through the end of the Clinton Administration and well into the term of George W. Bush. Tenet submitted his resignation to President Bush on June 3, 2004.

[Mil-26Man]

Its called "party before country", and has become the norm for both major
parties in American politics


Not a peculairly American condition unfortunately, although you do seem to suffer more from it than most.

[skua]

Very good article in today's FT by John Gapper setting out the most subtle but potentially very effective way of retribution. It is here:
Punishing a few oligarchs in London is not enough - FT.com (http://tinyurl.com/m38xagy)

[NutLoose]

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/3/5/1394051994614/bc6ed6bc-dba7-4eb0-aded-84ea87fc8281-620x372.jpeg

"So Putin said, F*ck you America, and I said, here, let me hold it for you"

Picture from the Guardian

[rh200]

I'm still amazed that SASLess and Co seem to be saying we should go to war over Ukraine

Can't speak for them, but I'm sure no one is saying go to war with Russia, just be prepared to. He's a classic bully, until he knows there's a cost he doesn't want to pay he will keep bullying.

I'd be fairly sure just planting a few troops one ship and a couple of aircraft in harms way would call his bluff.

[SASless]

Heathrow Harry.....as Ronaldo Magnus kept saying to Jimmy Carter....."There you go again!".

I defy you to quote any of my posts where I have advocated going to War with Russia/Putin......everyone of my posts states clearly we are going to do nothing because there is nothing we can do.....and "nothing" would include going to war.

Until you can....for the umpteenth time.....quit trying to speak for me and stick to your own comments.

Don't you get weary and at least a wee bit embarrassed at being told this so many times.

Debate or keep looking stupid.....your choice.

[dctyke]

Would be interesting if the trapped navy ships took a good few reporters onboard and did a live broadcast sailing out of port. No way could the russians say it was locals on the blockade ships, would they attempt to stop them I wonder and under what pretext?

[skua]

I think the reporters would need more than their usual blue flak jackets - a few stiff vodkas first, at the very least!

[Pontius Navigator]

Crisis, what crisis? It is now page 17 in the Torygraph under World News, ie nothing to do with us.

[SASless]

Kissinger weighs in on the "Crisis".

Henry Kissinger: To settle the Ukraine crisis, start at the end - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html)

[GlobalNav]

The good doctor is a voice reason and wisdom.

[Rosevidney1]

I suggest that anyone wanting to know a few pertinent facts about the problem could do a lot worse than visiting the Anna Raccoon website. It has certainly made me think!

[TEEEJ]

The video of the Ukrainians flying out of Crimea is now on You Tube. Beriev Be-12 Mail seen at 0:35.

8oZgKftXD2I&feature=related

Four Ukrainian MI-8 helicopters and three planes managed to escape from a naval air base in Crimea on Tuesday (March 4) which was later allegedly taken over by Russian troops. The aircraft took off from a base in Saki in western Crimea after reportedly being offered to report to new Crimean government.They safely landed in mainland Ukraine near the town of Mykolaiv.

Beriev Be-12 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_Be-12)

One of the old Ukrainian Tu-95MS Bear H is now up for sale!

TU-95MS - Soviet Bomber | eBay (http://cgi.ebay.ca/ebaymotors/TU-95MS-Soviet-Bomber-/121288805711?forcev4exp=true#ht_4766wt_1399)

The Aviationist » You can buy a Ukrainian Tu-95 Strategic Bomber on eBay right now (http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/06/tu-95-bear-on-ebay/)

[Ronald Reagan]

Ron Paul: US has no right to lecture on Ukraine because of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya - YouTube (http://youtu.be/n58IwCNw--0)

[Mil-26Man]

We can all play the lists game Ronald - Georgia, Chechnya....

[Lonewolf_50]

Ron Paul may have a case in re Iraq.

He does not have a case in re Afghanistan.

Libya? I have mixed feelings about that deal on a lot of levels, but Rons reductionist attitudes are about one briefing slide deep: neo-isolationism at best.

[Ronald Reagan]

Lonewolf_50, I think Ron Paul is a very good man. A very moral man and one of huge integrity. I think the US does need to take a more isolationist approach on most issues, only getting involved in things which directly threaten the US itself. If I were you I would try to be as self sufficient as a country as possible, small government, sticking to the constitution, maintain a large and powerful military for defence but generally keep out of things.


I wish my country would take such an approach!

[Mil-26Man]

I think the US does need to take a more isolationist approach on most issues, only getting involved in things which directly threaten the US itself. If I were you I would try to be as self sufficient as a country as possible, small government, sticking to the constitution, maintain a large and powerful military for defence but generally keep out of things.

