Light at the end???

[aviatter]

First of all a disclaimer...I am in no way a financial or business analyst and the following is just my personal opinion.

Is it me or does it seem like the economy is already on its way back. Many share prices (even those of the airlines) are back to pre 9/11 levels and indeed many companies here in North America are still meeting or beating expections for profits for the year.

Add to this the announcements from the likes of AA (pilot layoffs on hold) and Air France, etc... that they will still make a small profit despite the terrorist attacks, and I think we just might be seeing a turn-around. As well, traffic levels are returning to normal much quicker than many people thought.

Also, I recently went shopping for a new computer this past weekend and I literally had to squeeze my way into the stores. And people weren't just browsing, there were lineups at the cashiers like I haven't seen in a long time. Car sales are drastically up over here as well since the major manufacturers have offered zero percent financing.

Anyway, all I'm saying is that the signs I see seem to indicate a recovery even though the press seems to think otherwise.

Any comments?

aviatter

[FlyNSmile]

At this time of year it is impossible to gauge the Airline economy, as this is always historically "A slow Down". By the spring life hopefully will be back to normal and companies with good management and infrastructure will pull through.
I just hope the new RVSM rules don’t give the final blow to the smaller European operators.


:D

[Mentaleena]

aviatter

You're of course correct. Most European flights have not suffered half as bad as was predicted. Even BA shorthaul flights have been doing well, as well as the franchise operators'.
What is happening however is the overall kneejerk reactions of certain airline beancounters are still having their effects.
They are as out of phase with everything as the average temperature of the Med compared to the prevailing season. They're LAGGING BEHIND.
So even if what you're saying is correct - it will take some time before these idiots get their act together. Not to mention the "opportunities" for them to make some cuts under the current climate.

[Raas767]

I think it is a little early to talk about airline recovery in the U.S. Right now AA is losing between 10-15 million dollars a day. This is not sustainable even for an airline with the cash reserves that AA have. Things will get better, but it will be a while.

[Ace Rimmer]

According to AEA figures pax numbers are again heading upwards but the real question has to be what's going on with yields. Mrs Rimmer and I are heading to NY for Xmas shopping later this week and I don't think UA is getting much yield out of our £150 tickets.