You could say the same for Russia.



I wish my country would take such an approach!


Which country is that Ronald?

[Lonewolf_50]

Ronald R, the US of A was built as an integral part of global trade, as far back as 1607 and the Jamestown economy. Isolationism is not a valid policy position as a major international trade participant now. How one should pursue one's interests and keep trade lines safe is a matter of degree, not kind.

Where one has trade one often has interests.

I'll go no further down that rat hole. The discussion here regards the Ukraine. Since the US and Russia BOTH signed off on the security guarantee for Ukraine in 1994, both parties have an expressed interest in Ukraine's future.

[Ronald Reagan]

Lonewolf_50, one can look at the 1994 security guarantee for Ukraine as simply a con to get them to give up their nukes, nothing more, nothing less.


Mil-26Man, the places you mention are on the doorstep of Russia, locations Russia is justified in being involved in. When it comes to things like ourselves in places like Iraq and Libya there is a hell of a lot less justification! Not exactly in our own back yard, no real threat to us, the latter had actually come onside in recent years, but still the west had to go and attack the place. Today both those places are far worse than before.

[NutLoose]

I still think the inactivity of the UK and the USA in reneging on their commitments to protect the sovereignty of the Ukraine will have far reaching consequences into the future.

To be honest I just wish the UK would stop putting their nose into these things and signing up as guarantors as if we were still a World power, we are not and haven't been for a long time, to put the UK forces into context of how small we have become military wise, the British forces that surrendered in Singapore during WW2 were comparable to the size of the three full time UK forces after the latest cuts come into effect.

But to get back to the far reaching consequences I mentioned.
In a world where the likes of Pakistan hold nuclear weapons and the fragility in that region, and those countries that aspire to them such as North Korea or Iran, the bargaining chip of assurances given by the USA etc have now been shown to be worthless rhetoric and as such not worth the paper they were written on, which country in their right mind would surrender their nuclear weapon capability now on an agreement from the US or others.

This must now also include none nuclear countries who have mutual defence agreements in place, they now know that they mean nothing, and so do the threats to those countries. And that is a consequence that will have far reaching effects into the future, and just made the world a more dangerous place..

Well that's my view.

[awblain]

Ron Paul has no ability to lecture anyone about anything, except perhaps having children and grandchildren that are even less impressive than he is.

Has he accidentally wandered into another stopped-clock moment regarding obtaining legal justification for war? It would be interesting if he's accepted that the UN is more real than the tooth fairy.

[Bastardeux]

I still think the inactivity of the UK and the USA in reneging on their commitments to protect the sovereignty of the Ukraine will have far reaching consequences into the future.

One of the rather more enlightening consequences seems to be that every day this drags on, more politicians are coming to the awakening that political influence, in situations like this, comes hand in hand with military muscle. Will be interesting to see the effect this will have on SDSR15...especially if it drags on and diplomatic relations continue to deteriorate.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Remind me; was the recently deposed Government democratically elected? Is the interim boss fellah a democratically appointed Head of State? I only ask because I think that it's rather important to know and understand these things.

A riot is an ugly thing.

[Lonewolf_50]

1994 security guarantee for Ukraine as simply a con to get them to give up their nukes,
Ronald R, if you have ever had the bad luck to be in the business of handling and having to account for, and keep secure, nuclear weapons, you might understand why the folks in the newly independent Ukraine in the early 90's might have been very interested in getting that nightmare off of their hands.

It may also be as you say.
I don't pretend to know what went on behind the scenes.

A riot is an ugly thing.
The punch line to that joke is "So let's have one!"

(Young Frankenstein: Inspector Kemp (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0550318/?ref_=tt_trv_qu): A riot is an ungly thing... undt, I tink, that it is chust about time ve had vun. )

[rh200]

Crisis, what crisis? It is now page 17 in the Torygraph under World News, ie nothing to do with us.

Exactly, as every thing these days its the media that is dictating the significance of the situation.

Remind me; was the recently deposed Government democratically elected? Is the interim boss fellah a democratically appointed Head of State? I only ask because I think that it's rather important to know and understand these things.

Shouldn't confuse the systems of government and due process to the ones that you think are moral. There is significant debate on the legalitys of what has happened in their government system. Until someone can come up with the answers to the document put out by the US state department on that, then it seems legal.

In essence it appears that the timing of specific events may have a role in whether it was legal or not.

[Mil-26Man]

the places you mention are on the doorstep of Russia, locations Russia is
justified in being involved in.


No Ronald, they are sovereign nations that Russia is not justified in being invoved in. Being next door, does not give you carte-blanche to roll your troops over the border anytime you feel like it.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

rh200. I doubt if I've ever been guilty of confusing morality with legality. How about you?

[t43562]

How Vladimir Putin Stashed Away A Secret $70 Billion Personal Fortune | Celebrity Net Worth (http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/how-vladimir-putin-stashed-away-a-secret-70-billion-personal-fortune/)

It's interesting how the watches are the giveaway.

[Courtney Mil]

Being next door, does not give you carte-blanche to roll your troops over the border anytime you feel like it.

Yeah, but it makes it a lot easier.

[NutLoose]

12:27:
Ukrainian border guards say Russia now has 30,000 soldiers inside Crimea. Serhiy Stakhov, an aide to the head of the border guards service, tells Reuters the figure is an estimate and includes both troops who arrived since last week and Russia's Black Sea Fleet, permanently based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol

BBC news channel

which is nigh on the total RAF strength

[Willard Whyte]

Should also 'encourage' any floating voters in the forthcoming referendum...

[Hangarshuffle]

US sends fighter jets to Baltic and boosts pressure on Putin over Ukraine - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10682004/US-sends-fighter-jets-to-Baltic-and-boosts-pressure-on-Putin-over-Ukraine.html)


Some sort of visible reaction from POTUS. F15 and F16 aircraft deploy to Poland.
Piss poor-this doesn't achieve anything except prove how off the pace POTUS is. Everyone entirely missed the opportunity before the Russian deployment.
2 cents and all its worth, like everyone else.

[Lonewolf_50]

In re net worth and Putin's watch.

Uh, how is that watch worth $150,000? :confused: Best I can guess, it is a black leather strapped version of this watch (http://www.dexclusive.com/patek-philippe-5123r-001-calavatra-mens-watch.html). Granted, I can't get that good of a look at it. Even so, I don't get the whole "$25,000 watch" thing, but then I don't have a net worth in nine figures. :8

While I suspect he's got a bit of coin stashed away, (8, 9, 10 figures, serious money) the article in the link appears to be a bit sensationalist, and I suspect inaccurate. What does seem to be true is that he's not reporting quite as transparently as our own president does.

[awblain]

That's good news for the future of the world - Patek Philippe's ads say that you don't own one of their watches, you just look after it for future generations.

I've seen less tasteful bling hanging off felons.

[Danny42C]

"All power comes out of the barrel of a gun". (reputedly: Chairman Mao).

Might has always been Right, and ever will be so.

Mr Putin is welcome to his watch. I have a little quartz clock (£2.50) on my bedside table. It keeps better time than the Longines on my wrist has ever done. For this I paid (70 years ago), in rupees, the present-day equivalent of £600. :(

[Hangarshuffle]

Putin's won then? Russia wins. Job done?
Got the Crimea back (from the Ukraine) - tick.
Ensured security of its southern flank (nautically at least) - tick.
Endured nothing further than a vocal response from the "west" -tick.
Demonstrated that President Potus Bam Bam looks even more miniscule, less of a world leader than even I imagined (his level of response has been truly tiny - on the UK media at least) - tick.
Raised Russian esteem and morale - tick.


There were a few rumblings today in the UK's Daily Telegraph newspaper about it all, but this isn't 1968, or 1979 or 1981.
Is it "job done"?


Reading back to the start of the thread 20th Feb I was prophesying full on Ukrainian civil war. This hasn't happened, since Russia's intervention things have been rather more peaceful. Well I was totally wrong to date.
Is it possible for anyone on Prune to give Russia and Putin any credit, at all?

[racedo]

11 days later is a long time between comment on threads...

Some of had a Mod holiday :(

[melmothtw]

Some of had a Mod holiday :(


Yes, it was a real Mod Massacre alright. I was one of a number taking an enforced leave of absence from this particular thread the last few days/weeks :ok:

[t43562]

I do wonder, however, if the Ukranians haven't given themselves a better guarantee of never having a pro-Russian president again? A price to be paid for slicing off some of the electorate?

No war, Putins's true colours demonstrated to the world. The reasons to get over the dependence on gas and oil made completely obvious to the EU electorate and some Europeans thinking twice about defence cuts. It should be a bit easier to convince people to pay for wind farms and nuclear plants and to accept fracking now

With luck there will be a new, mostly intact, EU member or at least EEA member and the chance of a lot of economic development for the people living in it. The poor fellows left inside their Russian ghetto will be thinking about changing their citizenship and moving out to wave their flags somewhere else.

Perhaps NATO will be able to start using Antonovs? I am sure that calculations along these lines have been done already hence the lack of response.